tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post6174101296015222660..comments2023-10-25T07:29:40.789-02:30Comments on UNCLE GNARLEY: JUDGE LeBLANC TO REPLACE JIMMY KIMMEL AS NL's MEDIA SENSATIONDes Sullivanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02566013585647491614noreply@blogger.comBlogger134125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-73900935890716972172019-08-25T23:09:21.531-02:302019-08-25T23:09:21.531-02:30Letters to the Telegram;
Andy Wells on Stan, Altee...Letters to the Telegram;<br />Andy Wells on Stan, Alteen and Fortis how they stayed under the cone of silence to let the boondoggle get sanctioned ...only 192 readers on line<br /> Dave Vardy on the North Spur risk......only 106 readers online.<br />Small unimportant matters, hey?<br />WinstonAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-29712122832693451572019-08-25T10:32:25.970-02:302019-08-25T10:32:25.970-02:30To UG readers: assuming you followed the Inquiry, ...To UG readers: assuming you followed the Inquiry, you may have seen questioning , in particular by Inquiry counsel Collins on the transmission line design , whether it was designed for a 1 in 50 year event, or 1 in 500 year (being more robust).<br /> Was there any question to any witness on the design of the dams, spillway and power house, and in particular the vulnerable North Spur? Anyone recall any such discussion and question? Design for an event in 1 in 10,000 years......does this ring a bell? <br /> These events are usuallyin terms of a worse case earthquake and a severe flood conditions for high rainfall.<br /> Was it discussed?<br /> If not does anyone know the design criteria. I assume PENG2 does?<br />Did Dave Varvy or Des Sullivan, or MA hear this discussed? If it was, I missed it.<br />Winston AdamsAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-90097244218842778702019-08-24T16:49:23.864-02:302019-08-24T16:49:23.864-02:30Only 1 hr later and already I wonder if my posting...Only 1 hr later and already I wonder if my posting @ 14:57 is too reassuring. I see that Canada is divided up into 3 zones: west , central and east. Many quakes occur near ancient faults where main rivers now lie, such as the St Lawrence. So too, the Churchill River seems to separate the stable central zone from the east zone, the north side of MFs being stable and south not so much, so the two earthquakes were on the south side.<br /> Other issues raise concern as to earthquake safety , especially liquification concerns in this east zone. <br /> I say OMG, maybe Bruno may be part right, that the guys who specialise in earthquake risk should get more attention? Recall Bruno dismissed Jim Gordon"s force calculation, coming from hydro engineers, and referencing the Geological Survey of Canada pros.<br /> Maybe I will have to eat crow, and put additional weight to that side of the risks? The "force" being static loads, vs vibrations from earthquakes. At present with impounding, static loads are increasing. If so , can I survive the personal attacks from Bruno? My mental health being fragile, he may just push me over the cliff, or have me run for that Aurora pot.<br /> First a question, maybe PENG2, or someone can answer. Is the North Spur and all dams at MFs designed for a 1/10,000 event? If not, what is the design?<br />Winston AdamsAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-28783924072086257692019-08-24T16:22:10.162-02:302019-08-24T16:22:10.162-02:30Yes and we are too.Yes and we are too.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-54517808949392198022019-08-24T14:57:07.713-02:302019-08-24T14:57:07.713-02:30Is the North Spur at risk from earthquakes?
The e...Is the North Spur at risk from earthquakes?<br /> The earthquake map of canada shows thousands of earthquakes, about 4 in Nfld (11 counting a few miles offshore), and only 2 inland in Labrador, one being about 4.5 maybe and another about 3.0, these about 100 miles from MFs.<br /> Of the many in Canada since the early 1600s, only about 160 are significant and 27 of them important, one of which was off Nfld south coast in 1929 at 7.2 reading.<br /> Vibration from earthquakes seems a low risk for MFs, especially those of concrete on bedrock. The North Spur seems would be more at risk that the other dams there, due to the foundation including quick clay. Even so, vibration from other than earthquakes may be more of a concern. <br />Winston Adams <br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-66093614135044355752019-08-24T10:36:57.930-02:302019-08-24T10:36:57.930-02:30Nalcor has successfully raised the reservoir level...Nalcor has successfully raised the reservoir level another 1 meter. Likely they'll hold there for 4 more days and check conditions. Elevation rose from 32 to 33m, so 6 more meters to go, another 19.5 ft. Many more of those 4 x 4 diesels truck equivalent, mentioned by Jim Gordon, pushing pounds of pressure on the North Spur, about 690 million lbs when at 39m. <br /> Of course physicist Bruno dismissed that estimate of Gordon's. Inconsistent with physics said Bruno, agreeing with some anonymous person who commented. Of course "pounds" can be used for both mass and force under the British system. I and PENG2 did not dispute the figure used by Gordon, but we are of the "lead ring" variety engineer, unable to do analysis says Bruno, who is now an authority on engineering of all sorts, and also on physics. He learned all this from his 2 week fishery course 25 years ago, the details he keeps secret.<br />Further, he switches his main concern of failure to the concrete North dam instead. I call on Bruno to apologise to Gordon and also to PENG2. He can hold on his apology to me, and cover them later on for several due, all in one swoop, once he reflects and sees his errors.<br /> Meanwhile I await Bruno's risk of failure guess for the North Spur.<br />Maybe he has flipped and now thinks it is perfectly safe, as Stan says, so o risk of failure. His silence on the North Spur is deafening. Has Nalcor hired him?<br />WinstonAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-60709346359040176082019-08-23T22:46:06.245-02:302019-08-23T22:46:06.245-02:30The CBC piece on Parsons: as to failure to do the ...The CBC piece on Parsons: as to failure to do the wet capping. Parsons says last year it was a busy summer, much important things going on, like the cannabis legislation. Hmmmmmm, Aurora pot etc more important than the wet capping,... not sure if even Bruno would swallow or puff on that excuse. Parsons is upset that Ches is calling for an investigation, as Parson was minister at the time. Parsons says Ches is just "throwing mud" at him. Is this just plain mud or quick clay variety?<br /> Can the mud stick, and make our justice minister unstable? Imagine the mud slinging if the Spur fails. All MHAs will take a chartered flight out of the province, running like Squires after the riot in 1932.<br /> Pray that she holds, I hope so, but hope is not engineering best practice.<br />Winston <br /><br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-43653712897020073182019-08-23T21:37:22.164-02:302019-08-23T21:37:22.164-02:30Drop the capitals, Bruno, least you blow a gasket....Drop the capitals, Bruno, least you blow a gasket. With many capitals you imitate the person who called you vile, and then blamed me,then lied as to that, and then blame Eteinne.<br /> Nevertheless you cleverly ask a good questions while avoiding my question. The risk factor of failure you are afraid to say lest you be wrong, which is impossible, right?<br /> My sanity factor ebbs and flows. By the notion of trying to teach you some basic analysis or even common sense opinions, I keep failing, but keep trying, by definition I must have a very low S factor, or else have the patience of Job. You must conclude it is a low S factor, to again attack and not be civil. <br /> So i turn the other cheek, once more. I am reluctant to question your S factor without more insight, as you give only snippets.<br /> You promote Aurora pot, but what dosage? <br /> If you test your pee, like me, what else might be there? I give you my result, but you are not so transparent. You are like lawyers Ralph and Coffey and Simmons, wanting secrecy, not openness and transparency. I am more like Norway, but you more like the colonials Brits, i just wonder?<br /> Afraid to state your opinion of the Spur risk factor! Speaking truth to power? You are tongue tied it seems. Be a man, not a mouse, at least squeak up, say the number. Did you not once say you could just look at the terrain there and say it would fail? Now you fear otherwise?<br />WinstonAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-9971360636343901872019-08-23T21:10:58.113-02:302019-08-23T21:10:58.113-02:30Check back Bruno on integration, I wondered if it ...Check back Bruno on integration, I wondered if it was ever a part of the Nalcor specifications or realised after the fact, so maybe GE had no original requirement to do this complex integration? Were simulations done by consultants ever before sanction that all this would work ok? Or push ahead and worry after, like too with the North Spur problem.<br /> So they will help GE? at some point they must allow them to move from theory and software design to "let's try it "......so to that extent Nalcor, Nfld Hydro and Nfld power must be on guard for possible mishap and failure.....in January month! Houston....we may then have a problem?<br />WinstonAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-52524690116848419802019-08-23T18:21:59.782-02:302019-08-23T18:21:59.782-02:30"“While our contractor, GE, has faced challen..."“While our contractor, GE, has faced challenges in the development of the required software, we are continuing to assist them in being successful in the development and integration of the bi-pole software that is required to safely and reliably operate the Labrador-Island Link,” stated a spokeswoman for Nalcor Energy,"<br /><br />Nalcor Bozo's assisting GE, holy shit it is worst than I thought! GE was supposed to have the expertise to integrate MF and LIL. <br /><br />Blockhead Stan is sticking to the political agenda. There will be no updates to cost increases until after the next election. He will admit no cost increases no matter how bizzare it gets the next four months.Bruno Marcocchiohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08076165212559914463noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-74345716652374859172019-08-23T17:56:40.921-02:302019-08-23T17:56:40.921-02:30yOU HAVE LOST IT WHIrLING YOUR DERVISH WITH THAT T...yOU HAVE LOST IT WHIrLING YOUR DERVISH WITH THAT THERMOMETER. You have not a clue and again I was drawn into your trolling nonsense. Anyone taking you seriously now is as lost as you are. <br /><br />What is your S Factor?? Sanity Quotient.Bruno Marcocchiohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08076165212559914463noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-61706946837431249032019-08-23T15:57:05.385-02:302019-08-23T15:57:05.385-02:30Interesting that you agree with and copy PENG2 who...Interesting that you agree with and copy PENG2 who stated your opinion of @ 15;39, and which is largely valid, but does not exclude making an opinion as to risk, based on one's experience and knowledge and even common sense.So disagree it is worth doodly squat. If I am off base, then in which direction? Be brave Bruno, don't be a bully and attack the messanger. State the P risk factor.<br />WinstonAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-71341983567015231792019-08-23T15:46:15.139-02:302019-08-23T15:46:15.139-02:30So ...Bruno, you go off on a tangent, as to the c...So ...Bruno, you go off on a tangent, as to the cause of am acute failure, not the risk.<br />Call the risk a P factor<br />The pressure, a force , the F factor<br />The vibration the V factor,<br />The salt , the S factor<br />The increased temperature of the soil and moisture might reduce the salt content more, so call it the T factor. As this is a very slow effect it is probably the least critical of the factors. I did not calibrate my thermometer, nor lubricate my slide rule to arrive at the numbers. <br /> Rather than go off on a tangents, what is your P factor, Bruno? P1 being 1 % safe, P100 absolute safe as Stan stated?<br />Winston<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-66889075512477965252019-08-23T15:39:34.594-02:302019-08-23T15:39:34.594-02:30In other words over time things do NOT remain the ...In other words over time things do NOT remain the same so no amount of any whirling slide rule dirvish amounts to a hill of magic beans. <br /><br />Without a detailed exam of the spur using appropriate methodologies one might be able to determine LIKELY fault zones but a definitive temporal assessment based on a whirling thermometers and slide rules is worth doodly squat!Bruno Marcocchiohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08076165212559914463noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-54287420326436667522019-08-23T15:28:11.263-02:302019-08-23T15:28:11.263-02:30Beware Robert Winston has his thermometer and slid...Beware Robert Winston has his thermometer and slide rule whirling. Forget that it is pressure PLUS VIBRATION that is the risk. Plus quick clay fails when enough salt is washed out of the spur material. WA thermometer has it all worked out!Bruno Marcocchiohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08076165212559914463noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-58295967893443137122019-08-23T15:11:40.521-02:302019-08-23T15:11:40.521-02:30I rarely disagree with Andrew Nikiforuk's anal...I rarely disagree with Andrew Nikiforuk's analysis but this time I do.<br /><br />I am clearly in the GND Green New Deal camp but I think we can save ourselves with an all out effort, A global Marshal Plan to do two things.<br /><br />1.Use aggressive DSM to cut global energy use by that 30% for a 30-per-cent drop in energy consumption.<br />2.Now that renewables Wind/sun/batteries are cheaper than fossil the paradigm changes. A combination of wind/sun/batteries appropriate to location can be transferred anywhere in the developing world. No need for long expensive delivery systems. The energy can be produced close to the need to avoid the fatal "Muskrat Falls" syndrome.<br /><br />It is also a myth that there needs to be an economic disruption. The new energy paradigm will produce more jobs than dirty oil/coal/gas extraction.Bruno Marcocchiohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08076165212559914463noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-49598774769397265932019-08-23T14:45:20.604-02:302019-08-23T14:45:20.604-02:30Winston, my muteness on the subject is that there ...Winston, my muteness on the subject is that there is 100% no endangerment to me personally, with the expected slow slippage failure of the glacial clay underbed at the Spur. I will be long gone, and my ashes enriched compost heap will be producing food supply to the neighbourhood.Robert G Holmeshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05356463540446993862noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-16848523396755214552019-08-23T14:39:41.316-02:302019-08-23T14:39:41.316-02:30So what is the 5yr Budget for upgrades at Holyrood...So what is the 5yr Budget for upgrades at Holyrood?<br />How many solar panels with hot water collection to offset oil burn?<br />How many windmills to supplement more expensive hydro?<br />Tor, give me your 20yr plan!:-)Robert G Holmeshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05356463540446993862noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-44518932700208282142019-08-23T14:29:10.816-02:302019-08-23T14:29:10.816-02:30No one on Ug willing to state their estimate of ac...No one on Ug willing to state their estimate of acute complete North Spur failure, not even PENG2, so I will say this:<br />Risk of such failure is 20 %, so 80 % no such failure.<br />If no failure, then risk of such failure within 1st year, 10 %, 90 % no such failure.<br />If no such failure, then risk within 5 years is 5 % , so 95 % no such failure,<br /> Beyond 5 years risk stays at 5 %, no failure 95 %<br />Winston AdamsAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-76170915153278150092019-08-23T13:03:43.195-02:302019-08-23T13:03:43.195-02:30The article below states that GE Power has a $92 b...The article below states that GE Power has a $92 billion dollar backlog so they aren't delivering or completing projects fast enough, or sold projects that were beyond their capabilities. I can see GE being forced to sell it off and many of its customers being stranded.<br /><br />Also "This month, Fitch Ratings shifted to a negative outlook for its credit rating on GE citing power’s poor outlook and a need to cut costs, improve project completion and address quality issues. "<br /><br />https://www.wsj.com/articles/ge-power-has-a-92-billion-backlog-for-new-boss-thats-a-problem-11550068479 <br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-39812081708024209212019-08-23T12:49:06.924-02:302019-08-23T12:49:06.924-02:30Not surprised about the software delay, and that p...Not surprised about the software delay, and that poor power reliability was a key problem with the scheme, but ignored until recently. Goes to show Stan was not a straight shooter to say Oct 31, now moved to Jan 2020, so this gives Leblanc an escape hatch on that. One of his "experts" said he never knew reliability of a transmission line to be a problem, which is utter bullshit. <br /> Getting ready for lawsuits, giving the contractors 6 more months to shit or get off the pot as to a solution. January is a bad time for testing/commissioning, under winter conditions, and could trigger a grid collapse.<br /> So the plan now is to send MFs power west, and hope HQ agrees to take some. Good news likley is that it delays shock rates for the island a little longer ?Bad news is that we again depend on Holyrood . How fast can Elon Musk get a few giant Bruno batteries set up?<br /> As to heatpumos, if memory serves, in 2012, my analysis, published with the Telegram suggested ramping up minisplits to about 13,000 per year, so 130,000 over 10 years, boosted by incentives. <br /> Last year, without incentives, our small contractors did an excellent job of installing 12,000, and this frightens the power companies as to revenue loss. Whether that will level off, decline, or increase, time will tell.<br /> Many heatpumps reduces the burden on Holyrood, and reduces fuel use, and could make Bruno battery last 3 times longer, (cost is an issue).Where our wind turbines? Forgot, Hatch was asked to edit their recommendations, to squash that, and LeBlanck turned a blind eye.<br /> The small business association, last week, wanted input into PUB deliberations, but Ball said no. In NS they had such representation, for input on countering high power rates. Whatever NS does, we do the opposite, because we have dickheads in control. We should a dickhead award yearly. Maybe the Uncle can set it up?.<br />Winston AdamsAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-30977400359401676442019-08-23T12:45:19.290-02:302019-08-23T12:45:19.290-02:30It could be a real mess from a control software po...It could be a real mess from a control software point of view. If during a bankruptcy GE loses a few good mathematicians / engineers that are designing the power electronics control mechanisms and that will be end of bug fixing. Nalcor might even have to switch to a different manufacturer at great cost. This isn't business programming -- it is hard core electrical engineering and advanced mathematics.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-16044504909096968352019-08-23T12:20:14.994-02:302019-08-23T12:20:14.994-02:30No worries about selling out of heat pumps - the w...No worries about selling out of heat pumps - the world is a huge place and we are but half a million people. I can see seasoned wood being sold out ... the population is most dense on the Avalon Peninsula and that area either never had good forests, or they were cut generations ago and never recovered. Good birch is a few hundred kilometers away.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-34291887667782083042019-08-23T12:15:26.111-02:302019-08-23T12:15:26.111-02:30Some unsolicited advice:
1) Plastic (e.g. Rheem M...Some unsolicited advice:<br /><br />1) Plastic (e.g. Rheem Marathon) and stainless steel tanks, both with stainless elements are available in Newfoundland. These will last you your lifetime. They are about $800 to $1000 and may save you a few basement floods.<br /><br />2) Install a tempering valve (or mixing valve) at the tank. This way you can have it hot enough in the tank to kill bacteria and amoeba and then cool the hot water down as it leaves the tank. It is a mechanical thermostatic device that allow some cold to mix with the hot. You can get them with pex fittings and they are easy to set up.<br /><br />The bacteria thing is not a problem if you use oil/gas because those tanks have a kill zone when the flames are burning.<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-77678863668665301772019-08-23T11:51:18.780-02:302019-08-23T11:51:18.780-02:30Stan is experiencing delays in commissioning the T...Stan is experiencing delays in commissioning the Transmission Link to the Island;<br /><br />https://www.thetelegram.com/news/regional/labrador-island-link-wont-be-ready-for-start-of-winter-344016/<br /><br />Winston, how are heatpump installations doing?<br /><br />Wood stoves must be selling out, and stockpiled birch must be fetching a fair price.Robert G Holmeshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05356463540446993862noreply@blogger.com