tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post387807351668959548..comments2023-10-25T07:29:40.789-02:30Comments on UNCLE GNARLEY: TIME TO TAKE REALISM TO THE POLLSDes Sullivanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02566013585647491614noreply@blogger.comBlogger99125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-73892174012028972012019-05-20T10:10:07.782-02:302019-05-20T10:10:07.782-02:30WA @ 18:44:
Maybe the way this situation needs to...WA @ 18:44:<br /><br />Maybe the way this situation needs to be analyzed is how would the response and actions be different if it was Fortis/NL Power developing MF rather than Nalcor?<br /><br />I would say that if it was Fortis/NL Power developing MF, most people would say that's their problem irregardless of why - the problem is with Nalcor leading the developer is that the tax payer is eventually on the hook for the bill, and I offer that it was mostly governance responsible (remember that Fortis said they wanted no part of MF likewise with several other consortiums/partners when it was assessed).<br /><br />PENG2Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-66247953948226872842019-05-20T09:06:39.094-02:302019-05-20T09:06:39.094-02:30WA @ 18:44:
To be fair I struggle with this too.
...WA @ 18:44:<br /><br />To be fair I struggle with this too.<br /><br />But when I look it over, I see too much information suggesting MF not be completed - some dating back 30-40 yrs, nothing changed since the 70s to make MF viable. So, why then was MF executed - probably as you say, an outcome was selected and then talking points (no facts) selected carefully to support the case.<br /><br />Considering that Nalcor ousted SNC(a group of hydro experts), ignored SNC advice and took on roles for which there was no inhouse ability I am inclined to say that no one wanted to hear that MMF was a poor idea. The other side of the equation, is duty of care - the owner (ie government) likely told Nalcor to do MF at all costs. Using this scenario, I am not so sure there really is a duty on Nalcor to object if the owner says go. Nalcor and the MF PMT certainly has no duty of care to the public that I can see.<br /><br />I outlined the 3-4 players/groups in the MF hierarchy and their duty of care to the public last week or so - wasn't a lot of discussion on that.<br /><br />PENG2Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-84394276377650735302019-05-19T18:44:16.151-02:302019-05-19T18:44:16.151-02:30PENG2 @11:46. I struggle with your statement "...PENG2 @11:46. I struggle with your statement " most of the key decisions were't based on Engineering facts", and so you see little engineering failure overall. <br />I suggest much was based on engineering alternative facts, or false assumptions. <br /> Politicians, in ignorance, might say the Anglo Saxon route is good, technical sound and economic, and select engineers who are hacks to deliver the evidence to support the political view. Is this what happened? <br /> So the initial questions: Did we need the power, and was it lowest cost?<br /> If this was not supported on engineering facts, and I suggest it wasn't, then the engineering to get it to sanction, with these 2 questions answered positive represents engineering failure. does it not? <br /> Beyond sanction, the engineering false assumptions continued, but as to the first 2 questions, is there much or any defense that engineering was sound? If not , then a failure, to that point, would you agree? <br />Winston Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-56183094010186441742019-05-19T14:48:29.036-02:302019-05-19T14:48:29.036-02:30joe @ 13:35:
The speaker is important, not becaus...joe @ 13:35:<br /><br />The speaker is important, not because he has a vote (he doesn't have a vote like other members) - but because he gives up his constituency's vote on the floor for other rewards. The Speaker will get most whatever he asks for in his constituency - provided it doesn't blatantly show favoritism.<br /><br />Id say the Speaker is at worse 2nd most powerful position in the HoA - if not most powerful since his requests would be private and not played ion the media, or has been my observations. Voting is not 20-20, rather its 39 regularly eligible votes - so the speaker selection is critical now.<br /><br /><br />Robert @ 14:25:<br />If you check out the number of voters, participation ranges from 224k - 200k since 2003 (so the 212k last week isn't unusual, just a hair low considering population changes), inorder to get very high turnout you need to go back to the CW administrations in the 90s - upwards of 300k voters then. My guess is since we still have 7 elected members directly ties to the sanction of MF is that the MF Inquiry publicity (and indirectly the MFCCC) had little effect in the outcome.<br /><br />PENG2Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-55677004609043670572019-05-19T14:25:09.608-02:302019-05-19T14:25:09.608-02:30Before we depart this important wrap on election r...Before we depart this important wrap on election results, the Pollsters an Analysts need to inform us of the following;<br /><br />How did less than 10% of voters produce the minority? deciding issues, and regional distribution of discontent?<br /><br />What of the 40% who did not vote or spoiled their ballot? Age grouping? Issues and regional distribution.<br /><br />Advice to the ruling parties, lessons learned? modification of agenda, programs and budgets?<br /><br />Best of the reduced lot to choose from in cabinet appointments.<br /><br />Finally, what effect if any, that Concerned Citizens on Muskrat may have had on the election outcome?Robert G Holmeshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05356463540446993862noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-85441301720995909322019-05-19T13:35:48.629-02:302019-05-19T13:35:48.629-02:30Minority or majority govt...that is the question w...Minority or majority govt...that is the question with 20-20???? Guess it depends on from which 20 the speaker comes from. That is why the speaker election is so important. Someone tell me I am wrong says Joe blow.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-51434006487522396852019-05-19T12:48:03.055-02:302019-05-19T12:48:03.055-02:30Guess the experts will have to weigh in, with 20-2...Guess the experts will have to weigh in, with 20-20 the including the speaker the result would be the same, a defeated or tied motion, requires a trip to the LG, and I think it does require something important, like a fincincial matter, but hey what does average Joe know, lol.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-89246892509359286572019-05-19T12:39:14.504-02:302019-05-19T12:39:14.504-02:30Joe @ 12:31:
Speaker only votes in event of tie a...Joe @ 12:31:<br /><br />Speaker only votes in event of tie as I understand - His vote isn't normally along party lines (above I posted he is to be impartial) and He is to extend debate/discussion/cooperation etc in events of ties.<br /><br />Many see the Speaker as trivial - in actuality probably 2nd most powerful position in elected politics.<br /><br />Confidence motions not passed clearly require a trip to the LG - nothing to do with financial matters etc - though most budgets are termed confidence matters.<br /><br />PENG2Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-86191183015367417652019-05-19T12:31:20.847-02:302019-05-19T12:31:20.847-02:30Will with 20-20, including the speaker, who will n...Will with 20-20, including the speaker, who will no doubt vote with the govt. if from the govt. side, on something like a financial matter. So the speaker's vote may cause a tie. Does that require a trip to the LG to disolve parliament ask Joe blow.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-78972161303489023812019-05-19T11:58:38.787-02:302019-05-19T11:58:38.787-02:30PENG@ @ 11:46:
Typo correction:
'...most of t...PENG@ @ 11:46:<br /><br />Typo correction:<br />'...most of the key decisions weren't based on Engineering facts...'<br /><br />PENG2Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-34718781516251397652019-05-19T11:55:25.851-02:302019-05-19T11:55:25.851-02:30Joe @ 11:23:
I posted my thought above on potenti...Joe @ 11:23:<br /><br />I posted my thought above on potential speaker candidates - but to be 100% accurate we don't yet have a minority government (but most likely will for my reasons above).<br /><br />20 seats is sufficient for a majority since the Speaker isn't normally a voting seat in the traditional sense - though this is trivial at this point, it might be the incentive for DB to work with the NDP, PL or EJ. The Speaker is a very powerful position, but I am not sure there are really good options - but am sure DB will try to avoid a direct minority.<br /><br />PENG2<br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-71099858432472438812019-05-19T11:46:27.040-02:302019-05-19T11:46:27.040-02:30WA:
RE 08:49:
Id say the Engineering fail is stil...WA:<br /><br />RE 08:49:<br />Id say the Engineering fail is still small in comparison of the overall fail - the decision makers were primarily making political decisions and satisfying agendas, most of the key decisions were based on Engineering facts. Granted there may have been a couple Engineers in a position of decision making authority (eg GB), but they were practicing well out of their league and may as well have been a Grade 1 kid. It would be interesting for you to review the Org Charts and just see how few qualified professionals (Engineers, Accountants, Geologists etc) were making the decisions - most were hacks that were connected. Most had experience in the private sector and had no concept about Ethical Decision Making processes in the public arena.<br /><br />RE 08:26:<br />My stance hasn't changed - I wouldn't live downstream, I said this before.<br /><br />PENG2Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-85613474025671686782019-05-19T11:23:26.237-02:302019-05-19T11:23:26.237-02:30A few thoughts on government stability. Seems a sm...A few thoughts on government stability. Seems a small minority want to return to the poles today, think even VOCM 's straw pole showed that. So the people that has been elected will have to make government work for the province and the people. So first things first. Will we have a minority govt?? Most likely, but it depends on the 5 vote majority in Lab West. Will the NDP have 3 members or 2??. And the choosing of a speaker is another mile stone. Most likely it will come from the govt. side. So if we have a govt. of 21 members then it is by the slimmest of all margins, and every member is of paramount importance, that will put their province before their district and not want every nook and cranny filled with ashfelte and a dr. In every home, or a home in every community etc. That can happen in some cases if we have not chosen wisely. But, if it turns out we have a minority govt. of 20 members then it will be up to the other members, especially the NDP to decide if we have a stable govt. what that govt. does and for how long. They all say, work together for the betterment of the province. Not sure about chess, after his election speach and his cancelled news conference from Friday, that will come in the next couple of days, I guess. As for minority govts, I gave my opinion on that before the election, using Pearson's two minority govts of the 60's and what they were able to achieve, much more than the previous and following majority govts. And one may say, ball et al is no "mike" Pearson, or John Kennedy. And I agree with that. So let his leadership be tested. As I also mentioned, in most of Europe minority govts have become the norm for many years. When was the last time Isreal had a majority govt? Others will tell me. Usually they have 2 or 3 parties forming the govt., the only democracy in the Middle East. On election night last month PEI elected a minority govt of 3 parties, have not followed it to see how it worked out. Haven't heard a peep or squeak about it since. Am sure others will tell me. It will not only test every member elected, but whether we as a people are able to govern ourselves after exercising our democratic right. Or we will ramp and roar until we get a govt. with a Hugh majority that will give us things like muskrat falls all over again ask average Joe.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-20303298812744685832019-05-19T10:06:32.528-02:302019-05-19T10:06:32.528-02:30With the shenanigans about to unfold at the HoA, i...With the shenanigans about to unfold at the HoA, imminent insolvency has been fast tracked in my opinion. Wall/ Bay St. couldn't care less about Backwater politics. Levy Payerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10196300514529410225noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-53562551169155761352019-05-18T21:54:46.161-02:302019-05-18T21:54:46.161-02:30Health care is run much like Nalcor, lots of money...Health care is run much like Nalcor, lots of money spent and worse outcomes in Canada. Weekly there is reports of incompetence. Inquiry needed there too to expose the rot.<br /> Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-88190699163346296572019-05-18T19:25:40.348-02:302019-05-18T19:25:40.348-02:30Don't recall (I am not Kathy Dunderdale) but g...Don't recall (I am not Kathy Dunderdale) but good luck with that, is it 20%. I am a senior citizen and do not see very many positive outcomes ahead.<br /><br /><br /><br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-15192670808895380382019-05-18T18:57:03.235-02:302019-05-18T18:57:03.235-02:30Recall that the UG piece on Choosing Wisely said 2...Recall that the UG piece on Choosing Wisely said 20 % saving possible on health care, so on 3 billion, that is 600 million a year, from efficient and streamlined operations. Choosing Wisely is promoted by medical professionals, is it not? <br />PFAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-3339215715910073292019-05-18T18:49:20.827-02:302019-05-18T18:49:20.827-02:30Ah yes, the debt is at almost 50% of GDP, Allison,...Ah yes, the debt is at almost 50% of GDP, Allison, as an economist, should understand that serious fiscal problem that we face. Eddy Joyce has political baggage and Paul Lane's roller skates are in need of lubrication. It all makes for interesting political times in the province.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-74578755063787046992019-05-18T18:21:30.623-02:302019-05-18T18:21:30.623-02:30The deals are on, Allison Coffin and the other 2 N...The deals are on, Allison Coffin and the other 2 NDP in the driver's seat. The independents are remaining independent. It is indeed time to tackle the deficit and then the massive debt, including impending MF debt. The health care system is a good place to start. Can't you hear the howling from people already, based upon the howling from a few simple tax increases of a few years ago!! Ask not what you can do for your province but only what your province can do for you! Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-19198188912519239592019-05-18T13:36:09.358-02:302019-05-18T13:36:09.358-02:30Who will be our new Environment Minister under a m...Who will be our new Environment Minister under a minority government?<br />Will we have someone who will follow the example of the Mother Country, England? There in Oct 2018 they released their 74 page report "Managing the coast in a changing climate".<br /> Over the next 60 years risk to properties is expected to increase 5 fold, from 0.1% to o.5 %. This means 1.5 million properties at risk from flooding, 1.2 million of those being houses. Also 1600 km of road, 650 km of railway line, and 92 railway stations. Sea level is expected to rise by 1.1 m by year 2100. With 0.5 m rise, 20 % of England's coastal defences are vulnerable to failure.<br /> Recently the first town in England is scheduled to be decommissioned in 26 years from now, by decision of the council, and no compensation. Property values have fallen 40%. That town is Fairboure, 410 homes and 850 people. In 26 years they will demolish the village: houses , shops, roads, sewers, gas pipes, and electricity.<br /> Can someone direct me to a link where Graham Letto commissioned such a risk assessment for coastal Nfld and Labrador?<br /> As to MFs we saw 6 or 7 levels of risk assessment all buried or ignored. And too, on Friday, we saw that Noseworthy too had written on the need for oversight committee to deal with MFs risks, and that too ignored. <br /> Given our experience with MFs, what can we expect for climate change risk for coastal NL? <br /> The report from England notes that sea levels will keep rising for centuries from past GHG emissions, and that dramatic reductions of GHG are needed to reduce risks as now expected.<br /> Perhaps this may explain why London and England seem to be taking the climate emergency serious, but here not an issue, as we are on a different planet, and we pump ethical oil.<br />Winston Adams Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-92019182084724331892019-05-18T08:49:23.670-02:302019-05-18T08:49:23.670-02:30Inquiry issues: the Telegram cites evidence this w...Inquiry issues: the Telegram cites evidence this week that the management approach of control from St Johns led to failures and added costs.<br /> And to, we know the negative fall out from reduction of the SNC responsiblities, recall: SNC people treated like slaves etc.<br /> So, for PENG2, how much of all this is engineering and non engineering management / political decisions? There was considerable engineering talent in management, thought Ed Martin was not but Gil Bennett and others. <br />So, on engineering failure we see much of it, that could have been reduced with good management, but overall on a scale of 0 to 100, where would you rate engineering failure/success on this project, at this stage of the Inquiry? I think you have moved some to acknowledge engineering failure from your original position? And the show is not over yet by far.<br />WinstonAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-12973195291242076612019-05-18T08:26:49.012-02:302019-05-18T08:26:49.012-02:30A modest rise at Mud Lake, but just to the top of ...A modest rise at Mud Lake, but just to the top of the river bank.<br />The rise a few km below MFs is modest. Rise at Kettle Rapids 57 KM above MFs is still rising and not peaked yet. Snow cover in MFs area is most all gone, so should temper the rise. Flow from the Churchill Falls plant was reduced some this past 2 weeks, assume to reduce risk of flooding. <br /> Data seems favourable, and unless ice jambs occur, should go smoothly. I would not give assurances as Gilbert Bennett did 6 hrs before the big flood 2 years ago that all is fine! With ice jambs water can rise fast as Mud Lake. If I was living there, seeing the ice moving through and not too tight or thick would give me comfort, more so than the water gauge data alone. But for flow control, the data is essential to control CFs flow and the MFs spillway flow in advance. At MFs the water has been very steady at 21.5 meters, more steady than last year , I think, so either controlling it better, or the weather has been good to permit less of a spike in the flow, so not much fine tuning needed.<br /> Again it puts the flood 2 years ago at question, and I think Nalcor at fault. Would PENG2 agree? I see the class action in in the works, not sure if it was approved to proceed? I think a good engineering study, a real independent one would find Nalcor at fault, on the balance of probabilities.<br />Winston Adams<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-65056068029081577642019-05-18T07:59:26.050-02:302019-05-18T07:59:26.050-02:30It's been on my mind, Joe for the past week, a...It's been on my mind, Joe for the past week, and yesterday the 17th, being the day the flood occurred 2 years ago.<br /> With election, Inquiry, and other matters (like the Health Care crisis here), I am behind on following the river levels. Thanks for the reminder.<br />WinstonAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-42598613273796266712019-05-17T22:57:01.835-02:302019-05-17T22:57:01.835-02:30Anyone watching the water levels at Mud Lake Road....Anyone watching the water levels at Mud Lake Road.... Seems to be rising says average Joe.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-38805886777477939962019-05-17T22:25:06.452-02:302019-05-17T22:25:06.452-02:30To see more, Goggle Keeling Curve rather than Kee...To see more, Goggle Keeling Curve rather than Keeling chart<br />WAAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com