tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post4710408746883884795..comments2023-10-25T07:29:40.789-02:30Comments on UNCLE GNARLEY: MUSKRAT FALLS: A FAILED PROJECT BEFORE IT STARTED (and nothing has changed)Des Sullivanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02566013585647491614noreply@blogger.comBlogger55125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-35406138633631642992016-08-30T17:48:53.619-02:302016-08-30T17:48:53.619-02:30SNC Lavallin doesn't have the knowledge to bui...SNC Lavallin doesn't have the knowledge to built a dam like that..as for the transmission line Hydro-Quebec advised you that it will not work transmitting the electricity underwater...as of now the deficit is up to 10 billions dollars and SNC Lavallin is asking for another 10 billions dollars....what has been done on the dam will have to be demolish because it will not be able to stand the water pressure to do so...so when will Hydro-Quebec will be call to do the job...apparently HQ already built a transmission line to transport the eventual electricity....another newfie jokerichard bérubénoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-36199536906369223912016-06-27T12:46:39.057-02:302016-06-27T12:46:39.057-02:30Cyril, as I commented to Bruno, while I swayed on ...Cyril, as I commented to Bruno, while I swayed on whether Marshall is right to continue, I finally reconsidered that there is still too much risk and negative impacts, even with sunk costs. <br /> The word `naysayers`....., you and I and others that have long been vocal in written comments and opinions as naysayers. It now seems a badge on honour to have been a naysayer. Danny Williams said MF was a no brainer, if I recall correctly.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-2171463453893930642016-06-27T00:53:04.969-02:302016-06-27T00:53:04.969-02:30N&L should have given more consideration to th...N&L should have given more consideration to the offer made in the 2000s by HQ and Ontario to develop the Lower Churchill projects essentially to service Ontario. N&L must realize that making some money without risk (e.g. Churchill Falls) is better than taking on project development risks and losing tons of money (Muskrat Falls). <br />Errare humanum est, perseverare diabolicum. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-42942419400979076792016-06-27T00:50:11.576-02:302016-06-27T00:50:11.576-02:30The decision, both federally and provincially, was...The decision, both federally and provincially, was a political charade and was sanctioned without proper oversight, as Mr. Sullivan so succinctly points out. <br /><br />It was, in my opinion, Harper's final revenge on the PC's, as it gave an extraordinary advantage to Nova Scotia while putting the screws to NL. The sheer stupidity of Kathy Dunderdale, and a host of other minions who kowtowed to Danny Williams, must have made Harper smile at the time.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09111829889271733714noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-39814534490794531472016-06-27T00:39:17.466-02:302016-06-27T00:39:17.466-02:30Should be "shafted" the people of the pr...Should be "shafted" the people of the province.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09111829889271733714noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-8099340823935100272016-06-27T00:38:05.600-02:302016-06-27T00:38:05.600-02:30Winston, I would ideally like to see the whole pro...Winston, I would ideally like to see the whole project scrapped. I don't know enough about the transmission line's progress say anything intelligent about it but, if well on its way to completion, it "may" make the best of a bad situation.<br /><br />This project is about vanity and feeding the greed of those we entrusted with leadership, a trust they never deserved. I am totally disgusted with politicians of all political stripes and in how they have safety the people of the province. Sadly, they are continuing to make decisions that are not in the best interests of the province and its people but most of the blame falls squarely on the shoulders of one Danny Williams. People trusted him and he let his people down in the worst possible way.<br /><br />I get very little satisfaction from being one of the naysayers from way back..... because I know the long term harm that this monstrous project inflicted on the province's fiscal balance sheet and the untold damage it continues to inflict. Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09111829889271733714noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-61028413964023493352016-06-27T00:17:05.466-02:302016-06-27T00:17:05.466-02:30To : the lawyer who studied economics
Yes, price e...To : the lawyer who studied economics<br />Yes, price elastics of demand.... for electricity , David Vardy has used a figure of 0.5 expected from MF cost effect. I have read that where there is cost effective alternates for electric heat. say were gas is available , the figure can be more than .5, which suggests a very large reduction in use. Efficient mini-split heat pumps save up to 65 percent on electricity use and can reduce peak demand significantly. The PUB discussion reflected the increase in use of these and also a slowing economy, and the cost of MF, which was then stated to be 9.1 billion. That was when the increase in PED was indicated to increae from .2 to .3, a 50 percent increase. Now with MF at 11.4 billion and rising, PED will increase more.<br />In the Rate application, it seems PED is accounted for as a factor that they cover as extra cost to cover and pay out to the power company, but obviously a concern to them..... and all the more reason to avoid further reductions by promoting efficiency, as I see it. And of course, pre-sanction it was stated that efficiency saving for housing was reaching saturation, a false assumption, by a long shot, but they assumed this for forecasting.<br /> To Bruno: The mercury issue... you are right. The flooded area at 41 sq km is about kalf the size of Bell Island in Conception Bay. Seems appropriate to clear cut, and perhaps have a wood pellet machine to feed isolated communities on the Labrador coast to reduce oil consumption. The Spur.... Marshall is reckless if the concerns of quick clay is not properly addressed. And Marshall said he hopes to keep our electricity rates in the middle of the pack. It is all ready in the middle of the pack, with Quebec at about 6 cents, Nova Scotia at 16 and we at 10.5 before tax. If headed for 22 cents and he keeps it a few cents lower, we will still be the highest in the country. How can we take serious being in the middle of the pack. Having gone with other options instead of MF we should be in the lower third of Canadian rates. <br /> An engineer with the major oil companies here to day said to me , as to MF, if this was a project by them, even at this stage, they would mothball the project.<br /> In all, with further reflection, I have again tipped back to my original position: too many risks to continue, even at this late stage of sunk costs. If one can vote on this, I would vote to halt the project, not that it seems to count much. <br />Winston AdamsAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-26478097794378366402016-06-26T20:41:01.533-02:302016-06-26T20:41:01.533-02:30Correction, I meant Emera.Correction, I meant Emera.Robert G Holmeshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05356463540446993862noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-74613850860250446012016-06-26T20:39:34.167-02:302016-06-26T20:39:34.167-02:30Boys, the prime motive which twisted the feasibili...Boys, the prime motive which twisted the feasibility seems to be a "get even with Quebec attitude". Living in NS at the time, (2005-2010), there were open discussions as to how to resolve an Atlantic Power Grid, (Renewable, Hydro preferred), which simply put was achievable through interconnect with Hydro Quebec. There were obstacles; NB Power, a public utility was in the process of selling its assets, (Lepreau and its problems), to Hydro Quebec. That was stopped by change in government. Emery and SNC Lavelin were hungry for cash cow work, NS changed government, NL government was hot to "get even", and everybody wanted to avoid dealing with HQ. Any thoughts on negotiating a deal with the most solvent Power Corp, (HQ), to take on the Muskrat, and become the natural power supplier for the region?Robert G Holmeshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05356463540446993862noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-33966691050634985492016-06-26T19:11:40.538-02:302016-06-26T19:11:40.538-02:30We now know who and why the National Energy Progra...We now know who and why the National Energy Program from the 70's was beaten up and dissed by the Tory-backed fossil fuel lobby. It is the nub of the "climate change wars". Energy Conservation, Barrel of Oil displacement, Engineering conversion of transport, buildings, process industries have been the battle grounds to this day. SadRobert G Holmeshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05356463540446993862noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-28955905264491425772016-06-26T16:00:23.158-02:302016-06-26T16:00:23.158-02:30As one who has been saying MF makes no sense from ...As one who has been saying MF makes no sense from the outset it annoys me that even when the reality dawns the victims of this debacle remain compliant. It is never too late to stop a boondoggle. The cost will continue to soar, the project management is incompetent and nothing is being done about it, the spur may fail and sink ALL the money, Labrador's traditional way of life is being destroyed in a callous and again racist dismissal of the value of indigenous peoples way of life and rights. I am sorry but shrugging ones shoulders and saying oh well I told you so is not good enough.<br /><br />Winston, Nalcor and NL Power will do just fine as always. The burden remains on the chumps that continue to be kept in the dark--the rate/taxpayer. Is it not time the rate/taxpayer had a good look at what they are buying? Because 6 billion have been wasted is no reason to waste 10 billion more for power no one needs or wants especially because of the environmental destruction it will wreak.<br /><br />Winston I mind the heat more and more as I age so I do my gardening early in the cool part of the day.Bruno Marcocchiohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08076165212559914463noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-71147750765246020752016-06-26T14:10:24.663-02:302016-06-26T14:10:24.663-02:30I presume by "elasticity" you means the ...I presume by "elasticity" you means the 'price elasticity of demand'. This is a term used by economists. There are several other 'elasticities' used by economists but I won't bore you with that. I'm not sure why a lawyer is talking about this to the PUB but I will give him the benefit of the doubt since I too, am a lawyer, but have also studied economics. <br /><br />Price elasticity of demand ("PED") is a measure used by economists to show the responsiveness, or 'elasticity', of the quantity demanded of a good or service to a change in its price (all other things being constant). For a 1% change in price, it gives the percentage change in quantity demanded. 'All other things being constant' is simply a way of saying that there are often many other variables that affect the demand for a product or service but to measure PED, it is assumed that there are no changes in those other variables, otherwise the calculation of PED is a nightmare.<br /><br />Electricity has what is called an 'inelastic demand'. In other words, for a 1% increase in price, the quantity demanded will fall by less than 1%. This is because it is the kind of commodity that people must have. They can't easily or quickly change to an alternative to electricity. The PED of a box of chocolates, for example, is considered 'elastic'. If the price of a box goes up by 1%, the quantity demanded will go down by more than 1%. This is because you can easily switch to another product that will satisfy your need for chocolates. <br /><br />The bottom line, electricity sellers are not very sensitive to the consumer when it comes to price increases, they will always get their pound of flesh (which is why it is generally a regulated commodity, so the seller can't gouge the consumer). <br /><br />Your reference to the "elasticity" going from 0.2 to 0.3 is not particularly helpful. It doesn't mean much without knowing what the price change is that will cause the elasticity to go from 0.2 to 0.3. And there is no reference to the time period that this change will happen. All it says is that there is an expectation that PED will become slightly less 'inelastic'. My take on this is that there is an expectation that demand for electricity will actually go down over some period of time. I expect that some consumers will switch to other forms of electricity or there may be fewer consumers demanding electricity in the future.<br /><br />Of course, this calls into question the very foundation for the decision to build Muskrat Falls. If demand is actually going to fall in the future, it flies in the face of the assumption that it will increase (one of the premises for the Project).<br /><br />Without more information it is difficult to offer more analysis. And I can't say I have the inclination to go looking for the presentations to the PUB. Given the status of the Muskrat Falls Project, it is all too little, too late for this. <br /><br />The best I can offer is the same recrimination as you have. NL has a disaster on its hands that was totally unnecessary and actually irresponsible and reprehensible. The reckless disregard by Danny Williams and Nalcor for the NL citizens is disgraceful. It demonstrates the ruinous contempt they had for the very people they were supposed to serve.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-20486534818460355112016-06-26T10:50:09.816-02:302016-06-26T10:50:09.816-02:30Bruno, you rise early, posting again at 06:45. My ...Bruno, you rise early, posting again at 06:45. My extra sleep may have taken me from the shock of our Pearl Harbour announcement of Marshall. Shock symptoms: My many posting on this and tipping to give Marshall the benefit of doubt. And I said that it seems Fortis, Nfld Power and Nfld interests are alighned as to proceeding with MF, that it is too late to stop.<br /> My reasoning that very high power rates will negatively impact sales and hurt Nfld Power and Fortis. The first part is right, the laws of elasticity means less energy sales. My insight this morning: It will not hurt Nfld Power and Fortis. Let me explain and see if you agree. Energy price doubles or close to that and say elasticity at least 0.3, what is the result: Sales of energy drop 30 percent. Someone with a $4000 yearly bill see $8000, but will reduce energy use and wind up spending $5600. Nfld Power income at present is about 560 million. If sales stay constant it would jump to 1120 million, but with reduced sales, it would be 754 million, an apparent increase of 194 million. At 8 percent return, that is an extra profit of 15.5 million. Not sure if it works exactly that way, but if so, Fortis share holders can profit from these high prices, even with less energy sales. If elasticity is greater than 0.3, sales reduce further and there is less of a profit gain.<br /> Can you or some reader clarify the impact on Nfld Power`s profit of these high rates. <br /> At the PUB hearing on Apr 12, the issue of elasticity was raised by lawyer John Green ( who I did not know who he was or who he represented). It was stated that elasticity is currently at about 0.2 but expected to go to 0.3 with the Muskrat infeed. I have read since that John Green is a lawyer for Fortis, but has now switched to Nalcor. As Fortis was not a party to the Rate Application, I wondered how he got to even ask a question on this. It seems they wanted on record that Nfld Power and Nfld Hydro are in general agreement that we are headed for elasticity of 0.3, which doubles the present rate. Why have it on record.... I suppose to deflect blame on the government Nfld Hydro down the road, and not the fault of Nfld Power that they used false assumptions for MF forecasting for energy and demand use. Is this an attempt to avoid being accused of `imprudent` decisions and assumptions, I wonder.And Liberty is not fond of imprudence as we now know.<br />Winston AdamsAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-57888341136444044662016-06-26T09:52:11.778-02:302016-06-26T09:52:11.778-02:30Did I miss something? As Danny Williams given any ...Did I miss something? As Danny Williams given any comment on this Muskrat Falls fiasco that he created?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-33817905681523051772016-06-26T09:25:34.543-02:302016-06-26T09:25:34.543-02:30Bruno, Your statement "Evidence, not blind fa...Bruno, Your statement "Evidence, not blind faith is what is required" is correct. But Bruno there are three entities in this marriage NL, NS and Ottawa and everyone should have used their due diligence and kept up their surveillance. Now it appears that the province of NL and its people are doomed. The need for hydro energy for the people of NS and the Ship Building Industry contract that was awarded to Nova Scotia by Ottawa desperately needed to be taken care of and that is the reason for the dilemma we are facing in this debacle.<br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-16314241908516163702016-06-26T06:45:43.177-02:302016-06-26T06:45:43.177-02:30It is never too late to kill a project doomed to f...It is never too late to kill a project doomed to fail that destroys the way of life of Labradorians and that will leave the old and poor shivering in the dark(even if the towers stay upright).<br /><br />You seem to have swallowed the "too late to stop" line without any evidence. I remind you again that there was no analysis of the cost of stopping. You grasp at non-existent straws to come to your conclusions.<br /><br />The "naysayers" (read the informed and alarmed) numbers swell by the day. There is plenty of legitimate concern Winston, what is missing is the willingness to confront the lies and the oligarchs that keep feeding you tripe and stealing your future.<br /><br />Evidence, not blind faith is what is required if Stan is to be believed.Bruno Marcocchiohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08076165212559914463noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-25049686632218950632016-06-25T23:56:33.052-02:302016-06-25T23:56:33.052-02:30Cyril, I had hoped the dam and transmission line w...Cyril, I had hoped the dam and transmission line would be mothballed. And with that the necessity of aggressive efficiency and conservation. I have made several presentations to the PUB on this issue since 2012, the latest in April this year, and even the Consumer Advocate made a recommendation in April that the power companies have failed on their conservation programs here.<br />I had testing done here, perhaps the most detailed results of any testing in North America as to the benefits of efficient heating systems, which is just amazing. The Consumer Advocate recommended an improved program here and some rebates. The PUB ignored it, and went along with the power companies with the status quo,.... just acknowledged we are our of step with other jurisdictions. <br /> There is no organised movement here for good efficiency measures. There is almost no awareness by the public of how this could have decreased instead of increasing electricity bills, and the media have ignored it.<br /> With the PUB decision on efficiency and conservation I have accepted the Marshall Plan, but not my preferred option. The original Marshall Plan restored Europe after Hitler. Can only wish our Stan good luck.<br />Winston AdamsAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-6667061987348431302016-06-25T22:46:02.660-02:302016-06-25T22:46:02.660-02:30There is no real option but to mothball the dam co...There is no real option but to mothball the dam component of this project. Try to salvage the transmission line, despite my grave reservations about that part of the project as well. The final cost is now over $11 Billion and counting, with no end in sight. This project was an assault on the viability of the province and nothing less than a Public Inquiry is ever going to get to the bottom of it. The authors of this project, Danny Williams and his cohorts, need to have their day of reckoning as the province heads toward its collision with bankruptcy.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09111829889271733714noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-13739642352406445182016-06-25T22:23:54.471-02:302016-06-25T22:23:54.471-02:30Bruno, I take it that his figure of over 6 billion...Bruno, I take it that his figure of over 6 billion spent and committed and several billion to cancel reflects some analysis of the cost of stopping. I have little optimism that going forward can make this a good project, just might be possible to make the best out of a boondoggle.And it may be in the end we may look back and say it should have been stopped in June 2016. I supported stopping this a year or two ago when there was less money spent.<br />Marshall has assessed the worth of the so called gravy, (export sales) at helping reduce costs here 0.8 cents per kwh, which is peanuts. He says he hoped our final electricity cost to be in the middle of the pack (Canadain average I take it). We are about there now, so I cannot see how we can avoid being the most expensive, without other measures: Ottawa help, more cash from our government etc. <br />Fortis did come in on budget and on schedule on a recent Hydro project in BC., a 1 billion project.<br /> I guess I feel this project is at the tipping point on the wisdom of cancellation. I expect costs will perhaps exceed 11.4 billion. Marshall has a long history of being a capable manager, but I do not think he is much of an environmentalist, but as I do not know him, this is just an opinion.<br /> So I have little optimism, just some hope, for what that`s worth. Under Ed martin, from day one I felt we were heading for a boondoggle. If we stop now, power rates may need to go say 19 cents, to complete the project it 21.4 cents, but maybe some mitigation as Marshall says, can lower it some. If there is pixie dust ... it must be to achieve keeping our costs in the middle of the pack. That can do with some clarification, as seems largely impossible, and perhaps misleading.<br /> I expect he will do his best, also for this reason: very high power rates will negatively impact Nfld Power sales and revenue and profit. Aggressive efficiency will do the same. Modest efficiency will occur more slowly after high rates kick in. Nfld power is between a rock and a hard place for profit growth. To make the best of MF to give moderate rates is best for Nfld Power and Fortis. So it seems that Fortis interests and Nfld interests is to tame this monster instead of killing it. A year ago I would say kill it. It was the PC objective to get this to the point of no return, and it seems they did that. Too few naysayers and too little main media attention to those wrong assumptions. In many cases the assumptions were plainly wrong. <br /> Having said that, I do not know if Marshall is aware of the potential for very significant reductions in load and peak demand on the island going forward. He says he has looked at everything... but Nfld Power is in denial of the effects of efficient heating that is just starting here, and doing what they can to slow it down efficient heating. Marshall may look back in a few years and say `we ASSUMED efficient heating wouldn`t catch on so fast`. If he is not aware of what is happening in other jurisdiction, then he is less aware than I would hope. He is either on top of this risk or he is not.I would like to know.<br />WinstonAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-86330517501546783432016-06-25T22:22:29.393-02:302016-06-25T22:22:29.393-02:30Thank you for posting the expert opinion of Mr. Wr...Thank you for posting the expert opinion of Mr. Wright. I have followed this project since I heard the Williams battle cry..." We don't need Quebec - we'll build around them". My immediate reaction was that he needed to look at a map again.<br /><br />Never has there been a more egregious disregard of the public good, as that displayed at the 'Mad Hatters' tea party at sanction in Dec. 2012. My anger today is immeasurable over this pillage of the public treasury by dilettantes and poseurs. Muskrat Falls was painted by Tom Adams as the worst electricity generation project in Canada at the time. It is much worse than that today.<br /><br />I too thought Stan Marshall would bring his experience to bear on this project, realizing that the first thing necessary would be the analysis required to assure the shareholders, ratepayers and taxpayers (one and the same) that the decision was prudent...whether to proceed or delay. It seems that was not the case, and once again he has made the big assumption that the information provided him internally was correct, without any independent verification. This is completely unacceptable. I too informed the Premier, that EY was not necessarily the right consultancy to carry out this work. I also said that we are the only Province in Canada to have had the PUB removed from the examination of the largest expenditure in the Province's history, and that this cannot be tolerated. <br /><br />There will inevitably be forensic auditing required of this whole debacle. It is unavoidable. An 'estimate' of $11.4 billion to complete today is $13.8 million/MW! This is several multiples of conventional hydro costs of construction. Even taking into account the 1100 km isolation of the plant from the perceived and inflated demand, and the expensive undersea crossings, it is still wildly out of line. Listening to the Premier yesterday, he seems to be simply...confused. There is no conviction there, other than support of Stan Marshall. We require independent verification of his opinion. The proven reputation of the Nalcor project team at providing lousy information, simply excludes any other conclusion. <br /><br />Mr. Marshall does not seem to understand that the NL shareholder does not care about his bleatings that Gilbert Bennett has done his damndest to make the project work. The fact is, he has failed, miserably and spectacularly. Who selected Astaldi? His efforts simply were not good enough, and Marshall rewards him with an Executive VP title and puts him in charge of powerhouse construction? He must be replaced. I cannot believe that accountability in NL is so seldom carried to conclusion...virtually never!<br /><br />Government oversight has failed completely. Julia Mulalley, Clerk of the Executive Council, an accountant with no construction management experience at all, and who has worked nowhere else in her career but in the NL Government, cannot possibly provide the leadership necessary for such a task. Again, she depends upon EY to provide reports for review by the 'Oversight Committee'. I have read all the meting minutes, and can find not a whit of assurance there, that my investment is safe. Another miserable failure based on the disclaimer by EY in all their reports...'that the information contained therein has been provided by Nalcor, and has not been verified.' We certainly cannot trust Nalcor at all.<br /><br />We are the only Province in Canada that does not have the final opinion or decision of the PUB (or equivalent) on record for the largest expenditure in the Province's history. Their professionals are charged with engaging the appropriate consultants, to ensure that the shareholders investment is safe. (I have no connection to Wells or the PUB whatsoever) That is their mandate and they need to be permitted to carry that out.<br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-51623196646146712692016-06-25T18:08:19.376-02:302016-06-25T18:08:19.376-02:30Bruno, the Feds should never have approved the loa...Bruno, the Feds should never have approved the loan guaranteed before it had all the facts, figures and details of the Muskrat Falls Contract and they should have inspected the project at every juncture because of the liability of the loan guarantee. The Feds also also knew, I am sure, that the NL provincial government was in the process of enacting Bill 29 and everyone with one brain cell knew what that Bill was brought into being for. As far as I am concerned the Loan Guarantee sealed the fate of Newfoundlanders and Labradorians. This project was guaranteed for the benefit and hydro needs of Nova Scotia AND Newfoundlanders and Labradorians were to be doomed with back breaking hydro bills for 57 years..<br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-37061396263262512382016-06-25T15:40:43.441-02:302016-06-25T15:40:43.441-02:30I agree with all your points Winston, except for y...I agree with all your points Winston, except for your conclusion. Marshall has done zero examination of the stop option by his own admission. He wants to save the project (at any and all costs) without the management changes this post demonstrates is woeful. Marshall refused to make public the contracts so you must act on FAITH once again Winston. What fuels your optimism?<br /><br />When your blind faith is once again betrayed you have exactly what besides pixie dust left?<br /><br />He has set as his goal selling the "surplus" power to lower the cost. He has no plan to fix a project he describes as a boondoggle. It is mindboondoggling really. <br /><br />Winston you want the feds to shovel money into the churning, lawsuit riddled disaster that is the current state of the MF money pit without them seeing a plan or input into project management? Would feeding the monster not be exactly the wrong thing to do? An airing and disinfection is in order instead. <br />Bruno Marcocchiohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08076165212559914463noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-55460701505795048042016-06-25T14:10:46.701-02:302016-06-25T14:10:46.701-02:30The Details that are being revealed on the Muskrat...The Details that are being revealed on the Muskrat Falls Project are becoming more and more alarming and disturbing each day that passes. If most of us had any "project managerial skill input" into the MF Project, we would long ago have taken to our beds with a severe mental illness. Let us face the piper now, the looming debt problem that is about to be foisted upon us has to be ameliorated somehow, since 500,000 with no more than 200,000 taxpayers out of that number cannot be counted on to pay off this monstrous debt unless it is amortized over 200 years. And to make matters worse the Conference Board of Canada stated the province of Newfoundland and Labrador is the only province in Canada about to suffer a recession over the next few years. Where Have all Of our Province's Natural Resources Gone to Create Economies and Population Bases? We have, no doubt, been severely duped by every politician in country. Time for Change! Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-10756638239871063672016-06-25T13:03:42.539-02:302016-06-25T13:03:42.539-02:30An interesting and informative analysis, but it is...An interesting and informative analysis, but it is an analysis that was also done by many MF naysayers immediately after the first EY report was issued. However, it fell on deaf ears. As regards SNC Lavalin, there are rumours of a "risk report" being delivered by that firm to Nalcor back in 2013 that demonstrated that this project was, in Mr. Marshall's words yesterday, a boondoggle and should be cancelled. Of course, that was not what Nalcor and Danny Williams wanted to hear. So what did Nalcor do? They apparently reduced SNC Lavalin's role from full project management (EPCM) to one of engineering-only, and took on the project management duties themselves through that "integrated team" Mr. Wright mentions. That way, the risks and actual cost estimate of MF was kept from the public, the project got sanctioned, and the runaway train was waved and cheered from the station. Someone with some journalism skills should be digging deeper here. How were these 400 people that Mr. Wright mentions hired? Through what process? And by whom? And at what cost?Ohthehumanityhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04587778712218626715noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-67002358734739346772016-06-25T10:19:31.060-02:302016-06-25T10:19:31.060-02:30Bruno, you are up early this morning, with comment...Bruno, you are up early this morning, with comment posted at 07.54. But then , this boondoggle should keep more Nflders awake at night.<br /> You say that I forgot that the North Spur may fail. See my comment yesterday at 15:42, saying the worst that can happen is for the North Spur to fail. These are issues raised most by Cabot Martin and Maurice Adams, and I had long ago commented that this alone could be a half billion dollar fix, if a fix is even possible.<br /> My position has been that even the transmission line was not needed : 1. That up to 600 megawatts of demand reduction is possible and economic through aggressive cost effective efficiency measures. 2. That the transmission line may have serious reliability issues. St John`s depending on power from 1100 kw away with many risks, even if the towers stay up, it is subject to severe salt contamination caused outages. And has anyone but me ever mentioned geomagnetic induced currents, which caused the great Northeast blackout of 1989. A risk not even mentioned; cost to Hydro Quebec in 1989 ,some 1 billion. I had some experience with this issue in the 1970s when I worked with Hydro as an engineer.<br /> This project was a gamble and speculation. Still is, for both the dam and transmission line. <br /> Should we suck up the sunk costs or try and save the project. Marshall says try and save it, but at a steep cost. In terms of climate change, and offsetting oil and coal burning, it has value if it can be saved. This means looking at the regional and world energy problem. If for Nfld only, I would say shut down the whole thing , including the transmission line, but this then require aggressive efficiency and other measures. And this is not even on the radar in this province, yet. The new Liberal Canadian government seems committed to dealing with climate change. I think they should kick in several billion, not as a loan, but a grant, to this project, as infrastructure benefits justifiable under climate change programs. They kicked in 25 percent (100 million) toward the new Core Science building at MUN this week. <br />WinstonAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com