PREMIER DAVIS: NOW IS NOT THE “RIGHT TIME”

Guest Post Written By "AGENT 13"

In June 2015, Premier Davis surprised most of the attendees at the NOIA Conference held in St. John’s. How? By stating that the provincial government and STATOIL may be only weeks away from finalizing the “term sheet” on the Bay du Nord field, a massive oil discovery located on the Flemish Pass.

At that time, the Premier indicated that the provincial government was on a path of negotiations to have the “term sheet” finalized, but that he would not commit to having it completed before the general election.

Then, last week Deputy Premier Steve Kent was asked about the status of the “term sheet” negotiations.  He stated his understanding it was very close and we would likely be hearing from the Minister of Natural Resources and the Premier in the coming weeks.

The question that must be asked is this: “Which party to the negotiations would benefit the most by finalizing the “term sheet” now, so close to a general election?”

DAN CRUMMELL: THE PEOPLE OF MUD LAKE AWAIT YOUR ANSWER.

Guest Post written by Cabot Martin

My letter of September 11, 2015 to Minister Dan Crummell, on the perils of a North Spur collapse to workers both on the Spur and at the powerhouse site across the river, to downstream residents and to provincial finances alike has, so far, gone unanswered. Perhaps, that is not surprising. Despite the urgent nature of the matter, in the past he has usually taken about a month to reply.

One point not fully covered in my letter concerns the technical analysis on which Nalcor has based its “There’s no problem with the North Spur“ position. Seemingly, it has been adopted without critical analysis by Mr. Crummell.

NOTE TO LIBERAL CAUCUS: THANKS FOR NOTHING!

The Davis Government will go into the next election battered and bruised, ready only for the re-cycling bin.

No credit for this political train wreck is due to the astute oversight, vigilance, or to the insights of the Official Opposition.

While the Liberals stayed under everyone’s political radar, the Tories simply wore through the patience of most decent people, all on their own.

Bill 29 was only the beginning.

A trail of secrecy, misinformation, and deceit presaged the sanctioning of the Muskrat Falls project.

For the Liberal Party’s efforts to expose the sad underbelly of that project, we would say: thanks for nothing.

DOUBLE TROUBLE IF NORTH SPUR COLLAPSES

Guest Post Written by Cabot Martin

Minister's August 26, 2015 Letter Confirms James L. Gordon's Concerns

The attempt to bring some clarity to the North Spur landslide issue seems to be making headway – if in a very disturbing way.

Attached is a letter from Minister Dan Crummell (Minister responsible for Dam Safety) dated August 26, 2015 in answer to my letter to him of August 7,2015 together with my reply of September 11, 2015 to the Minister's latest letter. (Both letters are shown below.)

While this letter exchange with the Minister involves some pretty technical matters, this should not deflect us from the conclusion that an independent, engineering-based and technically competent review is needed. My latest letter closes with a call for a “Hydro Review Board” that would do just that.

WILL ONLY THE INNOCENT BE PUNISHED?

Recently, I received some comments in an email from a person who served at a senior level both in government and international industry.  I was pleased that he was maintaining a watchful eye on the Muskrat Falls project, especially the plethora of self-justifying utterances from the Nalcor CEO.   Likely, he had read Ed Martin's remarks to reporters during a scrum on July 14^th, too; and felt nauseous along with many others.

Certainly he had heard enough.

The following formed part of his narrative:

“In the course of a large project in which I was involved many years ago, the (concept of) "Six phases of a big project" was brought forward to keep us from becoming too cocky.In the years which followed, I have found this reference to be both useful and often true.

COVER-UP AT RONCALLI SCHOOL

Was there a conscious and deliberate decision taken, in 2014, to cover up an incident involving the collapse of a cinder block wall at Roncalli School?

Who knew of the incident? And who took the decision to bury the issue?

These questions are just a beginning.

Who would argue safety at a school is an imperative?

It seems not everyone.

The provincial government chose to permit Roncalli School, located in the Airport Heights area of St. John’s, to continue to function even as it underwent reconstruction on a piecemeal basis.  

Roncalli became a school and a construction zone at the same time. That decision held inherent risks, and not just with respect to the additional cost of carrying on a major construction project on an occupied premises.

The risk of combining two incompatible activities demanded the highest possible safety standard for the 410 students enrolled K to Grade 6, distributed throughout 21 classrooms; the statistics provided on the School’s web site. 

DAM BREAK STUDY NEEDS REVISION: HYDRO EXPERT

Guest Post written by Cabot Martin:

For over a year now, I have been privileged to have the advice of Jim Gordon on the North Spur issue at Muskrat Falls via long phone calls and countless emails – when I have cited him, I’ve usually referred  to him simply as a “very experienced retired hydro engineer” –

Mr. Gordon is, in fact, one of Canada’s most pre-eminent Hydro Engineers.

A graduate in civil engineering from Aberdeen University (First Class Honours), he retains his no nonsense Scottish roots.

His bio reads well.

Only Canadian chosen by the prestigious UK based  International Water Power & Dam Construction Magazine’s as one of the world’s top 60 hydro engineers from 1949 to 2009.

Winner of the ultra-prestigious Rickey Medal by the American Society of Civil Engineers; recipient of a Distinguished Service Award by the Canadian Electrical Association.

Worked on the development of the Gull Island site on the Lower Churchill in the 1970’s.

ED MARTIN PLAYS THE 100 YEAR CARD WITH REPORTERS

(CAUTION: WORDS LIKE BULLSHIT, BLATHER, AND BOMBAST USED)

The master of spin, Nalcor CEO Ed Martin, should be weary of his own storytelling. But, when even reporters offer no interruption, I guess he just can’t help himself.

It’s the kind of stuff that makes your teeth grind because, intuitively, you know that Muskrat Falls, at $10-12 billion, will be reported as just an innocuous detail; reporters will never note their failure to challenge the blather (or the decisions) of officials like him.

Recently (July 14^th) Ed Martin toured the Muskrat Falls site with some of the provincial Premiers.  The CEO told a media "scrum” he can’t guarantee the project will generate first power by 2017 as scheduled, or if it will meet budget targets.

The statement contained uncharacteristic bluntness for one who never wastes an opportunity to ‘gild the lily’. But, alas, the slip was deliberate; the sad state of the project is beyond plausible deniability, even for Ed Martin. 

The CEO had come to Labrador to be praised, not pilloried; reporters had plenty of evidence to upbraid Nalcor's man but chose to leave his self-praise unedited. 

CONFUSED MINISTER AND A CANADIAN SOLUTION FOR NORTH SPUR

Cabot Martin and his geotechnical engineering advisors are at odds with the Minister of Environment and Conservation, Dan Crummell, on some pretty important issues. I have briefly summarized two of them here, but readers are offered full access to the documents via the links provided below.

The two issues mentioned are:

a)      The Minister claims Nalcor Energy has conducted a proper risk assessment of geotechnical conditions at the North Spur. In his July 30^th 2015 reply to Cabot Martin’s Letter of July 7^th 2015, Dan Crummell says Nalcor has conformed to the Canadian Dam Association (CDA) Dam Safety Guidelines. The advice Martin received suggests that those Guidelines are applicable to “man-made” structures. In other words, they are appropriate for the two concrete structures which will constitute the southern portion of the dam only; not for the North Spur.

b)    The dam break study which Nalcor commissioned Hatch Consultants to perform, and on which the Minister Crummell relied, is based upon arbitrary assumptions which Nalcor insisted the Study should contain.

Let’s look at those two issues more closely and consider a Paper by a Canadian engineering icon which offers a process to resolve them.

OF WIMPS, GUTTERSNIPES, AND POLTROONS

When the Liberals should be pit bulls, they are wimps.

After Tory members of the Public Accounts Committee (PAC) refused to show up for a meeting, last week, to discuss the Humber Valley Paving (HVP) affair, Liberal MHA Jim Bennett told the Telegram “the whole thing seems fishy to him…”

Some condemnation!  

And Bennett wasn’t even in the legislature where the Speaker might have ruled any provocation out of order.

A good Opposition MHA would have whipped out his thesaurus of insults, insinuations, epithets and allegations. The public would know, in the colourful language of the best parliamentarians, that the guttersnipes heading the government are weak of character as well as at the knees.