Thursday, 28 June 2018

CHES CROSBIE TESTED: "MISTAKE" TO REPLACE MADNESS?

The recent Telegram interview with newly-minted Tory leader Ches Crosbie leaves a disturbing impression of how he will address the challenges of a Party recently described on this Blog as “broken”.

The Telegram article saw Crosbie shifting the blame for the Muskrat Falls project onto the Liberals. “What they should have done was make sure that a proper stopgo analysis was done as soon as they got into office. They frittered that opportunity away,” he was quoted as saying. Crosbie is correct on the point, but he needs to deal with the ghastly mistakes of his own Party before he is ready to throw stones at his rival.

Not to his credit, Crosbie asserted: “… PCs are like everyone else in this world: we’re only human. If mistakes were made we’ll have to take the approach that that was then, and this is now,” he told the reporter.

Crosbie could be forgiven if Muskrat was actually just a “mistake”. But his assertion barely dignifies civility. Indeed, the view puts him at risk of falling into the same cesspool of deceit occupied by every recent Tory leader from Danny Williams to Paul Davis. 

It is not just that all of them were reckless with the Treasury — as much as with the truth — or that they offended fundamental principles bearing on disclosure, transparency and oversight. It’s not even that their lack of civility towards legitimate criticism was offensive. Crosbie forgets that literally every leg of the business case for the project has fallen apart. Construction estimates, electricity demand forecast, oil price forecast, management capability, Water Management Agreement — not one has survived even the construction phase of the project. Not a single one.


For that reason, it seems absurd for the neophyte politician to have also asserted that “his party made decisions based on the best information available at the time.”
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The “best information” to which Crosbie refers was given by not just one but two senior Panels — the Joint Federal/Provincial Environmental Panel and the PUB — and ignored.  In so doing, the Tory leadership skewered a bright economic future for this place.

No one expects new political party leaders to have all the answers, especially given the enormity of our fiscal problems, including Muskrat. But reasonableness also suggests that a ‘new broom’ will not attempt to excuse the inexcusable, as Crosbie is attempting.

Understandably, accountability is not popular among partisans; any attempt to clean house will be resisted at every turn. But when the stench of recent leadership is so odious that it cannot be allowed to co-exist with a style of governance that is values-based — one we expect Crosbie to be guided by — it is incumbent on him to act.

Welcome to the challenge of leadership, Sir.

The defeat of most Tory Members in the last election has not voided the influence of the Williams tribe. Besides, the elephant in the room — Williams’ legacy — is inseparable from the growing questions that overhang the project sanction process. 

If Crosbie is content to carry the can for Danny Williams, I suggest to him: good luck with that.

In truth, he will not be capable in Opposition any more than as head of the Government. The conflict between the ‘elephant’ and doing right by the public is simply too large.

In any democratic polity, the official Opposition is an integral part of the process of informing the public; its job is to explain problems, giving them context and dimension. They are expected to challenge the Government and to expose the absence of leadership.

Don’t forget, Premier Dwight Ball didn’t become feckless only when he arrived at the 8th Floor. The Liberals miserably failed to face down the Tory Government inside or outside the House of Assembly.

Was the process made difficult by the Tories? Yes. Was it impossible? No. It just wasn’t politically expedient for the Liberals to burn much political capital on a project the public supported. They were not willing to risk bursting the bubble that Danny Williams had inflated.

When Ball became Premier and Davis took over as Opposition leader, only the Government’s colour changed; the ineffectiveness did not end. It was worse than dull — it was conflicted.

Faced with confirmation from Consultants E&Y and from (selectively) frank-talking Stan Marshall, that Muskrat was a failure before it began, how could effective Opposition from Davis be reasonably expected? It wasn’t in him to do the honourable thing and resign. It wasn’t in the Party’s remnants to push him out or to recognize that his lingering presence was only causing the democratic deficit to worsen.

While Ches Crosbie is not an elected Member in the House of Assembly, as Party leader he is still expected to perform — to set new markers for a Party whose performance under Williams, Dunderdale, Marshall and Davis justifies less a period of rejuvenation than a day of judgement.

Admittedly, being leader of anything — a political Party or the neighbourhood social club — is not easy. Crosbie must have known that. He knew that he would be leading a Party in trouble; one that had blundered badly. Now that Party wants another chance — even before the public has been made fully aware of their misdeeds, for which the Liberals are largely to blame.

Perhaps Crosbie is vying for the uninformed vote. If that is not the case, he can’t justifiably ask for anyone’s support until he can tell them that the culprits have been banished.

Crosbie should quit the talking and start shaking things up. If the PC Party is ever to be worthy of a second chance, he must shake out the self-aggrandizing blunderers who have delivered the province into an abyss.

Crosbie must stop this sordid business of dragging around Danny’s and Kathy’s baggage.

“Best information available”? Crosbie must have been talking to Nalcor.

I would offer this simple advice: No leader should be so burdened that they are unable to carry the can for the public. 

186 comments:

  1. UG...you hit the nail squarely on the head again. And this will not be my first time saying these words on this blog. The decisions made, "WERE BASED ON THE BEST INFORMATION AVAILABLE AT THE TIME". These words need to be stricken from the NL vocabulary for the foreseeable future. Anyone caught attempting to use them should be tried in a court of law for treason. Any politician caught using them should be tarred and feathered and placed directly over the Hollywood stacks. Have you not heard of simple statements like if you don't have the information, go get it. It is not like Rumsfield, Bushes buddy, that it is an unknown known, or an unknown, unknown, it was a known, simple as that, even for simple guys like me, and many others that we did not need the power and it was not the least cost option. If the learned judge is willing to accept any advice at all from the average joes and janes, it should be that simple piece of advice in the inquiry. And I might add, another great defence used by criminals in a court of law is, "I DONT RECALL". These two incriminating cleaties, should be permentally posed in the rooms of inquiry, and set up in such a way, that the microphones immediately turn off, or explode in front of those attempting to used these words. The prime candidates for these words will be, our famous Locke, CD, TM, PD, and now Ches Crisbie. Yes, and we blame all governments, for this boondoggle. But you cannot have the guy that pushed someone overboard, blame the guy who may have been able to pull him in, and think he is now ezeronated, for his death in the first place says Joe blow.

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  2. Pathetic isn't it? We need a new political party and enough good people to visit the 40 political districts, give presentations and generate some hope. Getting elected with a good platform ought not to be too hard -- districts are 14,000 people or less. It amazes me that the NDP can't even capitalize on the extreme dislike of the Liberals and PCs. Some people here in the Confederation building think that Danny would be re-elected if he ran again. The platform needs to address the BIG things (demographics, debt, relationship with Canada, control of fisheries and cleaning up the cronies in the civil service. Unfortunately, we are more likely to be arguing over plastic bags.

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  3. I don’t want to vote PC or LIB, but the NDP aren’t doing anything to build their party. I am frustrated that we don’t have any good choices for 2019. Not voting, for me, is not an option. Given our poor choices, I’ll go NDP, but grudgingly. I really wish that the NDP would stand up and start working at putting candidates in place. Right now, they are the only ones who aren’t tarred by MF.

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    1. False...they were on board as well. Ed Hollett covered that in some detail.

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  4. And is there a significant difference in Crosbie's position that decisions were based on the "best information available", and on the MF public inquiry's terms of reference which directs Commissioner Leblanc to "inquire into...the consideration by Nalcor of options...including whether Nalcor's determination that the Muskrat Falls Project was the least cost option ... was reasonable with the knowledge that was available at the time".

    Both are only marginally different ways (get-out-of-jail free cards --- one political, the other quasi-judicial) of ensuring there is a path to putting a superficially legitimate face on what the designers and enablers knew from the beginning was a pig.

    Not our political and justice system's best days.

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  5. Ches says:My response is, PCs are only human, if mistakes were made...and we'll let the inquiry tell us about that.....
    And "that his party made decisions based on the best information available at the time",and " if it turns out to be the wrong advice, then all I can say is we acted in good faith".
    He says "we could have created a legacy fund for rainy days... ", but he doesn't lay blame at the feet of Danny Williams or Kathy Dunderdale.
    He says maybe we've learned a lesson from that now. Heracles preaches about the fable of the ox and the frog. Have we learned a lesson?
    What a load of horse shit from this Rhodes Scholar. He says the Liberals are mostly to blame for not doing a proper stop-go analysis when they took over the boondoggle.
    We know father John supported Muskrat. Did Ches call for a proper stop-go analysis 2 years ago?
    He quotes Dr Haggie's phrase " We have to hang together or we'll hang separately".
    When during the American Revolution, the British said all the ring leaders in America had committed treason. Treason was a high crime and would get the death penalty by hanging. Those that signed on to the revolt, Adams, Jefferson, Washington, Franklin etc were all prosperous and influential men. They put their fortunes and necks on the line. If they broke rank, the revolt would fail. Franklin, I think, a witty and smart guy, told the others: Either we hang together or we'll hang separately. A very fitting and sober statement.
    So here Ches and others ,they play the game of Liberals and PCs hanging together, blaming each other, and hoping the Inquiry blames no one, a get out of jail free , as says M Adams.
    So Ches will hang together with Danny, Ed Martin, and other sleeveens.
    The public, I suggest would want then all, PCs Liberals, and some NDP hang separately.First we need the evidence to convict them. Did they just make honest mistakes or commit high crimes, or any crime?
    Ed Martin just came out of his ground hog hole to announce "I told you so, Stan Marshall says Muskrat long term can give Nfld some of the lowest power rates in the country". Martin should hang first, and Stan second, if Stan actually said or meant that.Ed wants to hang together with Stan, and maybe that's ok with Stan? Birds of a feather?
    Of course we have no job openings for hangmen, so what other solution? 40 years confined to Baccalieu Island?
    PF

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  6. It's all about Toryism. PCs Libs, once in power succumb to the "Trickle Down" management style. It's pot and kettle. I agree with Ches referring to both Parties as Tweedle. Mediocrity. He, Ball, MPs all. NL future is politically mediocre!

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  7. Just a kid. Stuck his finger in the light socket to see if it was live;

    http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/ed-martin-heartened-muskrat-falls-1.4725899

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  8. The lack of accountability on Crosbie's part is galling. The baldfaced lies coming out of Marshall and Martin yesterday was horrific. A bit of spin is one thing but to say we are building a great asset and going to have among cheapest rates in the country? Apparently buying high and selling low is a winning strategy for these clowns. Unbelievable.

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    1. We can have better rates post 2041 but it will have nothing to do with the negative damage to rates done by the Muskrat fiasco but rather the end of the terrible deal on the upper CF and the return of the assets to its rightful owners along with the water rights which were contracted away to PQ for next to nothing.

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    2. Anon @ 17:17
      CF will never be "returned" to NL. Our only salvation concerning MF is that we will not get full control of CF as it will belong to HQ as our penance for them to take over MF. I'd bet the deal is done but not announced.

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    3. I agree Wayne, CF is gone. The old adage "all things work out in the end" is true, but usually all things work out after you paid the price.

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  9. This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

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    1. Yes, and believe he upped his argument saying Nfld, yesterday saying Nfld will have one of the lowest electricity rates in the country, to now eventually the lowest.
      Guess that is relaiable as MF being the least cost, when many alternatives not even evaluated.
      And VOCM question has 86 % saying Nfld Power should not be qauranteed a rate of return. I being a Fortis share owner figure they should , but a much lower rate seeing their silence and enabler of the boondoggle.

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    2. Plus we are going to save about $100 million on Holyrood because of recall. Imagine that...spend $13 billion to save $100 million.

      More importantly we are getting out of the skiing business because it cost the taxpayers about $1million per year. According to Minister Osborne the government is probably not the best operator of a ski resort. Perhaps that sentiment should apply to anything government touches such as being in the hydro business, the oil business, the liquor business, etc.

      Keith

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    3. And I agree we should be out of the ski resort. Now if government could get out of the rooms and sell the old colonial building also then we would maybe see some results.

      One million a year from a $7 billion budget isn't going to mean diddly squat. It has been the jealousy of the NE Avalon that has blown the whole Marble Mountain out of proportion. CompuSult in Mount Pearl has gotten more per measly job every year than Marble did. There should be a ruling. No subsidies, grants or tax breaks for any business of any kind. Period

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  10. Peng2 wants to defend Stan he said recently. Ok please defend Stan's statements yesterday.

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    1. Anony @ 20:20:

      I have never defended SM---just said he was better that his predecessor and did a decent job considering what he took over, SM was better equipped for leading a MF type project than EM et al and at was the first on the gov side to call it wrong(he even said Fortis wouldn't be involved in it around 2008-2009).

      I have disagreed with him in the past, as I do now. Check my previous postings and be factual.

      PENG2

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    2. Peng2, Seems you said recently you are prepared to debate the performance of SM, which to me suggested you are very supportive of him, again on the points as you do here, which is rather mild defense. Better than Ed Martin, who would deny that? Said Fortis wouldn'nt be involved, big deal.
      As to Stan now, and his statements at Soldiers Pond this week:
      1. can MF lead us to the having some of the lowest power rated in Canada in the future? If so, what time frame? Ed Martin on NTV has taken that further to say we will have the LOWEST rates in the future, which means lower than HQ, which is now 7 or 8 cents! What dope is Ed smoking?
      2. Does the Labrador and maritime Link give us , especially on the Avalon , more reliability of power?
      3. Where is the power going now that is coming from Labrador, 45 MW, when we have more than enough island hydro in the summer?
      4 Are we saving 50,000.00 a day with this Labrador power now, if so , explain how we are?
      As to SM in the past, what did Nfld Power do to counter the false assumptions of Nalcor in the PUB hearings or otherwise. They having expertise themselves and more from the parent company Fortis. They could have given big assistance to the naysayers, but was silent.
      And should Stan Marshall, a major Fortis shareholder, publically call for restraint, and support the Consumer Advocate on NP present rate of return as to the present rate increase application?
      PF

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    3. PF:
      I am prepared to debate SM--we agree better than EM, but he was also on the record pre-MF as saying Fortis wouldn't be involved, this statement alone should have raised questions but once again the DM machine told the 'boondoogle buffoon' and the populace bought it....

      I wont address 1-4 again-->I disagree with SM on those items and my opinions have been stated many times before.

      As for why SM and Fortis didn't speak up pre-MF---why would they? I really don't understand the argument that after the populace got what they wanted(as proven by their vote and how they damn near crucified anyone who dissented) why anyone who worked there should feel sorry now.

      MF is a problem the populace brought onto themselves---they brought into a snake-oils salesman crap and we now pay for it. I we the populace don't smarten up we will make the same mistakes on Gull and other projects in our future---we have to own the MF gaff and accept we f'ed up.....

      PENG2

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  11. Re: Crosbie, the Six Million Dollar Man Martin, the dithering Ball and the rest of that unremarkable ilk...

    NLers truly are their own worst enemies.

    They know just enough to be dangerous.

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  12. One of Ed Martin's claims is that the Labrador infeed will reduce green house gases from Holyrood.
    Now these figures may be off, but it seems Holyrood would use at present 1.5 million barrels of fuel per year. Offshore producing what 300 million per year and they want to increase production to 600 million per year?So we put 20 times more into the market that Holyrood uses, and want to double that to 40 times, besides, Holyrood could have been reduced to almost zero through efficiency and conservation at very low costs. SO how green is Ed, really? He uses any false assumption now as in the past and spins a tale. And govn wants to use the carbon tax to feed back to the oil gas industry as well, instead of to households to mitigate power rates.
    WA

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  13. With the right combination of conservation (yes reducing your energy consumption on a large scale is possible-just ask any Swede) such as graduated billing, proper insulation and other initiatives, alternative heating options such as air to air and ground to air systems and wood, wind with battery and pumped hydro storage and another system that has been around for some time that could have satisfied the need of isolated communities called a wood fueled Stirling engine which also produces home heat and hot water we could have easily have met the energy needs of this province but because of the arrogance of the PC's and their Us against the ROC policy we are now bankrupt trying to build a dam to satisfy our energy needs. This is not the first time we are in this position. Brian Peckford essentially did the same thing when he signed away the Hibernia royalties in exchange for a few short term construction jobs. Ottawa had to come the rescue with a $1.8 Billion rescue because of that disastrous deal. I guess history does repeat itself.

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    1. You are absolutely right on the electric heat rant and the saddest part is we are still doing it. For years we basically burnt oil at Holyrood to generate electricity that was converted back into heat via the baseboard heater. This is a simple fact ignored in the whole energy debate and holds its truth in that the Holyrood generators are very rarely operating between the end of April and the start of October or when households and businesses are turn up the thermostatic at the start of the cold weather. It is one of the reasons we so desperately needed Muskrat Falls but the alternative of converting homes away from electric heat to more efficient systems such as air to air and ground to air wasn't even considered. Thus we are stuck with the Boondoggle for generations.

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  14. As Ball would say, the GULL of that 6 million $$$$ man to show his face on tv is appalling. Or maybe we could call him the 13$ billion ashole. And imagine having the audacity to carry on the same hogwash about how good muskrat will be for us down the road, is this just the beginning of what we are going to see in the next year or so before an election, and the inquiry. I say nip this in the bud, boy and tell the brave fearless media to get it the hell off the shelf, and if they have nothing bad, and true to say about those traitors, then say nothing. Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, well I like to say, " it ain't gona happen". Are we going to be bamboozled again by the same clowns, masquerading as world class experts, and allow them to spin their lies and half truths. It's bad enough for elected officials, at least we put them there, to screw up royally, but for little "do their bidding emboiciles" to be screwing us, makeing away with the jack pot and then come back telling how good it will be for our future, have they no shame. We see similar shanninsgins in the courts every day, but at a lower level of breaking the law, like ripping off a innocent person who had renovations done on their house, and we call them scum. What do we call someone who rips off the entire province and the future of those unborn, do you have a word for them. My word is simply, hang your head in shame buddy, and never look an innocent person straight in the eye again. Least cost option, and we need the power, my ass. And a simple word for Stan the man, you are no saviour, so keep your mouth shut too. Don't you start the lies, half truths, and spin too. Don't go trying to sell "snow to the Eskimos", as the saying use to be, we are not all dummies, and we have been down this road before. So do your job and shut up. It's like this, if you and I don't speak up, these traitors will come out like shining stars, and thumb their noses at us in a couple of years, and say how good they were for our future. Is that what you want ask Joe blow???

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    1. If you notice, Joe, CBC Here and Now very day on the weather portion constantly display Take Charge is the upper left of the TV screen, (this besides other ads for them), so constant income from for CBC for ads from the power companies. And that CBC ad income skimmed from our power bills by Nfld Power and Nfld Hydro, and for a near useless and fake news Take Charge conservation program, second worse in all of Canada.How INDEPENDENT can CBC be questioning the scallywags, Martin and others, when taking ad money constantly? Debbie Cooper parroting the words of Marshall etc, feeding us the fake news, no investigative journalism.

      Winston

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    2. It is not good enough for Stan Marshall to say in the media that this will all work out when we are facing a doubling of power rates once the m-rat project is on line and producing power sometime next year 2019. Before that the big dc line has now been commissioned and we are subject to hefty increases right now from it.
      Stan Marshall and the government must tell us exactly how all this will all work out??? The media are shirking their responsibilities by not asking these tough questions or are the questions easy but the answers not so easy for the government to be forthright about.

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    3. Winston. As I recall it was David Cochrane of the CBC who broke the story in the first place. No one else ever dared stand up to Danny Boy.

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    4. The long and short of this is that nothing can be done now. All revenues from the offshore will be used to shore up the Boondoggle leaving zero money for anything else.

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  15. OPERATION TAKE CHARGE;....JULY 1 , HIGH NOON , TURN OFF YOUR MAIN POWER BREAKER TO YOUR HOUSE OR COMMERCIAL BUILDING, 1/2 hr good, but longer if you wish.
    As suggested here on UG on June 23, and commented on by Levy Payer, and Joe Blow. Someone may have picked up on this. Yesterday , Andrew Murphy? I think mentioned some thing similar on VOCM . Today it is the question of the day on VOCM :Will you be participating in a protest against power rate increase by turning off your power on Canada Day? VOCM returning to the Voice of the common Man, I wonder?
    So far at 8;30 629 votes but was 803 votes 15 minute later. 59 % will do it.
    Last week Joe and I figured maybe a dozen would follow. Now it may be thousands, about to go viral? How about more support here on UG?
    AG

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    1. Pat Daley needs to bring this up on his show this morning, as many do not follow Question of the Day

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    2. many people do not listen to Danny's mouth piece called VOCM. The Fox news of NL.

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    3. That is correct, VOCM is just a mouthpiece for the government of the day, always has been, always will be. Little more than a propaganda radio station of a northern banana republic with its "news" articles dumbed down to a Grade 2 reading level and delivered in manner so as to facilitate the messaging the sitting government wants the proles to hear.

      CBC Here & Now with its best-before-date media elite repeating redundant "news" that, thanks to internet, is long-since stale by the show's supper-hour broadcast time... is not much better.

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    4. Their polls are often designed to prop up their ratings more so than a statistical analysis.

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    5. Let me add my own support to those who take such affirmative action, in the face of evidence of malfeasance regarding the promotion, planning, execution of the Muskrat development. There were less costly, and damaging alternatives.

      Remember the Beaumont Hamel sacrifice. Vive Canada.

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  16. Imagine....a full 33 percent that responded to vocm question of the will not participate in a protest to govt. of increasing power rates!!! These are the same people that love to see the 6 million $ dollar man on tv, and would reelect Dannie again. But in a democracy, guess everyone has the right to do as they please. Guess they can afford to pay their power bills, wether it be 100$, a 1000$, 10,000$ per month. As most of them will be kicking up their heels in Florida for the winter months, and laughing at us silly buggers paying for them. But that is what a democracy is all about, people can do what they please. Thucydides said 2, 500 years ago, and is still true today; " the strong do what they will, the weak suffer as they must". But even worst than that, is those who cannot afford their heat bills to double, but think they can, simple to support those who can, these are the real fools, and don't even know it. Being shafted by their rich buddies, and too stunned to know it. These are the ones that I take pity on. These are not the elete, just the "wanta bees". You know who you are!!! Just gutless. Yup, sit on the fence, and let your legs dangle on both side just to impress your rich neighbour. And I include the brave fearless media in that catagory. We have a lot of that type of tradition. But as I said, all allowed in a democracy. But, it is the other weaker crowd that will have to fight to keep their democracy and yours too. So keep on voting with your fingers and not your brain, says Joe blow.

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    1. I'll be moving! And I suspect many, many others will follow.

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  17. I would ask Ches; Will his administration pick up the "Ball", and admonish the "Foote", shame the "Shamus", and build the required infrastructure in my old home town Fortune. Certainly there is slush bonus not paid out on the Boondoggle which could be re-directed to this potential cash cow;

    http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/no-cars-on-st-pierre-miquelon-ferries-fortune-1.4727619

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    1. Just as a side note, yesterday was the first flight of a new weekly non-stop service between St-Pierre and Paris - using a B737-700.

      http://www.air-journal.fr/2018-07-03-premier-vol-direct-entre-paris-et-st-pierre-et-miquelon-5201120.html

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  18. Shouldn't the government of France foot the bill for the advancement of the tourism industry on St Pierre and Miquelon?

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    1. Mutual trade benefits, shared costs. Have you visited the Burin? Wind energy opportunities would drop some juice for the baseboards waste on the Avalon. Increased tourist $ including petro sales would pay for a few windmills built in Canada, (Bull Arm), and divert expensive Lab West transmission to local renewables. What is Ches's Energy Plan? All that Imported converters, transformers, cables, metals, turbines, switchgear, etc. does little to improve balance of trade, as you already know.

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  19. Hi guys,

    The fact that the Labrador link has been energized from CF power made me think about what may have been one of the hidden motivation for MF...

    For years, CFLCo have been stealing power from UC and sold it as interruptible supply. Still, there is a minimum of time the provider must warn his client before cutting him off, that delay being 1 hour in many markets.

    HQ detected the situation when a few time, they asked for increased delivery of power and CFLCo have been unable to provide it.

    In the judgement about the block theory, HQ received the declaration that all power except for Twinco and Recall blocks was HQ's and CFLCo was not allowed to make such sales. To fix the problem, HQ started to put tags on 100% of the power transported by the transmission line, making it impossible for CFLCo to hide more of these sales.

    Now with that link, it may be possible for CFLCo to start steeling again. Such a plan could explain many things.
    --Revenues will be higher than those in all the numbers we saw so far because the stolen power will be sold over these links, adding to the revenues.
    --To go with that project because it was the only one to build the required transmission line for re-selling the power stolen from UC instead of say a wind farm on the rock or efficency
    --The need to keep so much secrecy because the core of the business was illegal
    --The one who would do that could be considered as the heroe who "fixed that 1969 contract"
    --And maybe more...

    Just an idea of course, but one that unfortunately would make sense in that gigantic non-sense that MF is...

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    1. Heracles, seems no one is interested in talking to you , but this matter of stealing power, is not far fetched, and I would believe you. Also because Nfld power and Nfld Hydro misrepresent power saving from much of what they promote on the Take Charge conservation Plan here, one might say it is stealing from the consumers here. So if they do it to fellow Nflders, why not to HQ. It is shameful, it seems to me.
      Now I am not forgetting your false statement against me as to selling and installing minisplit heatpumps, and I hope you continue your research on that, as you have not recanted. no rush. Dig deep.
      But you and PENG2 agree that MF dam and spillgates is not the same as the original MFs, so can effect the extent of the flood at Mud lake last year. So 3 of us at odds with Jim Gordon who believes Nalcor played no part. Jim is right that MF has a very small reservoir, but still play a part.
      Winston Adams

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    2. How is stealing power from the Upper Churchill going to fix the problem of paying for Muskrat Falls? No matter which way you look at it the bulk of the costs from the Boondoggle is fixed capital costs that will be paid for or declare bankruptcy. It looks like it is time to pay the piper and divert all royalties from the offshore to shore it up and let the province finance everything else from all the other sources of revenues. This is the situation we are in and we have no other avenue for escape.

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    3. Hi Anon,

      It is true that even with some extra money from such a scheme, the plan is and will remain a disaster. The return expected from re-selling power illegaly can not be large enough to compensate for the fiasco. It is just that understanding the original mindset of people may help found evidence or who is the ultimate responsible.

      WInstant, about the effect of the new construction on the flooding, different is not equal to worst. As such, I have no evidence that the changes created by the construction at MF aggravated or caused the flooding.

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    4. Heracles31:

      I don't understand how a possible theft of power from UC could occur. Also, I would offer that if HQ called today with an increased demand a supply could only be given in 24-48hrs give or take---increasing supply isn't an instanteous action and there are considerations of ops on turbine.

      You will need to provide me with more before I accept that. As for MF being a way to cover a theft---that really defies logic.

      PENG2

      Delete
    5. Hercules, I don't know if you are throwing out a red herring to garner comments, or not. I don't have the technical to know if it is at all possible to steal power or even power poles. But I do know, a few years back a guy was able to mount his meter to his dwelling and ran the meter back wards as he used power from NL power for a month, but was caught, so no monetary gain. But I revert back to some of my initial analogy of water flows, and those up stream having an advantage over those downstream in raising cattle and livestock, by cutting of the water supply or maybe putting poison in it, especially in the mid west to gain an advantage over your competitors. It was considered fair and legal then. Not sure about today in hydro. But as you have told us HQ has more power than they can sell, and they spill UC water, then I say to cfllco, if possible, STEAL THE POWER, better than letting it flow down the rive to no ones benifit, and if it don't pay for muskrat, then it will be a great benifit to us, and all, instead of burning dirty bunker C at holyrood. Being surplus, it cost HQ nothing, and it may keep our rates lower here on the island, and I don't mean send it to NS or New England states. That's my take says Joe blow, practical as usual.

      Delete
    6. If there was malfeasance on the part of CFLCo to the degree that is would constitute "theft" from HQ, no doubt HQ would direct its formidable legal team to seek a "cease and desist" order as well as restitution in the courts.

      Delete
    7. Peng2, why 24-48 hrs. Holyrood maybe 24 hrs from a cold start, a gas turbine maybe a hour or less,hydro should be fairly quick would it not? Maybe minutes?

      Delete
    8. The fact that CFLCo stole UC power from HQ is indeed true.

      Nalcor "bought" it and exported to the US, obviously using HQ grid w/o paying wheeling fees...

      I brought that exact same subject here, about a year ago. (It was indeed part of that "block" judgement).

      I guess HQ should have their own employees at UC instead of relying on Nalcor's...

      Delete
    9. Anony @ 23:14:

      There is more to it than just opening a gate; somethings to consider are the vane geometry needs to be accounted for across all generators, water spills accounted for, and coordination of the plants output with the grid. Then there is transmission system, and in the case of MF the status of convertor and electrode facilities.

      I am not sure what the delay is at UC from calling for power to production, but I wouldn't say a few minutes-mostly likely hours to a day or so.

      PENG2

      Delete
    10. PENG2, as to the time to increase or decrease power output at MF, you suggest a long time frame, which further puts to question the reliability of MFs as a power source. If we lose an island generator in winter, 50, 100 or 150 Mw, does MFs pick this up quickly (in seconds, minutes, hrs or nearly a day) such that there is not a power outage or load shedding?
      From the PUB filing, a single flashover on the MFs DC line, which is a short term , less than a second event, did not trigger a outage on the island, but simulations had not been conducted as to whether it could survive a second flashover immediately after. And whatever happened to the PUB investigation of the reliability of MFs transmission? Was this shelved, such that such issues are still spectulative?
      I would be surprised if it needs to take hours or a day to increase or decrease output at CF, and likely also depends on the amount of change. For Holyrood and gas turbines, the thermal stress of steam boilers and the stress of firing up gas turbine engines would slow the process of power output, with Holyrood very slow. While I have not had direct experience in hydro power ramp up, I think it would be fast compared to thermal fossil fuel fired systems.
      Winston Adams

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    11. WA:

      The actual procedure of generation adjustment could be fast but only as fast as the other adjustments can be made-ie spillways, reservoirs, plant, grid etc. I don't have my finger on the actual delay--maybe some else does?

      I haven't heard anything new on additional studies for flash etc.

      PENG2

      Delete
    12. Hi guys,

      CFLCo itself acknowledged they were re-selling power from UC. They pretended it was their right, but they have been turned down.

      To do it, they were using the schedule provided by HQ 1 week ahead and updated 24 hours before delivery. They increased the produciton to whatever they sold + HQ request.

      Also, to run a power plant reliably, you must produce more than 100% of what is delivered. One must be ready to face the worst contingency possible at the plant, like the failure of a turbine. For that, the plant always produce 100% of the load + whatever that contingency represents, so when an incident happen, there is still enough power. That reserve was also part of what CFLCo sold instead of keeping it for redundancy as required by operations.

      All of that is explained in the judgement from Justice Castonguay about the block therory. The judgement is dated August 2016, about the same time as the Court of Appeal judgement about the good faith case.

      There is more about this at the Regie de l'Énergie du Québec, where CFLCo complained about how HQ is managing its transport network and that prevent them from doing that.

      So Yes, CFLCo was selling illegaly power produced at CF and it is well documented in official and legal procedures.

      Delete
    13. Lock'em up!

      Delete
    14. FWIW, here's what I wrote on UG (Sept 1st, 2016) about this power theft by Nalcor...

      ------------------------------

      "QSC declared that HQ has the right to purchase any energy produced in excess of the amount specified in the contract"

      On a side note, the ruling also mentioned that (in the past few years) CFLCo secretly sold to Nalcor power in excess of the amount specified in the contract (the Upper Churchill dam actually produces more power than what was envisioned).

      Nalcor then exported that excess power in the US (using HQ power lines without telling HQ/paying usage fees...) 

      When HQ requested CFLCo to provide detailed production stats (to confirms those excess sales...), CFLCo did not respond.

      So this QSC ruling, I guess, puts HQ in a position to sue CFLCo and Nalcor for illegally taking possession of excess power that HQ should been sold to HQ in the first place, and then illegally use HQ power lines to export in the US.

      CFLCo and Nalcor knew very well that this excess power should have been sold to HQ in the first place (otherwise they would not have been so secretive).
      -----------------------------

      Just wondering, is there a reason why there are no HQ employees at CFLCo? (How about having 34% of them?)

      Delete
    15. Note that I mistakenly wrote CF "dam" instead of generating station...

      ;-)

      Delete
    16. I agree with you guys that what you say seems correct, and if so, is neither ethical nor legal it seems. To suggest otherwise is to align with the scallywags that brought us the boondoggle. It indicates the CULTURE of how we condict business and relationships,and it is rotten. And so Nflders have been sold a bill of goods at a bill of 12.7 billion. And we reward chief scallywag Ed Martin with 6 million compensation. We look for the enemy, and it is within this province. Even Joe Blow may reconsider the underhandedness of this, I wonder?
      Winston Adams

      Delete
    17. Hey Joe (@14:20),

      The only spillage that happened at HQ for the last few decades was last fall and it was not at CF. It was in Quebec. Reservoir was full, ready for winter, when about 10x the regular amount of rain dropped in that area in November.

      HQ has extra capacity for base load. This extra is so large that what is well fitted for base load charge ends up enough for peak loads. But CF is not just base load. With its gigantic reservoir, CF is for peak loads, producing much more in peak period (winter) than base periods (summer). So to take peak capacity and re-sell it as base capacity is not smart management and is indeed harmful to HQ. Not enough to compromise its integrity, but still harmful.

      But think about this: who is harmed the worst with that ? HQ who confirmed in court that the amount of power stolen was low enough not to be of long term consequence, or is it Newfoundland and CFLCo who once again prove themselves as not being trust worthy and fighting against HQ instead of collaborating and working on constructive projects ?

      Delete
    18. Heracles31"

      Just how can CFLCO steal power from HQ? From best that I can see HQ owns the transmission and has an ownership stake in the UC facilities and can affect operations.

      Provide a link to the court decision-I'd suggest maybe optimistic interpretation.

      PENG2

      Delete
    19. I wondered this too.
      Now if CF has a capacity of 5400MW and say Nfld has 300 MW of that for use in Labrador, this leaves 5100MW. But suppose HQ only needed 4700MW, this leaves 400MW of surplus capacity such that the reserve is held in the reservoir that can be called upon by HQ. Now suppose Nfld says it is using only 200 MW for Labrador,(but actually using 300) so our 100 MW apparent spare is transported over HQ lines to the USA, so we are selling what we are not entitled to. The 4800 going over the HQ lines is 4700 for HQ and 100 for Nfld (getting Nfld illegal profit)
      Now if HQ during their peak demand ask for their full 5100MW, they expect to get the extra 400 MW. But if so, 5100MW plus 100mw that Nfld is selling illegally, plus the actual 300MW that Labrador is using , this equals 5500MW, which is not possible, it exceeds the capacity of the generators. So Nfld responce is to delay and not explain why they cannot deliver.
      Now the power going over HQ lines is monitored via Current and voltage transformers that feed the meters at the control panel, and this probably recorded. So this showing correctly how much is going that way. The same type of monitoring for power would show what is feeding Labrador. But if HQ does not have access to what is actually going to Labrador, they do not know they are being robbed.
      This is how I see this might be done, and one gets suspicious when calling for power and it cannot be met in a reasonable time.
      If this is correct, generally , and makes sense to average Joe,then good. If wrong, someone correct me and explain how it was done.
      Winston Adams

      Delete
    20. WA:

      Normally, the plant at UC is outputting somewhere between 2700 and 3500MW-that is advertised output on the Churchill sign,I have not seen 5000MW production levels often. Can 5500MW even be transmitted via the QC lines?

      PENG2

      Delete
    21. Wa:

      I should have added that normally plants want to run in the 50-70% range of full capacity long term-otherwise operation at full capacity could have detrimental effects.

      Maybe someone with more hydro plant experience could correct me?

      PENG2

      Delete
    22. I read that CF is 5428 MW with 73.4 % capacity factor. MF is 824MW with about 565 avg cap, or less , and I assume both plants capacity depends on water available on avg. The gas turbine at Holyrood , 100 mw is 123 MW max, I think, but likely less efficient at that higher rating. Motors, generators , transmission, transformers etc can handle full ratings constantly, but I expect most hydro has short term extra capacity to handle peak loads as far as possible. Our wind about 43 % capacity just because wind varies and just sometimes produces at full rating.
      My figures was to try and imagine how one might steal power as Heracles says and why not readily detected, if it can be better explained.
      WA

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    23. This comment has been removed by the author.

      Delete
    24. If you like reading courts rulings, how Nalcor power theft was uncovered is explained here, starting from para 571:

      http://citoyens.soquij.qc.ca/php/decision.php?ID=70AC1804B30B14C1C752A3F6DC993313&page=1

      (if link doesn't work, search Churchill and year 2016 at http://courdappelduquebec.ca/en/judgments/ )

      Happy reading ;-)

      Delete
    25. Ex-military engr....I don't like looking up or reading court rulings, but since you did it, why not give us the explanation in a nutshell, like a few lines, it can't be that complicated....like how much...over what period of time.....what was the momentary value... What penalty imposed by the court....and other significant details. Cheers...average Joe..

      Delete
    26. WA:

      I am thinking more along the lines of issues such as slipway performance, cavitation, waterhammer, harmonic oscillation and generator output/grid balancing-my understanding is operations is usually at 50-70% of peak so that if needed there is overhead room to climb into to avoid such effects. Its not that the turbine cant operate at 100% at high duty cycle; just that if a problem comes up, the only adjustment is downwards and that may not be ideal.

      Maybe I am wrong, its a simple turbine and these are the operational issues I would look for-you think differently?


      PENG2

      Delete
    27. Hi Peng2 and others,

      Ex-mil sent you the link to the decision, so you have it.

      Peng2, yes HQ is the owner and operator of the transmission line. But at first, HQ "made the mistake" to trust CFLCo. For that, they were not monitoring every single KW travelling on the line. When they noticed what CFLCo was doing, they started tagging ALL the power on the line and that allowed them to ensure CFLCo would not do it again. At least, not over this line. The unfortunate consequence is that HQ can no longer trust CFLCo and instead of working with it, now started to fight against it.

      That's why CFLCo was looking for another line over which to re-sell the power stolen form UC.

      Production is scheduled 1 week ahead and confirmed 24 hours before delivery. That's how CFLCo could evaluate how much extra-power they can produce and sell. Still, HQ is entitled to ask for last minute changes and it was when they asked for such adjustments that CFLCo proved itself unable to do it. Stators over heating or other limitations happened and prevented CFLCo from delivering that extra power.

      In the decision, you will see that CFLCo acknowledged they were doing it, but arguing that they were entitled to do it. The court decision told them that no, they are not. The entire production at UC is HQ's, except for the Twinco and Recall blocks.

      Delete
    28. PENG2 , agree generally that mechanical systems best operate at about 70 % capacity, even my minisplit HPS show show higher efficiency at reduced loads, and better to spend an extra 500.00 for a little large model so it operates at less than rated capacity.
      If stators overheating as Heracles says , this seems to suggest operating at or over full rated capacity during those efforts of stealing power , as Heracles says. Given the screwing of the Nfld public by Nalcor on the whole Mf scheme, with false assumptions, and ongoing misleading the public on their near useless Take charge Conservation program, nothing really surprises me. A culture problem as Liberty consultants would say. I suppose they pleaded ignorance and said they had the right to do it.
      Winston

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    29. Hi guys,

      Stator overheating is mentioned at paragraph 771 of the court decision posted above.

      How the production is scheduled and managed is explained from par 492.

      It is from par 558 that the decision talks about interruptible sales by CFLCo and CFLCo admitted they were doing it. Confirmation is in par 574 and again at 635.

      The decision cites Ed Martin explaining how they created Nalcor with the goal to collect more from UC (par 616 and 617).

      So it really looks like MF was motivated more as a transport solution than a production solution...

      Delete
    30. If you google:

      500-17-078217-133

      you'll find the English version of that court decision here, on pub.nf.ca (in PDF)

      Obviously all the paragraph numbers mentioned above also correspond to this English version.

      Delete
    31. New guy entering the thread...

      I found the CFLCo Appeal Argument to the Quebec Judge's Decision to be a pretty convincing read. The HQ fanboys will call it a pack of lies of course.

      http://www.pub.nf.ca/applications/NLH2017GRA/additionalfillings/Undertaking21%20-%202018-04-25.pdf

      AJ - copy and paste the link above into your browser and let us know what you think in a future post comments section.

      Delete
    32. Anon at 22h24

      Hello "new guy" ;-)

      Can you enlight us a little more with those CFLCo arguments that qualify are "pretty convincing read". Like the para number, and what was HQ response to it. (you can copy and paste too).

      Regards

      Delete
  20. Just making reference to my comment, Maurice, and PF in the am of the 28th. Re: how the scroundrals will try and defend themselves before judge Leblanc inquiry. While I agree with you both, my main point being is I hope the inquire is not derailed, and strung out, regardless of the terms of reference, with the arguments mentioned there, and by their high paid fluting lawyers with those silly comments and statements. As in, we need the power, it was the least cost option, it was based on the best information or knowledge available at the time, we made a simple mistake, and rambling around it was a good project then and a good project for the future, and crap like that which was crap then and is still crap. And you see these guys coming out making those statement, and I expect you will hear more of that in the near future, just to try and soften up the public to their cause, and seek sympathy for themselves. I hope the learned judge will see right through that flimsy stuff and throw it out, and call a spade a spade. It was garbage then and is garbage now and into the future. If the judge allows that kind of trash to bog down his inquiry then the first session will be all for naught. But just watch them grasphing at those kind of straws, and their lawyers, flogging that to the hilt. We, the public know that is all hog wash, and am sure the learned judge will recognize it for what it is, a delaying, stalling tactic, and will see the forest from the trees. Cheers, average Joe.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Let's hope the Inquiry Counsel has the desire to beat through those garbage responses and really put them on the spot. If they come up short, it may leave only the MFCCC as the only party of standing who will try to root out the truth.

      If Inquiry Counsel is effective, there's a chance to crack the charade and persuade the Judge that Nalcor and Government designed and manufactured their own facts and they were far from impartial participants. If only MFCCC follows that line, then the argument is marginalized - the defense would argue there will always be a few naysayers.

      The Inquiry Counsel need to be ruthless and their research team need to be crackerjacks. Those qualities will determine the outcome more than anything else.

      Delete
  21. Operation Take Charge (or Hashtag Make Nfld Dark Again) : to turn off the main breaker at your house or business at noon on July 1, from noon to 4 pm
    I and Joe and Levy Payer on UG said lets do it last week . Joe and I figures maybe only a dozen would do it, so little impact. It needs to go viral.
    Yesterday VOCM carried it as Question of the day. by midnight it showed 3406 voted, 61 % says do it, 28 % say s no, 11 % Don't know. 61 % of 3406 is 2077 , so that is up from the 3 original UG ones.
    Now the Telegram carries the story and says this being spread on facebook , so maybe, I suggest, 10,000 will do it. This is still a small part of the population, and over 200,000 customers of Nfld power, but this is but a start. Should happen the first of every month and grow. Lets Take Charge
    Where is the long term UG readers on this?
    AG

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    Replies
    1. I would point out that the VOCM poll in themorning had 59 % say yes, 32%said no, but by last night , this was 61% yes and 28% no, so a positive trend for this in just one day. Soon we could have 80 % or more say yes, if they believe it sends a message that we have had enough of BS and reckless leaders , leading us into poverty. And we will not accept a whitewash of an Inquiry.
      AG

      Delete
    2. AG...yes, guess your numbers may be somewhat in the ball park, but would exceed my most optomestic expectations or dreams. I don't think it should be done too often as people quickly get tired of it, when they so no monenatery addition to their account. But need two things to really make it successful, people at home at the time of switch off, and people as mad as hell. Neither will apply tomorrow, but some will make sure they do it. As a couple of years down the road when rates are really high, most will be pissed with their bills, and will be home on a cold Sunday winters morning. Maybe there might be some way to connect it to chase the ace, as we had in Goulds-Moun Pearl last year where thousands sought to win the big bucks. A great insentive too. And who knows Winston might want to throw in his 10,000$ that no one wants to seem to take, lol, just as a styphen to create a greater insentive to participate and win the grand prize.Just a couple of ideas, how it might work, I have no idea. Cheers, average Joe.

      Delete
    3. You got it Joe, in this form: $10,000 will pay for a single heat minisplit, about nominal rating 20,000 Btu,(about 4500.00) and a 2 head , about 24.000 btu, about 5500.00, so a first and second prize. Now I don't sell or install, but I can pay for a good cause, for some needing to reduce their heat bill 50 percent or more. How to do it,as a prize for turning off their power, no clue. Late fro this round, but good for round 2.
      Winston

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  22. Political Parties are the problem;

    https://thetyee.ca/Opinion/2018/06/29/Abolish-Political-Parties/

    Maybe a Citizen's Coalition approach would serve NL better. Certainly a Ches Crosbie led PC Party does not inspire needed change to governance model.

    ReplyDelete
  23. Mr. Chess Crosbie this was June 2018: Light bill was $182.00. This is will be June after Muskrat Falls Increases: June 2020(?) light bill will be $364.00.

    I hope you understand this fully. I guess you can say I will be a cold human as a result of previous PC's "only human mistake".

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Suggest you line up for a free heatpump draw (when this ramps up) to cut your heating bill in half by joining in the turn off the power July 1

      Delete
    2. NL'ers heat their houses in June and July?

      Delete
    3. Heating Degree Days (HDD) determine whether building interiors require heating to provide for normal human comfort levels.

      There was a total of 65.0 HDD for St. John's during July 2017, therefore heat generation was required...

      http://climate.weather.gc.ca/climate_data/daily_data_e.html?hlyRange=2012-03-20%7C2018-06-30&dlyRange=2012-03-20%7C2018-06-30&mlyRange=%7C&StationID=50089&Prov=NL&urlExtension=_e.html&searchType=stnName&optLimit=yearRange&StartYear=1840&EndYear=2018&selRowPerPage=25&Line=7&searchMethod=contains&Month=7&Day=30&txtStationName=st.+john%27s&timeframe=2&Year=2017

      Delete
  24. If 10,000 (less than 5 % of customers) turn off their power on July 1, what is the impact on the grid?
    A typical house now in summer would be using about 1 kw, so it would cut 10 Mw of about 600 MW load, hardly a blip. But once the power if off for 4 hrs, all hot water tanks will cut in at the same time, a 3 kw load. Add to this the 1 kw of misc load. If a bit cool, heaters could cut in maybe 2 kw, so the load would be 4-6 kw. So if 5 kw, that is 50 kw now, 5 times what was turned off. If one turns on some more heat, the load per house could be 7-10 kw range, so 70 to 100 MW on a 600MW.
    Would this impact be seen on the power grid chart the following day?
    Most certainly, especially if power stays off and come on at the same time at 4 pm.
    I read that the left protect in the streets, the right from the keyboards. Maybe those that use the keyboard and goes to the mainbreaker are in the middle?
    AG

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Line 5 should read: that is now 50 MW on the grid, 5 times the 10 Mw turned off.
      Second last line should read protest not protect

      Delete
  25. Baseboard heaters are very low capital cost but high operating cost. For me to spend $10,000 on mini splits with a 10 year life to replace $1000 worth of baseboard heaters with limitless life would cost say $10,000 plus say $200 per year for maintenance. That is $12,000 over 10 years or 1200000 cents. There are 8760 hours in a year, so 1200000 divided by 87600 hours is 13.69 cents per hour to own and maintain the heat pumps. Therefore if the present rate for electricity doubles the purchase of my heat pumps will be break even at best. If the government chooses to cap rates at 18 cents per kwh and take the rest from another of my pockets rather than allow rates to double, then I will be cheaper off sticking with the baseboard heaters and using my $12,000 elsewhere, wouldn't I??

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I had a mini-split installed in 2012 and have now recovered its full cost of $4700 (and to date no maintenance required).

      With rates increasing, I can expect to save up towards $15,000 over the next 10 years (you can view my first year's results at www.vision2041.com). And this is not 'fake news'.

      Delete
    2. Thanks for those dollar figures Maurice, I now know roughly how much my cost of relocating away from this horrendously mismanaged rock will be offset by.

      And those amounts don't even include the superior services at lower rates of taxation I'll enjoy in another province, so considering the dire long-term prospects of this wretched province, it's all gravy.

      Delete
    3. I have followed your web site. Your unit is partial coverage, as many do for the main living areas. My monitoring suggests for a house fully covered by minisplits, savings of 15,000.00 over 15 years at present power rates, and 30,000.00 if power rates double. This with Cold Climate rated models as listed by Efficiency Nova Scotia, not the Fake News criteria used here by Nfld Poweer and Nfld Hydro Take Charge.....they do not promote models required for best practises for our climate, for either energy savings of grid peak demand reduction. When is Consumer Advocate Browne going to get up to speed on real saving for households, instead of just whether the equity of 37 or 45 % is the important issue for customer savings. They have bandied that around for years with their expert hired, all for peanuts in savings.
      That we are in general agreement on this subject, is it possible we are related somehow? My grandfather was John Adams, same name as USA second president. Perhaps we have similar British roots?
      Winston Adams

      Delete
  26. Anon @ 07;32 asks "Nflders heat their house in June and July?
    That is an important question, and also suggests that the question is from outside Nfld and the person may not have visited Nfld.
    The answer is as important as "virginia, yes there is a Santa Claus",
    But the answer depends on who you ask that question, do we need to heat our Houses in June or July.
    If you ask the "world class experts" at MUN, who are tied to Nfld Power and Nfld Hydro and Nalcor , the answer will be no. I have communicated with these chaps in writing on this subject, in regards to space heating and efficiency.
    Their response, initially was that we need heat for only 4 months of the year, Dec to March. When I cast doubt on that reply, they said 6 months of the year, which would be Nov to April. Now such a reply limits the expected saving from efficient heat pumps if one believes that, that heat is only needed up to April.
    The truth, Virginia, is space heat is needed here for 12 month of the year, but very little in July, Aug and Sept. So you can almost say heat is needed for 9 months. But May and June is typically very cold and needs a lot of heat. We had snow last week in central Nfld. Night frost is not unusual in early July, a worry for farmers.
    I have monitored space heat here year round and can confirm the heat requirement is need in what should be summer months.
    The shocking thing is that engineers at MUN, assist the power companies here to fudge the figures and produce fake news, all a part of the MF boondoggle , and the power companies failure to address Conservation and space heat efficiency, hence the scallywags of Take Charge.
    Winston Adams

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Heating Degree Days (HDD) determine whether building interiors require heating to provide for normal human comfort levels.

      There was a total of 65.0 HDD for St. John's during July 2017, therefore heat generation was required...

      http://climate.weather.gc.ca/climate_data/daily_data_e.html?hlyRange=2012-03-20%7C2018-06-30&dlyRange=2012-03-20%7C2018-06-30&mlyRange=%7C&StationID=50089&Prov=NL&urlExtension=_e.html&searchType=stnName&optLimit=yearRange&StartYear=1840&EndYear=2018&selRowPerPage=25&Line=7&searchMethod=contains&Month=7&Day=30&txtStationName=st.+john%27s&timeframe=2&Year=2017

      Delete
  27. If heat pumps are virtually maintenance free, how come I have to pay extra to get a 10 year warranty on heat pumps? Are the shills still here selling heat pumps?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You'll be better off using the thousand$ to install heat pumps towards offsetting the cost of relocating to another province. Like Heracles31 said, the way those culprits set up the Muskrat Madness scheme is that... the more the ratepayers conserve on their electricity use, the more the ratepayers are billed for that electricity.

      All things considered, you'll be much better off financially, as well as in terms of quality of life, by leaving NL within the next few years.

      Delete
    2. The problem with Heracles and your illogical analysis is that there exists a economic law of elasticity, even for electricity, just go ask David Vardy.
      So as rates go up, electricity use goes down(same thing happens with beef, and people use more chicken or pork) So as MF must be absorbed somehow it will be by other means, one of which is by higher taxation, by which the richer pay more, or Uncle Ottawa helps out etc. But the statement that the more we conserve , the higher the power rates does not necessarily hold and an excuse not to conserve or have efficiency programs like Nova Scotia. I give 100 to 1 odds that going forward Nflders will move to efficiency and will conserve.That is much better odds than Chase the Ace.
      Winston

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    3. Exactly right Winston. Power rates WILL crest at about 17cents/kWh. It has to for at least a few years. Left holding the bag are a few of us not bad off. I admit I'm in that camp of not bad off, but im in that camp, not by accident, it's because i get up every morning as well as my wife to be in that camp. Nobody gave us nothing, we both graduated highschool with zero in the bank. Now after doing okay in the private sector of this place, we'll be called upon to bail out the mistakes of govNL. News for you govNL, we're taking our privately funded pensions and going west with it. Anyone free to go now i say "MOVE NOW". Anyone reading this from afar "STAY WHERE YOU'RE AT".

      Delete
    4. Assuming MF actually produces power close enough to promises (big if here), rates should be set optimaly to ensure maximum overall revenues (taking into account demand elasticity, and a possible HP frenzy).

      That optimal rate should also be low enought to ensure that most of the available hydro is used up (instead of excess hydro capacity going to waste - MF having basically no reservoir).


      Delete
    5. MF can be used to supply the Labrador load and thereby free up power from upper CF, up to the 300MW recall for wheeling through Quebec, subject to the 2.362 terawatt hours provided in the CF power contract of course. In addition, while the island reservoirs are much smaller than the CF reservoir, then so is Muskrat approximately 10% of the power capacity of CF. The island reservoirs can be used to store and dispatch power to facilitate maximum export sales in Nova Scotia and potentially beyond.

      Delete
    6. I should have also mentioned that the potential is there to raise reservoir levels incrementally to increase storage volume. The largest volume of live storage is at the top of the reservoir. Such a project would of course cost money.

      Delete
    7. Notwithstanding the indisputable logic and wisdom of Heracles31, the self-serving denialists who rely on speculation and conjecture to convince themselves their heat pumps will prepare them for the impending Muskrat Catastrophe and its consequent horrific long-term fiscal damage to the province... reminds of of someone with a sump-pump in his basement convincing himself he's prepared for a tsunami.

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    8. Never said heatpumps will save us from the boondoggle Anon@11;27, just that people will learn they save over 50 % on space ehating and will concert and conserve energy. My offer of 100:1 odds that this will ramp up. Be the first to take a bet, and reveal your identity , and see who is speculating . Nova Scotia installed over 100,000, 20,000 in the year 2011 alone. We will not be too far behind, except there they gave incentives. They are stun , right? We are smart not to use them?
      Winston Adams

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    9. should read " save over 50 % on space heating energy and will convert and conserve energy

      Delete
    10. Now , I did say in 2012, prior to MF sanction, published in the Telegram, and presented tot he PUB, that heatpumps could have save us, a part of the alternative, not evaluated . So, not hindsight.
      Winston

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    11. NLers have just 2 choices with respect to Muskrat Falls, stay and pay or leave. If you choose to stay and you can afford heat pumps also then good for you, you are reasonably well off financially.

      Delete
    12. Let me explain the way things work elsewhere: say rates in Nfld is 10 cents, but 1/2 cent is added , so 10.5 cents. This creates a 50 million a year fund that is used to pay part of the cost of heatpumps, insulation etc. So your rate went up a little , but your heat bill drops 50 percent or more. Simple and effective, and done for decades elsewhere. Of course with this they sell less electricity, MF was not needed, and Fortis, Nfld Power makes a bit less in profits. So why was it not done?
      WA

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    13. What crazy arithmetic are you using that results in $50M per year from 1/2 cent? Where are you getting these figures from?

      You're living in a dream-world, buddy. Get real...

      Delete
    14. At $5K per installation, $50M will pay for about 10K heat pump installations.

      There's about 220K households in NL. So that less than 5% of households in NL will receive a heat pump from the $50M subsidy.

      So how in the name of christ will this help the other 95%/ 209K households?

      Bloody-well daft notions being promoted on this blog. Some on here like Heracles31 try to talk sense, obviously to no avail.

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    15. When chatting, easy to make a error, and good to see you pay attention. 1 cent is 50 million, 0.5 cent is about 25 million. I believe my figures from 2012 stated 0.8 cents for about 40 million.
      And NS paid 1/3 , or about 1500.00 toward 4500.00 unit. So that is abut 26 ,000 units per year, 208,000 in 8 years. Why would you expect contractors able to install 220,000 in 1 year, when NS only did 20,000 in a year. Maybe Christ could do it faster, but the boondoggle will take 10 years, and if we had started in 2012, we have a lot of units in by now. Go read my 2012 piece, think there are about 170,000 single detached houses but eventually most will convert.
      What is daft notion is to have the program pay the full cost, when many can afford it on their own, and 1/3 to 1/2 most all will go for it. 100 to 1 odds if you want to bet , that you will see many convert. But you hide as anon to attack the messenger, you are so brave.
      Our present Conservation plan operated at about 5 million a year, 1/3 skimmed off my Nfld Power, 1/3 useful measures, 1/3 junk. We have the second worst in all of canada, and people like you keep us there.
      WA

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    16. Winston, if Nalcor has plenty of power for everyone (for the Emera block, the rock and Labrador), what's the point of having a program to set aside $50M for HP? Nalcor will just end up with more unsold power - which currently has close to zero value on the export market.

      All the savings consumers will obtain via HP will basically translate into a similar loss for Nalcor...

      Delete
    17. Winston, what a bunch of yackiest, lackies, crackles, grippers, and winners you have snapping at your heels, when you make an innocent simple mistake in arithmetic. Or maybe it's just one person, who knows???? And as you point out why not politly advise you of your error, and you will apologize and correctly amend it. And again as you point out their logic or common scense is so flawed, like installing a couple of hundred thousand heat pumps in a single year, at a cost of 5,000$ each for 50,000, 000$ is not worthy of a rebuttal from you.. What kind of an idiot do they take you for.?????? I politely asked to give a basic summary about the court decision in the stealing of power by cflco, not to me personally, but to all blog readers, and as you can see All we got was a bunch of websites, paragraphs numbers, and page numbers. Nothing concrete, seemed to be allegations, nundo, and court jargon. The layperson, needs to know, the amount of power stolen, it's value, when it was stolen, who bought it, and what were the profits and by whom. It reminds me of uncle nobbie, who took his buddy to court for stealing his ice fishing holes. Think the judge had a lot of fun with that one, because by the time they got around to defining where the holes where, proof of who cut the holes, and when they were used and by whom, the ice had all melted. So where were the holes now, ask average Joe.

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    18. Joe, I notice that any talk of efficiency and conservation makes their piss hot(a term my mother would use).
      Now I am not the sharpest these days, on mental arithmetic on the fly, and can easily make an error. As reported a few months ago, I have 4 close relatives come down with cancer. My wife had bowel surgery in March, and 60 percent of her liver removed 4 weeks ago, but now we walk the lane here half a mile twice a day, and await a scan and more chemo. My grandson, age 13, had aggressive cancer, emergency surgery to remove a tumor on his spine, was suppose to be cancer free 2 weeks ago , but discover they use the wrong protocol, so back for more aggressive chemo, in intensive care for a few days, now home again, doing reasonably well and hopefully now cancer free. Other 2 relatives, a brother and sister, on going treatment. So enough to cause an error in arithmetic. General success on cancer, my wife had 15 percent chance of a cure, now likely 90 % or better. And these crackies snapping at my heels as you say. I suggest they look at my arithmetic from 2012, when a robust energy efficiency program made more sense than today.
      Ex -military says what's the point in a 50 million program today? I suggested such a program in 2012. Now as Ex Military knows, we get into diminishing returns on higher power rates, which will drive efficiency(hps, insulation, better windows, wood and pellet stoves etc) and lower power consumption. A modest program makes more sense, to help those on income support, and some assistance for the middle class. This causes a transfer for MF loss to the taxpayer instead of the ratepayer, a fairer system, and hopefully uncle Ottawa will be held accountable. And can we claw back the 6 million paid to Ed Martin?
      It defies logic, I suggest, to think rates can go to 17 or 23 cents and think people will use the same volume of electricity simply to bail out the boondoggle scheme put on the backs of the ratepayers. Notice the Make Nfld Dark Again movement this July 1, thousands turned off their main power breaker. It is symbolic of what lies ahead as to power consumption reduction.
      Perhaps those crackies know human nature better than I do, and expect them to say Yes sir, I will pay 17 cents or 23 cents, and not cut back. I will do it for the sake of Ed Martin, or for the Fortis shareholder.
      No, I do not expect that. I expect them to be Fighting Nflders, to defy the slimy politicians and business elites who handed us this mess. I expect them to not want to leave Nfld because these slimebags made it to expensive to live here. It is one thing to be shit on. Not too many want it patted in, as does Ed Martin, Danny Williams, Dwight Ball,and sad to say, Stan Marshall. People are fed up with the lies and BS.
      So Joe, let them try and make a big issue of my arithmetic error. Very very sorry if some think it is up there with the errors and mistakes and false assumptions of Nalcor. It it all relative.
      Winston Adams

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    19. Well said Winston ...and you have my empathy, and sympathy, know you are having a tough time. And your contribution to this blog is appreciated by most blog readers, for sure. Cheers, average Joe.

      Delete
    20. Anon 13:28 is exactly right when it comes to the MRF fiasco... stay and pay or leave.

      A few heat pumps installed by those with the disposable income to pay for them won't shield the general populace from the long-term collateral damage the MRF fiasco will do to the fiscal stability and overall quality of life in this tormented province.

      The culprits responsible for that vile scheme should be locked up.

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    21. I'm joining AJ to give you my empathy and sympathy Winston. And please keep posting, it's always with great interest I read your comments. (And I applaud your diplomatic/caring tone).

      ---------------------------------------

      Average Joe: indeed you politely asked for a basic summary about the court decision (and of power stolen, its value, when it was stolen, who bought it, and what were the profits and by whom). At that time, I could not answer all those questions offhand in a timely manner.

      Then Heracles came out specifying exact paragraph corresponding to a bunch of issues discussed earlier. Somehow, I figured it answered your quest of info, but I guess I was wrong... ;-)

      Now, about that Nalcor power theft, you were kidding when you said it was "Nothing concrete, seemed to be allegations, nundo...", right ?

      Respectfully,

      Eric

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    22. Thanks Eric, for your response. As you might note my initial response of a couple of days ago was, I did not know enough about stealing hydro power or hydro poles to comment or know if it were possible, and nothing much scense has changed. My words that you quoted I think were mainly directed to Hercules, in a general way, since he did not give any detail that I had asked for, so I in jest asked if it was allegations rather than proven concrete facts. But of course I am in no way questioning any court findings, or dialogue, as I am in no position to do so. I respect the law of the land. Cheers, thanks again. Average Joe.

      Delete
    23. Ex-Military, Eric, thanks for your good wishes. Fighting cancer is much like fighting war, and as you being ex military, and I with a little military experience, it takes a Fighting Nflder attitude, yet hope to avoid a Beaumont Hamel type experience. On one occasion, I said to my wife, you have won a battle but not the war yet. She tuned up:Over Here, over there......which is part of a popular WW1 American war song!
      Nutrition, exercise, and stress reduction are weapons besides chemo. The first 3 are missing form our cancer treatment, but I endorse them, and seems so far beneficial. So we keep up the good fight. At 5 am , before going off to get 60 percent of her liver removed, my wife was on the threadmill for 15 minutes, dong 2.5 MPH. Before being wheeled into surgery,the nurse told her that patients usually need some medication for anxiety, but she did not need it. She has passed through several very rough times,and a health care system that needs much improvement, but a cure seems yet possible and probable,so we take the good, including good wishes.
      Sometimes, on this blog, as to MFs, I feel I am not so diplomatic, such when I use the word slimeball, and fall short of being civil. But is there a better word to describe those who have forced the boondoggle on us, and make no apologies. Now we spend 33 million on lawyers to mostly defend the scallywags, pretending they acted in good faith on the best available assumptions. Enough to make you puke. So, my language, when I go overboard, I am in sympathy with the common Joe, stuck with this financial mess, and too many caring not a damm.
      I too appreciate hearing form fellow Canadians of good will, especially from Quebec,
      Winston

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  28. Operation Take Charge: I'm in ....turning off my main breaker at noon.
    Heat actually on today, chilly outside, and I just popped up the heat a little more to carry me through to 4 pm. I am on a well, so need to watch my water, so the tank holds water at the tap , and not lost via the toilet flush.
    Winston Adams

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  29. Just wanted to say I turned of my breaker at the stroke of noon....meant to turn it back on at the stroke of 4pm. But forgot so turned it back at 4:11. So maybe some one may tell us if there was any effect or noticeable on the grid tomorrow. Just saying...says as enrage joe...

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  30. Well, I endured 4 hrs without power. My house temperature dropped about 2F, and starting to get a bit chilly. My attic read 66F at noon and was 61 at 4 pm, on this July 1, and maybe 50F outdoors, so yes heated in July.
    Some years ago, I once recorded 119F in my attic on a late May calm day.It has taken about 40 minutes to reheat the house, and kicked on about 10 or 12 kws, my main house not having heatpumps yet.
    As Robert Holmes says above : Remember Beaumont Hamel! Fitting I think, that their sacrifice should help embolden us; to consider where our leaders have and may take us, and to what cost. Doubt if many switched off, and it was but a small inconvenience, not like running into machine gun fire on July 1, 1916.
    I will check later this week to see if there was a blip on the grid. I don't think the scallywags are on the run yet. And they lose no revenue by this.
    Winston Adams

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  31. Someone asked : Nfld needs heat in June or July?
    Torbay Airport shows today July 1 at 43F at noon, 55F at 7PM
    Here at Logy Bay,near St John's, I am presenting heating about 2000 sq ft,and about 2300 watts of electric baseboard heat on.
    Now at 55 outdoors, minisplits operating at min capacity has a coefficient of performance of about 5, so 80 percent power reduction, so I could heat this with 460 watts.
    The problem with MUN enginers saying our heating season ends in April, it misses a lot of our heat use, and at a time when minisplits are at their optimum performance. In winter a COP of about 2.5(60 percent saving), now a cop of 5 (80 % saving).
    Estimates generally is that space heat is required when outside temperatures drop below 65F, and assumes when warmer than that, then misc appliaances, Tv, body heat etc is sufficent and no space heater required. This is generally true for standard older moderate construction of houses. With many older houses, heat may be required with outdoor temp is even 68F instead of 65. R2000 house may not need space heat until the temp goes below 50-55 F. A passive design house would not need space heat until colder temp. David Goodyear of Flatrock reports a balance time of mid May for his new passive design. May month shows a mean temp of 8C , so about 47 F. So passive design houses would not need heat until at 20F colder than for most house. Since about 80% of all houses are older stock, they need heat even when at 68F outdoors. And, yes Virginia, we are in July and it is colder than 68F, and was just 43 Fat noon.
    Conclusion: MUN engineers used by Nalcor, Nfld Hydro and Nfld Power are full of s--t, to say our heating season ends in April. They use these guys to mislead the public, and mislead the PUB, mislead the Consumer Advocate, to discourage Conservation and customer energy efficiency. Simple as that. Perhaps they will also mislead Judge Leblanc. Wade Locke is not the only guy misleading the province from MUN. It is also happening at the Engineering Dept.
    Winston Adams

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  32. For the anon@ 22;31, as to my error in arithmetic, and also to engineers Heracles , Ex Military, PENG2 and Robert Holmes, I direct you to my analysis in 2012 on Energy Efficiency
    This can be found posted on Vision 2041 blog, under the EFFICIENCY heading, scroll down to see PART 1, 2 and 3, which were published in the Telegram pre-Muskrat sanction in 2012.
    Part 2 lists 9 benefits, energy savings is just one, so Heracles and Ex Military may find that of interest. Part 3 shows the arithmetic: a o.9 cent surcharge gives 52 million a year fund, allows a 40% rebate, and as to HPs would allow rebates to 13,000 residential customers per year. I welcome comments on arithmetic errors that anyone might find.
    Winston Adams

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    Replies
    1. Hi Winston,

      I will try to explain it to you again....

      Your logical about efficiency is right but only at individual level and when omitting the Federal Loan Garanty's terms.

      Yes, the principles of economic says that there is only a maximum rate you can charge for power. Above that, the revenue will go down instead of up.

      The thing is, that limitation is NOT part of the FLG. The FLG requires to charge as much as needed to pay back the debt. The legal contracted terms of the FLG must be respected despite they go against economical principle.

      Newfoundland agreed to that. Newfoundland agreed to something that goes 100% against all logic and economical principles. That is why I wrote many thime that once one is so desparate to harm himself, you are left with two choices : you take him his freedom or you let him harm himself until he has enough of it. We did not took you your freedom so far but that may very well happen now that Newfoundland managed to pushed itself to bankruptcy.

      Newfoundland must collect more money than what is available in its population. It does not matter if the money is claimed by power rate, taxes or anything else.

      Not to increase rates high enough to collect that money will be a breach of the FLG. Because Newfoundland will be in default, the Federal may then be in a position to take Newfoundland's its autonomy. Only after that may the power rate by capped at 17 cents or 20 or 22 or whatever will be fixed by the Federal.

      That is why so many people in Newfoundland see the situation as Stay-N-Pay or Leave-N-Live and unfortunately, they are basically right. Only once the bailout is defined and in place another options may become available. Until such a bailout happens, these 2 options are the only ones people have. Efficiency is not one of these options.

      Delete
    2. Efficiency is not only logical at the individual level. To bring about mitigation of rates Ball has ordered Nalcor to come up with some 200 million a year, which may come from oil revenue, or a little from stealing power from HQ even. Ball can cap rates at 14, 17 cents or whatever and cut other government services, increase personal and corp tax etc. to help prevent a breach of the FLG. You say that is impossible to achieve maybe , maybe not. You even propose a sale of CF to avoid that, so there are options, though not good ones.
      Now as to Efficiency saving the day, no. But that does not mean efficiency is counterproductive or inevitable.
      The last part of Part 3,from 2012, if you read it says: "Even without an efficiency rebate program, customer conversions to these efficient systems has compelling economics and presents a serious risk to the future load growth forecast. By assuming efficiency has reached a saturation point, Nalcor and Manitoba Hydro Int's error is a serious risk in forecasting island power needs , and may lead to a serious financial burden for our province". You may know that the long term growth was about 0.8 %per year, and now gone negative. It was not hard to achieve negative growth, via efficiency.
      Take Danny Williams Galway project, for some 5000 houses. Likely a 50 MW substations required and likely part of the present Nfld Power rate application.This 50 MW represents about 10 percent of the MF capacity. Now with efficient space heating by HPs this 50MW could be 35 MW. This reduction could save 20 % on the cost of the transmission and substation for Galway, which helps lower Nfld Power costs. So, at present and in the future, do we ignore such efficiency on capital costs of our infrastructure, because of MFs? And besides, an efficient Galway, would free up energy to feed another 2000 houses. So we ignore that as well?
      Like asking Bombardier to hold off on efficient design for their airplanes, or not to have efficiency in manufacturing, because HQ has surplus electricity to sell. If you want to be world class, efficiency is a must. There are many reasons for efficiency, and I mention just a couple. But not a cure all for the boondoggle.
      Winston

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    3. Ok... Lets try in another way...

      Efficiency is frequently, and in this specific case is, similar to an investment : You pay more money as of now in order to pay less tomorrow.

      The problem here is that as of now, you already don't have enough to pay for what you have to pay. So to pay more is not an option.

      Second part of the problem is that it is too late to reduce the amount you will have to pay tomorrow.

      By combining these two, that's why it is way too late for efficiency.

      Before being efficient, one needs to be functional. As of now, Newfoundland is not functional and its capability are going down quickly.

      That's another way to explain why it is too late for efficiency.

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    4. Heracles, it appears you get the meaning of "Sunk Cost" and "stranded asset"

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunk_cost

      Ontario Hydro got a taste of it from its research projects in nuclear plants at Pickering and Darlington

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    5. Heracles, you make silly arguments. True, efficiency is an investment, and robust efficiency that could have avoided MFs is too late.
      According to Vardy we are short about 500 million a year to cover MFs, and you cannot get blood from a turnip, those being the ones on income support. But chop 100 million from MUN, 200 million from health care( offset with efficiency improvements in its overall operation), and now a shortfall of 500M is just 200M. Ed Martin donates his 5 million back as as repentance, and now 195M short. Danny Williams gets true religion, and donates a 100 m legacy boondoggle fund, to be invested in Fortis, so a return of 4 % divident and 6 % yearly capital gain, so a 10 million yearly amount for 57 years, whereupon his 50 million is returned to him. Stan Marshall who is richer than Danny , by at least 50 million,(he was # 62 on the top 100 CEO pay scale at about 5 million a year, before retirement) but does not boast about it, also sees the LIGHT, so to speak, and outdoes Danny, with a similar but larger endowment to give a yearly 15 million to the boondoggle fund. So now we drop another 25 million to 170 million shortfall, by the generosity of these two fine citizens.
      So , see how easy it is Heracles to stay solvent. This just a few ideas.
      Poor me, relatively speaking, I will agree to pay 2 cents more
      than the going rate per kwh used, if Nfld Power donates it to their Efficiency program for actual good measures,to help the common Joe, and not for free lunches for the Take Charge scallywags. Others might join me on that, who knows.
      Winston

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    6. WA:
      I have rarely seen a flaw in your reasoning, and have questioned when I have seen it. I did the quick calc-at 1250Mw mean annual load, the savings would have about $50M for 1/2cent per kWhr cost increase.

      I have looked at your 2012 document before-as you saw, efficiency is an investment towards avoiding mistakenly over using resources which leads to MFs.

      PENG2

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    7. When one is so desperate to harm himself, you are faced with two choices : take him his freedom or let him harm himself until he has enough of it.

      It looks like you did not had enough of it yet. Lucky for you, you will not need to wait long before you get a lot more of it;

      Your government is already burried under the heaviest debt per capita in the country.
      Your government systemic budget deficit is already gigantic.
      Your demography is already going the wrong way with hundreds of active people leaving every months, replaced by a few elders.

      You already have surplus in summer time that you are unable to sell.
      Once MF starts producing power, you will end up with even more unsold power.
      All of that trying to compete against HQ who is financially sound, has a lot of reliable power and transmission lines, less transport fees and more to its benefits.

      So go ahead : pay even more money for efficiency.
      Once achieved, end up with even less revenue from MF
      Let that produces even more unsold power
      Make the decision to stay as costly as the decision to leave, because it requires your so deer heat pump, re-insultating and more to stay trapped in a bankrupted administration instead of moving to a place that can sustain itself.

      Have fun in your highly power efficient environment while everything else aroung fall apart,

      Delete
    8. And by the way WInston, this is the Frog and the Ox :
      Newfoundland is the Frog, looking at Qc - HQ who's the Ox.
      Newfoundland's envy pushed it to puff itself trying to do as much as HQ.
      Others told you to stop but there was nothing to do.
      You kept puffing yourself and either you will burst any time now, or already did.

      Stop trying to compete against HQ. The entire idea of MF was to do that, to compete against HQ and provide power to Atlantic / USA.

      Your efficiency program is going the same way : to provide Nalcor with more power to sell when it is already basically impossible to sell at a profit as of now, even more when going against the world leader and giant that HQ is.

      Delete
    9. Seems to me that HQ's surplus of power could end in 2041??

      Delete
    10. I was reading Heracles (a couple months ago) saying that HQ has built sufficient capacity to replace CF past 2041 (as a contingency plan). I guess the trust level is pretty low...

      Delete
    11. In 2041, HQ's unsold surplus will turn into CFLCo's unsold surplus. HQ will do with its own resources, will not buy anymore from CFLCo and just like HQ was unable to sell that surplus, CFLCo will be unable to sell it too.

      Delete
    12. Well this is the point, if HQ does not require CF power and energy beyond 2041, then CF will have another proven route to market to compete if necessary with HQ. If the commodity is not marketable then so be it, park it, mothball it or dismantle it.
      It is well known now by Canadians that sadly we do not have free trade within Canada, yet we rail against the present US administration for playing hardball on free trade. We have provinces holding other provinces to ransom at the provincial borders over transmission lines and pipelines.
      Perhaps this guy Trump will help teach Canadians a better way to prosper with a national free trade policy and access to trade with other countries overseas.

      Delete
    13. Anon @ 20;28, what you say is a red herring. We can transmit through Quebec for wheeling fees, and we do that. For MFs power an extra tranmission line is needed through Quebec, and is high cost, as is our DC line.
      Our proven route is not yet proven reliable, and to ship CF this way through Nfld, add 8 more lines at 5 billion each and see how economic it is.
      WA

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  33. Joe, it appears that the Operation Take Charge (Make NL Dark Again) effect can be seen on the Nfld Hydro grid chart, posted at the PUB. There is a definite dip of maybe 20 MW at noon, that seems to last an hour and recovers about 1 pm, suggesting that not all kept the power off for 4 hrs. 4 hrs is a bit long for some, and a chilly day as well.
    Now, as you know , Nflders like their cooked Sunday dinner, so I went back 5 prior weeks on a Sunday to see if July 1 was different from the prior Sundays, as to the general pattern. And it was different. The others DO NOT show the dip that lasted an hour. I say a fingerprint signal that showed up on the grid, thought not that many took part, maybe 1000, or a few thousand. With more people and good coordination, yes, it is possible to Make Nfld Dark, and an important symbolic line in the sand has been drawn, enough is enough!
    So Joe, you and I did it,(Levey Payer may not have helped as he said he would), we showed the way, and others more savy than us with social media, Facebook, Twitter whatever, took over, common Joe people,all.
    Now even VOCM and Pat Daley hypes it, and the Telegram , a little. A
    march planned on Confederation Bldg , I hear, and on Nfld Power Building. The scallywags can hide no longer. VIVE NL, if my poor French is correct.
    AG

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    1. You are on top of things AG, way to go. Yes, the protest was greater than expected for sure.. .. And hopefully down the road it will gain momentum, and have many more protesters, in a year or so. But as a side note, do you know what the hell Hercules is beating his gums about in the past six months or so. Like a broken record, the novelity of his bs has now worn off, and about time he gave it up. Will write more about this later, when I get a minute. Cheers, average Joe.

      Delete
  34. Here in he Twillingate area,Heat pumps are really catching on,and from what I hear,they are working out just fine,Plenty of heat even in the dead of winter!

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    Replies
    1. Hey Anon,

      Indeed, heat pumps have a lot to offer, even more when compared to baseboard eating. The question here with Winston is not about if heat pump is a good product or not. The question is can a systemic use of heat pump be of any good to Newfoundland.

      That is where he still says Yes and I tell him that No, it won't help.

      MF must be paid for. Too late to avoid that. To pay for efficiency would be to pay even more than what has been already paid for MF.

      MF is designed to produce something of low (next to no) value, that is hydro-electricity in an over-supplyed market. The purpose of efficiency is to ensure that value will drop even more by ensuring even more unsold power will be available on the market.

      It makes no sense to pay even more money to ensure the product of MF will be of even lower value. That is what a massive pro-efficiency program would do.

      Nice to talk with you,

      Delete
    2. Heracles, I do not now advocate for a massive pro-efficiency program, but a reasonable one.The robust one should have been to help avoid MFs. Manitoba Hydro likewise has overbuild on hydro and costs to rise, and there was debate there at the highest levels, pro and con having Efficiency Manitoba, and they did go with a modest program, which your flawed logic would oppose.
      As to Twillingate, yes , they work, and I would say 90 percent of winter, even on the Labrador coast , who suffer on expensive diesel power, would be very economic with hps, air source.
      Now Heracles, I have said , I think, I agree with 60 % of your opinions, which is not that high. It ranks with Bruno's opinions (hope he is still well, and reading UG), I do miss him.
      But your Frog and Ox story, while a good one, grows tiresome. We all know HQ is an ox, and has much expertise. But better I say it than you. Better I say Nalcor is not world class on hydro development. With your desire expressed to own fully CFs , takes away from the good will expressed by most commentators from Quebec. We can do with a helping hand, despite past problems and anti-Quebec feeling you suggest.Aspire as to our better angels, as they say.
      You say my Efficiency ideas is another Frog program, that we cannot afford.
      Most in this province are middle class, that typically travel to the USA, or Canada twice a year on holidays or visitations, and spend more in one year in travel than the cost of a HP system. All of these can easily afford , without incentives, to go energy efficient for space heating. Those on income support need assistance to do that.
      To pull up stakes and leave Nfld for too costly space heat is NOT going to happen on a large scale. Our roots are too deep.
      With a slow economy, some will leave for work, this has happened repeatedly for 150 years, first to Boston, then Toronto, then Fort McMurray, Alberta, some to the far North.
      Talk is one thing, action another.
      UG calls for good governance. I expect you have better governance in Quebec, and we could learn form you. Can we avoid bankruptcy as to MFs? Ask Dave Vardy. There is likely a way.
      But to stop efficiency, especially for space heating, is like to try and stop the wind from blowing. But it should be like the Goldilocks and the Three Bears, rather than the Ox and Frog story. It must be "just right". Not too much, and not too little. But it should be effective , and not be fake measures, like Take Charge mostly offers. People get to learn what is true and real and what is fake.
      As to Heracles, I am like Joe, still trying to make sense whether you are friend or foe. A friend would help us keep 2/3 of CFs. But we should not steal power form HQ 1/3 rights, nor do other nasty actions.
      Winston

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    3. Winston,

      You are comparing things that have nothing in common... What happened in Manitoba has no relation with what is happening in Newfoundland.

      Was Manitoba close to bankruptcy when they talked about their efficiency program ?
      Was Manitoba tied to a FLG that required them to adjust the rate to whatever is required to cover their cost ?
      Was Manitoba betting on extra energy to sell it to an over-saturated market ?

      No, No and No. These are the reason why their situation had nothing in common with yours and why what was right for them is not the same for you.

      For one last time, my logic is not against efficiency in general. The logic is that it is too late for Newfoundland to seek benefits in efficiency. You are right after what David Vardy described in his post about paying twice for Muskrat Falls.

      Yourself is desperate to pay twice for Muskrat Falls, so go for it and pay twice. It is impossible to help the one who does not want to be helped. So keep putting money you don't have to a program that will reduce your income and the value of your asset. You are sovereign, so do whatever you want.

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    4. In all cases, I am done.

      Design whatever program you want.

      Just be sure that it will cost extra money to the governement, beyond the costs that you already incurred.

      But remember that to be highly efficient, you have to shoot yourself in both feet at once and not only in one. So be sure that program will also cut down government's revenue and not just increased expenses.

      When your program is ready, start your political campaign about it. Peckford got his pickle palace, William got his Muskrat Madness, so no reason why people in Newfoundland would not vote for Adam's Heat Pump Efficient Endebtment Program.

      For the others, Stay-N-Pay or Leave-N-Live but as of now, until a bailout is defined, there is no such thing as Stay-N-Live.

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    5. No need to get vexed Heracles. We just agree to disagree. Was not Manitoba's plans to sell hydro into the USA market? And Manitoba Consultants advisers for Nalcor saying MFs was a good project? Let her go for the gullies, full steam ahead.
      Adams' Efficiency NL sounds better,or just Efficiency NL, as Nfld Power points out that 30 % of our residential energy waste is from little or no basement insulation. ICF Consultants rates minisplits as #1, but insulation #2, so Efficiency NL would not be a one trick pony. David Goodyears Passive House in Flatrock uses triple glaze windows, a big energy saver. I am not entangled with HPs as a single measure. Nfld has one of the windiest climates in the world, and so much heat loss in winter from air leakage. It contributed to Dark NL, such that their Nostradamus forecasting peak load was flawed. Air sealing is very cost effective.
      Passive is highly efficient. Our housing stock is very inefficient, so making them moderate efficient is good, even for health benefits: reduces health costs, proven in Ireland studies on efficiency, Heracles.
      Perhaps it is time you admit you were wrong to accuse me of selling and installing minisplit heatpumps, that I financially benefit from that? It goes to your integrity, or lack thereof, to falsely accuse, and not admit an error. We all err at times.
      Winston

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    6. Thank God your are done, and good riddance Hercules. We locked horns when you first arrived here on this blog, and I called you a vulture then, not a friend, and you are still a vulture, trying your damness to sow discord among the people of this province. And of course you failed miserably as I told you then. 95 per cent on this blog ignored you. Only a few like myself and Winston engaged you in your BS. You seemed friendly enough after , so we be friended you in return, to see if you had anything to offer, and to see what your point of view might be. But you had one and only one objective in mind, and you never strayed far from that, to sow discord in this province, get people to leave, and get your grimy hands on a part of this province, namely Labrador, as yours. It was so obvious, and you said that a few times, but who do you think the people of this province are, we were't born yesterday. We have heard from your type before, but usually not so blatant. So stay the hell out of our affairs, we don't need friends like your type. But, as always I still send my best wishes to my good friends in Quebec, and take heart in knowing all people are not the same or think the same, no matter where they come from. God bless to all. Joe blow, average goe, AJ.

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    7. Ah, well, Heracles did keep us abreast of happening at the Supreme Court, and of Nalcor's less than honourable moves, but we ourselves and UG and the naysayers exposed much wrong with Nalcor. And Heracles first solution proposed was that our share , 2/3 of CF was valued at the same as the MF debt, so HQ would take the debt off our hands for our 2/3 of CFs. I bet Dave Vardy and others could propose something better.
      Pre confederation, Peter Cashin warned to beware of the Canadian wolf. Yesterday I joked to my wife, and my 10 year old granddaughter that I was a true Nflders, born before 1949, but that she, my wife, was just a Canadian, born in 1950, so she was a Canadian wolf, and we laughed, and my grand daughter was puzzled by it. Of course, I think Confederation was good, and wolfs not so bad. Then there was the movie, the Wolf of Wall Street. So maybe Heracles is one such wolf. Maybe he can be tamed, and be more constructive for his suggestions of solving our problems. Or maybe he is finished with UG.
      I would like to hear more from Bernard, who I think, thinks similar to Dave Vardy, as to economics and the big picture. His opinions are of value.
      Winston

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    8. Heracles did give us some insight as to the Supreme Court back channelling its CFL decision to political manoeuvring, but to date no confirming what deals are being struct to mitigate the heavy cost to ratepayers. I suggest this is a growing concern. A letter, (Lane), in the Telegram quite rightly demands the public needs to know the deal. Why again are we so complacent that the MPs and the MLAs know what is "best" for us all? This is a National as well as a Provincial issue. I remember the wolf metaphor well, Winston. Like Farley Mowat, I found in real life that the "wolf had no teeth". It's the inside traders, that we must be wary of.

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    10. Efficiency again...

      Winston, is it fair to assume that post MF, Nalcor will have sufficient overall "hydro" (not thermal) to provide for both the Emera block, and the base load for the whole province?

      If so, is it fair to assume that (by example with this yearly $52M efficiency program) any "savings" will basically translate into a similar loss to Nalcor? (As Nalcor will just end up with more unsold hydro - which currently has close to zero value on the export market, delivered at the US border).

      Would you mind correcting me on those specific assumptions above?

      Thanks

      Eric

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    11. Hi Eric
      our winter peak is about 1750, of which about 1150 is island hydro. MF can deliver on avg about 500 MW, so this gives 1650 MW. As our load is reducing, 1650 may handle our winter peak.
      Now Heracles says MFs will produce only 17% of rated 824, so 140MW. If so, then 1150 island plus 140 MF gives only 1290 MW,
      This is 460 MW short (for 1750peak), and 360 mW short if 1650 peak.
      So we have insufficient hydro even for the island. NS expects 160MW + 160 mw extra if available, and the ML can handle 500MW to NS.
      Now originally it was expected that MF could deliver full capacity of 824 for a couple of cold days to handle our peak. 824 leaving MF equals about 758MW allowing for transmission losses. Our island 1150 + 758 = 1908 MW, which would have met our peak of 1750 plus some load growth.
      Now it seems that the headpond at MF must be kept steady and perhaps no more than 550 produced at any time.
      The Labrador indeed can get some CF power, and the line itself is rated 900 MW, so about 828 MW possible. But how much is available from CFs? Maybe 100MW and purchase 200 MW from HQ?
      PENG2 thinks MF may be built and not operate as to the North Spur stability issue , and I think the same.
      So, it seems very questionable if we can even meet our island winter peak?
      Then there is the reliability of transmission, far from reliable, and if so, then lots of backup still needed from Holyrood thermal.
      These figures are just from recollection,and I would ask PENG2 to comment, as he is very good at numbers and is no fan of the Anglo Saxon route.
      Generally it seems we are in a bind trying to meet contracted power to NS, and put our own needs at risk. May be we need robust efficiency here in part to meet NS contracts.
      Winston

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    12. Eric, as to our island hydro, even that has had problems this last few years:
      When very cold weather and most needed, some sites had slush ice problems that curtailed production. That we have many island hydro sites, this tends to happen at maybe one site, not many. Also I think twice we have low rain fall, and water levels were low, and they had to spend 10s of millions in fuel for thermal generation. With climate change, such things may happen more frequent. So as the assumed capacity of wind is low , I believe NS assumes just 17 % of rated output as base power, so too might our hydro have to be reassessed if firm at present assumptions, subject to extreme cold temperatures and low rain fall. These are additional arguments why we should reduce our waste of energy and reduce our peak load, for security and reduce green house gas emissions, so thermal is rarely needed.
      WA

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    14. Thanks Winston for your extensive, precise response.

      Would you agree Winston that Nalcor should have plenty of hydro during winter, when UC operates at close to 100% capacity?

      With the present state of relations, I don't see how HQ would be inclined to unilaterally shift its UC operating pattern in order to fit Nalcor's requirements. Furthermore, CFLCo intensive UC turbines maintenance program is performed during that "17%" period (over what, 6 months?).

      Would Emera agree to receive its power block outside the summer period? (When UC operates at only 17% capacity)

      What's the summer load in the province? Would that leave Nalcor with enough hydro during the summer?

      Even with the way UC is currently operated, HQ would benefit if adding MF theoretical winter production, albeit with a day or two delay once MF turbines the flow.

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    15. A huge win - win opportunity definitely exists here. Hopefully cooler heads will eventually prevail...

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    16. With a possible max supply to soldiers pond near St Johns of say 828 MW, and island hydro of 1150, is close to 2000MW, exceeding our peak demand of say 1700 MW, allowing 300 MW to go to NS, and when not overly cold here, as much as 500 MW to NS.
      Nfld needs generally follow HQ for winter peaks, so if coordinated, and transmission to Nfld was proven reliable, it should be beneficial.
      Water Management agreement with HQ is essential, which was not done. Also Gull Power is 3-4 times more than MF and avoided the North Spur problem, so a big blunder to go with MF with less avg power than our island Bay deEpsoir, at such high cost.
      If MF was made safe, and Gull ever developed in partner with HQ, then all 3 being coordinated as to flow and generation has much potential, but only if HQ surplus generation get s taken up first it seems, for it to be economic.
      WA

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    17. FWIW, after reading some of the court decision, the "GWAC" (guaranteed winter availability) applies from November 1rst to March 31st. So we might assume that UC could be operated closer up to 100% capacity during that period. (well, its about 682MW additional, so we say can up to 115% capacity I guess)

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    18. Nfld summer load is only about 600 MW, sometimes less. If we had good water levels we could be exporting now to NS, but seems a number of generators under maintenance. Seems charts show a few trial export of power starting I think on June 14, but not currently exporting.
      I think MF will reduce power reliability on the Avalon of Nfld. Risk for outages is usually proportinal to the distance, and so 3 times further. Also the wicked terrain of the Great Norhtern Peninsula, prone to salt contamination, and icing.
      The entrance to the Avalon is another bad spot even for existing, which has seen severe icing that took down lines several times, that took over a week to restore. So MF has perhaps 15 times or more the distance of exposure. If MF goes down, even temporary it can take hours to restore , and if long term outage, we will have no Holyrood thermal backup, if that is decommissioned. So very much of a gamble.
      We were 85 % green island hydro compared to NS 20 % hydro. It was so easy and low cost for us to reach 98% green here. NS is well on its way since 2008 to achieve almost 500 MW reductions from robust energy efficiency. With 80 % of houses here on baseboard heat, causing our high winter peak, doing what NS is doing wold have been so appropriate and low cost offering stable rates here. But that is now mostly water under the bridge, as they say, a lost opportunity. But the future is still uncertain and questionable. A real mess it seems.
      WA

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    19. Like I said... NLers truly are their own worst enemies.

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    20. Thanks again Winston for your responses.

      So HQ's UC operating parameters (as low as 17% during the summer, and as hight as 115% during the winter, but probably closer to 100% most of the winter) seems to be actually a better fit for Nalcor's needs. There should be plenty of hydro for the whole province. (Except for the possible reliability issues you noted)

      Did I miss something?

      Eric

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    21. Yes,enough power and some surplus, as I indicated, subject to :
      1. Coordination with CF , which I assume could be worked out
      2 the north spur holds
      3 reliability
      4 power that cost over 60 cents per kwh, mixed with our existing 11 cent power, to cost 23 cents based on power growth of 0.8 percent per year, but actually declining demand,suggesting rates needing to exceed 23 cents to pay for it
      5 No revenue from NS on the first 160MW, and 5 cents rate on next 160MW
      6 NS power actually coming from our old low cost island hydro, more reliable than MFs, so we end up with both higher cost power and lower reliability.
      7 Serious Power loss from MFs is not if but when , and therefore requires Holyrood backup for the Avalon, no decommissioning, upgrades, or more gas turbines.
      8 Serious decline of power use on the island,even without incentives, as cost effective alternatives exist to electric baseboard heat,
      Other than that , a great make work project, projected by Dave Vardy to fall short of paying for itself by 500 million a year.
      A boondoggle first class. Not sure if I missed anything. Well, a Newfie joke, first class.
      Now the good points:
      Save 100 million a year at Holyrood for fuel
      Lower GHG from Holyrood
      About 50 million a year from NS on the second power block
      Savings I believe allowed by Vardy
      Have to ask Ed Martin, and now Stan Marshall for anything more. Power import form NS is fake news as they not enough themselves, and if a little from dirty coal.
      Not much to be positive about. And so no real mitigation plan.
      We are in a tough spot indeed. And our island problem could have been solved for about 1.5 billion instead of 13 billion and saddled with many problems.
      As I see it Eric.
      WA

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    22. So it could be a lttle premature to commit to a yearly $52M efficiency program if we might end up with surplus hydro, post MF (even w/o a water management agreement with HQ).

      Ok, don't shoot me, I know I'm stubborn ;-)

      Have a great night Winston!
      Always a pleasure exchanging with you.

      Eric

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    23. No, not stubborn, as the wisdom of energy efficiency if there is an energy surplus is a complicated issue with pros and cons.
      We are at least a decade late for a good efficiency program, that would have helped avoid MFs. We cannot have surplus hydro, if we consider Nfld and NS. If we get max winter power over the Labrador line, we can handle our load and maybe 300 MW to NS, but are still short 200 MW of what the Maritime link can handle. But why should Nflders go for efficiency to allow NS more power at only 5 cents? Perhaps NS should fund a Nfld efficiency program to benefit them to get more power? But individual interest and savings, we will do it, and a bonus for NS.
      To assume we will have surplus hydro and it be reliable is a stretch at this point, and take to about 2026 to allow 5 years of operation as to reliability, so almost another decade to know.
      Efficiency will happen anyway due to higher rates, which drives down power consumption on the island, and Vardy suggests it is better not to operate MFs, benefits insufficient to cover about 120M a year operation costs.
      Efficiency, assuming MF operates, will cause a transfer of costs from the ratepayer to the taxpayer, so to higher income people and corporations, a good thing.
      If MFs does not operate, then a robust incentive type efficiency would be good, if MFs operates, a moderate incentive type is better. We now have a very low incentive program. If efficiency is not good, then why have any incentive program now? Nfld Power is now to convert all street lights to LEDS, which benefits both them and the consumer. Why do it if it reduced the load, and impairs the case for MF which required a high load.
      One should ramp up for efficiency, from 5M to 10, to 20 and whether it should go higher.
      On a regional basis and a planetary basis, to counter climate change, robust efficiency is needed, and this argument should be a federal one, apart from the economics of just MFs, and extend to transportation etc.
      We are losing the battle to climate change, and any delay is dangerous. India now I think is cancelling hundreds of coal fired plants and going big on solar. 40% of our current hydro here is wasted on customer inefficiency. Efficiency programs are job creators. We are losing tradesmen now who can do with jobs locally. NB's relatively small efficiency program added 700 jobs.
      So, pros and cons, and whether a govn program or not , efficincy by the people will happen, even if that lowers the income for Nalcor and Fortis. Govn may slow down the rate, but efficiency will ramp up.
      So says I, Eric, and I think a good thing.
      Winston

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    24. Eric , as to our gifts to NS, I overlooked this: Our island wind potential.
      Now you may recall, Bruno harped on wind constantly, and more so with Tesla battery storage.
      But wind, Which is typical 3mw units, to be effective it generally needs to to be anchored, electrically, to large generators for stable power. Like the flywheel on the car engine, or the big cast iron wheel on the old single piston Acadia boat engine, the inertia of the wheel gives stability and smooths the operation.
      So wind normally can be about 15 percent of our grid load, but if finely controlled may go to 25%.
      So with almost 1200 MW of island hydro, 20% wind would be 240 MW. 600 MW of island wind is not practical.
      So NS asks, and Nalcor offers this wind asset to NS as a freebe, : sure take this and use our island grid to anchor your NS wind, with wind generators in NS. Wind was no good they falsely said to help Nfld avoid MFs, but NS covets and gets the benefit free.
      Now HQ will increase wind generation using their hydro generators to anchor their wind, as you would expect. But not Nalcor, we give this valuable asset away free. And so we the people are bled by a thousand cuts, by our leaders and power companies here. Our wind resource, mostly given away.
      Winston

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    25. Hi Winston,

      I particularly like when you say:

      "Efficiency, assuming MF operates, will cause a transfer of costs from the ratepayer to the taxpayer, so to higher income people and corporations..."

      You really well summarized the trade off dilemma here.

      So I'm really not convinced spending $52M/year is a good way to get there. Rate increases will achieve most of it, but at no costs (but we have to figure out that "optimal rate"...)

      But I agree rate increases will hurt the poors the most. Some kind of tax credit would be more effective to even things out. (FWIW, in Quebec we have that "Solidarity Tax Credit")

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    26. Agree, a robust 52 million a year Efficiency Program is overkill now at this stage, many middle class can afford and will do energy efficiency, and the low income group needs support or suffer heat poverty. The existing small incentive program now is deceptive and provides little benefit, and HP recommendations are inferior and offers little peak demand reduction when it is cold,(whereas NS uses Cold Climate Models)
      Many poorer people use electric radian heaters which are a fire hazard if left unattended, and overheat as the inlet blocks up with dust reducing air flow, so they use dangerous electric heat. Good incentives for that class makes more sense, and less to the middle and high income class. Incentives now for that class covers about 200 homes a year, so almost worthless as most are shut out. NS has about 35 Million a year program, very comprehensive.
      Here customer efficiency, little that there is, is paid for by ratepayers alone, from their power bill diversion of funds. In NS, shareholders of Emera picks up some of the cost for customer efficiency, which would be a shocking concept here, Nfld Power now wanting a higher 9.5 % guaranteed return instead of 8.5 %, so as the customer can afford less with increasing rates, the power companies want more profits.
      We need a Bernie Sanders type here to shame the power companies and politicians, that created this boondoggle.Not sure if our Consumer Advocate or Judge Leblanc is up to the task? So interesting times ahead.
      Winston

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  35. AJ, don't put too much emotions into the sometime abrasive tone Heracles has been using.

    He's been providing us very interesting inside info on what HQ is facing when dealing with CFLCo, Nalcor and Nfld politics. In my mind, this is invaluable. Just analyse his arguments, and constructively debate on it like you usually do.

    Regards

    Eric

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    1. Was going to have a few choice words, but will refrain, since you and Winston seem to be having an in depth discussion. And don't you worry or give to much advice on my emotions, as they are totally under control. Thanks, average Joe.

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    2. AJ, after re-reading, I indeed used a poor choice of word, which definitely went behond my thoughts. I definitely need better English language skills.

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    3. Eric, I find your English excellent, with an occasional word that could be better. Wish I had such skill as yours for the French language, and I blame my schooling which had Latin as a second language!As for Joe, he is a pretty straight shooter, calls it as he sees it, in interesting language. The most enjoyable commentator here, my opinion, and can give and take. Pity if Heracles takes offence and quits, but that says something too.
      WA

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    4. Winston, I left because it was the only and last option I had to respect you.

      In March, even UG himself agreed that there was way too much of your bullshit about heat pumps. He filtered a few post from you at that moment but clearly, that was not enough for you to stop talking about it.

      David Vardy made an entire post just for you, explaining all that one of the few things that would be worst than MF would be to do it and add an efficiency program to it, so you would end up paying twice for it. Again, that was not enough for you to understant.

      So here is the deal I can offer you: I will keep monitoring the blog for 15 days. If you do not post a single post about heat pump and efficiency, I will come back.

      If you keep living in the past when such a thing would have been good, I will leave you in your past and keep going with my present and future.

      If you keep pushing for increased endebtment by spending more money you don't have to ensure your government will collect less, I will let you fast forward your ruin with your Efficient Endebtment Program.

      If you keep pushing for collecting even more from the richer, remember that they are the ones for who to option to Leave-N-Live is the most attractive and as such, the first to fly. So if you keep pushing your demography in the wrong direction, then again, you will have to do it without me.

      I refuse to live in the past, no matter mine or yours.
      I refuse to encourage more endebtment, no matter at individual or provincial level, mine ou yours.
      I refuse to keep pushing the demography the wrong way, no matter mine or yours.

      See you in 15 days if I do not see a single new post about heat pump and efficiency from you,

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    5. Heracles: I think you are doing Winston an injustice. Winston: don't think I am defending you, I simply realize that you cannot break out of your Newfoundland cultural script.

      (On the whole principle/concept of "cultural script", see this: https://files.eric.ed.gov/fulltext/ED398737.pdf)

      Heracles, the problem you are encountering is simple: in Newfoundland culture it is an unspoken convention (part of the "cultural script" that is universally internalized by Newfoundlanders, and which therefore is treated as a self-evident truth) that one not speak of social class. As a society which has been ruled by the same ("Townie") elite for centuries, whose position has never been threatened, it is understood that Resistance Is Futile. As a result, Newfoundlanders do not just identify with their province: they identify with their province *and its elite*, whose local domination is seen as something as immutable as the laws of physics, and whose interests are perceived as the same as all Newfoundlanders'.

      Winston cannot grasp that a widespread use of heat pumps in Newfoundland would lead to a worsening degradation of the (already terrible) fiscal situation of the province of NL. He cannot grasp this point because anything which reduces power consumption for individuals in NL (including heat pumps...) is indeed a good thing. What he assumes, wrongly, as a result of his Newfoundland cultural script, is that a widespread use of heat pumps must also be good for the province as a whole.

      The only way he could understand your point, Heracles, would be by separating ordinary individuals' interests within NL from those of the Townie Elite and of the province as a whole. His cultural script utterly prohibits him from doing so. Indeed, it prohibits ALL Newfoundlanders from doing so.

      Thus, haven't you noticed that we Non-Newfoundlanders are the only ones who have ever brought up social class in the comments? Or pointed out how MF makes perfect sense as a scheme to transfer wealth to Newfoundland elites at the expense of ordinary Newfoundlanders? A list of such wealth transfer rackets could be made: For instance, think of the lawyers challenging Hydro-Quebec and the UC contract all the way to the Supreme Court, making all that money, compliments of the NL taxpayer (It does explain why anti-Quebec sentiment is rampant, doesn't it?). I do not think this is an accident.

      I understand that here has been talk recently of changing NL's Coat of Arms: Allow me, as a humble and interested outsider, to suggest that NL's provincial motto, instead of "Quaerite Prime Regnum Dei", should be the following quotation of Goethe's:

      “Niemand ist hoffnungsloser versklavt als jene, die fälschlicherweise glauben, frei zu sein.”

      Look it up (It's in German, not French, and thus will not offend local anti-Quebec sentiment). I think it describes most Newfoundlanders to a T. Sadly.

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    6. Etienne,
      Good to see you back. I recall your raising the question of class, and little response here on UG. I or someone may have made a comment. But do I fit the "cultural script" you describe? Perhaps only Bruno has been more critical of some of the elite Townie social class, or maybe PF, and that elite class has power over the whole society. Now I have said that a transfer of MF debt from ratepayers to taxpayers and corporations is good, which puts more burden on that elite class, which you imply is good. You take issue that such a move however is detrimental to the whole province, and its financial situation, that is your argument, correct?
      Now, as to our Coat of Arms, which was raised on UG by PF, I think, in a rant, urging Judge Leblanc to remove it from his court room. I mentioned recently I worked on a sketch of a redesign, and offered a reward for a best redesign, but no takers so far. I googled your quote of Goethe, and came up empty. Could you please translate it for me, as I too had in mind a different motto from the current one.
      That I and Average Joe keep track of your general view,... was it that Nfld would be completely depopulated from the MFs fallout?
      Notice I have avoided now for 5 hours the word that Heracles wants banned or that I cease to use for 15 days. He drives a hard bargain!
      Class .....yes, the root of Nfld problems, and appropriate under discussion about Ches Crosbie, as one of that class. Good point. Needs more discussion. Will Leblanc protect the interests of that class structure, instead of We the People?
      Winston

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    7. Omg Winston, so much to say about the last couple of post and will say it soon, but just to say now... Think the gothic quote is: , "there is a form of bondage more potent than the illusion of freedom". Cheers, average Joe.

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    8. A most interesting quote, and not to be dismissed Joe, I submit, like our young men lost in WW1, fighting from freedom we are reminded, and those in WW2, many in semi starvation from a decade of Depression and the Commission of Govn, 6 cents a day dole. There is the line that comes to mind from the Kris Kristosferson song, freedom is another word, when you have nothing left to lose. I guess Etienne implied we are serfs to those that promote such schemes as MFs, and also promote anti Quebec sentiment. Now I take issue with some of his views but this may be not far off, I wonder? Now if such a quote was on our quote of arms, what should the symbols show?
      I had in mind a motto "Love thy neighbour as thyself", which says more if you saw my symbols.
      Winston
      Winston

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    9. Yes, Winston, I like the KK song too, but the last too comments are so off base they are ludicrous. I could write a book on both but wil try and limit my comments to a couple of brief points. The first one was just laughable, commanding you to give up about heat pumps, like telling a cow to stop producing milk, Winston that is your right to say what you feel and think, and I say keep it up, and he won't come back, and good riddance as I said before. But, HP is your raison d'être, it is what you have taken on before muskrat sanction, and if taken seriously could have prevented muskrat. Your single handed efforts could been our saving grace. Keep it up. If and when I invest in a HP it will be my personal decision, based simply on my personal circumstances, and that is what democracy is all about. They want to take away you democrat right to even talk about it. Now on the second comment, that is insulting to all of us, because it is just pulled out of a hat, and portrait as if it were written just for us, and all about us, "cultural script". Curtural script has been written about all nationalities, Russia, China, Korea, Japan, Germany, France, Spain, you name it, but maybe not for canada, and certainly not Newfoundland. So our so called learnered friend tosses, "the elite townie" in our midst like a granide and thinks he has rediscovered archemides principle of flotation. Horatios, horatios, I have found it, I have found it. And runs through the street naked. How many papers have you written and published on "cultural script"??? Zilch, Nadia!!! How many of our premiers have been from "the townie elite"? Uno. Yes the great Dannie. And while we are on quotes, here is one for him in plain English, which we all understand. "A clever man commits no minor blunders". I wrote briefly on all our premiers and politicans a few months ago, to give our so called friends an understanding of who we are. They ignored it totally, made a stab in the dark, about our cultural script. Are they, the " three wise men" on our cultural, no the three bullshitters, about our cultural, not one of them have ever set foot on NL soil. Yet, they are now, all three, experts about us. And here is a quote that best describes the three of them, "there is nothing more frightful than ignorance in action". So that brings us to the bondage of "the townie elite". What a farce. There may have been some truth in that ages ago, but almost half the population, now lives on the Avalon, or around the St. John's area as one might say, and probably 80 percent of those people have their roots from around the bay. From paddy on vocm to the billionaire, Stan the man, and almost everyone in between. We don't have the Irvings, like New Brunswick, that owners the entire province, twice as big as their government. We have a few names but no one that we are be holding too. Or do I shiver in my shoes, when I hear the name, "Ball". No I laugh in their face, as I do with most other politicans or so called, " townie elites". So get a life boys, and write about something you know something about, or learn to learn about something you know nothing about. One last taught, if you wanted a phrase for our cost of arms. It might be, "we are our own worst enemies". Now put that in your pipe and smoke it says, Joe blow, average Joe, AJ.

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    10. What a wonderful comment, average Joe,not just average Joe, better than the best, I say.
      And your motto " we are our own worst enemies" made my biggest smile of many reading your piece.
      And yes, I have now silenced Heracles for at least 15 days, and have the power to silence him forever, if I so choose, and he has any integrity to keep his word. As Trumpie says, we'll see what happens.
      Winston

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  36. I commented that on July 1 my attic was about 66F at noon and dropped to 61F at about 4pm. Also that several years ago,in MAY I recorded 119F in the attic. Today it shows 124 F. A bath is usually 105F, a hot water tank 130F. I have 83 F indoor with the windows open, and I have HPS here 2 years and not yet installed, and would be good now for AC, which I do have in my cottage.
    Parts of California today to reach 118 F outdoors. Yet here the ocean is yet to cold for the capelin to spawn at the beach. Snow 2 weeks ago at Gander. THis is technically weather, and the long term trends is climate change : which shows many places will be unfit to live. ANd what do we do? Pump more oil and GHG! We need the revenue, hey b'ys. Need to double our production, and drill in fish conservation areas even.
    WA

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    1. Your attic isn't properly ventilated.

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    2. You are right, it is underventilated. I have an exhaust fan there that is not on. If well ventilated the temperature would be about 105 F
      WA

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    3. Your lost.

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    4. Anon, the under ventilated attic was by design,to see the potential for solar gain into the attic. Max heat gain is by reduced ventilation, darkness of shingles, and slope of roof, and increased height to the peak. Too much heat is a problem in summer but heat gain is very beneficial in winter and shoulder seasons, and ventilation must be sufficient to avoid condensation problems.
      Did you get lost in understanding that?
      WA

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    5. You're like the guy who was standing on the corner beating himself over the head with a piece of 2X4.... thump! thump!, thump! on and on..

      When ask why he kept beating himself over the head like that he replied "Because it feels so good when I stop".

      Describes the Newfie mentality to T. Maybe a form of Etienne's "cultural script".

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    6. Sounds like a reply by Heracles, and since it took 3 days to come up with such a silly reply, it suggests a very sluggish thought process by anon, and a thicker skull that the guy on the corner. You surely got lost in understanding that a black roof is a solar heater, beneficial in the north and a problem in the south. Suggest you study physics, but just a little, as too might confuse you.
      WA

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    7. Whatever...

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  37. If memory serves, the UG piece that had the most comments was when VOCM fired Pete Soucey, ticking off many readers. Maybe 130 comments.
    This one on Ches Crosbie seems to set a new record. Crosbie thinks people can be fooled all the time.
    I read form the Make NL Dark Again facebook that there is momentum to have many Independents run in 2019, everyone is so pissed with all:Tories, Liberals , NDP , alike.
    I wondered for a catchy line, like Danny Williams used against Harper: ABC (Anybody But Conservative) that was effective. I wondered about something similar,still using ABC......Anything But ?
    So , how about for the Independents to use ABC: Anything But Cronyism?
    Many suggest the problem always here is that the politicians are accountable, not to WE THE People, but to their financial supporters, the companies looking for and getting favours, and that the politicians are just a front for the crony operators who pull the strings.
    So: Take it Independents. ABC..... Time for a real change.
    AG

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  38. AG, I see your rational to some extent. But here is how I see it for the next election, it will be a very critical time for our short term fincincial situation, mainly to satisfy our bond agencies, and lending agencies and rates etc. But just speaking as an average person with no expertise in government fincinancing. But we are now reduced to 40 seats from 52 in the legislature, so much easier to elect a minority govt. since way back in the early 70' s with Smallwood and Moores, with a one seat majority and the shenanigans that occurred then. So with a fourth party or a slate of reliable candidates, could easily see a miniority govt. let's say one of the major parties were to win 17 or 18 seats, and would have to depend, let's say on the NDP, to make a majority in the House, the govt goes to the bond agencies with a fiscal plan for borrowing, and let's assume Rogers wants a very social orientated plan and the bond agencies rejects it and ask for changes, a small party of maybe 3 or 4 members will decide our critical future considering muskrat drag. I just used the NDP as an example, it could be any of the other parties or let's say four independents. ( remember the power that Tom Burgess wielded back in the early seventies, and hardly a click between his two ears) So what happens, we go into dire fincincial straits, or a new election, or what. I think it would be the time for a strong government, and let them take the heat, and do the right think for the province, to satisfy our lenders. So, I personally think it is too critical of a time to mess around with the possibility of minority govts. Others may think differently, but you better present your rational for those possibilities, says average Joe.

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