Infrastructure, jobs in general, and health care are matters
of similarly high concern. Just possibly the public possesses fewer
expectations of their political leadership than even the politicians believe. Scepticism
seems to underscore the new Abacus Poll, and for this reason alone it a
refreshing read.
Polls are frequently less a reflection on the subjects assessed
than of the populace whose views are being aggregated. It is hard not to sense
in the Abacus data that NL is in a state of readiness for change.
Evidence is the Poll’s confirmation that a “majority (53%) of
residents think the province is headed in the wrong direction while only one in
four think it’s headed in the right direction.”
Even partisan Liberals, on whom the current Liberal
Administration depends, believe that the Government is lost in some obscure
economic wilderness. A “majority (48%) of those who voted Liberal in 2014 think
the province is off on the wrong track.”
Abacus states that “majorities point to the provincial deficit
and finances and future opportunities for young people in the province as very
big problems.”
Some may think that the Poll results are a distressing and
fearful outcome when, in fact, they ought to see the numbers as revealing a hallelujah
moment. There is no better opportunity to fix problems than when people overcome
the mistaken belief that there are none. Of course, awareness is not a
prescription or even a demand that the pain should begin. That is the job of
leadership anyway.
The Abacus Poll also assesses the public’s views with respect
to how the Premier has handled allegations of bullying and harassment in the
Liberal Caucus. The response, I believe, constitutes a reminder to pundits and
pollsters of the brutal scepticism with which people view all matters touched
by politics. Abacus states that: “91% of residents think the allegations of
bullying and harassment in the Liberal caucus and cabinet are likely to be true
but 44% think they are likely exaggerated.”
The public’s penchant for bluntness is extended to issues of the
Premier’s popularity and that of the three political Parties. Abacus reports
that 1 in 3 believe that Premier Ball should step down; only 24% view him
positively against 44% who hold a negative impression of him.
The figures still have to be weighed against those of political
neophyte Ches Crosbie. Only 16% view him negatively, but then it is hard to
assess someone that you don’t know. Hence, any conclusions are terribly premature
until Crosbie earns a presence in public kitchens.
Political watchers will no doubt direct their attention to the
fact that, if an election were already underway, it would be a horse race
between the Tories (24%) and the Liberals (22%). The problem for the Grits is
that the Tories possess the most growth potential, having picked up 6 points just
in the last Quarter according to Abacus. Crosbie’s election is the only event
that might reasonably account for the gain. 
Liberals need to assess not just the Party’s current standing,
but why it is so low given the Tories’ dreadful legacy. 
Politics in NL seems now a story of transition and re-assessment.
No other number proves the point as does the “undecided” group of Poll
respondents, which represents a fairly lofty 41% — albeit a decline from 48%. But get this: 6 points out of the 7-point
difference went to the Tories. The message is unmistakeable; that is, if anyone
is interested.
The NDP picked up no traction following Gerry Rogers’ win. Based on the numbers one has to conclude that,
if an election were held today, Gerry Rogers — no differently than Premier Ball
— would be a ‘dead person walking’.
Partisans often hold onto their leader long after their ‘best
before’ date has expired. Prone to error are mistakes of the heart.
A wiser Liberal Party should see Dwight Ball much as some view
the North Spur’s relationship to Muskrat Falls: perennially in a state of
imminent collapse. That’s why the Liberal Party should, in mid-June, keep a
rein on their passions and conduct what engineers call a “Cold-Eyes Review”.
Denial won’t help either if the Liberals can’t parse why the size
of the “undecided” group of voters is so high. But elections will dissolve
those blind spots.
Abacus has shown that the Premier and the Liberal Caucus are
out of step. Even Liberals won’t buy into Ball’s much-heralded economic
platform. The Poll’s assertion of a government “on the wrong track” confirms
that “The Way Forward” is not just a journey into an economic abyss; it is a
roadmap to political defeat.
Someone should pay a price for that.
