tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post7749709983515401262..comments2023-10-25T07:29:40.789-02:30Comments on UNCLE GNARLEY: WHAT TO MAKE OF THOSE CONFOUNDING POLLSDes Sullivanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02566013585647491614noreply@blogger.comBlogger48125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-53708365776569804482019-05-15T09:34:21.524-02:302019-05-15T09:34:21.524-02:30MHI did NOT assure us that Nalcor had the forecast...MHI did NOT assure us that Nalcor had the forecast right Winston. For a report about Nalcor practices MHI were remarkably honest in calling out Nalcor deficiencies.Bruno Marcocchiohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08076165212559914463noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-11946005146136553802019-05-15T09:29:45.232-02:302019-05-15T09:29:45.232-02:30I was quoting the MHI report to Nalcor. They point...I was quoting the MHI report to Nalcor. They pointed out that current best practice looked forward at technological changes (heat pumps for eg.) population trends etc. and not only backwards as Nalcor had done. What did you include in the PUB submission?Bruno Marcocchiohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08076165212559914463noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-31047417493544960952019-05-14T23:14:42.230-02:302019-05-14T23:14:42.230-02:30I see MA on his blog Vison 2041 questioned the fau... I see MA on his blog Vison 2041 questioned the faulty rationale of Nalcor forecasting as early as Dec 2011 with considerable common sense data,(some published in the Telegram) much from Nalcor's own historical information, and good charts, all of course ignored by the so called experts. But how could this expect to stand up against the assurances of MHI etc. Can't fault the average ratepayer for not being able to forecast if the power companies couldn't do it.<br />WAAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-66877532146186045732019-05-14T22:46:29.736-02:302019-05-14T22:46:29.736-02:30Forecasting power needs is very difficult.Fred Wil...Forecasting power needs is very difficult.Fred Wilcox, an occasional commentator on UG worked in planning, and I think forecasting, and might comment? <br />Problems and best practices were also identified during the PUB hearings. At the start of this Inquiry, after Straton, I mentioned issues of econmetric, end-use, technology factor, interactive effects that capture most items. Based on that Nalcor missed a lot as to best practices. Also trends is important, especially for heating. April issue of Plumbing+HVAC shows technology trends in Canada: Heat pump trends is 3 times that of electric heat,and 7 times that of oil (Straton betting on continuing electric heat), and trends were known prior to sanction.<br /> To assess all of this requires considerable analysis, was not done , and the Inquiry has done no deep dive to show the errors.<br /> Anyone can say the forecast will be wrong,and certain to be right. But wrong by how much? To end up with negative growth was possible and likely. P50s is 50/50 , so how to get high reliability on forecasting is the key. <br /> I wonder what models and arithmetic Bruno used to arrive at his conclusion? Did he state what the nforecast would be over 5/10/20 years?<br />I have not seen his input on forecasting mentioned as to the JPR, if anyone can clarify the method used? <br /> We know Straton took no forecasting update courses in his prior 15 years or so, if I recall correctly, and I suggest was unqualified for this task. If required to safeguard our welfare, dooes mean he was incompetent and guilty of malpractice, or that a bridge too far? 12.7 billion, wasted, can cover a lot of welfare, due to a wrong power forecast. <br />Winston Adams<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-58749343371978716842019-05-14T17:37:12.290-02:302019-05-14T17:37:12.290-02:30Most of the "engineering and project manageme...Most of the "engineering and project management on the project" voted PC, and are about ready to give them back the big stick of majority government. Those poor souls who gave Ball the big stick last time, were misguided into thinking that getting rid of a few gold diggers of the "Integrated management team", would bring inner peace and pity on the ratepayers, were delusional, and cheated.Robert G Holmeshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05356463540446993862noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-42178528925974602972019-05-14T17:11:32.600-02:302019-05-14T17:11:32.600-02:30It is very revealing that the PC party that champi...It is very revealing that the PC party that championed and sanctioned this boondoggle support the fact that the engineering and project management on the project could even be worse than we already know from the inquiry!!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-33067008239075650262019-05-14T16:19:05.326-02:302019-05-14T16:19:05.326-02:30Good one Bruno !!
I agree, and I should have thou...Good one Bruno !!<br /><br />I agree, and I should have thought of that.Maurice Adamsnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-76976225978944259222019-05-14T16:14:47.991-02:302019-05-14T16:14:47.991-02:30Interesting issue PENG2, and I would probably need...Interesting issue PENG2, and I would probably need a cart load of business, engineering, ethics, management, etc. PhD's to provide an informed opinion on that one.<br /><br />But off the cuff, it seems to me that some would have a direct, some indirect, and some both direct and indirect duty that would normally be achieved by fulfilling his or her obligations in as most of a professional manner as possible (and as a minimum to the standard specified by their respective professional organizations, best practices and their duty to the appropriate job requirements specified by their employer/reporting entity). <br /><br />The people electing a government does not (in my view) diminish the appropriately applicable level, degree and manner of duty of that government, Nalcor execs, Nalcor HR staff, PMT seniors, or Nalcor's imput into MF PMT) as appropriate for each group/individual level.<br /><br />I would hesitate to say any more on that.<br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />Maurice Adamsnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-71589146942768727492019-05-14T16:08:43.565-02:302019-05-14T16:08:43.565-02:30You are wrong as usual PEGzero. I put the flawed f...You are wrong as usual PEGzero. I put the flawed forecasting methodology on the record at the JRP. Manitoba Hydro (MHI) pointed that out to Nalcor. Why rewrite the history PEGzero??Bruno Marcocchiohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08076165212559914463noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-37178110528413564932019-05-14T16:02:45.701-02:302019-05-14T16:02:45.701-02:30Interesting, all parties except Ball and the Liber...Interesting, all parties except Ball and the Liberals will order a panel to assess this.<br /> WAAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-18136473363463585592019-05-14T16:00:24.729-02:302019-05-14T16:00:24.729-02:30One small point Maurice. "The Liberal govern...One small point Maurice. "The Liberal government took over the MF agenda, lock, stock and barrel, and did nothing more that change horses (from Martin to Marshall)" It appears the Liberals changed from a horse to a mule. <br /><br /> Marshall is stubbornly clinging to his "lets get her done" mantra we have been hearing without pause for reflection, on the mission. The mule has never wondered does this plan (MF) make any sense.Bruno Marcocchiohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08076165212559914463noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-1012870073658562902019-05-14T15:55:29.455-02:302019-05-14T15:55:29.455-02:30Troubling other than the politics of this boondog...Troubling other than the politics of this boondoggle, is as to engineering failure. <br /> Engineers and geoscientists are to "uphold the values of truth, honesty, and trustworthiness and safeguard human life and welfare and the environment", These are basic tenets of the profession, and only give advise and services where they have competence to practise in a careful manner, otherwise is it professionally incompetent. <br /> Have/are the values cited ( human life and welfare and the environment) being safeguarded, given the evidence of this Inquiry?<br />Winston AdamsAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-44721087933085045962019-05-14T15:21:23.849-02:302019-05-14T15:21:23.849-02:30MA @ 14:36:
Maybe its a bit of an academic exerci...MA @ 14:36:<br /><br />Maybe its a bit of an academic exercise, but probably important especially since we are dealing with an Inquriy:<br />1) public elects government<br />2) government appoints Nalcor exec<br />3) Nalcor HR hires staff<br />4) Nalcor exec appoints MF PMT seniors<br />5) Nalcor probably has some input into the MF PMT<br /><br />I have trouble with the chain of duty - does Nalcor and the MF PMT actually have a duty to the people? Practically, probably not but morally yes - but how to reconcile this?<br /><br /><br />No doubt there is an idealized responsibility to the people - but do the people give up some of this when electing MHAs to run government?<br />PENG2<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-62726849143711864002019-05-14T14:57:48.437-02:302019-05-14T14:57:48.437-02:30Independent review of the North Spur?
http://vocm...Independent review of the North Spur?<br /><br />http://vocm.com/news/three-parties-show-interest-in-panel-assessing-muskrat-falls-north-spur/Maurice Adamsnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-25328745578531446452019-05-14T14:36:01.140-02:302019-05-14T14:36:01.140-02:30MF being a political decision does not let Nalcor ...MF being a political decision does not let Nalcor off the hook for professional project planning and management/analyses, best practice, realistic vision re a future decentralized energy paradigm, etc,. etc.Maurice Adamsnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-68022239808303895482019-05-14T14:26:55.146-02:302019-05-14T14:26:55.146-02:30WA, MA etc:
MWH said that Nalcors power demand pr...WA, MA etc:<br /><br />MWH said that Nalcors power demand projection methodology was flawed from the start, I don't remember much opposition to this. The FLG said 'good utility practice' - I don't think good practice was applied, rather a practice was adopted to get the desired end result.<br /><br />If we assume MF was a political decision (as Ma says, I don't disagree) - doesn't that then mean that faulty analysis at Nalcor isn't the real problem, rather governance is?<br /><br />The problem was the public bought the 'energy warehouse' scheme and allowed a political group too much leeway - again we allowed MF to happen.<br /><br />PENG2Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-84530078645011908462019-05-14T14:14:42.693-02:302019-05-14T14:14:42.693-02:30The whole inquiry is manusha (when compared to the...The whole inquiry is manusha (when compared to the underlying/core problem).<br /><br />Also, Nalcor had nothing to do with recommending Muskrat ---- Nalcor's so-called recommendation was little more than window dressing.<br /><br />Nalcor was merely the means/tool used by the premier, cabinet and public servants to put a non-political face on a politician decision.<br /><br />The so-called options analysis was designed to produce a predetermined (politically determined) outcome ---- and a hoax on ratepayers/citizens.Maurice Adamsnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-49740189447263916522019-05-14T14:12:54.431-02:302019-05-14T14:12:54.431-02:30As to 5 layers of failed risk management I mention...As to 5 layers of failed risk management I mentioned leading up to EY, we can add 2 more: I missed GT (Grant Thomston) and now too this Leblanc Inquiry, so that is 7 layers. If there was criminal activity, the police would be layer 8.<br /> PENG2 notes the disclaimers by these crafty consultants, legal protection, which says all of what we tell you and our opinions may be false, because we depend on info that may be false or incomplete, so you can't blame us or sue us, if you depend on what our report says. This the craft of the lawyers to protect the crooked ones,protecting them from being honest and forthright. <br /> So , previous PENG2 cites Tom Marshall as better than a few others, and true, TM did have a better reputation than many. But yesterday, evidence showed Tom citing EY's name as proof that "Robust " oversight was being provided.......which of course was false of Tom Marshall.<br /> Bruno gets a pass, awol, but for medical issues, so I encourage others to keep posting, for the Shadow Inquiry as Robert says. I with reasons like Bruno, miss more than I wish.<br /> As to MA,(Maurice) and the deep dive into the symptoms of a cooked up boondoggle:<br /> Yes, Leblanc essentially skipped over the issue: Do we need the power, is it lowest cost, is it reliable? He brushed by this like a rock from space, 200,000 miles off, passes by earth, so no disturbance, no deep dive by this Inquiry.<br /> Leblanc skipped over what should, I submit, be no more than 2 billion to meet our power needs, by alternatives not considered at all, or not properly assessed. Leblanc jumps from 2 billion to 6.2 billion, avoiding to look at that 4.2 billion. And now the deep dive so how we went from 6.2 to 10.1 billion, not including interest during construction.<br /> Terms of reference crafted to permit that fly by and not looking at the 4.2 billion gap. Say decision making was based on best available information. That is a crock of BS. <br /> And now it is coming back to haunt us. MFs is not reliable to permit decommissioning Holyrood. Holyrood is old and questionable reliability. So more generation needed, and PUB and Nalcor now assessing options that should have been assesses before. Much more money to be spent for avoiding the reasonable alternatives originally.<br /> A sham if Leblanc avoids a deep dive into that 4.2 billion, leading to over 10 billion waste. Is that why Kate left, to avoid such a deep dive, assuming she was even capable to dive deep?<br /> A scandal in itself, I suggest, how our vast wind resource got short changed in this process, and not even a high level ( a small peep under the covers) of that issue by this Inquiry. <br />Winston AdamsAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-31475245712661069142019-05-14T14:01:41.165-02:302019-05-14T14:01:41.165-02:30Wayne @ 13:32 (and MA):
Not sure why you think th...Wayne @ 13:32 (and MA):<br /><br />Not sure why you think those people are chuckling - Id say the opposite.<br /><br />The Inquiry had 4 questions to answer (3 of which are already definitively answered):<br />1) did Nalcor use good judgment in recommending MF - the answer demonstrated by the evidence is no<br />2) why did costs escalate - this is being determined now, but looks like poor practice, incompetence and a general application of poor practices<br />3) was the government knowledgeable of the risks associated with MF - the answer demonstrated by the evidence is no<br />4) what was the effect of excluding the PUB - this is a bit tricky, but considering what the PUB has previously issued and a statement by CH there seems to be little doubt that it was poor governance.<br /><br />Maybe best to move past manusha type points - I suspect the final report (while rushed because the public demanded that at an inopportune time) wont be kind to MF instigators.<br /><br />PENG2Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-74644344732090017122019-05-14T13:32:50.602-02:302019-05-14T13:32:50.602-02:30It's looking more and more like we are getting...It's looking more and more like we are getting set up to accept the outcome. The residents of NL were not raped---we were gang raped by a bunch of sleeveens who are going to be allowed to get away with it. Surely there is someone with balls enough to do what is crying out to be done.The outright lies and withholding of information with unfettered access to the public treasury surely must give reason for a criminal investigation. Start with DW and work the way down. Find out the names behind the numbered companies is an obvious place to start.<br />To think that DW, KD, EM, GB, PH et al are chuckling about how this is going, makes my stomach churn.Waynenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-24303430362404754552019-05-14T12:42:47.249-02:302019-05-14T12:42:47.249-02:30Never certain of anything Bruno, from my simple pe...Never certain of anything Bruno, from my simple perch. But when I said, let others pick it up if they desire, then I mean by the contractors, subs etc. where they felt they were wronged or did not get paid etc. That is exactly what Astaldi is doing in court now having taken nalcor to court for kicking them off the site without just cause, and employees not being paid etc. So the courts will decide that along with other parties who choose to do so. Now as for other smaller contractors or companies that had their fingers in the pie that may get away with some money they were not entitled to, but suspect that will be in the hundreds of thousands rather than in the millions. Like I don't think JK was an employee of nalcor but contracted his company to do work for nalcor, and was a pretty big wheel in the overall scheme of things. Could guys like that wheeling so much power not half fill their pockets where millions were being thrown around with man hours of work etc.? It is possible if they so desired, but will not be easy to chase down unless some one in cahoots with them blows the roast. And that kind of money will not break or make a 12$ billion project, but can easily fill a couple guys pockets. Or that's my take on it, with no knowledge or inside scoop. We all know about EM's take, dismissal, resignation with or without cause, etc. but that was in a way legal if not ethical. But I am not dismissing the boondoggle as much to do about nothing, as it may bankrupt a province or become insolvent down the road, and that is the real travecy of politicisns and little idiots that want to serve them. Joe blow.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-88300941820548352612019-05-14T12:39:47.714-02:302019-05-14T12:39:47.714-02:30Just as EY was used by government to give credibil...Just as EY was used by government to give credibility to the MF Project, and was then prevented from accessing information from Nalcor, so too is the inquiry prevented by the TOR from diving deep into the core, underlying ego/legacy and financially driven, party associated agenda that pushed Muskrat Falls through --- NO MATTER WHAT.<br /> <br />The Liberal government took over the MF agenda, lock, stock and barrel, and did nothing more that change horses (from Martin to Marshall).<br /><br />The inquiry TOR was designed to help shine light everywhere except at the core, underlying rot ---- and especially away from the premier's office/cabinet and senior public servants.<br /><br />The more things change.....<br /><br /> Maurice Adamsnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-42057873529141541172019-05-14T11:50:32.663-02:302019-05-14T11:50:32.663-02:30Leblanc is identifying and describing the symptoms...Leblanc is identifying and describing the symptoms/outcomes, not the underlying cause (and the terms of reference is designed that way). <br /><br />When the car is spitting out blue smoke, one does not waste the time and money checking the plugs, kicking the tires, changing the air filter, checking the door locks, and radiator/windshield washer fluid, etc., etc., etc,...........<br /><br />However, that is where the bulk of the inquiry is, and the terms of reference was designed by government (public servants and politicians) so that the commissioner, counsel and parties could only look at, investigate and check the the plugs, the tires, the air filter, the door locks, radiator/windshield washer fluid, etc., etc., etc,............<br /><br />Maurice Adamsnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-56739038526388551732019-05-14T11:49:58.620-02:302019-05-14T11:49:58.620-02:30" I never expected any real fraud as SNC did ..." I never expected any real fraud as SNC did in Libya, with millions being handed over to get the contract, or even the shannigians that went on in Montreal." Are you certain of this Joe or are you just happy that the issue, inexplicably, has never been explored at MF?<br /><br /> Bruno Marcocchiohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08076165212559914463noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-66244703868554976232019-05-14T11:41:36.906-02:302019-05-14T11:41:36.906-02:30When I see how pathetic the cross examination I am...When I see how pathetic the cross examination I am struck by how by the design of the "inquiry", the intervenors are so underfunded and participation by knowledgeable insiders like you Maurice are not welcomed. <br /><br />We know the foundational design and mechanisms point back to the megalomaniacal urges of a past Premier. The mechanism, Nalcor's unhindered savaging of the treasury, continues unhindered, to this day.<br /><br />You are correct Maurice that the symptoms only are being explored, BY DESIGN.Bruno Marcocchiohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08076165212559914463noreply@blogger.com