tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post676499047994234867..comments2023-10-25T07:29:40.789-02:30Comments on UNCLE GNARLEY: PREMIER, A PROVINCE-WIDE ADDRESS IS ESSENTIALDes Sullivanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02566013585647491614noreply@blogger.comBlogger9125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-10035440846495357322013-09-15T21:06:57.306-02:302013-09-15T21:06:57.306-02:30Back in June Ed Martin held the AGM for Nalcor. A...Back in June Ed Martin held the AGM for Nalcor. Although there was no written text, or slide pack, Ed Martin gave a speech which outlined the future plans for Nalcor. Gull Island featured in this speech, but was that it would be further into the future before this part of the project happened. Now we have the premier and her Quebec counterpart forming a committee to talk about Labrador hydro electricity. Why has this moved forward?<br /><br />The reason is simple. Gull Island will solve the 2 biggest issues for Muskrat Falls. First the WMA will be part of any agreement on Gull Island with Quebec as a partner (as with the Grime deal WMA will be a firm requirement). As it stands HQ will likely win the case on the WMA. Without drawing power from the Upper Churchill facility then Nalcor will likely not be able to shut down Holyrood. The Muskrat Falls business case fails without an effective WMA. Developing Gull Island will ensure that Holyrood can close. <br /><br />Secondly, Gull Island will provide more power for Nova Scotian's to ensure the UARB condition can be met. This will ensure the Federal Loan Garuntee. <br /><br />With a deal on Gull Island Dunderdale will solve the 2 largest challenges for the Muskrat Falls project, and likely also provide a life line for her own political life. She will be eager to make a deal on Gull Island. <br /><br />Can she do this, where so many have failed before her? <br /><br />Dunderdale is starting the negotiations with Quebec on Gull Island in a position of considerable weakness. This is rarely a good starting point, and Hydro Quebec are not really novice negotiators. <br /><br />I expect a deal by Christmas on Gull Island, to save Muskrat. <br /><br />High risk politics, with billions of tax payers money on the line. How did we get here? <br /> Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-78034979528303572942013-09-15T12:11:20.937-02:302013-09-15T12:11:20.937-02:30Cyril, Russell has twice written that it is too la...Cyril, Russell has twice written that it is too late to stop this project. If it is stopped, it doesn't mean all of 2 billion is lost, as much engineering work done may be an asset if in the future , a decade or two, that the economics may justify proceeding. The current realities don't justify a continuation of spending some 10 billion. Russell has advocated that if this was private money, they would pull the plug on this, but because it is government, it is different and that it is too late. This to me is not logical. Why the different standard? Government and citizens are informed and respond to media and editorials. When Russell says it too late to stop, he influences readers to accept that position. To proceed as a make work project or other rationale is irresponsible if the economics are so bad and the risk so great. So Russell continues to favour this project proceeding, and time will tell if he is comfortable with his opinion. It is something like continuing to build more branch rail lines in Nfld in the early 1930s while facing financial ruin. I notice Tom Marshall says this power project is the Premiers greatest achievement, but doesn't mention MUSKRAT FALLS. Perhaps we should call it Kathy Falls? To not associate Kathy with Muskrat is like ....Muskrat has become a dirty word. And I suppose when Kathy says the USA governors say "if we have the juice, they have the market", and she ignores the fact that we will need to sell power at a loss.... then it is misleading to Nflders. Meanwhile the USA governors are advancing their investments in efficiency, and other measures, which has sound economics, which Kathy completely ignores for our province. Oh what tangles webs we weave....... Personally, I start to feel pity for our Premier...who seems to be in denial of all the events that have turned negative for this project, but who hopes for vindication. I guess as captain of the ship, she will have the glory or the blame. Either way we will have the bill, which keeps getting bigger. Maybe our Premier and Tom has vision that I and others should admire without understanding it? Anyone for fracking in the St. Johns watershed? It could add to our energy warehouse assets. And that's a good thing , right? Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-51071182637544442272013-09-11T19:59:32.397-02:302013-09-11T19:59:32.397-02:30Winston, Russell Wangersky is trotting out the com...Winston, Russell Wangersky is trotting out the commonly accepted "wisdom" that this project is too far advanced... if he is indeed writing that it is too late to pull out. It is by no means too late, but it is too late to stop the expenditure of at least TWO billion dollars. I would guess that amount will have been spent by the end of 2014...but, it is still not too late to pull the plug.<br /><br />It would be very costly, and a terrible waste of our financial nest egg from high oil revenues prior to 2011-12, but will be, in my opinion, the lesser of two evils. To go ahead now, with all of the obstacles that crop up almost daily, is ill-advised to the say the least... and bordering on criminal negligence. Further, the final cost, if it goes beyond the current estimate of 8 billion plus, would only exacerbate an already awful deal. In that sense, it would be a great relief to lose only 2 billion.<br /><br />On balance, a loss of 2 billion is less damaging than a final project cost of over 10 billion dollars and perhaps much more. A Royal Commission and public disgrace is the least that Ed Martin, Gilbert Bennett, and the entire PC caucus should expect from such a process. In my opinion, they deserve whatever public humiliation can be meted out for having sold the people of the province a bill of goods. Cyril Rogersnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-43787710183613817972013-09-11T15:41:44.305-02:302013-09-11T15:41:44.305-02:30The difference between your opinion and Russell W...The difference between your opinion and Russell Wnagersky's is that Russell has previously written it is too late to stop Muskrat Falls. So he's ok to keep spending the million per day. I think you are right and Russell is wrong....perhaps Russell is unwilling to admit he may be wrong, and support your view. But his calling for Dunderdale to go seems to suggest he's leaning on a call for spending on Muskrat to stop. When will Russell make that call? Probably waiting for more "doubt" to be indicated by the general public? Russell should reassess and confirm or change his previous assessment. I like your reference to Squires. That was not long before we had to give up control and hand over our affairs to the British... and 15 years of Commission Government. I wonder how many bought and read Peter Cashins account, recently published? Those who ignore history is likely to repeat it.... Winston AdamsAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-40794789801517088982013-09-11T11:25:13.992-02:302013-09-11T11:25:13.992-02:30Good luck getting the PUB to do anything...Good luck getting the PUB to do anything...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-53459075229696112412013-09-11T10:42:22.649-02:302013-09-11T10:42:22.649-02:30http://bondpapers.blogspot.ca/2012/10/the-simple-l...http://bondpapers.blogspot.ca/2012/10/the-simple-litmus-test-nlpoli.html<br /><br />Des... if electricity was sold at market rates the people would be on the hook for about 300 million a year in losses. That is before the equity is repaid. It is only our rates which is making this feasible. It is our rates which is providing the rate of return to Nalcor. <br /><br />The problem with this entire project is that Nalcor and the Provincial government, where propped up on oil revenue, and divorced from economic reality. <br /><br />They have us in a real pickle. I think the PUB should step in a complete a review of the project, and whatever decision Nalcor will make w.r.t. the UARB. It should be televised, and politicians and Nalcor executives should be taken to task for their tunnel vision. <br /><br />Good corporate governance,open political debate and gated management processes should prevent this situation.<br /><br />This government should be held to task for this debacle. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-69969751713766475772013-09-11T10:18:24.505-02:302013-09-11T10:18:24.505-02:30Shutting the project down is the only answer for t...Shutting the project down is the only answer for this financial cesspool. It is going off the rails, with new revelations and obstacles cropping every day, yet the Premier and her cabal of weak-kneed Cabinet, keep plugging on...in the face of harsh reality.<br /><br />They can't, or won't, open their eyes to all of these realities...and we, the people, will suffer the awful consequences, unless somebody develops the intestinal fortitude to say, "WE WERE WRONG!". This project is NOT the greatest thing since sliced bread and it is high time this administration did what is best for the people of the province.Cyril Rogersnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-31613651850436696612013-09-11T10:08:00.673-02:302013-09-11T10:08:00.673-02:30The silence from the government and Nalcor is trul...The silence from the government and Nalcor is truly deafening. This project is in real trouble. We need to see a real plan. I think your assessment is dead on. <br /><br />Now we have the premier coming back from the meeting of Premiers and Governors, spouting the same tired words "If you got the juice, we got the use". Yet due to Bill 61, the FERC export license is very much in jeopardy. Not to mention electricty is only selling for 4 cents. <br /><br />The bottom line is if all Muskrat Falls power was sold at market rates it would be insufficient to pay for the interest, let alone any repayment of principal. <br /><br />A royal commission will be the inevitable result. Hopefully then Nalcor and the old politicians will then have to explain their decisions in public, and would be exposed to a level of cross examination. <br /><br />Excellent post. Truly excellent. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-24438823590763716622013-09-11T08:58:27.617-02:302013-09-11T08:58:27.617-02:30We are into Royal Commission territory - how did t...We are into Royal Commission territory - how did this happen, and how do we ensure it never, ever happens again. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com