tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post4512930687255164499..comments2023-10-25T07:29:40.789-02:30Comments on UNCLE GNARLEY: DELUSION AND DECEPTION (PART III)Des Sullivanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02566013585647491614noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-42703486883639747342014-09-19T09:34:31.098-02:302014-09-19T09:34:31.098-02:30There had been a long term trend of more and more...There had been a long term trend of more and more residents using electric heat as the primary heat source. It was assumed this was would continue. I am amazed to learn than since 2010 there has been a big reduction in the percentage using electric heat as the primary source. Oil use has increased and a large increase in wood, especially off the Avalon. And the high cost increases are yet to come, so people are switching in anticipation of high prices or unable to afford electricity at current prices. This trend does not bode well for the MF vision.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-7395643921225188652014-09-19T00:27:47.597-02:302014-09-19T00:27:47.597-02:30Thank you JM for your work but you are letting Mr....Thank you JM for your work but you are letting Mr. Martin off too easy. What about interest during construction. It is a real cost. Workers and contractors on site this week must be paid with borrowed money and there is no revenue for several years so it must be added to the capital cost. The interest expense during construction is no different than money paid to any other supplier. It must be paid or there are consequences. <br />If the interest wasn't part of the DG2 estimate then Nalcor low balled that estimate. Adding the interest cost brings the overrun into the 60% range. Also I believe the DG2 estimate had a contingency. Is there a similar one in place now.<br />The province needs to start planning for possible poorer outcomes from this thing such as losing the water management rights court case, further overruns combined with a few years of lower oil prices driving up deficits and the cost of capital for both operating and MF.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-25214381807714053642014-09-18T12:05:10.178-02:302014-09-18T12:05:10.178-02:30Low transmission losses is one of the advantages o...Low transmission losses is one of the advantages of having generation sources close to the load, the user of electricity. <br />With 92.1 MW transmission loss on the Link, in normal operation, that is 10.2 percent loss<br />With one DC pole out, the transmission losses jumps to 272.8 MW, as the single conductor is very overloaded. This will continue for 10 minutes until they ramp back the power being transmitted, reduced to 675 MW leaving Muskrat Falls and 530.6 MW arriving Soldiers Pond, for 144.4 MW transmission loss.<br />Vale Inco at Long Hr will use about 80 MW. For comparison, Under normal operation, in bipole the losses on the Link, at 92.1 MW exceed Vale Inco usage. Under an outage of one pole of the link, transmission losses peak to almost 4 times that of Vale Inco usage.......enough to generate our own Northern Lights!!!!<br /> Transmission losses from Holyrood to St Johns is about 2 percent, say 10MW when delivering 495 MW.<br /> Conservation, especially efficient residential heating, heatpumps, reduces the load for the customer, about 3 kw per average house, 300Mw reduction for 100,000 houses. This reduces transmission losses, about 30 Mw of saving on the grid, real energy saving that can be sold to other customers. Of course this is Demand Side Management that is being ignored. WAAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-25682708874928361452014-09-18T11:33:16.688-02:302014-09-18T11:33:16.688-02:30In your earlier piece you wondered if Nalcor's...In your earlier piece you wondered if Nalcor's misrepresentation was strategic or deceptive. <br />Consider David Vardy's question no 4 to Nalcor : Can 900 Megawatts be guaranteed over the Labrador Island Link? Nalcor's answer: The link (HVDC System) will be capable of transmitting 900 MW from Muskrat Falls at any time during bipole operation. During an outage on one pole the link will be capable of transmitting 900MW for a short period of time and tehn ramped back to 675 MW. Transmission losses are fully accounted for in all of Nalcor's calculations.<br /> One might believe that the answer to Vardy's question is YES. But that is not so.<br /> Vardy's question was whether 900MW could be transmitted over the link. This link transmits from Muskrat Falls to Soldiers Pond on the Avalon. A reasonable person would assume from the question and answer that , yes, 900MW arrives on the Avalon. That Vardy's term "over" implied "gets to" the Avalon. But that is not so.<br /> The truth is that 900 MW leaves Muskrat Falls and transmission losses absorbs a significant portion along the lines. When transmitting 900MW, 92.1 MW is lost allowing 807.9 MW to arrive at the Avalon. These are the figures Nalcor has provided the PUB. <br /> So is not Nalcor's reply to Vardy deceptive? WA, Logy BayAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com