tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post2331573361056495242..comments2023-10-25T07:29:40.789-02:30Comments on UNCLE GNARLEY: MUSKRAT SUBSIDIES WILL CAUSE A GOV'T DEBT SPIRALDes Sullivanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02566013585647491614noreply@blogger.comBlogger79125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-4389796165890139312017-10-21T16:20:40.631-02:302017-10-21T16:20:40.631-02:30In Newfoundland? LOL
RonGBIn Newfoundland? LOL<br />RonGBAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-12599078613126578132017-10-18T16:16:42.598-02:302017-10-18T16:16:42.598-02:30OBVIOUSLY #ShutMuskratDown before "Forensic A...OBVIOUSLY #ShutMuskratDown before "Forensic Audit" and "Public Inquiry" otherwise both processes are open to accusations of being INEQUITABLE. In other words #ShutMuskratDown PENDING THE OUTCOMES. The existing structures at Muskrat Falls represent a commonly agreed Boondoggle. They should become a monument not a dam built in the wrong place. Surely common sense must now prevail?Llewelyn Pritchardhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02280861803075241151noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-18664925084697781042017-10-15T21:44:37.095-02:302017-10-15T21:44:37.095-02:30Grid peak load
Oct 7....816MW
Oct 8....800
Oct 9.....Grid peak load<br />Oct 7....816MW<br />Oct 8....800<br />Oct 9....860<br />Oct 10...789<br />WIth about 1100 Mw of island Hydro, if all working, it seems little need for Holyrood yet........good for low emissions and lower costs for fuel. <br />MF.......15 billion to replace Holyrood and find we still need Holyrood for backup, unless Liberty is wrong,..... and MF might be reliable .......what is the odds<br />WinstonAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-54170172834613175532017-10-15T19:32:34.799-02:302017-10-15T19:32:34.799-02:30Mr. Anon at 15:25,
Is there any reason to think th...Mr. Anon at 15:25,<br />Is there any reason to think that Emera can sell their chunk of MF energy bought at $.05/KWh to Newfie Power for, say, $0.10/KWh and then make up their energy deficiencies on the spot market? Emera could make a fortune, NLP could make a fortune in a $0.17/KWh retail environment.Hydro would be left slack-jawed, dazed and drooling, stunned as the stones. RGBudAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-82954524400895643042017-10-15T14:33:28.974-02:302017-10-15T14:33:28.974-02:30I have been advised that the inquiry setup does no...I have been advised that the inquiry setup does not require Legislative debate, and further, is imminent. There must be some political demand to have this set up and over with before the next election. Those who want to provide public input to the inquiry best have their ducks in a row.Robert G Holmeshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05356463540446993862noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-64016705521930324552017-10-14T23:07:52.732-02:302017-10-14T23:07:52.732-02:30I think the analysis is fine and I actually agree ...I think the analysis is fine and I actually agree with the conclusions. I just think that the seriousness of the situation is exaggerated. I also think there is a simpler way of analyzing the situation (my way lol). <br /><br />I wouldn't say the fiscal situation of NL is a house of cards. The challenges are daunting for sure, but NL has faced difficult situations before. This time however, the risks are high for sure. An economy leveraged to commodities, high debt, aging population, slowing economy - potential for out-migration - need I go on?Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07341048560339265318noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-23201933138126798212017-10-14T22:22:00.290-02:302017-10-14T22:22:00.290-02:30No problem Mr. Lahey, thanks for following up. A c...No problem Mr. Lahey, thanks for following up. A couple of points...<br /><br />1) I am aware it's an inflation rate calculator... my reference to "2% interest rate" in the last sentence of post 20:06 was a typo, I meant to state "2% INFLATION rate", apologies for any confusion.<br />2) When you load the inflation calculator webpage, the inflation rate text-field is defaulted to 3%. If you change that to a 2% inflation rate over 50 years, you'll come up with the same number I did, $371K. I used 2% in that example so as to maintain consistency with the assumed inflation rate used in PlanetNL's submission. So in terms of buying power the ratio is thus... a dollar in 2017 would be equivalent to 37 cents in 2067, assuming a constant 2% inflation rate.<br /><br />So yes, I think I understand now what you're getting at... from your most recent example, the $2.6M accrued from investment over 20 years would actually have the equivalent buying power of $1.7M in 2017 dollars due to inflation. <br /><br />But with regards to that, does this mean that PlanetNL's analysis is fundamentally flawed? If so, is there some way to take these factors into account so as to salvage PlanetNL's analysis?<br /><br />I also understand the perhaps more ominous point you make about the disastrous impact a spike in interest rates would have. NL's current fiscal state is a house of cards... a false economy precariously built on a horrendously bloated public sector and fiscally crippled by government-funded boondoggles, at a dangerously high risk of insolvency should interests begin rising. <br /><br />And Robert, no worries, apology accepted... I too may have over-reacted a tad. No doubt we're all on edge and more than a little PO'ed that NL politicians have proven... yet again... that their ability to provide competent, accountable governance is hopelessly beyond their capabilities, and it's the taxpayers who'll be stuck holding the bag while these oily culprits and their cronies get off scot-free and retire to their Florida condos... I'm poisoned with it... absolutely infuriated by the thought of it. <br />Buster Garvicknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-24987357821637652142017-10-14T15:00:24.741-02:302017-10-14T15:00:24.741-02:30Most in Nfld were not educated in the concept of k...Most in Nfld were not educated in the concept of karma. But I recall John Lennon and the Beatles travelling to India, for enlightenment. And Lennon, promoting peace, while later being on the FBI watch list. <br /> And there is a blank on the history of Jesus from age 12 to 30, and some speculate he travelled to India. And St Thomas is said to have set up teaching Christianity in India.<br /> And Ghandi, adopted Christian principles of peaceful protest, like our Land protectors from Labrador) to help rid India of the British Empire. So seems to have gone full circle.<br /> But some Karma mottos:<br /> No need for revenge.....just sit back and wait.......those who hurt you will eventually screw up themselves, and if you`re lucky, God will let you watch. ( Must mean the Inquiry will be televised, or online)<br /> <br />One`s karma effects one`s happiness, the effect may not be immediate , but later, and even to future lives.<br /><br />The karma principle can be understood as a principle of physhology and habit. Karma seeds habits, and habits creates the nature of man. The idea of karma may be associated with the notion of a person`s character. <br />Karma is a natural law that produces consequences.<br /><br />Forgive the person and their actions, never give in to hate,<br />set it free, and Karma will take care of what is meant to be. <br /> <br />While karma is not taught as part of Christianity, yet the verse 700 years before Christ (and whatever deed he does, that he will reap) is almost identical to ` What one sows one will reap`<br /><br /> So there you have it...........Karma....my research having been prompted by Bruno...... <br /><br />PFAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-33972744397561166402017-10-14T14:42:57.217-02:302017-10-14T14:42:57.217-02:30My humble apologies Buster. My passion for compete...My humble apologies Buster. My passion for competent Cost Engineering, (a catastrophic and disappointing failure at NALCOR) should not have been directed at you personally.Robert G Holmeshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05356463540446993862noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-6429509909094044152017-10-14T14:16:12.712-02:302017-10-14T14:16:12.712-02:30Thanks Bernard. I'm assuming also that the age...Thanks Bernard. I'm assuming also that the age of cheap and sustaining hydro from QU/NL, exported economically to New England is reaching it's peak. Just a few rivers remain to be economically harnessed, but the reliable transmission right of way to the South will remain through QU. Not enough understanding of the importance of grid and smart grid technology. Proximity of distributed generation to this reliable grid; thermal, wind, co-gen, solar, etc. is and will be the main focus of power engineering for the next 50years and beyond. NL and QU need to put the past acrimony aside and join forces over the remaining opportunities.Robert G Holmeshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05356463540446993862noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-66992888626791878302017-10-14T14:13:39.637-02:302017-10-14T14:13:39.637-02:30I am certainly a fan of Vardy and UG. I have occas...I am certainly a fan of Vardy and UG. I have occasionally thought of a call into CBC or VOCM .......but didn`t. <br /> I am more or less a technobabble guy, which jouranlists are not, which allowed Nalcor to BS the media. <br /> MF is a technical nightmare, and Smith for 5 years combined a few facts with mostly fake news to keep the uninformed ignorant of the pending doom of the project.<br /> I have thought of a debate or presentation at the Harris Centre....with Vardy, Sullivan , and someone esle with technical expertise vs Nalcor . <br /> But Nalcor has admitted the boondoggle........but the govn and power companies continues with deceit.<br /> So .......is Smithy finally dead! 5 years the Telegram gave him free reign, and never once fact checked anything he said and they let him repeat his BS weekly.<br /> His favourite words for the MF naysayers were that they comprised the LUNATIC fringe. Power at 60 cents per kwh cost ..........who was the lunatic!<br />PF Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-57153304816282599752017-10-14T12:56:20.644-02:302017-10-14T12:56:20.644-02:30Robert, I am not really competent to comment on th...Robert, I am not really competent to comment on the article. I am sure you know as much on the subject as I do. I was involved in finance and had nothing to do with the core business. I will say that historically, most jurisdictions (like Ontario) have a very strong preference for electricity generated within their boundaries. Most jurisdictions are loathe to depend on others for such a critical input. That is especially true in the case of electricity generated thousands of kilometres away. In addition, there is large and growing opposition to unsightly electricity transmission towers which makes delivery of that electricity quite a challenge. Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07341048560339265318noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-22690879608674874672017-10-14T12:39:20.600-02:302017-10-14T12:39:20.600-02:30My apologies Mr Garvick, I only saw this now. The...My apologies Mr Garvick, I only saw this now. The calculator you are referring to is actually an inflation calculator not an interest rate calculator - so 20 years from now $1M today will only buy today’s equivalent of 670k (using your calculator I don’t get the same answer as you do) of stuff in 20 years. Interest calculations go the other way. http://keisan.casio.com/exec/system/1232679460<br /><br />If I invest $1M today at 5% it will be worth $2.6M in 20 years. If you want the “real” or inflation-adjusted future value assuming 2% inflation as in your calculation, you multiply the $2.6M times .670. So my point is that you shouldn’t add $1M today and $1M in 20 years because they are not equivalent. And, $1M today + $1M in 20 years is not equal to $2M in 50 years - these figures cannot be compared in any meaningful way. Therefore, the future streams have to be discounted by the interest rate in order for the amounts to be understood. <br /><br />My point really is that the burden of MF is actually pretty easy to calculate although you have to make some very bold assumptions.I was trying to see what the worst case looks like - so I assume it is a stranded asset financed with $15B in debt but that generates no revenue (this is only to simplify what the worst case looks like - it is not my forecast - I am not competent to judge what the final situation will be) . That represents a doubling of NL’s net debt to about 100% of GDP. However, since interest rates are so low, say 3%, the annual burden on the NL budget would be about $450M or about 1.5% of GDP - in addition to current debt service of, say, 5% of GDP. That is a big burden but less than the debt service burden borne in the 90’s when interest rates were so high. My point was that even the worst case is bearable UNLESS interest rates rise. Now, let me repeat - interest rates are a big IF - also, I find the current deficit reduction scheme is not credible to begin with. Finally, I think the burden of public sector pensions in NL is underestimated because they assume a very high rate of return on the pension funds. <br /><br />Therefore, NL may have trouble financing such large deficits. That is why I agree that in the worst case scenario, public services will have to be cut, perhaps dramatically. In any event, I think that is a more reasonable, clear and intuitive way of looking at the subject.<br /><br />Sincerely hope that helps. <br /><br /><br /><br />Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07341048560339265318noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-76966940947933493402017-10-14T12:32:49.331-02:302017-10-14T12:32:49.331-02:30Is it time for for an ethics chat.......after all,...Is it time for for an ethics chat.......after all, good governance implies that those that govern are good people, or relatively good.<br /> Will it be Karma that Costco will not open by Xmas at Galway, or few house starts there yet........or the cause of the boondoggle.....<br /> Karma is a term , a spiritual principle, about the cycle of cause and effect..... that is, what happens to a person happens because they caused it with their own actions.<br /> Karma is an action, but also an intent.A good action creates a good karma, as does good intent. A bad action or bad intend cause bad karma.<br /> This concept originated in India, and is a bit difficult to define, but a part of several major religions. Some believe that karma extends to the past, present and future lives, and operates independent of a deity or process of divine judgement.<br /> It is a concept, and a common theme is its principle of causality.<br /><br /> A 7th century BCE verse says:<br /><br />Now as a man is like this or like that<br />According as he acts, and according as he behaves, so will he be<br />A man of good acts will become good, a man of bad acts , bad<br />He becomes pure by pure deeds, bad by bad deeds<br />And here they say that a person consists of desires<br />And as he desires, so is his will<br />And as is his desires, so is his deed<br />And whatever deeds he does, that he will reap.<br /><br />PF<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-451523054896227572017-10-14T12:18:49.967-02:302017-10-14T12:18:49.967-02:30I have done a story with Nififoruk, read his book ...I have done a story with Nififoruk, read his book on Weibo Ludwig, and followed his Site C exposes. He is a good journalist, unafraid to go wherever the story leads him. I hope he and Vardy hit it off this weekend with the striking similarities between Site C and MF.Bruno Marcocchiohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08076165212559914463noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-32155108860366469882017-10-14T12:17:16.557-02:302017-10-14T12:17:16.557-02:30Bernard Lahey
Please comment on the relevance of ...Bernard Lahey<br /><br />Please comment on the relevance of this ROB article to Muskrat, Lower Churchill, Romaine, four remaining rivers, screwed up by 1927 Southern Boundary, etc.<br /><br />https://beta.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/industry-news/energy-and-resources/hydro-quebec-aims-to-export-to-us-northeast-as-nuclear-reactors-close/article36586320/Robert G Holmeshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05356463540446993862noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-79946215183344292632017-10-14T12:11:01.208-02:302017-10-14T12:11:01.208-02:30There is no doubt that they must be feeling sensit...There is no doubt that they must be feeling sensitive that the forum has become cover for trolls like "Smith". Muskrat is so divisive, and the Telegram has been unwilling to do what this blog does--investigate and inform--that ending the forum relieves them of the justifiable "fake news" moniker. Good work.<br /><br />Have you thought about pitching CBC radio to do a phone in with David Vardy or with UG himself? They may be too modest to do it themselves. This out of control project threatens the fiscal viability of NL and needs investigation and an audit now. Stress the urgency and do it more than once.<br /><br />Folks have mentioned pitching the Fifth Estate and W5. The more that do it the more likely a producer will pay attention. This blog is a researchers dream. The elements of the story and the fraud researched and documented.Bruno Marcocchiohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08076165212559914463noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-39289960304791451942017-10-14T12:09:01.320-02:302017-10-14T12:09:01.320-02:30This comment has been removed by the author.Bruno Marcocchiohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08076165212559914463noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-32698299932342646642017-10-14T12:01:37.030-02:302017-10-14T12:01:37.030-02:30For those interested in low cost efficient heating...For those interested in low cost efficient heating, and my monitoring of performance for the Avalon:<br />Recent data, reported here, showed about 95.00 cost for heat and AC for 6 month period from Apr 1 to sept 30.<br /> If one looks at the warmest 6 months, it appears it would be June 1 to Oct 30. Apr and May is rather cold in Nfld, whereas Sept and Oct is usually pretty good.<br /> Oct is only half way through, but projecting from May 1 to Oct 30, the electricity use drops from 95.00 to about 78.00, and possible May 15 to Nov 15 may be the lowest for this year.<br /> June has the sun highest in the sky, but ground temperature lags behind several months, was at a max Sept 2, so warmer ground reduced the heating load for Sept and Oct more than one might expect, than going by the sun in the sky. Ground temperature low point, about 43 F occurs not in Jan, Feb or Mar , but April.........so leads to heating bills relatively high for April and May.<br /> This heat timing should jive with Holyrood oil burning ramping up form Oct 15 onward. Afterall, growing domestic heat load was he rationale for Muskrat, and Nalcor could see no better way than unreliable power at 60 cents per kwh. That was `world class` Nalcor! World class tribe out to screw the middle class for 50 years.<br />Winston Adams<br /> Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-71011840782963910682017-10-14T11:21:47.272-02:302017-10-14T11:21:47.272-02:30"Kill Site C"
Maybe you should invite N..."Kill Site C"<br /><br />Maybe you should invite Nikiforuk to write about the Muskrat also.<br /><br />https://thetyee.ca/News/2017/10/13/Kill-Site-C-Former-Hydro-CEO-Tells-Commission/<br /><br />David Vardy is presenting to the same Commission this weekend. Thank you David, in behalf of the people of BC., for your valued servicesRobert G Holmeshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05356463540446993862noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-72052184789844655712017-10-13T23:43:20.266-02:302017-10-13T23:43:20.266-02:30Robert, I never took any "Engineering Economy...Robert, I never took any "Engineering Economy" courses to "pay attention" to ... I pursued degrees in physics and maths, and post-grad studies in applied fluid dynamics. So if you're trying to make me feel stupid because I didn't pursue a particular field of academics, it's not working... in fact, you're only succeeding at coming across as condescendingly smug, which is.. suffice to say.. a rather unpleasant personality trait.<br /><br />And you still haven't answered the question, so your communication skills re: knowledge transfer could use much improvement as well. Buster Garvicknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-40476943528060603342017-10-13T21:51:11.001-02:302017-10-13T21:51:11.001-02:30Bruno, do you think that my calling out the Telegr...Bruno, do you think that my calling out the Telegram to fact check,and my data countering and exposing Smith as two faced, ( him using Jesus phrase.....the truth shall set you free) influenced the Telegram to terminate comments........timing is odd! And the Telegram let him go with his BS for years.<br /> Their prior restriction on comments reduced comments 90 percent, but Smith always got through with his propaganda.<br />PFAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-80266034474008863792017-10-13T21:22:08.860-02:302017-10-13T21:22:08.860-02:30PENG2
I get your point, that we are so far in, tha...PENG2<br />I get your point, that we are so far in, that it may make little sense not to complete, as we still own the asset rather than the Feds and Emera. <br /> And if not operated, you suggest we are off the hook legally........not sure about that as to power contracts with Emera from our island power ( I assume that is conditional only if MF is operational.......so no liability there you suggest.<br /> That close to 15 billion is spent, and must be paid back, but to be non operational sounds like a joke........unless<br /> Others deals may be made later to make it operational, if made safe and can give some positive return on the 15 billion, whether with HQ or other opportunity, or Fortis.......<br /> I do not discount that completion may make sense, and no operation pending opportunities......in the USA a major hydro facility was built on the Columbia River, in the 1930s, that most said was a unnecessary waste and useless........until Japan attacked Pearl Hr, and that power was then very valuable on the west coast.<br /> A bit of a Hail Mary, but you infer operation or non operation is outside your range of suggestions......as this is beyond what is necessary now........completion.<br /> Not what I call a Strong finish........but a finish.<br /> Somewhere along this path I expect the need for external financial help to keep the island solvent. <br /> Would you expect the asset to be sold off cheap......rather than lost by default.<br /> If so, how cheap........maybe 1 billion, or you would not speculate.<br />PF Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-55500581484370507742017-10-13T21:15:38.337-02:302017-10-13T21:15:38.337-02:30Buster, maybe you were not paying attention during...Buster, maybe you were not paying attention during the Engineering Economy course; Here is a starter;<br /><br />https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Equivalent_annual_costRobert G Holmeshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05356463540446993862noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-9309572395461063332017-10-13T20:34:53.570-02:302017-10-13T20:34:53.570-02:30Anony @ 14:24:
Easy to find the recruiting compani...Anony @ 14:24:<br />Easy to find the recruiting companies and their owners---all the MF eligible recruiters are listed on the Nalcor website, a simple CADO search or in Ontario etc will yield all the owners/directors.<br /><br />Also, make sure to check the Nalcor ATIPPA releases---an owner of a particular recruiting company has an interesting connection to the project. And if you still have a stomach, you can do a mathematical analysis to see which recruiting companies get the highest rates for particular positions---the info to do all this is on Nalcors website, easily available.<br /><br />PF @ 13:02:<br />Either missed or not read closely---I have posted the ~7 reasons why MF cannot be stopped several times here, however you have missed my point so I will recap:<br />1) default on federal loan guarantee<br />2) power guarantee to EMERA<br />3) cash positive contractors<br />4) work status<br />5) construction contract cancellation costs<br />6) site mothballing/remediation costs once contractors leave site<br />7) misc close out costs<br /><br />In the end, it would not the Newfie joke to spend $15B on something to not operate; it would be for opting to spend $12-14B on something the feds/EMERA would take over via default and we payback the sunk costs. Right now, at the end of the day we are paying $2-3B for MF, the other $10-12B is already spent/guaranteed to be spent.<br /><br />PENG2<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com