Thursday, 3 May 2018

CAN CHES CROSBIE REBUILD A BROKEN PARTY?

If new Tory leader Ches Crosbie had hoped to wear the moniker “Landslide” after last weekend’s vote, the Party had no qualms denying him any such expression of unanimity.
The contest was a straight two-way leadership race. With Crosbie winning 57% of the vote against 43% for Tony Wakeham, according to the media, the outcome was respectable but hardly overwhelming.

Wakeham came into the race late and with a communications plan that didn’t include the general public. He exhibited little knowledge of public policy issues, too.

In contrast, Crosbie demonstrated preparedness and a willingness to engage people on the ground and on social media. His legal experience shone through the process; his speech was thoughtful and careful.



To say that he is not the most exciting politician is an understatement but Crosbie, like his father in the early days of his political career, probably knows he will have to find another reason to convince people why they should like him.

It is not unkind to suggest that, in the excitement department, Dwight Ball has already done much of the heavy lifting; ennui follows either of them onto the stage.

Crosbie’s timing may be fortuitous if only because the public is — or ought to be — tired of the cult of personality fomented by former Premier Danny Willliams. His self-styled Chavismo, noteworthy for its absence of humour, humility, fiscal responsibility, notions of governance or even common sense, is thought in some circles to have set the P.C. Party back, possibly for decades.

Following the Tory-created Muskrat debacle, the public may be ready to dissociate from populists and their jingoistic rants. The next Premier who takes down a flag, or wraps himself in it, might just have to fly from the mast too.

Even if the Liberals have been weak to the point of stupidity, their strategy of suppressing the long-term economic and social consequences of our fiscal position, with Muskrat layered on for good measure, does not negate legitimate questions as to how we have arrived in such a precarious spot.  

Crosbie must address how a Party that was once a model for Canada as a force for institutional development in the 70s and 80s could have seen those same institutions crushed or circumvented during the last decade.

And, with respect to Muskrat, it won’t be enough for Crosbie to say: it’s not my fault, I wasn’t there. Crosbie leads the Party that ordained and facilitated the policy decisions that presaged the debacle. It drags on him like a millstone.

Mr. Crosbie can also say that his only job is the constitutional role of opposition to the Government.  But, given the magnitude of the disaster that describes the Party’s decade in power, that approach won’t wash either — especially as the public gets a better handle on the full extent of the crisis and how the Liberals have inexplicably hidden its overall consequences. 

In short, it will fall to Crosbie to figure out the words that will herald a new era of integrity in the Party and that get the public to buy in.

Admittedly, Ball's handling of the "bullying" affair helps give the Tories an easy road but discounting another year and a half of amateur hour, we might ask in reference to Mr. Crosbie's mandate: can a political party corrupted by special interests be reborn?  

Not easily, for sure. But if it is possible, it is only because our culturally-entrenched two-party system abets forgiveness or denial of corruption and deceit when performed by partisans on behalf of the tribe.

For that reason alone, our party system can’t be divorced from those who define our political values. The outcome of an election, after all, is also a commentary on the body politic, who barely participate — some not at all — but who expect miracles from the process and will slate it when it doesn’t deliver. On this account, the public has some soul-searching to do. The process might achieve greater clarity if a leader emerges who can help identify what needs fixing. Is that person Ches Crosbie?

Certainly he has won himself a big spring-cleaning job which includes decisions both urgent and tricky.

It is only natural, following a leadership contest in which factions and divisions are exposed, that a new leader will want to pursue a course of healing and unification. Except Crosbie doesn’t have that luxury.

Crosbie did not have the support of the majority of the current Tory Caucus. At least four if not five of the seven-member Opposition, including Paul Davis, supported Wakeham — the latter thought to be alligned with former Premier and political meddler Danny Williams. The loyalty of most, but not all, of the Opposition’s support staff, too, is rated as doubtful.

The small size of the Tory Caucus is a huge limitation for Crosbie. He will have to decide whether, in spite of the lack of mutual trust, he should make nice with the Caucus anyway, until after the next general election. Does he appoint Paul Davis to be his voice during Question Period in the House of Assembly, knowing that his agenda and Davis’ are not a match? How could Davis possibly represent the change that Crosbie has spoken of, anyway?

If Crosbie plans to differentiate himself from Williams, Dunderdale, Marshall and Davis, who have brought the Party to the brink, he must manifest real change, not more of the fake variety. He must not only embrace a value system that is fundamentally different from theirs, but he needs to excise from the Party that very group whose arbitrariness, ego and stupidity inspired the harm done to the province.  Each represents dead weight, except only to the group whose patriotism is little more than a slogan of the St. John’s Board of Trade.

Crosbie needs to show that he means business. He should lay down markers early, lest he be risk becoming unseemly like his recent forbears.

That done, Crosbie needs to find some solid candidates to run in the next election.

It’s a hell of a job he has won. He will need more than a few breaks to succeed.

Unfortunately for him, his Party doesn’t deserve any.

76 comments:

  1. So, is he , or isn't he, a Rhodes Scholar, pray tell?
    PF

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    1. Is he, or isn't he...... dose it make a difference? He is still immersed in NL culture, and in the dysfunctional NL political culture. It remains to be seen. If his education and life experiences make him an enlightened leader.. or just a merchants son.

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    2. Only his hair dresser knows for sure!
      PF

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  2. UG says he needs to expel(excise) from the party those whose ego and stupidity inspired the harm done to the province.
    So, who does that leave? Crosbie's web site had shown a photo of half a dozen supporters, all who seemed to me to be those as describes that should be expelled.
    Also, Crosbie says he is a good listener. His web site had mentioned he listens to his advisers, but never said who his advisers were. So how can we judge Ches the man, if he hides the identity of his advisers? Are they the back room boys, many who maybe members of the ST.JOHN'S board of trade, that helped bring us Muskrat? Who at MUN, if anyone, does he take advise from on economics, or engineering, or health issues?
    Ok, we know he admires Winston Churchill, likes moose meat, fine food that lacks nutrition, and wants to help fellow lawyers by dropping auto insurance as a first priority.......and that he got away with drunk driving.
    Now will the real Ches stand up? We need to know more about Ches. I will suggest it not necessary to advise the public of his favorite sexual position, how big his hands are, or if he has cheated on his wife like Trump. But what is his energy policy? What would you do with the carbon tax to aid our residents? And are you to stay close mouthed on Muskrat until Leblanc whitewashed the guilty? What of our fishery policy? Should the commercial capelin fishery be stopped?
    PF

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    1. The last candidate who had his own team ready to go was Bill Barry. The party brass and caucus said "not-so-fast Bill" and declared Frank Coleman as their man until Mr. Coleman abruptly pulled the plug for some unknown reason. Does Mr. Crosbie have the political moxie and skill to eradicate the current party leadership? Only time will tell however my gut tells me "highly unlikely". Boy this place needs a new party desperately. Keith

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  3. Happy with the Liberal party under Dwight Ball?
    Answer: NO.

    Are the NDP are a viable alternative?
    Answer: NO.

    Guess I'm voting PCs with Ches Crosbie.

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    1. May I add... happy with the PC's and their legacy. Definitely NOT.
      How to vote?... none of the above.

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    2. PC, then Liberal, then PC, then Liberal, and so on... don't give any party more than one term unless they really deserve it...

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  4. The Grand River , known as the Churchill, must be grand to watch at Grizzle Rapids, where the web site says they plan to install a camera in 2018.
    Of all the river monitors , this one is perhaps the most important to give advance notice of the big melt during the spring thaw, and whether to lift and open the gates at the MF spillway or let the reservoir rise higher.
    On April 3 , the flow at Grizzle was about 1750 cubic meters per sec.
    On it own , the flow had dropped to 1400 by April 23, as the flow drops off at the tail end of winter, before picking up in spring.
    On Apr 23, , Churchill Falls reduced its electricity production and the flow at Grizzle dropped to about 1100. This would help delay a rise in the MF reservoir as the melt progressed.
    Now, with the melt underway, Grizzle flow is back up to 1450, a rise in flow of 50 percent in just 6 days, and this just about 35 miles upstream of the spillway at MF.
    This means there will be a swelling of the reservoir elevation higher, or a judgement to lower the reservoir by opening the gates. It appears the gates have been opened some as the reservoir has dropped a little, about 6 inches since yesterday. Accordingly, the water has risen a bit at Mud Lake and at Happy Valley. It appears the rated has risen at a slower rate at English point, near the outlet to lake Melville. This suggest maybe the potential for some flooding at Mud lake, that the ice at English point is offering resistance to water flow into Lake Melville. This is perhaps the normal thing to happen, at this time frame, and how it might be mitigated, to modest rise at Mud lake, with the spillway gates.
    Winston Adams
    Perhaps Peng2 or others can comment.
    Also the water flow charts at Grizzle is not seen unless you click underneath the water elevation chart, which brings up more data. Just realized that, this last evening. Water flow there is most telling in advance of the might of the river at spring and it's effect downstream. Water elevation ,at Grizzle, rises slightly, less than a meter so far, , but flow increased 50 percent!
    Winston Adams

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  5. UH OH; Hope the new improved Tory Party is not, as Ball Gov. has stated, expecting offshore oil revenues to mitigate power rates;

    https://thetyee.ca/News/2018/05/02/Government-Revenue-Fossil-Fuels-Sharp-Declin/

    Whatever happens in next election, neither Party should be afforded a majority. After all Ches, like Dougie is a "man of the people". What are his vested interest supporters to do?

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  6. instead of asking "CAN CHES CROSBIE REBUILD A BROKEN PARTY?" you should ask yourself "Can any party rebuild this broken province?"

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  7. Good on Paul Withers, professional journalist;

    http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/bilcon-443-million-denied-ns-quarry-1.4645199

    The Art of the Deal crowd strikes down local objection to a "not needed here" mega project, based on NAFTA clauses. Sort of like the Pipeline fracas, Churchill Falls transmission, and future Muskrat transmission to US markets. As Trumpie would say "Stay tuned".

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    1. Robert...why only links to sites that espouse a left-wing bias? Keith

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    2. Global and CTV don't seem to have picked up on the significance of this National story yet. Have you been able to find any such commentary? I have always scanned the alt news to get some balance. From Fox on down. What reliable sources do you rely on?

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    3. Robert...my point was that the links you provide are typically from left-leaning medial outlets like the CBC, Global, CTV, thetyee.ca, etc. I rarely hear "balanced" views, let alone news, from these outlets. In Canada about the only papers that offer some balanced commentary are the National Post and some Sun newspapers. I can't think of any balanced on-the-air MSM in Canada.

      I suspect you and I are on opposite ends of the political spectrum but that does not mean I will not entertain opposing points of view. The left, especially in Canada, dominates the media and is quick to shout down any dissent. Keith

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    4. Pas problem Keith;

      What would you say this is about?

      http://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/b-c-hydro-will-no-longer-pay-homeowners-for-extra-power-they-generate

      When are we going to get NALCOR into the game of buying back ratepayer produced RE?

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    5. Not surprised given that BC Hydro is another crown corporation. Crown corp's are not subject to market discipline and its' vagaries. Yet for some reason we seem to want more of it despite the overwhelming evidence that government run enterprises typically fail.

      My father worked as a technician at Nfld Light & Power (NLP) back when it was called NLP. When they needed a meter of some sort he had to go to the tool crib to sign it out and they had to be careful with it as there were only two available. Along comes Joseph Smallwood and the creation of Nfld Hydro (NH). One of the ex-NLP employees who went to work with NH stopped by one day and said we have one of those meters for each technician. Such is the way of Crown Corp's.

      To your question, "If at all possible yes." Do I expect it to happen? Not a chance. The way things work here is a new Dept. of Renewable Energy will be created. We'll hire a bunch more civil servants and subsidize installation of solar panels on the ever-foggy south coast and call it successful. Cheers Robert. Keith

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    6. Thanks Keith, I too get the picture on utilities; Worked at Ma Bell for 10 years in the 60's. There is no need to set up a new Dept of Renewable. The existing Energy Ministry can facilitate it through the private sector, as is happening around the globe. The crown corp for oil off NL, is the stupid way. On this we both agree. Crown Power Corps such as HQ seem to work, not so good in most provinces, including BC.

      Here's a "Balance" comment by Dr. Suzuki on "pretend economics" by National Post:-)


      https://thetyee.ca/Opinion/2018/05/04/David-Suzuki-Is-Right/?utm_source=daily&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=040518

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  8. His new chief of staff is Williams' Minister Dan Crummell, an old boy of old boys. So no change there...

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  9. I will cast a vote of "Government Dissatisfaction"...I will use a permanent ink marker and draw a Big Black X through all Parties.If you don't like whats going on, its the only way we can show that we are fed up with this bull shit government ... At this point in History it doesn't matter who gets elected to power...Damage done.

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  10. This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

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    1. Guess we have been over this one so many times, and we keep coming up with the same answer....the best information available at the time.....no the best LIES thet were available at the time....Trumpie type lies. When the questions were asked to CD, EM and others the first two questions, 1) do we need the power??, their eyes would gloss over, and the standard answer was, "a no brainer, we need the power", next question. 2) is muskrat the least cost option, "another no brainer, yes, and would quote by how many billion, next question". And having lied to these two basic fundamental questions, nothing beyond that was worth listening to, most tuned out after those two lies, except the brave fearless media, having done their job, eagerly persued other questions that were irevelant, having gotten the wrong answers to the first two questions. These two questions were never answered to the satisfaction of a lot of people. EM et al got their future energy need by starting in with the seventies numbers, and projecting from there, the increase up to 2020 and beyond. But as we all know that is when most homes began to getting hooked up for electric base board heaters, before that most relied on other sources of heating, especially out side of St. John's, people had the lights before that but used wood, coal, oil, etc for their main heating source. And EM was told his projections were done incorrectly with the wrong data. Eddie is not that stunned, he is just a liar, and intentionally created those lies to justify muskrat. Now will Leblanc deal with that, or will he accept the convential wisdom of the time, of using false data for our electrical projections. That is the 15$ billion dollar question????? Joe blow, average Joe, AJ.

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    2. So, if our electric heat loads in winter caused us to opt for Muskrat falls, since during cold temperatures it triggers the highest peak loads, what were the peak loads this winter during the coldest nights or days?
      Jan 11, -11.0 C...1510 MW
      Feb 3...-11.6 C...1534 MW
      Feb 4...-12.4 C...1526 MW
      Feb 14..-12.6 C...1559 MW
      Feb 17..-13.6 C...1505 MW
      Feb 18..-13.4 C...1468 MW
      Feb 26..-13.3 C...1602 MW (note; windchill was -18C)

      So, with hitting a peak on Dec 27 @ 1648 MW, with only -7.0 C, and anywhere from 46 to 180 MW less demand during much colder weather, does this suggest a dramatic change as to the relationship of peak load and winter heat, as compared to the past? And if so , why? power rates have not yet increases hardly, as to what is to come.
      Now Nfld Power says they could find NO peak reduction from HPs in 2015, during their analysis, which they admitted was not even reliable, and no engineer signed off on it.!
      So where will our peak winter loads be in 3, 5, or 10 years time?
      Would James Feehan (or other MUN expert, or the power companies) be brave enough to assess where our peak winter loads will be going forward, using evidence based space heating and other end use efficiency data?
      Winston Adams

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    3. Hey Winston, why dontcha just move to the tropics? Then you won't have to get yourself all bent out of shape over winter heat loads and heat pumps and peak power and all that other crap, yah?

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    4. Anon @ 21:55

      Looks like you're one of those who can afford the upcoming power rate increase or you're one of those who is going to be subsidized by the Government. Otherwise you wouldn't be making stupid comments like that. Get a life!

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    5. Hey, anom at 21:55, seems I am getting your goat, and you prefer to hide such data.
      That 12.7 billion was wasted to address our winter baseboard heating loads puts egg on a lot of faces,... faces, like the KKK that would rather be covered.
      You call rapidly reducing winter peak loads, heat pumps that reduce these loads by over 60 percent,CRAP! SOME CRAP. And I some advocate of such crap.
      What is crap is MFs, perhaps you are one of those that promoted it.
      But yes , I am a bit bent out of shape, my spine twisted 1.5 inch off centre, but believe it is caused by an inappropriate medication, or other cause. Thought to get some medical weed to try, but was told it would not work, and being addictive,maybe that is best. My interest in HP goes back to 1976......in Ontario now they offer up to 20,000.00 grants to homeowners for ground source units..........so must be crap , yes, and a gas company want in on distribution ground lines for such systems, imagine that, gas companies getting into such crap!
      Winston Adams

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    6. You go Winston, Group UG has got your back!

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  11. Seems my comment had been deleted, and cites the latest on our past winter peak demand , being only 1648 MW on Dec 27 2017, likely a result of outdoor Xmas light, as the weather was only -7C.
    Forecasts by the power companies from 2001 projected over 1800 MW peak load bu 2016, and growth by 0.8% per year to justify MF, but now falling at about 1.5 % per year.
    I wonder is Ches Crosbie is tuned in to our peak load issues as to his energy policy , if he has one?
    Winston Adams

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    1. Joe, seems to me you hit the nail on the head, with Ed Martin, he was not that stun!
      First claim we need the power.......no media questioning, and MUN and the power companies and most others silent.
      Second , say MF was the least cost option by 2 billion, , without considering other alternatives. So those deceptions on the public and it was down hill from there for sanction.
      You ask if Leblanc will deal with that or accept the use of false data for our energy projections by the power companies? And I would add , avoiding best practices for forecasting:that is "End use analysis", which even Manitoba Hydro Int pointed out, and our power companies still avoid it today!
      Winston

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    2. So Winston, if your comment was delegated, then your numbers must be incorrect?? Do you know which ones were correct or which ones were incorrect. If the administrator deleted your numbers, then he must have the correct ones, and will post them. Thanks, AJ.

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    3. Joe, Possible I could have made an error, but my data was from an email posted on Vision 2041 from Nalcor. They did mention that there was a curtailment of power, which could have otherwise been some additional load, but did not cite the amount of curtailment, so I no longer know what I posted exactly, once it was deleted .....so maybe someone will advise.
      And I am currently monitoring something even more important that Hps and peak load, or the Churchill river rise : that is blood platelet counts.
      I will explain: when at risk of a blood clot, your platelets increase or clot together, so risk of stroke or lung clot etc, typical 20 % risk of death, so blood thinners are used.
      Warafin is most used, and monitored closely, as too much blood thinner and you bleed internally, and risk of death from that, so the idea is to balance by monitoring.
      Lovenox is another type, suggested (insisted locally) to require NO monitoring, and locally not being monitored for any patients.
      Now the most successful of USA hospitals, with reduced death rates, say "to monitor platelets and adjust dosage Lovenox accordingly". The manufacturer also says to monitor platelets, so I believe that monitor of platelets is prudent, but goes against accepted wisdom here.
      Now this is off topic, but could explain if I made an error on my previous posting, as this platelet monitoring is rather a stressful issue, you might imagine, especially when observing adverse side effects. Apart from this, I still could have made an error.
      As an average Joe, ( and I think above average) would you want monitoring or not of platelets, if you were faced with this?
      Winston Adams


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    4. Difficule to comment on Winston, as it seems you are talking about a very serious healt situation.. I could only offer empathy and sympathy, and best of luck, and hope proper care is available. So yes, proper care would include monitoring of all related aspects including platelets and any medication given. Wishing you all the best. Thanks. AJ.

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    5. Thanks for your reply Joe, and appreciate your opinion that monitoring of platelets and all aspects is prudent, and should be part of proper care. This is an issue as to a very close relative, and so impacts me, but relevant to anyone (and there are many) prescribed this drug, who are not aware of need for, and denied monitoring.
      I remain optimistic for a good health outcome. Thanks.
      Winston

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  12. "If Crosbie plans to differentiate himself from Williams, Dunderdale, Marshall and Davis, who have brought the Party to the brink, he must manifest real change, not more of the fake variety."
    This can only be done if Ches Crosbie invites a province wide referendum on the system of government that we now have and offer real substantial changes to the way we elect MHA's and the distribution of information to the public.
    I propose that we halve the number of MHA's and districts but increase the number of representatives in the legislative body to 50. A total of 25 districts and the remainder elected in the same election by proportional representation (based on the vote from the districts) and each party leader would also have to name their cabinet from that 25 before the election. This will make it a little more attractive to professionals who would rather not campaign in a district but province wide on the issues. The speaker should also be elected every five years and have the responsibility of overseeing "independent" bodies such as PUB, Human Rights Commision, Staus of Women etc. These changes will give the general public a better say from an issues point of view in who represents them both from their district and cabinet

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    1. Reform the political system in NL? How dare you say such a thing. This is treason and you need to be locked up. Noone questions our dear leaders wisdom. Not never.

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  13. In consideration of the abuse happening within the NL cabinet, at least it seems not to have been to the extent that AB premier has been subjected;

    http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/notley-premier-threats-security-1.4644989

    cranks from all stripes want to punish their politicians.

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  14. Todays Telegram has a big item on Fortis whose AGM was yesterday.......now with 1 billion a year net earnings.
    CEO Barry Perry is anxious to buy the Nfld transmission line facilities (obviously for a fair value , he says) of Nfld Hydro or Nalcor , I assume, as a way to mitigate the fall out of Muskrat falls and so that all customers can benefit from the efficiencies. He says that, as in other jurisdictions , one company can generate while another can distribute.(Quebec does both does it not, and has the lowest power rates in north America))
    Now, at the side of this Telegram article , up pops a ad from the legal firm Cox & Palmer. I clicked the ad, and it allows you to search for names, so I typed in Wells Clyde. And who would think , up pops his photo, and with a big smile, his phone # 570 5526, and email address; ckwells@coxandpalmer.com. It say he is "counsel"
    Who would think that only Faceboook and Cambridge Analitica can only make connections like this, and so connect the reader from the Telegrams puff piece for Fortis , right to CK Wells, once Premier, and then wanting to do something similar as Fortis CEO Perry now advocates: take ownership of the Nfld transmission lines. Why not? Is he a disinterested party, with no conflict of interest?
    PF

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    1. Interesting!!!! So if fortis buys the nl tranmission line, for a fair penny, where does that leave emera? Part owner too. What's in it for us, the ratepayers and taxpayers. Maybe it is good for us. I have no idea. What scares me is back room deals, because if that's the driving force, ratepayers beware. Who is looking after our best interest, the elected government, consumer advocate, nalcor, NL power, the PUB, which law firm????? As the average joe, I don't know, I am not into the wheeling and dealings of those companies, and billion dollar profits, and billion dollar deals are beyond my comphrenesive understanding. But given the facts most people can see a bad deal from a reasonable one for us. PF you raised a lot of questions. Where are the answers, and dont depend on the brillant media to keep us informed. Who can we depend on to look out for our best interest, that is another 15$ billion question???? This one may not fall into Leblanc's domain. Cheers, Joe blow.

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    2. Still awaiting Heracles insider on Supreme Court decision, and the private takeover deal involving CF, MF transmission links, etc. Betting on money bags; Fortis, Emera, HQ partnership. When will M. Trudeau, Ball, LG Judy, Inuit/FN to fly to Goose for quickie announcement? Recently, Charest/Couillard expressed interest in wanting resolution of the long standing conflict, (bury the hatchet), with NL to end

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    3. Hi Robert,

      Again this morning, the Supreme Court announced the release of another judgement. For that one, they started the process 2 months after CFLCo vs HQ and received all the signatures 7 weeks after they got all from CFLCo - HQ. So again, the CFLCo - HQ decision is hold on purpose, at the request of the parties. The Supreme has been ready to release that judgement for months now.

      Because it is hold on purpose at the request of the parties, there is no way for us to know when it will be released.

      The only thing we can do is to watch the audience, archived and published on the Supreme Court web site, and see how bad it was for CFLCo during the entire audience...

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  15. Joe, is the smiling face of Barry Perry one you could trust?
    Now, notice the Telegram headline of earnings nearly double from 2016 to 2017. Would you not want to jump aboard of that gravy train? But is the gravy thinner than implied?
    Now it says net earnings of 1 billion in 2017, a 47 % increase, so Barry sort of a financial wizard, or a bit of Trumpie fake news? If you read the article further you will see it says adjusted earnings per share also climbed 10 percent to 2.53, but reported as 2.32 due to USA tax reform ( so actually 9.2 % instead of 10 %.
    So , over the last 5 years the size of Fortis has doubled , and this past one year the company net earnings increased 47 %........all rather spectacular, suggesting one jump aboard for the thick Trumpie gravy, and for sure better than Ed Martin gravy promised for Mfs......but what of the modest 9.2 percent gain in shares earnings, when there was 47 percent gain in Fortis net earnings?
    Well , the Canadian Business Journal reports that Fortis's cash flow jumped 46 %.
    So, this implies that Fortis now has many more shares floating around, so that although cash flow and total net earnings are huge, the bottom line for shareholders is not near so much! So 9.2 % and forecast to drop 3 percent for 2018!.
    As the stock had been up t 47.00 and has backed off to about 43.00, things are not as rosy as made out.
    And when you start talking about transmission lines circling the globe 7 times, it sort of sounds like Gil Bennett talking of MF and comparing it to the great pyramids of Egypt.
    So , does the Telegram headline and article mislead? Would Perry mislead?
    When you borrow more than 10 billion to double your size ,and float more shares, your asset base increases but so does your debt, and so if you are a small Fortis share holder, compare your increase with that of Barry, and see why he is smiling, all the way to the bank, and not so concerned about the average Joe. But is he as bad as Ed Martin? Maybe not, but how much different?
    PF

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  16. Manitoba Hydro, who I understand advised against Muskrat, also lost control of its own projects;

    http://calgaryherald.com/commodities/energy/manitoba-to-probe-hydro-projects-following-tragic-cost-overrun/wcm/1840060a-a241-4ac0-9043-7f402c18e8fb

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  17. Joe, seems someone other than you and I are following the River flow and monitoring stations, and likely also reading UG.
    I had mentioned that Grizzle Rapids is a key chart to watch as for inflow to MF reservoir, but that the web site only displayed the water elevation , while the flow volume, the most important data, required gong into that link further to find that flow.
    Low and behold, this morning , both the flow and elevation for Grizzle is now available without further searching.
    Of interest today: the flow at Grizzle is now up 68 percent increase from when it bottomed out, after the 20 % percent reduction at Churchill Fall some days ago, and such that at the CF plant it seems they have made a further reduction this morning. And as the elevation at Mud Lake is still climbing some, this seems prudent at the CF plant, will will not stop the rise at Grizzle as the melt is the main factor there, but will slow the rate of rise at Grizzle.
    The weather still seems favourable to avoid too rapid a melt, and so far they have been holding the MF reservoir at about 23m with minor adjustments, a few inches up and down, so the gates must be opening and closing some to achieve that.
    This coming week should be interesting to watch the monitors, and if i were at Mud lake, I might have my life jacket under the bed, as residents there do, but so far so good and I would not be awake all night, and see what coming days shows. I assume residents there are being kept informed by Nalcor, as Eddie Joyce is no not available to harass Nalcor on behalf of Mud Lake residents ( doubt if he would of course, but who knows?)

    Winston

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    1. Yes Winston, following the charts too, so she what happens over the next 10 days or so, depending on the air temps in that area. Was looking at the chart at English point, where the water level for three years, 16, 17 and 18 have been superimposed on each other for April and May, based on ice jam in the river. It shows the river cresting on May 17 th. For a few days, and 2017 having risen much higher than 2016, due to ice jam. The other interesting shown in the superimposed graphs, is this spring the water level is a half meter on May 5th. Higher than the previous two years. Not sure if that is good or bad. If the water is higher now may be showing water build up due to ice, or may be showing earlier run off. If earlier run off, should be good as there will be less water to come later. But if height is due to slowing due to ice build up, or thicker, then difficult to say. But regardless difficult to predict what the future ice build up might be, and guess the rafting can change rather quickly, depending on amount of moving ice and water flow force. But seems next week to ten days will be the critical time. And I think also depends on amount of water coming out of muskrat gates as opened and closed to keep the water level there at 23 meters, if that is their plan. Thanks. AJ.

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    2. Yes, many variables, so will be interesting to watch. If well planned and controlled, and they have data from past years as a guide to help, their should in theory be little flooding.
      Yet , if I recall, once the plant at MF is operating, it will produce ice some 70 feet thick, for some distance, just downstream from the plant, which does not happen now, and how that would impact and break up , who knows? No talk of that? That is like iceberg size stuff!
      Winston

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  18. To what end will the fossil fuel industry want to go and what of our fisheries and marine environment? Rachel Carson, we need your advice.

    http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/marine-protected-areas-offshore-exploration-oil-gas-1.4647484

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  19. I can hold no longer on my hypothesis: that we may be able to tell in advance if a sociopath is running for politics, or heading up our power company, or CEO of our major banks etc, or your next door neighbour.
    It is well known that many leaders that have sociopathic characteristics that is observed in their methods and ethics, but it is then too late, having gotten to a position of trust and done their damage, with little concern for who suffers.
    So to know in advance would who might be a sociopath, or have too many of these characteristics could be a scientific breakthrough, surely.
    I cannot find the word sociopath in my old Oxford dictionary, which is strange, but did find it spelled as psychopathic, and means a mentallly deranged person. But the Google definition of sociopath says it is a personality type whose behaviour is antisocial, often criminal, and who lacks a sense of moral responsibility or social conscience. A psychopath is said to have no conscience, so a fine difference. Some sociopath characteristics is said to be positive for leadership qualities.
    Now an hypothesis is defined as "a supposition made as a basis for reasoning, without assumption of it's truth, or as starting-point for investigation; or could be defined as groundless assumption, meaning it is only hypothetical".
    So here goes: Part 1.
    First I should say how this idea came to me. It was when Hugh Heffner, the playboy died. A feminist who had worked as a bunny, and no had no use for him, described him in unflattering terms, and mentioned his reptile type smile. And sure enough , the article showed a picture of Hef, and his smile was indeed reptile like. It went straight across. I mean did you ever see a croc smile? That description kind of bounced in my mind now and again, and I began to observe the way people smiled, especially on TV, people of power , like Donald Trump, and others. And I began to observe a pattern.
    So you see where I am going with this? And it may have significance as to why we ended up with the boondoggle, and such idiots as MHAs and political leaders.
    Part 2 to follow
    PF

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    1. Lol, PF you are very observant, and may have indeed more than a hypothesis, you may end up with a proven theory. But anyway, I immediately checked my smile in the mirror, and it is not straight across like trumpies, but curlers upwards at both ends. Thank God. And will stay tuned for part two. You may be on the edge of a brilliant break through. But what do I know, says Joe blow, lol. That was meant to be a smile.

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    2. Hypothesis Part 2
      Just Googled Images Mussollini, then Hitler, and one should click the part that say "more images" to see lots of historic photos. I only came across a couple of either of these with an actual smile, and of course, taking a straight edge rule to my computer screen , did a basic test, and sue enough, confirms that they had their destiny, I suppose even as even as a baby, but we must go on adult photos it seems.
      So Joe, being boosted by this evidence to those two evil creatures, I was about to write part 2, but got side tracked a little by your response. And a natural response, as 2 week ago, sensing value to his hypothesis, I did what you did. I smiled at myself in the mirror, not being one to ever do this before, or spend much time at the mirror. But to my pleasure, I passed the test, and glad to hear you did too.
      Now having viewed dictators, I then went to Google Bill Maher images, who I always enjoyed his big smile whenever on TV. And he passed the test in flying colors, which is not surprising, and adds evidence to the hypothesis, it seems.
      So, I will further explain the matter in Part 3 to follow.
      PF

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    3. Hypothesis Part 3
      Wondering how local big wigs would do on this this, here is my assessment from onlime smiling photos
      Danny Williams: fail
      Ed martin : fail
      Eddie Joyce ; Fail
      Edwin Drove ; Fail
      Geoff stirling : fail
      Stan Marshall, insufficient smiling photos to say, but may fail
      Joe Smallwood Pass( I thought he might fail)
      Bill Rowe ;Pass
      Ed Roberts : doubtful.
      Some fail big time..........

      Here is how I assess;
      Try and find a genuine smile, not just the semi smile of saying cheese for a photo.
      Measure a straight line across the top of the top lip to both sides of the mouth. If the side rises, you pass, if it declines , it is a fail, if it is a straight line , then questionable, and perhaps deserves the benefit of doubt. Some mouths drop down a lot, you might notice. And this applies to women as well, it appears.
      PF

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    4. If you are right PF, and I am rather skeptical, then Rudy Jiuliani fails by a country mile. Cheers, Joe blow.

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    5. Yes , that is Trumps new stupid lawyer I believe, and his mouth turns down big time, and is not to be trusted, so another indicator for the Hypothesis.
      Now Joe, as we walked upright only about a million years ago, advanced from the apes, as evolution teaches, and 75 million years ago, sharks, croc etc has been around, unchanged. Somewhere along that path we are related to the reptiles, and still have a bit of their makeup in our gene pool, which explains why Hef and some others still have that reptile smile, and sociopath like.....I mean would a croc have a qualm about who he ate for lunch? Now you and I and most have a bit of that upturn smile or at least not a downturn on a best effort.
      Now I tried my best smile, and gave it a go to do better for a bigger upturn, but could't budge it one bit further So it seems fool proof, one can't fake to avoid a reptile smile, if it is inherited from way back, it my view. Seriously , think Danny Williams can turn up his smile ? No way I say.
      Now there appears an exception maybe to everything. From the photos of Premier Ball, he is a croc too, when a regular smile, but notice Ball often smiles on one side of his mouth and managed to turn it up. He smiled like this when there is nothing to smile about, even an harassment issue, he can turn up a one sided smile.
      So this hypothesis, may need a little refining to cover someone like Ball. But I think artificial intelligence and computers will get this down pat, and in the future your drivers licence photo will certify one as a possible sociopath or not, and very valuable to keep terrorists out, as well as mega project scan artists.
      But ok to be skeptical.....but you know already there are experts who can evaluate every twitch or raised eyebrow as to their stress level when in public debates etc, but guess they never analyized the reptile smile.
      So how would you classify Cathy Bennett, or Ms Coady?
      And remember, Walmart uses the regular smile on those yellow signs, as do clowns and Ronald Mcdonald , an upturned smile is a universal feature as anti reptile like.
      Nut ignore the bottom lip, as most all turn up, and can be deceptive.
      So keep watching and see what you think after a week or so.
      PF

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  20. The 2007 energy plan put forward by the PC government of that day was predicated upon using revenues from non-renewable resources, mainly oil and gas, to build renewable resources mainly hydro-electric power. The present Liberal government has dubbed Muskrat a boondoggle and talked about non-specific rate mitigation strategies. They have also decided to split the non-renewable oil resources from Nalcor and ordered Nalcor to provide rate mitigation. Are they not undoing the strategy of the previous PC governments and at the same time setting the new Nalcor (without oil revenue)up to fail, thereby ensuring the Muskrat project will fail and become the very boondoggle that they disclosed to the world. Without oil revenues from the equity stakes formerly vested in Nalcor, it has no possibility of revenue to pay for the electricity rate mitigation efforts. Rate mitigation can then only come from taxpayers or the fire sale of assets to private interests or both.

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    1. Annon 13:45, ok if you state that as being a government strategy in 2007, and you have to realize that their projections for oil prices was well above a 100$ a barrel with no end in sight, and super royalties kicking in etc. But that was all based on a fanatisy world, and the expectations that muskrat would not be a boondoggle. Oil prices dropped immediately after scanction, and has become our bread and butter for the past decade, paying for health, education, public services, and servicing our debt, if at all possible. So do you say we should forget about all that, and continue to pour the oil money into muskrat, why the hell should we do that. And I do agree with the seperation of the oil money from Dracula, as they have been skimming the profits of the oil revenues, just to keep muskrat on life support. As for equity steak vested in Hebron via nalcor, how many years do you expect before that begins to kick in to give government or nalcor any return? And how long would we have to pump no-renewable resources into a renewable resource like muskrat, seems the projections are like some 57 years. That 2007 energy plan was quite the plan. Seems it was devised by similar people that said only chess understood compound interest. Thanks, average joe.

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    2. No, perpetuating the government's waste of our tax money is not the answer. We also have to be realistic about the vagary of commodity prices, especially oil, which the previous government was not. However this does not excuse the present government's plan to blame their lack of performance on the previous near-do-wells and ensure the failure of an ill-advised project by the present government's deliberate actions against the project. We need the present government to act on our behalf and not to advance its own agenda as the previous government did. We need the present kettle to clean its own ass even if the pot before it did not. The future government in waiting should also take note.

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    3. How about we start with Nalcor first and make cuts there? One only has to monitor the Job Bank and Career Beacon to see the number of positions advertised and one can then easily see there is room for cuts. And what about those salaries? It is obvious that a large part of the corporate management aren't worth what their salaries are so how about a bit of snip snip?

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    4. Anom @ 20:37

      I would also question the practice of suppliers coming solely from NL. Many of the goods and services could quite possibly be purchased out of province or out of country even if it means lowering the inevitable rise in rates. The practice of NL first should not apply in the new reality we have and the local supply/warehouse industry would suffer but so be it. This is not a normal situation we have on our hands.

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    5. Anom @ 20:37
      You are probably right about the suppliers but because so many of the businesses in St. John's control the political parties via Corporate Donations then there is very little hope of that arrangement with NL first ever changing.

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    6. As I recall the liberal government of Clyde Wells back in the late 1980s and early 1990s tried to sell off NL Hydro assets at fire-sale prices to NF Power as a short term fix for debt and deficit problems of the government. The people of the province got up against such a move and it was fortunately prevented from happening. This guy has a presence in the back rooms of the present government and also the front room of the appointments commission and this could be a problem for us. We don't need the return of failed solutions from the past.

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    7. How could it be a failed solution from the past, as you say, when the people prevented the sale from happening?

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    8. Anom 12:56
      Owning Hydro dams in the past was a good idea when there weren't as many alternatives and there was only three main systems of heating (electric, oil and wood) but now that Wind Turbines, Solar PV, Cogeneration, Heat Pumps and even such things as LED Bulbs (ie conservation) it isn't such a good idea. What has happened is successive governments in three provinces have tried to prop up the construction industry and the unionized jobs that go with it by building hydro dams that are of poor economic viability. In Manitoba I believe there were three dams, Newfoundland there is Muskrat Falls and now in BC the Site C project. None of these projects make economic sense and all have placed an unnecessary burden of ratepayers. Privatizing some of these electrical generation capabilities makes a lot more sense than privatizing hospitals.

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    9. Remember Clyde Lies chant.....
      Anyway, if memory serves Clyde K Wells was once CEO or some high position with Nfld Power, and then later Premier, and so likely was and still a significant Fortis share holder. Maybe someone could comment.
      But as Premier he wanted to sell Nfld Hydro to Nfld power, and people lile Sue Kellamd Dyer, Greg Malone etc instigated a revolt to stop this, and they did.
      I was of the opinion that the back room boys would win the day and as Nflders were too green to burn as they say, and not rise to the occasion. What did I do.....
      I invested 0.5 million in Nfld Power shares, expecting it t rise once the deal was sanctioned.
      Personally I hoped Nflders would block it, and they did.
      So, the deal did not go , and Nfld power shares did not rise, but did not drop either. And I soon lightened up on their shares, so did not lose out.
      I had no contact or involvement with the players in this scheme.
      I see this MF boondoggle as Takeover No2 attempt....first the transmissin lines, then the low cost generation plants, and if MF works at all, then buy at bargin basement price later.
      THis is how the 1 percent crown ends up owning 95 percent of all wealth. And Fortis Barry Perry , at 8 million a year benefits as CEO is anxious to help mitigate the rates for the poor.
      Maybe so, if Fortis hands every Nflder some free shares in Fortis......what is the chance of that!
      AG

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    10. Yes AG, this might happen, takeover No2 attempt, and become a reality. But the real question is why?? and I think anon: 14:47 answered the question very well, before you posed it. So the real mistake may not be now or in selling, but when you are over a barrel, with both hands and feet tied, there is not a hell of a lot you can do, except sell, at at whatever the pice may be, you have no control. So the sell, or mistake was really made ten years ago, in getting in lock stock and barrel over our heads and leaving no escape route for ourselves. We are at the mercy of our finianciers and lenders, so they might dictate what we have to do, so that we don't all starve in the cold and dark. Yes, and guys like perry will be come richer at our expense, so who do we blame?? Is it Clyde lied??? The people won that one. He had the power and position to sell it, but eventually listened to the people. Is that not what democracy is all about. Did DW and CD give in to the people that were against muskrat from the beginning. No. They lied and in addition failed to inform the people of the real consequences of a hydro project that we did not need, would make no money, and was not the least cost option. So we need to get some things in prospective and factual, otherwise people get so confused and ill informed over time, that we will be blaming Clyde for building muskrat and Peckford for bringing us into the confederation, and Grimes for destroying the fishery. (don't think he was ever fisheries minister and was just an interim premier) But may be a good time to buy stocks in light and power and fortis. Not for me, as I don't have than kind of $'s kicking around. Just my rant, says Joe blow.

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    11. Joe, agree Clyde did not build Muskrat, but notice neither Stan Marshall nor Clyde Wells did or said anything to expose the obvious boondoggle, and so fortis share holders can sit and wait to pick up assets for a song. And Wells is well connected it seems.
      Did not Clyde say of Sprung `you can grow cucumbers at the North Pole, but is it economic`....and the same logic goes for Muskrat, and Wells is a very rational guy, so why his silence through out this fiasco, could he be a croc as PF describes...I need to check his smiling photos maybe.
      AG

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    12. Hi Joe, I can opine that Clyde L Wells appears to be a serious croc, as is Brian Peckford, Brian Tobin, Judy Foote, Kathy Dunderdale, bu maybe not John Crosbie, but need to view more of John to say for sure.
      Not surprising most in these positions are crocs, goes with the territory.
      If viewing Wells see the carton with Mullrooney, and Wells mouth down big time, so the carton guy must have noticed this feature.
      And Gina Haspel , the female CIA who approves of witnessed water boarding torture a serious croc.
      Serious science it appears.
      PF

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    13. Lol, AG, I think it is really a stretch to blame CW or SM for getting muskrat going and scancioned. I think a lot more blame goes to Harper, as without his approval of the Loan guarantee, we never would get the 8$ billion that the Feds approved. I think Harper signed it as a revenge rather than to assist us, after the ABC etc. Not my job to try and defend, those guys, lol, I am just a Joe blow, and they don't mean anything to me, but I like to call a spade a spade. Sure wells was the Chief Justice, wasn't he when the term paper was signed in 2007, was it. And later went with C&P law. What does any of that have to do with muskrat. Think Clyde has been rather quiet on the public scene since he left politics. As for Stan the man, well yes always in hydro, but said at the time as head of fortis, wouldn't touch muskrat with a 10 foot pole. But I have said before, it would have been nice if as a concerned citizen, should have spoken out stronger against muskrat. But you know, and I know, that come hell or high water, after the term paper was signed, there was no stopping muskrat. The govt. of the day had a Hugh majority, created the monster, nalcor to do its work, and that was it. "fait accomplie", just needed the backing from the Feds for the loan. But anyway
      , a great conspiracy theory, CW and SM created muskrat so they could get it later, lol, me and Dannie will go along with that one. Must check with Cathy et al.....omg hope UG kicks me of his blog..far out...way far out...as the guy said..all in a day's work says Joe blow....

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    14. Joe, you are right that CW and SM did not create Muskrat, so you get me wrong.
      You are right that SM could have done much more to expose the MF flaws, he has a lot of expertise and experience, and made one statement against it, while UG , Vardy etc were continuously outspoken against it. And if the term sheet was 2007 and sanctioned in 2012, that is 5 years.....how long did it take for residents to turn the tide when Clyde lied, and also wanted to sell off Nfld Hydro.
      And Clyde likely did right to stay quiet while he was a judge, but not a word since against MF! Lots to say about Joey blunders, and walk across the floor, and lots to say on the miniboondoggle, Peckfords pickle factory, but not a word on what can bankrupt the province, but not hurt Fortis! A patriot for sure.
      To do nothing or stay silent is to condone it, Joe. You are not silent, you have plenty to say, but these wheeler dealers, stand to rake in the profits just by their silence. Shareholders first see, and Clyde would say, the law dictates that, corporation benefits first, and duty to shareholders.
      Harper, I guess he had no love for DW or Nflders, but that he approved the loan not to injure Nfld, as much as to help NS. Think Heracles might agree with that. To blame Harper, or NS, is like to blame Quebec and not look at the local scene.
      Our other guy from Quebec asked about the class system here, and no one really answered him on that.
      These back room boys and girls are the present upper class, and pulling the strings,sometimes by their silence, and Clyde in charge of appointments, lol.
      And by the way, this thing by SM that they, Fortis, would never do a project without having at least 51 percent...that is now gone as a policy.Is Perry more clever than SM!
      AG

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    15. Read UG this morning, not sure I follow what he is saying so will continue here. Guess my point is quite simple, let's stick with the facts, not try and re write history to the point of being ridiculous otherwise we may accuse Noah of being in the garden of Eaden, and Adam built the arc, and Julius Caesar was the first man to walk on the moon, and John A. Macdinald discovered Newfoundland, and, and will just add, was, was it that Santa Clause was swallowed by a whale??? Now put that in your pipe and smoke it. Says uncle joe, or ask Rudy, trumpies buddy, he'll set it all strait.....until more fake news comes along....omg...what are we coming too......

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  21. Anyone want to join a swarm on our future with MF?

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    1. Swarm of what? Old men and women with canes? Because in ten years that's all that will be left here.

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    2. Google swarm social action and let’s get started!

      Swarms can change the world.

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    3. A swarm isn't going to fix anything. If you think we are going to get away without paying for this Boondoggle of a legacy project then you have your head in the sand.
      Let's say we stop paying for it? Who is going to pay off the bond holders for the next 50 years? And if we need emergency cash where is it going to come from? Ottawa? Forget it. The other provinces will kindly tell you where to go.
      Whether you like it or not we will be paying for this fiasco one way or another. Defaulting on loans the province is responsible for will only bring on another 1932 with even more disastrous results. We don't even have the fishery to return to when times are tough-that's gone forever.

      Might as well tell you you have been had and you best open up your wallet. If you live in NL get prepared for a lower standard of living.

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  22. Just read a piece about the UCP convention in Alberta. Boy Jason Kennedy must be taking speaking lessons from Danny Williams only instead of Quebec and Ottawa he is blaming David Suzuki and Tides Canada in which he said he wants to go to court to end their charitable status because he doesn't like the message they are delivering about the mess the Alt-right left Alberta in and its contribution to Climate Change. Sad state of affairs the politics are in Alberta. Almost as bad as in Newfoundland. Like the fishery here in Newfoundland, Nature will have the last say in how the plant evolves-not Jason Kennedy

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    1. Anom @ 07:29

      It is funny how the right wing conservatives don't want any left leaning ideas but yet they will take a knee for their mouthful of corporate money.

      Here is a quote from a story on the CBC website about the UPC convention:

      "But Kenney was rewarded with his biggest cheers of the night for stating the NDP was "re-writing the curriculum in secret" and engaging in social engineering in the classroom.

      "If the NDP tries to smuggle more of their politics into the classroom through their curriculum, we will put that curriculum through the shredder," he said."

      This is in reference to sex education classes which teach what was always present and not the fantasy world that Jason kenney Likes in.

      It is funny how based on that statement Jason kennedy never mentioned revoking the Catholic Church's charitable status for its teachings in Catholic schools.

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    2. Don't you think that before Kinney moves to destroy the Green movement, he might find common ground with Weaver on pipeline Eagle Spirit?

      https://www.behance.net/gallery/64713541/GREEN-PARTY-OPENS-DOOR-TO-PIPELINE

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