Thursday, 13 February 2020

PREMIER’S MITIGATION PLAN A BRAZEN "SNOW JOB"

Preamble
A long time ago, I heard someone say: never argue with the logic of a dreamer. The implicit warning is that there is no answer to nonsense. 

“Dreamer” can have many connotations; the reader likely needs no instruction on context. Danny Williams and Ed Martin talked up the promise of dividends from the Muskrat Falls Project even as costs sky-rocketed. Many rightly called it “Voodoo Economics”. Even then, others used it as an argument in favour of project sanction, all the while failing to understand that they had to pay those “dividends”. While Martin stuck to this line, most Muskrat watchers assumed that, as silly as it seemed, he, and his political boosters, were just trying to retain some dignity having made a series of horribly bad judgments. Not surprisingly, I was shocked when Ed Martin actually made a case for why those cost overruns were beneficial in his final submission to the Muskrat Falls Inquiry.  


I refer you to Paragraph 277 of the Submission for Edmund Martin by his solicitor, Harold Smith, in which he argues that cost overruns lead to more equity and hence, more dividends. The reasoning follows this logic: More dividends is a good thing. Ergo, cost overruns must also be a good thing. The logic assumes that some deus ex machina force is at work, almost like Adam Smith’s “invisible” hand, turning costs into revenues. Of course, it is nonsense. If costs exceed the ability of the purchase to pay, there will be no demand, no revenues, and no dividends. If there were dividends they would come from us, from one pocket going into another. Yet, this was the case being addressed to Commissioner, Richard Leblanc, by the man, alongside Danny Williams, who divined the Muskrat Falls Project. This is the relevant Section by Ed Martin:

277. The capital cost increases mean that following construction, the Province will have
contributed more equity than originally anticipated. As a result of the built-in return on
equity, the Province will have a significant increase in income associated with its increased
equity contribution. It may choose to use a portion of this income as a source of funding
for rate mitigation, or for another purpose.
The Province could also reduce its return on
equity for the Muskrat Falls assets to substantially lower rates indirectly. This return on
equity is built into the rates being paid by ratepayers, in effect the ratepayers are paying
a return to themselves as Nalcor is a Crown corporation which is owned by the people of

the Province. We are paying ourselves rent to live in our own house. ("Red" bolding added)
- Edmund Martin 
   Final Written Submission of Edmund Martin, Commission of Inquiry

Introduction
Premier Ball is building his cure for Muskrat Falls upon quicksand. The dividends never did exist, not even at DG3 cost estimates, and certainly not at today’s costs. How can you monetize dividends that never existed and never will exist? Why is Ball drawing upon the mythology designed by Ed Martin, which is at the core of the flawed business model for Muskrat Falls?


One can only assume that Ed Martin and Danny Williams are now advising Premier Dwight Ball. Imagine that the Liberty Consulting Group, Synapse Energy Consulting and the PUB spent an entire year pouring over options to “mitigate” 23 cent power and all missed it! Or, did they?

Moody’s or Premier Ball: whom do you believe?
Just hours after the PUB released its Report confirming that the Muskrat Falls Project will require $400 -600 million annual subsidy, beginning in 2021, in order to achieve the Government’s objective of capping power rates at 13.5 cents per KWh, Premier Dwight Ball was ready with the magic that the PUB failed to deliver.

The Premier maintained his promise to cap the rate and assured everyone, and repeated the same the  day after on Paddy Daley’s VOCM Open Line, that “this will not be on the ratepayers of this province.” Ball may as well have waved his wand and wiped out the entire Provincial Debt at the same time!   

This was, of course, politics at its worse. It’s never pretty when in front of a “full court press” the public are told a blatant untruth. It is unfortunate that the Government of Canada is a willing participant in the deception, too.

Moody’s Investor Service, the Agency rating NL’s capacity for additional debt, did not join the party.  VOCM reported an interview with Michael Yake, President and Senior Credit Officer, commenting on the rate control plan to the effect that he “is not convinced there will be enough money for Nalcor to manage the operation.” 


He is someone that the public needs to hear from; they – and members of the media - should take warning from Yake’s remarks. 
Last year, Moody’s lowered the province’s credit rating. While they raised our economic forecast from negative to stable, the Premier’s mitigation plan may well have them rethink the Province’s fiscal competence knowing, as they do, that what Ball and Seamus O’Regan just announced was a fiction and that the “mitigation” funding has to be borrowed either under a Federal Guarantee or through the Province’s own Bond issue. Notably, Ball is only relieving ratepayers of the dividends for ten years. Then they will have to be ratcheted back up - if the scheme can survive that long.
Yake explained “that the announcement to defer sinking fund payments and cost overrun escrow accounts payments lowers the necessary long-term return on Muskrat Falls’ operations.” Note that he said those returns are “necessary”, not just “desirable”.

Premier Ball would have you believe that his plan “will work just by decreasing the dividends” due Nalcor under the original Power Purchase Agreement. On Daly's Open Line Show, Ball made much of the dividend issue telling listeners that “we are not giving them to Nalcor…we’re taking back those enormous dividends that weren’t required” and leaving them with ratepayers. Possibly, the Premier understood not a word of the plan; by now, however, his advisors ought to have counselled him and a retraction already sent out. Not having done so, the certainty that he is engaging in a fiction will have to stand.

Let’s begin with a simple analysis. The PUB reported three essential facts. Under the Government’s plan, the cost of power per KWh will be 13.5 cents and the current average rate for power is 13.06 cents per KWh. They also noted that an increase to ratepayers of one cent per KWh represents revenue of $66 million. Under the PUB’s best case scenario, the mitigation shortfall is just over $400 million. If you believe that an increase of less than one cent per KWh makes the Muskrat problem go away all I can say is, god bless your innocence.

Let’s get realistic. The total revenue requirement - on the low side – to service Muskrat’s operating, management (O&M) and financing costs are $725.9 million in 2021. Changing the financing structure of the project, as the Government proposes, does not change the requirement for interest to be paid on the debt, dividends to Emera, Innu payments and O&M costs. All those costs are as real on Monday as they were on Friday when the PUB Report came down. They can only disappear if the Feds put FREE MONEY on the table, making them go away. O’Regan offered nothing of the kind. In fact, O’Regan put not one dollar of Federal money on the table. Therefore, only revenue from export power, lay-off notices at Nalcor, the small rate increase to 13.5 cents, shuttering Holyrood, and a few other potential savings, brings the unaccounted-for revenue requirement down to just over $400 million, disregarding the uncertainty associated with those other revenue streams.

The Province is proposing, with Federal complicity, to ignore the obligation of receiving revenue for depreciation on the Muskrat Falls Project and debt retirement – the reference is actually to “Sinking Funds”.  But those requirements don’t just disappear. All the Feds have agreed to is to permit the Province to defer those obligations. As the initial short-term Bonds mature over the next few years, they will be immediately refinanced causing ZERO debt retirement. 

This failure to account for depreciation and debt retirement "may be worth around $200 million in short term relief", according to guest Blogger PlanetNL, "but this simply escalates interest payments and the deferred debt piles up and remains fully payable later.” This is a very important issue.

The new scheme will also mean that the interest on the provincial government’s $3.8 billion of equity - contributed to the Project from borrowings – will be serviced by you, as taxpayers, to the tune of $100 million annually. Ball's two-part campaign promised that neither ratepayer nor taxpayer will pay for Muskrat. This is one proof that the taxpayer will pay dearly. Who trusts this Premier not to drop the other shoe, too? Will the Liberal Caucus feign ignorance over such a blatant misuse of the public trust as they count the months to the next election?

On a higher level, what this really means is that, beginning in 2020-21, your provincial government is on the hook for at least $400 million in order that its target of 13.5 cent per KWh is met; the Premier can talk about “dividends” until he is blue in the face – there are no dividends for anyone except EMERA of Nova Scotia, who will still be paid.

The other aspect of the Premier’s scheme is his focus on the next 10 years. The Federal Minister of Finance made reference to “monetizing” the LIL assets, but it is still far from clear if the Feds intend to directly “lend” the Province some or all of this $400 million shortfall, annually, using the LIL as security and what the terms of the loan will be. If not the Feds, then who?
If the public who were listening to Seamus O’Regan on Monday wondered what he actually said – and are still wondering – they should not feel as if they missed his message. Seamus had nothing to say; the gibberish was simply the most oblique language that the Federal Finance Department could contrive to make it seem like he was doing something without committing to anything.

Did Premier Ball “lie” when he spoke to the public on Monday? He has certainly been caught in a lie to taxpayers and let's just say his Rate Mitigation Plan appears to be a disgraceful “untruth” taht is still unfolding. The truth ought to have included a simple warning that the shortfall of $400 million may be on the low side considering all the problems that remain with this Project and which threaten the current $12.7 billion estimate. The Pemier might have added that, more than ever, Muskrat threatens our solvency as a Province.

The Government “may” have succeeded in hiding the threat of 20-odd cent KWh power for now, but as the shortfall builds, even assuming commissioning runs smoothly – a long shot at best - higher power rates are a certainty. Indeed, there are a host of threats to the current, sad, status of Muskrat which only future posts can adequately tackle. Then there is Moody’s Mr. Yake who will surely be watching the next two Provincial Budgets.

There is always a political dimension to issues like this one, even if Premier Ball would serve us better if he didn’t try as hard performing for Ed Martin and Danny Williams. This incredible “untruth” may keep the Liberals in power for a while but, uncloaked, their Muskrat Rate Mitigation Plan will bury them, as it has done the Tories.

Monday was not a good day for Newfoundland and Labrador.

96 comments:

  1. UG:

    A couple of notes:
    1) paragraph 277 of the EM submission makes it apparent that the PC government fully intended to develop MF regardless of Federal government support, contractor performance, economics, changing markets etc. It also becomes apparent that the economics for MF were 'low risk' - low risk in that it was fully backed by the public because the government (i.e. sole owner and investor in the developer) has the ability to legislate collection for the public. The sole owner and to whom duty of care extends now becomes important - again, I am not so sure changes to the MF financing restructuring (particularly how it affects NS, NS PUB and Emera) can be enacted without their agreement.

    2) you mention 'Free Money', even Federal ‘donations’ are not 'free' - they are still tax payer monies and more or less the liabilities of MF are just been extended to other Canadian tax payers and this becomes a slippery slope as it does set a provincial bailout precedent. Either way, unless 100% new money from outside the economy is found, MF debt repayment requires a reduction in services.


    The number everybody needs to understand - $500, that is $500/yr is what the cost to every since person in NL (assuming 500k population) for 57yrs to simply cover the $12.7b of MF spent capital, interest payback is another cost ontop of that.

    Also, the FLG isn't that great of a savings – it’s just a 3.5% borrowing rate but I know the savings have been politically claimed to be $1b or more. Maybe some should do the math and understand it is only 2-3% of total project cost - the $1b needs to be compared to the $30b, not the $12.7b capital. So yes, DW / KD etc would have proceeded with MF anyway - 3% cost increase over 57yrs wouldn't have stopped them.


    PENG2

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  2. There are several interesting bits to come from this announcement.

    First, the use of dividends to reduce rates means there is no return for the 3.7 Billion the province has invested in the project through borrowed equity. Thus the province will need to take an impairment on their balance sheet, increasing the net debt by the same about. This will likely have an impact to the provinces credit rating. It will lead to higher borrowing costs.

    Any sort of early funding of future dividends is a major intergenerational penalty. We need to have the current generation pay for this project. Pushing it out only puts more risk to future generations. 13.5 cents is not a realistic target, and it should be 15.6 cents which was originally sold back in 2013 as a absolute basement. This increase should happen over the next 3 years to reduce rate shock.

    What a disaster of public policy.

    Out of interest it is 8 years ago today that Nalcor presented to the PUB

    http://www.pub.nl.ca/applications/MuskratFalls2011/files/presentation/Nalcor-Presentation-Feb13-12.pdf

    What is also lost in all of this rate mitigation discussion is the additional generational capacity which must be added. The PUB has dragged this on for years.

    This project is unparalleled for the transfer of value from NL to the rest of Canada.

    Bring on the commission report

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    1. Anony @ 09:16:

      Being that NL Hydro via Nalcor has a limited rate or return by legislation - can the same analysis of borrowing against dividends be applied to Nalcor as you would for a publicly traded company?

      In the case of Nalcor, I would simply consider dividends as a tax collected by NL Hydro for Nalcor - more or less by reducing the dividends, the Government has just said we wont collect this $XXX from the public via power rates.

      I am not convinced the bonding agencies would consider dividends for a governmental ABC as a traditional asset on the balance sheet - more or less and ABC dividend reduction needs to be considered as a revenue (i.e. less tax collected) reduction for a government.

      PENG2

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  3. Instead of debate on "smoke and mirrors", which is what the government wants to divert attention on the continuance of malfeasance by overpaid Nalco staff, we must demand the promised transparency on actual and rising costs of the Boondoggle. PENG2, what are the arguments now for mothballing the generation? Do you think this is areal consideration?

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    1. Robert @ 09:45:

      I said 4-5yrs ago that likely the best option was to complete (to avoid default, since non-completion wasn't an viable options) and possibly consider purchasing power from HQ to satisfy the Emera contract. I see no reason to go back on this statement yet.


      Also, 31-Oct-2019 the $12.7b cost estimate was confirmed to still be valid - I think I have quoted this to you several times before? Personally, I haven't seen anything arise the past couple years that I could reliably incorporate into a revised cost estimate - I am also assuming SM is more conservative (and knowledgeable in the utility industry) in his estimation, so it needs to be understood that the manner in how the early estimates were developed are diametrically different than how SM does it today and not comparable in accuracy or precision.

      To me, the biggest risk I see to the $12.7b estimate is the timing of the Inquiry - I still see this as upwards of $1b that could be paid out in additional arbitration losses due to the ill-timed public release of information.


      PENG2

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    2. PENG2, So are you now with privileged insider status, going back on our recent conversation, wherein you believed that the estimate to complete, was in the $16B+ range? Why the continued obfuscation regarding this estimate from the Gov'nmt?
      Ball is shadow boxing, while economic strengths, and workers' dreams fade.

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    3. Robert @ 12:28:

      The outcomes of arbitrations, claims settlement, commission issues etc cannot be reliably quantified, in my experience. I have always said $1-1.5b for those costs and I stand by saying that UNTIL substantial completion, that since the above costs(and related issues) cannot be established that the Inquiry was too early.

      So no, my claim(and it is only my opinion) final costs will be in the $15b range.

      PENG2

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    4. PENG2 Some kind of breakdown of your estimated added cost, that you would attribute to the Inquiry, would be appreciated, here on the concerned citizens forum. My personal view is that this is bogus. The essential cause of the Inquiry was directly attributed to evident miss-management of the project, by "Project Manager".

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    5. Robert @ 13:37:

      I will stand by my previous statements - $500-800m will be paid out to Astaldi (among other contractors) based on allegations they will be able to prove. Astaldi et al will be able to prove many allegations because of documents now public since the calling of the Inquiry - like ot or not, the public shot cut their own switch here, and I said this when the Inquiry was called. A construction arbitration isn't like a court hearing with strict rules of evidence - and many in the public dont even realize that the hearings probably wont even be in NL or subjected to NL laws.

      I was also 1 of the one that said the ToR was fine from day 1 - and I stand by that too. Most said LeBlanc couldn't call a forensic Audit - but he did. Many still want criminal charges - but how many have actually read Gomery to see what it cant happen now?

      The only failing in the Inquiry is that its analysis is going to be limited to what happened before September 2019 - that is a shame, but what the public wanted.

      PENG2

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    6. PENG2, they say the measure of intelligence is the requirement to have an open mind, that is, with debate and argument one may sometimes see he/she is wrong, and so can change their mind.
      There are only a few of us that are perfect and right all the time (joke joke).
      But since your appearance on UG, what matters have you changed you mind on, that you think you have been wrong on? I think you budged on a couple?
      What of Stan finishing strong?
      Winston Adams

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    7. PENG2, I am puzzled when you say the Mitigation of rates (Synapse, PUB, ETC is of no value as only new dollars count: such as more exports sales.
      Synapse proposals is to maximize the use of available energy, flatten the winter peak load hump, to permit electricification and EVs etc. This permits increased revenue signifiacntly compared to poor energy management, as at present. And the increased electricity revenue comes from a change from that spent on oil and gas consumption to electricity consumption. It is like switching from tenderloin beef to pork or chicken for your meat, to stay within your budget, and probably more healthy. Application of Synapse in 2010 could have voided MFs, but even now has value, as a partial benefit, even though it is not new dollars. But you disagree?
      Winston

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    8. WA @ 16:16 / 16:33:

      I have no issue moving my opinion – but I do need some factual evidence to sway me. To date, I have seen little presented to refute my claims of why the Inquiry is ill-timed, why the FLG didn’t enable MF or why rate mitigation is political pandering. These are just a few items I have posted an opinion on.

      As for the Synapse suggestion of maximizing available energy – that fine and well, but the end effect economically I suggest isn’t as great as you suggest. At the end of the day, the finances cost of MF is $12.7b – on the order of $650m annually for 50 yrs, excluding operations or maintenance. Make no mistake, we will pay that back – last time I checked, contractors don’t give refunds. I’d would probably guess that maintaining O/G consumption for thermal generation would cost less than MF ongoing O/M and upgrades – your thoughts?

      If no new money comes into the NL economy (and Canadian economy by extension) we are only shifting existing money around – now, inside NL that is fine, but we cannot force NS/NB to do the same, we are at their mercy for purchase.

      Another thing no one here ever commented on was my statement that we pay for transmission losses from MF into NS – I am not convinced anyone even bothered to read just how bad the Emera power supply agreement could be for NL (just like how the delays at MF affect us financially).


      PENG2

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  4. Another excellent post UG.

    And to Anon, 09:16 ....

    "This project is unparalleled for the transfer of value from NL to the rest of Canada."

    My view also, for a long time now.

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    1. As somebody else pointed out long ago, the $3.8 billion sunk equity is basically a transfer of our offshore oil royalties to Nova Scotia. The hard work of Crosbie-Peckford-Cabot Martin sold down the drain by Danny "L'il Trump" Williams and his merry band of fools and knaves. His (Williams) ignobility will be the defining narrative of modern NL. How the mighty have sunk; the little prick has basically disappeared, buried under the sticking mess that is Muskrat Falls.

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    2. He's also pretty haggard looking in his latest appearances.Looks"good"on him.

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    3. I agree the last news interview I saw of King Danny he did have a "weathered" look to him?

      Something tells me it's probably not Muskrat Falls that has him in a funk?

      I would say that his much beloved, blind trust acquired Galway Development is what maybe weighing on his "brain"!

      Something tells me the anticipated explosion of population relocation to Galway hasn't been proceeding on the frenzied pace that he had expected from his loyal "followers"?

      He has in typical Danny Williams style continued to "promote" his vision as any typical businessman should.

      However, it's easy to say that your properties are selling like hot cakes, but when your are only building a limited number of "hot cakes" per year.

      You can easily see how it will be many, many years, decades probably before he will ever recoup the alleged $200 Million Dollars that he has sunk into this development.

      (Does this sound eerily familiar?)

      His only other consistent revenue stream is from his business park tenants who are no doubt paying handsomely to be able to announce to the masses that they also have decided to extend their services from "the sexy landscape" of the gently rolling Galway hills.

      Now we know from the get go he is actually getting no "income" directly from Costco, another one of his patented "we got it" moments, as supposedly he actually made a deal with devil to get his beloved Costco to make the pilgrimage from Stavanger Drive to the high altar of Danny Drive in Galway.

      Complete with a 10 year tax holiday.

      So I'm guessing his plan being true to the King Danny mantra, "Build it and they will come!"

      Now trust me, there is a huge temptation to make light of a recent social media sensation one such unfortunate lady who decided that "boyfriend" in tow, they would grace the roadways of Galway, in broad daylight, they set out to prove King Danny exactly correct.

      He built it and apparently they did come?

      But that is whole other story!

      I have always been a firm believer in Karma?

      Trust me I don't think many of us will be grief stricken if the Galway Kingdom turns out to be our Province's flash in the pan?

      In actual fact it is almost poetic of sorts that by virtue of the ego of one man, we as a Province are in the economic strife that we are all now faced with.

      Low and behold we have a stagnant economy and guess what?

      People cannot afford to buy homes in Galway!

      Who would ever have thought that such a turn of events would have happened to our man with "golden" touch?

      King Danny!

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  5. Ball may not have started the Muskrat Madness but instead of limiting the damage he is doubling down on the insanity by planning to borrow billions more in financing that can never be repaid. Williams and Dunderdale displayed incredible arrogance. With Ball its incompetence and dumb lies. First class leaders all. Plus ca change...

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  6. As in 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020...Dwight Ball and the Liberals action plan is...continue to hope and pray for OIL prices to crucify the world!!! 100 dollar oil will set us free!! There are many images on the Google of people poking theif heads in the sand, there is no image more fitting. Close your eyes really tight, pull the blankets over your head and hope that OIL dries up soon so we can somehow reap benefits. If such a drought happens after 10 more years of waiting, no doubt, our large customers to the south will take what they want for whatever price they choose. Maybe on promise of rate mitigation money we will hand it over.

    Start a new oil energy corporation, it'll set us free!! the Liberals, like Joey, are still waiting for Fidel...sputtering gibberish and patting each on the back for not being PCs...still waiting for the black gold!!!

    Come and listen to my story about a man named Dwight
    A poor pharmacist, barely kept his story right,
    And then one day he was shootin out some lies,
    And up through the ground come a humblin pies.

    Lies that is, dark smelly, Bull$**t.

    SELL SELL SELL!!!

    Goodbye pensions...hello poverty...I think you're goin to cry

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    1. Great post!

      You have given me my chuckle for today!

      I think you are giving our resident Bard a run for his money?

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    2. Ah, yes, the idiots waiting for black gold to solve our problems, when oil on the brain caused a swelling of heads, Danny, Ed and others.
      But sometimes I wonder what all the fuss is about. PENG2 says it takes 500 dollars a person per year to pay for MFs, That is less than 2000 per family already MUN costs us, being about 2400 per family, and our health care about 24,000 per family. So what's the big deal? An extra 2000 is less than most families pay for a yearly vacation is it not? We just dropped the tax on auto insurance, so are we hard up?
      I have said health issues are #1, MFs #2, but I should re-evaluate. Surely global heating ranks higher than MFs, does it not?
      I just returned from the eye doctor, new glasses set me back about 700. But they told me to take the National Geographic I was brousing. The front page "THE ARCTIC is heating up" .... the carbon threat: thawing tundra will speed up global warming" Nothing new there, except for the details, the scope of the problem. I'd say 99% of the worlds population don't have a clue as to the danger, including PENG2 (who must not have researched this issue).
      Maybe MFs should be ranked lower than #3. What of my financial future? New glasses nearly bankrupted me today. And I have not checked my investments for about 4 months.
      Mearle Haggard sang "If we make it through December, everything will be all right, I know. On that, why worry?
      Winston Adams

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  7. And before anyone pipes up with non-sense, here is some background on the the Winter termination at NLC:
    https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/ousted-nlc-boss-suing-province-1.5295124

    Any incase anyone is itnerested, here is a link to the GT termination:
    https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/health-ceo-who-quit-still-getting-salary-benefits/article18143648/


    PENG2

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    1. This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

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  8. The 12.7 billion myth has held steady for years despite the software problems, the synchronous condensers that will need to be replaced (not fiddled with pretending the bearings are the issue), the interest on the late delivery into service, etc., etc..

    The current cost realistically is about 16 billion with much more to add to the total before MF is operational. This is already 2.5 billion or so over the admitted cost. What will that do to the rate per kWh? What will the taxpayer be responsible for?

    When will the alternate government, Nalcor, be subjected to democratic oversight? Ever?? Why is there still a pretension that Liberal or Conservative "governments" have any real power??

    NL is an oligopoly at best, run by a handful of families that control the politics and economics of NL. Elections are held every four years to preserve the appearance of democracy while the families that run the place in secrecy, sans oversight, happily drain the treasury.

    Let all the peons eat cake! Our secrecy is unchallenged and the treasury is all ours!

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    1. I think you have this one right Bruno. Newfoundland has always been run by the St.john's merchant class and nothing has changed. Muskrat Falls with the enfaces on "rat" was a way to pilfer the provincial treasury. There was not one concern expressed by the St. John's board of trade when this project was announced. Danny Williams got standing ovation after standing ovation each time he appeared before them because they knew he was filling their pockets with money. Why was it that the Dwight Ball government didn't stop this project when they came to power? Mr. Ball said he had no choice as there were air tight agreements in place with both Emera and the federal government. The agreement with Emera only requires Nalcor to start providing power to them when the third generator starts up so if it didn't start up too bad. As for the loan guarantee with the federal government does anybody really think they would take over a project that the CEO of Nalcor called a boondoggle. Not likely. So why did it continue? Because everybody but the tax payer ie the rate payer was getting rich.

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  10. XNRGY Climate Systems, a Montreal based startup received 75 million from a USA private equity firm. They will build air handling units to achieve the lowest power usage effectiveness (PUE) rating in the world.
    Here Ball is pushing ahead with obsolete electric resistance heat including for MUN and not a whimper from our engineering profession, architects etc, and may burn more fuel at Holyrood than before, especially with MFs not on stream or proven reliable.
    We will use about 4 kw of oil heat energy at Holyrood to be able to produce 1 kw of electric resistance heat. Island hydro or island wind, or reliable MFs energy (if that exists) that produces 1 kw of electric energy can produce 3 kw of heatpump heat energy.
    Stratton at Nfld Hydro wanted to keep increasing baseboard electric resistance or electric boiler heat, this the Planning rationale for Muskrat Falls. So they are still headed that way,its the "Liberal Way Forward" and if Holyrood is much used, it will be much worse as to energy waste.
    Least energy use, as this Montreal manufacturer will do for air handling , especially cooling energy for them, is opposite to what we attempt to do. Go figure.
    So many announcement from the EMERA Innovation Center here, soon they will own all the Labrador Link, and quaranteed returns?
    Winston Adams

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  11. It seems that UG is a little touchy concerning comments about Mr. Winter. Did they go to the same school? Are they in the same opimian club? The webs woven by the NL "elite", including former deputy ministers, seem to always connect.

    I did like the expunged joke though. "Mr. Winter what is the favorite wine of the unwashed NL". Ans. "I wants to be in Florida this winter just like Danny"

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    1. This Blog is intended for public policy discussion not for ad hominem attacks when you are not even willing to put your name to the accusation.Please respect everyone by not engaging in the practice.

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    2. The call just came in, they're sending all that unsold wine down to Government House.

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    3. Bullshit Des. Some who dominate the blog with ad hominum attacks non stop and yet get no censure from you. Others like myself that use my name get bounced for suggesting using the enter key now and again. No obscenity, no rude comments and I get bounced.

      Allowing incessant raving and attacks on anyone who point out how inane and repetitive the rants and keyboard lessons are, has become the norm on your blog. Why let your blog become word vomit rather than the marketplace of ideas it is at its best (minus the word vomit)?

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    4. Oh........what a joker, our Bruno. Never uses obscenity or rude comments he says, yet he has been king of such language, and tends to rub off, even I at times being too rude.
      Indeed, even Ed Holletts latest piece uses language, some from Bruno's vocab.
      But crude language is becoming more mainstream with Trump on Twitter, and even CNN using some.
      Yet for Bruno I recently heard him a little on VOCM with Daley, and very polite and rational and one would wonder if there are 2 different Brunos?
      Sometimes Bruno is funny, I enjoy most of his comments, I think he is very intelligent, but not very technical, but a generalist in those areas, and is immune to hearing alternate opinions.
      He then attacks the moderator of this blog, when he don't get his own way, knowing that the owner may be subject to legal problems if not some censoring.
      Overall I think Bruno sees and understand our problems here with governance and lack of accountability and secrecy, and shouts it out. Des Sullivan has class and good tone in his pieces and always well written, without crude language. Too much crude language is ineffective, and lowers the discussion quality, attacking character and not debating facts and sound ideas.
      Is Bullshit an acceptable word, to describe the moderator's decision? Not my call, but is it not rude?
      To tame Bruno is difficult. But I like him in some ways.
      Winston Adams

      Delete
    5. Lol, Bruno, please get off my back, or send me a new computer. For the humpteen time I have told you that the enter key on my old clunker rarely works. I am sure most people understands that, so why not you. I am being as polite as possible (being Valentines Day) so that neither of us gets bounced. Sincerely, Joe blow.

      Delete
    6. blah blah blah blah blah....

      Delete
    7. This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

      Delete
    8. Bruno, WA gave you several compliments. AJ was not rude or never used off color language.
      Suggest you just rest, as you have no case.
      THE SHADOW.

      Delete
    9. Just want to say, I did not reply. But would have answered with one word, Likewise.

      Delete
    10. Hoops, Joe blow.

      Delete
  12. You can't beat the sense of entitlement of the Townie Elite. My family and I only took 3% (or $15 million) off the top, just a measly 3%, surely below the amount that I'm entitled to in my appointed position, where's the fairness? If I knew there was no plunder implicit in the appointment, I wouldn't have bothered with the job and its parsimonious Super Sunshine List salary.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It's common knowledge the NL Treasury is a "cash Cow" and ripe for the picking.Anyone who wants some fast money ask to be "let go".

      Delete
  13. https://www.thetelegram.com/opinion/local-perspectives/letter-submission-to-pub-pushed-for-cost-of-service-model-for-muskrat-falls-in-2012-410956/

    ReplyDelete
  14. OMG just listening to Mr. Vardy on open line. Paddy had to cut him of because of the time on the clock. If that was someone talking about their dog had a broken toe nail, he would have put them on hold to get the whole story. But someone who knows about muskrat, you have limited time. Guess his bosses are listening, and they don't want anyone talking, who know anything about the boondoggle talking to give the public an insight in trying to understand the fiscal. And that has always been the case, let someone who knows nothing about the boondoggle babble on, but anyone who knows anything, cut 'em off, less we learn or understand something, can't have that, says Joe blow.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes Joe, and CBC now with a piece "Worried about Muskrat Falls increasing your power bills?"
      It shows Mr Mr Don Hutchens with his remote, controlling his minisplit, now saving him 35 % on winter bills. No mention that this also reduces grid peak load.
      Where was CBC in 2012 and after , absent from the PUB hearing when I brought this to the attention of the PUB. Now they are being installed at 12,0000 units per year, they show this, with photos and the minisplit on the wall, 8 years too late.
      Hutchens was a 32 year engineer in project management in public utilities. He says for MFs to double in cost, in his experience if this happened , "people would be shot, tarred , and feathered. There's just no forgiveness"
      Instead they get million dollar payoffs, right?
      Winston Adams

      Delete
    2. Wa @ 10:31:

      Memory serves, Mr H spent his career with NewfieTel / Bell Aliant - maybe someone could confirm?

      I also made a point of listening to DV today - but also to the Moody's rep yesterday and infact Openline every day this week due to the rate mitigation release. A good amount of coverage - RP and Des were both already on this week - but to cut DV short is odd(but I also have no idea of time constraints on a radio show either).

      For me, rate mitigation is a myth (as I have previously said) - but I also agree with this announcement was nothing except voter pandering to say 'we will try to come up with something'.

      I still remember hearing in December that an announcement on rate mitigation was going to be delayed until later - maybe when JT was here?

      PENG2

      Delete
    3. Yes, PENG2, Why not use "Mortgage", instead of the meaningless, "Rate Mitigation"? The Debt/Mortgage description is more applicable, and understandable to most of us. Cost of Debt over time, so to speak. Our children and heirs will pay the price for this and other politically motivated Legacy Projects. NL Merchants, facing the WWI debt, could not face the Public outcry in 1933, went back to the King, on bended knee, cap in hand.

      Delete
  15. https://vocm.com/2020/02/11/moodys-muskrat-falls/

    Well this is a shocker?

    I can't even type that without a continuous eye roll!

    NALCOR:

    "The tangled web we weave when first you practice to deceive."

    ReplyDelete
  16. Haven't read Ball's plan, (only saw the announcement on TV), but Hollett seems to suggest that Ball's plan may not really reflect a true cost-of-service model.

    He states "You can see this in one of the slides from the media briefing deck that shows the amount needed each year for the next half century as a pretty flat line. If it was actually cost-of-service as presented, then the costs would be front-loaded: more at the front than the back".

    So Ball's plan, if a true cost-of-service model, should allow for higher rates in the early years.

    More purposeful misrepresentation?

    I can't understand why government don't lay the facts on the table so that the people they purport to represent can understand and judge for themselves.

    ReplyDelete
  17. PENG2, in the 1960s Mark Gosse of Spaniard's Bay build a modern large bungalow. Gosse had a saw mill in the 1920s and built it into a building supply business. Many locals said Mark Gosse was a millionaire. My neighbour Melrose said "It's not hard to make a million dollars,all you got to do is buy a million fouls(hens he meant) for a dollar each, and sell them for 2 dollars each"
    Today Fortis donated 1/2 million for cancer care here, 250 for the Health Care Corp and 250 for the Bliss Murphy expansion costing 6.5 million(Husky donated 1.4 million for Bliss Murphy last year).

    A while back you stated that Fortis donates 4-5 million a year here to charitable causes, not counting Nfld Power employee and customer contributions, as I understood you. I could find only about 1 million a year for 2018 and 2019. Maybe I missed a lot in my research, which I didn't complete.
    In the 1960s, Mark Gosse had worked over 40 years to accumulate a million dollars, which was a lot of money then. Nowadays, Nalcor blows that often on incompetent managers as golden handshakes.So the Fortis donation got several high officials some PR: Barry Perry and Karl Smith on NTV. Of course it's a good cause, but not much for a Nfld based corporation the size of Fortis, is it?
    But your claim of 4-5 million a year, is that accurate, if so it is significant, or is it a myth? Might you be way off on your figure? My research was incomplete, so I may be way off assuming about 1 million a year.
    Winston Adams

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. WA @ 20:48:

      Now you are getting downright ridiculous - you need to do better research. Fortis financial reports are available and donations are also well publicized, if you care to read up.

      If you want just 2 recent examples over the past couple years: consider the Fortis donation to the Salvation Army or their donation to The Rooms.

      I also remember you questioning if the annual Fortis donations included those made by the public and/or employees(actually this would be very illegal) - maybe you need to read the release about the cuddle beds for Stephenville area. This 2nd donation was specifically worded as being made by 'employees of NL Power' - this is a requirement to be in compliance with the Revenue Canada laws.....

      Hopefully, this puts this to bed.

      PENG2

      Delete
    2. PENG2, not a question of any illegality, that Fortis would never claim public or employee donations as corproration ones.
      Agree I may have missed some donations, but not convinced I missed any significiant ones.
      I think I saw that Fortis donates about 13 million per year, but that is a total over all their jurisdictions, about 10 different locations, Canada, USA and Carribean. As Nfld Power is only about 5 % of their total revenue,even 1 million per year donated in Nfld and Lab would be proportional more than other jurisdictions. And 4-5 million seems way out of wack, but if so, I applaud it but far from convinced of your numbers.
      For 2018, and 2019, as you are more familiar with this, state the donation amount to each recepient, the total for each year, can you? Yes I would like to put this to bed too.
      Winston Adams

      Delete
  18. The Feds have put us on notice that they consider us accountable as a province for our own poor choices, lack of diligence and bad outcomes. They couldn't care less about our finger pointing, collective gripes, Danny Williams, Ed Martin or the facts uncovered in the MF inquiry. As a province, which means all of us as citizens, we have entered into legal agreements and the Feds are expecting us to behave like adults and hold up our end of the deal. This reference by UG to FREE money from the Feds should be rephrased as money from the Canadian taxpayer, who should NOT be held accountable for our self inflicted bad outcomes. Thanks to Ottawa for dignifying us with adult like treatment and holding us to our commitments. Now we just have to grow up as a people to justify the adult like treatment. We will need to figure out the path forward ourselves and deal with the consequences. Maybe we will be a little smarter and more diligent in future, knowing we ourselves will have to pay for any mistakes we make.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Well said ---- BUT also.

      The feds were THE ENABLRS ---- Period.

      Yes, we need to Bite The Bullet, and deal with this mess, which so far the Liberals have been almost, and one could argue, even worse than, the PCs.

      But I see no reason to have confidence that Ball, Coady, Marshall et al have been or are being straight with their fellow citizens.

      We have no idea who is doing the negotiating, or what is being negotiated, behind closed doors, and there is no information on how WE will bite the bullet and clean up this mess.

      Delete
    2. MA @ 07:44:

      Not sure how you can claim the Feds were enablers - the PC government would have proceeded with or without the FLG. The NL Government has since borrowed money at cheaper rates than provided fro under the FLG:
      https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/n-l-long-term-borrowing-capacity-1.3496293

      Maybe you also need to do some math; the FLG is claimed to save about $1b over the course of project financing - that's about 2-3% of the ~$30-35b. There in no reasonable argument to be made that a 2-3% reduction in total cost would have prevented DW/KD et al from proceeding with MF - especially since all their press a the time say 'they would go it alone' and the FLG provides no direct cash for MF.

      The only time anyone said the FLG was crucial was KD at the Inquiry - but you don't believe any of the rest of her testimony except this 1 statement??? Either she was lying then or lying now trying to save her a$$:
      https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/muskrat-loan-guarantee-1.4951116


      The NL public ask for MF, we got it and now we complain - pretty typically for our ilk....


      PENG2

      Delete
    3. I agree with PENG2 that Nfld would have proceeded alone, if possible, but would have been more difficult a sell job. Even early on with the known cost increases, there was no evidence they were giving serious thoughts to not proceeding.
      However that the Feds were all in, promoting this as a regional benefit including NS, (most benefit was to NS), and a benefit for climate change for Canada,there is a case to say the Feds were enablers also.

      That NL asked for it, sure, based on misleading information to the public that there were no better alternatives, and this was lowest cost power for our future BY FAR. PENG2 continues to argue that all AJs should have informed themselves of the pitfalls and high risks that only Leblanc Inquiry exposed 8 years later. Even Leblanc did not dive into the 40 risks of power RELIABILITY that is now at the forefront, he covered the 140 risks to construction etc. Leblanc did not dive into what would be the lowest cost power.
      Only a few technical people, engineering types, economic types, and a few tuned in AJs saw the dangers, less than 30 %, so most bought into the BS, masterly done by Nalcor's PR machine, and govn officials, unions, Board of Trade, and elites with vested interested.Even Fortis mostly stayed silent, ALteen saying he only recently realized the Avalon would be in danger without Holyrood backup, a pile of bullshit by him, not to know this. Important, the main media did no investigative journalism, and I suggest deliberately avoided it.
      Did PENG2 try to present to the media or the PUB his technical knowledge and opinion of the risks?

      Did I make the case that our citizens, if they asked for it, it was not their all their fault? That ignorance is an excuse, and a valid one. Trust but verify? We trust and seek not to verify, but not easy to verify the risks of the scheme, taking 30 million of the Inquiry to partially uncover the tricks and corrupt practices uses, even and perhaps mostly, I suggest, by too many engineering people, but not only engineering.

      Like we trusted the priests who molested the children, we trust politicians and others that don't deserve trust.
      Winston Adams

      Delete
    4. Maurice - I have a hard time with your logic. Let's look at a comparable situation. Let's say that your nephew came to you and told you he wanted to build a house for the benefit of himself and his family but couldn't afford to do it without your financial backing. You in turn agreed to sign off on a loan at the bank to support his plans, feeling good about yourself because you can help a family member better his situation. Then, the nephew loses control of the house project and costs shoot up, which he can't afford to deal with himself. He then comes back and tells you that because you assisted him, you are now responsible (because you enabled him) for his failure and have to make it right somehow so he doesn't get hurt financially.

      If it were me, I would give him a strange look and furthermore, I would think twice in future if he comes looking for more financial support to pursue other initiatives where they might be risk of failure on his part.

      Regarding having the NL public intimately involved in negotiations with the Feds, that is not practical to contemplate. The expectations of the people of NL are generally unrealistic because we think that everyone should put our interests ahead of their own. The Feds have to be accountable to the citizens and taxpayers of all of Canada, and those people don't feel any obligation to spare us from ourselves and our own ineptness. They provided loan guarantees to support our initiatives and we failed to properly execute our end of the arrangement. Like every failure, there are related consequences. If we had a massive success, would we look to change terms of our deal with the Feds? I don't think so. NL has finally reached a coming of age where we are expected to be accountable for ourselves and government handouts have come to an end. There may be pain associated with dealing with MF but I for one am happy we have finally reached this point so we will be forced to smarten up to avoid bad outcomes or pay dearly for any continued ineptness.

      Delete
    5. WA @ 10:56:

      Again, you misquote me - I never 1x said the average joe should understand the technical details. All I have ever said there was enough sound technical information in the public media casting doubt on MF that more questions should have been raised - and that a PC government shouldn't have been reelected in 2011 on a platform that promised the development of MF.


      Now, to put a few numbers to what the FLG actually means:
      1) savings as per the FLG at ~1b, or 2-3% of total MF cost: on the order of $17-20m annually of cost to pronvince
      2) FLG interest rate benefit: 0.25% (ie increase rate increase if no FLG)
      3) NL annual expenditures: ~$8.5b
      4) MF repayment proportion of NL annual expenditures: ~9% (assumed repayment of ~$750m/yr)
      5) MF FLG savings repayment proportion of NL annual budget: 0.2-0.23% (ie savings of $20m/yr)

      More or less, if my calcs are right - if we are to believe the FLG was essential to sanctioning MF it effectively means the same as a average joe getting a house mortgage approved at $1000/month but being refused by bank at $1030/month because it was affordable. Bottom line, either MF was affordable with or without the FLG - the FLG didn't just make it possible and thus we cannot label the Feds as 'enablers'.

      End result, the FLG didn't enable MF, nor did it make it possible. The FLG was political pandering at its finest - right down to KD saying she was about to walk away based on the Feds wanting CETA fishery concessions in return.


      Until we start to hold politicians and ourselves responsible we are doomed to repeat.....


      PENG2

      Delete
    6. Winston - A couple of points to note in response to your comments.

      The Feds had to promote MF for regional benefit and climate change because they had to convince the rest of Canada as to why it made sense for the country to support this project. Supporting the project for the sole benefit of NL is not enough to say, as the Feds have to demonstrate their support is at least in part because of regional and national benefit. Quebec has the enviable position of having enough Federal seats to leverage the Feds for their own provincial interests but little NL is not in that position. If the Feds did not sell a regional and national benefit to MF, they would have drawn fire from other provinces who have their own agendas for use of Federal financial support.

      Regarding misleading info as a foundation for garnering public support for the project, there is no doubt that was done. You are however looking at a box inside the box, as it was people in our camp who misguided us, not the Feds or people outside this province. As much as we may dislike it, the Feds and the rest of the country see the Nalcor fiasco as a NL issue that has nothing to do with them. From outside the province, Nalcor, PUB, provincial politicians, bankrupt contractors, trade unions and the NL public are all inside the NL box as part of this deal. To the Feds, we are blaming each other but alas all remain collectively accountable.

      Lesson 1 in reaching adult hood. Life is not always fair because what defines fair is in the eye of the beholder.

      Delete
    7. May as well add my 1cent worth, that I have expressed several times before. As much as Danny et al wanted to go it alone, it was impossible to complete the project, maybe start it. Even if the fincincial markets had given the first loan of 4.9b, as Harper did, then we would never have gotten the other 2.9b. We put in an equity of around 4b, borrowed and from oil. So no way would we be able to borrow 13 billion. We can't even afford to come up with the operating cost of 4 to 6 hundred million a year, no can't even borrow it, so how could we come up with 13b. Hogwash. Now as for Harper, that loan was not given in good faith. That was more like send the fools further, and sit back and watch them screw themselves royally. ABC et al, defeatest attitude, all revenge by Harper. If he was serious about the loan guarantee, he would have required his officials to investigate the viability of the maratime link, as all studies showed there was no business case. He would not have just taken Danny's and Eddie's word, that there was money to be made, dividends or not. Average Joe.

      Delete
    8. Oh yes, and should also add the MPRs that Harper wanted Dunderdale to sign off on in exchange for the FLG. Dunderdale balked at that, and Harper said frig ya, take the loan guarantee while I sit back with a wry smile and watch you go under. Joe blow.

      Delete
    9. No doubt PENG2 is correct, the samll amount of benefit of the FLG is not much, more important it gave credibility for the people that there was a sober second look at the business case and technical case, There was in reality neither of that. It was political pandering as PENG2 says, but disguised as sober second though bhy the Feds.
      Yes it mostly people inside our province who misled us, but consultants MHI was outside and others, and the Fed so called Independent engineer......all this a class act of deception inisde and outside the province. Perhaps only PQ did not mislead us.
      And as AJ says, Harper himself is an economist is he not? Of Wade Locke style not Vardy. Where did Harpers people confirm the business case? Even Geologists Canada advised risks to the North SPur, but luke warm warnings, but even recommended earthquake monitoring that was never done. Hundreds of lives at risk if a major failure and the risk known by th etop dogs in canada, as Bruno knows, was ignored. Bruno attended these presentations and spoke up, but twas ignored.
      The Feds enabled this boondoggle , certainly, but what percentage?
      I'd say 35 -40 %,Nfld 60-65 % NS had a part, a significiant part. Will Leblanc lay blame as I do?
      Winston Adams

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    10. Anon at 11:07:

      A person who "...wanted to build a house for the benefit of himself and his family but couldn't afford to do it without your financial backing" is not at all comparable.

      The house builder's plan is wholly for his and his family's benefit.

      With the exception of the MF contractors (many of whom were from outside Canada, and many from Quebec), the only real beneficiaries of the Muskrat fiasco were Nova Scotia (transition away from coal), and the feds politically with respect to Nova Scotian MPs and its carbon reduction commitments).

      Muskrat was, and is, nothing more than a yoke around NL's neck. NL did not need a new house (Muskrat).

      Danny's ego got massaged and with the help of his enablers, we pay the price.

      Delete
    11. MA @ 12:22:

      Do you have any proof that 'many from Quebec'? That's a totally unfounded statement from my experience.

      Also, your statement that NS is benefiting is weak at best - NS committed and built ~$2b worth of infrastructure support MF (more or less $100m during the 35yrs for 200Mw assuming similar interest rates to the FLG). Problem being NS has it done on time and budget – maybe it just annoys us that others in Canada are smarter than us? So you know, the $100m being invested by NS works out to about $0.055/kWhr – so, still not a great bargain for NS as compared to our Island hydro we mortgaged.


      NLers put the yoke around their own neck because we are too green to burn - but most insulting is the ~125MW we gotta provide for free to cover transmission losses including those to NS.

      I haven't yet heard anyone mention the losses we will pay for by transmitting power to NS - are we too self focused???

      PENG2

      Delete
    12. PENG2, over a century ago we were told we were too green to burn, so nothing new, except that with so many MUN educated, why are we still so green? Is this a failure of our education system? Or our media to not properly investigate and inform? Blind faith in authority figures? The feudal system still? Controlled by elites?

      This is not working good for NS so far, but what of Emera's stake in the LIL? A guarantee of profits on power transferred to Nfld. And a potential larger ownership going forward?
      Transmission losses: My references to transmission probably goes back to 2012: about % of power lost from MFs to Soldires Pond. I guess you reference that Nfld absorbs power loss on the tranmission losses from Nfld to NS? Is that not standard practice, you only pay for power inside your meter at your house.
      Winston

      Delete
    13. should read about 8% of power lost from MFs to Soldiers Pond.Yet CBC whoever always call this 824 MW and ignores the losses, and the cost of those losses.
      WA

      Delete
    14. WA @ 15:53:

      The allotment of losses during transmission (ie NL paying for, and NS only paying for delivered power) will be important when it comes to adjudicating disputes. More or less, as you say it comfirmed NS position as only a customer - they are not a partner in the development.

      More importantly, is how delays as costed back to NL - doesn't matter if MF not ready, we are still going to have to compensate NS for economic losses they are enduring now (ie cost of ML sitting idle, cost of generation in NS etc).

      PENG2

      Delete
    15. Would NL have gotten the loans without the FLG? To say the small cost difference was not the issue. The issue was whether the bond-markets would trust to NL to make the payments. We heard that the bond market simply didn't look at the project once the FLG tag was attached. Surely, without the FLG they would have looked extensively into the feasibility and would have had questions. When they check the PUB review and the joint review panel report they'd probably be scared off and consider this not worth the risk. Is there any evidence otherwise?

      Delete
    16. The complexity of the boondoggle suggests ordinary people could not understand it.
      Take transmission losses: is there one in a hundred of the
      public understands the issue and impact?
      Power from Bay de Espoir to st John's, say 5 % power lost in transmission, and from Holyrood to St John's say 2 % lost. That is a cost to Nfld Hydro and impact their profit, but losses are not excessive, and related to distance.
      Now our island power goes to NS, they do not pay for the losses, Nfld Hydro does, so they get no penality for losses, and we pay for losses to them.
      Now for power from Mfs to St John's , about 8 % losses, almost twice what is was from Bay De Espoir, and 4 times transmission losses from Holyrood. That is on Nalcor and reduces their profits, and put on us as consumers to pay for it through high rates.
      No Mfs power goes directly to NS, but island power, and no transmission losses expense to them at all.
      All transmission losses , whether from MFs, or from Bay de Espoir to NS, is at our expense.
      Yet MFs was promoted as 20% block etc to NS, when none goes to NS. Did or does the media ever clearly state that?
      That but one example of how the public was fooled, and still is. This all in the legal contracts. And what law firms did the contracts? Same ones at the Inquiry ?
      Is this your point?
      Winston

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    17. Let's just say that without the FLG we couldn't get the financing,what would be the outcry in NL.Forever and a day we would be blaming Ottawa for denying us the ability to be "masters of our destiny."And who would we blame for the mess if we had gone ahead without the FLG? We were sold (and bought) a bill of goods by our own people.Now we have to pay for it.

      Delete
    18. A good summary, we were sold and bought a bill of goods by our own people. Any enabling by others outside the province was secondary. And the selling goes on by the Ball government, but not so many buying it nowadays.
      Still, many believe in the tooth fairy.
      Winston

      Delete
    19. Didn't Newfoundlanders always believe in fairies

      Delete
    20. Perhaps not a joke: my wife grew up afraid of fairies, the old people always telling stories about fairies. I personally heard old timers, men and women, firmly believe they existed and saw them. Nfld folklore at MUN has much on that subject, and comes from Ireland I guess.
      Can this explain the whole MFs fiasco? Is wade Locke , Danny Williams, others that led us astray, and promoted voodoo economics, all have some fairy genes, or those thatso easily bought into the bill of goods, 70 % of our population, have fairy genes?
      If this an explanation, then we may forever be doomed?
      And all the more with Alison Coffin, I fear. I get the feeling at times she is fresh from a foggy bog, where fairies are known to hang out. If in her presence, I might even be inclined to cautious, who can tell for sure as to the supernatural. Take Rex Murphy, should he not be tested?
      Winston

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    21. I have the same impression of Allison Coffin as you do.Not so sure about Ches Crosbie either.Not much hope for future alternative to what we have at present in terms of governance in NL.Anyway I've had too many hot toddies to comment with any sensiblity for now,so good night until tomorrow.

      Delete
    22. I believe I'm in the fairies.

      Delete
  19. This Jerry Earle individual an the rest of his socialist public sector union ilk seem to think hat money grows on trees.

    https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/nlc-privatization-debate-1.5464243

    None of the arguments he put forward during his debate with Mr. Hollet were backed up with facts; they were all based on mere speculation and conjecture with a socialist bias.

    These left-wing utopian dreamers are living in a fiscal fantasy world... this province is on the brink of bankruptcy largely due to the most horrendously bloated public service sector in all of Canada, and this Earle individual is both a participant in, and promoter of, that horrendous bloat.

    I would say to the Jerry Earles of the province... like Thatcher said... the problem with socialism is that you eventually run out of other peoples' money to spend.

    Dummy up.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Those of us in the private sector should (and many are) leave and let the public sector bloat implode onto itself. What a mess it will make.

      Delete
  20. Some blah blah on PEAK LOAD
    Last nite it got to -17C perhaps the coldest this year.
    By 6;25 last evening the load was 1564 Mw, @-13 C
    by 1;30 am, @ -17C it showed 1409 MW, due mostly to thermostats set back.
    One might expect a 400 mw ramp up in the morning, to approach 1800MW, but not so. It is Saturday, and not a work day, and thermostats set differently, is part.
    At 5;35 am it showed only 1429 Mw, It had warmed slightly to -15C
    At 9;05 it showed 1511 Mw and sunny and now down to 1465 Mw.
    perhaps morning peak was at 8am and I missed it, but could not have been very high.
    I think we are achieving some flattening of the winter peak, perhpas Nfld Hydro should make a statement on that?
    Winston Adams

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  21. A little blah blah on minisplits.
    These must defrost, with high outdoor RH defrosts occur as often as every 45 minutes.That decreases efficiency, and decreases the life of the unit.
    When defrosting there is a switch of temperatures on the coils as much as 150F or more. This creates thermal shock and eventually a crack in the coil and a loss of freon, and unit replacement needed. With outdoor mounting, the cycles to take this failure can take on average 15 years, was from my research a few years ago, from manufactures .Lower RH and less defrosts can extend the life.
    Most units here likley defrost 8 -12 times a day, perhaps every 2 hrs on average, we have high outdoor RH (with cold NW winds RH is favourable for these)
    Here is something amazing:
    My unit has an average of just 2 defrost per day, for the past month it shows 12 days with ZERO defrosts, 7 days with just one, 1 day with 10, the most.
    This implies a failure from thermal shock may be 5 times longer, so 75 years!. Likely something fails before then.
    Why so few defrosts? Because it is attic mounted ,where Relative Humidity is always lower, it is dryer, always.
    I seldom monitor as I did in the past. Last nite my unit was operating at 1200 watts power, it 's rated power input is 1550 watts , so could take lower temperature at excellent efficiency.
    Winston Adams

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  22. blah blah blah blah blah ad nauseam...

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    1. That anon @ 11;56 reads my post and responds in 7 minutes means he has a vested interest to discourage space heat high efficiency and lower heating costs for residents. Does he work for oil heat companies, for Nfld Power or Nfld Hydro who fear a electricity sale collapse? Or a govennment official?
      He can't counter the facts and research and has a low vocab of blah , blah word ad nauseam.
      Make no wonder he is anonymous. He has nothing useful or new to say.
      Winston Adams

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    2. What makes you think I bother to read any of your reptitious bullshit anymore?

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    3. A recent comment here cited the use of 4 heads minisplit for his/her house, and 36 % yearly power reduction. This rather good but could be better.
      Reductions in energy use should be rated as bronze, silver, gold or platinimum.
      I would rate his as GOLD.
      I would like to hear from him if he wishes to call. Likely a guy or gal with technical ability. Perhaps like minded people should get together to share best practices as a guide for others to Mitigate Power Bills, the hell with rate mitigation, mitigate the bill.
      Winston Adams

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    4. Anon @ 12;36 is again responding in 7 minutes, so obsessed with my posting. He certainly reads them, to call them BS, how could he judge if not reading them?
      Winston Adams

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    5. blah blah blah blah blah...

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    6. Again in 7 minutes....could it be Stratton, who before Leblanc said the plan was to increase baseboard heat load to justify the forecast for MFs, and would not change a thing if he was do do it over, didn't believe in end-use analysis to prove heat efficiency and peak load reductions. Stratton used blah, blah and is still working for Nfld Hydro?

      Meanwhile my unit for the month of Jan used 425 kwh, so this $55.25 for heat. This for about 750 sq ft @ 19C as not occuppied.
      Yesterday it used 14.72 kwh, so $1.91 for a very cold day, these at 13 cent power rates.
      UG readers know I have said little on minisplits this past year, after doing a full year of detailed monitoring. Now with 12,000 per year being installed,less need of blah blab, except for the scallywags.
      Winston Adams

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  23. https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/politics/rex-murphy-climate-zealots-have-taken-canada-hostage-and-our-pm-is-missing-in-action/ar-BB100Chu?ocid=spartandhp

    An interesting opinion.

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    1. Poor Rex, gave away his journalism career to the oil industry, and became a shill for the deniers.

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    2. Any need to hear from dinasour Rex? Doesn't know climate from weather. And he a Rhodes Scholar, same cut as Danny Williams.
      Rex must fall, as too Danny , and Rhodes.
      Did Rex once call for free tuition at MUN in his socialist days?
      Winston Adams

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    3. Many Nflders have gone ice fishing and then the boil up, whether using a few dry twigs or a propane bottle.
      Imagine hanging your kettle over the ice hole, light a match at the ice hole and up come fire 2 feet high from the hole to boil your kettle.
      In much of the North tundra area, of Russia and Canada, you can now do this, with methane given off from what used to be permafrost.
      The volumes soon to be equal to all the GHGs from China, and no way to stop it. The large volumes not even factored in to the Paris Accord on climate change,and happening much faster than scientist thought would happen, as the far North and far South heatin much more rapid. This alone should frighten the bejesus out of sound thinking humans, that such things are happening now.
      It is scary to scientists, but not to Rex and other deniers. And methane about 20 times worse than CO2.
      Every week now there is 4 or 5 new climate event records happening
      Winston

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    4. Just wondering if Tyrannosaurus Rex talks to many farmers,loggers, or waitresses.Not likely.

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    5. Rex has a brother dragged into respectability with an oil patch job. That is all blowhard Rex needs to be denier in chief so please don't bore me with the science.

      What will Rex's brother do if he can't gum up the future climate? Pass him a beer and a scotch on the rocks for the more refined Rex.

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  24. Minus 29 wind chill here in St John's this morning. No flies on the go and hard to get up for a good global warming conversation.

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    1. True, but don't confuse weather with climate, new heat records worldwide
      far far outpacing cold records, but we get both, and so predicted by models. . NB set a new low at -36 C, 1 C colder than in 1929. But no ice age coming yet. Antartic setting new heat records last week, warmer than 20 C! That where |Scott froze to death, now penquins are dying. , too warm or no food.
      Winston

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    2. Why not get confused with weather, the media brainwashing crew do it on a daily basis. Have you ever listened to the news and recorded how many times they say climate change during the evening news. I do know that climate change has been going on since the beginning of time and that the causes are many.

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    3. Anon, seems you prefer confusing weather with climate? Has the media confused you not to know the difference?
      As to the issue of time,the beginning was about 13 billion years ago, and then like discussing the climate of the sun, certainly no trees or fish or animals nor humans for billions of years. So how do you know climate was changing then at the beginning, or if it was stable for hundreds of millions or billion of years?
      With the issue of time, Stephen Hawking knew something, more than you or I, and he said global warming is the most dangerous thing facing our civilization, even more so than nuclear war.
      Maybe the evening news should quote Hawking?
      My take is that earth cycles between extreme warmth and ice ages, from natural causes, but the cycles can be influenced by human activity, especially CO2 from fossil fuel burning, and can rapidly drive us to extreme warming. Climate scientists most all agree on that, and too physicists like Hawking.
      Or you can believe T Rex Murphy or The Digger or Andy Wells for your climate science. What is their expertise, not knowing weather from climate science. A rare cold snap and they shout the ice age is coming.
      Winston Adams
      Winston Adams

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  25. Sell gull island to HQ and in 65 years when they’ve got their return on investment, split the revenues.
    done. Nova Scotia happy. trudeau happy. quebec happy. alberta sad. NL is a colony so no one cares. all will be canada.

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