Thursday, 4 July 2019

STAN MARSHALL’S MUSKRAT BARGAIN: CAVEAT EMPTOR!

Nalcor CEO Stan Marshall gave testimony this week at the Muskrat Falls Inquiry.  During his examination he referred to the need to see the “big picture” as to the economics of Muskrat Falls. He said that this can best be done by explaining the cost of Muskrat Falls in cents per Kilowatt Hour, which makes it easier to understand than by using large numbers in the millions and billions.

His theme was that the project is not really all bad, the costs not unreasonable. When you look closely a different picture emerges from the one Stan has presented. The “big picture” is not nearly as rosy. Was his presentation an attempt to explain away the “boondoggle” or to rationalize it? 


Muskrat Falls a Bargain!
In his February 15, 2018 presentation at Memorial University he said that the cost of generation at Muskrat Falls was a “bargain” at 7 cents per KWh for 2021. He said the problem was that transmission costs need to be added to calculate the 17.42 cents/KWh unit cost of Muskrat Falls. The transmission cost includes both the cost of the Labrador Island Link (LIL) and the cost of the transmission line from Churchill Falls to Muskrat Falls, known as Labrador Transmission Assets (LTA).  He blamed the transmission cost for the overall high unit energy cost, rather than generation. The data Marshall cited purport to show generation cost at a low 7 cents/KWh compared with 10.42 cents/KWh for transmission.
Stan Marshall, CEO Nalcor
According to Stan Marshall it is the high transmission costs which make the economics of the project questionable. These costs are shown in Marshall’s pie chart below to be 10.42 cents per KWh for transmission, including 8.98 cents for LIL and 1.44 cents for the LTA. This pie chart indeed shows that transmission costs exceed generation cost, 10.42 cents compared with 7.00 cents for a total of 17.42 cents/KWh. Does this tell the full story? How clear is the big picture? Let the buyer beware!


The Metrics
The funny thing is that these numbers do not compare with Nalcor’s construction numbers, which are shown in the bar chart below. There is a disconnection.  These numbers describe the direct construction costs and the financing costs of the project and its components. The direct construction costs for MF far exceed those of the LIL and the LTA combined, $5.5 billion compared with $4.8 billion.

So the mystery is why these numbers show a different picture than the pie chart with the cents per KWh.  When we begin to unravel this mystery we find not only that the generation costs per KWh exceed the transmission costs but also that the 17.42 cents per KWh for Muskrat Falls generation (MF) is too low. We also discover that the blended cost must be adjusted upward in order to cover all project costs including the cost of equity capital.


Readers of this esteemed blog will remember previous posts describing the two methodologies used for the project including Muskrat: The Biggest Gamble of All and Finance Department Left Out of Muskrat Risk Assessments. The “cost of service” approach expenses all costs annually over a period of years, including the cost of equity capital. The “escalating supply price” approach defers return on equity into the future.  The payback period for the project is more than 50 years.

Stan Marshall is quite right when he describes the cost recovery system for the LIL as the “public utility” model which applies to a regulated utility (like Newfoundland Power), while the other is a “non-regulated” approach. He explained that Emera wanted a defined return on its investment in the LIL with regular annual payment of dividends. The problem is that the two metrics cannot be combined to achieve meaningful results. They must be placed on a common standard if they are to be compared. We need make it no more complex than that.

A Common Metric
The differences in the annual costs used to calculate power rates relate to how the return on the equity invested by the province is treated by Nalcor. The regulated approach is used for the LIL while the non-regulated approach is used for generation (Muskrat Falls power plant) and for LTA.

Two alternative approaches exist to find a common standard. One would be to put the LIL on a non-regulated standard. The second would be to place the generation and transmission on a regulated standard. We have chosen the latter in order to ensure that the return on equity is not ignored. It is a real cost and to ignore the cost of capital borrowed by the province would be to understate the actual cost. There is yet again another alternative, similar to the regulated approach, which would reduce the rate of return on provincial equity to reflect the true cost of borrowed money to the province. For simplicity we have avoided this line of inquiry in order to make our numbers as comparable to Marshall’s numbers as possible.

What we have done is to take the regulated LIL return on equity numbers as the standard and to scale the other numbers to place them on the regulated standard. To do this we focus on the LIL return on equity numbers which are based on a return of 8.5% for LIL shareholders, both Emera Energy and the government of Newfoundland and Labrador (GNL). The return on equity set in the Power Purchase Agreement between Muskrat Falls Corporation and NL Hydro is 8.4%.

We have taken the LIL return on equity calculated by Nalcor for 2021 and adjusted it in two steps to calculate the ROE numbers for MF and LTA. For MF the ROE has been adjusted upward to reflect the higher direct construction costs of MF compared with LIL. The first step is simply to scale the dividend numbers for MF + LTA, the ROE, in relation to those for the LIL.  The loan guarantee requires a higher proportion of equity in MF and LTA than in LIL so the ROE has also been adjusted upward by 40% to reflect a minimum equity ratio of 35% compared with 25% for the LIL. This is the second step. The same approach has been followed with the LTA. The 2021 revenue requirements used in these calculations are shown in the Appendix. The total of the 2021 revenue requirements shown in the Appendix is $808 million and when divided by 4641 GWh we get 17.42 cents/KWh the number used by Mr. Marshall. These calculations then give us the new equity values to be inserted for each of MF and LTA in the table show in the Appendix. 

The Results
The numbers we get are as follows:

LIL cost per KWh: 8.98 cents (unchanged)

LTA cost per KWh: 2.46 cents (compared with 1.44 cents)

MF cost per KWh: 12.78 cents (compared with 7 cents)

Transmission Costs: 11.44 cents (compared with 10.42 cents)

Cost of Muskrat Falls power 24.22 cents (compared with 17.42 cents)

Blended cost of Muskrat Falls per unit of total energy sales: 16.2 cents (compared with 11.66 cents)

Blended cost of power: 27.4 cents (compared with 22.89 cents, as explained below)

Revenue requirements for Muskrat Falls
The Nalcor presentation of February 15, 2018 is based on an output of 4,641 GWh at Soldier’s Pond, net of line losses. Multiplying this by 17.42 cents/KWh gives us $808 million as the revenue required to pay for Muskrat Falls in 2021. If we use the 24.22 cents and multiply it by the net output of 4,641 GWh we get a much higher number for the revenue requirement to be recovered in rates, namely $1,124 million compared with $808 million using 17.42 cents/KWh.

The Nalcor presentation includes the following table:
Revenue requirements for full system
This table enables us to calculate the annual costs of the existing power system to which the cost of Muskrat Falls must be added. The numbers in the table and chart above are the costs when blended over the projected sales volume of about 7 billion KWh. We have NL Hydro costs other than those related to Muskrat Falls (generation, transmission and distribution) of 6.80 cents per KWh and Newfoundland Power (generation and distribution) cost of 4.43 cents per KWh. This results in a system cost of $778 million, excluding Muskrat Falls. 

If we add this to the $1,124 million we get $1.9 billion as the total cost of the electrical power system in 2021. When we divide this by the 6.93 billion KWh projected in the load for 2021 we get a blended system cost of 27.4 cents per KWh instead of the 22.89 cents in the Nalcor presentation. So the result is to increase the unit cost of Muskrat Falls power but also to raise the overall blended system cost.

When we divide the adjusted revenue requirement for Muskrat Falls by the 6.93 billion KWh projected the result is a cost per blended unit of 16.2 cents KW/h compared with the 11.66 cents KWh in the table above.

The chart and table below show that only 1324 GWh of Muskrat Falls power will be used in 2021. Using the revised cost per KWh of 24.22 cents and the revenue requirements of $1,124 million we find that the cost per KWh is 84.9 cents. The 24.22 cents spreads the cost over all units of output, namely the net plant output of 4,641 GWh, while the 84.9 cents spreads the cost over only the amount of power we actually use. 


This illustrates that while Muskrat Falls saves fuel costs it adds large financing costs because of the huge amount of capital involved. The savings in fuel costs are far outweighed by the incremental capital cost. The problem with Muskrat Falls is that ratepayers have to bear the full cost even though they are using only 28% of the power. Holyrood with its fuel cost of 15 cents per KWh would have been a much cheaper option but not necessarily the best.

Without making these adjustments Stan Marshall is ignoring the impact on project costs of the large equity return on generations assets (MF + LTA), which is left out of costs in 2021, the first full year of Muskrat power. Stan's 7 c/kwh is simply not a real number without consideration of return on equity.  The deferred return on equity is an IOU of almost 5 cents/KWh and is a real cost that is going to be collected later in the 50 year payback period, compounded at 8.4%, making the future cost much higher.  Either way, the cost of generation is far from a bargain.

The notion that Muskrat Falls is a bargain cannot be defended. When disparate metrics are combined the result is nonsense. When we place both the regulated and non-regulated costs on a consistent basis we get totally different results. Generation costs exceed the cost of transmission and the overall costs far exceed the cost of alternatives.

Conclusion
What has to be kept in mind here and in the discussion of rate mitigation is that the magnitude of the cost is so high that it is likely impossible to recover all costs through rates. The blended costs of 27.4 cents per KWh cannot be recovered in rates, nor could the 22.89 cents. Marshall has failed to demonstrate how the project can be promoted as a bargain or indeed as comparable in cost with other projects across Canada, without ensuring that the cost recovery methodology is consistent among projects. Caveat emptor, let the buyer beware! 

The “non-regulated” model of cost recovery chosen by Nalcor was intended to avoid rate shock by keeping rates lower in the early years than they would otherwise have been. It was this model that produced blended rates of 22.89 cents/KWh instead of 27.4 cents/KWh. So it builds in about 5 cents of rate mitigation. However the reality is that the cost of provincial equity is a cost the taxpayer cannot avoid. The province can write off the ROE but that does not relieve the Treasury of the cost of paying interest on the debt it incurred to make its obligatory equity commitment.

The use of the hybrid cost recovery was an attempt at rate mitigation. The use of such complex arrangements should not blind us to the financial impact of the project. It is an attempt to defer costs into the future. We have to be very wary about rate mitigation which takes money away from other programs today or else defers costs and adds them to the legacy of costs we are bequeathing to future generations.

As we can see here the combination of different metrics can seriously mislead us in the interpretation of the problem we are facing, minimizing the real cost of Muskrat Falls and its impact. We are depending on the Muskrat Falls Inquiry and on the Public Utilities Board to present the unvarnished truth along with consistent metrics for measuring the problem and assessing potential solutions.

David Vardy

Appendix
The data used to calculate the 2021 revenue requirements using the “regulated” approach come from the response to my ATIPPA request to Nalcor PB-651-2017 below. We have chosen to use these data rather than the later revenue requirements contained in PB-954-2018 because these are the data used in Stan Marshall’s February 15, 2018 presentation at Memorial.

121 comments:

  1. This is a good analysis from Dave. Is Stan intentionally deceitful, or is he rather simple, using rules-of-thumb to convince himself of "alternate truths".

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  2. People "in the know", with the power to make decisions and sign off on it, were responsible, not "all Newfoundlanders and Labradorians" - so government and Nalcor and Danny Williams are responsible. Anyone with basic math should be able to calculate that the final cost (no matter how you divvy up the pie/bar chart) was too high for consumers. The people of our province deserved better.

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  3. You can use whatever analysis or metrics you wish, but the bottom line is that we are going to be hit with enormous electrical bills in the very near future that will be crippling to every man woman and child in this province for years to come. And after all of the analysis, we still have a restraint-blinded Provincial Government making multi million dollar expenditures as if they really believe that neither the ratepayers or taxpayers will have to suck up this cost. And you wonder why people are moving out of province?????

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  4. David, thank you for the unvarnished truth!

    ". We are depending on the Muskrat Falls Inquiry and on the Public Utilities Board to present the unvarnished truth along with consistent metrics for measuring the problem and assessing potential solutions". We know David that with his rubber chicken LeBlank is unlikely to find or give us the unvarnished truth.

    That said I know of no one that can do the analysis you have just done (save for bullshit from PENGzero).

    This sad truth prior to the problems with GE software and Nalcor softheadedness about to unfold (god save us from the spur) what on earth will you and others do about it to inform of the impending reality check?

    What action will you now take?

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  5. Ball applies the principle (re EY's problems getting info from Nalcor) that he would often impress on Nalcor that "Look, if you're right, then co-operate with EY and it will only prove you right".

    Then why isn't he applying the same principle re the North Spur and have an independent expert panel 'prove Nalcor right'?

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  6. All boondoggles are fraught with inexactness, glossing over items of importance and downright lieing, intentional or not. Even David can't pin anything down as the ground on which the project stands is shaky and slippery (not necessarily only the North Spur mind you).

    How can the average Newfoundlander expect to understand anything except his light bill will double.

    Will the cost to Newfoundland Power be added to by Newfoundland Power as well, is there a markup?

    Obviously we cannot stand it and we, the public ratepayers, need to do something besides whinge and point fingers. Again I call for ideas to ameliorate this curse we now find ourselves suffering.

    Not one politician has any idea of what to do; Stan has no ideas, Ed Martin, his Cheshire cat grin intact throughout, claims no responsibility. The specter of Dan E Williams lurks behind every mention of Muskrat Falls. Emera owns everything else it seems.

    Many of us can't leave.

    What are we going to do?

    We had a chance to elect people who might have been able to wrestle something productive to the ground and blew it, not that any of them, including the socialists, had any idea of what to do.


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    1. Some of us, like Maurice and yours truly, have been warning of the impending rate shock for an unneeded project. It is a vanity project by your Napoleon. We were ignored or in my case sued by the emperor to ensure that MF continued on unhindered.

      Cape Breton is a nice place that will take advantage of cheap MF power. Come join us for the benefit.

      Only now is the reality being generally understood. Why were our repeated warnings ignored? Maurice kept a running account on his site.

      Delete
    2. I also explained, many times, what I thought this rate shock would do (Here, for example: 2 April 2018 at 19:01 comment on this blog posting):

      http://unclegnarley.blogspot.com/2018/04/paying-twice-can-muskrat-get-any-worse.html

      Have a look at the replies to my comment, Bruno. Then consider the number of times you yourself have also accused me, and indeed numerous others, of trolling and/or gaslighting and/or worse. Now consider the following possibility: could your eagerness to systematically attack me (and many others) instead of highlighting points wherein we are in agreement possibly have something to do with the fact that readers of this blog did not pay attention to those points we both agree on?

      More broadly, do you, Bruno, or indeed any of you thin-skinned Newfoundland "patriots" genuinely, really want to understand why Newfoundland is in such a deep mess? I have a suggestion. Really. Start by looking into a mirror.

      Delete
    3. Etienne, I was surprised at Bruno's complimentary remarks about Dave Vardy's good analysis. Not unusual for Vardy analysis, but unusual for Bruno, and good to see it. A rare event.
      Indeed, I find that if I disagree some with Bruno,which I do, he takes offence and attacks rather than acknowledge the points of agreement. Sometimes I reply and get excessive in my statements, sometimes in fun. But I much rather deal with facts and analysis, and Vardy exposes many of the deceitful economic and accounting tricks that were used. So too there were many engineering deceitful tricks.
      Heracles disappeared altogether, Ex Military posts occasional, no love fest happening, and little respect. And too few Nflders engaged here, given the scale of this blunder.
      Cheers Etienne.
      Winston

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    4. Winston, there are NL'ers here
      We read and weep. If we suggest that a look-in-the-ole-mirror is needed, then we are denounced as CFA's. Stan Marshall cut through the bullshit, and the warts of this project, and indeed the whole province, were revealed. As he said, we live in a culture where the merchant princes/world-class lawyers/Nalcor boffins/politicians/ are never questioned. We are sheep and, boys oh boys, are we gonna get sheared.

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    5. zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

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    6. WINSTON YOU LOVE THE TROLLS! Bring them all back to titillate you.

      Vardy provides good analysis here that no one else has done. I always call them like I see them Winston.

      You and your troll buddy provide nothing of value but your titillation of each other.

      Delete
    7. Trip Trap, Trip Trap, Trip Tack
      Greg Malone/Bruno is back

      Delete
    8. Anon @ 23:23
      Yes, likely many Nflders read UG and maybe few older ones unable to type and comment. I was amazed at younger people having this skill, which once only typists had. I have gradually picked it up, since this blog started, and make fewer mistakes now, so this learned skill is a benefit from my ramblings, some boring , some may inform.
      Yes, there is much to read and weep about, as we will be sheared like sheep. Ball said oil income will be the main mitigation factor. So a vicious cycle:past non renewable oil wealth was to be used for sustainable green power and revenue,but now we must have continued oil production( at a time of climate change emergency) to keep MFs going and the province solvent.
      Lots to weep about, and also few capelin.

      Bruno @ 23:56
      Who's afraid of a troll? Trust but verify.
      Consider PENG2, I challenge him, a troll or not, as I do you.
      He is your and my friend on saying the North Spur is not safe, though suggesting silt issues not quick clay, so 2 instability issues maybe.
      He agrees with you and I that CDM is important and was overlooked, so too for reasonable wind and island hydro. Our Yoda agrees with all of that except just one component of HPs:demand reduction.
      So on these issues, 80 % agreement with Stan, 90% with PENG2, so how can you not give credit where credit is due? And he blames Danny Williams.....you should love him. But he disagrees some with you and I, so what?
      Perhaps PENG2 can clarify his concern with silt, which is finer than sand but less fine than clay, which can liquify? I get his argument on the Churchill River, ever changing deposits of silt.......but what of the Spur instability?
      Winston

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    9. Are you one of Etienne's thin-skinned Newfoundland "patriots" Winston? You can play with your trolls that insult and demean you.

      Some folks enjoy abuse. Are you one Winston?

      Delete
    10. Tor. your light bill wont double, but your tax bill might triple. The real victim here is anyone trying to make a honest living on this god forsaken rock. GovNL will take every loose copper you have and put it in a big dark sink hole (MF mortgage payment).

      Delete
    11. And may i add..."Beware Budget 2020". Every day the monster gets closer.

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    12. Now that the election is over the cost will finally get an "update" from 12.7 to 14 and climbing! Whoops!

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  7. On the spur Ball bristled at the thought of Nalcor "influencing" scientific analysis of the spur. Assessed it enough, multiple firms reviewed the science. MHI humiliated by changed reports. Does not inspire confidence in Nalcor!

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  8. In 1978 (when the large landslide occurred that cut the narrow crest of the Spur in half), the upstream/downstream water level difference would have been about 14 metres (17 minus 3 metre elevations).

    When the reservoir gets to a maximum flood level of 45 metres, the water elevation difference between the upstream and the closest downstream area at the middle Kettle Lake is 17 metres (45 vs. 28 metres).

    And not only is that greater than the difference (14 metres) at where and when the 1978 slide occurred, but the horizontal distance from upstream to the middle Kettle Lake is about the same or even a little less than the horizontal distance between upstream and the downstream part of the Spur where the 1978 slide occurred.

    And Nalcor's updated 2013 geotech invesigations show that there is a clay layer sloping directly from the upstream 45 metre mark to the middle Kettle Lake 28 metre mark, and that would be just NW of and just outside Nalcor's NS stabilization works.

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    Replies
    1. I think Kettle Lakes has been mentioned once at the Inquiry. And that they considered having monitoring stations there, but said it was not readily accessible in the winter, so never bothered.
      I recall your diagram/map warning of a by pass failure possible around the North Spur via Kettle Lakes, and this chart should be part of the record of this Inquiry, if Nalcor has not produced something similar. Suggest you indicate where your diagram can be found on your blog. This may be as significant or more so as to risk than the North Spur.
      Winston Adams
      Winston

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  9. Those who worked hard to reduce the Liberal Majority, (by 2 votes yet), should take some comfort that the sitting premier, (with a cheshire grin), cannot use arbitrary power on any serious public issues, for the foreseeable future. The next two or three years will present its own crisis management opportunities. Will the premier at least invite M. Legault, and Indigenous Leaders to the Grande Riviere, for one last opportunity to "share the lands", and potential benefits of detente?

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  10. Bullshit Ball avoids answering questions on the North Spur or wet capping. The buck stops where? With the Premier? No, just pass the ball, what a slime ball he is.

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    1. Strategic : no wet capping, so dangle 15 million or so to discourage any last minute summer protest in respect of methylmercury or dam failure risk. Protests endorsed by leadership locally would violate legal agreements and make them responsible financially, so that won't happen, so sweeten the pot for this summer to get the flooding underway soon, come hell and high water.
      PF

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  11. I think Ed Martin’s lawyer, Harold Smith had his very own “aha” moment at the Inquiry today.

    Smith was taking great lengths to attempt to explain how Ed Martin was already having “discussions/negotiations” with Astaldi to try and solve their contract issues.

    Smith finally got to his key point of why did Stan Marshall not have a written mandate to negotiate with Astaldi yet, Ed Martin was going to have EY looking over his shoulder should he be allowed to continue “negotiations” with the Astaldi.

    The look on Smith’s face when Dwight Ball said why not, Stan Marshall had experience and he knew what he was doing!

    PRICELESS!

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  12. Ball comes across as a decent fellow. In office, he did make a somewhat positive difference in the outcome of the Boondoggle, and for that he deserves some gratitude. He furthered the setting up of the Inquiry after all. He rejected the bad advice, (PENG2 and others), to defer the forensics, EY study, etc. until the Commissioning. The so called added cost to ferret out what went wrong far outweighs the continuance of obfuscation, lies, fraud, cheating, gaming, and distrust in our administration. Now there is further important Work ahead. How about a Rational discourse on Energy Planning, a New Policy, and some measure of Sustainable Development. Be a Legacy Leader, M. Ball!

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  13. Maurice it would appear Stan and PENGzero are singing from the same songbook! It was our fault! Imagine that.

    "“We’re all to blame,” he said.

    He was asked about the comment on Wednesday, by consumer advocate lawyer Chris Peddigrew.

    He said the public doesn’t always challenge the government enough.

    "To a certain degree we all bear some responsibility," he said."


    So we did not challenge the government enough! Who knew?

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    1. https://www.thetelegram.com/news/local/nalcor-ceo-says-muskrat-falls-project-couldnt-have-been-halted-in-2016-329529/

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    2. Bruno/Greg Malone, aside from the fact that you reside in NS, the only beneficiary of this clusterfuck, you can't have it both ways. Either: 1) the NL population is complicit in the boondoggle, even if only because of their inherent, almost genetic, aversion to speaking truth to power, or 2) the evil capitalists of Circular Road, that you and Greg are so fond of, pulled the wool over their servile eyes. Which side are you on, Bruno?

      Delete
    3. I warned of this impending debacle while anon servile fans of the emperor like you were xenophobic deniers.

      I am not afraid to append my name to my ideas.

      Delete
    4. Bruno your ideas are so shallow, that you have nothing left to lose by attaching your name.

      Delete
  14. Should we trust the Yoda, Stan, as he testified, that no oversight of Nalcor is required, that Nalcor under his competent leadership, and his Board, is all that is needed.
    Readers can google "Muskrat Falls Exhibit P04014, as displayed today by the Grand River counsel, as to the Oversight Committee report 2016, when Stan was in charge.
    The Independent Engineer was site visiting and Nalcor seems to avoid, I suggest, their experts meeting with him to address questions on the cofferdam leak, it's root cause, and fixes, and also the cutoff wall with some panels not keyed into the bottom layer, just sitting on it, and not following standard best practise of mapping quick clay on a real time basis, but into filed books to do it later. How sloppy can you get?
    Ball to day admits he has never seen this OS committee report, and would review it soon, but also says it supports his view that OS committees have value. If so, then the Yoda is wrong, suggesting they have no value.
    In the end the IE says Nalcor must take responsibility for the North Spur etc. but how can anyone have confidence in Nalcor , whether under Ed Martin or Stan Marshall.
    And recall, field note books are made of paper, and may be deemed "transient" as lawyer Ralph has stated with govn official note books, when gone missing , and considered by him to be destroyable.
    Seems even the IE only pushes so far, and lets Nalcor have their way,what they consider acceptable, not best practise, nor standard practise. These events when Gilbert was in control of that site.
    And the Inquiry co-counsel are not bringing this to light , but the Riverkeeper group......and at this late date, .....Leblanc is not shocked at these reports at this late stage, and Ball just saying he will look at it. What a joke, after citing how professional all these guys are, 30 reports over decades saying all is fine. In reality , since the 1960s, reports stated the North Spur was always a very serious engineering challenge, and a site much inferior to Gull Island. Bernander said that if in Sweden, they wound never use this as a dam for a power plant.
    Winston Adams

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  15. THE RULE OF THUMB:
    Perhaps 50 years ago I first heard of it, perhaps in engineering classes. It means a rough but quick measure, better than P50, perhaps say P 65. The Rule of Thumb is not good enough to sanction on, certainly not.
    For tailors, they estimate the male thumb is 1 inch wide, so they can do a fairly good rough measurement with the thumb. Since the Yoda's statement, I measured my thumbs width. My right is 15/16 inch, so 0.9375 inch, say 0.94, so it is off by just 6 %. But if measuring 8 ft , that is about 6 inch error. My left thumb, with old age , has a little distortion, and measures exactly 1 inch. We were never taught to trust the thumb over the slide rule. Some equipment,like rotating synchronous condensers a few microns off can be a big problem. And recall the long term forecast of just 0.8 % per year, a small change means financial ruin for revenue.
    The Inquiry, with a female counsel, was no place to champion the Rule of Thumb. No wise Yoda would do it, but Trump might.
    It's long been stated that English common law endorsed the Rule of Thumb as the thickness of a stick or rod that was permitted for a man to legally beat his wife. Up to one inch I now learn, and so advised my spouse. It has been debated whether it is the husbands thumb or the judge's thumb from the 1700s. Certainly there are a few cases in the USA where judges reference this standard as permissable for correcting the wife's bad behaviour. The last being in the 1870s. Under Trump appointed judges, the USA might see it reinstated.
    For the most part we have seen witnesses at this Inquiry use the Rule of the Middle Finger, as they say they did nothing wrong, and would do the same all over again: Stratton, Ed Martin and others are Middle finger chaps.
    Then there is the Rule of Pinkie. The Pinkie is the little finger that for engineers, they proudly wear the iron ring. This has different meaning for different folk, as to risk taking. For some, protection of the environment and the public is important, and accuracy and low risk is essential.
    Start with the Rule of Thumb maybe, as Stan says, but follow that with the Rule of of Pinkie, is best practise. For CDM and cold climate heatpumps for grid peak reduction, Stan gives the Rule of the Middle Finger. I fear he is a fake Yoda. He must be exposed. What was it Rick Mercer said about Charles Lynch?
    Winston Adams

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  16. The number that seems to be constant and consistent by all is the cost of transmission to the island, It appears to be between 10.5 and 11.5 per kWh. If that had been the focus a decade ago, the transmission cost ! ! ! That should have been a number that could have been derived with adequate certainty by comparisons else where. It would should have been easy to determine that number by comparisons at other places in Canada. Northern Quebec, Northern Ontario, Manitoba, BC and northern Newfoundland. If this number were known then , a relative unknown number like developing the power dam, the north spur, water rights, dome requirements, and northern weather was less certain. But if you take the 11 cents for transmission , the cost we currently pay and for the past decade or so, and then add a rough estimate of the cost of building the power house, dam etc. then the people might have had a better idea of the total cost, if you wanted to bring the voting public in the equation in having any idea of the cost to the rate payer. If they had told the voting public the cost of transmission alone equals our current rates the add the cost of building muskrat and we could have had a better understanding of what we would be paying. Then add the cost of interest to the total cost and bingo the voting public might have had some idea of the total boondoggle and would have balked. The buyer would have been more aware then says Joe blow.

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  17. Is that fucker Ed Martin still living in NL?

    If so, he should be arrested.

    https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/muskrat-dwight-martin-1.5200322

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    Replies
    1. I was wondering the same. I figured his ill gotten golden parachute was intended to land him safely in the Cayman Islands.

      That link has a photo of the turbine. Look at the reflections on the turbine blades. This thing looks crudely ground to me. I would have expected that everything would be ground to very tight tolerances and polished like a submarine propeller.

      Delete
    2. The turbine blades looked milled to me. This can get surfaces to one ten thousandth or more.

      Any advice from the "iron ring" crowd?

      Delete
  18. Wish that fuckin wa and his joe blow sidekick would stop loading this blog up with their incessant volumes of inane bullshit.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Don't forget the chief master baster, Bruno/Greg Malone/Onan

      Delete
    2. Is John Smith back?

      Delete
    3. Hi anon: Insane Bullshitter@23:13 keep on wishing, it will get you nowhere besides your one liners that equates to your one brain cell kicking in at irregular intervals and showing your real contribution, not only to this blog, but probably to your total contribution to society as a whole says Joe blow.

      Delete
    4. He said "inane" not "insane". Inane is defined as "lacking significance, meaning, or point", that is surely what your comments are.

      Delete
    5. Which ever shoe fits buddy wear it. In your case they probably both fit.

      Delete
    6. Oooh,anon at8:23,aren't you the wise one!

      Delete
    7. Hmmmm, fuckin wa, says anon @23:13.
      That f word can be a verb or an adjective. If a verb, and from what I read, he must be 70 years old, so that is rather commendable that he is willing and able, so some hope for us younger fellas. If an adjective, would his description of the rule of the middle finger lack significance, or what in particular bother you?

      Delete
  19. Back to the article ...

    This project will cost us << $1.124 Billion annual cost >> We currently borrow money just to survive (deficit budgets every year), so at some point, our credit will be exhausted. What do we cut?

    How about Advanced education and skills 722 million, fisheries 55 million, Justice and Public Safety 246 million. Reduce that from $1.023 Billion to zero.

    Not acceptable? How about whacking the 3 billion health budget by 30% ? That would exterminate the most of the employees and you'd have to leave the province for medical care or take a number and wait like that scene in the Beatle Juice movie.

    Personal income tax brings in 1.4 billion. We could double that.

    Sales tax brings in 1.1 Billion. How about 30% sales tax? That might work. /sarc

    These are huge numbers. Those who want to stay here need to revolt and take control of our destiny. We are currently let by sociopaths and fools.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes your leaders imposed this misery.

      What will you do about it? Cringe from the Emperor?

      Do something!

      Delete
    2. Why We Elect Narcissists and Sociopaths—And How We Can Stop!

      Suggested reading for this blog. Book is Available on Amazon.

      Delete
    3. Anom 8:39
      You are correct in that we can't afford ca. $1 billion in annual costs. Problem is that we have no destiny to control anymore, it's been sold off. We are looking at some sort of Commission of Government.

      Delete
    4. This comment has been removed by the author.

      Delete
    5. You should therefore find a mud pit to wallow in. When you are done get up off your hams and take some constructive action.

      Self respect can come from looking the beast in the eye and grunting your disrespect. You may even rise up on your haunches and take a few upright steps on your feet.

      Good work Freddy!

      Delete
    6. Here's my grunt to you Bruno while I look you in the eye

      Delete
  20. Ball says (under oath) that no one was expecting that oil prices could go down to $26 in 2012.

    I would refer Premier Ball to my 11 December 2011 Telegram article "The danger of long term forecasts" ( see www.vision2041.com ) and which asks in part "... how do we protect ourselves (from low oil prices) this time around..."?

    An article that David Vardy described as follows:--

    "You have rendered a great public service by writing your article on forecasts. Your article is yesterday’s Telegram is a good discussion of the risks inherent in long term forecasts. In the highly uncertain world in which we live all forecasts are fraught with danger. By committing now to Muskrat Falls we are making a gamble that oil prices will continue to rise..."

    I even suggested that we needed a 'decelerator' clause.

    So to suggest that no one foresaw the insanity of thinking that oil prices would move in only one direction is just not true and leaves the Commission with an incorrect understanding of the truth.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Not only steadily climb but rise to $260 bbl by 2067 and $120 by now! This was insanity and was the primary financial justification!

      It is hard now to find anyone that would buy these starting assumptions but it was Nalcor's line and everyone swallowed it save for we few "naysayers".

      Delete
    2. I asked the commission (on re-direct) to question Premier Ball on his under oath comment, but to no avail.

      Delete
    3. Keep in mind that Ball may have forgotten or never saw your 2011 letter. If so, then the full truth has no way to get to Leblanc. And further, you may correct that by a written submission to the Commissioner, but just stated that any written submissions from the public, other than by parties, will NOT be posted on the Inquiry website.
      So all is covered: errors or untruths picked up by the public and submitted, will be kept secret, it seems. Only by UG or other media can some truths be told.
      Interesting too, that Leblanc made a Freudian slip, calling Ball, "Premier Marshall". MA often suggested Ed Martin was Premier, so now maybe Stan Marshall is the real Premier, and pulling the strings?
      Winston Adams

      Delete
    4. WA / MA:

      The letter by MA was submitted to the PUB in 2012 - as I understand documents submitted the PUB or in the public etc can be considered as evidence at the commission but not necessarily entered as exhibits.

      I find it hard to believe all documents related to the 2012 PUB decision wont be reviewed - all of both council, witnesses and LeBlanc.

      PENG2

      Delete
    5. PENG2, Yes, I seem to recall now that co-counsel advised early on that PUB info they were familiar with, including mine.
      Yet strange they seemed to not utilise that information fully ; example on CDM they did not challenge Nalcor or Stan on demand reduction of minisplits hps, and Stan's false testimony,( whether his belief or mistake, or intentional),stands. Why was he not asked if his view on that was "authoritative"? We are talking of hundreds of megawatts potential peak demand reduction, reducing the need of new generation for backup. No small detail.
      Winston

      Delete
  21. Anon at July 4,23:13,if we had paid attention to the so called "inane bullshit" of Winston Adams,Maurice Adams,David Vardy,Ron Penney,Cabot Martin and others 8 to 10 years ago,we likely may not be in the position we find ourselves now.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. In the end who should we blame the most for our predicament, those we elected who deceived us, the yay-sayers, or those self-appointed who took on the task of exposing the deceit and failed, the nay-sayers?

      Delete
    2. Perhaps blame the gullible who believed what the hucksters were selling at election time. "Masters of our own destiny" indeed, as somebody else said above, we have no destiny left, the bastards sold it.

      Delete
    3. No we the gullible are not to blame, we relied on those who knew the most and presented it most effectively! It is either the yea-sayers or nay-sayers, pick one.

      Delete
    4. Well if you're gullible enough to swallow all the lies and deception, and if those who "knew the most" can't be trusted not to lie and deceive, I guess all you're left with is Uncle Ottawa ruling you. You can't be trusted and your political leaders and senior civil servants likewise can't be trusted with the public purse and public good.

      Delete
    5. Grow up you mindless asshole and understand the situation we are in!

      Delete
    6. Great come-back, I bet you learned it from some writing on a bathroom stall. You're a real fighting Newfoundlander, 'ey? Everything bad that happens here is somebody else's fault. "Don't look at me, they done it". Grow a spine and accept that this mess is just as much yours as Martin's/Williams'.

      Delete
    7. No sweat, just don't confuse those few sad cats who created this mess with the majority of us victims who have to suffer to pay for the mess the few created. Never before in the annals of NL history has so much been owed by so few because of asinine decisions by a guilty handful.

      Delete
    8. "the majority of us victims who have to suffer to pay for the mess" were all so happy to give the finger to Qc by doing MF, so that is why these "few sad cats who created this", got elected and not any massive reaction against it.

      Even people on this blog refused to put pressure on UG when he proved himself a hater after the SCC judgement and he endorsed co-hater Bruno over so many others.

      So Yes, that majority and its adoption of the hate philosophy started by Moore, amplified by Peckford and continued by all others since, is at the core of the problem.

      Delete
    9. The mandate was 'least cost power' and not damn the torpedoes and give us 'most cost power'.

      Delete
    10. The mandate was to stick it to Quebec; we had the oil and we could roar.

      Delete
    11. Or was the mandate, give the rest of the river to Nova Scotia and New Brunswick?

      Delete
    12. Could be, we're a really generous people, we gave the first half to Quebec, so maybe we should give the rest of it to our sister Atlantic Provinces. Alternatively, we are just really fucking stupid.

      Delete
  22. Speaking of perjury on this multi million dollar inquiry. Dwight Ball our useless premier of our province outright lied to the commission saying he contacted Stan Marshall two days before Mr. Ed Martin left. The truth be known that Ball contacted Marshall while he was vacationing in Belize, actually hounded him to come aboard as he prepared to fire Mr. Martin. This was weeks before Ball said Mr Martin left he even called him when he landed at the airport to see what Stan's decision was. So tell me how can you trust someone who outright lies to the commission. Ball is a total disgrace to our Province. And when Stan Marshall took over as CEO he decided to make a few changes to VPs creating Executive VPs, now what did that cost the taxpayers and rate payers of this Province. Even if you screwup you get a bonus? Hey Gilbert! Screwup and get a $40K bonus. Count me in on that! This inquiry is a complete waste of Taxpayers and Rate payers money. What's the commissioner going to do scold them? What a joke as all these people who take the stand all stab each other in the backs. So embarrassing.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Dwight Ball is a feckless tool, but he did do something right in removing Martin. The lies from Li'il Trump, Martin, deputy ministers and all the Nalcor experts are the only thing world-class about Muskrat Falls. BTW Ed, how would you know about secret calls to Belize?

      Delete
    2. Ball did the right thing in ending the reign of Ed Martin over the province. He deserves credit for that if nothing else. It reminds me of Frank Moores, he got rid of Joe Smallwood and he didn't have to do anything else to get my vote afterwards!

      Delete
    3. Ed was offed, blockhead Stan took his orders--get MF done--and the Emperor continued to pull the strings in The Court of the Crimson King!

      Delete
    4. MF is a classic example of The Peter Principle in action! Stan moved in, promoted Gil to his level of incompetence with a 40k raise.

      Delete
    5. Wasn't Gil already well beyond his level of incompetence?

      Delete
  23. Stan must be conflicted between the position he now holds at Nalcor, complements of Clyde Wells and the provincial liberals, and his holdings in Fortis/NF Power. He may be confusing the Muskrat boondoggle and the opportunities it presents for a predatory investment firm like Fortis, in which he is substantial shareholder. The truth he tells may be swayed by the hat he wears on a particular day.

    ReplyDelete
  24. Kudos to Andy Wells

    https://www.thetelegram.com/opinion/letter-to-the-editor/letter-kudos-to-ex-pub-head-andy-wells-330211/

    ReplyDelete
  25. https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/muskrat-dwight-milestone-1.5201478
    If I were Dwight Ball and assuming he is around much longer?, I would not put on the Nalcor Jersey for say a couple of years from full reservoir at Muskrat. While visiting the site, said jerseys could become badly messed up from the uncontrolled exit of marine deposit diarrhea.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Dwight is in position to show his full character, and courageously lead the Minority Government through the troubled waters of the next few years. Hopefully he wears the jersey in support of the common citizen. Life after the inquiry has now begun. What part will concerned citizens play, going forward?

      Delete
  26. It is sad to see the Digger has gone to the far right. Take today's piece, it seems to suggest we should return to words like "retarded" for those with mental illness, and perhaps admire slave owners like George Washington and Jefferson.
    If one researches the authors,and their associates, they are typical far right and some accused of hate speech. Often Foundations are set up as charities, and the CEO soon taking half a million in salary, publishing articles and collecting online donations. Pro big oil and coal, anti climate change, is a big part of their agenda. Today's piece references the term "false knowledge", written and published by the author 20 years ago, and seems to be the forerunner of the term "fake news",the term praised by Trump to Putin this week ( Trump himself having made over 8000 false or inaccurate statements since President)
    Many of the Digger's pieces are connected to Sanford University and the Hoover Institute. Hoover, a Republican President in the 1920s, was a successful and rich engineer, who opposed Roosevelt's New Deal which helped lessen the hardship of Americans in the Great Depression.
    Seems the Digger would fit right in on July 4 th, as a Trump Cheerleader, as he gave his speech about the troops of George Washington in 1775 taking over the "airports". Yet the far right accuse others of spreading false knowledge!
    One's knowledge depends on the source. If the source is not reliable, neither is the knowledge. We have seen much false knowledge, known as false assumptions, from Nalcor to justify Muskrat.
    Washington wife opposed his freeing of his slaves. Thomas Jefferson drafted the Declaration of Independence, including the words "all men are equal". Yet he too kept his slaves, and were part of his estate after his death. They were sold then to pay off his debts. John Adams, less famous than the other two, refused to own slaves.
    I wonder if the Digger, once our Premier, would oppose the return of the skulls of the Beothic from Scotland?
    Winston Adams

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes Winston, read the Digger's piece, or I should say some of it. I just read enough to get the jest. If one were weak minded, then one might be influenced by it or may start believing some of it. Same with trumpie, just listen to get where he is going then switch channels. He reads at a grade 4 level, but has the charm of a dicitator, or some Hollywood stars. But their basic belief is that North America should be reserved for whites only, but don't always come out and say it directly. But if that is your belief and that is what you preach in discuise, then have the guts to say it clearly and concisely. Was that not what Hitler and company intent was in Europe. But braver souls prevailed. Joe blow.

      Delete
    2. I wish you two would get a room and spare the rest of us.

      Delete
    3. Let you in on a little secret Bruno. We do. Or maybe it just we were born in the same century or decade, similar culture, lived by or on the sea, been through hard times, takes an interest in all things that affect us, open minded, good communicators, want me to go on. Never met, Winston don't know my name. Now put that in your Bruno battery pack and smoke it. Joe blow.

      Delete
    4. You would do everyone a favour if you learned to compress your ideas. Are you from a century that can't hit the enter key so your ideas are not a jumble that can't be read?

      Delete
    5. You don't have to read anything I write Bruno, just pass me by. But no I am not from the generation of one liners. And I don't read one liners, as they usually consist of four letter words, beginning with F and ending with A's. But I am not complaining, let people write anyway they want. That's called viewing the world with an open mind, and not in any persons little world and little mind, that think only they are right and everyone else us an idiot. And I am just exercising my democratic right of freedom of speech and not in the business of as you say, "doing everyone a favour". Not in politics, no intention of going there, and not trying to win any popularity contest. I could have given you a short one liner like, fuck of Bruno. Average Joe.

      Delete
    6. Bruno, you might try adopting the approach of myself and many others on this blog... just skip over the numerous pies of inane, repetitious bullshit scattered throughout the blog with certain labels on them.

      The length of the comment is the first warning sign... whenever I see an overly lengthy comment, before diving into it I first check to see if it was posted by either one of that tormented duo WA or joe blow. If so, I just skip right over it... I've long since stopped reading the incessant, repetitious blather comprising their tedious posts because there's no longer anything interesting to learn from them and they're not worth the time it takes to plow through them.

      And this approach really works... as long as these tormented wretches continue to label their excessive and recursive commentary, you can effectively avoid getting caught in the cross-fire of their dual streams of bullshit.

      Delete
    7. It is good to get a laugh, as a side benefit of this Muskrat Mess.
      This morning, first thing I check the weather, if sunny, rain or foggy. I look over the Bay toward Mad Rock, to see if many boats are trying for cod. No boats.......they say few cod to be had, and little sign of capelin yet. When they first closed the fishery and allowed occasional jigging, I counted 82 small boats off here.
      I next ponder if I will check the blog Capelin Calander, but I decide to first check UG to see if PENG2 is on the Ball, with his geotechnical opinion.
      Then I see Bruno's and AJ comments, and AJ, which made me laugh, such that I had to read both Bruno's And AJs aloud to my wife, who got a laugh too, especially these lines;
      Bruno: I wish you too would get a room
      AJ: Put that in your Bruno battery back and smoke it
      AJ: I could have given you a short one liner like, fuck of Bruno

      Bruno,maybe a closet or fake environmentalist( given his praise of native coal and gas use),so maybe too he approves of the Digger's far right pieces and sources? Rather than comment on that, he attacks me, the messenger as to the value of reliable sources. Often Bruno's sources are not reliable, but he repeats them anyway, so that it is like idle gossip. But like a broken clock, it tells the right time twice a day, so Bruno is sometimes right. I give him a P20 for reliability, a little better than Nalcor meeting Muskrat schedule.
      However, I must say how wrong I was on expected specific sea temperature a while back, but did suggest it was not an exact science. I will explain that a little later. I wonder if something going amuck with the ocean........
      Winston

      Delete
    8. What words of wisdom to, above all, Bruno. Quite sure he is sucking it up and coming out a new informed man on the other side. The same guy, anon :10:10, with his inane, incessant, bullshit words that he uses over and over, quite a vocabulary, I might add. And to get his point across uses almost as many words as I do. Except my style is to write it all in just one paragraph. He breaks it up in sentense form, hoping someone might read at least one. Way to go Bruno, you have a new found friend. Maybe you can call him, anonymous zero. Average Joe.

      Delete
    9. Perhaps I should have opted for the capelin site as a first instinct, for some insight, but things has been slow there yet, but many, even tourists asking when capelin will be at Middle Cove.
      A week ago it showed capelin for this past month in Quebec mostly west of NB, 24 sites I counted, and only 4 in Nlfd. Now 14 in Nlfd, scattered all around, except , most odd, nothing from Trepassey to Cape St Francis. That is where the ocean temperature is odd too.
      Most interesting is on "ecapelin" site: capelin on the Labrador coast, first time there in 20-30 years , at Sandy Point, latitude 54, posted by Jacqeline Harris and George Gear, June 11 to 16 rolling there, (that is a normal time to roll in Nfld,and early for Labrador, but now usually a month late in Nfld). People with these smart telephones take photos and log in their coordinates and a few words.
      Capelin is the mainstay of other species, cod to whales and birds, yet only recently we have now 1 dedicated capelin researcher with DFO, and another doing studies, travelling to Labrador to seek "old timer" knowledge ( speaking of reliable sources). Capelin was making a it of comeback , but then nosedived again in 2107.
      Too few with interest in capelin, as many have oil on the brain syndrome, and seeing that as the fix for Muskrat mitigation....so double production says Ball and Nalcor.
      It's a frenzy situation at Middle Cove when the capelin roll. I wonder if they will roll there this year......although even August some years, as all is now topsie turfy.
      Just one day last week I read 13 climate change oddities, then as Trump gave his speech,on July 4th, 90F in Alaska, hottest on record and matched Miami, Florda, and then the earth quake hit in California on July 4th, like a bad omen, for his climate change denial. Make no wonder he thought George Washington captures airports, he is a bit rattled b his own lies.
      Winston

      Delete
    10. Peckford's blog , About the author, says: I hold opinions. I hold strong opinions. I like to research and seek out the facts. My father called me "Digger" for that reason I suppose.

      Peckford recently posted a piece on the record water level of the Great Lakes, written by Roy Warren Spencer. He cites his credencials. He is indeed a PhD in meteorology, and a research scientist. If you stopped digging there, you might trust his piece and trust Peckford.
      But his paper written and published in 2011 was challenged and the editor later resigned saying it was wrong to accept the paper for publication, it was fundamentally flawed. Of 14 models for data, he used only 6, and that data most supported his hypothesis. Using all the data gives a different conclusion. Spencer also publically exaggerated the papers conclusion.
      Spenser also wrote that he believes in intelligent design over evolution theory, and therefore God's creation is such that the Earth's climate system is designed to be stable. So he basically says that his religious belief supercedes science evidence that can show risk to our climate.
      So for Spencer, climate change is maybe P1 risk! The consenus by climate scientists is 95 % certainity, so P95 .
      Can be trust Spencer or Peckford who relays such opinions?
      I suggest the Digger doth digeth to little.
      Maybe I have said enough on the Digger, and consider him an unreliable source, a climate change sceptic who will continue to promote more oil production, and ignore climate risks.
      Winston Adams

      Delete
    11. Holy smokes Anonymous7 July 2019 at 10:10, our exchange brought a deluge of verbal diarrhea from both AJ and WA. WA in particular made sure he was inane with his ocean temp rant.

      I must learn to ignore the proudly one paragraph crowd from the 18th century that tell me to "fuck of".

      Delete
    12. Will the real Bruno stand up. Diarrhea coming from both ends did you say. Or did I misread you as you miss read me. Said if I were a one liner that would be my response, but I chose the high road and gave you an explanation. But can see you have joined your inane annomyous zero, as your primary running mate. Watch out for the verbal diarrhea now. I can really get nasty when I throw off the Joe mantle and go totally anonymous like others here. And know you just love the totally anonymous trolls. But I digress says average Joe, as my better scense of judgement and civility kicks in. Wouldn't be any use anyway as both you guys wouldn't read it, but then on second taughts you would probably lap it up with no handle attached. Average Joe.

      Delete
    13. AJ your grammar and spelling will give you away when you you tell me to "fuck of".

      Delete
    14. Good observation Bruno, but as I have explained here before, it also includes an operation I had to repair a macular hole in my right eye. It was nit totally successful, but I get by, by sometimes closing one eye, or seeing double at short distances, so needs to view it a number of times to correct any errors. And if I put to f's in fuck, or in off it means the same thing. Guess we may all have some form of physically disability as we age. But if I take the time, and use spell check guess it will be as good as yours. As for grammar could leave you in the dust any day, especially in my hey day. What is your chronology age group Bruno, one minute you are ancient, the next in the X generation. Please squeak up says average Joe.

      Delete
    15. Well Bruno, I threw you a bone on the ocean temperature, and that I made an error, and you nose dived for that, without even waiting an explanation. Meanwhile, most all at the Inquiry never admit to any mistake, as you do not. My mistake was not found by anyone else, I reported one instance this year where the result does not fit my hypothesis.Does that not indicate integrity instead of what you call inane? Unless I tell you more you lack the knowledge to even comment on it. It is but one data point over likely more than a thousand points collected over 10 years. This is not Johnnie Cockran, "If it does not fit, you must aquit" Ten years of data show remarkable correlation, but I never said it was P100.
      Should I explain to you the hypothesis, that you might reconsider?
      Winston Adams
      Winston

      Delete
    16. AJ, yes you must have been something in your "HEY DAY".

      Say Hey Willie!

      Delete
    17. Like your one liners, requires very little effort or taught, no room for errors, spelling or otherwise. Guess that's why some like to keep it rather short. Their vaunderabilities are less apparent except when they run off at the mouth with obscenities and really descriptive adjectives. Would not consider comparing my hey days with yours but will give my offshore Caplin story some day soon, that you seemed to expressed interest. No research required just right off the top of my head of 40 years ago. Average Joe.

      Delete
  27. PENG2
    1. Can you enlighten the UG readers and me with some detail of your concerns for silt and instability of the North Spur?
    Silt, a fine sand, is it excessive water leakage at the North Spur your concern, as to high risk?
    2. Quick clay, which can liquify very quickly.......is that not a serious risk in your opinion?
    3. As to Kettle Lake area:
    Is that a high risk area, whether as to silt or quick clay?
    Monitors for leakage were considered but not incorporated.....is that a serious risk in your opinion?
    Winston Adams

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. PENGzero is paid to distract and confuse, not focus attention with useful analysis. I guess that is why you two get along so well.

      Delete
    2. Bruno, PENG2 has stated repeatedly that he does not think the North spur is safe. That is your concern also and mine and others, some with considerable technical skills.
      PENG2 has not given much detail to his concern but recently stated that 99.9% of people don't even know the meaning of what silt is.
      PENG2 says he is a geotechnical enginner, and has worked as a consultant for Nalcor, but does NOT say the North Spur is safe, but unsafe.
      I invite his clarification.
      Can you explain any dangers from silt, or are you one of the 99.9 % who don't know the meaning?
      Whether he is paid to distract or confuse, I await his reply. Do I get along really well with PENG2? Count the times I have questioned him or disagreed, and there are many instances, but when we disagree we do so respectfully. I would prefer more disclosure from him, including his name, but that is his choice.
      You don't challenge him on technical issues as you lump all as technobabble. If technobabble is not right and explored fully, then the North Spur may fail, the GE Grid software may fail, and too, since end-use forecasting model was not used,and ecnometric distorted, we know the forecast did fail. So technobabble is critical, but beyond your shallow knowledge depth. That is why, I suggest, you envy the iron ring guys, except Elon Musk, (recently fined by the SEC trying to manipulate stock price), and now you can't shake the Bruno battery comparison with Tesla. Sad, because I think you are intelligent enough, but perhaps too lazy to do proper research.
      After several years I think I have shamed you to finally acknowledge the skills of Dave Vardy of the economic issues of MFs.
      That may be momentary lapse by you.
      Winston

      Delete
    3. I trust Bernader's work and the federal scientists that looked scared when they testified UNDER OATH. Zero won't even show his face.

      Chase him down his rabbit holes if you wish.

      Delete
  28. CAPELIN ROLLING HYPOTHESIS:
    Bruno @ 15:55, since you said "Spare me", not wanting to hear my hypothesis ( like a child who would covered their ears), I will tell you.
    This came to me in 2009, so about 8 years after the cod and capelin collapse.
    It was common knowledge that cod arrived about the same time as capelin, and both went into drastic decline at the same time. Yes both were over fished, but were there other issues.
    Capelin had also in recent years been arriving late as to rolling on the beaches, besides being few in number. They were also smaller in size.
    My hypothesis was that perhaps with climate change, the ocean was changing as to water temperature, and that the capelin were responding accordingly to this temperature change, and arriving late; instead of mid June, it was mid July and some years as late as mid August.
    To test this hypothesis, I felt one could monitor the ocean temperature, and see what temperature is preferable for when the capelin arrive and roll on the beaches. Whether there is a pattern, and if there is historic information on that to compare.
    My monitoring comprised a period of 10 years, from 1999 to 2009.
    My temperature sensor was a Micronta model with a stainless steel sensor on a ten foot long conductor wire, which was fairly accurate to one decimal place, and which I could calibrate with ice water for accuracy. I monitored year round, winter and summer. In winter, it was ticky, over the few hundred feet of show and sometimes ice to get to the spots chosen. Summer, spring and fall monitoring was easy. A few times with a big sea running, I had to drop a jug into the water with a rope as I would otherwise be swept away. But never a mishap, and only wetted my feet on one occasion.
    My main location was Quilty's Cove, near where I have my cabin. Other semi-regular locations was Byrant's Cove Beach, and Middle Cove , or Outer Cove Beach. A few other sites on occasion.
    Why did I chose to do this? A few weeks before, in 1999, I chatted with a couple of university students at Bryant's Cove Beach. They were from McGill and doing capelin research. Later, I considered it strange that with our fishery collapse, I encountered no one locally doing research on our beaches as to capelin, yet this resource in their back yard.
    These students from Quebec had but a few weeks, whereas I had access year round. They never mentioned ocean temperature,but I thought it a natural area of inquiry.
    So dear Bruno, that was my hypothesis, and intending to go from ignorance to some knowledge on capelin rolling and timing.
    Was it worth checking do you think, pray tell? Would it show a link between climate change, and changing ocean temperature and capelin rolling that was meaningful or even have predictive value?
    As a professed environmentalist, you may have insight if this was a foolish, an inane idea?
    Winston Adams

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The cod collapse was in 1992. I was there fighting a federal minister asshole named Crosby. Where were you?

      You would need a time series spanning many decades, not one, to draw ANY conclusion.

      Capelin numbers fluctuate and have short life cycle compared to cod.

      As I have told you repeatedly to no avail capelin are a cornerstone species and should NEVER have a directed fishery if you know ANYTHING about multi species management and the ecosystem approach. DFO have paid lip service to this for years but have never done anything close to multi species management.

      Your measuring water temperature and concluding the fish ran away is foolish at best.

      You ain't no fisheries scientist Winston.

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    2. Never claimed to be a fisheries scientist, what are your qualifications, except claiming to be a fighter against Crosby, do you mean John Crosbie, Ches' father? How did you fight? Cuss words?
      I said my monitoring of capelin started in 1999 about 8 years before the cod/capelin collapse, which would give 1991. Is that far off? You sound like Harold Smith saying to Stan Marshall that 22.5 cent power rates is not double 11 cents.
      Capelin have short life compared to cod, did I say otherwise?
      I was monitoring preferred temperature for capelin, not cod, did you notice?
      Need time series of many decades you say. We know for centuries that they arrived mid June, are you saying there was no temperature measurements before mine, or you speculate? And nothing to be learned form 10 years either?
      Measuring water temperature and concluding the capelin ran away is foolish at best you say, so inane effort by me. Should I destroy the data, as temporary notes, like Nalcor/govn officials?
      Now you twist truth and facts; the capelin came late, were fewer and were smaller, but rolled on beaches. They swam, never ran to the beaches where they rolled, and except for those that died, also swam, not ran away. That is foolish talk Bruno, Have you ever seen capelin, they have fins, not legs and feet like a croc. Man oh man.
      Meanwhile, I just googled Collapse of Atalntic northwest fishery, they mention Crosbie, but not you.
      Also it says by 2006 Fisheries dept suggests the unexpectedly slow recovery of cod was due to inadequate food supplies and cooling of the North Atlantic (cooling is temperature related is it not) Also by 2002 they determined that the ecosystem had changed and dominated by crab and scrimp. (Bruno these species also prefer colder water, which seems to agree with 2006 statement. And lack of food for cod also means less capelin in these waters.
      So, what do you think my monitoring showed, water warming or cooling, relative to the season and time of capelin roll?
      What was I doing in 1992 you ask? That is a long story, but your skirmish would pale by comparison.
      Winston

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  29. Lol...you ain't no fisheries scientist Winston, says Bruno. nor me either, but of course your little experiment, gave some results, not universal, but some understanding of a link between fish (Caplin) snd water temperature. And that is a well known fact. So yes, fish migrate with water temperatures, and seek the most convenient temp where possible. No different from humans and and life as we know it on earth. Why do you think Burno, most of the worlds population is habitating in the tropical zones, or in the sub-tropical zones, or lesser numbers.in the higher latitudes. Why are there such sparse populations near the Arctic and Antarctic, I would take a guess that it might have something to do with temperature,which affects everything else, food supply, ability to live comfortable and excel etc. Fish are no different. Some like the warm water temps, others species Ike the colder temps and others like the fridge temps, and that is their environment. So they follow as closely as possible their preferred temp and availability of food. Could go on and ask why there is no life, as we know it on Mars, Pluto or no where in between. It's like Goldie locks and the 3 bears. This bed is just right, until the owner of the beds arrive. And any fish scientist that tells me he knows all their is to know about fish species, their habitats, their numbers etc. Is in the same category as the environmental scientist. They know a lot from their observations, technical skills, study etc. But not everything. So keep on doing your water temps, because as you said some don't even know it. Joe blow.

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    1. That was quite a brain fart all without a paragraph break Winston!

      You need a lesson on fisheries science. In the late 1980's and early 1990's we implemented "political quotas" that overrode science and set quotas to meet politicians agenda. Remember Leslie Harris' plaintive plea that was ignored?

      John Crosby was the most unabashed about ignoring the science and setting political, not scientific quotas. He wiped out the cod in a few short years after Harris' warning.

      Any reputable NAFO fisheries scientist during this period jumped ship and took a job in academia or found other honest work.

      I took a fisheries science course from ICES scientists on the Isle Of Man. Unlike our scientists that were expected to be spineless, ICES scientists had to defend their work and give reputable quota recommendations. They gave good advice that were protective of stocks in Iceland, the Barents sea, etc.

      They taught us how the formulas used to set stocks suffered from serious deficiencies. Both the constants for natural mortality and "bycatch", the dumping of increasing proportions of the catch as the stocks dwindled, get wildly wrong when stocks dwindle. They also sang the praise of ecosystem management that here are just hollow catchphrases.

      This is not as good as measuring temperature and extrapolating that fish ran away!

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    2. ICES, one deals with Health, the other with exploration of the sea, I assume your course was with the latter. How long was that course?What year?Crosby is spelled Crosbie.
      You waste 1/4 with empty space, not a problem but no points for you as to content.
      Are you aware that cod have moved hundreds of miles north into the Barents sea for sea temperature reasons in recent years, or you are not keeping up to date? And they didn't run there, but swam to more suitable water temperature the researchers say.
      You harp on over catching, which I don't disagree, but like Nalcor, you have tunnel vision, and a blind eye to other factors....and especially to climate change and water temperatures. Are not misquitoes and other pests on land moving north with climate change. Is not hurricanes getting stronger with warmer sea temperatures? Warmer or colder and species will move, for fish ,they usually swim.

      FINDINGS: For Conception Bay, max sea temperature about 64F about the end of August. coldest about 28 F in January. Changes little during Jan to Mar , then starts warming in April. Once it starts upward, the rate of warming is about 0.25 F per day. Guess you know this?
      Conception Bay is much influenced by the Labrador current. East of St John's the Gulf Stream has effect also. You probably know that.
      The gradual rise in Conception Bay is sometimes hard hit by a Labrador current inflow. Amazing that the temperature can drop by 10 F or more in 24 hours. This likely to happen once or twice from April to July. So when you plot it, a straight line rise gets a big setback from that cold current. It takes about a week or 10 days for that to recover and continue its steady rise. If this occurs near the time when conditions are favourable, it can put a kinker in the timing of capelin roll, to delay it.

      KEY FINDING; capelin prefer 50 F near beach water temperature to start the beach rolling. They may roll a few degrees above or below, but mostly 50, or 49.5 F more accurate is ideal it seems, so in round numbers 50 F or 10 C
      Do you know that Nfld has what we call capelin weather? No other fish is so respected as to weather. This is in June, and air temperatures moderate, and often foggy. It might imply that capelin caused that weather, but actually that weather is ideal for capelin
      reproduction and survival of eggs on the beach sand.
      Your ICES course, did you specifically study capelin?
      The inference is that sea temperatures of 50 F we now typically get mid July , used to occur mid June, so the capelin just wait for that, whether it occurs early July , late July or August.
      Now a picture or a chart s worth a thousand words, so the pattern is very clear. Times they are a changin, as the climate is cahngin, and the ocean and air.
      Surprised you would so easily dismiss that. An hypothesis is one thing, but my data supports it.
      But not in your world ?
      Winston Adams






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    3. Capelin working toward Middle Cove, 8 sightings today from Ferryland to Witless Bay.
      Eggs cooking on the beach with sun and hot weather. Not capelin weather, so many eggs will die. They are out of season, Bruno.
      Winston

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    4. How long was your course? Did you study capelin? Why your silence? PENG2 is silent and now you too.
      Winston

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  30. The Danny L'il Trump Williams announces, via free PR on boot-lickin' VOCM and CBC, that sales of cookie-cutter shacks in Galway are "on bust"!!! NL, do you still believe anything that comes out of that oracle of St. Bons anymore?? Perhaps, you also agree with his equivalently statured but more corpulent l'il bro Tommy, that MF will make NL insanely rich in 50 yaers

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  31. Better hurray Winston and get your money down on a Gall Way cookie cutter home that are going like hotcakes or should that be 3 cent teabags?

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  32. More interested in PENG2 and his opinion on the North Spur then Galway. Maybe as you imply his contract ran out after Ball testified?
    Certainly he is slow to respond to my questions.
    Winston

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  33. Breaking News: It's official, Bruno has renamed himself "BRAIN FARTS". It came after a long day of protesting against Caplin landing on the beaches of NL. He refused to exhale during the protest and enhanced his regular size by a factor of what he called squared, and then cubed. And in addition to being called brain farts, he said it is ok to call him brainfarts squared and cubed. Stay tuned for the big blowout.

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    1. Larry Hudson reporting from Marystown.

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