HOW NOT TO LOSE YOUR MARBLES!

(Uncle Gnarley is hosting the Class of 2012; his umpteenth time performing high level instruction to the politically naïve.  Let’s listen in…as he addresses the group.) Here's Uncle Gnarley:

People, often to their detriment, enjoy a belief in the fundamental fairness of political institutions.    Human progress is frequently inhibited because, all too often, we give way to, what I call, “the tyranny of naïve realism”.  

The art of the process is not as much science as it is attitude.  Perhaps it is our relative isolation, maybe it is in the generous nature of island people, as most of us are; whatever its source, we have a tendency to see things as ‘we want them to be’ rather than ‘as they are’.  It is a common weakness, especially in politics. It has to stop!

But don’t worry. Uncle Gnarley will have you wearing the grim aspect of a Presbyterian in no time. 

Now, Johnny, down in the far corner; you look so wise, yes, you, the one with the Walmart ‘Prices are Falling’ sticker on your jacket.   Answer me this question, what does the phrase “envelope approach to federalism” mean?  No, Johnny, I didn’t ask you to let your eye balls fall out; it’s not time for ‘show and tell’.  What do you mean, ask, Mary.  I’m asking you!  You have never heard of it? Then sit down and let Mary speak. 

BOOT CAMP FOR THE POLITICALLY NAIVE

“What is it that we have to do down here to get your attention?  We try to co-operate; it doesn’t work.  We vote for you; it doesn’t work. What is it?”

That was Premier Cathy Dunderdale, quoted verbatim from The Telegram Editorial page, Saturday, May 19, 2012, edition entitled “Fracas With the Feds”.    Of course, the lament was directed at the Prime Minister.

From the time Newfoundland entered Confederation, every Premier has felt ignored by the federal government; Smallwood had a running battle with Diefenbaker, Peckford with Trudeau and Chretien, Wells with Mulroney and now, Dunderdale with Harper. Do you see a trend?

Newfoundlanders and Labradorians seem to think that Ottawa wakes up every morning hell bent on screwing us.  Somehow, we can’t seem to figure this out:  Ottawa simply wakes up.  That’s it.  They are not hell bent on ‘screwing us’; Ottawa just doesn’t think of us, at all!

After more than sixty years in confederation, we still don’t get it.  Well, it’s time that you get it!  Think of this as boot-camp for the politically naïve.

Let’s start at the beginning.

Telegram Article: A BIG MAChiavellian Diatribe

Talk about contrasts. The Editor of the Saturday, May 19^th edition of the Telegram must have had that thought when he situated two opinion pieces on opposing pages containing very opposite views; one, an article by Brendan Sullivan, a former provincial government economist, called, “Muskrat Falls: how much are you prepared to pay?” and the other by Cathy Bennett, entitled, “Making the right decision, a former Nalcor board member speaks out”. 

Sullivan’s item deals with the singular issue of the high cost of Muskrat Falls power (27.7 – 40.5 cents per KWh compared with 10.4 cents per KWh, right now), and suggests Nalcor needs to look at an on-island solution. Bennett’s purpose is to defend Nalcor’s staff.     

Ms. Bennett writes, “I believe the work Nalcor has completed has an attention to detail and a discipline to best practice management that has positioned Nalcor as a world class corporation”. 

Ms. Bennett feels it is necessary to defend the professionalism of Nalcor staff.  Why?  Could it be because someone has exaggerated their expertise?  The fact is, no one has ever questioned Nalcor’s passion, professionalism or commitment, to their work or to their province.  But, some have correctly pointed out that Nalcor’s former incarnation, Newfoundland Hydro, has not built a major project since Cat Arm was constructed in the 1980s, which, by the way, went way over the original estimates. That’s thirty years ago!

Surely Cathy Bennett has not been influenced by the inaccurate belief, voiced by no less a personage than  Premier Dunderdale on VOCM's open line show, that it was the experts at Nalcor who built the Churchill Falls project, rather than Brinco?  Such a claim is, of course, a preposterous case of 'gilding the lily'.

Is it not a legitimate question to enquire how Nalcor is suddenly replete with the expertise for a project of the size and complexity of Muskrat Falls?

THE PUBLIC SECTOR PENSION PROMISE IS JUST THAT!

Uncle Gnarley was in a reflective mood.  He had difficulty getting Jos Arnell out of his mind.  Mostly, he was distressed that she felt vulnerable, perhaps even tormented, that her small pension might be in jeopardy. He knew she was one, isolated case, among thousands!

Declared Uncle Gnarley, “there is a larger issue at stake with this pension business”. 

“Nav”, he said, pausing, until he was sure he held his attention, “I have ‘Statement IV’ on page 5 of the Budget Details for the current fiscal year right in front of me.  Do you have any idea how large the ‘Unfunded Pension and Retirement Benefits Liability’ will be at the end of this fiscal year?” Nav feigned ignorance, knowing that he would soon be reminded anyway.  “Would you believe me, if I said $5.6 billion? Yep, $5.6 billion”, Gnarley repeated for emphasis. 

“Know what else, Gnarley demanded?   It did not even get mentioned in the Minister’s address; you have to dig for it in the budget details. When the Minister of Finance says the public debt is $8.7 billion, he knows that figure is actually much higher…what’s the phrase we economists are fond of, ‘lies, damn lies and statistics’.  Fits what this Minister is saying perfectly, growled Gnarley.  This fiscal year, alone, he ranted, the unfunded pension and the post-retirement benefits liabilities increased by a net figure of $467 million.  He was clearly frustrated.  And, the public sector unions let him get away with it!  There must be a ‘turnip’ allegory here, suggested Gnarley, and I’m not the one who fell off the turnip truck!” 

PR REHAB NOT 'TIDDLY WINKS'

Uncle Gnarley had put behind him the levity of his evening at the Royal Society of Old Farts.  Today, he seemed more pensive, indeed, quite self-possessed. The ‘Old Farts’ had given him a break from his worrying over the Muskrat Falls project. Now, he was ready, once more, to get his mind around, what he termed, ‘this dangerous venture’.

“Nav”, Uncle Gnarley, exploded, “I don’t understand these numbskulls.  How could they place our beloved province in such jeopardy”?

“I am thinking, Nav, I need to revive my public speaking career. I am a bit long in the tooth to be carrying out such a project.  But I prefer to be a virus on the government than viral on You Tube, he quipped”.

But Uncle Gnarley, I responded, did you not hear that the government is actually hosting a few public meetings to explain the Muskrat project and they are going to send out a pamphlet in the ‘Go Bag’.  Isn’t that enough, afterall?

Gnarley, glared, as only he could, and spat: “forced to put on a charade, is more like it.  They see a letter to the editor in The Telegram complaining that the Minister of Natural Resources needs “PR Rehab” and they run to cover their arses”.

Uncle Gnarley Addresses Annual Meeting ‘Royal Order of Old Farts’.

My Friends:

Finally, I get to address one of the most maligned groups in our Province. 

My mission, is to correct the erroneous impression that you are causing the unpleasant aroma that has become so pervasive, recently.  It is an impression with which you have been saddled, both in the media, and with certain groups.  The truth, my friends, is right under our noses.

My comments speak to the need for government to take responsibility for this unpleasant aroma.  Government should seek the necessary medication, and swallow it, hard.  It just won’t do to blame the very people on whom the aromas have the greatest negative effects. 

I speak to you at a fortuitous time for it has become evident that the people, themselves, keenly acknowledge that an odor is pervading the land; happily, they also are increasingly awareness of its source.

This realization usually follows an election, when people have a tendency to second guess themselves.  It is a perfectly normal reaction; voter remorse is an all too common fact of democratic life.

THE BUDGET A GREAT SHELL GAME SAYS UNCLE GNARLEY

“I like taking my daily constitutional.  In fact, Nav, I walked the other day, along my favourite coast line, Cape Spear, when I spied two mates paddling along in those ‘tippy’ boats; kayaks, I believe, you call them. 

“I might not have noticed but for the commotion that was evident, both on sea and in the air; there were, in fact, no fewer than two offshore vessels engaged in manoeuvres with fast rescue craft within easy reach and a helicopter airborne; my first thought was that you, Nav, were out for a little sport and took the entire Newfoundland navy for protection”!

Somehow, I knew no compliment would be forthcoming!

UNCLE GNARLEY ON 'JM' AND MODELS (Part II)

(In the last item, Uncle Gnarley reviewed JM’s submission to the PUB and comments on Nalcor’s use of inappropriate econometric modeling resulting in an incorrect determination of electrical demand to justify building the Muskrat Falls project.) 

Uncle Gnarley continues his narrative:

“Now, Newfoundlanders are not that different from Albertans or Torontonians, or the British or the Scots, Uncle Gnarley offered. Like the rest of the world, we have purchased all sorts of modern conveniences; but, in the same way your car needs less gas today to drive one kilometer, technology did not stand still in the electrical field either.  What is interesting, is the fact that many of these appliances need less electricity to operate now than they did just a couple of years ago. So, even you, Nav”, Uncle Gnarley delighted in emphasizing, “can see how the problem begins to build”. 

Add to this the fact, if you will, that 33% of our population will be about 65 years old by 2025 (we’re a group not exactly preoccupied with having babies at our age are we, laughed Uncle Gnarley heartily, as if both to mock Nalcor and recall some misspent years).  Recognize, too, that our rural areas are being decimated literally in front of our eyes! Given these and many other considerations, Nav, the problem of forecasting becomes vast, indeed”.

“Now the kicker is, as our man JM points out, Nalcor wants to extrapolate, based upon the demand forecast for 2010-2029, the power required for the years 2029-2067.  Now, that’s a mugs game, if ever there was one”.

UNCLE GNARLEY ON 'JM' AND MODELS (Part 1)

The large and thoughtful mantle of Uncle Gnarley came awake just as I, too, was regaining consciousness.  The bottle of Springbank, Gnarley’s favourite of ‘beneficial vapors’ had worked its magic and gave us both a little respite from each other’s insistent consideration of the Muskrat Falls issue. 

I had almost regretted removing the cork, in the first place, except I knew that this particular ‘elixir’ was one which improved his normally obnoxious demeanor. 

Knowing Gnarley, he likely felt that, with every sip, he was exacting proper reward just for sharing his enormous intellectual assets. 

“Now, Nav”, said Uncle Gnarley, in a less than perfect Scottish brogue, “pour me another ‘wee dram’ and I will finish off my comments on this fellow, JM”.  As I did so, Gnarly proceeded to recite his dissertation.

Uncle Gnarley on Objectivity and Altruism

“Nav”, says Uncle Gnarley, “there are still some serious economists who prowl the halls of academe”.  “Of course”, I volunteered, “our very own university boasts more than a few”.   “Yes”, says Gnarley, “several good ones, in fact; one or two who taught with me in the Department of Economics, are probably still around”.

“One of them is quite an advocate for Muskrat”, I ventured. “He seems to think the project is better than sliced bread, though he did seem to be a bit confused as to whether the cost of the transmission line was included in his numbers.  That’s a bit like buying a car and not being sure if it includes the motor, isn’t it, Uncle Gnarley”?  Needling the old Professor was a favourite pastime and I seldom passed up an opportunity to keep in check the ego of one who was deeply proud of his years engaged in the subject. “Do all you economists add up numbers that way”, my harangue continued, knowing I would pay a dear price later for such insolence.

Uncle Gnarley was completely non-plussed by my sudden charge on his profession.  “Now Nav, don’t confuse advocate and academic, as perhaps that professor may have; advocate and academic can be one and the same, but they rarely are”. “By jing”, says Gnarley, “the data had better be compelling when you try to do both.  There is a big risk of conflict”.