tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post5326007159840543935..comments2023-10-25T07:29:40.789-02:30Comments on UNCLE GNARLEY: PADDY DALY SPUTTERS CATHY BENNETT’S CAMPAIGN Des Sullivanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02566013585647491614noreply@blogger.comBlogger10125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-78080349421850537482013-10-03T11:28:05.462-02:302013-10-03T11:28:05.462-02:30Soot Boots, I agree that contractors and buyers wh...Soot Boots, I agree that contractors and buyers who plan to flip their house in a few years will avoid efficiency improvements. Codes are now more strict and it depends how well they are enforced. What was a high standard in 1985, a r2000 is now the minimum standard. New house elsewhere are Net Zero, which may be the norm in 30 years, but before this will be efficient heating systems, which will likely be the norm in 10-15 years, but considerable uptake is happening. With this happening in this time frame it will seriously impact MF power need for the island going forward. Note the already slowing of demand and Holyrood production. The economics is about a 7 year payback , and half that if rebates paid 50 percent. Apparently 70 percent of buyers want to consider efficieny options that contractors are not offering.... so the interest is there, and consumers don't realize the high indirect cost of these high capital cost maga projects on their bill. Education and awareness is essential.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-13291796095747117312013-10-02T16:25:34.018-02:302013-10-02T16:25:34.018-02:30I hope it does work here but really don't thin...I hope it does work here but really don't think we have an invest now, save later mentality. Drive around and look at new homes under construction and you will see vinyl siding going on top of tyvek wrapped OSB. Hardly what I would call energy efficiency. I am willing to bet that as long as electric baseboard heaters are cheap up front any sort of rebate program will not be popular. I hope I am proven wrong and that we can all be persuaded to switch to modern efficient heating systems but possibility does not equate to probability.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03044966985727657714noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-35343104032192310502013-10-02T15:34:36.234-02:302013-10-02T15:34:36.234-02:30Soot Boots, capital investment for efficiency is a...Soot Boots, capital investment for efficiency is a about one fifth of muskrat costs, via rebates to customers that is cost effective from the massive reduction in energy use. This seems socialist, and should be a good fit, and yet the capitalist USA are far ahead of us in doing this. The programs there work and needs awareness here to understand why it is so popular elsewhere. Your comment suggests you don't understand how it works. Without the rebates, you are correct and it is a harder sell. Even Fortis , British Columbia is way ahead on this. Winston AdamsAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-15808174052108064822013-10-01T18:51:22.218-02:302013-10-01T18:51:22.218-02:30I am not going to hold out hope for the efficiency...I am not going to hold out hope for the efficiency improvements that come from new heating systems: that kind of capital investment will be a harder sell to individual consumers than it will be to the government. What I think will happen is that people will go without electric heat. More wood burning, more rooms with no heaters on, and overall colder homes. Sounds grim but in the UK rising heating bills, regardless of source, have meant colder homes. If you want to see the future, look closer at the past. Watching the Celtic tiger doesn't hurt either. A lot to be learned from their speculative development economic experience....Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03044966985727657714noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-23310649704613969832013-10-01T15:53:22.220-02:302013-10-01T15:53:22.220-02:30AC, yes power demand will drop with price increas...AC, yes power demand will drop with price increases, but also drops with conversion to efficient heating systems, look at what New England is achieving at one sixth the cost of MF power. And both of those will hit together, as price of power goes up , more conversions will follow. Winston AdamsAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-66766138753768888312013-10-01T11:25:37.767-02:302013-10-01T11:25:37.767-02:30Nalcor has had a 50% load growth forecast since Br...Nalcor has had a 50% load growth forecast since Brian Tobin's abortive 1998 deal with HQ, and it certainly wasn't correct then. It would be interesting to compare their forecast against reality, just to see the level of expertise available to them. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-63492278875096641202013-09-30T14:32:26.038-02:302013-09-30T14:32:26.038-02:30The problem since the beginning is that the power ...The problem since the beginning is that the power has been sold to emera, while it was ear marked for labrador mining, while it was committed in a PPA to NL's. the bottom line is that it is expensive power that everyone wants, but no one wants to pay for. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-4869183489033637462013-09-30T13:59:33.441-02:302013-09-30T13:59:33.441-02:30Assumed 50% demand increase is criminally negligen...Assumed 50% demand increase is criminally negligent on Nalcor's part for the justification of Muskrat Falls. Where are the models for various demand projections? CBPP CbC probably won't be operational by 2015, how many MWs does that represent?<br /><br />Can this supposed demand use any of the 20,000 GWH of Upper Churchill power in 2041? Any short term energy demand increase will be nullified by the closure of current industrial users. <br /><br />Wade Locke in his Harris center presentation stated for every 20% energy cost increase there is a 5% DECREASE. 5000 GWH of utility consumption @ 16.4 cents kWh (current 11 cents residential) is 50% higher therefor demand should drop by 12.5% (625 GWH). MF could easily start out at 22 cents kWh (DG3 #s still unavailable) current demand could plummet 25% under this scenario. <br /><br />62GJ or 17,222 kWh is the average consumption in NL households - 16.4 cent rates represent a $930 INCREASE for the same amount of power in 2017.<br /><br />NS will charge 1 cent kWh tariff fee for export power - 3.5 - 4 cents is more like 2.5 - 3 cents.<br /><br />330MW @ 5 cents $144 million in export sales @ 2.5 cents $72M = $2.5 billion in export sales over the 35 year shelf life of ML combined with Emera's $1.5B is $4.0 billion for 60% of MF rated capacity. $4.0B won't even be 40% of the final MF cost, good luck financing with such paltry PPAs. <br /><br />$200 bbl oil(insane projection), replacing Holyrood, getting around Quebec and exponentially increasing demand were the 4 main MF planks. <br /><br />Oil currently $108 - to reach NLPCs $125 budged oil @ 2% annual cost increase we will have to wait 8 more years in 2021. With such inaccurate oil forecasting can NL residents trust NNLPCs on a FIFTY year projection?<br /><br />Replacing Holyrood with cleaner alternative hasn't been researched very well (if at all) by Muskrat opponents. <br /><br />Quebec legal issues aren't some minor pain as CB has suggested: firm power sans WMA isn't even 200MW/824MW - not even enough for the Avalon's demand. <br /><br />Business case when from dubious in 2010 to unfathomable in 2013. <br /><br />Nalcor has put the future energy demand cart ahead of the current demand horse.AChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06779383664665696092noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-66344075938424896962013-09-30T12:27:29.680-02:302013-09-30T12:27:29.680-02:30Good summary. Daly deserves credit for figuring hi...Good summary. Daly deserves credit for figuring his way through the smoke screens around Muskrat Madness. I was particularly impressed when Daly responded to Bennett who claimed that the ML would be an asset in future even if it lost money now by pointing out that submarine cables only last about 35 years. Daly has been doing his homework.Tom adamshttp://www.tomadamsenergy.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-62071871161929474092013-09-30T12:05:18.557-02:302013-09-30T12:05:18.557-02:30Well done, Uncle Gnarley and well done yourself Pa...Well done, Uncle Gnarley and well done yourself Paddy Daly! This Muskrat fiasco is like big bad ass boys pushing a very large boulder down a mountain towards an unsuspecting community. Of course there are no brakes, no safe way of stopping the boulder and the community is devastated. The harm that is done is unrecoverable. When asked later why they pushed the rock down the mountain, not one of the less then brilliant boys could come up with any idea of why they done it. "It was just there, asking to be pushed!" "We did not think it through and it seemed like a good idea at the time!" Asinine!<br /> Doughttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07009185526097730661noreply@blogger.com