tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post5662703881520925956..comments2023-10-25T07:29:40.789-02:30Comments on UNCLE GNARLEY: LANDSLIDE'S AMAZING PICTURES STILL WON'T SPUR NALCOR Des Sullivanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02566013585647491614noreply@blogger.comBlogger26125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-44095864700477218312017-04-20T14:32:36.659-02:302017-04-20T14:32:36.659-02:30Have a good day Bruno. I do appreciate your posts...Have a good day Bruno. I do appreciate your posts. Your arguments are always in good faith!Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07341048560339265318noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-25945751352749108012017-04-20T14:30:41.958-02:302017-04-20T14:30:41.958-02:30I do have a lot to learn for sure. I have no trus...I do have a lot to learn for sure. I have no trust in outside advisors. They are like your financial advisor. Reminds me of the ad on TV when the guy asks his advisor "how come the fees and bank profits are so high yet returns so low". In 2002 HQ and NL had a deal to develop the lower Churchill. As usual, HQ would have assumed all risks and NL would receive a risk-free annuity. In 2005, a joint bid from Ontario and Quebec to develop the lower Churchill was also rejected. NL wanted to go it alone. How hard could a project like this be? I don't know much about SNC but I do know that it is unwise to rely on the kindness of strangers. Not sure if any of the other contracts are any better. Astaldi appears to have signed a contract on a 'cost-plus' basis - that is unheard of. I am simply saying that the ultimate blame has to rest on the NL government - They wanted to develop this alone - be careful what you wish for. It is sad really. You can't commit to a project of this size (close to 50% of GDP) without knowing what you are doing. Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07341048560339265318noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-36276181460828331652017-04-20T00:52:19.716-02:302017-04-20T00:52:19.716-02:30Don't take my word for it Bernard. See:
For a...Don't take my word for it Bernard. See:<br /><br />For a case study of the SNC playbook and the Alberta bills that ended transparency and shifted decisions into the backrooms see:<br />https://thetyee.ca/News/2011/05/26/WikileaksAlbertaElectricity/<br /><br />https://lailayuile.com/2012/03/04/moral-hazard-is-when-they-take-your-money-and-then-are-not-responsible-for-what-they-do-with-it-gordon-gekko/<br /><br />This is a good primer about the SNC playbook written in 2012. It outlines the overdesign, rich "fees" and government collusion to keep taxpayers in the dark. It also mocks how undemocratic this is with fitting quote from Gordon Gecko. You also have a lot to learn Bernard. Bruno Marcocchiohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08076165212559914463noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-24945356108009131422017-04-20T00:08:36.117-02:302017-04-20T00:08:36.117-02:30Thanks for the link Robert. It quantifies how much...Thanks for the link Robert. It quantifies how much can be saved by stopping site C now even with 1.5 billion in sunk costs. It makes clear that BC Hydro wildly overestimated demand! Yet the political decisions push it forward. Do you think that the rich contracts and abundant "fees" for the contract have anything to do with it?<br /><br />The unneeded power will have to be sold at a loss. Stopping now would save taxpayers 1.7 billion.<br />All sounds familiar does it not? Ignore the economics or the fact that it is unneeded, just plunge straight ahead. Bruno Marcocchiohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08076165212559914463noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-91505511300822126042017-04-19T23:53:41.007-02:302017-04-19T23:53:41.007-02:30This comment has been removed by the author.Bruno Marcocchiohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08076165212559914463noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-83894907747928349622017-04-19T23:45:01.501-02:302017-04-19T23:45:01.501-02:30This comment has been removed by the author.Bruno Marcocchiohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08076165212559914463noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-38147973778229814992017-04-19T21:49:44.333-02:302017-04-19T21:49:44.333-02:30Okay Bruno, so you are saying SNC is responsible f...Okay Bruno, so you are saying SNC is responsible for the size of this project (as well as site C). That SNC is responsible for short-circuiting the regulatory process in NL? So the feudal princes of SNC have foisted this project on wimpy ole Danny Williams. No doubt another conspiracy of Quebecers taking advantage of hapless NLers. Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07341048560339265318noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-35132325630028181212017-04-19T21:16:43.562-02:302017-04-19T21:16:43.562-02:30Winston, An oligarch is " a person who belong...Winston, An oligarch is " a person who belongs to a small group of people who govern or control a country, business, etc." An oligopoly is "a state of limited competition, in which a market is shared by a small number of producers or sellers."<br /><br />That seems to me to describe NL and its politics much more than your "democracy" that has no transparency or accountability or functioning regulatory regime.<br /><br />This is not just a semantic exercise. To meaningfully engage in politics it is essential to frame the politics accurately. Your "democracy" has become a hollow and meaningless construct that obscures the truth and keeps the oligarch's victims in a state of paralysis. <br /><br />See the reality and act accordingly. Expose the oligarchs and demand transparency. The media are complicit and protect vested interests, not the taxpayers. Bruno Marcocchiohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08076165212559914463noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-6386604370299509622017-04-19T17:23:51.126-02:302017-04-19T17:23:51.126-02:30Mike, the Telegram reports that the new mine for S...Mike, the Telegram reports that the new mine for St Lawrence got 17 million form the government and the company gave the Liberal party here 15,000.00........what Americans can Pay and Play. Amazing so little in donations can get so much........this at a time when they tax books and close libaries..... so you are right about propping up boondoogles, and to expect institutions or citizens to question and limit this behaviour ...... if too much to expect, then we continue to be a have not province, and maybe a bankrupt province.<br /> And Bruno....... oligarch refers to places like Russia, and yes, it seems we have conditions similar........even having people committed as mentally ill if they speak out (see the Court of Appeal statement yesterday......that we are in a dangerous place when authories do this...police takes a man to doctors to have him involantary committed......what is the difference between this and Russia, China, or North Korea.....so you are right.....our democracy is hollow, and the Charter of Rights and Freedoms made a mockery.<br /> We, as a province can be put in the poor house, and a few rob the riches, and are unaccountable, and worst of all, is the apathy of the people, and the media an accomplice to this plunder, by their silence and poor journalism.<br /> <br /> Such a rant can be dangerous, I guess. I often get a phone call from the RNC association asking for donations!. It should be illegal for them to do this......a form of intimidation in my opinion. I am tired of telling them they are not on my charitable list.<br />WA Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-78601363569769518662017-04-19T15:10:29.367-02:302017-04-19T15:10:29.367-02:30Winston don't forget that both projects have S...Winston don't forget that both projects have SNC Lavalin central in the boondoggle. Both use the SNC playbook honed overseas in projects that have resulted in charges and execs including the CEO fired.<br /><br />The playbook is build a project much larger than needed, short circuit regulatory processes, put rate/taxpayers on the hook with take or pay contracts, enshrine secrecy about contracts with eager jurisdictions that benefit politically from opaque decisions, and grease the wheels with lucrative payments to "agents" who arrange the deal.<br /><br />Like Muskrat there is no need for site C and yet the politics drives it forward despite the dubious economics or need. Should not this raise serious concerns about why and how decisions were made for Muskrat? Why is transparency not essential to protect rate/taxpayers in NL? Why does this go on and all when so much is at stake? Is protecting the guilty and their oligarch friends more important to politicians than the citizens or the viability of the treasury? When will these fundamental questions get addressed? When the guilty have left town and death and fiscal destruction is completed when the spur fails?<br /><br />It seems the feudal princes trump wimpy governments that pretend they are in charge. Your "democracy" is a hollow meaningless exercise. Bruno Marcocchiohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08076165212559914463noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-80910337254047742862017-04-19T12:47:42.146-02:302017-04-19T12:47:42.146-02:30Winston, MUN survives because of Government subsid...Winston, MUN survives because of Government subsidies so why bite the hand that feeds you? For far too long, Newfoundlander's have become too reliant on Government handouts to prop up economic boondoggles. Asking for institutions or citizens to "rise up" and challenge the status quo requires a good hard look at ourselves ... something most of us don't want to do. Mike Parsonshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16967319213008509195noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-56964711153893376892017-04-19T12:04:56.782-02:302017-04-19T12:04:56.782-02:30There is historical symmetry in how corporate boug...There is historical symmetry in how corporate bought "Tory minded", governments in both BC and NL, have sold its electorates on job making mega projects, not as they advertise the "better fiscal" model. Don't be fooled by the "Liberal" label. BC Liberal is Tory in drag.Robert G Holmeshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05356463540446993862noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-6072626262314869712017-04-19T11:54:32.105-02:302017-04-19T11:54:32.105-02:30Robert, since posting above, I Googled `UBC site C...Robert, since posting above, I Googled `UBC site C report` and found lots of summaries of that report.<br /> Amazing of the parallels of this and Muskrat, only Muskrat is probably 10 times worse, well, more like 3 times worse. I would advsie any reader to Google and read up on this BC site C thing, and UG should perhaps devote a piece on it: it calls for a Pause and a full review,,,,,,,,in other words put it On Ice, as Des Sullivan, Dave Vardy, and others have long advocated for Muskrat. The BC report is from UBC......where is our equivalent from MUN!!!!!!!!!!. <br /> Vast sums of money going to MUN, and bursting at the seems with guys with high fulutent degrees and letters and titles behind their names, and yet SILENCE on this boondoggle. We have been let down badly as a society by this institution of higher learning.<br />Winston AdamsAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-50303832640968420902017-04-19T11:16:51.362-02:302017-04-19T11:16:51.362-02:30Robert.......you suggest it is time for MUN to do ...Robert.......you suggest it is time for MUN to do a study......and ask does the public really give a Dam.<br /> I ask does MUN really give a DAMM!. I suggest not. MUN is getting it`s share of Nalcor dollars, I suggest, and are therefore not independent nor without bias, and explains their silence on concerns expressed in this blog. I had thought otherwise about MUN and hoped this was not the case, but like the media, who are influenced by ad revenue, it seems MUN has lost its credibility. It may have stated with Locke, as to Muskrat on this project, but goes beyond Locke. I could say more. <br /> I believe UG had previously questioned the operation of MUN, on an item by his brother, if memory serves.<br /> And I see that Ashley Fitzpatrick is getting a scholarship to permit her to better analyze technical matters involving resource issues. A bit late, I suggest, as to the our hydro resource, wind, conservation, and efficiency resources and the Muskrat boondoggle. And even with better knowledge, what good does it do to serve the public if the media is influenced by ad dollars, and avoid issues where ad dollars may vanish. MUN had the expertise to question the folly of Muskrat, but stood down and stayed silent. If MUN is silenced , what chance is it that Ashley will come to the rescue with her scholarship knowledge! Pity and shameful. The Telegram sort of admitting they are too ignorant on technical knowledge to be be effective to inform the public, on a 12 billion dollar blunder.<br /> I don`t buy it,as that lack of knowledge is the issue, as Russell is no dummy, but avoided important issues to expose the folly of Muskrat Madness. There was just a line that he would not cross, or not permitted to creoss, and not that he was incapable to understand the technical issues. <br />Winston AdamsAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-30867603898228982052017-04-19T08:56:55.426-02:302017-04-19T08:56:55.426-02:30A familiar story in the West. Site C Dam is "...A familiar story in the West. Site C Dam is "uneconomic"<br /><br />http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/site-c-suspension-ubc-report-1.4074750<br /><br />Time for MUN to do a UBC type study. We are in an election mode. Does the public really give a Dam!Robert G Holmeshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05356463540446993862noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-57390611938878410692017-04-18T14:24:15.894-02:302017-04-18T14:24:15.894-02:30You would think yes for sure..If there had been so...You would think yes for sure..If there had been some thinking done pre construction by these well educated smart people that everyone refers to here we might not be in this pickle..Im no politician or engineer but I'm smart enough to recognize that dirty smell that's coming from this project..Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09188317810864855680noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-63308289859074103912017-04-18T09:01:00.181-02:302017-04-18T09:01:00.181-02:30I think that I should clarify that irrespective of...I think that I should clarify that irrespective of the existing and continuing risks of flowslides, the above is not meant to dismiss or diminish Dr. Bernander's concerns, or to suggest that there is little or no difference between Nalcor and Dr. Bernander's positions. <br /><br />If, as Dr. Bernander suggests, Nalcor's analytical methods do not properly assess the risk of progressive failure on the North Spur, then Nalcor's existing stabilization measures are unlikely to make the North Spur safe. <br /><br />That is perhaps the most important question that needs to be addressed by an independent expert geotechnical review board.<br /><br />Maurice Adamsnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-16119154678931712992017-04-17T18:34:55.036-02:302017-04-17T18:34:55.036-02:30I would think that the Insurance Corporations must...I would think that the Insurance Corporations must by now be assessing "Construction Risks" with higher premiums. And the future, (post construction), General Insurers must be doing the same. Catastrophic "act of God" clauses and the like.Robert G Holmeshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05356463540446993862noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-88523025235019692442017-04-17T17:59:59.809-02:302017-04-17T17:59:59.809-02:30My son Bruno starting an uprising in newfoundland ...My son Bruno starting an uprising in newfoundland be like finding one street on the rock without a pot hole.....Its not gonna happen...We have become so thick skinned to whatever politicians dump on we have become immune to the effects of torture... Your concern of Cst Smyth visiting you in Cape Breton would be like me find someone here with a badge to stop the constant thunder of snow mobiles and four wheelers going up and down my street all hours of the night....It aint gonna happen .....Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09188317810864855680noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-64691710806766868662017-04-17T16:05:36.663-02:302017-04-17T16:05:36.663-02:30Mr Gordon has stated that it a job to simplify the...Mr Gordon has stated that it a job to simplify the technical analysis of the North Spur problem. <br />Maurice seems to boil down the issues in his description here.<br /> In my studies in the late 1960s at MUN, I did a civil course on soil analysis, but I recall nothing on quick clay, and detailed analysis on these issues were not well understood then. After a diploma from MUN, I continued to Nova Scotia for an electrical engineering degree, and afterwards worked 5 years with Nfld Hydro. So, I have no expertise in quick clay analysis, but some fundamental knowledge of dam construction.<br /> This piece shows a google photo (from Cabot Martin`s work), of the Muskrat Falls area, showing the North Spur etc. It does not show the large depression of almost 200 ft deep just downstream of the North Spur. I have seen from Maurice`s blog where this large hole is located and the steep slopes there.<br /> Mr Gordon mentions that the North Spur may require much lower slopes for stabilization, having a base twice that currently being done.This makes sense. It would appear that that may require a large earth works to fill in the deep hole and perhaps extending to a point near the bottom center of the google photo, to the right bank of the river, as that right bank seems to have past slides there.<br /> Engineering studies in the 1960s suggested that the stabilization of North Spur could be 10 percent of the cost to the overall dam and generation site. That would suggest some 600 million cost. Recent assessments suggested it could be done for perhaps 1 percent, so 60 million.<br /> I expect the inclusion of the cut off wall and other works exceeds 60 but is much less than 600 million. The question is whether the stabilization is adequate, and I doubt that it is.<br /> Perhaps Maurice, with input from Mr Gordon, would do a further piece for Uncle Gnarley, showing this large hole superimposed on the Google photo, and appropriate base size allowing for slopes as Gordon thinks necessary (both upstream and downstream), to give context for the non technical reader what is at stake here. It might serve as a template, should there be a failure, to indicate what proper stabilization should have been required.<br />WAAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-65868710398627758532017-04-17T13:19:34.323-02:302017-04-17T13:19:34.323-02:30I would suggest that in some respects government&#...I would suggest that in some respects government's/Nalcor's and Dr. Bernander's underlying positions (as I understand them) may in part be a distinction without a difference.<br /><br />Government/Nalcor says there is no evidence of "downhill progressive landslides' along the Churchill River Valley (a letter about a year ago from Minister Trimper to the Grand River Keepers re-stated that position). And government, Nalcor, SNC-Lavelin all take the position that the Edward's Island landslide is not a downhill progressive landslide, but a "Flowslide".<br /><br />However, such a distinction may, practically speaking, be almost irrelevant.<br /><br />Whether there is "Progressive" OR "Retrogressive" (Flowslide) Failure along the Churchill River Valley or on the North Spur itself --- the risk from either type is significant, and there is substantial evidence (PROOF)/agreement of retrogressive "Flowslides) on the North Spur.<br /><br />Either a 'progressive' or a 'retrogressive' (Flowslide) result in practically the same thing ----- not just a single, relatively short, landslide ('short' in terms of distance back from the shoreline). For example, the 1978 North Spur 'flowside' retrogressed (cut back into) the North Spur some 200 metres and reduced the breath at the top of the North Spur to a distance of about 80 metres.<br /><br />Nalcor, Hatch, SNC-Lavelin maintain and rely on an assessment that the Edward's Island slide was a "Flowslide", and that the 1978, 2-3 million cubic metre North Spur slide was not a downhill progressive slide, but a flowslide ---- and therefore their position is that the North Spur is not at risk from downhill 'progressive' landslides and is now safe (due to stabilization) from 'retrogressive' Flowslides.<br /><br />But whether the failure is 'progessive' or 'retrogressive' (flowslides), either can be of a catastrophic nature. A flowslide presents an equal, catastrophic threat to the stability of the North Spur.<br /><br />Nalcor's stabilization works relied in part on the selection of an above-surface steep slope on the north/downstream side of the Spur that had an inclination of about 66% as its worst/ 'reference' case. The analysis then included a comparison of other parts of the Spur to this reference case. <br /><br />Nalcor subsequently reduced the inclination of that 66% slope (and the other NS slopes) to less than 40% so as to reach what it considered an acceptable 'safety factor'. <br /><br />Notwithstanding this decision, portions of the BELOW SURFACE slope at a downstream deep hole had, and still has, a slope inclination of 80% (well above the 66% 'worst case'/reference) slope used to develop/analyse the North Spur and design the existing stabilization works.<br /><br />Even though that downstream, subsurface, deep hole slope still exists, SNC-Lavelin/Nalcor's Dec. 2015 Progressive Failure Report states that "even if there were a first time failure in this (Lower Clay) unit, there would not be retrogression and flowslide".<br /><br />However, a year earlier, Hatch's 'Cold Eye' Review reported to Nalcor that Liquidity Index (LI) "Values in excess of 1 are an indication of the potential for both liquefaction and flow type failures" ----- (and the Liquidity Index values for the Lower Clay layer, portions of which are in direct contact with that 80% slope, ranges from 0.1 to 2).<br /><br />Since some lower clay Liquidity Index results have values above 1, and Hatch says that Liquidity Index values "in excess of 1 are an indication of the potential for both liquefaction and flow type failures", how can SNC-Lavelin/Nalcor's Progressive Failure Report state that "even if there were a first time failure in this (Lower Clay) unit, there would not be retrogression and flowslide"?<br /><br />The facts, the evidence, call out for anomalies such as these to be reconciled by an independent and expert geotechnical review board.<br />Maurice Adamsnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-78479416007009709552017-04-17T12:45:01.238-02:302017-04-17T12:45:01.238-02:30I hope that comment about an uprising does not get...I hope that comment about an uprising does not get me a visit from Cst. Smyth. Does he have jurisdiction in Cape Breton? I had better burn all the sticks I have around the house:<)Bruno Marcocchiohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08076165212559914463noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-11170778851835932202017-04-17T12:08:25.724-02:302017-04-17T12:08:25.724-02:30This is a good summation Winston. Not only did `Th...This is a good summation Winston. Not only did `They just let it slide` but they pissed away the money as quickly as possible in a gruesome attempt to make stopping or asking questions about the spur failing irrelevant. <br /><br />Remember that the PUB has dismissed independent evidence of reliability issues. They seem to have an aversion to competent independent analysis. I would suggest this is by design and not likely to change with the oversight committee getting fresh lipstick. It still looks like a pig to me.<br /><br />The question is what political pressure can be brought to bear to implement a prudent review of the spur engineering? The opposition parties are complicit in the silence. Stan and Gil are in hiding and resemble Stan and Ollie in their scripted mantra that all is well....just don't ask for evidence or competent engineering studies.<br /><br />Radio talk show hosts have learned that if you are not toadies and ask tough questions about Muskrat or the devastation fish farms will bring from virtually unregulated salmon farms using frankenfish and banned chemicals, you will be purged.<br /><br />Hoping responsible parties, regulators, political opposition, public advocates, the media will suddenly overcome the negligence and collusion that has been the reality and do justice to this destructive project before the spur fails, is beyond faint hope and more resembles the definition of insanity, expecting different results this time.<br /><br />It will take an uprising by rate/taxpayers to force the issue.Bruno Marcocchiohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08076165212559914463noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-49108251166611176512017-04-17T11:33:50.980-02:302017-04-17T11:33:50.980-02:30Just a bunch of NALCOR Cable TV guys playing in th...Just a bunch of NALCOR Cable TV guys playing in the muck.Robert G Holmeshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05356463540446993862noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-26869693212954289462017-04-17T10:52:14.480-02:302017-04-17T10:52:14.480-02:30And is the Telegram off to running start for impo...And is the Telegram off to running start for important local issues, as promised by owner Mr Lever in his Note to readers.<br /> Well, one of the top stories is a reprint from Ontario that real easter bunnies being released is a problem this time of year. <br /> Russell writes on the delayed justice issues. That is: if you can drag out a matter that is before the courts, long enough, it can finally get thrown out, 18 to 30 months is the limit. This is a technique mostly by defense lawyers, or proseution lawyers if they want to let matters SLIDE. <br /> Easy to see how the SLIDE principle can be very effective, so no one ever gets punishment if there is failure of the North Spur. Lawyers will offer their services for expertise for the SLIDE principle defense. They will teach this technique when the new MUN law school opens. The course will have evidence based components, called CORE SCIENCE, in this case, CORE SLIDE SCIENCE, from a legal perspective.<br />PFAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com