Occasionally, I receive comments from readers who don't put them on this Blog. Their best value is when they are shared.
Recently a reader stated his views regarding my Submission to the PUB's Pre-Conference Hearing on Wednesday past. In it I described suggested that the PUB consider the need for a 'back-up' system for Muskrat Falls among other issues.
In reply, the reader offered his thoughts and proposed a gas turbine replacement for Holyrood.
People such as Cabot Martin, former Adviser to several Premiers, and Dr. Stephen Bruneau of Memorial University proposed the idea two years ago. They argued that the natural gas option represented a less expensive and less risky option to the $7.7 billion Muskrat Falls Project.
Ironically, natural gas-fired turbines may be the best 'back-up' system, too.
Martin and Bruneau saw the advantage of maintaining power generation close to where the electricity is used. They hoped it would constitute a springboard to encourage development of Newfoundland and Labrador's offshore natural gas resources.
Even if our offshore industry wasn't ready to supply the gas, LNG tankers, likely out of the U.S., could be used in the interim.
There is growing recognition that the Island will need a 'back-up' power supply if the Labrador Island Link(LIL) fails in a winter storm. Alpine conditions will represent a major threat to a transmission system that runs over the Long Range Mountains. Then there are the risks of the undersea cable crossing the Straits of Belle Isle. The possibility that Nalcor May lose Hydro Quebec's challenge to the Water Management Agreement is a concern, as is the fear that Nalcor has over committed power to Nova Scotia under the Energy Access Agreement, in order to secure the Federal Loan Guarantee.
The writer's comments are re-produced here with an artist's rendition of a GE gas turbine facility. Unfortunately, the comments section of my Blog does not permit uploading such images. Here they are:
Re: Holyrood Power May Be Needed:
Recently a reader stated his views regarding my Submission to the PUB's Pre-Conference Hearing on Wednesday past. In it I described suggested that the PUB consider the need for a 'back-up' system for Muskrat Falls among other issues.
In reply, the reader offered his thoughts and proposed a gas turbine replacement for Holyrood.
People such as Cabot Martin, former Adviser to several Premiers, and Dr. Stephen Bruneau of Memorial University proposed the idea two years ago. They argued that the natural gas option represented a less expensive and less risky option to the $7.7 billion Muskrat Falls Project.
Ironically, natural gas-fired turbines may be the best 'back-up' system, too.
Martin and Bruneau saw the advantage of maintaining power generation close to where the electricity is used. They hoped it would constitute a springboard to encourage development of Newfoundland and Labrador's offshore natural gas resources.
Even if our offshore industry wasn't ready to supply the gas, LNG tankers, likely out of the U.S., could be used in the interim.
There is growing recognition that the Island will need a 'back-up' power supply if the Labrador Island Link(LIL) fails in a winter storm. Alpine conditions will represent a major threat to a transmission system that runs over the Long Range Mountains. Then there are the risks of the undersea cable crossing the Straits of Belle Isle. The possibility that Nalcor May lose Hydro Quebec's challenge to the Water Management Agreement is a concern, as is the fear that Nalcor has over committed power to Nova Scotia under the Energy Access Agreement, in order to secure the Federal Loan Guarantee.
The writer's comments are re-produced here with an artist's rendition of a GE gas turbine facility. Unfortunately, the comments section of my Blog does not permit uploading such images. Here they are:
Re: Holyrood Power May Be Needed:
Des Sullivan made a number of salient points in his
presentation to the PUB. I thought that this one was the most
significant:
What Sullivan highlights is the need for some sort
of "back-up" insurance generating capacity to fill in on the rare
occasions when the LIL is disabled due to weather events or equipment failure.
[Note: "When", not "If".]
However, refurbishing Holyrood wouldn't make sense in my opinion, due to the costs involved. Not just equipment replacement costs (i.e. boilers, steam turbines, dynamos), but more importantly the ongoing operational costs - which over a matter of years, add up substantially. And then there are the operational considerations.
Thermal power plants work best when run continuously, allowing the system to reach thermal equilibrium, and run at a "steady state". However, they are also complex and time-consuming to start-up, and equally so to shut down, as you have witnessed in this past winter's drama. A major drawback is that in the event of an emergency demand for power, response time from a "cold start" is measured in hours, not minutes. Not exactly what one wants for an emergency blackout situation.
However, refurbishing Holyrood wouldn't make sense in my opinion, due to the costs involved. Not just equipment replacement costs (i.e. boilers, steam turbines, dynamos), but more importantly the ongoing operational costs - which over a matter of years, add up substantially. And then there are the operational considerations.
Thermal power plants work best when run continuously, allowing the system to reach thermal equilibrium, and run at a "steady state". However, they are also complex and time-consuming to start-up, and equally so to shut down, as you have witnessed in this past winter's drama. A major drawback is that in the event of an emergency demand for power, response time from a "cold start" is measured in hours, not minutes. Not exactly what one wants for an emergency blackout situation.
Instead, I would recommend that the present
Holyrood plant be scrapped - as originally planned - and the facility replaced
with one featuring gas turbine generator units.
General Electric produces a 9E model gas turbine unit, which produces 128 MW of power. So 4 of these units, ganged together, would produce the same output as the current Holyrood thermal plant.
A key feature is that, as with the commercial jet engines they are derived from, they can be safely started (or shut down) in a matter of minutes and reach full power in less than 7 minutes from a "cold" start. No cooling water is required, and depending on the fuel used - natural gas, fuel oil, or even synthetic fuel - emissions are very "clean".
General Electric produces a 9E model gas turbine unit, which produces 128 MW of power. So 4 of these units, ganged together, would produce the same output as the current Holyrood thermal plant.
A key feature is that, as with the commercial jet engines they are derived from, they can be safely started (or shut down) in a matter of minutes and reach full power in less than 7 minutes from a "cold" start. No cooling water is required, and depending on the fuel used - natural gas, fuel oil, or even synthetic fuel - emissions are very "clean".
 |
| Here is a GE Installation featuring 2 9E gas turbine units. A Holyrood replacement would essentially double this installation. |
Best of all, there would be no need to run the
units all of the time, thus saving significantly on fuel and operational costs.
Instead a weekly schedule of hour-long "runs" - feeding power
into the Provincial grid on a rotating basis, would exercise both the equipment
and operating personnel, ensuring that the units are constantly available to
meet the needs of any emergency situation.
They could also be used, incrementally as needed, to "top up" the grid when extremely cold weather places severe demands on the grid, as happened during this past winter. Accordingly, there would be no prospect of "brown outs", or having to institute rotating "black outs".
They could also be used, incrementally as needed, to "top up" the grid when extremely cold weather places severe demands on the grid, as happened during this past winter. Accordingly, there would be no prospect of "brown outs", or having to institute rotating "black outs".
These GE units have built up and incredibly
reliable operating record around the world, and are also used by major American
and Canadian utilities like American Electric Power, Consolidated Edison,
Direct Energy, Duke Energy, and Pacific Gas Electric.
Seems to me that a gas turbine "solution" would offer the best of all worlds for Nalcor, and the residents of Newfoundland.
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Final Note:
The public has been under the illusion that MF is a panacea.
It has been terribly oversold. The idea that Newfoundland ratepayers may have to pay for the Project, with all its attendant costs and risks, in addition to the cost of a “back-up” system has not yet entered public consciousness.
Now the PUB is asked to deal with the question. In the coming days, we will find out if that semi-judicial Agency is willing to undertake the evaluation as part of its mission to investigate what happened in early January and to prevent future occurrences.
Newfoundland Power, David Vardy, Ron Penney and Cabot's Martin's Submissions, as well as my own, called on the PUB to widen the scope of its investigation to include the post-Muskrat period. The PUB said, on Wednesday, it will announce its decision within 7-10 days.
Monday's Blog Post will discuss why Newfoundland Power has broken ranks with Nalcor.
Nalcor, on the other hand, wants the PUB's investigation to NOT include Muskrat Falls.
Stay tuned.
Newfoundland Power, David Vardy, Ron Penney and Cabot's Martin's Submissions, as well as my own, called on the PUB to widen the scope of its investigation to include the post-Muskrat period. The PUB said, on Wednesday, it will announce its decision within 7-10 days.
Monday's Blog Post will discuss why Newfoundland Power has broken ranks with Nalcor.
Nalcor, on the other hand, wants the PUB's investigation to NOT include Muskrat Falls.
Stay tuned.