tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-52351384150130463812024-03-05T01:31:59.310-03:30UNCLE GNARLEYOpinions On Newfoundland Politics That BiteDes Sullivanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02566013585647491614noreply@blogger.comBlogger893125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-51583750655288720712022-04-25T07:26:00.001-02:302022-04-25T07:26:35.035-02:30NEED FOR POLLUTION CONTROLS AT HOLYROOD A CASE OF FRAUDULENT MISREPRESENTATION<p> <span style="font-size: large;">Guest Post by PlanetNL</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">PlanetNL44: Holyrood Air Pollutants Surprisingly
Low<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Need for Pollution Abatement Equipment Was Another
Muskrat Fraud<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;">As Uncle Gnarley properly pointed
out in his post last week, the vilification of the Holyrood Thermal Generating
Station was a central tactic of Nalcor and Government’s communications strategy
for proceeding with the Muskrat Falls project.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;">
</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;">Tremendous tales of woe were repeated ad nauseum about the risks of
using the Holyrood plant by the shameless promoters of Muskrat.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">They were all untrue.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">This post sums them all up with
particular emphasis on the topic of pollutant emissions, a problem that had ceased to exist.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Not that Government or
Nalcor could ever let something as simple as the facts stand in their way of
building Muskrat.<span></span></span></p><a name='more'></a><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;"><o:p></o:p></span><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><b><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">The Holyrood Fact Sheet Was
Completely Made Up <o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">Most of the claims made against
the Holyrood thermal plant in the period leading up to Muskrat Falls sanction
in December 2012, and indeed often repeated in the years that have followed,
fall into four main categories.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">There was a load forecast filled
with unending growth: projections meant to show that Holyrood would be unable
to supply the demand within a few short years.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>That has proven totally false.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Load trended slightly upward in the decade of the 2010s but has since
fallen back to the levels of the decade prior. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Official load forecasts were notably reduced a
few years ago. Realistically, there is
no reasonable basis to forecast any resurgence in growth, just more gradual
decline.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">There was also a projection of oil
prices endlessly escalating.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This would lead
to unaffordable rate increases if we continued to depend on Holyrood.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This has prove untrue.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The oil-fired share of electricity rates certainly
fluctuates but it has been quite stable overall.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Ironically, ratepayers are certain to suffer
major rate increases to pay for Muskrat, the supposed antidote to the oil price
threat.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">Claims were also made that the Holyrood
plant was worn out and unreliable.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The
latest consultant report on Holyrood plant life extension proves that to have
been false.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The plant has plenty of
useful life remaining and requires only ordinary upkeep.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The truth is that Nalcor (Hydro) was
negligent in their management of Holyrood along with virtually all Hydro assets.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This was effectively proven in the
utility-wide review performed by Liberty Consulting following DarkNL.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Those problems are now largely corrected, and
utility reliability statistics have improved substantially.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">The final talking point heard
many times was that Holyrood would need $600-800 Million in pollution control
equipment installed to meet regulatory compliance requirements. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Even to the most jaded sceptics, this one
sounded so plausible it was hardly scrutinized.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Has it too proven false?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Evidence
has been uncovered to conclusively determine that this was also completely
unfounded.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhRLHOhRuiNrlwvIg8utkG57Jraoa8d3-xtJFjg8oiZJwhHIidFGCtkhR2yDhieXPRNejrydgENGgUGVZ46AnyPuZP7Ydf4P0vtd4Ljh0o_v_myumvWOp-tRV0UcjHhB3AyShpIhY0N8jT2ykHCD6NsEYWg7KhDVn3SQOzdq99CmHwFxVMWHmzNUbuT/s500/Tom%20Hedderson1.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="500" data-original-width="400" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhRLHOhRuiNrlwvIg8utkG57Jraoa8d3-xtJFjg8oiZJwhHIidFGCtkhR2yDhieXPRNejrydgENGgUGVZ46AnyPuZP7Ydf4P0vtd4Ljh0o_v_myumvWOp-tRV0UcjHhB3AyShpIhY0N8jT2ykHCD6NsEYWg7KhDVn3SQOzdq99CmHwFxVMWHmzNUbuT/w512-h640/Tom%20Hedderson1.jpg" width="512" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Environment Minister Tom Hedderon, 2012</td></tr></tbody></table><br /><span face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="font-size: 14.4px;">Holyrood's "closure will also complement our Climate Change Action Plan and be the equivalent of taking 300,000 cars off the road”, claimed a statement issued jointly by the <span style="color: red;"><a href="https://www.releases.gov.nl.ca/releases/2012/nr/1116n07.htm">Departments of Natural Resources and Environment in November 2012.</a> </span></span><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><b><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">Annual Air Monitoring Reports<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">While researching emissions data
for another purpose, several Ambient Air Monitoring Reports were found on the
Province’s website. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>These reports
include year-round analysis at several sites around the province including St.
John’s, Mount Pearl, Corner Brook, Labrador City, Holyrood and in the general
area of the North Atlantic Refinery.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Most
of the locations are within the proximity of major industrial sites known to
have significant pollution risks.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">The key pollutants measured are
Sulphur Dioxide (SO<sub>2</sub>), Particulate Matter (PM<sub>2.5 </sub>and PM<sub>10</sub>),
Nitrogen Oxides (NO<sub>x</sub>), Ozone, and Carbon Monoxide.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Carbon Dioxide and other greenhouse gases are
not discussed.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">The reports present actual measurements
of pollutant concentration relative to the <i>“maximum concentrations of air
pollutants considered to be protective of the environment”</i> as defined in
the Province’s Air Pollution Control Regulations, 2004. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The report notes that local readings can be
impacted by emissions from such sources as vehicular traffic, forest fires, and
woodstoves.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>No area is pollutant free.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">The report does not provide
commentary on the levels of pollution measured.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>If that formal contextual analysis exists, it is likely being kept out
of the public’s reach.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgvNnroJLklbDp0ApGDskOnidTygOvOwZf6fNamXq05CZFuMG68D3m9Wo3U8uVJ9v7s0TfDKjAiJY7ypI8YDucqI-F6OFOM0J8X728FbjGs34cVXUt-yFJM8IYEmzNACENDisQ2CMBW2GXH-RvDlr0tH8Zsyc3hww8oxzr6taq7F_EyJ16TuhHgRvDr/s1036/PNL6.png" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="706" data-original-width="1036" height="218" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgvNnroJLklbDp0ApGDskOnidTygOvOwZf6fNamXq05CZFuMG68D3m9Wo3U8uVJ9v7s0TfDKjAiJY7ypI8YDucqI-F6OFOM0J8X728FbjGs34cVXUt-yFJM8IYEmzNACENDisQ2CMBW2GXH-RvDlr0tH8Zsyc3hww8oxzr6taq7F_EyJ16TuhHgRvDr/s320/PNL6.png" width="320" /></a></div><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;">Left Photo: Typical Air Monitoring Station (source: GNL report)</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">
</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">There are six air monitoring
stations situated in Holyrood.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Most
were installed in the 1990s to perform data collection required for the Certificate of Approval issued by the Department of Environment.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Only reports from 2008 onward appear to be publicly
available.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Nalcor (Hydro) and Government
certainly would have had earlier reports and analysis in their possession. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgOT4bBj8eZOO4v_ajO1bWW9ySF_FgqX50R-Q1brshAr_GmOFq9PWX3eGKB5ff8gLvpvL5yez9C2iclElq8K5rx7LnN6Y65n4bPzgfIq7kWzsm_0ydcGpcu4gkjgZvrU7xWMy9sOD25_t-tAb5vLhTKBLdMUpZQQT3oBXT90A0h5X8Sf7UV8_2S4IHo/s1071/PNL7.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="630" data-original-width="1071" height="376" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgOT4bBj8eZOO4v_ajO1bWW9ySF_FgqX50R-Q1brshAr_GmOFq9PWX3eGKB5ff8gLvpvL5yez9C2iclElq8K5rx7LnN6Y65n4bPzgfIq7kWzsm_0ydcGpcu4gkjgZvrU7xWMy9sOD25_t-tAb5vLhTKBLdMUpZQQT3oBXT90A0h5X8Sf7UV8_2S4IHo/w640-h376/PNL7.png" width="640" /></a></div><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">Map of Air Monitoring Station
Locations in Holyrood (Source – GNL report)<o:p></o:p></span></p><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><b><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">What Government and Nalcor Truly
Knew<o:p></o:p></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">The oldest available Ambient Air
Monitoring Reports, for the 4-year period of 2008-2011, are especially
relevant. During this time, the Muskrat
Falls project was being promoted and Government and Nalcor officials were
routinely criticizing their perceived liabilities of the Holyrood plant.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">It was easy to expect the worst
to be found in these reports, particularly during the winter operating season
when the plant was frequently run to full power and maximum fuel burn. Would there be a high number of exceedances
when measured levels were higher than what the regulations allowed?<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">Nothing of the sort was found.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">The report data shows that
pollutants from the plant were routinely a tiny fraction of that allowed within
the regulations. For example, SO<sub>2</sub>,
arguably the most harmful environmental emission that causes acid rain, was
rarely above 1/10<sup>th</sup> the levels defined in the regulations. NOx was rarely above 1/8 the limits. There were just a few rare occurrences in
which PM<sub>2.5 </sub>exceeded the regulatory maximum, but it was comfortably
below that level nearly all the time.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">From a layman’s perspective the
results are surprisingly very good. The
Holyrood site even fared better than the other industrial sites examined. Measurements nearest to North Atlantic Refining
and the Iron Ore Company in Labrador City showed tremendous exceedance of
maximum pollution levels in multiple categories although the levels detected in
the towns appear generally satisfactory.
Corner Brook also had more exceedances presumably from the pulp and
paper mill.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">Even the levels in some other
towns not directly adjacent to major industrial emitters are not squeaky clean. The levels measured at Holyrood can only be
interpreted as a pleasant surprise. A
relief even. Because those with long
memories know it probably was not always the case.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><b><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">Holyrood Pollution Problems Were Addressed
in 2006<o:p></o:p></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">Records found on the PUB website
from 2006 reveal some important history on Holyrood’s pollutant emissions. From those, we can find that Hydro was in
violation of at least the SO<sub>2</sub> emissions criteria when the new Air
Pollution Control Regulations, 2004 came into effect.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">Hydro advised the PUB they had reduced
the sulphur in its Heavy Fuel Oil (HFO) purchases for Holyrood from 2.2% to
2.0% maximum in 2004. Clearly this
action was as insufficient as you may think.
In September 2006, the Department of Environment was compelled to order
Hydro to use fuel with a sulphur content not exceeding 1%. Hydro indicated the expected price premium
for the lower sulphur fuel was $3 per barrel.
<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">Hydro was clearly advised of two
important things within a consultant report appended to one of the 2006 PUB hearing
documents. First was a costing
comparison showing that using 1% maximum sulphur fuel was less costly than
installing pollution control equipment.
Second was that both SO<sub>2</sub> and particulate matter emissions decrease
further with even lower sulphur content in the fuel. To that end, the report identified many other
North American HFO-fired thermal plants at the time, many of which used fuels
with sulphur content as low as 0.1-0.3% to achieve even lower pollutant output. This simple tactic was well understood in the
industry.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">Sure enough, with the switch to
1% sulphur fuel in early 2006, emissions of SO<sub>2</sub> began to drop
dramatically as shown in the chart below found in a Nalcor 2016 environmental
performance report. By 2007 (2006 was a
transition year in which some remaining 2% fuel was burned) the intensity
factor (white line) had dropped by a little better than 50% which correlates
exactly to the reduction of sulphur in the fuel. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">
</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">The continuing decline in
emission intensity in the next few years suggests that Nalcor steadily sought
to purchase even lower sulphur fuels by 2010.
The lower emission intensity from 2010 onward likely results only from
the use of 0.7% maximum sulphur fuel. </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjhd4FGnktnyFpI4-yLZGsypMz7mQ6CtY4wy70oirOgs36eM7sPERbCPikYAmg_urFe-2_lqFFywiV432LPv3_66tmvKS-ithCZWy6f7hXsrKNCpZkHoXKCHyG_FGZEgPyXuB2oetq_-vPPwi_zzQYXJDSrVdcSI2RfiDIu5zMdtagoNAxTCsH37qIg/s1026/PNL8.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="660" data-original-width="1026" height="412" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjhd4FGnktnyFpI4-yLZGsypMz7mQ6CtY4wy70oirOgs36eM7sPERbCPikYAmg_urFe-2_lqFFywiV432LPv3_66tmvKS-ithCZWy6f7hXsrKNCpZkHoXKCHyG_FGZEgPyXuB2oetq_-vPPwi_zzQYXJDSrVdcSI2RfiDIu5zMdtagoNAxTCsH37qIg/w640-h412/PNL8.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgERnYWMY8BaMeFj8ZucxLAs-UaW-5ycF9rlsHhl_ZIGFsiyX2R4884qFYKMN0N510pJKb6NCUFqhbswVex-x2rY4-pPxcYtviA1VUXqDtIPK5z-xzfMwXVzylqwnzV5vsdPzxG4ztcjn1MY4K75U_l37tKHca-swYiKRkkFMbapDlsgOwXd72B3yaH/s1012/PNL9.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="97" data-original-width="1012" height="62" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgERnYWMY8BaMeFj8ZucxLAs-UaW-5ycF9rlsHhl_ZIGFsiyX2R4884qFYKMN0N510pJKb6NCUFqhbswVex-x2rY4-pPxcYtviA1VUXqDtIPK5z-xzfMwXVzylqwnzV5vsdPzxG4ztcjn1MY4K75U_l37tKHca-swYiKRkkFMbapDlsgOwXd72B3yaH/w640-h62/PNL9.png" width="640" /></a></div><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;">Holyrood SO</span><sub style="font-family: Georgia, serif;">2</sub><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> Emissions
2002-2016 (Source: Nalcor 2016 Environmental Performance Report)</span><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">Hydro clearly understood that
using moderately low-sulphur HFO was key to reducing Holyrood pollution
emissions and bringing it well into regulatory compliance. By 2006, they also certainly understood the
range of even lower sulphur fuel options that were available to potentially
meet any possible tightening up of regulatory compliance thresholds in the
future.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">Despite the large step-change in
SO<sub>2</sub> reductions achieved commencing in 2006, Government
communications as late as November 2012 chose this phrasing: <i>“From 2000 to
2010, the Holyrood plant emitted … an annual average of 11,610 tonnes of
sulphur dioxide.” </i>Looking at the
chart above we know with the permanent change to lower sulphur fuel, the
pre-2006 data had become totally irrelevant.
The true average SO<sub>2</sub> emissions were about 4000 tonnes but
Government wanted to communicate a scarier number. For a laugh and a cry read the entire propaganda-filled
news release, linked in the References below.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;">Related:</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"><a href="https://unclegnarley.blogspot.com/2022/04/power-plant-centerpiece-of-corrupt.html"><span style="color: red;">Power Plant a Centerpiece of Corrupt Governance</span></a> by Des Sullivan</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"><span style="color: red;"><a href="https://unclegnarley.blogspot.com/2022/04/dispelling-lies-and-half-truths-about.html"><span style="color: red;">Dispelling Lies and Half-Truths about Holyrood powerand raising </span></a></span></span><span style="color: red; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"><a href="https://unclegnarley.blogspot.com/2022/04/dispelling-lies-and-half-truths-about.html"><span style="color: red;">questions about next black-out</span></a> </span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;">by PlanetNL</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><b><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">Nalcor and Government Committed
Fraudulent Misrepresentation<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">There is ample evidence that pollution
emissions from the Holyrood plant were very adequately resolved by using lower
sulphur content fuel in 2006. In all the
years subsequent leading up to Muskrat sanction, the plant was well within
regulatory compliance requirements.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">Nalcor (Hydro) and Government possessed
an extensive set of air quality data allowing them to fully understand the
situation. They also had consultant
advice to adopt low-sulphur fuels rather than install pollution control
systems. Despite that, they chose to cover
up the facts and present the story of highest possible costs. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">Nalcor at the time asserted that
they expected pollution regulations to become more stringent. Holding this out gave an air of inevitability
to the issue. Yet, as of 2022, the 2004
regulations have yet to be amended, therefore any sense of imminent regulatory
change has proven that worry was unwarranted.
<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">It’s fair to ask whether any
regulatory tightening could have become so stringent as to cause a clear
pollution violation. To examine that, let’s
consider the much tighter air standards of the European Commission that allow SO<sub>2</sub>
and NO<sub>x</sub> concentrations of half or less compared to NL regulations
(PM levels are no different). A cursory
review suggests that even if the Province were to adopt EC standards,
Holyrood’s level of performance would likely still pass. If lower emissions were to prove necessary,
then we know slightly lower sulphur fuel is an available option to resolve the
issue. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">However, consider that if
Holyrood had problems meeting tighter pollution limits, the air quality reports
suggest that all other heavy industries in the province would be in worse
trouble. It’s highly improbable that the
Province would impose new regulations that could be so economically damaging.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">Finally, consider that the latest
consultant report about Holyrood life extension gave no consideration to
installing any new pollution control systems while continuing to use the same grade
of Heavy Fuel Oil. This conspicuous
absence in this report would seem to indicate that Hydro has relented to the
reality that such equipment is not a necessity.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">We must conclude that all claims
by Nalcor and Government that pollution control equipment had to be installed
at Holyrood was a deliberate case of fraudulent misrepresentation. The need for it was not true then, remains
untrue today, and is very unlikely to be true in the foreseeable future.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><b><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">Sources and References:<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">NL Dept of Environment and Dept of Natural Resources News
Release - Significant Environmental Benefits to be Achieved with Closing
Holyrood Thermal Generating Station - <a href="https://www.releases.gov.nl.ca/releases/2012/nr/1116n07.htm">Significant
Environmental Benefits to be Achieved with Closing Holyrood Thermal Generating
Station (gov.nl.ca)</a><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">NL Dept of Environment Air Monitoring Reports webpage - <a href="https://www.gov.nl.ca/ecc/publications/env-protection/">Publications -
Environmental Protection - Environment and Climate Change (gov.nl.ca)</a><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">2006 PUB Hearing for 1% Sulphur Fuel Cost Recovery - <a href="http://www.pub.nl.ca/ARCHIVE/hydro2006sulphur/index.htm">PUB: NLH 1 %
Sulphur Fuel Cost Recovery</a><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Nalcor 2016 Environmental Performance Report (PDF) - <a href="https://nlhydro.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/09-17-EPR-FINAL-web.pdf">09-17-EPR-FINAL-web.pdf
(nlhydro.com)</a><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">European Commission Air Quality Standards webpage - <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/environment/air/quality/standards.htm">Standards -
Air Quality - Environment - European Commission (europa.eu)</a><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;"> <o:p></o:p></span></p>Des Sullivanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02566013585647491614noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-66026977300715805262022-04-21T07:18:00.001-02:302022-04-21T08:17:14.405-02:30POWER PLANT A CENTERPIECE OF CORRUPT GOVERNANCE<p style="line-height: 18.0pt;"><span style="background: white; font-family: Georgia, serif;">“The Provincial Government, through NLH (Hydro),
has investigated the long-term options to address Holyrood emissions and
decided to replace Holyrood generation with electricity from the Lower
Churchill through a transmission link to the Island”.</span><o:p></o:p></p><p style="background: white; line-height: 18pt; margin-bottom: 0in; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 12.0pt; margin: 12pt 0in 0in;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif;">Thus ran the 2007 energy plan
of the Danny Williams Administration.</span><o:p></o:p></p><p style="background: white; line-height: 18pt; margin-bottom: 0in; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 12.0pt; margin: 12pt 0in 0in;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif;">The die was cast for energy
policy in NL. It meant Gull Island, Muskrat Falls or bust!</span><o:p></o:p></p><p style="line-height: 150%;">
<o:p>
<o:p>
<o:p>
</o:p></o:p></o:p></p><p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: white; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; line-height: 18.0pt; margin-bottom: 0in; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 12.0pt; orphans: 2; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Georgia",serif;">In that pursuit for more than a
decade, deception, half-truths, outright lies and delusion all played a role in
the sanction and construction of Muskrat Falls. Integral to the decision, was
the disparagement of the Holyrood Thermal Generating Station (HTGS).</span><span style="color: black;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><a name='more'></a><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif;"><o:p></o:p></span><p></p><p style="background: white; line-height: 18pt; margin-bottom: 0in; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 12.0pt; margin: 12pt 0cm 0cm;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif;">Maligned as the industry
equivalent of a ‘dirty bag of bolts’, it recently achieved the human status of
Lazarus, raised from the dead. The conclusion of Hatch Consultants and NL
Hydro’s <a href="http://www.pub.nl.ca/applications/NLH2018ReliabilityAdequacy/reports/From%20NLH%20-%20Assessment%20to%20Determine%20the%20Potential%20Long-Term%20Viability%20of%20the%20Holyrood%20Thermal%20Generating%20Station%20-%202022-03-31.PDF"><span style="color: red;">"Condition
and Life Extension Study"</span></a> is this: “the Holyrood TGS is generally
in good operating condition.” Hatch informs: “…there are also some power plants
in North America with units which are still in service, primarily on a standby
intermittent operation basis, after close to 70 years in service.” Who knew!<o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="background: white; line-height: 18pt; margin-bottom: 0in; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 12.0pt; margin: 12pt 0cm 0cm;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif;">It is hard to think of another
example that so forcefully reminds us that an alert, informed, and objective
public is the only safeguard against short-sighted, costly, self-aggrandizing,
and politically inspired public policy.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="background: white; line-height: 18pt; margin-bottom: 0in; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 12.0pt; margin: 12pt 0cm 0cm;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif;">Hatch, of course, was not
expected to recount Nalcor’s false narrative; nor would a consultant in the pay of Nalcor be expected to remind them of their deception over the
power plant. Yet, NL has well over $13 billion sunk into the Muskrat Falls
fiasco and nothing to show for the financial misery it represents.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="background: white; line-height: 18pt; margin-bottom: 0in; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 12.0pt; margin: 12pt 0cm 0cm;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif;">So far, the public has been
spared the worse effects of the fallout. Like the public debt, ruinous
decisions are deemed inconsequential; rather than resolved, the pain is deferred.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="background: white; line-height: 18pt; margin-bottom: 0in; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 12.0pt; margin: 12pt 0cm 0cm;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif;">The fear is that the deferral
gives bad public policy decisions a degree of impunity; the leadership is not
held to account in a timely fashion.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p>
</p><p style="background: white; line-height: 18pt; margin-bottom: 0in; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 12.0pt; margin: 12pt 0cm 0cm;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif;">While that is a subject for
another blog post, it is worth thinking about the extreme level of deceit to
which the NL public was subjected and for which, from a public policy
perspective, no change has occurred. <o:p></o:p></span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif;">Politics, assisted by legacy driven politicians, compliant consultants and weak public servants, has the capacity to put ‘lipstick on a pig’ (Muskrat Falls) or malign the imperfect and less gratifying (Holyrood TGS), as the case may be.</span></p><p style="background: white; line-height: 24px; margin-bottom: 0in; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 12.0pt; margin: 12pt 0in 0in;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Georgia",serif; mso-bidi-font-family: ITCFranklinGothicStd-Book; mso-color-alt: windowtext;">In the case of the latter, this was done by ‘talking up’ the “aging” – meaning unreliable and needing replacement - thermal (“dirty”) peaking plant. Cited as the 42<sup>nd</sup> worst polluter in Canada because it used a low-grade bunker “C” oil, the problem was substantially remedied when NL Hydro saw fit. How? It simply used a higher-grade oil!</span><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; mso-bidi-font-family: ITCFranklinGothicStd-Book;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="background: white; line-height: 24px; margin-bottom: 0in; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 12.0pt; margin: 12pt 0in 0in;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Georgia",serif; mso-bidi-font-family: ITCFranklinGothicStd-Book; mso-color-alt: windowtext;"><span style="color: #2c2c2c;">Nalcor was fond of exaggerating the Plant’s GHG emissions, frequently reporting how much “Bunker “C” fuel it used in full operating mode, though few people understood that this occurred for 2-3 days or less each winter, some years not at all.</span></span></p><p style="background: white; line-height: 24px; margin-bottom: 0in; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 12.0pt; margin: 12pt 0in 0in;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Georgia",serif; mso-bidi-font-family: ITCFranklinGothicStd-Book; mso-color-alt: windowtext;"><span style="color: #2c2c2c;">___________________________________</span></span></p><p style="background: white; line-height: 24px; margin-bottom: 0in; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 12.0pt; margin: 12pt 0in 0in;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; mso-bidi-font-family: ITCFranklinGothicStd-Book; mso-color-alt: windowtext;"><a href="https://unclegnarley.blogspot.com/2022/04/dispelling-lies-and-half-truths-about.html"><span style="color: red;">Dispelling Lies and Half-Truths about Holyrood Power and Raising Questions about the next Black-Out</span></a> by PlanetNL<br /></span></p><p style="background: white; line-height: 24px; margin-bottom: 0in; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 12.0pt; margin: 12pt 0in 0in;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Georgia",serif; mso-bidi-font-family: ITCFranklinGothicStd-Book; mso-color-alt: windowtext;">____________________________________</span></p><p style="background: white; line-height: 24px; margin-bottom: 0in; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 12.0pt; margin: 12pt 0in 0in;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Georgia",serif; mso-bidi-font-family: ITCFranklinGothicStd-Book; mso-color-alt: windowtext;">Fuel substitution also eliminated the need for expensive “scrubbers and precipitators”, though a perceived concern for the environment manifested even as Nalcor openly dismissed using conservation and demand management (CDM) strategies to resolve the Island’s winter peaking problem that gave rise to the Plant's construction. </span></p><p style="background: white; line-height: 24px; margin-bottom: 0in; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 12.0pt; margin: 12pt 0in 0in;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Georgia",serif; mso-bidi-font-family: ITCFranklinGothicStd-Book; mso-color-alt: windowtext;">Scaling up the deception, Nalcor added the capital cost estimate of </span><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #2c2c2c; font-family: "Georgia",serif;">$602 million for the pollution control equipment plus “resulting energy losses of three to five percent” to boost the difference in the “Cumulative Present Worth” used to give advantage to the “Interconnected” option – Muskrat Falls - over the "Isolated Island" option.</span></p><p style="background: white; line-height: 24px; margin-bottom: 0in; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 12.0pt; margin: 12pt 0in 0in;"><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #2c2c2c; font-family: "Georgia",serif;">The quest for legacy not only inspired the disparagement of the Holyrood plant, but it also killed the opportunity to outfit the facility with new kit - more efficient, low carbon emitting turbines using variable fuel types and a faster start-up time frame, where the time of operation could be offset with conservation programs and renewables, like wind and small-scale hydro projects.</span></p><p style="background: white; line-height: 24px; margin-bottom: 0in; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 12.0pt; margin: 12pt 0in 0in;"><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #2c2c2c; font-family: "Georgia",serif;"> Muskrat Falls was more politically grand; even the environmental zealots couldn’t see through the smog of deceit, as if good economics was incompatible with good public policy, including that related to the environment.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="background: white; line-height: 24px; margin-bottom: 0in; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 12.0pt; margin: 12pt 0in 0in;"><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #2c2c2c; font-family: "Georgia",serif;">Problem was, if people began to buy into less capital intensive and other environmentally friendly ideas, as Muskrat was perceived, the justification for the megaproject dissipated. Absent the main source of revenue (fuel savings) to pay the (understated) project cost estimate, Muskrat had no prospect of being developed. Therefore, Holyrood had to be demonized as an “aging, polluting and unreliable” Plant, an easy image for an uninformed public to buy into.</span></p><p style="background: white; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0in; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 12.0pt; margin: 12pt 0in 0in;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg0IpxoFsBjf-hoeR2KfMS3PO6Jc4Ux_yiTF49-i71GfkOtlY918vIOmvk8kB17GfCoQ7Fz9mTPveJ0KfAPY5k5WIvaG4DnlxHhHD1NZCCgPWs7ZBcy6Erssk3cFl1lu20ZW8kFnQth2CLyZ1jhDtOfUjPOBUtWYJERh62kHTZ9AcjEkJNG7uvJ_3Z5/s800/Holyrood-Power-Plant.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="400" data-original-width="800" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg0IpxoFsBjf-hoeR2KfMS3PO6Jc4Ux_yiTF49-i71GfkOtlY918vIOmvk8kB17GfCoQ7Fz9mTPveJ0KfAPY5k5WIvaG4DnlxHhHD1NZCCgPWs7ZBcy6Erssk3cFl1lu20ZW8kFnQth2CLyZ1jhDtOfUjPOBUtWYJERh62kHTZ9AcjEkJNG7uvJ_3Z5/w640-h320/Holyrood-Power-Plant.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif;"><p style="background: white; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0in; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 12.0pt; margin: 12pt 0in 0in;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif;"><br /></span></p><div><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif;"><p style="background: white; font-family: "Times New Roman"; line-height: 24px; margin-bottom: 0in; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 12.0pt; margin: 12pt 0in 0in;"><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #222222; font-family: "Georgia",serif;">The deceit imposed on Holyrood began early. Soon after the 2007 Energy Plan was announced, Nalcor began to physically downgrade the Holyrood Thermal Plant. It did this by deferring maintenance, and treating other thermal assets, like Hardwoods, with the same incompetence and neglect.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The result, as some may remember, was the week-long event in 2014 known as #DARKNL.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; line-height: 18pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">The PUB employed the </span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;">Liberty Consulting Group to assess the reason for the outages. This is what Liberty investigation turned up in 2014: failures in the “operation of key transmission equipment”, including a failure to replace transformers and maintain major circuit breakers. “Liberty found that Hydro’s shortage of generation capacity was exacerbated by a failure to complete planned outage work needed to ensure the availability of its full range of generating facilities as the winter season began.” </span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; line-height: 18pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;">Continued the Liberty Group, the situation “raises questions about Hydro’s operation” that it “did not complete recommended maintenance activities on the equipment that failed…”</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; line-height: 18pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;">The PUB later conducted a “prudence” review of their antics, and refused them the right to levy some of the deferred maintenance cost onto ratepayers.</span></p></span></div><div><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif;"><br /></span></div>Of course, the importance of the Holyrood Generating Station goes beyond its symbolism for a public made out to be fools. More than ever, it has a fundamental place in NL's energy paradigm.</span><p></p>
<p style="background: white; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0in; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 12.0pt; margin: 12pt 0in 0in;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Georgia",serif;">Faced with persistent uncertainty that the LIL will fully function
any time soon, it is worth reminding of the loss of the transmission line for a period of seven weeks
last winter and of the warnings of the Haldar Report that an extended blackout could
occur on average once every six years. Then there is the knowledge that the LIL was not
built to minimum Canadian utility standards. Still, Nalcor wanted to shut Holyrood down. </span></p><p style="background: white; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0in; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 12.0pt; margin: 12pt 0in 0in;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Georgia",serif;">What is left to understand, except for the that Hydro was administered by fools who were appointed and anointed by elected politicians? </span></p><p style="background: white; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0in; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 12.0pt; margin: 12pt 0in 0in;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Georgia",serif;">Unless, of course, you want to add the mere fact that "back-up" power is still a matter of debate in spite of those circumstances. You do have to wonder how this place can be so benignly indifferent to catastrophic risk. </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 18pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;">The Hatch Report brings us full circle. The PUB kept a watchful eye on Hydro since #DarkNL; Liberty audited every improvement that the PUB ordered. Likely as a direct result, “Hatch concluded that the Holyrood TGS is generally in good
operating condition....that the Holyrood TGS presents a
technically viable option in full generation mode or as a standby generating
resource under various recall scenarios in the near term and with the
significant investments estimated.” (pp.2 and 4)</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 18pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;">The "significant" investments
to which Hatch refers includes capital and operating costs to run the Holyrood
Plant on a </span><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">net annualized basis
of roughly $65M per year, the cost dependent </span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;">on how quickly residents of the Avalon Peninsula
want their light and heat to return after the LIL fails: 4 vs 24-30 hours.
(P.11) </span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;">
</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 18pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;">Hatch's acceptance of a 4 hour duration
for a blackout, let alone 24-30 hours, confirms that
NL Hydro still in the grip of those “offshore oil “engineers, the same ones advising Hatch. They
ought to have been replaced with “real” utility professionals of the kind that
CEO Ed Martin sent packing. The Liberty Consulting Group would not have trucked
with such nonsense.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgyNyKotIB5rt-8LTGxbYEQ25L__-EhbOH05KCdKQo8YF2SHd3PXId-1aSD1YmYWIL3D8qfRSZhVkWwddAKdD2L6QtB-PATwOIhM1UlRrBt2rwjIFrPIFbz_w5Wx6tOFGUtdj2gKciquHZqRL6NJQ7-4dNnpGHLPcunRiOW0Dw3mihdkZs7ML1B7IXy/s1298/Hatch%20Report.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="523" data-original-width="1298" height="258" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgyNyKotIB5rt-8LTGxbYEQ25L__-EhbOH05KCdKQo8YF2SHd3PXId-1aSD1YmYWIL3D8qfRSZhVkWwddAKdD2L6QtB-PATwOIhM1UlRrBt2rwjIFrPIFbz_w5Wx6tOFGUtdj2gKciquHZqRL6NJQ7-4dNnpGHLPcunRiOW0Dw3mihdkZs7ML1B7IXy/w640-h258/Hatch%20Report.png" width="640" /></a></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><br /></span></div></div><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 18pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">NL Hydro, like its embodiment Nalcor,
has been paying ‘footsie’ with the public and with the PUB on the issue of
"backup" power for Muskrat Falls for a long time. The Crown
Corporation has delayed reports, influenced the conclusions of consultants, and
helped write their scripts, in pursuit of either toning them down or making
sure that they conform to the requirements of their political agenda. </span><span style="color: black; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 18pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">Turnover in the executive ranks, and at
the political level, brings no change to either the agenda or to the values
that guide this Crown Corporation.</span><span style="color: black; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 18pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">The Government has even given impunity
to Vice-President Gilbert Bennett who has presided over the operations of Hydro
as well as the conception and execution of the Muskrat Falls project. </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 18pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">That CEO
Jennifer Wiiliams puts up with this arrangement is a worrisome commentary on
her leadership, especially when the public - and Hydro personnel - need
evidence that Hydro has returned to a singular electricity security and supply
mandate. </span><span style="color: black; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 18pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">Of course, the Premier and the Minister
of Energy are ultimately responsible. </span><span style="color: black; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 18pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">Deference aside, the viability of
Holyrood as a valuable and viable component in our energy supply and security
strategy has been re-established whether GNL wants to recognize the fact.</span><span style="color: black; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 18pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">If the PUB has any fangs, it will use
them and hold Hydro accountable; otherwise, the PUB, too, becomes a part of the
public policy failure that has set this province back decades.</span><span style="color: black; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="background: white; line-height: 24px; margin-bottom: 0in; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 12.0pt; margin: 12pt 0in 0in;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Georgia",serif;">There is one other inescapable fact that underlies the Hatch Report. </span></p><p style="background: white; line-height: 24px; margin-bottom: 0in; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 12.0pt; margin: 12pt 0in 0in;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Georgia",serif;">It is that that we didn’t need the Muskrat Falls project in the first place.</span></p><br /><p></p>Des Sullivanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02566013585647491614noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-22361173641899603122022-04-18T07:40:00.001-02:302022-04-18T07:40:20.172-02:30DISPELLING LIES AND HALF-TRUTHS ABOUT HOLYROOD POWER AND RAISING QUESTIONS ABOUT NEXT BLACK-OUT <p> <span style="font-size: large;">Guest Post by PlanetNL</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><b><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">PlanetNL43: Assessing the Holyrood
Life Extension Report <o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><b><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">Dispelling Lies and Half Truths<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;">On March 31, NL Hydro provided
the Public Utilities Board with a<a href="http://www.pub.nl.ca/applications/NLH2018ReliabilityAdequacy/reports/From%20NLH%20-%20Assessment%20to%20Determine%20the%20Potential%20Long-Term%20Viability%20of%20the%20Holyrood%20Thermal%20Generating%20Station%20-%202022-03-31.PDF"> <span style="color: red;">consultant report assessing the Holyrood plant </span></a>with a focus on continuing to use it for potentially decades more as a
backup facility in the event of a major loss of power to the Island grid.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;">The report considers just one of several
options being considered in a major Reliability Assessment hearing before the
PUB started in 2018 and seems as though it may never conclude.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">The new report provides a favorable review of the suitability of the plant, maintained as
a backup facility.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>To what should be no
one’s surprise, the plant is not in an awful and unreliable condition and way
past its prime.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It just needs what
should be considered ordinary upkeep for any industrial facility.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">What we don’t know, however, is
what exactly Hydro asked the consultant to study or if the report accurately
describes the way the Holyrood plant must be used to provide an
acceptable level of utility reliability. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It appears Hydro has guided their consultant to
the wrong scenario.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> <span></span></span></p><a name='more'></a><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><b><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">Proof of Fraud and Irresponsible
Planning<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">The consultant report is expert
evidence that we should wish was available prior to the conclusion of the
Inquiry into Muskrat Falls.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It would
have shown that the stories spread by unscrupulous politicians and Nalcor
executives around a decade ago were grossly exaggerated misrepresentations
regarding the plant’s condition and potential to be used in the future.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Those would be leaders got off much too
lightly for their abuse of the facts and this report could have more fully
exposed their fraudulent scheme.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">It’s now ironic to the extreme
that Hydro in 2022 finds itself seriously considering the life extension
strategy of Holyrood as the possible best solution to make up for the
unreliability of the Labrador Island Link (LIL) transmission line.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Don’t expect them to say those words anytime
soon but understand that this is exactly what is happening. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">Compare that to ten plus years
ago when the public was told that the LIL would ensure that power generation at
Holyrood would end forever.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We were told
the LIL was going to be a more reliable replacement. It simply wasn’t true, and
it has nothing to do with how the LIL has been plagued by seemingly unsolvable
problems and delays in its completion.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>The fact of the matter is, a decade ago just as now, no long-distance
transmission line can ever be considered adequately reliable.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">Outage events will happen on all
transmission lines or within terminal stations that can deprive major load
centres of electricity.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Every line,
based on its length and complexity can be estimated to have a probability of
failure.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>A line as long and complex as
the 1100km LIL, traversing several long stretches very isolated and
weather-prone terrain, a subsea crossing, complex AC to DC and DC to AC
converter stations, and other critical points of possible failure, always posed
significant risk of failure and always should have had local generation backup.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Nalcor/Hydro/Government lied.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg_VAb-0tZKfzfsOtpq3lpVEmXgnqjetgHp4QIg3w_6U-WUCuqKPXI6gUl0NLW90xb70fUY18d1bdgMpTmFKh8iw79QU1aM_uESPOTiGCeY2KPBIcOoFvg8n70VT-uVTYN6LU9VsQh7ZKwBM_wd_EZdHZgWHc1QaP7sLzsFihhKZWWNliZnZL0HmEYK/s1280/holyrood-station-2022.webp" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="960" data-original-width="1280" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg_VAb-0tZKfzfsOtpq3lpVEmXgnqjetgHp4QIg3w_6U-WUCuqKPXI6gUl0NLW90xb70fUY18d1bdgMpTmFKh8iw79QU1aM_uESPOTiGCeY2KPBIcOoFvg8n70VT-uVTYN6LU9VsQh7ZKwBM_wd_EZdHZgWHc1QaP7sLzsFihhKZWWNliZnZL0HmEYK/w640-h480/holyrood-station-2022.webp" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Holyrood Thermal Generating Station (Photo Credit: CBC)</td></tr></tbody></table><b><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">Will Hydro Finally Take the High
Road?</span></b><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">Taking away the Holyrood plant
and not budgeting to replace it with other backup generation on the Avalon
Peninsula was a major omission from reasonable utility planning strategy.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Hydro is now as quietly as possible
attempting to undo the lie and revive good utility practice without shining a spotlight
on its past behaviour. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">The key question today is whether
the current administration at Hydro is now fully committed to proper utility
practice or might still inflict unacceptable risk and compromise.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">A few years back, Stan Marshall
opened that darkened door when he stated that the public needs to ask itself
how much it wants to pay for reliability.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Saying such a thing was irresponsible in at least two key ways.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">First, the utility is supposed to
have standards to follow and have enough expertise to do the job.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They should not abdicate that responsibility
and ask the public to do the calculations for them.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Hydro in 2022 needs to be thorough and
forthcoming in presenting what is the acceptable standard of service and what
options meet those criteria.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">Second, was the public given all
the proper facts when a decision had to be made on Muskrat Falls and was the
public fully and properly invited to weigh in?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Those answers are no and no.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The
utility actively engaged to mislead and defraud the public.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Why should anyone believe the public is getting
the whole truth this time?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If their
repeated underplaying of the troubles with the LIL is any indication, Hydro has
yet to fully change its stripes. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">There is a third related issue
that cannot be as directly attributed to Stan Marshall as it happened just last
year.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Involved are Premier Andrew Furey,
ex-Hydro Chair Brendan Paddick who led Government’s rate mitigation team for
Furey, and the current Hydro administration who surely provided input on the long-term
utility strategy and cost projections.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The
issue is that all the publicly available utility operating cost estimates and
strategic documents available leading up to the conclusion of the July 2021 rate
mitigation scheme completely lack any allowance for long-term backup
generation. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>There was no Holyrood or a
suitable replacement in the post-Muskrat rate proposal presented to the public.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">Sadly, there is considerable room
for doubt that Hydro truly understands or is willing to fulfill its professional
responsibilities.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Alternatively, but no
more acceptable, we must wonder if Hydro continues to be ordered by Government
to conceal and lowball costs for devious political purposes.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The truth with this crowd is always unclear.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><b><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">The Holyrood Standby Option As
Described in the Report<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">There is no good news.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Just bad news and really bad news.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">The report described relatively
ordinary capital upkeep, relatively low fuel consumption, and other operating
costs seem reasonably reduced compared to historic costs.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The net annualized costs total roughly $65M
per year.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The bad news is it appears
this cost was not included in the Premier’s rate mitigation plan and presumably
it will be fully allocated to ratepayers as a future unforeseen rate increase
of at least 1.0 c/KWh.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">The really bad news is that the
concept throughout the report is for non-generating standby usage of the plant.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It will take at least four hours to bring the
plant from warm idle to full power on the grid after an unscheduled outage.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Four hours in a nasty winter weather event,
the most likely cause for needing the backup power let’s not forget, will seem
like an eternity for most customers.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It will
also result in cold homes and businesses demanding even more power than normal upon
reenergizing.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If there is not enough
standby power to meet that extra loading, rotating blackouts and intermittent
service will result.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">Four hour waits and possible rotating
outages would be a massive step backward from the current system which includes
Holyrood as a <u>full-time running</u> baseload generator.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Normally, Holyrood operates at considerably
less than its full 470 MW total power and therefore has reserve capacity that
can be exploited by increasing the fuel burn rate.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Small to medium scale outages can usually be
restored within minutes if not seconds.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">For additional capacity, the 123
MW combustion turbine at Holyrood and the 50MW unit at Hardwoods (this one is slated
to also be decommissioned upon completion of the LIL) can be started and at
full power in under than 30 minutes.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Without
getting into all the technicalities, utility standard thresholds for spinning
power reserve and non-spinning off-line backup are all in the 10–30-minute
range and the existing system operates within the standard.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The minimum four hour wait of the proposed Holyrood
standby concept comes nowhere near any acceptable utility standard.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If implemented, the first time such an outage
happens, public fury would be sure to rise.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><b><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">What the Report Lacked<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">There is a compromise middle
ground solution that would meet 10-30 reliability criteria.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Hydro could bring Holyrood onto the grid in
anticipation of high-load high-risk events so that it could quickly respond to
a possible transmission failure.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Expecting really cold weather or a high-risk storm?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Run the plant until the event has fully
passed by.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In addition, Holyrood would
also be brought onto the grid anytime the LIL is working at a reduced capacity.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">Seems simple and obvious
right?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Sure is.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In fact, it’s pretty much the operating
strategy Hydro has had for the past three years during which the LIL has
trickled some power onto the Island grid.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Despite the blinding obviousness of the situation, Hydro did not ask the
consultant to look at this scenario.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>More
than a year and an unspecified amount of money was spent on this very important
report and did not properly specify what the utility truly needed.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">When the PUB Reliability hearing
picks up pace in the coming months, Hydro will not have obtained the right
assessment for the operating conditions they need to employ.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The hearing will foreseeably evolve into
partial usage strategies, to which Hydro will offer their own unsubstantiated
opinion of how the plant will perform and what the costs will be.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Those costs will be higher for sure,
somewhere far closer to the current operating situation than to the impractical
warm idle concept employed in the consultant report.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">Based on the experience of the
last three winters, we may only reasonably count upon the LIL to operate some
of the time and at reduced transmission levels power levels. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In this scenario, Holyrood must run full-time
as baseload generation to ensure system reliability. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Being unable to fully shutdown the plant and
put it into standby results in very low savings opportunities.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In the past three winters, LIL power
deliveries have put only a minor dent in Holyrood production requirements.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The inability to take Holyrood generation
fully off-line has resulted in the majority of LIL energy being delivered to
Nova Scotia instead of being used on the Island.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">Costs in this scenario will be
way beyond that shown in the consultant report.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>For example, rather than reduce staffing from 101 to 58, all personnel will be required.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The expected rate
impact in this scenario is likely to be at least 2 c/KWh.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If the LIL ever consistently operates at full
design capacity, increased periods of proper off-line standby time interspersed
with operations during high-load high-risk events, the best-case rate impact
might be 1.5 c/KWh.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><b><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">Alternatives?<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">The 701- page consultant report provides
a mere one paragraph of less than 100 words on what might be an alternative: a
set of new diesel-fired combustion turbines.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Clearly it was not their mandate to explore any alternatives in detail. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The brief mention of it within the report is
effectively useless except to possibly confuse or mislead readers about its
validity.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">The question must be asked, is
there a thorough and detailed report in the works elsewhere describing a valid
operating strategy and annualized cost estimate for standby combustion turbines?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>As additional combustion turbines placed on
the Avalon Peninsula represent the only robust standby power solution that meets
utility reliability standards, it’s reasonable to expect a lengthy and detailed
concept report will be coming.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Yet,
having reviewed all documents related to the Reliability hearing on the PUB
website, no indication that such a report is in the works can be found.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">In lieu of any such commentary
from Hydro, you may wonder if combustion turbines would be a better solution and what the cost is, relative to running the Holyrood plant.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The answer to the first part is likely a big
yes.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The cost is likely no more and
possibly slightly less – 1.5 c/KWh is a reasonable basis to start with.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Any analysis should include a wide range of
scenarios based of varying degrees of performance of the LIL ranging from very
good to very bad.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The scenario of a
perfectly-performing LIL, as was the fundamental and sole assumption of the
consultant report into the Holyrood plant, is woefully inadequate. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">Let’s hope Hydro has more
in-depth reports yet to come and that future ones are more on target with
reality.<o:p></o:p></span></p>Des Sullivanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02566013585647491614noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-32543261684773637752022-04-11T07:49:00.003-02:302022-04-11T07:49:48.463-02:30BUDGET 2022-23: HOW DID MOYA GREENE GET IT SO WRONG?<p><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;">Finance Minister Siobhan Coady delivered the
2022-23 Provincial Budget last week, enshrouded in the kind of rhetoric that
suggests the Government is prudently managing our finances.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Let’s take a look at the <a href="https://www.gov.nl.ca/budget/2022/wp-content/uploads/sites/6/2022/04/Estimates-2022.pdf"><span style="color: red;">2022-23 Budget Estimates</span></a> to see
if what she is selling is in line with the reality that the PERT Report described only one year ago.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">PERT stated: “The Government of Newfoundland and
Labrador is facing an unsustainable fiscal situation that requires immediate
action. Spending is out of control and the Provincial Government is paying out
far more than its revenue allows…This untenable situation must be addressed.” The
Report also noted that “Cash deficits in the last five years have averaged $1.9
billion annually.” (P.10) <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">If, as Minister Coady suggests, she is close to
Budget balance, how did Moya Greene get her stark analysis so wrong?<span></span></span></p><a name='more'></a><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p></o:p></span><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">The 2022-23 Budget Estimates show revenue flat at $6.9
billion against current and capital expenditures of $8.1 billion on a cash
basis (against $8.3 billion last year) a modest decrease – but still enough
spending over revenue receipts to report a deficit, this year, of $1.25 billion
($1.4 billion last year).<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">“Current Account” expenditures are $7.84 billion
($7.49 billion last year), up $300 million, while “Capital Expenditures” are down
from $796M to $284M; the reduction of just over $500M due, in part, to a
reduction by $250 million in the capital requirement for Muskrat Falls. </span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;">(In truth, the Capital Account expenditure is misleading anyway, due to GNL’s portfolio of Public Private Partnerships (P3s)
where the capital expenditures are provided by private sector builders, but
let’s not complicate the narrative too much). </span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px;">The net result, nevertheless, is a decrease in the combined public expenditures of no more than $200 million.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Based on GNL’s accrual accounting methodology, it forecasts
a deficit of $351 million in the 2022-23 fiscal year. The real deficit, however – the amount for which GNL will ask the Legislature to approve borrowing, is
$1.249 billion. (See Current and Capital Accounts - Statement I of the
Estimates below.)<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">The Minister can delude herself, and the public, too,
if she pleases, but her claim of a $351 million deficit does not stand up to scrutiny. Public accounting methodology is one thing but it should not be used to obscure the fiscal situation facing the province.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;">GNL will need to raise a little over $3 billion in
the bond market this year; maturing debt and sinking fund requirements of
nearly $1.8 billion must be paid, in addition to the $1.25 billion deficit.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">These are the facts of the Estimates…unless the
Estimates are wrong.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj9FKS3naOSQFl3W5R30dDjQACPXOe7Rxg9U8iVY21RlpCcVGRbahiZdyuTutn9G9cR0d6Z84sEYcO4zKa2PA6RWfXPBcZBGpXjnm542vXjJ8d-TSejLzg3hKwHbLHAP9osq9PYtH1tNsSTx1DebjQXGQcHWFQ1Q6eSszQx5Ju5uHREKLCbIPexK1qE/s780/siobhan-coady-2-inquiry%20CBC.webp" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="439" data-original-width="780" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj9FKS3naOSQFl3W5R30dDjQACPXOe7Rxg9U8iVY21RlpCcVGRbahiZdyuTutn9G9cR0d6Z84sEYcO4zKa2PA6RWfXPBcZBGpXjnm542vXjJ8d-TSejLzg3hKwHbLHAP9osq9PYtH1tNsSTx1DebjQXGQcHWFQ1Q6eSszQx5Ju5uHREKLCbIPexK1qE/w640-h360/siobhan-coady-2-inquiry%20CBC.webp" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Finance Minister Siobhan Coady (Photo Credit: CBC)</td></tr></tbody></table><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span><p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;">The Province has been more lucky than many people realize. Revenues have held up especially well considering the confused state of the current global market; supply chain disruptions, the Ukraine war, related risks,
and inflation offer serious financial threats, especially for places poorly
governed, like ours.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">On a local level, too, the Come By Chance refinery
remains closed, the West White Rose project is still dormant, the Terra Nova
FPSO is in drydock and Hibernia has been less productive due to the COVID-19
pandemic. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Though offshore oil royalties
are down by $200 million, a plethora of tax revenues, the sales tax and mining
royalties in particular, have replaced this loss. The figures suggest a likely ceiling
has been established for what can be squeezed out of the economy right now.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Those risks expose enormous uncertainty in NL’s revenue stream. The
Minister projects deficit reduction out to 2026-27 and an $82 million surplus
in the final year; she may as well have doubled the figure given the paucity of evidence offered for how the surplus will occur.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">The Minister pretends that her deficit reduction
targets, which are in excess of those proposed in the PERT Report, are
achievable, though the Budget lacks all of the cost cutting measures that the Team proposed. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Besides, in misrepresenting the “real” deficit,
the Minister ignores the reality that interest on the new borrowing will rob
another $40-50 million next year and every year thereafter, which ought to be directed
to pay for public services. The Budget already reports a debt expense of $1 billion.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">There are other problems.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">The total Public Sector Debt is recorded in the Estimates
as $28.1 billion (see Appendix III to Budget Estimates below). Moya Greene’s PERT Report detailed the “Real Debt” and
stated: “In total, the province’s liabilities plus other obligations and
exposures stands at $44.5 billion as of March 31, 2020. Add borrowings to
cover the 2020-21 shortfall of $2.8 billion brings the number to $47.3
billion.” The PERT Team studiously accounted for and were rightly alarmed by
the massive debt burden. The 2021-22 and 2022-23 Budget deficits enlarge the figures.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">The Minister’s delusion, therefore, is not just
over a deficit of $1.249 billion which she reports as $351 million; she either
doesn’t understand, or deliberately misrepresents, the state of the public debt,
too.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">On a lesser level, the Minister ought to explain the
salary figure for staff in Executive Council, which is rising from $</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">50 million to $90 million. In contrast, an approximate net 5% increase is shown
for all other groups. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">In addition, Consolidated Fund Services
is carrying $47 million for severance, etc. vs only $0.5 million last year.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Is there a big layoff program coming about
which no one was told? </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; mso-color-alt: windowtext;">The Government’s misrepresentations extend to the
Muskrat Falls project – big surprise – the Minister claiming that they have
“fixed” it </span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #3c3c3c; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">financially “through the rate mitigation plan and the $5.2
billion partnership with the federal government.”</span><span style="color: #3c3c3c; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #3c3c3c; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">This assertion is delusional, too. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="color: #3c3c3c; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #3c3c3c; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">GNL has
been promised by the GoC a revenue stream arriving over a period of 38 years
from the Hibernia Dividend Backed Annuity Agreement, the future value of which
the Feds have estimated at $2.5 billion. On a present value basis, some
economists estimate its value as $1.3 billion. Quibble with the math if you
please, but the balance of the $5.2 billion package includes the immediate
deferral of up to $844 million; the other $2 billion represents loan guarantees. The NL public is on the hook and must repay every cent of those loans.</span><span style="color: #3c3c3c; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #3c3c3c; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">The
Government is selling this as a “fix” for rate mitigation?</span><span style="color: #3c3c3c; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #3c3c3c; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Better
that the Minister told the public the truth of the pain that awaits them.</span><span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Overall, GNL exhibits no capacity to reduce expenditures
and hides behind public sector accounting rules to feign progress. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">When the province ought to be implementing a
necessary reductions in health costs, GNL is in perennial crisis over basic
staffing. The report of Sister Elizabeth and Dr. Pat Parfrey – like the PERT
Report and the Report of the Muskrat Falls Inquiry – is DOA.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Of course, the most obvious point should also be
noted: if the Minister of Finance can’t balance the books when the economy is running fairly well inspite of known challenges, how will our gigantic debt ever be dented as a more typical economic circumstance is felt? </span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">On what basis
should workers feel secure or investors think their money safe if the
Government’s behavior brings us annually closer to a fiscal precipice? <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">In short, this third Budget of the Furey
Administration continues to build on our “House of Cards”.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">The Government will always have an excuse for why
it won’t face reality. Denial works best. Like calling a deficit of </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">$1.249
billion only $351 million.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Two questions: if the deficit is $351 million, why
do we have to borrow $1,249 billion?<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">If the PERT Report was so incompetently prepared, why
wasn’t Moya Greene and her Team called out and the work re-assigned? <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Unless, it was just a case of Greene not telling politicians
what they wanted to hear.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;">---------------------------------------</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhZ5n5QYxqWL15OoIdq7Kbf4_W2ZDiICguwfGJzZv7Cl5CTiyQS2TTTWLjKcNV48BgueTlavQ0lJlyid0puaznpkblXDS_JBeeX5jdVSZwWVieIh1BAc6OKL3LD73FteK0D_fHrdI1dnHibYvP_BD5ds4964EGtB5lHJhcAFKWhv8OK8CwN8mN0DMqD/s887/Budget%202022%20Statement%20I.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="798" data-original-width="887" height="576" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhZ5n5QYxqWL15OoIdq7Kbf4_W2ZDiICguwfGJzZv7Cl5CTiyQS2TTTWLjKcNV48BgueTlavQ0lJlyid0puaznpkblXDS_JBeeX5jdVSZwWVieIh1BAc6OKL3LD73FteK0D_fHrdI1dnHibYvP_BD5ds4964EGtB5lHJhcAFKWhv8OK8CwN8mN0DMqD/w640-h576/Budget%202022%20Statement%20I.png" width="640" /></a></div><p class="MsoNormal"><br /></p><br /><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjfmS7iQqvB5oy-Qgas43PL6GwQXd1hHg0tfTjUK24xvY2obrcknGr3HICfxNiy4Bx5vWuVkwTvq7L8Ku9YqbWUpUlV6YS2vC_2iqBKl2sVC9oTN3ZSK2QtTx9KGkgLIhgMPJ7IVkPgHzEEMZVJ0HG_ivUjrRJRUKyGMCFJbemlaC_x0ts2Fe-QlDPP/s902/Budget%20Estimates%202022-23%20Appendix%20III.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="797" data-original-width="902" height="566" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjfmS7iQqvB5oy-Qgas43PL6GwQXd1hHg0tfTjUK24xvY2obrcknGr3HICfxNiy4Bx5vWuVkwTvq7L8Ku9YqbWUpUlV6YS2vC_2iqBKl2sVC9oTN3ZSK2QtTx9KGkgLIhgMPJ7IVkPgHzEEMZVJ0HG_ivUjrRJRUKyGMCFJbemlaC_x0ts2Fe-QlDPP/w640-h566/Budget%20Estimates%202022-23%20Appendix%20III.png" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhNZCrRU3WvcqadkgQ0e2lL0i0_RnqfKce4EP5mSNaD0DQ-mZNfuliHUvtnU1fF2NnsjZU5iu1dnYffadic43X5tU6Tyq23a0dC4kbZqO0bOiU_7WBB_1qSeBRKry56Qya3LkCDTHLsZYfxYvOXf_2osADapd1IVXxj1L1memXrIWJ_XuHleZ7ljoWQ/s907/Budget%202022-23%20Estimates%20bottom%20portion.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="286" data-original-width="907" height="202" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhNZCrRU3WvcqadkgQ0e2lL0i0_RnqfKce4EP5mSNaD0DQ-mZNfuliHUvtnU1fF2NnsjZU5iu1dnYffadic43X5tU6Tyq23a0dC4kbZqO0bOiU_7WBB_1qSeBRKry56Qya3LkCDTHLsZYfxYvOXf_2osADapd1IVXxj1L1memXrIWJ_XuHleZ7ljoWQ/w640-h202/Budget%202022-23%20Estimates%20bottom%20portion.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br />Des Sullivanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02566013585647491614noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-5416046402983187432022-04-07T07:43:00.000-02:302022-04-07T07:43:11.699-02:30FEDS APPROVE BAY DU NORD BUT BEWARE ANOTHER SHOE TO DROP<p><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;">NL may have dodged one offshore bullet, but well-informed
sources in the Nation’s capital advise that the public were given only one
part of the story.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">The Federal Cabinet has agreed, over objections
from Environment Minister Steven Guibeault, to allow Bay du Nord to proceed. But
so far unannounced is that Ottawa has extracted from Premier Andrew Furey an agreement
that in return, no other offshore oil development licenses will be issued. Ottawa
does not want to be seen doing the killing alone. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">This compromise was the cost of the Fed’s $2
billion loan for “rate mitigation”. A more mature, savvy, politician would have
told Ottawa to stuff it. Furey has agreed to the price.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">The “noise” that you are hearing from local media,
over the past few days, revolves around climate friendly wind power and hydrogen.
<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">What you are hearing is a structured campaign giving
the impression that your future is connected with these energy sources rather than
oil – though the globe needs oil and we have some of the lowest carbon emitting
stuff. It is a more important industry than many people, including our own, fully understand.<span></span></span></p><a name='more'></a><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p></o:p></span><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Premier Furey and Natural Resources Minister,
Andrew Parsons, are active parties in this PR job. It includes rebranding C-NLOPB,
provincial legislation to lift the embargo on wind energy development, and environmentally
“sexy” hydrogen. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 107%;"></span></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhXU2yzVxNFDxBFGTAVA5W4h4avAAPA9S8OCt1JvrV4GKZR85PkvUnFTriBmvHpnykQaP5ELkO85FyLxiWGYVD7y8CN3cBNBLiq0IvgT7eSqONJz9KqXbfiR5BU6ApLttjD0pT607zYrAvOG8m8hzQUivGifOoisv77LDQAEKeLPrJ5hIMc5oaiuE2g/s620/Shamus%20O'Regan.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="349" data-original-width="620" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhXU2yzVxNFDxBFGTAVA5W4h4avAAPA9S8OCt1JvrV4GKZR85PkvUnFTriBmvHpnykQaP5ELkO85FyLxiWGYVD7y8CN3cBNBLiq0IvgT7eSqONJz9KqXbfiR5BU6ApLttjD0pT607zYrAvOG8m8hzQUivGifOoisv77LDQAEKeLPrJ5hIMc5oaiuE2g/w640-h360/Shamus%20O'Regan.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Minister Seamus O'Regan</td></tr></tbody></table><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 107%;"><br /></span><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Hydrogen
is not a primary source; it is what some refer to as a carrier, developed from natural gas or coal on favourable economic terms, and inexpensive </span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;">electricity, necessary
for the electrolytic process. Conversion losses challege carbon capture, the road to producing "green" hydrogen economically is far in the distance. Then there are issues of storage and transportation. Expect fierest competition, too, from utility scale solar producers, those with access to some of the required </span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;">infrastructure, and players closest to major markets. </span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;">Some experts say that hydrogen technology is still “ten years away from being ten years away” though Norway, South Australia and others, supplying (brown) hydrogen (the darker the colour the higher the carbon emitted) to Japan's power plants, dispel this notion. </span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;">Still, no one will argue that the
technology and the markets for the cleaner and more accessible fuel will need more time and a lot more capital to mature, which is the part that politician don't discuss.</span></div></div><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-CA; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">That is
not to dismiss hydrogen’s potential. Just don’t let
political rhetoric mislead you to thinking that we can shut down the offshore oil
sector tomorrow and presto, wind power and hydrogen development is going to replace those jobs. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-CA; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">And, on
the subject of wind, if it is not used in the manufacture of hydrogen, what market will it serve? The Maritime Link has been sized essentially to
transmit only surplus power from Muskrat Falls.</span><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;">Of course, politicians have grown used to teasing
the locals with visions of Gull Island; wind and hydrogen are just the new “magic beans”.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Premier Furey leaves the impression that the
offshore oil industry is easily replaced. The PR types smell a public as gullible
as ever, especially those attracted to environmental buzzwords and gobbledygook.
Real project economics? Oh c’mon!<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">There is another feature to this story about which
my Ottawa sources know plenty: NL Minister Seamus O’Reagn and Gudie Hutchings may
as well have been in Timbuktu for all the help they were to the Bay du Nord decision.
<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Bay du Nord was salvaged only because Deputy Prime
Minister Chrystia Freeland and International Trade and Business Minister, Mary
Ng, forcefully argued that aside from a potentially very costly lawsuit
originated by Norwegian oil company, Equinor, any action taken to kill off Bay
du Nord would have sent the worst possible reputational signal to the global
investment community of the risk of investing in Canada.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Environment Minister Steven Guibeault is not happy. </span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;">But he will have the last laugh now that the Feds, with Premier Furey onside, are back in full control of new exploration licenses. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">For that reason, there is more to this story. ncle Gnarley’s correspondents are on the trail of SNC Lavalin. There
will be no shortage of funding in Thursday’s Federal Budget for studies, including for hydrogen and other things "green". The fringe groups of B.C. and Central Canada will
be sated and, just as important, Ottawa’s favourite consultants - and a few locals, too - are ready for a new
gravy train. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Just you remember…only boondoggles need apply.<o:p></o:p></span></p>Des Sullivanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02566013585647491614noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-82807986353175691512022-04-04T07:39:00.000-02:302022-04-04T07:39:10.956-02:30WAITING, WAITING – for Bay du Nord Sanity to Break Out<p><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif;"><b><span style="font-size: large;">Guest Post by Cabot Martin</span></b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;">Welcome, perhaps, to the age of Climate Change Sanity?</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">My words, I fear, will not match danger of the hour or
the honour of filling the highly regarded Uncle Gnarley Monday morning <a style="mso-comment-date: 20220403T1404; mso-comment-reference: cm_1;">slot. </a></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Only last night, I was on the phone with the man himself, dodging and
weaseling, trying to get out of it.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">But Uncle Gnarley, with his big white beard and all,
is not to be trifled with and he soon laid down the law –</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">“How can I run a Blog if you are going to get on like
that, changing your mind at the last minute?”</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;">he asked sternly,
after raining down fire and brimstone, or at least the threat of such.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">So I, whimpering , slung off in my chastised state to
ponder with nothing more than a few fragments of an idea to work on.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Of course, my present confused condition is totally Bay
de Nord induced.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> <span></span></span></p><a name='more'></a><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">I watched the PM’s Climate Change Guidelines Announcement
out in Vancouver this week, seeking some comfort <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>- live or just about live, thanks to someone
who shot and posted it on YouTube. Very informative and partly reassuring
except that the long portions in French were completely garbled.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Either the guy with the camera had failed to pay his French
translation software bill or someone had hacked the proceedings. When the text
on the screen was going on about “Narcos” I just knew something was wrong. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">It’s a worry.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">And then there’s the West Hercules drilling rig making
her way across the Atlantic. Spotty reports since she cleared the Shetlands – is
she still really on her way?</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">More worry.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">I know I shouldn’t be like that.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Sure , I know, I know, that given all the reasons why
doing Bay du Nord makes sense, the project should pass with flying colors. The
Environmental Review Plan basically gave it a green light.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Still a feeling of dread.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjoxfIM58-bh26DoUFHI_OLEoESJ5byK2SviVLJT6TBpSPFaAoXYmkR2rDwnehGQu1BenWU965a_v3oXtXzHaViTL-m2AUlIq3tXYO0xdo6_kDOx9Drvh_Zzf6uvvcFzkE60YwMpfB7vOaBTUcxW-q7-Z_6kg4_aHhueZWhUEIf-FBkuZc-ta3wTDOf/s1280/West%20Hercules%20(Equinor%20photo).png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="720" data-original-width="1280" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjoxfIM58-bh26DoUFHI_OLEoESJ5byK2SviVLJT6TBpSPFaAoXYmkR2rDwnehGQu1BenWU965a_v3oXtXzHaViTL-m2AUlIq3tXYO0xdo6_kDOx9Drvh_Zzf6uvvcFzkE60YwMpfB7vOaBTUcxW-q7-Z_6kg4_aHhueZWhUEIf-FBkuZc-ta3wTDOf/w640-h360/West%20Hercules%20(Equinor%20photo).png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">West Hercules (Equinor photo)</td></tr></tbody></table><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">I’d even tried to put myself in place of the members
of the Federal Cabinet , a daunting task, akin to trying to imagine what a
Martian <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>would be thinking. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;">The plan outlined by the PM, or something like it, is
both necessary and very complicated; the implementation of it even more so.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;">The need for rational moves and the generation of political
consensus will take many initiatives and years to bring to fruition. A
countless series of moves and compromises; real world meeting “aspirational”
goals. Big rackets will not help the process.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;">And sure, the Ukraine Crisis has changed the water on
the beans anyway and projects such as Bay du Nord will be needed – particularly
to help supply our European allies who are already wondering if Canada really
gets it. For Europe, the current state of affairs is not a short term problem –
the break with Russia, and all that that means, is fundamental.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;">And Bay du Nord’s ultra low CO2 intensity per barrel
of oil produced would be by far the lowest in Canada!</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;">And that’s the measurement by which, under the Trudeau
Plan, all activities must now be judged; that’s something that is decidedly in
our favour. And every industry – and the transportation sector – will need to be
put under that same micro-scope.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;">To avoid financial chaos, objective criteria, tempered
by compassion, will need to be adhered to; </span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;">political Dog eat Dog fights have to be
avoided.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;">And, sure, </span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;">then
there’s the fact that Bay du Nord is located outside the 200 mile limit.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;">Now, under the Law of the Sea Convention, Bay du
Nord’s oil and gas is still ours just as much as Hibernia is. And we have just
as much regulatory control over it’s development as if it were inside 200 miles.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;">BUT</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;">Even though Canada (aka Newfoundland) has one of the
few continental shelves in the world that goes beyond 200 miles, at the Geneva
Session of the Law of the Sea (LOS) Conference in April 1977, Ottawa
proposed</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;">that the LOS Treaty say that
wide shelf states like Canada should pay an escalating and eventually
substantial royalty on all oil & gas produced beyond 200 miles to a UN
entity.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;">Ottawa said that this offer, eventually enshrined in
the LOS Convention, was fair given all the other benefits Canada, as a whole,
would get from the overall Law of the Sea Convention.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;">But think, Bay du Nord would be the very first oil field
anywhere in the world to pay a royalty on every barrel produced to the UN’s
International Seabed Authority </span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;">- for the
benefit of, and to be distributed to, the world’s least developed countries –
how could Ottawa be against that?</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;">Sure it was their idea !</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjMyQcuyS-Qu7FFFjfM0eGXlWlICkkCzfkh5tQeKPC0XcfBGkad8WYMyTkDKCEk7Cu7hnjdovGhll3XLarI0pmmRf0PsbCUbEOwNhYhQvSyjWGKQ1OuqvZnaWfoRayHYv3B4sdYE4jGASQA9V7_ACc75LCwlT7anl7hgIsqmqsx32WT5wbvKnl8nioz/s358/Cabot%20Martin.jpg" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="251" data-original-width="358" height="224" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjMyQcuyS-Qu7FFFjfM0eGXlWlICkkCzfkh5tQeKPC0XcfBGkad8WYMyTkDKCEk7Cu7hnjdovGhll3XLarI0pmmRf0PsbCUbEOwNhYhQvSyjWGKQ1OuqvZnaWfoRayHYv3B4sdYE4jGASQA9V7_ACc75LCwlT7anl7hgIsqmqsx32WT5wbvKnl8nioz/s320/Cabot%20Martin.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;">And then I starting thinking about the reputational
loss that would come with a cancellation of Bay du Nord.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;">For a “cancellation”, not a “failure to approve”, is
what has been held out as a possibility.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;">Equinor and partners have spent hundreds of millions
of dollars on exploration at Bay du Nord.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;">In 2020, they drilled an Exploratory Well at the </span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;">Cambriol G-92 location that made a
brand new discovery that reputable sources say contains </span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;">more oil than
all the other fields in the Bay du Nord complex put together. And they want to
drill again in the next few months, using the West Hercules, to get a better
idea just exactly how big it might be.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;">In other words, the Cambriol structure, alone, looks
to be a “Giant” field , the kind oil companies dream of, work towards, and
prize – and they need them to make up for all the small finds and the many dry
holes they drill.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;">And they have, like all such investors, a reasonable
expectation that they will be able to reap their just reward.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;">And now Ottawa is going to “cancel” all that?</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;">And bear the opprobrium of the worldwide investment
community that Canada is a place where rule changes can totally upset your investment
applecart?</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;">No, Ottawa, I eventually reasoned, will not want it’s
big and important Climate Change Plan jeopardized, which will need the support
of the financial community and industry (and not just the oil industry) if it
is to succeed.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;">No, there really should be nothing to worry about.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;">No, Climate Change Sanity can indeed break out in
Ottawa.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;">Stranger things have happened – though, and here I go
again, the list is short. </span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
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</div>Des Sullivanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02566013585647491614noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-45502824524311696862022-03-31T07:37:00.001-02:302022-03-31T07:37:25.127-02:30MUN ELECTRIFICATION: A FORMULA FOR POLITICAL AND ACADEMIC STUPIDITY<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;">Guest Post by PlanetNL</span> </p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-CA" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">PlanetNL42: Electrification at MUN + Broken
LIL<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-CA" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">A Formula For Political and Academic
Stupidity<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;">Government announcements issued on Friday afternoons
are almost certainly bad news disguised as good.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;">Government will try to spin only the positives
while the media and public must figure out the negatives.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-CA" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">So it was this past Friday when much enthusiasm was
fawned over the planned conversion of Memorial University’s central heating plant
from oil to electricity.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Provincial, Federal,
and Memorial representatives lauded the emissions reduction that would result from
10.5 million liters less fuel consumption at Memorial. The $10.5M project will
be funded 50/50 by Federal and Provincial programs specific to reduction of greenhouse
gas emissions.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>All that sounds great - there
couldn’t possibly be any downside, could there?<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-CA" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Well, what if reducing 10.5 million liters of
diesel consumption at Memorial requires the Holyrood Thermal Generating Station
to burn 30 million more liters of heavy fuel oil, resulting in far worse provincial
emissions and increased cost to ratepayers?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>That’s the kind of info that does not get mentioned at these
cheerleading events.</span><b><span lang="EN-CA" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> <span></span></o:p></span></b></p><a name='more'></a><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-CA" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">When Will Muskrat Power Truly and Fully Arrive?<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-CA" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">To succeed, electrification initiatives to reduce
emissions need green energy to replace fossil fuels.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The new source of green energy in this
province is supposed to be Muskrat Falls hydropower delivered to the Island by
the Labrador Island Link (LIL).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-CA" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">That would be the same LIL whose construction was essentially
complete back in 2017 and has since been plagued by alleged software design
problems.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It has operated at an average of
about 10% of it’s rated design capacity and is normally either out of service
altogether or whatever is available is shipped off to meet contractual
commitments to Nova Scotia. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The share of
energy used on the Island has been miniscule. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>After five years of endless failure, utility
and government officials refuse to admit this is a lemon of their own
making.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-CA" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">The only serious appraisal of the situation has
come from the Public Utilities Board US-based consultant, Liberty Consulting
Group. Liberty’s latest quarterly report, issued on March 11, stated they have
no idea when, if ever, the LIL will operate as intended.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They stopped just shy of saying what has
become obvious: that if the project is left in the hands of the same set of
managers who have repeatedly failed to date, we should expect it will never
work.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-CA" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">The evidence regarding the dismal prospects for
the LIL are quite plain to see.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It is
simply not reasonable to expect that green energy from Muskrat will be
available to supply the new Memorial electric boilers in the foreseeable future.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Extra winter season electrical power will
instead have to come from the same place is has for decades: Holyrood.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-CA" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Irrespective of the source, it may remain true in
the narrowest sense that Memorial will not burn oil on their own property and may
therefore lay claim to becoming a greener campus, keeping up with their
mainland and global competition in being able to boast they are greening up
their operations.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The claim is however a
total farce if the utility is forced to burn fuel to meet this new electricity
demand – in fact, far more fuel than Memorial expects to save.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhIpb3n6JbMcQGE3wELmhpt6V4sbjAh2c1y8HRSR7EcTFLRxHKrw2VTqi5FiLjQBORxHSRvTQcJJLP57J_YJpYU5XGh3xbTXKbPO0zy1Qqp67Ej0FZWdPoPhwX8RG9aDJ9wcH7O3fTbc7sa4R-VnjHN2VStkZAhP54670MP02Z3OHooDdnqzxB3c17y/s780/memorial%20heating%20plant.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="468" data-original-width="780" height="384" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhIpb3n6JbMcQGE3wELmhpt6V4sbjAh2c1y8HRSR7EcTFLRxHKrw2VTqi5FiLjQBORxHSRvTQcJJLP57J_YJpYU5XGh3xbTXKbPO0zy1Qqp67Ej0FZWdPoPhwX8RG9aDJ9wcH7O3fTbc7sa4R-VnjHN2VStkZAhP54670MP02Z3OHooDdnqzxB3c17y/w640-h384/memorial%20heating%20plant.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Memorial University Heating Plant</td></tr></tbody></table><p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-CA" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Major GHG Reduction Backfire<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-CA" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">A few more facts expose the magnitude of the risk
that the politicians and Memorial executives fail to recognize.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-CA" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">First is that Holyrood is a rather inefficient
generating station that converts only 30-35% of fuel energy into electricity. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Contrast this to a heating plant boiler system
such as Memorial’s that typically turns 75% or more of the fuel energy into
usable heat.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-CA" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">You don’t need to be an Engineering Professor to do
the math on this one.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It’s clear that Holyrood
must burn about 2.5 times as much fuel to supply Memorial’s new electricity
requirements than if the University stayed with its current fuel-fired boiler.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Provincial GHG output will not be going down
but will instead rise dramatically higher!<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-CA" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">To add further injury to insult, Holyrood burns unrefined
#6 fuel oil, compared to much cleaner refined #2 diesel presently used at Memorial.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This results in enormously higher production
of black soot particulates and other toxins more immediately dangerous to
people and the environment.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-CA" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">The Premier spoke at the press event of how the boiler
conversion project would be the equivalent of taking over 6000 cars off the road.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If Holyrood generates the power as we should
expect, the result is very much the opposite: adding 15,000 cars!<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-CA" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">These wouldn’t be relatively clean modern diesel
cars either.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This virtual fleet of 15,000
extra cars would be noxious stinkers powered by dirty unrefined bunker fuel, with
no anti-pollution equipment, driving back and forth on the roads of Conception
Bay South, all day, and all night.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Think
about the most choking and polluting diesel vehicles you have ever encountered
and imagine these 15,000 cars all being worse.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-CA" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Transfer of Cost from MUN/GNL to Ratepayers<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-CA" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Another key issue conveniently ignored at the
announcement event involves who would pay the excess energy cost imposed by
increasing Holyrood fuel consumption.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>The answer is: not Memorial.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Instead, the cost will be absorbed by all electric utility ratepayers. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-CA" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">The cost of the 30 million liters of extra fuel consumed
at Holyrood, attributable to Memorial’s heating system electrification, will be
about $35 million at current oil costs.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-CA" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">The extra electricity revenue coming back from
Memorial likely covers just 20% of the fuel cost.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Ratepayers should expect a burden of about
$28 Million to provide Memorial with their delusion of emissions
reduction.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The resulting rate increase
to be applied to ALL electricity customers will be 0.4 c/KWh.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-CA" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Extracting that $28 Million annually from
ratepayers also negatively affects the local economy as disposable consumer
capital and corporate investment capital are reduced.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-CA" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">The extra cost to ratepayers is not a one-time event
either.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It’s annual until such time as
the LIL works as intended or other new green energy sources are developed in
response to the failure of the LIL.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>At
the snail’s pace NL Hydro and Government are moving, this is likely many years
into the future.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It’s easy to see
unnecessary costs to ratepayers growing to $100 Million or more. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-CA" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Also, not to be forgotten is that the extra oil expenditure
flows out of the province supporting indirectly if not directly all the
terrible geopolitical problems that accompany oil dependency. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This new oil demand will support regimes such
as Russia and Saudi Arabia whether the oil comes from there or not. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-CA" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Why Does Absurdity Reign Supreme in This
Province? <o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-CA" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">To recap, we are witnessing a plan that appears to
be set for dismal economic and environmental failure. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-CA" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">If the LIL continues to be the flop that it has
been, and it appears illogical to think otherwise, then there is no reliable
green energy to count upon for true fuel abatement and emissions
reduction.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The more likely result is increased
fuel consumption and emissions.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The
emissions will also be qualitatively much more harmful.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>On top of that, higher electricity rates will
negatively impact the local economy and instead support foreign oil interests, supporting
autocratic and despotic regimes.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-CA" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">To be sure, this plan is just insane and is not
what any reasonable citizen of this province should want.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-CA" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Of course, we know that wherever Muskrat is
involved, Government should be expected to double down on their stupidity.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-CA" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Observing our University participating in this
high-risk charade, however, is a new low for our province’s self-respect.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>That the University has proven itself incapable
of seeing the big picture here is a matter of dire concern.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-CA" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Surely there must be some willing protagonists at
Memorial, among students, faculty and staff, who can deliver similar analysis to
challenge their executives to defer on this plan until such time as green
electricity is proven to be available and reliable.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Some from Engineering and Economics are top
of mind, but those in many other programs should see an opportunity to expose
the high risks inherent in this undertaking.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>But will they?<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-CA" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">For the proposed project to have made it this far
is frankly an outsize embarrassment for the University. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>A project with far greater chance of having
costly risks materialize than potential benefits should never have been
approved.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-CA" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">In an era of high claim to environmental awareness
and climate science, the University’s commitment to such damaging risk is
unforgivable and a terrible indication of subjugation to a misguided Government
agenda.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-CA" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">That a blogsite has to provide this preliminary
analysis and construct the argument against the project because the University appears
incapable or unwilling to properly attend to its own business, speaks ever more
poorly for the future of the institution and for the province.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><u><span lang="EN-CA" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Sources and Related Reading:<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-CA" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Memorial University news release on boiler
conversion, March 25, 2022 <a href="https://gazette.mun.ca/campus-and-community/emissions-reduction/">Emissions
reduction (mun.ca)</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-CA" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">CBC.ca report, March 26, 2022 <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/mun-electrical-boilers-climate-change-nl-1.6398760">MUN
boiler to go electric with $10.5M from federal, provincial governments | CBC
News</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-CA" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Liberty Consulting Quarterly Monitoring Report to
PUB, March 11, 2022 <a href="http://www.pub.nl.ca/applications/NLH2018ReliabilityAdequacy/correspondence/The%20Liberty%20Consulting%20Group%20Fourteenth%20Quarterly%20Monitoring%20Report%20-%202022-03-11.PDF">The
Liberty Consulting Group Fourteenth Quarterly Monitoring Report -
2022-03-11.PDF (pub.nl.ca)</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-CA" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">PlanetNL28 – Electrification: Good Business or
Sleight of Hand? <a href="https://unclegnarley.blogspot.com/2020/02/electrification-good-business-or.html">UNCLE
GNARLEY: ELECTRIFICATION: GOOD BUSINESS OR POLITICAL SLEIGHT-OF-HAND?</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-CA" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">CBC.ca report, January 28, 2020 <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/electrification-muskrat-rate-1.5403872">From
fossil fuels to Muskrat: How MUN could lead the charge to electrify public
buildings |CBC News</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>Des Sullivanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02566013585647491614noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-36138649925105536022022-03-28T07:44:00.004-02:302022-03-28T19:32:59.251-02:30BAY DU NORD: AN OPPORTUNISTIC PRIME MINISTER WITH A VICIOUS AGENDA<p><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;">No matter which side of
the issue you find yourself, one thing is clear: there has never been an
occasion when the Government of Canada has told a Province to shut down a
critical part of its economy, as the Prime Minister Trudeau is attempting, in
the case of the offshore oil industry.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">An arbitrary 40-day extentsion to the Bay du Nord decsion and a 90-day freeze on new land sales, the the Prime Minister has put a gun to Premier Andrew Furey's head. Furey has neither chastised the PM for his insult, admonished the GoC’s discard of
the Atlantic Accord, or asserted our interests. The whole spectacle constitutes a new low point in Canadian and NL politics. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">The public needs to be aware of how they are being undercut.<span></span></span></p><a name='more'></a><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;"><o:p></o:p></span><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">First, the development of
NL’s offshore oil is not a straightforward environmental issue, especially when
GHG emissions are a global problem; various countries are taking different
steps, some are still going in reverse - adding coal power generation. The
public knows that if global demand isn’t supplied with our oil, it will be replaced by Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iran or Venezuela, some of it far dirtier and far
less “ethical”, too. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">In addition, the Feds have
an environmental approval process conducted by the <i>Impact Assessment Agency
of Canada</i> which, though contrary to any notion of joint management, advises
that: “<b><i>We are a federal body accountable to the Minister of Environment
and Climate Change. We serve Canadians by delivering high-quality impact assessments
that look at both positive and negative environmental, economic, social, and
health impacts of potential projects. We contribute to informed decision making
on major projects in support of sustainable development in Canada.”<o:p></o:p></i></b></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">The Agency implicitly
reminds that they are neither a political pawn nor some left-wing fringe group
with a crazy agenda; that they “contribute to informed decision-making on major
projects.” The Federal Environment Minister has not contradicted their claim
and is not expected to do so.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">What else did the Agency conclude?
It said: <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 12pt;"><b><i><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">"The
Agency concludes that the Bay du Nord Development Project is not likely to
cause significant adverse environmental effects, taking into account the
implementation of mitigation measures."</span></i></b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;"><br />
<br />
In short, we have confirmation that the Prime Minister’s position on Bay du
Nord is not based on environmental science, nor is it about dirty oil. It is about
placating the fringe, ideologically driven, illogical, and ill-informed groups that form his political base, including the NDP. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 12pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">The
second issue: why now? Why has the Trudeau Government chosen this particular
time to kill off the local oil industry?<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 12pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">The
straightforward answer is that PM Trudeau is a well-advised political opportunist.
<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 12pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">NL continues to have a low capacity to govern. This
is true on both financial and leadership levels. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 12pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">Trudeau
has calculated that he has in Andrew Furey a Premier unsure and unprepared for
leadership. Trudeau knows that this is a place on its economic knees. Our financial
condition has parallels with the one that ushered in Commission of Government
in 1934. Opportunism, including Trudeau’s brand, favours incompetence.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 12pt;"></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi4yxfjWRocuGWlvCPPRaEAE9uUq7tIogdiyWUV0l5mtefHy4wGY7oGDnDgxSXk2xSswRFmMSon9SHBbJBwYyqORiF7rtrq3KH4LXfwRSH6fjuxigBg55i0lwq4kRPLFUfb3hzbS8gEdfrDkyq1C6dw7i2n3bKiiooyDC8yHl8Huvy25cD4VlHaAj2L/s800/Trudeau%20Furey%20VOCM.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="400" data-original-width="800" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi4yxfjWRocuGWlvCPPRaEAE9uUq7tIogdiyWUV0l5mtefHy4wGY7oGDnDgxSXk2xSswRFmMSon9SHBbJBwYyqORiF7rtrq3KH4LXfwRSH6fjuxigBg55i0lwq4kRPLFUfb3hzbS8gEdfrDkyq1C6dw7i2n3bKiiooyDC8yHl8Huvy25cD4VlHaAj2L/w640-h320/Trudeau%20Furey%20VOCM.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Photo Credit: VOCM</td></tr></tbody></table><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 12pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">Furey
is a political neophyte; he doesn’t understand that the election over, and
that for Trudeau and more politically savvy leaders partisanship, now, has very
limited currency. One need only assess Furey’s role in glorifying the debt
laden Federal response to rate mitigation, which is more anchor than life vest.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 12pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">Third,
under normal circumstances in the past, major policy issues involving NL were
smoothed over by Federal Cabinet Ministers with heft. Some people will remember
Don Jamieson; others have witnessed power wielded by John Crosbie and Brian
Tobin. Under any of them, this issue would never have surfaced. Never. Previous
Prime Ministers, the elder Trudeau excepted, would never have contemplated being
so brazen. The more strong-minded NL politicians mentioned would have left the
Federal Cabinet, if necessary, rather than let NL be so badly treated. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 12pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">All
were partisans, but none took partisanship to a level where it exceeded the
fundamental public interest. To be frank, Seamus O’Regan, Gudie Hutchings and
Premier Furey have been enablers of PM Trudeau and Environment Minister
Guilbeault.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In Quebec, the tar and
feathering of that Minister would have already occurred.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 12pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">Fourth
and most importantly, perhaps, the problem of political leadership prevents the
start of a gargantuan effort to inform and to engage the public, to commence a call
to action. On both sides of the NL Legislature, within our Municipalities, and
at Federal, we cannot name a single elected representative with the skill and
capacity to raise the alarm, let alone propose a plan of action to protect our
interests. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 12pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">The
Official Opposition is incredibly deficient. The NDP concur with the National
NDP and conspire in the teachery now underway. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 12pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">When
someone of the caliber of President Zelensky of Ukraine is called for, Dr.
Furey more closely emulates Fred Alderdice, the last Newfoundland Prime
Minister, who passively handed the keys to our nationhood to the Brits. Showing real leadership when the U.S. offered him an exit from the war, Zelensky told Biden: 'I need ammunition, not a ride." <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 12pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">If Andrew Furey was that kind of leader, Trudeau would have been put in his place.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 12pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">If, however, we can’t figure out that losing an offshore development opportunity represents an economic
crisis, perhaps a weak and complicit Premier Furey is not our biggest problem. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 12pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">Admittedly,
not everyone sees the consequences immediately. Some only recognize them when
their lay-off slip arrives, their bank looks for a late payment, or when the
movers arrive. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 12pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">On
any level, however, Trudeau’s attempt to shut down the offshore oil industry is
a gamechanger of historic proportion, a crushing blow to our livelihoods and to
our outlook on a future in Newfoundland and Labrador. </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 12pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">The Prime Minister has made his move – a de
facto "Majority Government" - with the support of the NDP. NL Seats are far less
relevant. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 12pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">Opportunists,
like Putin, will change Europe for a century. But opportunism is not solely a
European phenomenon; nor are Canadian politicians, like this Prime Minister,
above nastiness or unscrupulous pragmatism. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 12pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">Leaderless
and indebted, Newfoundlanders are forced to think of their future. Hopefully,
the resilience to which we have historically boasted will surface, that people
will take matters into their own hands.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 12pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">I
would never have expected that we might look to Ukraine for help, but could we
think of any society more capable, right now, of inspiring us? <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 12pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">It
is surely their spirit of self-reliance, their determination to reject arbitrary
overlords, that our circumstance now calls for. <o:p></o:p></span></p>Des Sullivanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02566013585647491614noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-59442362127546167242022-03-23T06:32:00.005-02:302022-03-24T18:49:45.250-02:30BAY DU NORD: SHEEP GET SHEARED<p><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;">There are only 21 days left. The Prime Minister will decide the
future of the NL oil industry, our economic future.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">The noise gets louder. </span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Is it Andrew? Has he returned from Ottawa? The decision on Bay du Nord? <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">No, its NOIA changing its name.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">They have found another ass to kiss.</span></p> <o:p></o:p><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">But Bay du Nord?</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Furey says: Prime Minister, thy will be done.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">People think its (just) Bay du Nord, when at
stake is the whole offshore oil industry; Bay du Nord just the beginning.<span></span></span></p><a name='more'></a><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p></o:p></span><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">No one really cares – at least, not enough to be
afraid.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Not enough to do something.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">In every nook and cranny, in every business, city and town, in
every house and shed, we find ourselves on bended knee, waiting for the scraps that Ottawa
sends. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">The NL public prays; they pray loudly, beseechingly; some would offer
their first born in gratitude, placing themselves into Ottawa’s hands.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Ottawa will take care of us. Won’t they?<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj2c0WyBC3PScx5b-RKwf-KmWXEmCD4eFEhRx96ECTLTc8Ijx-tKRrKRh04h22G2wM-DFhVW9QvtZYDye5R1QESBPbu6pbvREBfI8rIbResxOIvEe3vV22JIlqReuZgUZNIuKtrjiG_N4Gf75NVNQn4NXeiiE1CSr_zeskmXngxHULl_FUgivDO_OKz/s299/PM%20Trudeau.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="168" data-original-width="299" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj2c0WyBC3PScx5b-RKwf-KmWXEmCD4eFEhRx96ECTLTc8Ijx-tKRrKRh04h22G2wM-DFhVW9QvtZYDye5R1QESBPbu6pbvREBfI8rIbResxOIvEe3vV22JIlqReuZgUZNIuKtrjiG_N4Gf75NVNQn4NXeiiE1CSr_zeskmXngxHULl_FUgivDO_OKz/w640-h360/PM%20Trudeau.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span></p>NAPE, NOIA, CUPE, there's really no difference. </span><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Hear it again: The sound of prayer, of supplication and plea, of
knees pounding the laminate, each impression returning the echo
of entreaty, deference, petition and appeal. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">It's the sound of submission, of cower. From a </span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;">society lacking confidence, a people misled, a society
failing itself, the last dime long spent.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px;">For gratitude unearned; a collectively dignity spurned.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Now, we'll double down rather than fight; we'll pray, hold vigils and processions – we'll applaud the Prime Minister, give him favor, the right to skewer the Atlantic Accord, to ransack the last
vestige of well-paid work, to finish off a place on the edge of abyss. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Forget what we brought into Confederation.
<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">What matters is that the Canadian environmental lobby is
placated, the Maud Barlows silenced, the sanctimonious embraced. </span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">And at whose cost, as</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> other modern economies burn coal, build more coal plants,
build their economies?</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;">Premier Furey. He is just like us.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Weak. A sheep.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;">The Prime Minister will look after us.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Won't he?</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Yes, and sheep get sheared.</span></p>Des Sullivanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02566013585647491614noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-71234392940552427872022-03-14T07:39:00.001-02:302022-03-14T07:39:43.014-02:30Will Critical Minerals be a critical component of the future NL economy?<p> <span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;">Guest Post by Dr. Derek Wilton, PGeo.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;">Dr. Derek
Wilton, PGeo. is an Honorary Research Professor, Earth Science, Memorial University,
and Part-time Faculty Researcher College of the North Atlantic.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ansi-language: EN-CA;">These are
certainly fraught times. As bluesman Jimmy Rogers sang at the start of the last
Cold War,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>“World’s in a tangle”. Before
the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the Covid-19 pandemic caused disastrous
effects to human health and the global economy. </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ansi-language: EN-CA;">Aside from the ravages of the
illness itself, Covid exposed glaring weaknesses in global supply chains, not
only in finished goods, but also in primary mineral commodities. Before
Covid-19, and progressing unrelentingly through the pandemic, human-induced
climate change has been causing serious, cascading, calamities. And locally of
course, as this Blog has been delineating all too well, the provincial economy
is in a mess with little but dark clouds on the horizon.<span></span></span></p><a name='more'></a><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ansi-language: EN-CA;"> <o:p></o:p></span><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ansi-language: EN-CA;">Prior to
Covid-19, concern about the supply of natural resources and how that relates to
the economy, and ultimately national security, led major industrial nations to
designate some strategically important commodities as “Critical Minerals” (CM).
The designation as “minerals” is actually a marketing stratagem, as they are really
referring to chemical elements that comprise minerals. </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ansi-language: EN-CA;">For example,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>copper is on the Canada CM list, but it is
actually produced from a wide variety of minerals including chalcopyrite (most
common in Canada), bornite, chalcocite, etc.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;">Each country and the EU have defined their own list of CM’s; Canada and
Japan have 31, the US 50, Australia 17, and the EU 30. This reflects the
relative importance and availability of that commodity to a particular country.
For instance, the US CM list includes beryllium which Canada does not designate
as being that important to the Canadian economy. </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;">These nations are working
together to ensure some measure of supply security for all these CMs. Recent
events have given rise to even greater concerns about supply as Russia is the
world’s largest producer of palladium, second largest of cobalt and third
largest of nickel; all of which are key CMs.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgTF6j2W32_l1-hEDpB5RmywSkB4CO04NCY-95TjkhSUCaOsMe1AWpHiu_1d1RJkJXXL49nY8tJfcAy6IALKDcLJr2FxrTMix7g77aL8_wsr-hKzc-eqnHK7PcTezFsj9cWKcKTbQCI06U48adq2YLudZOxVDh1cHtLqtVIo1yUgyGolXaOyj112ts4=s800" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="400" data-original-width="800" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgTF6j2W32_l1-hEDpB5RmywSkB4CO04NCY-95TjkhSUCaOsMe1AWpHiu_1d1RJkJXXL49nY8tJfcAy6IALKDcLJr2FxrTMix7g77aL8_wsr-hKzc-eqnHK7PcTezFsj9cWKcKTbQCI06U48adq2YLudZOxVDh1cHtLqtVIo1yUgyGolXaOyj112ts4=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Dr. Derek Wilton, PGeo. <span style="font-size: x-small;">(Photo Credit: Gazette Memorial University)</span></td></tr></tbody></table><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;">The CMs
include odd-sounding commodities such as dysprosium, praseodymium, and thulium
(all Rare Earth Elements), germanium, gallium, and scandium; all elements that many
of us only remember from the Periodic Table in chem class. CM’s do not include
such stalwarts as iron and gold, as their supplies are deemed to be sufficient.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ansi-language: EN-CA;">CMs may also
be the “bright light” at the end of our existential tunnel.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Due in part to concern about climate change,
there has been a revolution in the development of “green” technologies, mainly
dependent on CM, that may offer a pathway to a sustainable future. According to
Nadal Nassar, a world-leading CM expert with the United States Geological
Survey, CM can empower the development of <i>“faster, lighter, smaller,
stronger, hotter, and better”</i> technologies.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>These new technologies will be paramount to a modern society’s success
and environmental survival.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ansi-language: EN-CA;">In
contrast to classic mineral resources, such as iron, etc., CMs are vastly more
difficult to find, process, and produce. Many, in fact, were once considered
obscure curiosities, mainly derived, if at all, as by-products from the
production of other commodities. They are typically found in smaller deposits,
often with unique production requirements. Coupled with the difficulty in finding
new CM deposits, modern societies demand that any development must be
undertaken as efficiently and cleanly (low-carbon) with minimal environmental
impacts, zero (or as close as possible) waste, and as close to total recovery as
possible. “Life of Mine” from exploration to final reclamation must be planned
based on best environmental, legal, social, and business practices. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ansi-language: EN-CA;">NL is in
a comparatively unique situation vis-à-vis CM in that its geological endowment
is rich in CM, it has a competent research and development sector anchored by
MUN and CNA, and it has strong environmental and worker protections (so-called
“ethical” environment).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>NL has a
continental scale geology comprising the eastern edge of the Canadian Shield,
the northeastern terminus of the Appalachian Mountain Belt, and the offshore
sedimentary basins. </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;">Most of Canada’s 31 CM exist in some form in the province. Labrador
hosts significant REE resources at Port Hope Simpson (Search Minerals), Letitia
Lake, and Strange Lake; the latter two requiring significant research before
production can be considered (my group are still defining how the minerals
therein react to weathering, crushing, erosion, etc.). The Vale Voisey’s Bay
mine is a significant producer of nickel, copper, and cobalt. Lithium has
recently been discovered in SW Newfoundland (Benton Resources/Sokoman Minerals).</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ansi-language: EN-CA;">If NL
develops its CM resources intelligently, it can aid the move into a
carbon-neutral world with significant financial reward. </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">Development
of CM could be a foundation for innovation and economic diversification, the education
and training of Highly Qualified Personnel (HQP), and the development and
application of new technologies that would have global applications.</span><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ansi-language: EN-CA;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ansi-language: EN-CA;">To take
advantage of its CM endowment, NL will need to foster collaboration and
engagement between its post-secondary institutions (MUN and CNA), both level of
governments, industry, and the general public. A </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">partnership
must be developed amongst all provincial stakeholders to develop a strategy for
the sustainable development of CM resources.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">This is no time for institutional and intellectual “silos”; the provincial
economy can’t afford them and time can’t be wasted on turf wars. We’re all in
this together, only we can make CM </span><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ansi-language: EN-CA;">a
critical component of the future NL economy.</span><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;"> <span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>Des Sullivanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02566013585647491614noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-14207919301313437952022-03-10T07:37:00.001-03:302022-03-10T07:37:57.991-03:30HOW TO SOLVE CANADA'S CO2 EMISSIONS PROBLEM (without cancelling Bay du Nord)<p><span style="font-size: large;"> <span style="font-family: georgia;">Guest Post by Cabot Martin</span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri;">Introduction</span></b><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri;">The worldwide situation with respect to Climate Change
is like a boat that is in danger of sinking because it has sprung a number of
leaks – some big and some small.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri;">Faced with such a situation, the experienced Captain would
order all hands to plug the biggest leaks first.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri;">On the energy generation side, the biggest hole in the
boat by far is represented by the use of coal to generate electricity,
particularly in China and India. In the latter two countries, the overwhelming
role of coal for the generation of electricity even largely negates the
benefits to be gained from use of electric cars as a solution!</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri;">The use of coal must stop and fast, and the use of
natural gas especially when converted to and transported as LNG is the only
fast, much lower carbon, reasonably priced, way of doing that.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> <span></span></span></p><a name='more'></a><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri;">Those who automatically shudder at the words “natural
gas”<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>and “LNG” are keeping the crew from
plugging the biggest hole of all in the climate change boat - at a time when
time is of the essence.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri;">And as to oil production, reason says in any
“transition period”, governments and investors should favor in policy and
investment, those sources<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>which have the
lowest per barrel CO2 production emissions and are operated by competent,
proven, careful operators – Bay du Nord and Equinor meet that test in spades.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 150%;"></span></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgOXCFsETZQuLQIsKEiEsrETCGwn1W0SAbGCbvG4k3xDlBts2n_kEL0x5R_zhf2ZoKmAHCmSKNjywBKeJqHb9YNHUBwU0nsebgPqfJEbvJFWIlgelm-ya4QnIzX5UDm7hH-zk61vv4_AzIRxwdAx176eCBtVu3oxeBUxq3U4zULB_xYceEp4IE_qq2N" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="507" data-original-width="728" height="446" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgOXCFsETZQuLQIsKEiEsrETCGwn1W0SAbGCbvG4k3xDlBts2n_kEL0x5R_zhf2ZoKmAHCmSKNjywBKeJqHb9YNHUBwU0nsebgPqfJEbvJFWIlgelm-ya4QnIzX5UDm7hH-zk61vv4_AzIRxwdAx176eCBtVu3oxeBUxq3U4zULB_xYceEp4IE_qq2N=w640-h446" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Cabot Martin <span style="font-size: xx-small;">(Photo Credit: The Telegram)</span></td></tr></tbody></table><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 150%;"><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Canada should emulate Norway, which is recognized
worldwide as one of the most environmentally responsible countries and which is
finding all sorts of ways to increase oil and gas production in its offshore
while at the same time lowering its per barrel CO2 emissions.</span></span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"> </span></span><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri;">They have learnt to walk and chew gum at the same
time.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri;">Moreover, energy production is merely the tip of the
iceberg because most CO2 emissions, by far, come from the consumption of energy,
especially from personal auto use, not from the production of oil and gas.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri;">So it is proposed that, instead of shutting down much
needed, employment generating oil and gas projects like Bay du Nord , Ottawa
focus instead on the consumption side.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri;">As a contribution to this debate, let me outline what
I call a “Tri-City approach” that is built on sound social justice principles.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri;">A: Nature of the problem</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri;">Not surprisingly, automobile gasoline consumption,
particularly by commuters, in Canada is concentrated in its main urban regions.
The following <a href="https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/16-001-m/2010012/part-partie1-eng.htm"><span style="color: red;">analysis by Statistics Canada </span></a>sets out the problem in broad
strokes, and though a bit dated, I suspect little fundamentally has changed. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;">As is readily evident by this document’s Chart 6 (below),
the biggest source of auto derived CO2 in Canada , by far , comes from the use
of the personal automobile to commute from the suburbs of Canada’s three
biggest cities (Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver) into the urban core and to
travel within those urban cores.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiup_toh5p3uXzUiLtAzn-u43CfK1_LePheV1_7wYdalB5-S2O8HIoeyYUhj7KHM2lGS4Mb2wLagVdb9glvqQRtpaFFZRSAHzLWddWG5UbxiySoH9GwYTnRdY0q_PkaE91G0G2D2YdzC1CMN27X9L0T6USEnetkYChSwyhJZa86GcSCXvsn8oJabLYu" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="592" data-original-width="938" height="404" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiup_toh5p3uXzUiLtAzn-u43CfK1_LePheV1_7wYdalB5-S2O8HIoeyYUhj7KHM2lGS4Mb2wLagVdb9glvqQRtpaFFZRSAHzLWddWG5UbxiySoH9GwYTnRdY0q_PkaE91G0G2D2YdzC1CMN27X9L0T6USEnetkYChSwyhJZa86GcSCXvsn8oJabLYu=w640-h404" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;">This chart is not surprising as in these three urban
concentrations, which together contain some 13 million people –</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;">34 % of the total Canadian population, there
is a high dependency on the personal auto to access empolyment opportunities in
a central core.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri;">Moreover, this suburban/urban traffic is characterized
by slow moving, bumper to bumper, idling, and start and stop traffic. This
style of auto use generates way more CO2 emissions per km travelled than does
moderate speed, smooth moving highway traffic over the same distance.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri;">Chart 6 sets out the “per capita” emissions in various
municipalities across Canada. Given the large populations of each of the
Tri-Cities , if it instead charted total emissions for each city, the graph
would give an even more startling picture of the overwhelming part that the
three top urban areas play the generation of CO2 in Canada.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri;">Ottawa must have the courage to tackle this problem.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri;">B: Outline of the
solution</span></b><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri;">Recognizing the importance of this problem , the
following measures are advocated as part of a Tri-City Commuter CO2 Suppression
Project:</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraph" style="line-height: 150%; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18pt;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; mso-bidi-font-family: Georgia; mso-fareast-font-family: Georgia;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">(a)<span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: medium;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri;">Special permits to enter the Downtown core where the
driver is resident a certain distance from the Core. The cost of the permits
should rise<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>the more distant the driver
lives from the generally accepted center of the city. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif;"> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraph" style="line-height: 150%; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18pt;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; mso-bidi-font-family: Georgia; mso-fareast-font-family: Georgia;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">(b)<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri;">A special CO2 “suppression” tax on all use of the personal
automobile for such commuting activity</span></span><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri;">These two measures<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>with appropriate financial penalties for any breach of the system, would
quickly stimulate a significant decrease in the use of personal vehicles for
commuting – and radically lower CO2 emissions.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri;">Especially, if suitable incentives are provided for
remote work which replaces a commuting job.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri;">C: Extension to other
Canadian Urban areas</span></b><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri;">Significant urban centers other than Toronto, Montreal
and Vancouver should be encouraged to voluntarily implement such a Commuting
Suppression program as well, with equal access to remote working incentives.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri;">The idea for such a system was generated by examining similar
systems already in place worldwide as discussed below. Successful
implementation of such systems in the Tri-Cities would allow Canada to lead in their
introduction worldwide, making it a business development opportunity in
contrast to the business destroying effect of cancelled Bay du Nord.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri;">D: Social Justice
Considerations</span></b><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri;">Commuters within these three urban complexes are more
financially able to shoulder the costs and adjust to this proposal than are the
residents of largely rural areas who are dependent on resource based activities.
This is definitely the case for Newfoundland and Labrador with respect to the
Bay du Nord project.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri;">A system of rebates and compassionate exemptions can
be devised with respect to any Tri-City program for lower income families.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri;">E: Examples where such
programs have been successful</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri;">Auto traffic curtailment programs have been
successfully implemented in major metropolitan centers as diverse as London,
Stockholm and Singapore. While conceived before the Climate Crisis was fully
appreciated, these projects provide a template for the Tri-City Commuter CO2
Suppression Project.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri;">For instance, when faced with severe urban traffic
issues, London England instituted a system of increasing restrictions on
personal auto use for commuter <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>purposes.
This system is generally considered to have been successful in alleviating
inner city traffic congestion – it has also had demonstrable climate change
benefits.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri;">Here is a review of urban traffic regulation in
relation to climate change worldwide: <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: center;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Georgia, serif; line-height: 150%;"><o:p><span style="font-size: 12pt;"> </span><a href="https://climate-xchange.org/2019/05/29/investigating-the-impact-of-congestion-pricing-around-the-world/#:~:text=Investigating%20the%20Impact%20of%20Congestion%20Pricing%20Around%20the%20World"><span style="color: red; font-size: medium;">Investigating the Impact of Congestion Pricing Around the world</span></a></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;">With regard to London’s decongestion pricing policy , this
2019 study by Massachusetts based Climate xChange says:</span><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><i><span style="color: #1e1e1e; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">“ London began imposing a congestion fee in 2012, </span></i><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;"><a href="https://www.bostonglobe.com/opinion/2019/04/08/how-new-york-got-congestion-pricing-and-why-boston-should-next/ZGARbKEzAoawEg1KbQO4GI/story.html" target="_blank"><i><span style="color: #1e1e1e; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">traffic
was reduced by 30%</span></i></a></span><i><span style="color: #1e1e1e; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;"> within the first year. However, congestion pricing is not
just a way to reduce traffic in major cities, it can also serve the goal of
reducing carbon emissions in urban areas, where they are highest. </span></i><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;"><a href="https://www-sciencedirect-com.ezproxy.neu.edu/science/article/pii/S136655451830005X" target="_blank"><i><span style="color: #1e1e1e; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">Transportation
contributes 30% of global CO2 emissions and the majority of that is from road
transport</span></i></a></span><i><span style="color: #1e1e1e; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">.
Congestion pricing policies lead to fewer cars on the road and, consequently,
less emissions</span></i><span style="color: #1e1e1e; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">.”</span><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri;">What has been missing in Canada is the political will
to act on the Commuter CO2 issue , in face of the political power of urban
centers, especially Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri;">So instead of tackling the biggest leaks first, Ottawa has focused on cancelling high profile
oil and gas projects in less politically powerful parts of Canada.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri;">This is nothing more that tokenism and environmental
hypocrisy.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri;">There
used to be a succinct slogan often used in environmental campaigning “Let the polluter
pay” – in the case of CO2 emissions this, in large measure, would mean the
commuters of the Tri-Cities.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri;">As
it says in the Bible, first cast the mote out of thine own eye. <o:p></o:p></span></p>Des Sullivanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02566013585647491614noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-88444849369201039422022-03-07T07:37:00.005-03:302022-03-09T20:20:48.588-03:30BAY DU NORD: OUR POLITICIANS GENUFLECT TO CENTRAL CANADA<p> <a href="http://unclegnarley.blogspot.com/2022/02/the-gutting-of-atlantic-accord.html" style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"><span style="color: red;">Last week’s post</span></a><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> by Ron
Penney, a member of the negotiating team that hammered out the terms of the “Atlantic
Accord” for the joint Federal/Provincial management of NL’s offshore oil and
gas, ought to remind us of its importance and hard-fought origins.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">It should raise concern,
too, that a process that began under Premier Paul Davis, with an amendment to the Atlantic Accord Implementation Act (the slippery slope) in 2015, was compounded in 2019 when the Feds made changes to their environmental legislation, which the Ball Government refused to oppose, which effectively gave the GoC control over offshore environmental assessments. This was not the intent of the Accord. When the Feds stop approving Development Plan Applications, what is the function of the C-NLOPB?<span><br /></span><span></span></span></p><a name='more'></a><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;">Penney’s post is required
reading for other reasons, especially for a broader understanding of how GNL has
let this vastly important economic tool be subverted under the guise of
national interest by Federal Cabinet Ministers content to sacrifice NL’s
economic prospects in the service of dubious and unfairly distributed environmental
objectives.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">Those environmental objectives
omit consideration of our interests and favour those of Central Canada and B.C., just as
they protect their politicians’ backsides.</span></p><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;"><o:p></o:p></span><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">Of course, Ontario, Quebec
and British Columbia are chiefly placard wavers for climate change; the loudest are
constituents who want last year's gas prices, while they clog up GHG emitting air travel with trinket and apparel orders on Amazon and Shopify. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">It must be wonderful that
their more influential Cabinet Ministers get to download the burden on far less
politically powerful – though, admittedly, more poorly led - provinces like NL.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">NL, for its part, has one
of the lowest carbon footprints on the globe. Point me to a history of
environmental stewardship in this province as remotely abusive as that of industry
in Central Canada!<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">Problem is, NL’s
politicians, federal and provincial, have been co-opted into this corrupt
paradigm because it plays to their partisanship and other loyalties, their
insecurities, to their blatant stupidity, and to their lack of imagination as
to NL’s place in Canada.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">In this context, a CBC
story posted February 10, 2022 illuminates our enormous leadership vacuum
though, not to anyone’s credit, it received less attention than if a hole was
discovered in Mrs. Murphy’s pease pudding bag. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="background: white; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 21.0pt; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm; margin: 0cm 0cm 21pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Georgia",serif; mso-color-alt: windowtext;">The CBC reported that Bay
du Nord “</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: "Georgia",serif; mso-bidi-font-family: "Open Sans";">will not proceed without approval from Ottawa, with
Environment Minister Steven Guilbeault expected to decide next month
whether to give the project the environmental green light”. The report added that
“Guilbeault is caught between opposing sides of the debate around the
cabinet table…that several Liberal ministers from Ontario, Quebec and
British Columbia want to reject Bay du Nord.”</span></p><p style="background: white; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 21.0pt; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm; margin: 0cm 0cm 21pt;"><span style="color: #222222; font-family: Georgia, serif;">Note that a
critical part of our economic future is a matter of debate? Where? Not here. </span></p><p style="background: white; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 21.0pt; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm; margin: 0cm 0cm 21pt;"><span style="color: #222222; font-family: Georgia, serif;">Your
destiny is being arbitrated in Ottawa and you have no say, seek no say,</span><span style="color: #222222; font-family: Georgia, serif;"> in the matter.</span></p><p style="background: white; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 21.0pt; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm; margin: 0cm 0cm 21pt;"></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiQfKyf1kM7sajrU2TUY7HVrBZpD3DlC0sKPZ6VU64lSsJg0xRLCq6ke5QaNZrZtJBtNlls1OD8Q2Jsiwi__MnoHCQDUbpUJEfSDlieOPJJhg-stym-6Bv1GDisRWh7LCQNqD9zIyrHsMwXzr2hWhOnH4wG6PNFbnkl_z1mTXSBbw4tY62JoGOuTHW0=s400" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="300" data-original-width="400" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiQfKyf1kM7sajrU2TUY7HVrBZpD3DlC0sKPZ6VU64lSsJg0xRLCq6ke5QaNZrZtJBtNlls1OD8Q2Jsiwi__MnoHCQDUbpUJEfSDlieOPJJhg-stym-6Bv1GDisRWh7LCQNqD9zIyrHsMwXzr2hWhOnH4wG6PNFbnkl_z1mTXSBbw4tY62JoGOuTHW0=w640-h480" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Federal Environment Minister Guilbeault under arrest</td></tr></tbody></table><span style="color: #222222; font-family: Georgia, serif;"><br /></span><div><span style="color: #222222; font-family: Georgia, serif;">The CBC informed
on Friday, March 4</span><sup style="color: #222222; font-family: Georgia, serif;">th</sup><span style="color: #222222; font-family: Georgia, serif;"> that the Federal Cabinet needs another 40 days to decide. Perhaps, the holdup is not whether to destroy our economy but if we
should be towed out and sunk, too. </span><span style="color: #222222; font-family: Georgia, serif;"> </span><p></p>
<p style="background: white; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 21.0pt; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm; margin: 0cm 0cm 21pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: "Georgia",serif; mso-bidi-font-family: "Open Sans";">Of course, the
earlier news story says it all.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="background: white; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 21.0pt; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm; margin: 0cm 0cm 21pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Georgia",serif; mso-bidi-font-family: "Open Sans";">Andrew
Parsons didn’t speak to the issue last time, choosing only to release a
statement that expressed support for Bay du Nord. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="background: white; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 21.0pt; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm; margin: 0cm 0cm 21pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Georgia",serif; mso-bidi-font-family: "Open Sans";">A
more able, engaged and energetic Minister would have gotten on a plane for
Ottawa to, if necessary, kick down the door of Minister Guilbeault’s office (he would be familiar with those tactics) to tell
him that he may have succeeded in helping Greenpeace scuttle the seal fishery, gotten arrested at some anti-oil protest, but
when it comes to making decisions for this province, Quebec, Ontario and B.C. can both jump in the nearest river.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="background: white; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 21.0pt; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm; margin: 0cm 0cm 21pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Georgia",serif; mso-bidi-font-family: "Open Sans";">Even
if the idea entered his head – and it wouldn’t - Premier Furey would have
warned him of a deckhand’s position opening up on the Ferry to North Sidney.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="background: white; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 21.0pt; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm; margin: 0cm 0cm 21pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Georgia",serif; mso-bidi-font-family: "Open Sans";">Then
there is lame Shamus. The CBC story said the Minister could not comment
because the project is "under active review." <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="background: white; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 21.0pt; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm; margin: 0cm 0cm 21pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Georgia",serif; mso-bidi-font-family: "Open Sans";">Is
the man even capable of more? He could, at least, have been honest and said<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>“under review…by outside interests”.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="background: white; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 21.0pt; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm; margin: 0cm 0cm 21pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Georgia",serif; mso-bidi-font-family: "Open Sans";">And
from the second NL Minister, Gudie Hutchings? </span></p><p style="background: white; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 21.0pt; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm; margin: 0cm 0cm 21pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Georgia",serif; mso-bidi-font-family: "Open Sans";">Who?<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="background: white; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 21.0pt; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm; margin: 0cm 0cm 21pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Georgia",serif; mso-bidi-font-family: "Open Sans";">Not
one, but two gutless wonders!<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="background: white; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 21.0pt; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm; margin: 0cm 0cm 21pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Georgia",serif; mso-bidi-font-family: "Open Sans";">No
NL politician – and, regrettably few others - remember that it was the Federal
Government that mismanaged the fishery and watched it collapse, destroying or
undermining in the process, a large swath of rural NL. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="background: white; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 21.0pt; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm; margin: 0cm 0cm 21pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Georgia",serif; mso-bidi-font-family: "Open Sans";">Equally, few - and not to their credit - are capable of recognizing that the Feds are going to destroy urban NL by
destroying its offshore oil sector.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="background: white; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 21.0pt; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm; margin: 0cm 0cm 21pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Georgia",serif; mso-bidi-font-family: "Open Sans";">Where else would such a catastrophe be permitted to transpire, except among a sleepy
public temporarily overfed by small dollops of federal largesse and borrowed money? <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="background: white; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 21.0pt; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm; margin: 0cm 0cm 21pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Georgia",serif; mso-bidi-font-family: "Open Sans";">If
Ukraine was depending on the kind of leadership Premier Furey inspires, Putin
would have been served his borscht ten days ago.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="background: white; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 21.0pt; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm; margin: 0cm 0cm 21pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Georgia",serif; mso-bidi-font-family: "Open Sans";">The
CBC story contained another warning worth noting. It said “While Ottawa can
approve or reject the project, Radio-Canada is reporting a third option is
being considered: using Bay du Nord as a negotiating tool to shape the future
of the offshore industry.” It continues: “In exchange for an approval,
Radio-Canada reports, Ottawa could demand the province limit its production in
the future or put an end to oil exploration after Bay du Nord.”<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="background: white; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 21.0pt; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm; margin: 0cm 0cm 21pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Georgia",serif; mso-bidi-font-family: "Open Sans";">Now
Mister, can you just imagine if the Flemish Pass was closer in proximity to the
St. Lawrence River that Quebec would permit Ontario and B.C. to decide their
economic future? <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="background: white; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 21.0pt; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm; margin: 0cm 0cm 21pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Georgia",serif; mso-bidi-font-family: "Open Sans";">Do
you think that Premier Francois Legault would sit passively, as Andrew Furey is doing, waiting for the Feds to decide, only to be told to silently wait for another 40 days?<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="background: white; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 21.0pt; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm; margin: 0cm 0cm 21pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Georgia",serif; mso-bidi-font-family: "Open Sans";">Forget
Chernobyl. Think Bruce or Darlington.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="background: white; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 21.0pt; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm; margin: 0cm 0cm 21pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Georgia",serif; mso-bidi-font-family: "Open Sans";">You
may not always like Quebec’s tactics, but Quebecers don’t stupidly sacrifice long-term,
fundamental provincial interests in the service of momentary, self-serving,
vindictive and ill-considered Federal political objectives. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="background: white; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 21.0pt; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm; margin: 0cm 0cm 21pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Georgia",serif; mso-bidi-font-family: "Open Sans";">Not
NL. We’re stupid enough to think that’s how you get ahead. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="background: white; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 21.0pt; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm; margin: 0cm 0cm 21pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Georgia",serif; mso-bidi-font-family: "Open Sans";">A
little reminder of how the Feds play this game….<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="background: white; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 21.0pt; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm; margin: 0cm 0cm 21pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Georgia",serif;">On Monday, April 1<sup>st</sup>, 2019 Premier Dwight
Ball <span style="background: white;">announced, in his own words, “an agreement
that ensures Newfoundlanders and Labradorians are the principal beneficiaries
of their offshore resources, strengthens how those resources are developed
through joint management, and will also achieve electricity rate mitigation.”</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Georgia",serif; mso-bidi-font-family: "Open Sans";"> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="background: white; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 21.0pt; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm; margin: 0cm 0cm 21pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Georgia",serif; mso-bidi-font-family: "Open Sans";">Ah,
yes, “rate mitigation”, that sale of self-reliance for more debt that Furey and O'Regan signed onto a few days ago.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="background: white; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 21.0pt; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm; margin: 0cm 0cm 21pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Georgia",serif; mso-bidi-font-family: "Open Sans";">The funny part is, Ball didn’t need to do anything to make sure that we were “principal
beneficiaries”. That was secured in 1985. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="background: white; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 21.0pt; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm; margin: 0cm 0cm 21pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Georgia",serif; mso-bidi-font-family: "Open Sans";">Ball (and Davis) only succeeded in squandering what was won by deferring to the Guilbeaut’s of
Canada who deride and take advantage of pushovers like those two and Andrew Furey. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="background: white; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 21.0pt; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm; margin: 0cm 0cm 21pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Georgia",serif; mso-bidi-font-family: "Open Sans";">Premier
Furey is picking up where Ball and Davis left off.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="background: white; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 21.0pt; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm; margin: 0cm 0cm 21pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Georgia",serif; mso-bidi-font-family: "Open Sans";">He
wants a NL that is dependent and deferential; he wants to smile, do photo ops
and let Canada take care of us. It is not in him to remind his public that we
have a duty to take care of ourselves, to make decisions in OUR interest.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="background: white; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 21.0pt; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm; margin: 0cm 0cm 21pt;"><span style="color: #222222; font-family: Georgia, serif;">Meanwhile, the NL public is silent, NOIA is silent, the Unions are silent. Let's not threaten the next Federal cheque, eh b'ys!</span></p>
<p style="background: white; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 21.0pt; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm; margin: 0cm 0cm 21pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Georgia",serif; mso-bidi-font-family: "Open Sans";">Speaking
of leadership….<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="background: white; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 21.0pt; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm; margin: 0cm 0cm 21pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Georgia",serif; mso-bidi-font-family: "Open Sans";">It
is truly heartwarming – even reassuring - to watch President Zelensky of Ukraine
in a time of enormous tragedy and human cost, helping keep Ukrainians stay inspired,
resilient, and determined</span><span face=""Open Sans",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="background: white; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 21.0pt; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm; margin: 0cm 0cm 21pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Georgia",serif; mso-bidi-font-family: "Open Sans";">In
this province, after the offshore is shut down and the Liberal Party of Canada doesn't need our few Parliamentary Seats, the public won’t be learning
how to make Molotov Cocktails, as Ukrainians are doing to preserve their independence.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="background: white; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 21.0pt; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm; margin: 0cm 0cm 21pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Georgia",serif; mso-bidi-font-family: "Open Sans";">We’ll
be too busy watching Premier Furey - and our two useless Federal Cabinet
Ministers - run for the hills.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="background: white; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 21.0pt; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm; margin: 0cm 0cm 21pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Georgia",serif; mso-bidi-font-family: "Open Sans";">-----------------------</span></p><p style="background: white; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 21.0pt; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm; margin: 0cm 0cm 21pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; font-family: "Georgia",serif; mso-bidi-font-family: "Open Sans";"><a href="http://unclegnarley.blogspot.com/2022/02/the-gutting-of-atlantic-accord.html"><span style="color: red;">THE GUTTING OF THE ATLANTIC ACCORD</span></a><span style="color: #222222;"> by Ron Penney</span></span></p></div>Des Sullivanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02566013585647491614noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-63794370068729604022022-02-28T07:37:00.001-03:302022-02-28T07:37:42.923-03:30THE GUTTING OF THE ATLANTIC ACCORD<p><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">Guest Post by Ron Penney</span></span></p><p><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;">I</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;">’ve been following with
increasing dismay what has been happening over the past number of years as the
Federal Government has, through the guise of environmental protection, eroded
the authority of the Offshore Petroleum Board created under the Atlantic Accord
to jointly manage the oil and gas industry in the province.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="Body" style="line-height: 150%;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">I was a member of the negotiating
team which led to the Atlantic Accord, chaired by the late Cyril Abery, then
Deputy Minister for Intergovernmental Affairs, reporting to Bill Marshall, the
Minister responsible for the offshore negotiations, who in turn reported to the
Planning and Priorities Committee of Cabinet, chaired by Premier Brian
Peckford.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="Body" style="line-height: 150%;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">These were a very difficult set
of negotiations, particularly with the Liberal government of Prime Minister
Pierre Elliot Trudeau, and initially led by the Minister of Natural Resources,
Mark Lalonde, who was succeeded by Jean Chretien. Those negotiations were
unsuccessful because they refused to meet our two demands: that we would should
be given the same right to collect royalties as if the resource was on land,
and that it be managed by an independent board composed of equal representation
from both governments.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> <span></span></span></p><a name='more'></a><p></p>
<p class="Body" style="line-height: 150%;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">The Liberal government would not
agree with either of those demands. Their position was that our revenues would
be capped and that any joint management system would be subject to the final
decisions being made by the federal government. I can recall vividly the phrase
used by the chief federal negotiator, Paul Tellier, when he outlined how the
joint management system would work and said “Ottawa decides” on all important
decisions.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="Body" style="line-height: 150%;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">Fortunately the federal
government changed in 1984. Prior to that Bill Marshall negotiated the basis
for an agreement with Pat Carney, the Progressive Conservatives energy critic
at the time, who then became the Minister of Natural Resources in the Mulroney
administration. This quickly was translated into the Atlantic Accord after a
very smooth set of negotiations with the new government. It was signed on February
11, 1985, 37 years ago.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="Body" style="line-height: 150%;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">I don’t think that anyone would
argue that the Atlantic Accord has not stood the test of time. It has generated
fabulous wealth for the province. The last figure I’ve seen dates from 2019
when Premier Ball said, when announcing the transfer of the Hibernia share to
the province, that we had received over $23 billion in royalties. Since then
that figure has increased to over $25 billion. Unfortunately we have squandered
most of that. If we had kept our rate of increases in expenditures to the
Maritime average we would have $10 billion in a rainy day fund. But we didn’t.
The rainy day has come and we don’t have anything to fall back on. Plus we have
the legacy of Muskrat Falls to contend with.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p><p class="Body" style="line-height: 150%;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhDOaW3dDY_KXFrZWbLI4y1EEbtF6GaQdvV8WE8h4AY9dh4dxbx4-Nl7y-wRkW0tmBDzxDyqlld617b8WCD60Ph5zETCJveoKxC60d1FnF_pn9-0pic38g9WZZAP5n6bbWJbEYs-lmsb1sUCyjn7srZ--IGuMs02OoDc5o0wBzjnRL4_imQlCyu2nwL=s650" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="650" data-original-width="650" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhDOaW3dDY_KXFrZWbLI4y1EEbtF6GaQdvV8WE8h4AY9dh4dxbx4-Nl7y-wRkW0tmBDzxDyqlld617b8WCD60Ph5zETCJveoKxC60d1FnF_pn9-0pic38g9WZZAP5n6bbWJbEYs-lmsb1sUCyjn7srZ--IGuMs02OoDc5o0wBzjnRL4_imQlCyu2nwL=w640-h640" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Hibernia Platform, Jeanne d'Arc Basin, offshore NL</td></tr></tbody></table><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p class="Body" style="line-height: 150%;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">In addition the economic impact
has been immense starting with Hibernia and then to Terra Nova, White Rose,
Hebron and hopefully the Hibernia South Extension and Bay de Nord.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="Body" style="line-height: 150%;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">A 2019 study by Stantec for
Petroleum Research Newfoundland and Labrador for the period 2010-2017 found
that oil and gas was responsible for almost 30% of our GDP and 24,000 jobs.
Tens of thousands Newfoundlanders and Labradorians have developed skills which
have taken them all over the world. Local companies have been created and
expanded serving the oil and gas industry both here and the rest of the world.
All due in large part to the Atlantic Accord, in particular the local benefit
requirements of the Accord.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="Body" style="line-height: 150%;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">In this fiscal year royalties are
projected to be a billion dollars, or 20% of our own source revenues. How are
we going to replace that?</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="Body" style="line-height: 150%;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">There has been recent reporting
of a split in the federal cabinet on whether the Bay du Nord project should go
ahead at all for climate change reasons. I don’t understand how they can
unilaterally make that decision given the provisions of the Atlantic Accord.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="Body" style="line-height: 150%;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">One of the key components of the
Atlantic Accord is the joint management system. A joint board has been created
with equal representation from both orders of government with a jointly
appointed Chair.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="Body" style="line-height: 150%;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">The Board makes all the decisions
about the offshore without interference from either Government with the
exception of what are called “fundamental decisions”. One of those fundamental
decisions is the approval of the development plan for a project.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="Body" style="line-height: 150%;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">In the case of fundamental
decisions, they are subject to one government’s approval. Which government’s
approval is required is dependent on whether Canada has reached
“self-sufficiency and security of supply.” When the Accord was signed we hadn’t
reached that goal but eventually we did and the final decision shifted to the
Government of Newfoundland and Labrador, which I’m told is still the case.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="Body" style="line-height: 150%;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">It should be noted that the
present federal Minister for Environment and Climate change is Steven
Guilbeault, who has been a long time environmental activist, including a stint
as the Quebec head of Greenpeace. Newfoundlanders and Labradorians will
remember their fight against sealing.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="Body" style="line-height: 150%;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">Reports of comments by the new
Minister of Fisheries and Oceans, Joyce Murray, that we will have to give up
fishing in the service of climate change are also very worrisome. There has
been a lot of concern about climate change having an adverse impact on the
fishery but I had<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>never heard about the
fishery causing climate change. I looked it up and the only reference I could
find is on the Greenpeace website! The fishing industry is worth $1.4 billion
to Newfoundland and Labrador and employs almost 16,000 people.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="Body" style="line-height: 150%;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">I don’t see much future for us if
we have to give up both our oil and gas and our fishery.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="Body" style="line-height: 150%;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">The other provision of the
Atlantic Accord that seems to have been eroded over time is the requirement for
a public review of proposed developments, which, among other things must examine
the<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>“environmental impact statement and
socio-economic impact statement” for the project. The Board is required to
appoint a commissioner or panel to conduct a review of major projects. This
happened for Hibernia and the other large projects but seems to have come to an
end. The Board seems to have gone down a different path and could have only
done so with the approval of both governments. Why our government would agree
with this is difficult to understand.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="Body" style="line-height: 150%;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">One of the purposes of the public
review was to examine, among other things, matters<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>“within the jurisdiction of the Parliament of
Canada or of the legislature.” This would include the environmental assessment
powers of the Government of Canada.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="Body" style="line-height: 150%;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">The idea was that environmental
assessments would be part of this independent review but that seems to have
been abandoned and the federal government has been allowed to exercise
exclusive jurisdiction over the environmental assessment process. This seems to
date from an amendment to the Atlantic Accord legislation in 2015 stating that
the Board is a “responsible authority” under the federal Environmental
Assessment Act, which meant that their authority became a delegated power,
which could be removed, and obviously has been.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="Body" style="line-height: 150%;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">Our Regional Minister, Seamus
O’Regan, has objected to the reporting on the alleged cabinet split but there
are no denials from the responsible Minister and given his history it shouldn’t
surprise us if the reports are accurate. If Minister O’Regan had retained his
Natural Resources portfolio there would be less to worry about but he’s now
Minister of Labour.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="Body" style="line-height: 150%;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">I recognize that the fossil fuel
industry is coming to an end for climate change reasons but it won’t happen
overnight. There will be strong demand for oil and gas for many decades. There
are some, including the new Minister no doubt, who want to signal our virtue to
the world and let other less virtuous countries in the Middle East and Russia
meet that demand. As the saying<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>goes, we
will be “cutting off our nose to spite our face.”</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="Body" style="line-height: 150%;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">Our own NDP takes that position
as well. I’m not sure where they think we can make up a<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>30% loss in GDP and the associated loss of
employment. It’s all very well to talk about the transition to a green economy
but I doubt many of the jobs associated with that transition will happen here.
There aren’t going to be many heat pumps or batteries manufactured in
Newfoundland and Labrador.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="Body" style="line-height: 150%;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">It should also be remembered that
we will be one of the greenest places in the world because of Muskrat Falls.
Just about all the energy used here will be green, albeit at great cost to this
and future generations. Once we all switch to electric cars to take advantage
of our “cheap” electricity we will be the greenest place on the planet. I think
we have done our bit to mitigate climate change and shouldn’t be asked or made
to do more.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="Body" style="line-height: 150%;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">It’s also very odd that a
government which has bought a pipeline to ship the dirtiest oil on the planet
to the world would contemplate the premature end of the oil and gas industry
here. It has just been announced that the costs of the Trans Mountain Pipeline
have increased by 70% to $21.4 billion! Sound familiar?</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="Body" style="line-height: 150%;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">Without oil and gas we’re done
for sure. We are just hanging on by our fingernails as it is, because of our
failure to properly manage our fiscal affairs despite having the highest per
capita revenue in Canada.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="Body" style="line-height: 150%;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">Fortunately the federal Liberals
are in a minority so it is unlikely they can afford to risk the loss of the 6
seats they hold here.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="Body" style="line-height: 150%;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">In the meantime they need to be
reminded of the provisions of the Atlantic Accord and that we have the final
say on this project, not the Government of Canada.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="Body" style="line-height: 150%;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">Bay du Nord is a big project
whose proponent is Equinor, formally Statoil, owned by the Government of
Norway. They know what they are doing and that there will be a market for the
oil they produce there. It’s estimated by the government of Newfoundland and
Labrador that royalties and taxes for this project will be $3.5 billion and
there will be $8.5 billion in expenditures in the province. By the way the
Norway Sovereign Wealth Fund is worth US $1.3 trillion.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="Body" style="line-height: 150%;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">There is an outstanding issue on
royalties however. Under the United Nations Law of the Sea Convention, Bay du
Nord would be the first project in the world subject to an international
royalty peaking at 7% in the 12th year of production. That is because it is
beyond 200 nautical miles on our continent shelf. It’s unclear who pays it,
government or the company, and in the case of Canada, whether it will be the
government of Canada or Newfoundland and Labrador. That will have to be made
certain before the project proceeds. If it is the position of the Government of
Canada that either us or the project proponent is responsible, that will
certainly effect our royalties and perhaps the viability of the project.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="Body" style="line-height: 150%;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">All this uncertainty about the
environmental assessment process can only have the effect of having the
proponent take a sober second look at the project. I had originally thought
that the motivation for leak about a split in the Liberal cabinet was meant to
warn us of the uphill battle that we face to get this project started, but it
might have been to cause Equinor to have concerns and stop the project.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="Body" style="line-height: 150%;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">Our Government needs to assert
its rights under the Atlantic Accord, in particular our right to make this
decision. There are tens of billions of dollars at stake which, assuming we act
wisely, could be the source of money to allow us to make the transition to a
future without oil and gas. Of course, acting wisely hasn’t been our forte, so
I’m cynical that will change anytime soon. But I live in hope.<o:p></o:p></span></p>Des Sullivanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02566013585647491614noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-37432301573669433712022-02-14T07:43:00.001-03:302022-02-14T07:43:44.541-03:30NOTE TO HYDRO CEO: THOSE “GROWING PAINS” MIGHT BE YOURS<p><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;">The new Hydro President, Jennifer
Williams, is either threading very softly with a Furey Government afraid of
taking decisions or has already succumbed to Nalcor’s long established culture
of deception.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">Because Ms. Williams is still new,
we can only hope that her comments to CBC last week are matters of misspeak rather than signs of an evolving attitude. There is good reason to be concerned.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;"><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 24px;"><span style="background-color: transparent; font-size: 12pt;">CEO Williams suggested to CBC that it is common for new utility infrastructure to experience “growing pains”.</span></span></span></p><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;"></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 24px;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 24px;">The comment left the impression that those “growing pains” include the major problems currently plaguing the Muskrat Falls project, which are limiting production to around a third of capacity. After spending nearly $15 billion and years behind schedule, growing pains should constitute only the minor problems identified in a punch list audit during commissioning.<span></span></span></p><a name='more'></a><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-autospace: none;"><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;"></span></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjd--Nr0DyTGWJKLHUKpIv-A5TKq1RywiGGTsDTgbdNv12W--jGxHgG24OnOiMI0S8-psv1sPaT9oWCmyks4sj5eRizhLO7wIlpybN4ZpIpc4NuG4PHRzXjvD0lRX5XFtTUT7LmzhBwi_7v9FsHZ3utbp3OmIFjtEUiVLCzAKmbBJJeb37iW_ABszlL" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="194" data-original-width="259" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjd--Nr0DyTGWJKLHUKpIv-A5TKq1RywiGGTsDTgbdNv12W--jGxHgG24OnOiMI0S8-psv1sPaT9oWCmyks4sj5eRizhLO7wIlpybN4ZpIpc4NuG4PHRzXjvD0lRX5XFtTUT7LmzhBwi_7v9FsHZ3utbp3OmIFjtEUiVLCzAKmbBJJeb37iW_ABszlL=w640-h480" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Hydro CEO Jennifer Williams</td></tr></tbody></table><br /><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;">“Growing pains” do NOT include the 1100
kl. transmission line deliberately constructed contrary to Canadian utility standards.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">“Growing pains” do NOT describe the
sorry state of three new synchronous condensers at Soldier’s Pond where severe vibration issues are interfering with shaft rotation (known as "binding"), Nalcor having already acknowledged that the
“fix” by General Electric is not a long-term remedy.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">And “growing pains” do NOT reflect the unresolved software problem going on since June 5, 2019 (according
to the Liberty Consulting Group) at a cost Ms. Williams would do well to
confirm. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">For the purpose of this post, let’s
stick with the under-designed LIL. Why is it necessary to obscure the real
problem - after Nalcor’s refusal to adhere to the CAN/CSA regulations governing transmission
line standards at the design stage? </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">As a Professional Engineer, does she not
share the public’s disgust at the decisions taken in the very office which she now
occupies, in defiance of the public interest? </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">What has “growing pains” got to
do with professional standards anyway, the holy grail - ostensibly - of her profession? <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">To this point, first, an NL </span><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Hydro 2011
Technical Note draws attention to CAN/CSA C22.3 No. 60826:06. This is an International
Standard; the design criteria of overhead transmission lines reflect “Canadian
deviations (which have) been approved as a National Standard of Canada.” The
following excerpt from p. 6 of the Hydro Technical Note will suffice:<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgMYJr063SFSOZM4oKugAEsqBz41xBvI8ksHbscPIaUlJ9HgUdGTOL0FNmGhbNXGCcZig4eSFwLCGa8en55ZfitiKBuDX9LQpgyqntLXMflRYBYe99DYdH67clShoh-siM_qjdOrdPZvIHrpuZdDSIkV4cHaStGqXuX8AmqOfULJ1jnO0c58W7LUwsR" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="153" data-original-width="975" height="100" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgMYJr063SFSOZM4oKugAEsqBz41xBvI8ksHbscPIaUlJ9HgUdGTOL0FNmGhbNXGCcZig4eSFwLCGa8en55ZfitiKBuDX9LQpgyqntLXMflRYBYe99DYdH67clShoh-siM_qjdOrdPZvIHrpuZdDSIkV4cHaStGqXuX8AmqOfULJ1jnO0c58W7LUwsR=w640-h100" width="640" /></a></div><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;">In 2012 Nalcor planned to shutter the Holyrood
Thermal Generating Station, leaving the Island without a back up power source in the
event of an LIL failure. Hydro now plans to keep Holyrood open only until 2024
– though no alternative to Holyrood has been identified. This is the case
notwithstanding, I repeat, the requirements of Canadian utility standards.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">Second, the standard described
in the excerpt (above) is largely the same as that which <span style="background: white; color: #222222;">Manitoba Hydro International (MHI) recommended
to the PUB at the time of the DG-2 Reference. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">Though
Nalcor adversely influenced other recommendations made by that consultant, in order to
smooth the path to project sanction, MHI did not change what it acknowledged as
a requirement for the LIL, when it acted for the PUB at DG-2. MHI correctly proposed
a far more robust return standard of 1:500 years <b>in the absence of an alternate supply</b>, and
the consultant went further, recommending "an even higher standard in the
alpine areas."<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">Third,
the PUB made this observation in its Report on the DG-2 Reference: Nalcor…support(s)
a design standard for a critical component of the Island’s transmission
infrastructure, even though it has no experience with the transmission line
conditions in the alpine areas contemplated by the proposed route.”<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="background: white; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 21.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 12.0pt; margin: 12pt 0in 21pt;"><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Georgia",serif;">Fourth, on the witness stand at the Muskrat Falls Inquiry Nalcor Project
Management Team member, Jason Kean, told Commissioner LeBlanc that “Nalcor had
an “intention” to move toward a higher reliability period as DG3 progressed.”
The Commissioner noted that the DG-3 estimate did not reflect “the cost of
these engineering upgrades.” Kean acknowledged the fact and attributed the
failure to “a disconnect internally.” <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="background: white; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 21.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 12.0pt; margin: 12pt 0in 21pt;"><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Georgia",serif;">Where, I might ask, do “growing pains” fit into
this narrative? Isn’t this a sordid tale of budgetary </span><span style="color: #222222; font-family: Georgia, serif;">low-balling, of </span><span style="color: #222222; font-family: Georgia, serif;">decit, and of “disconnects” of the irresponsible kind? Isn't this about a CEO wishing that the horrid stuff would go away? </span></p><p style="background: white; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 21.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 12.0pt; margin: 12pt 0in 21pt;"><span style="color: #222222; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;">In the same CBC story, Ms. Williams suggests “that the province has to strike the right balance between cost
and reliability”. In this context, she opines: “Do we
do some upgrades (to Holyrood)…Do we invest in actual backup, and if we do, do we back it up
fully?” All of these, she states, “are questions that we’re going
through with the regulator right now.”</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">At
the start, the questions are not legitimate if the outcome means a lower
standard of power security than those that meet regulatory requirements, or a standard less than that available to other Canadians. </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">They
are not questions for Hydro/Nalcor anyway. </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">To begin with, it is unconscionable to have the very same people engaged in issues of the Island's power security who either participated in or paid lip service to the decision to build a substandard Labrador Island Link in the first place. </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">On this point, Ms. Williams is exposing her ignorance over what occurred. The sanction decision made in 2012 did not constitute a choice between Muskrat Falls and Holyrood. That decision was pre-determined even if, at a regulatory level, the need for a back up source of power was never eliminated. In reality, Holyrood was done only away with in the framework of Nalcor's manipulative and deceptive public communications, and in the telling to the Williams' Government what they wanted to hear. Admittedly, a lot of very silly people bought into the absurdity.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">CEO Jennifer Williams ought to know that t</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;">he
stain of distrust earned under the leadership of CEO Ed Martin did not
disappear with the tepid executive changes introduced by CEO Stan Marshall.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">Ms.
Williams has made some of her own, but she must do far more to restore the public’s
trust in the power utility. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">If
those decisions are not hers to make, she should leave as fast as she can, lest
she is tainted with her predecessors’ legacies, even if we should bear in mind it is Premier Furey's decision that V-P Gilbert Bennett continues to occupy the executive office </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">To this point, if Ms. Williams had even scantily read the Report of the Commission of
Inquiry, it might have occurred to her that Bennett and Project
Director, Paul Harrington did not fare well in the Commissioner's appraisal of the management decisions taken in pursuit of the Muskrat Falls fiasco. </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">Surely, she is not discussing the Holyrood Plant with them? </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">If they have a different expectation, </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;">she should just shoo them away. </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;">Jennifer Williams is still new, but her public comments do cause us to wonder if she is ready for the job. Indeed, she may discover too late that the
“growing pains” to which she refers are found neither in the hardware nor the software needed to run Muskrat Falls, but </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;">right in her own office.</span></p>Des Sullivanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02566013585647491614noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-60829600478092128982022-01-24T07:43:00.002-03:302022-01-24T16:30:19.265-03:30THE LABRADOR ISLAND LINK IS “SUNK COST” <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #202124; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">We should be worried that GNL will double down as big problems persist and costs continue to rise on Soldier’s Pond and the LIL, all the way to Muskrat Falls. It seems destined to be a victim of the "sunk cost" fallacy which describes a tendency to sink more money into a scheme in which a large
investment of time and money has already been made, regardless of whether the
costs outweigh any benefits.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">Last week’s post described
the chief conclusion of the second Haldar and Associates report that the Labrador
Island Link transmission line (LIL) is under-designed and may need salvaging as
often as every six years. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">The Report was ultimately
conducted for Public Utilities Board which wanted more data to help forestall a
repeat of the 2014 outage known as #DarkNL.<span></span></span></p><a name='more'></a><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;"> <o:p></o:p></span><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;"><a href="http://unclegnarley.blogspot.com/2022/01/darknl-was-bad-new-report-on-lil-will.html"><span style="color: red;">#DARKNL WAS BAD. A NEW REPORT ON LILWILL LEAVE YOU COLDER</span></a><span style="color: #222222;"> re</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">fers to an LIL failure in January
2021 when rime ice damaged a number of towers in southern Labrador, which took
seven weeks to repair. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><b><o:p></o:p></b></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">The Haldar report concluded
that the “return standard” of the LIL (the on-average period during which a<span style="background: white; color: black;"> transmission line will withstand weather
conditions based on its design) was far lower than that claimed by Nalcor. </span><span style="color: #222222;">The consultant found that it could be as low as 1:6 years
and estimated the repair period, under ideal conditions, to be three to six
weeks. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">When Manitoba Hydro International (MHI) reported to the PUB in 2012, the
firm recommended a return period of 1:150 years <b>using an alternate supply </b>(i.e.
the Holyrood Plant). They proposed a return standard of 1:500 years without an
alternate supply...and "an even higher standard in the alpine areas."
<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">Like the project budget and most things Muskrat, the return standard was
cooked up. Nalcor needed to close Holyrood; the forecast fuel savings
represented the ostensible basis of Muskrat Falls’ economic viability.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-autospace: none;"><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">Hardar notes
that “</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri;">Hydro has developed,
and is continuing to develop, detailed engineering solutions…to expedite
re-energization of the LIL following a bipole (two lines) failure.” Wood poles
and modular aluminum structures, in addition to better logistics for faster
access to a damaged section of the line, are being examined.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-autospace: none;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjduaHHPytd-oOiGAam3aHPs38QhMuM3gvbm_XPmmMAsDgqU_bMxnmuZfDb4Z-L7n5kutWoaORd2hmXMSbMbFjBeco1vEZUmTFFLL3G9UTdz7WBLbfHYuLeLWLBxya1uiBJCUUoMpbTswRbUZtiSgrY4h_qa_Ivkh04GOj7T2GkZNlSf_zWr_kHudnh=s960" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="709" data-original-width="960" height="472" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjduaHHPytd-oOiGAam3aHPs38QhMuM3gvbm_XPmmMAsDgqU_bMxnmuZfDb4Z-L7n5kutWoaORd2hmXMSbMbFjBeco1vEZUmTFFLL3G9UTdz7WBLbfHYuLeLWLBxya1uiBJCUUoMpbTswRbUZtiSgrY4h_qa_Ivkh04GOj7T2GkZNlSf_zWr_kHudnh=w640-h472" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; text-align: left;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-autospace: none;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">These initiatives might sound encouraging if at issue were old towers scheduled for refit. Instead, under the microscope is a brand new, barely used Labrador Island Link, an 1100 km. transmission line that has never been energized to more than half of its design capacity.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"> </span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-autospace: none;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri;">The very same
people who defended its original substandard design are now permitted to play
with more public money to cover up their monumental error (deception and
recklessness, actually). <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This is
infuriating enough, but the implications of the problem are maddening. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-autospace: none;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;">Naturally, most
people will see the issue in the context of their own power security. Those who
recently purchased generators expect to be protected for the duration of an LIL
failure. But an under-designed LIL poses other problems for the province that
compound the existential challenge of paying for this nearly $15 billion
project.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-autospace: none;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri;">Any “fix” of the 3,224 towers erected,
whether experimental or a response to catastrophic damages, is sure to add tens
of millions of dollars of Operation and Management (O&M) costs annually,
and additional hundreds of millions to remediate the TL every half dozen years
or so, as weather tests Nalcor’s technical temerity.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-autospace: none;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjOuuUmN9pI7za1-o1Z7dlU78r6pwQq4EwjGvsoQJUFGAtLFx_5rLjCgWMsu8QZcqvUh-_6fHLFKJ1qBdtL9237pMW_mXuLrL03kXKaY8Hp3xDg-fYMlRinY6-yWjxg-_uigZbVMwljLXdDXxIeTs9AX8wjKjnzUlMGIWUdT8sZs5TH4IoFyW5s8tvA=s2048" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="2048" data-original-width="1365" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjOuuUmN9pI7za1-o1Z7dlU78r6pwQq4EwjGvsoQJUFGAtLFx_5rLjCgWMsu8QZcqvUh-_6fHLFKJ1qBdtL9237pMW_mXuLrL03kXKaY8Hp3xDg-fYMlRinY6-yWjxg-_uigZbVMwljLXdDXxIeTs9AX8wjKjnzUlMGIWUdT8sZs5TH4IoFyW5s8tvA=s320" width="213" /></a></div><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-autospace: none;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri;">Haldar does not
address climate change and how related extreme weather events are already
giving fright over infrastructure robustness in many towns and cities,
including within Canada. Eventually, NL Hydro will be forced to add these
events to the calculation of the “real” return standard of the LIL.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-autospace: none;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri;">The current
O&M budget is still untested, too, the estimate having doubled after Stan
Marshall became CEO and dialed back when the requirements for rate mitigation
became unachievable. That won’t make the actual costs any lower.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-autospace: none;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri;">Of course,
lawyers will constantly remind GNL, as they have done already, to think of
commitments made to Nova Scotia in relation to the Maritime Link. But as fellow
blogger, PlanetNL notes, “there ought to rationally be a tipping point” in this
LIL salvage operation, one “where suffering a </span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">settlement agreement with Emera to abandon the Maritime Link is
preferable to dumping more money into the ML or the LIL.”</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-autospace: none;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">The Haldar report logically leads us to
another conclusion that Holyrood – or an equivalent replacement plant - will
have to be kept running as the permanent backup to both TLs. That means the
public should be on-guard that Holyrood becomes the backup supply for Nova
Scotia’s Emera, too.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-autospace: none;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Except that PlanetNL knows provincial
politicians will spend an empty Treasury dry before they will ever arrive at a
conclusion as sensible as abandoning the LIL.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-autospace: none;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">David Vardy and PlanetNL have written extensively
about the Muskrat Falls project’s lack of viability and the shortcomings of the
“rate mitigation” scheme concocted by the Furey Administration, with the
Federal Government’s assistance. At all times, GNL has assumed that Muskrat is,
at least, technically viable project and is worth spending large annual
subsidies will make the financial problems go away. On this level, too, Vardy
and PlanetNL argue that the thesis is wrong.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-autospace: none;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">The Haldar Report confirms, however,
that the LIL’s low return standard makes it technically untrustworthy, too.
Haldar only reviewed the LIL. Other major issues prevail: Three patched up
synchronous condensers at Soldier’s Pond, vital to the operation of the
electrical grid, are fitted with elliptical bearings which lower vibrations levels in
the foundation. Nalcor doubts it is a long term “fix”.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-autospace: none;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Software issues keep the project at
half production. As yet unproven China-purchased generators (Nalcor neglected
to have their manufacture surveyed, though the large Units were the first of
their size produced by the manufacturer) sit
in the powerhouse. Add </span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px;">the North Spur stability problem and </span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">a Water Management Agreement, which the Quebec Superior Court
was limited in its ability to resolve. All compound the technical weaknesses of the
project.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-autospace: none;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhhLRnv_zAx8ctxqWj3yJE1U5HoPx0Pu1NPtJ25slzhvgKaCqxD2XJ3K2FNwLv0gkuSeM_OtCzbpd7q9jCCp1JlJmLCGeJrRAulTSIgwgE7ku3vW37GhzrcrBvQKf4v3qFYY6YnUPcVO1WCipk0wIb6kCuJfpl207C64_nrtwHjaEXmP6M4nledpDxs=s286" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="176" data-original-width="286" height="394" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhhLRnv_zAx8ctxqWj3yJE1U5HoPx0Pu1NPtJ25slzhvgKaCqxD2XJ3K2FNwLv0gkuSeM_OtCzbpd7q9jCCp1JlJmLCGeJrRAulTSIgwgE7ku3vW37GhzrcrBvQKf4v3qFYY6YnUPcVO1WCipk0wIb6kCuJfpl207C64_nrtwHjaEXmP6M4nledpDxs=w640-h394" width="640" /></a></div><br />Governments are not capable of big, courageous decisions; most of them made are of the incremental kind. For that reason, the financial bleed of rate mitigation promises to be compounded by a series of multi-million dollar “band-aids”, none of which will can cure the diabolical array of problems that, at its birth, entered Muskrat’s DNA. <span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-autospace: none;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Holyrood will have to be kept running as
the backup to the LIL, adding to the annual rate mitigation requirements. Does Premier
Furey have the cohunes to tell Emera and the Nova Scotia UARB of their failure
to perform an adequate assessment of the LIL, and that they should pay for
their own bad decisions?</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-autospace: none;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Someone will need to consider all those
issues, not separately as they present, but together – now - before their
collective financial consequences start to make the current price tag look
cheap.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-autospace: none;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Face it: </span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: black; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">There is already ample
evidence that the LIL won't be anything better than a rotten lemon. The
other assets are not giving off great smells either.</span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-autospace: none;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">The correct incremental decision,
therefore, is to shut the LIL down now, and let the MF powerhouse operate until
it doesn’t. That is the only answer to the PUB’s worry over the question of power
security on the Island.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-layout-grid-align: none; tab-stops: 297.6pt; text-autospace: none;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">A cryptocurrency mining industry in Labrador will bring in some
revenues until the decision to close Muskrat Falls is made.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-layout-grid-align: none; tab-stops: 297.6pt; text-autospace: none;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">A perfect idea for a province too quick to fall in love with a good
story!<o:p></o:p></span></p>Des Sullivanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02566013585647491614noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-55161938035684802392022-01-17T08:03:00.002-03:302022-01-17T08:03:30.655-03:30#DARKNL WAS BAD. A NEW REPORT ON LIL WILL LEAVE YOU COLDER.<p> <span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;">The recent release by the PUB of the second
Haldar Associates Report represents a timely and sobering analysis of the
findings of its investigation into, among other things, the reliability of the
Labrador Island Link (LIL).</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">The NL public should not need to be reminded
that last week marked the seventh anniversary of #DarkNL. That was a week in
which many people, especially those living on the Avalon, came face to face
with the worst consequences of public sector incompetence, a matter confirmed
and chronicled by the Liberty Consulting Group for the Public Utilities Board
(PUB). <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">It also caused the downfall of an incompetent
Premier. Sadly she was replaced, successively, with a bevy of incompetent
successors.<span></span></span></p><a name='more'></a><span style="color: black; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><o:p></o:p></span><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0in; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 12.0pt; margin: 12pt 0in 0in;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">The 2014
widespread outage could easily have had far worse consequences than those
recorded.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0in; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 12.0pt; margin: 12pt 0in 0in;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">U</span><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">nbeknownst to most people, </span><span style="color: black; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">t</span><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">he winter of 2021 might have
been the year, had the Holyrood Thermal Generating Station
been shuttered as planned. This is one of the takeaways of the second Haldar
Report.</span><span style="color: black; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0in; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 12.0pt; margin: 12pt 0in 0in;"><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">A short history: A </span><span style="color: #222222; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">January 11, 2021 incident
report, internal to Nalcor, reported damages on eight towers due to the
formation of rime ice during a sleet storm in southern Labrador, a fact given no notice in the media
until after it was reported on the Uncle Gnarley Blog. <span style="background: white;">When the Liberty Consulting Group employed by the PUB
reported in February, </span>the public learned that the problem was worse
than initially noted. The consultant informed that “16 areas have been
identified as experiencing electrode line conductor damage...” in the ice
storm.</span><span style="color: black; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0in; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 12.0pt; margin: 12pt 0in 0in;"><span style="color: #222222; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">At the
time, multiple engineers confirmed privately to the author that the damages on
the LIL were far more serious than Nalcor was admitting. Those allegations
turned out to be true. Nalcor confirmed the following month that “[i]n total,
36 electrode line conductor spans required conductor splicing, repair, or
restringing, as well as 11 cross arms required repair or replacement.”</span><span style="color: black; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0in; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 12.0pt; margin: 12pt 0in 0in;"><span style="color: #222222; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">The
main repair work was completed by February 25, 2021, though part of the work
was performed later.</span><span style="color: black; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0in; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 12.0pt; margin: 12pt 0in 0in;"><span style="color: #222222; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Liberty
noted that some of the repair sites required “snow clearing of approximately 65
km.” They essentially confirmed one engineer’s assertion that “after the first
140” kilometers (south of Goose Bay), off-road access and conditions along the
LIL are a “logistical nightmare.”</span><span style="color: black; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0in; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 12.0pt; margin: 12pt 0in 0in;"><span style="color: #222222; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">That is
because easy access via the Trans Labrador Highway ends and conditions,
including the period of the spring thaw, make the LIL service access road
virtually impassable by heavy equipment.</span><span style="color: black; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0in; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 12.0pt; margin: 12pt 0in 0in;"><span style="color: #222222; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Last
year’s repair period ran for six weeks. The crisis of #DarkNL in January 2014
ran for just one week. </span><span style="color: black; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEi2rv0lt2bSssnlHAWKGdrFFrJrx5pu2k5mrtKAnOXyzSIrK3ZuUAEarhn4_vTDTzQ44cqKrmtndicOPih3D5cNsXWkl5BGmcCXgT8sgWA0I6pC478og-YYeyzLvGPZo1pQhshJ32UWtXV1NU77iMo6T-QtYe8YKHZGNtJdd1BrCev682GaXqdaNxOt=s1288" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="631" data-original-width="1288" height="314" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEi2rv0lt2bSssnlHAWKGdrFFrJrx5pu2k5mrtKAnOXyzSIrK3ZuUAEarhn4_vTDTzQ44cqKrmtndicOPih3D5cNsXWkl5BGmcCXgT8sgWA0I6pC478og-YYeyzLvGPZo1pQhshJ32UWtXV1NU77iMo6T-QtYe8YKHZGNtJdd1BrCev682GaXqdaNxOt=w640-h314" width="640" /></a></div><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;"><span style="color: #222222; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt; text-align: left;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;"><br /></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="color: #222222; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">The Haldar
Report informs us that the integrity of the LIL is essentially under threat
every winter season because </span></span><span style="color: #222222; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">the LIL is far more susceptible to extreme
weather events than initially forecast. </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="color: #222222; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">The conclusion bears directly on the
robustness of the transmission line, referred to as the “return standard”. (</span><span style="color: black; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">A return period of 50 years, for example, means the transmission
line is designed to withstand weather conditions that will occur on average
once in a 50-year period.) (Vol 2 CIMFP Vol. 2)</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0in; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 12.0pt; margin: 12pt 0in 0in;"><span style="color: #222222; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">The
latest Haldar Report conducted a “revised reliability analysis” using a “more
extreme loading consideration” than that employed by Nalcor. The data
“indicate[d] a probability of failure of 10% and a return period of 1:10
years.”</span><span style="color: #222222; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="color: #222222; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Haldar’s assessment becomes even more sobering when “[o]ther
outcomes include consideration of regional correlation (mainly weather and
conditions affecting access for repair operations) and line length where the
return period could be as low as 1:6 years with an associated annual failure
rate of 16%.”</span><span style="color: black; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="color: #222222; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;">Haldar describes an optimal scenario in which, following a line
failure, “unlimited resources” are available including multiple repair crews,
heavy equipment, twenty-four hour work days, suitable weather conditions,
experienced crews and an understanding of the issues involved. Under those
ideal conditions, the Report states, “restoration could take up to seven weeks,
depending on the circumstances of the failure.”</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="color: #222222; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;">The potential of a weather-induced line failure once every six
years implies monumental issues of power insecurity as well as life safety and
financial implications for the whole economy of the province. </span><span style="color: #222222; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="color: #222222; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">The Haldar assessment was directed at ice loading and wind
conditions in parts of southern Labrador, the Great Northern Peninsula, and the
Avalon Peninsula, where extreme wind and icing conditions are almost legendary.
Local engineers freely acknowledge the problem of remote access for heavy
equipment during both the winter and the spring thaw. Others draw attention to
the analysis performed at the pre-sanction stage of the project as well as to
the warning of the DG-2 and DG-3 Reports of Manitoba Hydro International, the
PUB and, eventually, Newfoundland Power Co. Ltd. Each entity raised serious
issues with Nalcor’s LIL return standard, which the Public Inquiry validated. </span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="color: #222222; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Worth mentioning, too, is that one of the issues on which MHI
did not cave to GNL's and Nalcor's interference in the writing of their
conclusions related to the issue of the proposed return standard. MHI wanted an LIL based
upon a return period of 1:150 years using an alternate supply, and 1:500 years
without an alternate supply...and "an even higher standard in the alpine
areas."</span><span style="color: black; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="color: #222222; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Holyrood represented that alternative supply but closing it was the only basis Nalcor possessed for running with the Muskrat Falls project. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="color: #222222; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Nalcor ignored the recommendation; the leadership was prepared
to risk seeing the public freeze in the dark rather than risk skewering their
dreams of megaproject stardom by preparing an honest project estimate.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;"></p><blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0px 40px; padding: 0px;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjZlzRZmOf4d2v1muYRSsT-AS0MMThTi8E-B6xI7yXXGXzmYb8MoCPmAhw6bJnc8LdbY6NRxiI5o9Sv-jpM88N6mJJ3uDH85hSLOWLYXbcN8ypQkprDx4pb2wLSvmrumS9JOsp9jtwkA9EXJ05jDm_4t4U7TFqCaf7tw8PoG49v2DLuMt3ZLxNOQsGe=s276" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="183" data-original-width="276" height="424" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjZlzRZmOf4d2v1muYRSsT-AS0MMThTi8E-B6xI7yXXGXzmYb8MoCPmAhw6bJnc8LdbY6NRxiI5o9Sv-jpM88N6mJJ3uDH85hSLOWLYXbcN8ypQkprDx4pb2wLSvmrumS9JOsp9jtwkA9EXJ05jDm_4t4U7TFqCaf7tw8PoG49v2DLuMt3ZLxNOQsGe=w640-h424" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="color: #222222; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%; text-align: left;">Returning to the Haldar Report, however, in 2019, NL hydro performed an exercise to confirm the restoration time
of a TL failure. The outcome confirmed that </span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%; text-align: left;">“restoration
could take up to seven weeks, depending on the circumstances of the failure.”
Highly-experienced local electrical contractor, Locke’s Electric Limited, also
conducted an analysis for Hydro. The company, states Haldar, “estimated
restoration time frame of three to six weeks, depending on the scenario
including logistics and line location.” </span></p></blockquote><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">In 2014, the public was rightly furious after just one week of
extended and rolling blackouts. Think of a shuttered Holyrood plant and rolling
blackouts for periods of three to six weeks or longer? <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 24px; margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 24px; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">The</span><span style="color: #222222; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 24px; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> LIL return periods were previously defined by Nalcor “to be in the range of 1:73 to 1:160 years.” They could only have been based upon icing and wind conditions anywhere else but here.</span><span style="color: #222222; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 24px; margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="color: #222222; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 24px; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Nalcor was warned and proceeded with the project anyway, without performing the necessary design changes.</span><span style="color: #222222; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 24px; margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="color: #222222; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 24px; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Not unexpectedly, Nalcor “pushed back” on the Haldar Report in its latest submission to the PUB, suggesting that the consultant’s conclusions were based on “extreme values” and were, therefore, “overly conservative”.</span><span style="color: #222222; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 24px; margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="color: #222222; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 24px; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Nalcor accuses Haldar of drawing conclusions based on a lack of historical data, they offer no evidence on which to support their position.</span><span style="color: #222222; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">It is now, therefore — not in the middle of a long period
of rolling blackouts — that we should be communicating with the PUB over the
under-designed LIL transmission line.</span><span style="color: black; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0in; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 12.0pt; margin: 12pt 0in 0in;"><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">If the public was furious about being left in the dark after a week during #DARKNL, think of seven weeks - or more - of rolling blackouts.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0in; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 12.0pt; margin: 12pt 0in 0in;"><br /></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>Des Sullivanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02566013585647491614noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-54636139440028943092022-01-10T07:41:00.000-03:302022-01-10T07:41:03.658-03:30GNL LOST IN PUBLIC POLICY WILDERNESS<p><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;">The Furey Administration’s
decision to cut $20 million from funding for offshore seismic surveying, a
program ostensibly intended to enhance bidding for explorations rights in the
offshore oil sector, is the right one. Unfortunately, the decision is a pause
rather than a cancellation.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">The distinction is self-evident,
but at issue is that the Government of Newfoundland and Labrador really hasn’t
spent five minutes on the broader public policy questions of how best to pare
the expenses of the Government in pursuit of the balanced budget objective described
in the PERT Report. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">Cancellation, rather than pause,
should have been an easy decision in this case, because more objective industry
players, which do not include either OILco or NOIA, will remind that majors and supermajors - Suncor, Equinor, ExxonMobil, Chevron and others - are cash rich again, and more than capable of performing their own seismic programs. Global oil prices are replenishing their coffers, enabling them to pay down debt, buy back shares, and in some cases, double the dividends to their shareholders. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">This issue should be viewed in
conjunction with Government’s recent referral to the banking firm of Rothschild
of an unconfirmed number of assets for valuation. Together, the decisions confirm
that provincial public policy remains a haphazard, ill-defined, even kneejerk process.<span></span></span></p><a name='more'></a>
<o:p></o:p><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">Some would argue that the
Government deserves some slack in its approach, that they have good intentions
but lack the skills to prepare or misunderstand the benefits of a more transparent
path of public policy execution.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If
Furey was using his truncated approach to deal with the fiscal crisis, that
would be another reason to reserve judgment on his Administration’s intentions.
But anyone who saw CBC reporter Peter Cowan’s interview with the Premier, “Here
and Now” 7 January 2022, would have heard the Premier say that he has always
said that “it is going to take five to ten years to get out of the position we
are in.” If that is the case, he has concluded that he is dealing with an
unacceptable trend, not a fiscal crisis. That is inconsistent not just with the
spending practices of the last decade, but with the reasons he employed Moya
Greene and established PERT.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">Nevertheless, if his thesis is
the correct one — the urgency for swift action no longer a factor — this only
bolsters the rationale for why the public should now be witness to a
government-wide policy and program review.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">In other words, the public should
now be witnessing not the employment of an appraiser, but the analysis of a
Government that has thought through the public policy implications of program
changes and asset divestitures.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">That is not the same as saying that
some of the potential asset sales aren’t prudent or that the Government should
not seek advice on how to proceed. Rather, the public interest dictates that
they have a right to understand any fallout from those decisions, positive and
negative, most especially if large asset sales — like Bay d’Espoir or the Upper
Churchill — are being contemplated. That is the basis of transparent democratic
government. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEg1Nl7OsmxIQGQcsRQh40_tPTzUf6JyIsMdRZHv62_siDt0htCvx8hEt8gNOy-r39y18vQUALEpNt8CXGqYsMVv9q7hLfobQqFbpj4CEno_bjBO6zAaHt0Yfb7SSSww5l0IxFJeOik8Gad34zW45nYepBatftkJ2wfCggiodrDBErA1fNqp69QKSlii=s1000" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="1000" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEg1Nl7OsmxIQGQcsRQh40_tPTzUf6JyIsMdRZHv62_siDt0htCvx8hEt8gNOy-r39y18vQUALEpNt8CXGqYsMVv9q7hLfobQqFbpj4CEno_bjBO6zAaHt0Yfb7SSSww5l0IxFJeOik8Gad34zW45nYepBatftkJ2wfCggiodrDBErA1fNqp69QKSlii=w640-h480" width="640" /></a></div><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;">Any smaller asset sales, such as
those mentioned in the Finance Minister’s release (namely the liquor corporation,
registries, and the Marble Mountain ski resort), require a similar focus for
very good reasons — before they reach some valuation consultancy.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">If the Premier and his Ministers
believe that there are no implications worth communicating, I suggest that they
are in the wrong business. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">Consider: Are there any implications
for western Newfoundland’s tourism economy if Marble Mountain is transferred to
private hands? Is Government prepared to sell the asset to the highest bidder
notwithstanding the winner’s financial capacity to absorb possibly large and
long-term losses? Can the tourism sector afford Marble’s closure if that is a
consequence of the divestiture? <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">Are there no public policy
implications for the sale of registries either? No issues of privacy? No
considerations of oversight? <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;">How about the public policy
issues related to the sale of the Liquor Corporation?</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">What is the future of the Corporation’s
dispensation and management of liquor licences and the shape of continued tax
revenues? Is Government giving up only the retail platform while maintaining
the wholesale and warehousing components? What of the manufacturing/bottling
side of the operation and the jobs that go with it? Will an entity strictly
engaged in retailing be permitted to close any tangly bits on which they lack
expertise? If the whole enchilada is privatized, what is the relationship of a
private operator and the Agency stores located in rural NL? <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">All those questions contain a
public policy component, and they affect not only the terms of any sale but the
valuation of the asset on offer, especially if Government chooses to retain
certain parts of them or attempts to hold particular elements of control. None
are particularly insurmountable in a public interest context. However, each
question contains implications which the public has a right to know now, not
after the assets are sold. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">Rothschild should not be making
any of those decisions; that is the role of Government. That is why the
referral to Rothschild is premature.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">What of the returns from those
asset sales, the small ones like the Liquor Corporation, or larger ones, like
our hydro assets? Will they be used to draw down the huge public debt? Or will
Government continue to spend $2–3 billion annually in excess of revenue, making
the process a charade that will render the province worse off in the future? <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">The Premier claims that the
deficit has been reduced to $596 million. The figure is, at best, fanciful. His
Finance Minister has never explained why the last Budget indicated a “cash” <span style="color: #3c3c3c;">deficit of $1.66 billion which was twice the amount
Government reports on an “accrual” basis!</span></span><span style="color: black;"> </span><span style="color: black; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">Neither this, nor the lower deficit figure claimed by the Premier,
reflect borrowing for the Capital (infrastructure) Account, the near-term
impact of huge spending on Public-Private Partnerships (P3s) or the shortfall
in revenue necessary to sustain Muskrat Falls financing and operating costs,
even after Federal “rate mitigation” assistance is accounted for. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">As you can see, it is tough to
cut the Government slack when it continues to misrepresent the province’s true
fiscal position. And chooses a boorish approach to public policy.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">An informed public makes better
choices, even if the result is push-back and protest. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">A Government that misleads will
not be capable of controlling or curing their whiplash when, inevitably,
reality’s outcome starts to bite. <o:p></o:p></span></p>Des Sullivanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02566013585647491614noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-69637128503620138232022-01-05T22:01:00.002-03:302022-01-06T08:48:41.883-03:30BOOSTER BUMBLING<p> <span style="font-size: large;">Guest Post by Ron Penney</span></p><p class="Body"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt;">ON
A WILD GOOSE CHASE - SEARCHING FOR </span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt;">THE ELUSIVE BOOSTER SHOT</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></b></p>
<p class="Body"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt;">Like
those of you who are of a certain age, I was very much looking forward to
getting my booster shot, particularly with the advent of the omicron variant,
which has proven to be much more contagious, although so far a much more benign
variant.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="Body"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt;">The
evidence is that the two doses does not provide much protection from
getting<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>the variant but does protect
against hospitalization and fatal outcomes for those who are fully vaccinated.
The booster shot gives much more protection from infection and lessens the
severity of symptoms even more.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="Body"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt;">The
objective has to be to not overwhelm our hospitals, as they also experience the
loss of health care workers who have to self isolate because of possible
exposure. So far our hospitalizations are very low, but the experience of other
jurisdictions demonstrates that this is unlikely to last.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> <span></span></span></p><a name='more'></a><p></p>
<p class="Body"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt;">We
know that covid disproportionately effects the elderly and those with
underlying health conditions. This province has the largest percentage of both,
so wisely the original vaccination effort was prioritized on that basis.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="Body"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt;">I
thought that effort was very well planned and implemented and was accepted by
citizens as a fair process, and one which would reduce hospitalizations and
fatal outcomes for those who are most susceptible.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="Body"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt;">So
when the Premier and Minister of health announced several weeks ago that
booster shots for those who were eligible would be available at pharmacies and
that the doses would be Moderna, I, along with the tens of thousands eligible
set forth to our pharmacies to arrange an appointment. The Premier said just
walk into a pharmacy and we would be given our boosters.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgKCYzpPu9NLefHpKuSEWFh-LPRbzqrqSum_N_8ApHw8KFCUjILPE76eJFSZTYZchxjesYEno1EOMOcZ9yYpd7PSkRu86nLdMWhTb9f6i7W4PazkYTTx1VDBRYxw3YAlN9cTqNjb2l3KeGP5JLqJxa_Oiz3QTAxUAswWGzJtqP_h_E3YeOAOziyE9Qk=s360" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="254" data-original-width="360" height="452" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgKCYzpPu9NLefHpKuSEWFh-LPRbzqrqSum_N_8ApHw8KFCUjILPE76eJFSZTYZchxjesYEno1EOMOcZ9yYpd7PSkRu86nLdMWhTb9f6i7W4PazkYTTx1VDBRYxw3YAlN9cTqNjb2l3KeGP5JLqJxa_Oiz3QTAxUAswWGzJtqP_h_E3YeOAOziyE9Qk=w640-h452" width="640" /></a></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; text-align: left;"><br /></span></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; text-align: left;">The
reality was different. My pharmacy, Lawton’s, told me that they had no vaccine
and didn’t expect to be in a position to even schedule appointments until mid
January. (I now understand that they expect to start scheduling appointments in
early January.) My pharmacist told me that the first they heard of their being
enlisted was on the news! It turns out that no one thought to engage the
Pharmacy Association before the announcement was made.</span></span></div><p></p><p class="Body"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt;">Well,
I thought, I’ll just ignore what the Premier and Minister of Health told me and
I went to the Get the Shot website to get an appointment. I went “booster
shopping”, to use the Health Minister’s hectoring phrase. Like most of the rest
of you all I saw was “no appointments available.”</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="Body"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt;">Being
relatively savvy on my IPad, I then went to the Shoppers website and, to my
surprise, it was a very good one and tells you which of their pharmacies have
the vaccine. So I made a call to one of them to make an appointment but was
told it was walk-in only. Despite seeing the lineups by my fellow seniors at
one of the other Shoppers stores we went to the one in Paradise which I had
been speaking to, fully expecting a long lineup. Seeing none, we went inside
and were told it was by appointment only, but would we like an appointment on
Boxing Day! Of course we would and got our boosters on December 26th, I’m
pleased to report.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="Body"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt;">While
some of my friends and family did manage to snag appointments at the government
website or at pharmacies, many haven’t. And I know of some who went as far as
Carbonear to get a shot. And we are putting health care workers through the
same process.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="Body"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt;">Our
experience with getting the flue shot was vastly different. There was a generic
website which allowed you to book the shot at your nearest pharmacy. It worked
well for us. Why Shoppers, as a national chain, doesn’t have a booking site, is
odd, but even more odd is<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>making seniors
stand out in the cold for hours in the hope of getting their booster. Why
anyone would think that was a good idea is beyond me.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="Body"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt;">I
also approached my family doctor, who I knew from past experience did flue
shots for his patents. The answer was that he had no vaccines.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="Body"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt;">In
recent days the Chief Medical Officer of Health has implored her colleagues to
participate in the vaccination effort. A bit late in the game I would have
thought. And I note the Dental Association has offered to help out, as they did
previously, with no response.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="Body"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt;">One
of my in-laws sent me a text a couple of days ago telling me that a mobile
vaccination clinic was making seemingly random visits to supermarket parking
lots.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="Body"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt;">And
then, to add insult to injury, I see the Premier administering booster shots at
the Confederation Building. The question is how exactly people were chosen to
jump the line. Retired public servants were said to be part of the 1000 people
vaccinated. I’m one of them, but nobody reached out to me! I<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>can’t imagine that the seniors who had to
lineup in the cold to get their booster shot are happy at this turn of events.
It should be seen for what it was - a photo opportunity for the Premier to be
seen in doctor mode.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="Body"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt;">And
now he’s off to Labrador to administer more boosters. May I remind him he’s
supposed to be the full-time Premier of the province and shouldn’t be
moonlighting. I’m pleased to see that<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>MHA Leila Evans has made the same point.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="Body"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt;">It
turns out that contrary to what the Minister of Health and Premier implied at
the time about easy access to booster shots at our local pharmacy, they didn’t
even have a supply! And then they changed the eligibility criteria from six
months to 24 weeks and then reduced it to 22 weeks. How crazy is that?</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="Body"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt;">What
should have happened?</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="Body"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt;">First
of all, we should have used the same priority system that had been established
by the first rollout of the first and second dose. This what our sister
jurisdiction, Nova Scotia has done. I heard Bob Cadigan on CBC radio making a
plaintive request through the airways for a booster shot for his daughter who
would have been looked after under the old system. There might be an argument
for giving priority to teachers so children could get back to school. A friend
of mine has sent me the booking system in Kingston. I went on line and it
showed lots of appointments available early in January at multiple places. They
know what they are doing and we don’t.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="Body"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt;">Secondly,
they should have been honest about their initial lack of supply rather the
sending us on a largely futile search for an appointment at a pharmacy.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="Body"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt;">Thirdly,
they should have enlisted family physicians, pharmacists, and dentists at an
early stage.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="Body"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt;">They
knew months ago who and how many and at what time people were eligible for the
booster but they did not prepare.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="Body"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt;">The
fault is not that of the front line workers, who have been working so hard over
almost two years. It is a management and ministerial failure.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="Body"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt;">The
evidence is that after twelve days the booster brings our immunity up and
improves outcomes. Given how contagious the variant is, time is of the essence.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="Body"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt;">This
has been badly mishandled. Whether it will have an impact on our hospital
system or individual citizens remains to be seen. If it doesn’t, it will be a
result of good luck not good management.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p><p class="Body"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEg8yYBsmAOe5K2xVLDzVHgaj7FVO7_-27XOHt9OYsPnz3tewerGj_txKoVzyuQl6gP0LP1VTHcYMk0kSUrtwSa5yJBT0GAtGf-dRnqlyPrUw_mQw_a2gZo20z39_zTajdBwfM4AnpYqTqNnj6ZVi-dT6B1enYs962wc0UZj09Gme3wVro-ULf-9EBhl=s800" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="532" data-original-width="800" height="426" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEg8yYBsmAOe5K2xVLDzVHgaj7FVO7_-27XOHt9OYsPnz3tewerGj_txKoVzyuQl6gP0LP1VTHcYMk0kSUrtwSa5yJBT0GAtGf-dRnqlyPrUw_mQw_a2gZo20z39_zTajdBwfM4AnpYqTqNnj6ZVi-dT6B1enYs962wc0UZj09Gme3wVro-ULf-9EBhl=w640-h426" width="640" /></a></div><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt;">And
why are we hoarding the rapid tests? Almost every other jurisdiction in Canada
is making them widely available and properly so. Given the demands on our
testing system, which will soon collapse, we need to use every tool at our
disposal to slow up the variant. There have been six hour lineups in Happy
Valley. The Minister says they have plenty of them. If so, use them there so
positive cases can be identified at least.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span><p></p>
<p class="Body"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt;">A
former Newfoundlander, Dr. Lisa Barrett, has led a successful effort in Nova
Scotia to administer rapid tests using volunteers, while ours gather dust.
Using them in schools might have allowed us to keep schools open rather than a
knee jerk reaction to close them, with all that means to our most vulnerable
group of students.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="Body"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt;">I
had attempted to register my complaints with senior officials at the Department
of Health but there is only a general email address for that Department, unlike
many other Departments where email addresses for their executive are listed. I
also managed to find the email address for the Chief Medical Officer of Health
and sent it to her. Needless to say there was no response or even an
acknowledgment from either.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="Body"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt;">I
know everyone is busy but I had a series of challenging jobs and no one could
ever say they didn’t get a timely response from me. The culture of the public
service has certainly changed and not for the best.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="Body"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt;">We
shouldn’t put up with this but we do. I was shocked when I listened to
interviews with those standing in line for their shot at their level of
acceptance of this poor treatment. We need to demand good public service, but
unless we do, nothing will change.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="Body"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt;">However,
I was pleased to hear a resident of Nain voicing criticism about the lack of
test kits there. The Minister of Health’s response was that he didn’t have a
crystal ball. It don’t take a crystal ball to know weeks ago that covid would
quickly reach our remote communities.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="Body"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt;">When
they announced earlier this week that there was a walk in clinic for us over
seventies on Monday and they would be giving priority to us I thought they were
starting to get themselves organized but no such luck. When I last looked on
Wednesday afternoon there were still no appointments available. It’s a totally
ad hoc process with no apparent plan. It’s a mess.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="Body"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt;">Good
luck in finding your booster shot and keeping covid at bay. Our shambolic
government hasn’t been much help. Your best bet is to monitor Peter Cowan’s and
the VOCM’s<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Twitter accounts to see when
appointments might be available. A sad commentary on the state of our
vaccination effort.<o:p></o:p></span></p>Des Sullivanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02566013585647491614noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-15211985222845586502022-01-03T08:54:00.001-03:302022-01-03T08:54:54.689-03:30PUBLIC SHOULD BE MORE WARY OF PREMIER FUREY IN 2022<p><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;">Premier Furey’s year-end declaration
that the “deficit must be tamed with broad action, not big bombshells” might
sound encouraging if only we could point to any plan, even a “broad” one. But
Furey has no such intention. He and his little band of insiders, Cabinet
passively looking on, are focused on the sale of NL’s most valuable strategic
assets. At any cost he isn’t prepared to impose on the Government — and the
public — spending practices that reflect the more responsible behaviours employed in other provinces.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">Following release of the
PERT Report of Moya Greene and her advisory committee in May 2021, Furey
commented that <span style="background: white; color: #212529;">“this is the
pivotal moment in our collective history… the problem is clearly laid out
before us. We are not on a sustainable path.” <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #212529; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">The statement reflected a fiscal circumstance which Greene defined as
total provincial debt obligations of $46.3 billion, an abominable figure in a place
occupied by only a half million people. Otherwise, the Government’s response
was silence. Moya returned to London to be heard from no more.<span></span></span></p><a name='more'></a><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #212529; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;"><o:p></o:p></span><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #212529; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">Eight months later — just a few days ago — the Government of Newfoundland
and Labrador told the American office of French banker Rothchild and Co. to “review
the province’s assets to determine their value and file a report in March.” The
study is not limited to the specific ones named in the PERT Report. Finance
Minister Coady’s press release acknowledged that “a</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Open Sans";">ll assets are
under the microscope” but that “the review will focus on the province's oil and
gas holdings, registries, the Newfoundland and Labrador Liquor Corporation and
Marble Mountain.”</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #212529; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #212529; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">No terms of reference were released. The amount of $5 million was
offered for the work, not a small sum for a three-month appraisal job, unless,
of course, large scale assets are being weighed.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Open Sans";">Consistent, too, with the way NL governments operate these days,
Minister Coady also stated that she wouldn't confirm the report would be made
public, due to the potential presence of “commercially sensitive
information.”<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Open Sans";">Now then, that’s scary. The Report has been Ed-Martin-ized
already!<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEj0sKikvVD5ybrZI8nNP1Zy6oQ3JDgNKyQg-eaottE8UUifcgNHZqNhEau2pLf4EWhLZRo9aChLLG-yiDeK7aHu7H2vZo04mfUCNaeBLM4yHZXIYQK5Jn-QjYG4CxbKxPMzNDXRew8QJfN4mcI-ZsOTkJb7hoZXgX_q-i8EYSRV-8NDnjBBgB3dX8tl=s1024" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="487" data-original-width="1024" height="304" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEj0sKikvVD5ybrZI8nNP1Zy6oQ3JDgNKyQg-eaottE8UUifcgNHZqNhEau2pLf4EWhLZRo9aChLLG-yiDeK7aHu7H2vZo04mfUCNaeBLM4yHZXIYQK5Jn-QjYG4CxbKxPMzNDXRew8QJfN4mcI-ZsOTkJb7hoZXgX_q-i8EYSRV-8NDnjBBgB3dX8tl=w640-h304" width="640" /></a></div><span style="background-color: white; color: #212529; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;">There is, however, more than secrecy that should worry us. To paraphrase
one senior government official: when an old banking establishment like
Rothchild, masquerading as a consultancy, is employed to value things like
Marble Mountain (an afternoon’s work for a local commercial appraiser) which
doesn’t even have the value of candelabra in a place of ill-repute, we might
wonder what has piqued the Government’s interest for the impending fire-sale.</span><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #212529; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">You don’t go to Rothchild for the small stuff — Marble Mountain, the
Liquor Stores. It isn’t the right entity to value our offshore oil interests.
More likely you are thinking Bay d’Espoir and the Upper Churchill… the stuff
that the ‘big boys’ are interested in: assets with big price tags, that attract
salivating lawyers and big fees, political insiders and middle-men, too, who would
sell their mothers as quickly as they would sell out the province.</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #212529; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">Incidentally, the other worry is that Government can get away with
it.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #212529; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">It is not as if the public is clamouring for Furey to act on fiscal
issues. Public contentment with his flat-footed predecessor,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">
Dwight Ball, and the Tories before him, is legendary. Ball is gone, but not due
to his failure to deal with the deficit as much as for an inability to be
either forthright or courageous — on any issue. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #212529; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">Indeed, all indications suggest that the public is happy with soothing
assurances that the Premier is a friend of the Prime Minister and that, as long
as this (perceptibly) cozy relationship is sustained, nothing will interfere
with NL’s spending practices.</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">The same public
contentment permeates Furey’s over-hyped, misunderstood, misrepresented and totally
inadequate “rate mitigation” plan for Muskrat Falls. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">Furey’s suggestion that
the “rate mitigation” deal with the Feds is the “highlight” of 2021 is actually
the farce of 2021 — except that very few people understand what the deal
represents.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">Political rhetoric may
mask genuine worry over NL’s debt spiral, but it is no cure for the deep-seated
financial issues experienced by this province. Eventually, the shortfall in
revenue required to finance and operate the Muskrat Falls Project will come to
the surface. The only question is how long it will take the bond rating
agencies, buoyed by the recent surge in the global price of oil, to tire of
NL’s long running hope-based strategy of fiscal repair? A fire sale will
assuage their anxiety.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">Moreover, Premier Furey is
not going to aggravate the electorate with layoffs and salary cuts or let
protest define his Administration. The worry is that, while he plays to
momentary public support, he is not paring but pairing. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">When some backbone would
reduce public expenditure and possibly stave off a financial debacle, he is
pairing corporate players and political hangers-on for a glutinous feast of NL
assets. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">And, by the way, this is a
table to which the great unwashed is not invited.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">The only safeguard the
public has against such an outcome is its own diligence, which should include a
constant demand for transparency. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">A less-sleepy public would
not let another consultant in its midst until the Government comes clean about
its intentions. Had the Government released any response to the PERT Report —
let alone an extensive one — we might be less apprehensive. They didn’t do
that.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">The need for good
governance is not an isolated requirement related to Nalcor. Neither is
transparency something to be demanded only after the billions are spent. The
public has a right to be informed all the time, most especially when matters are
being discussed that threaten the very destiny of the province. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">Even with our backs to the
fiscal wall, an informed public should expect its government to come clean with
exactly which public assets are up for sale and the policy implications —
rewards and costs — of what is on offer.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">I have one other worry. It
is that Premier Furey also subscribes to the Nalcor method of having
consultants write the script of Government’s instruction. If you are not sure
what this means, you haven’t read Judge Richard LeBlanc’s Report. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">As it stands, the public
is still in the thrall of “re-imagined” government — Furey’s phrase. It is an invention
of slick PR types with small ideas.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">My bet, however, is that
you will like those “small men and women” far more than the greasier ones with
far larger and more self-serving ideas. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">But, again, be warned: within
the paradigm of the carpetbaggers — large and small — there is no room for an
informed public.<o:p></o:p></span></p>Des Sullivanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02566013585647491614noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-56622734411429396642021-12-26T20:13:00.010-03:302021-12-26T20:25:12.099-03:30TOP TEN POSTS UNCLE GNARLEY BLOG 2021<p><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;">The annual ritual of presenting
the “Top Ten” posts of the year, based on Google’s counter, is repeated below.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">I owe a great deal of gratitude to
several writers, especially to Ron Penney and PlanetNL who, especially in the second half
of the year, kept the Blog going as I was otherwise engaged. Their ideas and analysis are widely acknowledged. This year David Vardy was
busy offering his vast skillset to Moya Greene and to the Premier’ Economic
Recovery Commission. The job done he continues to write; his latest
contribution is entitled “<a href="http://unclegnarley.blogspot.com/2021/11/muskrat-falls-unmitigated-disaster.html"><span style="color: red;">Muskrat Falls An Unmitigated Disaster</span></a>”. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">We welcomed a post from one new
contributor, Catherine Penney. We also mourned the loss of the Bard of Pynn’s
Brook, John Tuach; we will miss his poetry and the enormous insights that he inscribed
in each turn of phrase. <span></span></span></p><a name='more'></a><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">Most of us are happy to
see the end of 2021. Covid-19 remains a scourge robbing us of a quick return to
some semblance of normalcy. Our collective sanity is threatened thereby, not
least because Covid is a distraction that removes oxygen from places where
discussion of NL’s economic, social and political deficits ought to be
paramount. That “the doctor is in” represents occasional drama but little comfort.
But those issues are for later. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">There are several days left in
the Christmas Season, more turkey to be devoured and, yes, mountains of “hash”
to be consumed. Even Uncle Gnarley rang up threatening a visit. I fear that our
rest will be short lived! </span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;">Merry Christmas – Des Sullivan </span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgQ5Y0yQgC9T-Fc1Qa1nS34R2dGb0Q2CMEk4X668qybfU5jeSSdYtX7cMlL_9K8edibs7aDqBApyGcKkWZSUUuGYHKI-p-hfkSEeArpDM6lbBe7Q2B8M8tvPq-0syHxZTRsvrBzoWY6JUb9JlML82kSjNHL1MsmSwrGVpyQSaJ8EIJ9-c1kLgvzQvcH=s322" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="322" data-original-width="322" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgQ5Y0yQgC9T-Fc1Qa1nS34R2dGb0Q2CMEk4X668qybfU5jeSSdYtX7cMlL_9K8edibs7aDqBApyGcKkWZSUUuGYHKI-p-hfkSEeArpDM6lbBe7Q2B8M8tvPq-0syHxZTRsvrBzoWY6JUb9JlML82kSjNHL1MsmSwrGVpyQSaJ8EIJ9-c1kLgvzQvcH=w640-h640" width="640" /></a></div><span style="font-size: x-large;">TOP TEN POSTS 2021</span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">1. <a href="https://www.blogger.com/blog/post/edit/5235138415013046381/5662273441142939664" style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"><span style="color: red;">LEADERS' DEBATE CONFIRMS ELECTION AFTERMATH</span></a></span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">2. </span><span style="background: white; color: red; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"><a href="http://unclegnarley.blogspot.com/2021/02/more-incidents-on-lil-pile-on-costs-and.html"><span style="color: red;">MORE "INCIDENTS" ON LIL PILE ON COSTS AND POWER
INSECURITY</span></a></span><span style="color: red; font-size: 13.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><h3 style="background: white; margin-bottom: 0in; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 9.0pt; margin: 9pt 0in 0in; mso-collapsed-heading: yes;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium; font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: #222222;">3. </span><a href="http://unclegnarley.blogspot.com/2021/05/the-big-reset-time-to-wake-up-time-to.html"><span style="color: red;">THE "BIG
RESET": TIME TO WAKE UP. TIME TO ACT.</span></a><span style="color: #222222;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></h3><div><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">4. <a href="http://unclegnarley.blogspot.com/2021/01/ice-damage-to-8-towers-on-lil.html"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: red;">ICE DAMAGE TO 8 TOWERS ON THE LIL; NALCOR/POLITICIANS QUIET</span></a></span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">5. <span style="background-color: white;"><a href="http://unclegnarley.blogspot.com/2021/02/the-variant-and-election-throwing-chief.html"><span style="color: red;">The Variant and the Election: throwing the Chief Electoral Officer under the bus. </span></a></span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"> Guest Post by Ron Penney</span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">6. <span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: red;"><a href="http://unclegnarley.blogspot.com/2021/03/ron-penney-challenges-sale-of-mile-one.html"><span style="color: red;">RON PENNEY CHALLENGES THE SALE OF MILE ONE</span></a> </span></span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222;"> Guest Post by Ron Penney</span></span></div><p><span style="font-family: georgia;"><span style="font-size: medium;">7. </span><span style="background-color: white;"><a href="http://unclegnarley.blogspot.com/2021/06/the-hard-truth-about-value-of-muskrat.html"><span style="color: red;">THE HARD TRUTH ABOUT THE VALUE OF THE MUSKRAT FALLS </span></a></span></span><span style="color: red;"><a href="http://unclegnarley.blogspot.com/2021/06/the-hard-truth-about-value-of-muskrat.html" style="font-family: georgia;"><span style="color: red;">PROJECT</span> </a><span style="background-color: white; font-family: georgia;"> </span></span></p><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"> Guest Post by PlanetNL</span></span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;"><span style="font-size: medium;">8. </span></span><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"></span><a href="https://www.blogger.com/blog/post/edit/5235138415013046381/5662273441142939664" style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"><span style="color: red;">THE DECALOGUE: THE TEN COMMANDMENTS FOR RATE</span></a><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span><a href="http://unclegnarley.blogspot.com/2021/06/david-vardys-ten-commandments-for-rate.html " style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"><span style="color: red;">MITIGATION</span></a></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><b> </b>Guest Post by David Vardy</span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">9. <span style="background-color: white;"><a href="http://unclegnarley.blogspot.com/2021/05/self-reliance-or-commission-of.html"><span style="color: red;">Self reliance or Commission of Government? The choice is ours. </span></a></span></span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222;"> Guest Post by Ron Penney</span></span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">10. </span><span style="background-color: white;"><a href="http://unclegnarley.blogspot.com/2021/10/danny-williams-bottom-feeders-and.html"><span style="color: red;">DANNY WILLIAMS: Bottom Feeders and Naysayers</span></a><span style="color: #222222;"> </span></span></span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222;"> Guest Post by Ron Penney</span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><br /></p><p style="text-align: center;">- 30 - </p>
<p><br /></p><h3 style="background: white; margin-bottom: 0in; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 9.0pt; margin: 9pt 0in 0in;"><br /></h3>Des Sullivanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02566013585647491614noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-28518710086991255832021-12-20T07:43:00.000-03:302021-12-20T07:43:24.329-03:30MUSKRAT FALLS: The Millstone Reaches A Major Milestone<p><span style="line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><b>Guest Post by PlanetNL</b></span></span></p><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><b><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 14pt;">PlanetNL41: The Millstone Reaches A
Major Milestone</span></b><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 14pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;">
</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><b><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 14pt;">PPA Payments Commenced; Capital Cost
Understated; 2022 May Get Rough</span></b><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 14pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">A <a href="https://www.blogger.com/blog/post/edit/5235138415013046381/2851871008699125583"><span style="color: red;">letter sent to the Public Utilities Board from NL Hydro</span></a> on
November 25, 2021 contains sobering news about an important milestone. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">It reported that all four turbines at
the Muskrat Falls (MF) hydro generation have passed their initial run-in tests
resulting in the plant being considered fully commissioned and
in-service. Ditto for the Labrador Transmission Asset (LTA), the new
HVAC line that connects Muskrat to Churchill Falls. With completion of the
construction phase for these two major assets, payment is now due for their
operation. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">Is this happy news or grim
news? If you’re a ratepayer expected to pay off this unneeded
megaproject, likely forced to spend way more on your electricity costs, maybe
mad as hell is a more apt feeling. <span></span></span></p><a name='more'></a><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><b><span style="color: black; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">MF and LTA Will More than Double
Ratepayer Costs</span></b><span style="color: black; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">According to the terms of the Muskrat
Falls Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) signed off at sanction, the MF and LTA
assets are now payable by NL Hydro with cost recovery due solely from Island
ratepayers. On behalf of those ratepayers, Hydro made immediate and
unspecified payments on November 25 to initiate the PPA’s 50-year repayment
period. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">Based on Hydro’s mid-2020 update of cashflow
estimates for MF and LTA payments, the amounts due begin at almost $35M per
month. That figure escalates by more than 500% over 50 years mainly
because Government’s return on equity (ROE) is to be very slowly phased in
during the payback period. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">Why do the MF and LTA costs increase so
much, you may ask? Deferred ROE is added to the original equity
contributions and the sum is compounded at a rate of 8.4% annually as per the
PPA. The phase-in of ROE payout is so slow that for about 30 years,
there will be more interest accrued in the account than is paid
out. Based on current estimates, Government’s equity account likely
swells by an extra $10B (at about year 30) before payouts rise enough to exceed
the interest cost. According to the PPA, Hydro must pay the works
and Hydro’s main revenue source is the ratepayers. The average
monthly amount due over the 50-year PPA is in the vicinity of $90M. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">The yet to be approved rate mitigation
measures will decrease this somewhat but the final figures are not terribly
clear. The creation of $2.0B in Government preferred shares yielding
3% interest payments increases cost by $5M per month immediately but it
mitigates a large part of the long term PPA escalation. Furthermore,
with return on equity during construction reset to zero (more on that later in
this post), another major source of cost escalation is averted. The
average payment due is likely to be over $60M per month but Hydro is yet to
verify with their own updated projections.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">For reference, ratepayers currently pay
about $60M per month to fully sustain both Hydro and Newfoundland
Power. This figure appears set to double in order to pay for MF and
LTA, even with the significant rate mitigation concessions on equity return.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgKfNCwxeqLXihpel3GIWpdsBSdlsLKfDdT_RKw4D7rp8_snYm3D3ZcYI-ztXSHR0Zs_ipoPYGyqu2wnezkhT-Xva-VFDk2PS1Rb35u1PmJF4v_EHvzrsWzS6PyDzKS-xwfhAXQXbRxZ7xiRe5I9hX0qsxMgmet7_NNGcuxAwYRXqcvf7Q9gLwW7GzR=s800" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="535" data-original-width="800" height="428" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgKfNCwxeqLXihpel3GIWpdsBSdlsLKfDdT_RKw4D7rp8_snYm3D3ZcYI-ztXSHR0Zs_ipoPYGyqu2wnezkhT-Xva-VFDk2PS1Rb35u1PmJF4v_EHvzrsWzS6PyDzKS-xwfhAXQXbRxZ7xiRe5I9hX0qsxMgmet7_NNGcuxAwYRXqcvf7Q9gLwW7GzR=w640-h428" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">WHO IS SMILING NOW?</td></tr></tbody></table><b><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;">LIL Cost Impact Yet to Arrive</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">The Labrador Island Link HVDC
transmission will add another large dollop of costs. Until very
recently, Hydro had expected full commissioning and completion of the LIL at
much the same time as MF and LTA. Several years ago, Hydro even
thought the LIL may be completed a couple of years ahead of the generation side
of the project but the last few percent of effort to achieve completion have
remained elusive and riddled with problems. Hydro is now saying
March 31, 2022 is their probable completion date but the track record on LIL
suggests much more time will be needed. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">The LIL Payments were previously
forecast at almost $35M per month but with some additional delay charges, it
will surely exceed that level. Of the proposed rate mitigation
measures, none are direct concessions to the way LIL is costed unlike the
reductions to ROE proposed for MF and LTA. Hydro, and hence the
ratepayers, are responsible for the full ticket on the LIL.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><b><span style="color: black; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">Rate Mitigation Proposal Still Doesn’t
Add Up</span></b><span style="color: black; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">The only other meaningful rate
mitigation measures are those of indirect subsidy and
desperation. The transfer of Hibernia revenues, forecasted to be an
average of $10M per month over 26 years (not 50) is merely a
subsidy. It may be 50% higher in the first few years but will tail
off as time goes on and Hibernia production levels decrease. The
creation of a new $1B loan to help make the minimum payments is like giving a
drunk some money to buy more booze just to keep them quiet – you can guess what
happens when that is gone. At an average of $10M per month, this
loan will be exhausted in about 8 years.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">Fuel savings at Holyrood and new energy
exports will probably affect the required revenues by about $10M per
month. Government and Hydro are probably estimating more for that
but they are only fooling themselves. The proposed rate increase of
1.1 c/KWh will generate about $5M per month.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">The last act of desperation, in
defiance of accounting standards, is to remove depreciation as a normal cost of
business. Depreciation normally aligns with the paying off of
financed assets, however, as the rate mitigation proposal includes deferral of
bond repayments and sinking funds to June 2029, and as ROE payments on MF and
LTA will be little to nothing during that same period, Government appears to be
asking Hydro to bend conventional accounting standards to ignore depreciation
costs for a few years. If so, the interim benefit to reducing
required revenue will be about $20M per month.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">To recap, there appears to be about
$40M per month in MF and LTA costs already due inclusive of direct mitigation
measures and sooner or later another $35M due for the LIL. Indirect
subsidies and questionable accounting treatment, mostly of a temporary nature,
may offset $60M of those costs for a few years. There appears to be
a minimum $15M per month revenue deficit and the amount is only likely to grow.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">This can mean only one
thing. Get ready for Rate Mitigation Plan 2<sup>nd</sup> Edition
in another year or two, leading up to the next election. It will
have to deal with the growing deficit in required revenues, and the diminishing
usefulness of several of the short-term original rate mitigation
measures. Another significant rate increase appears inevitable.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><b><span style="color: black; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">Understated Final Project Capital Cost</span></b><span style="color: black; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">For the past year or so, Hydro has said
that the project will come in at $13.1B. The breakdown of that is
$6.7B for the Muskrat Falls generation site, $1.1B for the LTA, and $5.3B for
the LIL.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">With ongoing delays, the LIL cost is
sure to go beyond the $5.3B figure that was a Fall 2021 completion
target. Additional capital is being spent every month if only on
sustaining general operations and maintenance but the problems surely imply
spending beyond just that. In addition, the equity interests of
Emera and the Province are accruing 8.5% annual interest in lieu of delayed
payouts. That equity now totals about $1.9B as of last month so the
ongoing accruals alone will add over $13M per month.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">Ballparking $0.1B in extra capital cost
per quarter seems a reasonable estimate for the ongoing delay. Given
the very slow progress apparent in reports from Hydro and Liberty Consultants,
the latter monitoring it for the PUB, a full year of delay is not
improbable. That would increase official capital cost by
$0.4B. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">The word “official” in the last
sentence is quite deliberate because Hydro and Government have said there is no
equivalent equity capital appreciation in the MF and LTA side of the
project. This has always been a strange approach that has undervalued
the capital cost of the project. It is dubious and creative accounting - one
more instance of voodoo economics! <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">The capitalization of return on equity
during construction until payouts commence is standard practice in virtually
all project financial structures. Without properly assessing and
including it, target return levels cannot be achieved.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">Hydro and Government have been engaged
in a charade flaunting conventional standards for financial
structure. It’s known that the full return on equity during construction
has been included in the original PPA payment schedule design. Yet
they would not include it as an obvious capital cost. Hydro and
Government wanted to eat their cake and keep it for later too. The
benefit of doing so is that it allowed them to make the capital cost of the
project “officially” smaller than it truly should be.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">Now that the project has reached the
end of construction, it is possible to estimate the extent of the missing
interest charges. A couple of methods were used that arrived
at essentially the same number: roughly $1.5B is missing from the capital cost.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">By normal project finance standards,
the properly stated capital cost of the project is considerably higher than
current Hydro official figure of $13.1B. With another year of
ongoing LIL overruns and conventional financial treatment of accrued equity
during construction for MF and LTA, the expected proper figure for total
project capital cost ought to be $15B. Should the Astaldi contract
dispute end with a substantial payout to the Italian firm, tack that on too.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><b><span style="color: black; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">Bond Ratings in 2022 Could Go South</span></b><span style="color: black; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">It’s important to acknowledge that the
rate mitigation plan to reset return on equity during construction to zero will
make this hidden $1.5B capital cost go away which is good for
ratepayers. So why bring it up now?<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">One reason is that the true capital
cost when applying regular project economics and not voodoo economics, and
before any mitigation measures are applied, is $15B or more. That is
what the history books should say. The current method of valuing the
project was and remains disingenuous.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="background: white; color: black; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">Another key reason is
that the proposed reset action on the timing of return on equity from sanction
in December 2012 to completion in November 2021 needs to be recognized for what
it is: a $1.5B equity write-off. Government intends to fully forego
payback and future returns on the 9 years of return on equity accrued during
construction to which it was entitled in the PPA. </span><span style="color: black; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">Furthermore, by converting $2B of the
equity to preferred shares with a 3% yield, Government has committed to take a
much lesser return on investment. Putting the two measures together
is the same as saying that as of November 25, 2021, Government has reduced it’s
required ROE from 8.4% to 3.6%. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">The revised ROE of 3.6% would barely
cover the bond interest cost on Government’s $3.4B in direct equity
contributions for MF and LTA. However, a large part of that revised
ROE income is deferred many years into the future and should be considered at
very high risk of never being received at all. Only $60M, from the
$2B in equity converted to preferred shares, can be counted upon to be
received. $60M on $3.4B results in an effective ROE rate of just
1.8%. The other 1.8% is pinned on hope and a prayer.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">The effective write-off and drastic
reduction in ROE is sure to be seriously evaluated by the bond rating agencies
next year. Up to now the bond raters have been speculative and
largely given the benefit of the doubt that Government’s bonds will have
reliable cash flows coming to them. That soft view was easy when
project completion always seemed at least a year away. They can’t do
that anymore.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">Now that the payment phase on MF and
LTA has begun and ROE is being officially slashed, the agencies will have to
get serious in examining the situation for what it is. With so much
left to be proven regarding the viability of the project and whether all of the
financial obligations can be met, they could very well react negatively and
lower the Province’s credit rating.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">Should that occur, the pressure on
Government to raise electricity rates to eliminate any deficit in Hydro
revenues and to prop up cash flows to Government will be
immense. Failure to do so would almost certainly lead to further
credit rating reductions.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">There is undoubtedly potential for
plenty more grim news for both ratepayers and taxpayers in 2022 as the true
burden of Muskrat costs are revealed and Government walks a dangerous highwire
of difficult to support debt with no safety net other than ratepayers’ and taxpayers’
pockets.</span></p><p></p>Des Sullivanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02566013585647491614noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-30356237537128805362021-12-06T07:44:00.001-03:302021-12-06T07:44:26.835-03:30NALCOR GONE IN NAME ONLY<p><b><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-size: large;">Guest Post by PlanetNL</span></span></b></p><p><b><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">PlanetNL40: Nalcor Gone in Name Only</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Misrepresentation of Fact Still A Problem <o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;">After the Commission of Inquiry into the Muskrat Falls Project,
ratepayers and the public at large might have reasonably hoped and expected
that the Utility would change its stripes and try straightforward honest truth
for a change.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;">Apparently, it is a tough
ask.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">The recent changes to restructure the Executive ranks and the
elimination of the Nalcor side of the business brought a glimmer of hope for
real change.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The signals are already
there, however, that not much will change in how the utility interacts with the
public regarding Muskrat Falls and anything connected to it.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Which just happens to be almost everything
they do.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> <span></span></span></p><a name='more'></a><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">After deeply exposing the readily apparent fraud of a project
and the rot within the Executive ranks, the Liberal Government elected in 2015 should
have demanded a total renewal of leadership.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>The organization needed to do a 180-degree turn from spouting lies and
propaganda to becoming one that would be sworn to absolute brutal honesty going
forward.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">The Liberal Government should also have ordered Nalcor to pause
or slow the project to re-evaluate the project’s economic merit knowing that
the sunk costs would likely have been less than the cost of finishing it.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">After those steps, they should have called the Commission of
Inquiry.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The Liberal Government did none
of that.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Instead, they passively allowed Ed Martin to quit as CEO, replaced
him with Liberal-friend Stan Marshall and merely had him try to stabilize
things, keeping virtually all of Martin’s team in place, and carrying on with
the project without any proper reconsideration of alternatives.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">After waffling on for two full years, only after public
criticism mounted against them. the Liberals called for the Inquiry.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>That allowed roughly another two years to
lapse in which they again did practically nothing but see the project other
than allow the project to continue on.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Finally in July of this year, the Liberals presented their long
awaited rate mitigation plan.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It will
bury the ratepayer in additional debt and promises to raise rates for 50 years.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Now there was a winner of a plan worth
waiting for.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Despite Muskrat being the largest policy bungle in the history
of the Province (and likely all of Canada), the now 6-years old Liberal Government
has let the project play itself out in disturbingly slow motion.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Despite the need for change at the Utility,
they’ve changed fewer lead characters than Coronation Street.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The retirement of Stan Marshall earlier this
year has finally allowed the cast to be tightened up somewhat although at least
a couple of the flawed characters exposed in the Inquiry were allowed to remain.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">The reduction of executives last month, from a bloated eighteen
down to eleven, was certainly long overdue and more in line with other
comparable utilities.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>That two core
players from the era of intense Muskrat deception, however, survived this
executive restructuring is stunning and damning.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Is there honestly no one else of reasonable
competency to promote from within the ranks or that might have been sought from
outside the organization?<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"></span></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhw1zUNmUMwQQD4nUMRPqCTYaykOqQf6gYQzIRBLHr_MlE4wE6MyyHlLmyTbNax2yMd60ccryC958NKbsNM__p0uYxnpNcOsFfx-yE-_KJPhwRt8CZ22Wihmkeut50fU5DRogXzUlaCJmdRp5I7ozkWR_V6PjlxxfIBAa08k7PAYDH_aGv1QocPZtFE=s780" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="439" data-original-width="780" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhw1zUNmUMwQQD4nUMRPqCTYaykOqQf6gYQzIRBLHr_MlE4wE6MyyHlLmyTbNax2yMd60ccryC958NKbsNM__p0uYxnpNcOsFfx-yE-_KJPhwRt8CZ22Wihmkeut50fU5DRogXzUlaCJmdRp5I7ozkWR_V6PjlxxfIBAa08k7PAYDH_aGv1QocPZtFE=w640-h360" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Jennifer Williams, NL Hydro CEO</td></tr></tbody></table><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"><br />That decision by the new CEO, promoted in June of this year,
<a href="https://nlhydro.com/about-hydro/leadership-team/"><span style="color: red;">Jennifer Williams</span></a> surely had to have been run past the Board of Directors and Government before
being finalized.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Such deliberate
compromise is the mark of subservience to political power.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Shame on them.<o:p></o:p></span><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">If that is how it happened, Williams is something less than an
independent clear-minded CEO, than an actor on a short leash, limited to
addressing talking points delivered by her political overlords.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Further problematic evidence of this was delivered by Williams
and her team in a press conference last week.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">In this <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/muskrat-falls-generating-station-1.6266689"><span style="color: red;">CBC News story</span></a>,
the following information appears:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<div style="background: white; border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-element: para-border-div; padding: 1pt 4pt;">
<p style="background: white; border: none; margin-bottom: 21.0pt; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm; margin: 0cm 0cm 21pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-padding-alt: 1.0pt 4.0pt 1.0pt 4.0pt; padding: 0cm;"><i><span style="color: #222222; font-family: "Georgia",serif; mso-bidi-font-family: "Open Sans";">During a
technical briefing, representatives from N.L. Hydro said the province gets
about 30 per cent of its power from the Holyrood power plant, and about $200
million is typically spent on fuel annually, depending on the price of
oil. <o:p></o:p></span></i></p>
<p style="background: white; border: none; margin-bottom: 21.0pt; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm; margin: 0cm 0cm 21pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-padding-alt: 1.0pt 4.0pt 1.0pt 4.0pt; padding: 0cm;"><i><span style="color: #222222; font-family: "Georgia",serif; mso-bidi-font-family: "Open Sans";">When running at
its peak during winter, the plant burns about 18,000 barrels of oil daily.<o:p></o:p></span></i></p>
</div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">The key figures cited here were for public information and therefore
should be simple indisputable facts.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Instead, they are way actually off base are intended to mislead the
public.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Williams is using the old Nalcor
playbook to distort the facts as necessary to please Government.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Williams should have relied on clear facts from recent Nalcor
Financial Statements and not been afraid to interpret the trends readily
apparent in the data.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Let’s break them down.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Firstly, the assertion that the province gets 30% of its power
from Holyrood is not correct.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Holyrood at
full output represents about 19% of the total pre-Muskrat combined Labrador
Interconnected System and the Island Interconnected System (IIS).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Remove Labrador and Holyrood is a maximum 24%
part of the IIS capacity.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>As 20MW or
more is used at the plant itself, the net contribution to the grid reduces
those figures by 1%.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Rounding up the Holyrood
maximum capacity, to 30%, is reckless abuse of the facts.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">In discussing “typical” usage, when the remainder of the grid
is working properly, Holyrood seldom runs all 3 generating units at full
power.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Normally 1 or 2 units can handle
the daily winter load fluctuations and the third unit is either not on at all
or is simply on at a reduced level just as reserve.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In recent years, even that has become scarce
with only a limited number of high-load winter days (and just hours within
those days) when Holyrood is called upon to deliver more than 15% of the total
IIS load.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>That condition exists for just
the period of December to March and it appears set to continue to shrink.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Likewise, Holyrood’s share of energy production for the IIS is
as equally important as looking at its share of power capacity.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In 2020, Holyrood produced just 14% of total
IIS energy consumption.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It was only 1-2%
higher in 2019 and 2018.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In the first
half of 2021 there is an even sharper downward trend with Holyrood output down
to ¾ of the same period in 2020.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>While
that is partially due to the refinery being warm-idled and some general
Covid-19 loss of demand, we can be confident that even if those issues did not
exist, Holyrood would still be delivering less than 14% of IIS energy.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Just in case CBC misunderstood power and energy (as many do) in
preparing their article, any inference that Holyrood represents 30% of either is
tremendously misleading.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">The matter of fuel typically costing $200M is also way off
base.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The 2020 Annual Report shows last
year’s No.6 fuel cost was $143M.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It was
$151M in 2018 and $196M in 2019.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It
exceeded $200M only in a few prior years but this was when other system constraints
existed that forced Holyrood to work harder.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Hydro spent hundreds of millions to fix those transmission constraints
and a key benefit is less reliance on Holyrood.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>With those constraints removed and demand having clearly fallen in 2020
and 2021, making reference to typical costs of $200M is purely a matter of deliberately
misrepresenting present-day reality.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">In the first half of 2021, not only is fuel consumption down
by 25% but the average price of fuel decreased by 16%, yielding a $38M reduction
in cost year-over-year.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If fuel costs in
the second half of 2021 were to rebound to the same as 2020, the total 2021
fuel cost projection would be about $105M. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Since when does an expected cost of about
$105M justify telling the public it would be $200M?<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Finally, the bit about Holyrood burning 18,000 barrels of fuel
per day is a very atypical number to quote.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>If the plant had to run all three generating units at full power for 24
hours, then that indeed would be the expected fuel consumption but it happens
so infrequently it just isn’t a material fact.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>It’s a condition that becomes material only if there is a lengthy and a major
IIS generation or transmission outage forces Holyrood into flat out 100% operation
for days on end.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>That is a rare and unexpected
contingency event.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Only true “typical” numbers based on real data should be
presented such as how the plant consumed 1.7 million barrels of fuel in 2020.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Dividing by 365 days, that’s an average of just
under 4700 barrels per day or 26% of the peak rate Hydro chose to quote in
their press conference.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>As the plant is
running only about half the year, the average through the operating season is
in the ballpark of 9000 barrels per day, 50% of peak rate.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Keep in mind that in the first half of 2021,
consumption was well down from that level.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Many of us will spend much more time watching a single Netflix series in
January than the plant will run at full power.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Why is Hydro presenting their alternative atypical facts and
trying to pass them off as typical?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Because the enormously expensive Muskrat Falls is the elephant
in the room. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It took a lot of
distortions and lies to create Muskrat and it will take a bunch more to pass
off Muskrat as a viable part of the utility system going forward.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Fundamentally, all Hydro can do is attempt to
play up the one good thing Muskrat might do which is reduce Holyrood fuel costs.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Presenting badly skewed numbers is a tactic we had hoped was a
thing of the past.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Clearly the new Hydro
is turning out to be not that different from the old Nalcor.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Instead of hyping irrelevant numbers to the public, Williams
could have simply said that based on the cost trends in recent years and their
plan to use Holyrood at lower capacity levels and for a shorter season than
ever before, and if a steady supply of Muskrat energy is maintained, fuel
consumption at Holyrood may drop by up to 60%, or one million barrels, for cost
savings in the vicinity of $70M. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The
number for the long term will be the same as either Holyrood must continue
operations to maintain reliability on the Avalon Peninsula or a new set of gas
turbines must replace it.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">It certainly looks like it will be a long wait before Hydro will
make such a clear statement.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The Hydro
Executive mandate remains to shamelessly exaggerate Muskrat benefits and play
down its impossible costs.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">These latest abuses of fact show prove that it’s déjà vu all
over again.<o:p></o:p></span></p>Des Sullivanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02566013585647491614noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-45922031938361043552021-11-08T07:12:00.000-03:302021-11-08T07:12:05.040-03:30MUSKRAT FALLS AN UNMITIGATED DISASTER<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 18pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">Guest Post by David Vardy</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 18pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;">Recent news reports have disclosed that the November 26, 2021
completion date for Muskrat Falls will not be achieved. No target completion
date has been set. Yet the project continues to accumulate costs. A recent
Tweet put the daily cost of the delay at $1 million a day. This is an
understatement. What is the daily cost, both in total and on a per capita
basis?<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 18pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;">In this post we set out the bare facts of the unmitigated and
misguided Muskrat Falls project, its costs, without rate mitigation, and how
they compare with the cost of Holyrood-generated energy, for which Muskrat
Falls was intended to offer a less costly solution. We will also look at how
unit energy costs for power sold to Emera compare with the costs imposed by the
power purchase agreement on local ratepayers. We will show how the project was
a misguided, mistaken choice, and how, through the power purchase agreement, it
places an unsustainable burden on ratepayers.<span></span></span></p><a name='more'></a><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 18pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;">The actual cost of servicing the debt, not the repayment of
principal and not the operation of the facilities, just the interest and cost
of equity, will amount to $770 million a year. This amounts to $2.1 million a
day.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 18pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;">What will be the full cost of the project, including principal
repayment and operating expenses, in the first full year of operation? How much
will the cost of our Island interconnected system rise in the transition from
an isolated island to an interconnected island system including Muskrat Falls?
How much additional cost will be incurred?<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 18pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;">First, let us look at the system without Muskrat Falls, before the
beginning of commercial operations of the project. System cost, including Hydro
and Newfoundland Power is currently running at about $750 million. This
includes the fuel burned at Holyrood.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhtK2xp_S49SJ3vqSLwPttoaQaDwr_tdgUZ6RjTPUGfFcSGwItJUv4dqK8GDI32rwaU0K_XT2m8oLS-pPxmwNBs1Zat1XZPnbKdInRFa3fb2_DkhsJxzAv9u-Go37T8ITJV5zIO21Wh4d8/s639/Muskrat+August+2019.1.JPG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="342" data-original-width="639" height="342" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhtK2xp_S49SJ3vqSLwPttoaQaDwr_tdgUZ6RjTPUGfFcSGwItJUv4dqK8GDI32rwaU0K_XT2m8oLS-pPxmwNBs1Zat1XZPnbKdInRFa3fb2_DkhsJxzAv9u-Go37T8ITJV5zIO21Wh4d8/w640-h342/Muskrat+August+2019.1.JPG" width="640" /></a></div><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;">Second,
after Muskrat Falls comes on stream what will be the full system cost, taking
account of fuel savings, estimated at $178 million? The answer is $1.7 billion.
Once export of surplus power has been netted out, estimated at $50 million, we
arrive at a full system cost of $1.65 billion, taking full account of interest
payments, the cost of equity capital and the return of principal.</span><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 18pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;">Comparing the post-Muskrat Falls cost of $1.65 billion with the
pre-Muskrat Falls cost of $750 we derive an estimate of net incremental cost,
without rate mitigation, of $900 million. This works out at $2.5 million daily
or $5 daily for every citizen.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 18pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;">Remember that Muskrat Falls was intended to replace the Holyrood
thermal plant. Over the past five years the average production at Holyrood has
been 1.3 TWh, which corresponds to the amount of Muskrat Falls power which will
be needed to supply the needs of the Island. GNL estimated that the cost of
Holyrood fuel would be $178 million or 14 cents/KWh. This works out to $1 daily
for every citizen.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 18pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;">When we look at NP’s recent application to the PUB for a rate
increase, we find they are projecting a decline in sales over the next few
years. The surging demand for power on which the case for Muskrat Falls was
built has not materialized. Electrification of transportation may increase the
demand for power, but this will take time. In the meantime, we have few options
other than to export the power or sell it to crypto-currency miners.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 18pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;">We have committed 0.986 TWh of energy for 35 years to Emera with
no revenues, no energy charge, to recover the enormous costs we must bear. For
the next five years there is an additional 240 GWh which must be supplied, with
no revenues, no energy charge. Then there is an average of 1.2 TWh annually
which we must supply at market rates. On top of this, if the power is not
reliable and we cannot supply power from Muskrat Falls we must buy energy in
order to supply Emera, to meet our contractual obligations, thereby fully
absorbing the risk to Emera.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 18pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;">The net energy from the project is 4,641 GWh, of which 2.426 GWh
is committed to Nova Scotia and 1.324 TWh will be used to replace Holyrood.
Revenue-producing exports will be about 2.1 TWh which is unlikely to generate
more than $50 million, net of transmission charges.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 18pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;">The $900 million cost for the 1.324 TWh which the project will
supply to replace Holyrood will be 67 cents/KWh, compared with 14 cents/KWh for
Holyrood. The daily cost will be $2.5 million. Muskrat Falls will demand a
daily cost per person of $5, compared with $1 dollar for Holyrood.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 18pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;">The Public Accounts disclosed that the deficit for the 2020-21
fiscal year was $1.5 billion. This amounts to $8 per day for each citizen. At
$5 per citizen per day Muskrat Falls is a large component of the province’s
fiscal dilemma. We do have flexibility to manage our fiscal deficit but the
Muskrat Falls shortfall is locked in for 50 years, by virtue of the power
purchase agreement. The PPA can only be changed through negotiations with the
GOC on rate mitigation.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 18pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;">Muskrat Falls was not the best alternative to Holyrood. The best
alternative would have involved a combination of energy initiatives, the most
important of which would have been efficient pricing of electricity. Instead of
promoting electric space heating the province should have charged a rate higher
than the average cost of power production, one which reflected the higher
marginal cost of thermal power. This would have modulated the massive switch to
electric space heating which exacerbated the winter peak in demand. People
would have found more efficient ways to heat their homes if thermal power had
not been cross subsidized by low-cost power from Bay D’Espoir and other hydro
sources on the Island.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 18pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;">Efficient pricing of electricity, combined with conservation and
demand-side-management, would have enabled baseload supply of power to be
supplied from our on-Island sources, with Holyrood used mostly for emergency
power. Instead, we embarked on an oversized, overpriced, megaproject which will
continue to require a large block of emergency power located on the Avalon
Peninsula. It was never a choice between Muskrat Falls and Holyrood because of
the need for a back-up emergency supply. We will continue to need Holyrood or a
replacement thermal plant not too far away from the main population centre.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 18pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"></span></p><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiXnquoo5gmOBZ9Jo3TwLeMQZDaqkSPJ0eo9O_-wauG9mFcpD2Zxuuth6FUJDz-C0LETkaUQZYEAWl3_rjRFOrtBAYih4KqS7WfSi6HBxQKuCA_0QDlGCs5XvRxy9qSQ4YR-KrvOG-jw3M/s320/david-vardy-muskrat-falls-concerned-citizens-coalition-mfccc_1_orig.jpg" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="320" data-original-width="240" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiXnquoo5gmOBZ9Jo3TwLeMQZDaqkSPJ0eo9O_-wauG9mFcpD2Zxuuth6FUJDz-C0LETkaUQZYEAWl3_rjRFOrtBAYih4KqS7WfSi6HBxQKuCA_0QDlGCs5XvRxy9qSQ4YR-KrvOG-jw3M/s0/david-vardy-muskrat-falls-concerned-citizens-coalition-mfccc_1_orig.jpg" width="240" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">David Vardy</td></tr></tbody></table><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;">In the meantime, the costs of Muskrat Falls continue to mount.
Even if GE, the software supplier for the Labrador Interconnected system, takes
responsibility for the direct cost the province must continue to bear the time
cost of the delay. First power was targeted for October 2017, allowing five
years for construction. The five years has become nine and counting. The cost
of delay is $2 million per day. Once onstream the cost will be $2.5 million
daily.<o:p></o:p></span><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 18pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;">Ratepayers are required to bear the full cost at 67 cents/KWh,
under the power purchase agreement, for 1.3 billion kilowatt hours of electric
power. This compares with eight cents/KWh for Emera, to obtain 2.4 billion
kilowatt hours of electric power. Our province is no longer the “principal
beneficiary” of the Muskrat Falls project, given that our exports to Nova
Scotia will exceed our own use of the power. Is it fair that we should, by
virtue of the power purchase agreement, be expected to pay a power rate which
is eight times higher than the charge to Emera?<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 18pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;">This could have been a good news story if better choices had been
made. We could have maintained our low power rates and kept thermal production
costs low. What we needed was practical, frugal, cost-conscious management.
Instead, we were seduced by the allure of a grandiose project, offering lots of
short-term jobs at high wage rates. We had the option of aggressive policy
management to moderate peak winter demand and to focus on Churchill Falls as
the long-term solution to the province’s power needs after 2041.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 18pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;">As pointed out by the Joint Review Panel (Recommendation 4.2) the
province could have included access to recall power from Churchill Falls as an
interim supply of low-cost power to help bridge any deficit emerging before
2041, recognizing that a transmission line would have to be built in advance.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 18pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;">It is noteworthy in this respect that the energy sales of recall
power by Nalcor Energy Marketing has been in the same order of magnitude,
namely 1.3 TWh, as the energy required to supply the Island and to replace
production at Holyrood. Nalcor Energy Marketing (NEM) sells the same amount of
power the Island needs to other buyers for 3-4 cents/KWh. It buys the power
from CFLCo for only 0.2 cents/KWh.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 18pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;">Instead of redirecting that nearly free power to the Island, GNL
sanctioned a project that will instead cost Island ratepayers 67 cents/KWh!
However, use of recall power would require a new transmission line to be built
well in advance of 2041. An even better solution is to be found through
efficient prices combined with energy conservation which was the solution
advanced by Dr. James Feehan, and others.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 18pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;">Even if the Muskrat Falls project had come in within budget, at
$7.4 billion, the annual costs would still have exceeded the cost of Holyrood
power by a factor of three. It would have cost $3 per person per day, compared
with $1 per person per day for Holyrood. Cost escalation drove this $3 per
person per day up to $5.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 18pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;">The February 10, 2010 joint announcement by former Premier Dwight
Ball and then Natural Resources Minister Seamus O’Regan promised a financial
restructuring of the power purchase agreement. Without such a restructuring the
ratepayer is exposed to unaffordable, exorbitant power rates which will have a
devastating impact on the province.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 18pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;">Did the July 28, 2021 joint announcement by the Prime Minister and
the Premier deliver such a restructuring? Did the July 28 announcement satisfy
the 10 principles which I set out in my <a href="https://draft.blogger.com/blog/post/edit/5235138415013046381/4592203193836104355"><span style="color: red;">Uncle Gnarley post</span></a></span><span style="color: red; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> </span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;">of June
28, 2021? Did the announcement fulfill the objective a “permanent long-term
solution,” which was stated by GOC Finance Minister William Morneau in
his <a href="https://draft.blogger.com/blog/post/edit/5235138415013046381/4592203193836104355"><span style="color: red;">letter to Premier Ball</span></a></span><span style="color: red; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> </span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;">in
February of 2020 and reaffirmed by Deputy Prime Minister</span><span style="color: red; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> </span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"><a href="https://draft.blogger.com/blog/post/edit/5235138415013046381/4592203193836104355"><span style="color: red;">Chrystia Freeland in her letter to Premier Andrew Furey</span></a> on
July 28, 2021, which referred to a “sustainable fiscal path for the
province.” <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 18pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;">In future posts we will examine the impact of the July 28
Announcement on Rate Mitigation to ask if the new agreement will overturn the
fatally flawed power purchase agreement (PPA). If it does not then it cannot
form the basis for a long term, sustainable solution which will provide
affordable power to ratepayers. The power purchase agreement, between two
subsidiaries of Nalcor, must not be allowed to stand.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 18pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;">In the meantime what we are faced with is an unmitigated disaster,
not simply a misguided project, as described by Commissioner Richard Leblanc.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 18pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;">
</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 18pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;">David Vardy<o:p></o:p></span></p><p></p>Des Sullivanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02566013585647491614noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-18562623007067273972021-10-11T14:53:00.000-02:302021-10-11T14:53:18.282-02:30DON’T BE 'FUELLED' BY HIGH OIL PRICES<p><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;">If you visited the pumps lately, you likely came face to face with oil prices north of $1.60/L. The pricing pressure begins
downstream; Brent crude/barrel hit US$85.00 last week. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;">Some analysts suggest
that if the resurgence in airline travel and underinvestment in exploration
activity is combined with other events, such as a colder-than-usual winter, the
result could be $100/barrel oil!</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">That’s great, isn’t it! Well, not really; when unexpected
developments occur, there are always winners and losers, too.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">In this case the general public will likely see themselves the losers; the provincial government may be the temporary
winner. But don’t jump to conclusions before I have a chance to burst that
little bubble.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">In this province, oil revenues represent the glue
of solvency, even if it isn’t actually true. That is the job of “faith”, mostly
of the bondholders, which is derived from the perceived goodwill of the
Government of Canada.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">"Faith" having been invoked, we’ll come to those possessing “hope” shortly.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi6olXV3XKex4waB8yBmmGk4Rw-bD-1ldHbuh1FcEnsO_XRyw82C3SgiaLelVDbOjnwdp5tvM9qKHyDj3aU3iSozhj28A6mMLZS15eE7ZKhbLu7lW6zk6YdZom4F8HiJThzrALBb8WMqeU/s359/gas+prices.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="240" data-original-width="359" height="428" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi6olXV3XKex4waB8yBmmGk4Rw-bD-1ldHbuh1FcEnsO_XRyw82C3SgiaLelVDbOjnwdp5tvM9qKHyDj3aU3iSozhj28A6mMLZS15eE7ZKhbLu7lW6zk6YdZom4F8HiJThzrALBb8WMqeU/w640-h428/gas+prices.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">This year’s provincial Budget was based on a price
projection of $US64.00 per barrel. Provided that the $C/$US exchange rate averages
79.6 cents, each additional $US/barrel represents an additional $19.0 million
to the provincial coffers. So far in 2021, the average exchange rate favours
this budgetary assumption but because <b>average </b>oil prices also stayed close to GNL’s
forecast, any uptick in revenue may only be modest.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Next year might bring better news, if high oil
prices persist and don’t cause a tailwind of inflation and interest rate hikes.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">To the point, however, even if oil returns
additional royalties of a couple hundred million dollars or so, will it really
matter?</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">The last time oil prices spiked the move made our politicians
crazy. Government became so inebriated on spending and deficit financing that
spiking oil prices may never go high enough again to meaningfully resolve our
fiscal predicament.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">It is worth remembering that NL has a structural
deficit of around $2 billion. Borrowing for capital account – infrastructure –
adds roughly another billion onto the deficit. The requirement to borrow $3
billion each year – not including the shortfall required by Muskrat Falls “rate
mitigation” – remains a sobering state of affairs. GNL uses accounting trickery
to distort this truth but the perception won’t endure.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Against those numbers, even an additional two
hundred million dollars from royalties is not curative; in the hands of
spenders it might even serve as fuel for more spending.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">This brings me to the nub of the issue: though the
Furey Administration was returned to Office in March, not a word has been heard
on a plan to curtail program costs. Such a plan is the only real solution to
our deficit woes and even this effort must be combined with a lot of luck (i.e.
high oil prices, low inflation, and continued low interest rates).</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">I took out my copy of the PERT Report recently. That’s
the one which Premier Furey put Moya Greene and a Committee of capable people
to work on our fiscal mess. The Report was not perfect, but it contained
important elements of a plan for fiscal repair. Perhaps you will remember one
particular revelation. The Report noted:</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"><i>Adding in estimated borrowings to cover the
2020-21 shortfall of approximately $2.8 billion, brings the total public sector
debt obligation to $47.3 billion - the equivalent of $182,000 for every worker
or $215,000 for every household in the province. </i><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;">That was sobering, especially when the figures
eluded mention of even the Office of the Auditor General.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">The PERT Report stated that if Newfoundland and
Labrador’s per capita program spending was in line with that of other
provinces, program expenses would have been $1.18 billion less in 2019-20. This
means that at least some measure of a solution, though not the whole one, is possible if only the will could be found.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Among other ideas, the Report proposed:<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">- Balanced Budget Legislation, legislation which “would
encourage everyone, not only politicians, to work within a fiscal framework.” <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">- 50 per cent of oil and mineral royalties should be
considered in expenditure planning; the rest should be paid on debt or placed
in a Future Fund.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;">It does seem absurd to be talking “Future Fund”
when you are up against an annual $3 billion deficit and a $47 billion total
provincial debt. But everyone conveys the prospect of hope differently. I’m not
big on hope except when it comes to weather; I prefer a realistic repair plan and sticking to it - come hell or
high water. Admittedly, it is a difficult sell when partisan politics trumps
common sense.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;">When, eventually, GNL has to admit that even $85+ per
barrel is no better plan than “hope”, one can always wonder if the dust
settling on the PERT Report is a consequence of Premier Furey’s big “reimagining”.
</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> Decisions, not deydreaming, is what </span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;">creates real change.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;">The public ought to be demanding a program of
expenditure reduction, even if the likelihood of any appearing seems
delusional.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;">They should also see an accounting for the Muskrat
“rate mitigation” calculations so that they fully understand the assumptions on
which revenue forecasts are based for the capital and O&M costs. Transparency
demands that they be permitted to come face to face with the amounts
unaccounted for by the promise of Federal generosity and the rhetoric of other
sources, which an empty provincial Treasury will be expected to fill.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">This might even be accompanied by forecasts of
domestic power demand for the next five years, which Nalcor always exaggerates; lower demand, in this case, puts upward pressure on rates just to even out revenues.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">The merger of Nalcor and NL Hydro has been
announced. An able Premier would inform us of the efficiencies achieved to date.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Having buried the PERT Report, he could also tell
us why the healthcare “reimagining” of Dr. Pat Parfrey and Sister Elizabeth
Davis will be treated any differently. Perhaps, it’s not only the bondholders
who have faith.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;">Otherwise, considering the ferry procurement management disaster reported on the the A-G, reminiscent of some of the goings-on that occurred during the Muskrat Falls pre and post sanction period, the Premier ought to be reporting on whether NL still has a competent senior public service. Perhaps he can tell us what has changed and why we should believe that they would not mess up any plan of fiscal reform. </span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;">The public cannot rely on the Tories for any such discussion; those specic cases occurred on their watch. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">On the larger issue, however, high oil prices are only an aggravation
at the pumps; they are not a source of hope even if the politicians say otherwise.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">But if “hope” works for you, who am I to argue.<o:p></o:p></span></p>Des Sullivanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02566013585647491614noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235138415013046381.post-79215094648935577432021-10-04T07:45:00.004-02:302021-10-04T16:16:53.402-02:30DANNY WILLIAMS: Bottom Feeders and Naysayers<p></p><p><span style="color: black; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: large;">Guest Post by Ron Penney</span></p><p><span style="color: black; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">On
September 15th, Memorial hosted a conference on the “Economic snd Fiscal
Trajectory of Newfoundland”. </span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; orphans: 2; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">I took a miss once I saw the program
and the list of speakers, including Mr. Williams. I suspected the day would not
be very edifying. </span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; orphans: 2; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">A program on our fiscal situation
which didn’t include Dame Moya Greene, or a member of her committee, or the
Auditor General, the Parliamentary Budget Officer, all of whom have extensively
reported on our dire financial situation, but did include the author of much of
our current problems, didn’t inspire much confidence. I thought it would be a
waste of a day and it would appear I was right. </span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; orphans: 2; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">What possessed the conference
organizers to give a forum to Mr. Williams to spout, unchallenged, his usual
nonsense about Muskrat Falls and to continue his diatribe against the critics
of the project? At the very least they should have given us equal time! <span></span></span></p><a name='more'></a><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; orphans: 2; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">But since they didn’t, Uncle Gnarley
has kindly agreed to give me his forum to respond to Mr. Williams and to remind
readers of what Mr. Justice Leblanc said about Mr. Williams and his treatment
of critics of the project. </span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; orphans: 2; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgHLQ1rTqBC4tkokXt2lTEJpObaUFiROfcAGHpqLul0IHilWSR7FIq2uwlkEGU9_LKuct9W-JQBl-yyGHfWCxmkAlwl9wBSE9Mgg6YCt_4FKWqByhjlPhYQq0aRQEQvkLb-iNilZpH4Qbc/s844/Danny+Williams+2021+Memorial+Economic+Forum.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="361" data-original-width="844" height="274" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgHLQ1rTqBC4tkokXt2lTEJpObaUFiROfcAGHpqLul0IHilWSR7FIq2uwlkEGU9_LKuct9W-JQBl-yyGHfWCxmkAlwl9wBSE9Mgg6YCt_4FKWqByhjlPhYQq0aRQEQvkLb-iNilZpH4Qbc/w640-h274/Danny+Williams+2021+Memorial+Economic+Forum.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">The video of the conference is not yet
online so I have to rely on press reports of what Mr. Williams had to say about
we naysayers and “bottom feeders”, to use his phrase. </span><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; orphans: 2; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">“He said critics of the project
“actively” wished for its failure and have “taken advantage” of the narrative”
to “completely erase” the benefits of the project” (CBC) </span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; orphans: 2; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">This is his usual approach of
demonizing us because we had the temerity to warn of the dangers of his pet
project. </span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; orphans: 2; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">Some of the critics of the project,
such as myself and my fellow naysayer, Dave Vardy, have devoted just about all
our working life to public service, and we felt that it was our duty to warn
the people of Newfoundland and Labrador about the project. Dave Vardy, in
particular, had a most distinguished public service career, including being
Clerk of the Executive Council, the most senior public service position in the
province, with his last position being Chair of the Public Utilities Board,
which gave him a particular expertise on Muskrat Falls. </span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; orphans: 2; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">To say that we “actively” wished for
its failure is the continuation of his tactic of painting us and other critics
as unpatriotic. </span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; orphans: 2; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">It’s as if he thinks our criticism
caused the Muskrat Falls debacle and it we had joined the supporters of the
project all would have been well! </span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; orphans: 2; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">What we did do is express the opinion
that the project was unnecessary, that it ignored the end of the Upper
Churchill contract in 2041, that it should have been subject to the approval of
the Public Utilities Board, and that it was likely to be way over budget. </span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; orphans: 2; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">We did not “actively” wish for the
failure of the project, rather we warned that it was likely to fail. There is a
difference. </span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; orphans: 2; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">Unfortunately we were right but we
wish that we weren’t. We’ve spent most of our lives here, except for leaving to
obtain our post graduate degrees, and have made a contribution to public
administration and public policy. We decided to stay here and to continue to
contribute to public policy debates after our retirement, as well as
to participate in civil society through our volunteer efforts and this is how a
former Premier treats us. No wonder hardly anyone else dares to dissent. </span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; orphans: 2; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">Mr. Justice Leblanc devoted a chapter
of his report to this kind of behavior and it is worthwhile providing a
summary, as it has gotten very little attention. </span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; orphans: 2; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">The title of chapter 21 is “Dealing
with Opposition to the Project”. Yours truly is on the short list of
public critics referred to in the report. You can read the whole <a href="https://www.muskratfallsinquiry.ca/files/Volume-3-Post-Sanction-Events-FINAL.pdf"><span style="color: red;">chapter here</span></a> (p.333). It’s only six pages long and tells you all you need to know about how
we were treated. </span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; orphans: 2; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">Judge Leblanc noted that “many of the
concerns raised about the Project by the people listed above have, in fact,
been borne out.” </span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; orphans: 2; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">He refers in particular to concerns
that Dave Vardy and I raised in January 2012 and then Premier Williams’s
response that our concerns were “garbage” and “nonsense”. </span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; orphans: 2; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">In his appearance at the Inquiry Mr.
Williams described us as “bottom feeders who go out and disparage our people
and state they’re not world class, I think, do a serious injustice to the
people in this province.” </span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; orphans: 2; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">Judge correctly concluded that “this
kind of extreme and derogatory language does not advance reasoned public
debate.” </span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; orphans: 2; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">He further notes that “Mr. Williams
seems to regard most criticism of the Project as somehow being “disloyal” to
the Province.” </span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; orphans: 2; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">In addition, Judge Leblanc referred to
an attack made on Dave Vardy by Jerome Kennedy, then the Minister of Natural
Resources, and obviously a keen student of Mr. Williams’s tactics, accusing
Dave Vardy of advocating the closure of the Corner Brook paper mill. As Mr.
Vardy pointed out at the time this was untrue and particularly so as he
had led the efforts to keep the mill open! At least Mr.
Kennedy acknowledged in his testimony that his comments were inappropriate and
that, in retrospect he should not have made them. No such apology from Mr.
Williams, it goes without saying. </span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; orphans: 2; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">Even the Clerk of the Executive
Council at the time, Robert Thompson, suggested to then Premier Dunderdale that
in her remarks for a dinner with the Nalcor Board a key message that she give
is that she “won’t be deterred on MF by detractors pursuing narrow and petty
agendas.” </span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; orphans: 2; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">It is clear from his most recent
comments that the Judges criticism of his behavior has had no effect on Mr.
Williams. Giving him a forum to continue those personal attacks on us and to
continue to spout such nonsense about Muskrat Falls, reflects badly on my alma
mater. </span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; orphans: 2; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">Many thanks to Jen Deon for her
confrontation of Mr, Williams at the symposium about his treatment of critics.
It was very brave of her. But even saying that tells us a lot about the state
of public discourse in this place. </span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; orphans: 2; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">We have very big problems here and we
need everyone’s contribution to the public debate but this is what those who
attempt to contribute have to face. No wonder most people don’t bother.</span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.5pt;"> </span></p><p></p>Des Sullivanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02566013585647491614noreply@blogger.com0