tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post2309375038198018932..comments2023-10-25T07:29:40.789-02:30Comments on UNCLE GNARLEY: FIFTEEN TAKEAWAYS PHASE I MUSKRAT FALLS INQUIRYDes Sullivanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02566013585647491614noreply@blogger.comBlogger119125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-64438075216098779562019-03-25T12:05:33.983-02:302019-03-25T12:05:33.983-02:30Watching Mr. Meaney's testimony: If this does...Watching Mr. Meaney's testimony: If this does not bring the RCMP knocking to investigate fraud, I don't know what does.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-63370517166720304782019-03-25T00:18:06.318-02:302019-03-25T00:18:06.318-02:30Winston,I agree with you 100% and am thinking abou...Winston,I agree with you 100% and am thinking about my next purchase being EV.I wish that the provincial gov.will promote their use and provide incentives to people wishing to go this route.TMhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01213412865108374357noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-65240248552683933682019-03-24T20:13:19.959-02:302019-03-24T20:13:19.959-02:30PENG2, infrastructure for EVs, estimated at 100,00...PENG2, infrastructure for EVs, estimated at 100,000 per charging station ( I assume each station has multiple chargers, seems like chicken feed as to costs.<br /> Update and slow to adopt depends on cost effectiveness, awareness and promotion. For minisplits Nfld power survey showed 5 % was aware from power companies and 60 % from relative and friends. That was several years ago, and Nfld power still misleading as to reasonable expectations from best practices. So why are we slow to adopt to good new technology? PLASTIC ON YOUR WINDOWS? As a shareholder, complain to Fortis! Are you aware of the many billions most all mgs now devoting to EV models? They are gearing up for this to be main stream, so why should we be late, and we with a surplus of green energy if MF operates. Must we assume we are to be last in the country to adopt this ? Can we not be like Norway for EVs? You seem to send a negative signal, despite its advantages. A realist you might say? Sounds defeatist..... that Nflders are this way , and no changing it? Ok , so we wait for the ocean to rise, because we chose to do nothing meaningful? We have 11 years. We start in year 15 from now?<br />Winston<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-42254209693065765362019-03-24T19:19:47.172-02:302019-03-24T19:19:47.172-02:301.I suggest the most use much more than 1500 a yea...1.I suggest the most use much more than 1500 a year in gas, maybe like 3000. So may save 2500 a year on fuel? Also low maintenance.<br />2. I have a battery pack in a 2005 Prius, zero corrosion after 14 years, so I expect batteries are well protected on EVs. Battery was my biggest concern back then, and proved not an issue..<br />3. How many want to drive 10 hrs non stop? <br />4 .Chevy Volt is discontinued, as more are going for all electric<br />5 Most all driving is local of medium distance, not to the ferry<br />6 Feds now have rebates of 5000.00, and for fun I will give 500 rebate to first 2, reading this, that buys a Leaf, just to piss you off. Maybe the prov govn will come with a rebate too, to promote Synapse electrification.<br />7 Trucks too are going EV, even very large trucks that operate in mining......can't get much bigger than that.<br />8 Adoption in Nfld was supposed to be terrible for Minisplits, now most want them.<br />9 New Leaf about 36800 list before discount. The extended range with 60kwh battery is 43,000 list plus tax. Standard model less fed rebate is about 32,000 , not 50,000.<br />10 Perhaps you work for the oil companies? Or car Mfg that don't make EVs?<br />11. Clearly you care not as to GHG emissions.<br />Winston<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-26866411619557693792019-03-24T19:08:27.750-02:302019-03-24T19:08:27.750-02:30No need for Nalcor to tell about this. In the cour...No need for Nalcor to tell about this. In the court case about the block theory, the one involving water management, HQ's explained how and why they take little power during summer and much more during winter. All the idea behind a reservoir is that and UC has one of the biggest reservoir in the world.<br /><br />These documents being from the court, they can be trusted (as opposed to anything from Nalcor....)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-18556395081889964762019-03-24T16:52:31.052-02:302019-03-24T16:52:31.052-02:30Adoption will be terrible in Newfoundland. I have ...Adoption will be terrible in Newfoundland. I have perfectly good antiques that I can maintain indefinitely and I use about two tanks of gasoline a month. That costs me about $120/month or $1,500 a year. A new Nissan 2019 LEAF will cost me almost $50,000 + tax. <br /><br />The electric car will never pay for itself. I also wonder what our road salt will do to the battery pack. Tesla owners are complaining that the body work collects 30+ pounds of dirt and if this is salt/sand instead, the Mazda6 subframe recall will seem like a joke. (subframe failure at less than 10 years). I can see corroded battery packs shorting out.<br /><br />As for range, the 2019 LEAF might make it from St. John's to Clarenville and back if you drive the speed limit. It isn't a very practical thing for anyone that just wants to drive across the island on one go. The Chevy VOLT might work -- electric in town and gasoline most of the way to the ferry.<br /><br />We have no rebates. Mass adoption will only happen if the federal government phases out gasoline powered passenger cars and we have no choice but to go electric. That is probably inevitable. One possibility I foresee is that gasoline cars will be eliminated but there will be exemptions for trucks, and we will all drive trucks.<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-51820470366382996532019-03-24T16:37:44.959-02:302019-03-24T16:37:44.959-02:30I don't subscribe but am curious. Can you tell...I don't subscribe but am curious. Can you tells what they concluded?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-18519830437089732782019-03-24T15:25:06.953-02:302019-03-24T15:25:06.953-02:30Lol..right on Winston, remember the root cellar al...Lol..right on Winston, remember the root cellar all too well, and the last one I was involved in was concrete, double doors and a stack. Think you answered yourself the question you posed in the last scentence. Everything has to be better and bigger and the govt. is good for it and they didn't come through any hard times, and spent too much time on their computers, like Stratton, and forgot about common scense. Tks. Average Joe.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-32622001022860351842019-03-24T14:04:18.504-02:302019-03-24T14:04:18.504-02:30Engineering common sense: the root cellar, good te...Engineering common sense: the root cellar, good temperature and high RH, and everyone understood it worked well, and most put double doors to prevent freezing from high cold winds. Usually built on a place that didn't flood. Common sense engineering, no text book needed. And too the sod house of the Vikngs, and the igloo, where snow is an insulator, and too, Nflders banked snow around the walled foundations. <br /> 400 years ago the military, French and English , had engineers to design fortification. And Herod of the Bible and the pyramid builders had engineers in Egypt and Central America. So MUN is late in the game. <br /> Now , instead of "green houses" that use a lot of energy in winter, it seems insulated structures, no outside light, but LED lights, is the way, growing food, stacked levels in warehouses, in the cities ( and would seem maybe good for the Labrador coast towns, who right now is out of fresh vegitables. Not sure for the plan for weed growing here? <br /> So, common sense engineering and economics, sometimes needing a bit of specialized engineering. So why did your engineering friends get it wrong Joe? Biases?<br /> The last question posed by PENG2 is important, I think, as to what degree MFs is an engineering as well as a political failure. I think many , most engineers turned a blind eye ( much evidence of that) and went with the flow, full speed ahead, come hell or high water, or no water even, if the Spur fails. <br />Winston <br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-57819838049022778842019-03-24T12:32:45.976-02:302019-03-24T12:32:45.976-02:30With all due respect to you engineering guys, engi...With all due respect to you engineering guys, engineering economics, engineering practises etc. How about a little bit of engineering common scense, that's all it took to figure that out it was only nut cases that would go 1100 km to get the little bit of power we needed. As soon as I heard there was no economic case to be made to develop lower Churchill and sell it into the US market, or supply the 3 maratime provinces, I knew it was a boondoggle. And a couple of my engineering friends disagreed with me, but I told them what I taught anyway. But glad you guys confirmed with your engineering knowledge and skills what should be common science. Like Stan the man said, he could probably put a power line to the moon, but for what a reason and at what cost. Made about as much scense. Now on the Peckford pickle greenhouse, that might not have been such a crazy idea, considering today everyone is going green and wants to grow their own 50 lbs of veggies in their own back yard as part of food self suffucienty, not sure at what cost to all. But if these Hugh green houses were located in central and maybe the west coast, and grew all kinds of greens, not just cucumbers, for our own use and possible shipped elsewhere with economics of scale, it might not have been such a looney project. He only spent just over 20$ million a mere drop in the bucket. We might have Been growing all year round, yes maybe even using a few heat pumps, on cold days or when the sun didn't shine. Now everyone wants to grow but the Hugh green houses are all gone says Joe blow.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-39544959997503832172019-03-24T11:59:18.368-02:302019-03-24T11:59:18.368-02:30There must be a Nalcor employee somewhere that cou...There must be a Nalcor employee somewhere that could comfirm us how UC is currently operated during winter months.<br /><br />It would definitely appear logical that UC is operated flat out during winter months.<br /><br />If so, a win-win water management agreement should be easily reachable by both parties. MF could then operate close to flat out all winter months and provide reliable / predictable base load - at a time when we can use all the power we can get.<br /><br />Outside above identified winter months, a water mgt agreement is not really critical. Our island production capacity is plenty suficient alone to provide for both the island needs and Emera obligations.<br /><br />(However, we all agree with above poster that timing control of the supply of energy is a big deal - it's the big value driver)Ex-Military Engrhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15209511368820589727noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-27782123718713754422019-03-24T11:51:20.065-02:302019-03-24T11:51:20.065-02:30WA @ 11:21:
A short quote from you:
[start]
An ap...WA @ 11:21:<br /><br />A short quote from you:<br />[start]<br />An appropriate engineering economic analysis would have mothballed Mfs. <br /> I suggest economics is largely inseparable from engineering, except in basic concept design; see it it can work , then is it economic to scale up : consider Peckford's Piclke Palace. it could work but the engineering economics was not applied before going forward. <br />[end]<br /><br />100% agreed, but seeing as the detailed design wasn't complete, and the proper analysis (impartial Engineering and economic) wasn't done I am having a bit of trouble saying MF sanction is an Engineering failure - I think it was political failure instead.<br /><br />Overall, a small point to most but I think important to have clarified - the why decisions were made vs how decision were made vs quality of supporting info. I guess the question not 100% answered at the Inquiry yet is were the professionals responsible for sanctioning allowed to make independent decisions.<br /><br />PENG2Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-5298764019961772372019-03-24T11:49:33.463-02:302019-03-24T11:49:33.463-02:30Not only was Ed martin not an engineer, but the Na...Not only was Ed martin not an engineer, but the Nalcor Board begged for board members having technical engneering background to assist them , and this was not acted on. <br /> So, not by chance that SM was both an engineer and capable on economics, an ideal combination for power companies, and Nalcor. I suggest that SM is indeed using his engineering skills and experience and also knowledge of economics. His presentation at the Inquiry showed his ability in both the electrical and mechanical sphere,thought not an expert,he being a chemical engineer, but I am sure he has a much greater appreciation of the technical challenges of the project as compared to Ed martin. And too. as to high states poker, to deal with Emera and NS, like the Gambler song, when to hold them or fold them, Marshall would not have made the blunders Ed Martin did.....on both engineering and economics,.... Ed Martin was , to be blunt , an idiot, taking us to places, unknown as to high risk, that even Spock of Starteck would not go. Spock would consult with Scottie , in engineering, who wouuld say :too risky, Capt Kirk, our power supply would likely fail, the Enterprise might implode. <br /> Instead we have from Ed Martin, the gatekeepr: full speed ahead Warp 5, and make sure to hide the risks and escalating cost. And Gilbert Bennett is no Scottie , as to engineering. .....a cable guy experience background. <br />Winston Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-44978070253639009082019-03-24T11:21:23.001-02:302019-03-24T11:21:23.001-02:30I recall one textbook I had on Engineering Economi...I recall one textbook I had on Engineering Economics from the 1960s. Not a large part overall, but in practice, I suggest economics is a much larger part for many engineers, including MFs;<br /> Example: the power rates that can make or break an economic case, and whether to proceed, and elasticity effect should have been part of the engineering analysis........Straton ignored it.......was it beyond his understanding or scope of work?<br /> The cost effectiveness of DC vs AC, the ice loading on two conductors for DC instead of 3 for AC, and the spacing and strength of structures and foudations resulting from that. The impact of transmission losses on 1100 km of transmission to Soldiers Pond, ( at about 8% represents about 1 billion dollars of capital cost, 12.7 billion, for energy lost in transmission). The cost comparison for alterantives, including fuel for isolated vs interconnection, is a combination of engineering and economics, as to costs with much consideration of the economics. So too for wind generation and CDM, economics is a big part. So to for operating Holyrood for decades more or using gas turbines as backup , the economics is a big factor. All power company application t the PUB require detailed cost/ benefit analysis, done by engineering.<br /> For commercials and institutional buildings, designing for LEEDs low energy use is combining engineering and economics, why added costs is cost effective long term for the life of the building.<br /> Watts steam engine improvements were sold on the basis of reduce coal costs, so on the economics. So too Bombardier economics for fuel savings with efficient engineering......economics is a major factor for innovation and marketing and sales. <br /> I would suggest that most engineering is a dead end if not economic, short or long run, even EVs. An appropriate engineering economic analysis would have mothballed Mfs. <br /> I suggest economics is largely inseparable from engineering, except in basic concept design; see it it can work , then is it economic to scale up : consider Peckford's Piclke Palace. it could work but the engineering economics was not applied before going forward. <br /> That's my take.<br />Winston <br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-87031792265539974012019-03-24T10:38:07.729-02:302019-03-24T10:38:07.729-02:30I think 50% is a little optimistic,unless the purc...I think 50% is a little optimistic,unless the purchase prices drop.Like you say we are slow to adapt to anything new.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-38438598993340174772019-03-24T10:26:05.533-02:302019-03-24T10:26:05.533-02:30WA @ 23:44:
EVs are certainly going to have an in...WA @ 23:44:<br /><br />EVs are certainly going to have an increasing impact in the future. There are about 325k road vehicle registered in NL - how many would be replaced by EVs in the next 20yrs, say maybe 50%? If we reduce our transportation GHGs by say 25% that is definitely good, but how will NLers look at the cost impact of reduce revenues(if any revenues) and infrastructure investments when only 1 in 2 or 3 have an EV?<br /><br />No doubt there are benefits, but will NLers adopt to EVs in sufficient numbers to warrant the investment? Being that NLers are typically slow adopters I question if EVs will become mainstream here in the near future - I don't question the achievable benefits though.<br /><br />I think a bit of chicken and egg scenario for EVs replacing ICEs.<br /><br />PENG2<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-56669591169435724122019-03-24T10:13:38.759-02:302019-03-24T10:13:38.759-02:30Spot on Joe!!Spot on Joe!!Waynenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-81168793310845567262019-03-24T10:08:23.362-02:302019-03-24T10:08:23.362-02:30PF @ 19:38:
Maybe have a look a the Engineering c...PF @ 19:38:<br /><br />Maybe have a look a the Engineering curriculum and the definition of Engineering practice - economics is a minor part of the academic program in the past. I am not sure that the economic analysis aspect of MF is an Engineering function - though the development of demand models etc would most likely be. P-factors, risk, economic viability etc I learned though other academic undertakings - not sure of others.<br /><br />Agreed that to practice, an individual must be an Engineer - but Engineers don't always practice engineering. SM would be a prime example - he replaced EM in the same position, and the CEO position didn't magically become an Engineering position just because SM is an Engineer. So, is SM practicing Engineering as the CEO - I am not so sure.<br /><br />I would like comments by other Engineers on this distinction.<br /><br />PENG2 Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-82231234557563105432019-03-24T09:51:23.497-02:302019-03-24T09:51:23.497-02:30Winston @ 09:42
Wanna bet TW strings are being pul...Winston @ 09:42<br />Wanna bet TW strings are being pulled by DW ?Waynenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-28318903264964825872019-03-24T08:51:42.425-02:302019-03-24T08:51:42.425-02:30The fifteen take always from phase 1.....occurred ...The fifteen take always from phase 1.....occurred mainly on KD and EM watch. There will be other take always from phase 2 and phase 3. That will be on the watches , of KD, EM, TM, PD, DB and SM. These guys wanted to be premier, they campaigned, they defeated their opposition, they convinced us they they were the one to make us great. TM was the exception, he had power thrust upon him, he was a care taker premier, so he is in a slightly different catagory. The others wanted the glory of being premier, we gave it to them, along with all the responsibilities of running a province including muskrat falls. The other two unelected, CEO's obtained power and glory, not by being elected, but by accepting appointments and the responsibility that goes with a 12$ billion burning of the public treasury. Now many others in government and nalcor had responsibilities and contributed to the boondoggle wittingly or unwittingly. Their responsibilities and blame are much less. They were mainly working a job, that most of us do. As for they other elected MHA's they wanted the job, they convinced us they could do the job too, so they bear a great responsibility. But in our system the buck has to stop somewhere, and we have to hold these premiers, and CEO' s as where the buck stops and ultimate responsibility. One of the main objectives of the inquiry is who knew what when, so that the blame can be proportioned between the premier's and the CEO's. So we have heard, no one knew nothing, there was not a free flow of info between govts. and nalcor. They have been all on the stand, at different times, and pushing the buck to someone else. So what we need to see now, Mr. Comissiinear, is these guys not on the stand at different times but at the same time. We have seen as many as 4 individuals on the stand at once. Now we need to see, EM and KD on at the same time, EM and TM at the same time, EM and PD on at the same time. EM and DB on at the same time, SM and DB on at the same time. Let's get them face to face to get closer to the truth of who knew or did what when. Enough of passing the buck around. This can be done in phase 2, or maybe the judge is saving that for the final phase says Joe blow.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-21156449164737245472019-03-23T23:44:21.929-02:302019-03-23T23:44:21.929-02:30PEAK LOAD
With about 1200 MW of existing renewabl...PEAK LOAD<br /> With about 1200 MW of existing renewable island energy, today at 2:30 we were at only at 916, almost 300 MW to spare with out needing DC in feed or thermal( although likely Holyrood old units were still fired up, the nature of those obsolete inefficient beasts).<br /> 916 MW: Not good for power sales revenue, also should show up on exports to NS, to help pay for the extension cord there, but zero revenue from that.<br /> Our surplus would charge a lot of EVs if we had them, with big GHG savings.<br /> Does PENG2 think island EVs is better than exporting energy, as to our reducing transport GHGs?. <br />Winston<br /> Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-53410399611878554392019-03-23T20:15:29.539-02:302019-03-23T20:15:29.539-02:30Great article in the Globe and Mail today to those...Great article in the Globe and Mail today to those who've subscribed....<br /><br />https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-newfoundlands-reckoning-will-the-province-crumble-under-its-debt/Levy Payerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10196300514529410225noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-31273033799159088042019-03-23T20:14:30.104-02:302019-03-23T20:14:30.104-02:30Must be rough enduring idiots and bottom feeders t...Must be rough enduring idiots and bottom feeders too.<br /><br />You don’t seem to grasp that what happened for the past 45 years is not necessarily going to continue the same for the next 50. The UC has capacity to be flat out about 73% of time. The capacity factor can also be further reduced by adding upwards of 100 MW capacity producing greater peak outputs but the same total power. The river has to be at full flow in the spring run off but the rest of the time is controlled based on the market or corporate strategy and charity is nowhere in sight. <br /><br />The uncertainties towards the paradyne shift in the electrical markets can lead to flow control not necessarily in the best interest of the province. The timing control of the supply of energy is a big deal and that is a large part of the reason the province has spent tens of millions fighting it in court. A mismatch in water flow and energy needs even for a small part of the year can have very serious financial consequences and no bank in the world would have loaned the money without this control except off course with the federal backing<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-78072438008431628232019-03-23T19:50:33.021-02:302019-03-23T19:50:33.021-02:30Who else but UG-endorsed symbol of hate, disrespec...Who else but UG-endorsed symbol of hate, disrespect and weakness for a reply like yours...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-34083719529020609042019-03-23T19:38:32.175-02:302019-03-23T19:38:32.175-02:30I take that to practice engineering assumes one is...I take that to practice engineering assumes one is deemed to be an engineer, whether by a degree or natural talent and study and experience. <br />Also that economics is part of the practice of engineering, and would be a significant part of Mfs, it being fundamentally uneconomic, due to the complex engineering nature, and difficult terrain, and distance of transmission etc of the project. I suggest that Stan Marshall being both an engineer and also understanding engineering economics, would not have led us into the boondoggle, (questionable if he can lead us out)<br /> That costing for MFs was underestimated, risks hidden, and these costs then materialized and attempted to be hidden further. Gilbert Bennett, an engineer and a Vice President of Nalcor signed off on that deceit.<br /> Do you suggest that his dong so, is is separate from the practice of engineering, it being an accounting or economic issue..........is that your argument, that you try to defend the engineering profession from this event, that it is not the same as geotechnical analysis, or calculation of transmission losses etc, ( a more science based technical aspect of engineering). Economics and costing is an important part of engineering, is it not? Are you saying they are separate?<br />PFAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com