Monday, 19 August 2019

JUDGE LeBLANC TO REPLACE JIMMY KIMMEL AS NL's MEDIA SENSATION

As the fun was winding down in Dildo, Jimmy Kimmel having accepted the title of Honorary Mayor rather than face an Election, Judge Richard LeBlanc was wrapping up the Inquiry into the Muskrat Falls Project. It was time to begin the contemplation of a problem far harder than that which had excited Kimmel’s viewers all week.

Likely, Kimmel had stolen even the “die-hards” who might have otherwise tuned in for the Inquiry’s last inning. There was no pleasure to be had in Goose Bay anyway. There was only the pained legal verbiage of banal lawyers representing Nalcor and the venal politicians — the “culprits” — as well as the “contractors” (Astaldi), the “silent”  (Newfoundland Power), and the senior bureaucrats, the “submissives”, whose practiced deference helped create the debacle.

Judge LeBlanc will have the last word; unlike Kimmel, cautious metaphor will be the least of his problems. 

As one of the interveners, I am glad it is over.

It was an essential piece of work, one whose creation was long sought by writers on this Blog, including this scribe. I acknowledge the Ball Government having called it, even if after some prodding.

I also look forward to the Commissioner’s Report and believe that Judge LeBlanc will deliver one that is fair and balanced and likely — dare I say — to satisfy no one.

There are some things I already miss: Commission Counsel Kate O’Brien’s star power, for example. She resigned a bit early, following her appointment to the Supreme Court, but left a profound impact on the Commission with a trail of determined, insightful and intelligent examination of Witnesses that spoke to her suitability to perform the complex and challenging role.
Commissioner Richard LeBlanc     (CBC Photo)

Except for those who spend a lot of time in and out of the courts, we might miss Co-Counsel, Barry Learmonth, too; his skilled, detailed and relentless Examinations having either elicited answers from reluctant storytellers or unceremoniously exposed their ill-intent. Altogether, his was also a superior performance.

Some of the Examinations were especially memorable. O’Brien’s patiently insistent handling of Ed Martin, during Phase I, qualifies. Weaker litigators might have lost patience with him far earlier but she stuck to her script, leaving it to LeBlanc to reign in the arrogant, failed CEO.  The Judge may have allowed his practiced patience with courtroom bullshit to slow his eventual dressing-down of the man but it came, even if somewhat late. “I've had it, Mr. Martin,” an exasperated LeBlanc bellowed, the hard crash of his gavel signifying that he had heard enough of Martin’s evasive bullying after more than two and a half days on the Witness Stand. “You're not being the witness here. You're trying to run the show. It's going to stop right now. And if it doesn't stop, unfortunately I'm not going to be able to hear the rest of your story.”

The Judge was not nearly finished: “You are not responsive to the questions. You're actually being rude as far as I'm concerned and I don't want it anymore. I wouldn't put up with it in court, and I'm not going to put up with it here,” LeBlanc continued, often wagging his forefinger in Martin’s direction.

Danny Williams might also have come in for an early and similar dose of the Judge’s wrath. The smug former Premier who — though having signed the Term Sheet with Emera and the Premier of Nova Scotia which put the Muskrat Falls project in motion — was unable to produce any of the analyses proving the worthiness of the project, which he boasted had been prepared by his Administration. Instead of merely enlisting Williams’ help in locating them, given the size of the debacle he had spearheaded, the Judge might have sent him off to Confederation Building with appropriate threats if the hunt did not end successfully. 

That said, Barry Learmonth’s interrogation — “mauling” is a better word — of former senior bureaucrat, Todd Stanley, during his “walk-back” from earlier assertions that Nalcor was a “runaway” train, as ordinary civil administration goes, should remain for every Muskrat watcher just a “click” away.

Irene Muzychka, who replaced O’Brien, did not have sufficient time to climb the steep learning curve, but junior Counsel Michael Collins’ tackling of complex engineering issues, his sharp memory of Witness testimony and project reports, and his unflappable and thorough questioning of Witnesses, did not go unnoticed.

There are some things I won’t miss, and not just the hours given to reading pre-Examination interviews and framing questions. I especially won’t miss watching ill-equipped lawyers representing “Parties with Standing” work through issues which they clearly did not understand.

If there was a fault with the Inquiry’s structure and process it was surely that engineers, economists, and other professionals were not permitted (ostensibly because of the requirements of the Public Inquiries Act) to ask questions to Witnesses directly. Such a process would have facilitated a more equal encounter; questions and answers from opposing professionals of similar training and expertise would have produced a more accurate and useful outcome and limited Witnesses’ ability to leave the questioner snowed. 

It is also worth remembering that there were only three Parties with Standing that did not represent Government or private interests (i.e. the Premier, bureaucrats, Nalcor officials). In addition to Counsel, public interest intervenors included only the Concerned Citizens Coalition, the Consumer Advocate, and the Grand River Keepers. The Crown barely played a role, a matter to which I may return another time. Notwithstanding their right to Counsel, the private interests were represented by well over twenty lawyers.

Did due process, permitting every politician and bureaucrat to protect their derrieres, place the public interest in a position of disfavour? I expect that, in time, this is an issue that government, policy institutions, and academics will assess.

Still, I am certain that the heft of Commission Counsel was a strong compensatory influence given not just their skill-sets but also the sheer volume of Exhibits examined and the number of issues raised.

As an intervenor, I might not be the best one to weigh the contribution of the Concerned Citizens Coalition or that of the other two public interest Parties. I hope that each of us made some mark on the outcome. For me, personally, David Vardy’s name will always stand out for his hard work, superior intellect and unwavering focus. Ron Penney and others, most preferring to be nameless, also offered their time and considerable expertise, all of whom justly deserve the moniker “citizen”.

Did the Commission hear all the issues on the minds of the Concerned Citizens Coalition? No, but the Coalition had ample opportunity to be heard and its 83-page written summation reflects views formulated both before and since the Inquiry got underway.

There are many members of the public who still believe that the Inquiry was a waste of money. I disagree, and have said so many times even knowing that nothing that the Commissioner reports will return the immense amount of public money squandered.

I remind people daily that, no differently than the Budget deficit and the out-sized public debt, the cost of repairing the financial damage caused to the province by this project has not struck home. When the bill arrives, presumably next year, I expect that Judge Richard LeBlanc will quickly replace Jimmy Kimmel as Newfoundland and Labrador’s media sensation. Just watch, too, as those power bills replace the high-toned humour for which Dildo was suitably recognized last week (and for which Dildonians deserve applause!).

The Judge’s Report will chronicle incompetence of comedic proportions. Unlike the week in Dildo, humour will be hard to find; even in tone expect only the pejorative. In which case it is well to remember that, when a far less smiley Judge LeBlanc (less than Jimmy Kimmel anyway) gives you the straight goods, be sure that you don’t shoot the messenger.

134 comments:

  1. No LeBlanc will be NL new Dildo when the report is issued.

    Methinks UG suffers from the Stockholm Syndrome and has identified with his captors in the faux inquiry.

    Never mind that he is unable to point fingers and assign blame, LeBlank has a rubber chicken, here come da judge!

    Never mind the funding provided was carefully apportioned so the public interest was woefully underrepresented, save for MFCCC. Perhaps in the glow of your importance in the faux inquiry you missed that Kate O'Brien was "elevated" to the bench (ascended to the rarefied air, forbidden we mere mortals) just as detailed technical questioning was about to commence. Whoops!

    Perhaps you missed that others that were deemed "not expert" and denied representation and funding only to be called to testify in camera on water management, testimony the unwashed masses were denied.

    In short Judge LeBlanc and his rubber chicken were a shit show that comforted the guilty and afflicted yet again the innocent!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I would rate this UG piece as a B+, and Bruno's comment as a C+ or near a B. I do side with Bruno on some points. However Bruno is totally negative. Some of Bruno has humour value.
      Why would I want Bruno banned from UG, as he has falsely stated?
      And too, take note that Bruno must have had a restless night, and posted on UG's previous piece to Robert at 05:49am. Either he was restless over climate change,or stoking his stove with coal at that eraly hour, perhaps the former. His very early comment, in reply to Robert, was about the oil industry destroying the planet, in reference to the latest offshore oil spill at Hibernia. Likely that set his mood for saying all of the Inquiry was a shit show. In reality, it was part shit show, I suggest maybe 50 %.
      Winston Adams

      Delete
  2. Will MFCCC now continue as a consumer advocate in the efforts to find a way forward that ameliorates the expected and untenable increases in power cost to consumers, maybe change name to Concerned Consumers Coalition. Unlike Advocate Browne, start soliciting and eliciting solutions, positing alternate methods, individual
    and group actions to help save us.

    I have decried on this blog for some time the lack of a plan, can MFCCC take on this tangly but necessary task of developing a plan? Politicians and utility heads are somehow blithely ignorant in a contest to see who can be most like Marie Antoinette. There is little hope relief can be found in that quarter.

    We the people need a plan and leadership, without which we might as well just freeze in the dark or
    starve with the lights on. Desperation takes many forms.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Maybe a moratorium on all mega projects, (>$1B), be taken away from vested powerful interests such a the petroleum cabal, crown corps, (NALCOR). Who do we trust with decision-making say to wind down the failing structure of the Hibernia platform? Northern Spur?

      Delete
    2. Tor, seek out your sitting MHA and MP and express your concerns. You can have a coffee chat, and ask for some of Marie's marvellous cake. With the price of everything about to take off, with the engineered haircut on the $US, you might suggest to the noble representatives that if the price of bread doubles, you will organize a Bastille parade to dump some shit on their lawns and Confed parking lot:-)

      Delete
  3. I just skimmed through that summary and it was like describing the condition of someone with advanced cancer. Everything is failing and there are hundreds of things wrong. Liver failure, underestimated budget, lung congestion, refusal to consider demand management, low WBC count, firing people with hydro experience.

    In one case the problem is cancer. In the latter, it is Mr Williams and he metastasized. This government and its institutions is at stage 4.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Don't worry, Trump hasn't got a hope

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-trade-war-is-already-lost-trump-is-doomed-and-this-investment-is-about-to-go-ballistic-strategist-says-2019-08-15?mod=mw_theo_homepage

    Now what plan, as Tor asks, does Osbourne/Morneau/Polus have to save us all? Is there any Gold held in the Central Bank? or was it all given away at 10c on the dollar, to the evil empire?

    ReplyDelete
  5. Here is an excerpt from the MFCCC Final Summation --- re Faryn v. Chorny 1951 Canlii 252 (B.C.C.A) --------

    "...the real test of the truth of the story of a witness...must be its harmony with the preponderance of the probabilities which a practical and informed person would readily recognize as reasonable in that place and in those conditions".

    So reasonableness relates not only to what a "practical" person would recognize, but also what an "informed" one would recognize.

    And such a person must not only be a practical and informed person, but must also be able to recognize the 'reasonableness' (or unreasonableness) ------- "readily".

    I would submit that all 13 of my 2011 and 2012 MF-related articles/letters that were published in The Telegram, as well as my comments concerning key "assumptions" and "forecast" accuracy issues in my February 2012 written submission to the PUB least-cost review, do just that.

    They not only meet the above test but they constitute my contemporaneous public comments.

    They were written and made available to the public during the --- "at the time", contemporaneous pre-sanction time requirements of the Inquiry Terms of Reference.

    Accordingly, I submitted them to the Commissioner as part of my "online comments" prior to the August 15th deadline.

    But even though the Consumer Advocate filed some data from my website as exhibits, and even though co-counsel (Learmonth) referred one of my early 2011 letters (The danger of long term forecasts) to one of the expert witnesses, suggesting that it reflected (as early as 2011) the evidence that was being provided by the expert witness, will the Commissioner ever see or read my unedited or unredacted August 2019 online comments?

    Or will they even get past the Commissioner's legal team?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Ma @ 13:58:

      Everything submitted to PUB or is in the public relam is fair game for LeBlanc to consider - this was covered under rules of evidence early on. My understanding is that only exhibits that council want to specifically question a witness on or are privately held must be presented if LeBLanc is to consider.

      In the mean time, this statement of yours, supports my long held claim that the public are also responsible for MF:
      [start]
      I would submit that all 13 of my 2011 and 2012 MF-related articles/letters that were published in The Telegram, as well as my comments concerning key "assumptions" and "forecast" accuracy issues in my February 2012 written submission to the PUB least-cost review, do just that.
      [end]

      Your claim that your letters to the Telegram or PUB etc meet the litmus test for giving people the opportunity to be informed (now whether they took that opportunity is a different story).

      My litmus test is that learned individuals cant claim plausible deniability (and thus should have known better), however the general public can claim ignorance to a small degree - the public didn't need to understand what was said, just that there was enough dissenting info and 'heckling' of naysayers that any average person should have asked themselves 'why?' instead of drinking the DW Kool-Aid.

      PENG2

      Delete
    2. Peng2, Plausible deniability, do you deny that Quebec and HQ tried to buy New Brunswick Power in order to prevent NL from accessing the American market place for electricity?

      Delete
    3. Anony @ 18:20:

      Stop with the DW Kool-Aid - the deal was scuttled 2-3yrs before MF was sanctioned. And on top of that - we still don't have access to the American market because of transmission limitations in NB and we need effective permission from Emera.

      Again, Quebec boogey man at work....

      PENG2

      Delete
    4. Some have said that if the shoe were on the other foot in the NL/Quebec dispute that the CF contract inequity problem would have been solved and solved "tout de suite". I agree it would.

      Delete
    5. It walks like a duck, it quacks like a duck, its a duck! Don't be stupid!

      Delete
    6. Anony @ 18:45:

      There is nothing wrong with the CF deal - we got exactly what we asked for. So you know, if we used the $30b profit to HQ and $1b profit to NL that's about 3% - the great DW negotiated a 'super royalty' for Hebron oil at 4.5%, not really much different is it?

      In the mean time - maybe look at the Quebec vs NL positions on the 1927 Privy council decision, QC has a big issue (and rightfully so because they were wronged there), but that hasn't been interfered with by Canada either.

      Again, QC boogey man in NL is alive and well.

      PENG2

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    7. Censorship takes many forms! Got to love it.

      Delete
    8. Hope that the learned Commissioner has hired a good technical writer for the job. At Nova Scotia Tech, (1960), Technical Writing was taught to get the facts, with minimum opinions, and apply something referred to a "fog indexing", simplicity, easy to read and understand. RBC used to write wonderfully readable newsletters back in the day, based on important everyday topics, and drawing from Technical Writing "Queen's English", Oxford Concise, good grammar and such. Non of that "so fun" twitter parlance. K.I.S.S.

      Delete
    9. @MA, this site: http://www.nlcpr.com/AvalonPowerDemand.php discussed Muskrat Falls and Avalon power needs back in 2010 and had hundreds of thousands of views and many millions for the entire site.

      This information was reviewed with two prominent and powerful MHAs and they were both powerless. The leader does what the party wants, and the party does what its powerful backers want. Powerful people wanted Muskrat Falls because it was a multi billion dollar cash cow from which to siphon profits.

      We have a sham democracy - it is only there to give us the illusion of self rule. We are allowed to stop things like a fence on signal hill, but have zero say in anything that generates profits for the powerful.

      Delete
    10. To anon 18:20 (aka DW's Kool Aid drinker...)

      Under the deal (last iteration), Hydro-Québec would have acquired most of the province's power-generation assets, but New Brunswick WOULD MAINTAIN CONTROL of transmission and distribution.

      https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/in-revised-deal-nb-power-to-retain-some-assets/article4351420/

      Delete
    11. Again, about this NB power proposed deal (copy and paste of my comments here, more than two years ago):

      The main interest of HQ here was that NB Hydro power generation was not too flexible: it produced to much power off-peak than it could store (thus some was wasted), and conversely its peak power production was somewhat costly.

      HQ immense set of reservoirs were the ideal complement to those NB base production assets. HQ was therefore the best fit to serve NB clients, at a lower cost.

      But as the time went by, in Quebec that deal was more and more perceived as giving away 100% of the cost savings to NB Hydro clients (well, "subsidizing" was the term used), while taking over crumbling assets that would need huge repair investments.

      ------------------------------------------------------------

      From a real world NB perspective:

      "An economic analysis (commissioned by the Graham government) to Washington's NERA Economic Consulting estimated that the tentative deal would save New Brunswick ratepayers $5.6 billion over a 30-year period compared to the status quo. The study also showed that residential, commercial and wholesale customers would reap 60% of the savings, but the savings would happen later than the discounts granted upfront to large industrial customers."

      --------------------------------------------------------

      You can make your own opinion here if this was a loss of a golden opportunity for NB - or not.

      Ex

      Delete
    12. Ex @ 14:34:

      If my memory serves, the main group(s) against the HQ acquisition of the NB Power assets were those that DW rallied in support of MF and critics of weak(ie about to be ousted) NS and NB governments?

      What was the rural francophone reaction to HQ on this?

      PENG2

      Delete
    13. PENG2:

      I only know from an Ottawa / Montréal point of view.

      Québec's commentators were surprised with NB's resentment against Québec in this (and also thanks to DW involvements..).

      Combined that with the apparently excessive generosity of HQ's offer; some economic actors started to question if the whole thing was worth the trouble (-->>imagine HQ managing NB customers that believes their province has been had by "Evil" HQ).

      I'm personnally happy HQ did not buy that mess.


      Delete
    14. Ex-Military Engr20 August 2019 at 18:34. HQ also realized what a money pit Point Lepreau, NB Power's nuke is and how the ECONOMICS, not nationalistic politics that drove HQ's rejection of NB Power after they kicked the tires.

      Delete
    15. From the start, Point Lepreau was not included in HQ's offer.

      Nuclear was not HQ core expertise. And there was too many unknown in Lepreau's refurbishment.

      Delete
  6. Call it Dildo Diplomacy: Kemmell and Ball gets Nfld om the American radar. Did not AJ suggest we join the USA to clear out our MFs debt?
    Trump wants to buy Greenland, for minerals and key military location. The value says the Financial Times is 1.1 trillion. That matches the Norway oil heritage fund.
    Interesting that Denmark picks up the cost of about 700 million debt per year for Greenland, equal to that needed to subsidize MFs per year.
    At 1.1 trillion that is like 150 years cost saving to Denmark.
    Now is Nfld and Labrador worth equal to Greenland, or more or less? Or Trumpie buys both Greenland and Nfld and Labrador?
    Not saying this a good idea, but Canada, take notice. Work the deal with MFs mitigation?

    Winston Adams

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The better deal would be to buy Labrador, and let Avalon eat some cake, as Tor would say. If Labrador, were sold to QC, with their more viable entrepreneurial talents, the avaloneers could all set up casinos to gamble away their windfall $$$. Remember, our renowned politicians in the bad old 20's and 30's were selling out the Lab for peanuts, ($10million or so). Now, how much is Alaska worth to BC? Canada missed out by a hare, in making as Laurier wished "the twentieth will be Canada's century". Oh well, Kimmel can only trade on the dime in Trinity Bay. I still remember the stench of rotted whale when driving through Dildo in the 40's and 50's.

      Delete
    2. Mogul One's wish to buy Greenland may have more to do with modern military weapons and the strategic location of Greenland on the eastern flank of North America, as Alaska is on the western flank. Trump is not necessarily as stunned as the media makes him out to be?

      Delete
    3. Anonymous19 August 2019 at 18:54 Trump may not be stunned but you certainly are!

      Delete
    4. Bruno, You are so smart, I kind of figured you to vote for Trump in the coming election along with the rest of the Russians.

      Delete
  7. Let us hope the commissioner in his report spends more time on the foresight fraud that took place including manipulation of estimates, risks, load forecasts, present worth analysis etc than he does on the alleged 'hindsight bias' suggeated by the guilty parties in this fraud against the people.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I see it as a large conspiracy against the public. There were ring leaders who spearheaded it (DW and likely a few others), organizations with large profit motives (banks, pennycon, the local business community) and large and large personal incomes (people put into high paying positions to keep as long as they tow the line).

      The people in the middle, who made it all work (government and nalcor management) are largely simple people who are there because of a proven williness to be sycophants. smart people, aside from psychopaths, don't handle this role well. They tend to give intelligent, thoughtful answers to questions and this makes senior management very angry. "You know I can't send this to the minister!" could be translated as DM speak for "how dare you F with plausible deniability".

      Morally, the people that need to be jailed over this are those at the top of the scheme. The rest deserve to be fired.

      Delete
  8. PENG2 ---- When you say "...Your claim that your letters to the Telegram or PUB etc meet the litmus test for giving people the opportunity to be informed", you mis-state or misrepresent what I said.

    My claim is that MY articles/letters/PUB submission meet the litmus test re providing evidence of the "author's" practicality and of being informed, and that these contemporaneous (at the time) nature, is evidence of "readily" recognizing the unreasonableness of Nalcor's assumptions/forecasts,etc.

    And at Anon 17:49.------- I agree. But I am going beyond mere "hope". I am saying that my contemporaneous "public" articles, letters/and some web postings provide evidence that a 'practical"/ "informed" (non-expert) could (and did) readily recognize the many and diverse flaws in Nalcor's assumptions, forecasts, etc. ----- but these were not entered into evidence by the the inquiry counsel, the CA nor the MFCCC counsel, and while the Inquiry Admin advises that my comments were forwarded to the inquiry's "legal team" ---- that hardly meets the requirements of the Commissioner's Notice with respect to public consultations.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. MA @ 19:15:

      Being an 'average' individual (I think you have previously said you are not an Engineer, politician, construction expert etc) but have an education - how do you reconcile the disjoint in that you were well knowledgeable of the risks/issues but no one else was?

      My simple statement is that you published a number of letters based on readily (and publically) available info that caused you to question MF. I cant see how you can now say that the rest of the public shouldn't have been as equally informed as you - especially when documentation such as your (and others) was available prior to the 2011 election and sanction.

      It is not reasonable to claim that Nalcor official were informed by public information when the public wasn't expected to be - not a logical argument, I don't expect the average public to understand a lot of the technical info, but there was enough for them to have asked questions and not offer a blind 80% support.

      PENG2

      Delete
    2. If my memory serves, MF was barely mentioned during the run-up to the election.

      I don't agree that "no on else was" knowledgeable.

      I may have been early off the mark, but others such as the now CA (Dennis Browne,) David Vardy, Des Sullivan, Ron Penny, Cabot Martin and quite a few others were also early off the mark.

      I retired from Coast Guard in 2007, so I had the time to make myself reasonably knowledgeable (enough to see the fiasco/boondoggle that MF was).

      Given how government and Nalcor REPEATEDLY bulls...tted the people, the average working person did not stand a chance (and therefore in my view cannot be held accountable for the mess we are in).

      That accolade goes entirely to government(s) --- federal and provincial, and Nalcor.


      Delete
    3. Also PENG2, I spent some years as the NL Coast Guard Region's representative/project manager on various national projects, honing my bulls...t detector, re-shaping/re-focusing them where possible so that they would more properly suit our regional requirements.

      That experience was very helpful in recognizing bulls...t, even 'expert' bulls...t, when I see it.

      Delete
    4. Well put as usual Maurice.

      PENG2 has a dog in this fight, cloaked in secrecy to mask his traitorous hatred of NL and is a champion of your oligarchs. He will never let logic sway his victim blaming/shaming.

      Delete
    5. MA @ 20:10:

      Your memory is wrong - MF was the platform of the 2011 election, infact wasn't the PUB was already engaged at that time on if MF was the 'least cost'?

      I agree with this letter to the Telegram from June 2011, KD ran on a MF platform and got elected because the electorate already bough the 'energy warehouse' crap (wasn't this pandering crap 2yrs old in 2011???):
      [start]
      The Telegram’s editorial of June 1, “Sound advice,” quotes Premier Kathy Dunderdale as follows: “Now, Mr. Speaker, my own personal view is if anybody goes to represent the people of this province then they should have the blessings of the people of this province.”

      Well then, using your own words, Premier Dunderdale, how can you lead this province and “represent the people” on this multi- billion dollar, debt-infested, high-cost Muskrat Falls project — without having “the blessings of the people”? Neither the project itself, nor your anointment through an undemocratic fumbling with the constitution of the Progressive Conservative Party of Newfoundland and Labrador, has “the blessings of the people.”

      Accordingly, if you truly believe that your leadership must have “the blessing of the people,” then you can only “represent the people” on Muskrat Falls after the election.

      Let’s see what the people think before you put us into billions more in debt, dramatically increase the power bills of Newfoundland and Labrador consumers — all while giving our business competitors and the people of Nova Scotia Muskrat Falls power for free.
      [end]

      I know I have posted this several times, but have never you comment on it?

      You are correct - infact there were 119 letters in the Telegram from June 2011 through Feb 2012 questioning MF and only about 1/10th that supporting - review MF-2012-02-27 to see just who, quite a listing of 7-8 profs from all discipline and several former PC cabinet ministers among others.

      Bottom line, the public wanted the 'energy warehouse' - it made us feel good and we thought we had the Quebec boogey man beaten.

      In the end, we only fooled ourselves.........

      PENG2

      Delete

    6. Problem was government did not inform the public about the true 'need', 'affordability' and 'risks' associated with Muskrat. Government hid the truth from the voters, period. That's how they got elected.

      As to the reliability of your letters list (I had several letters questioning Muskrat published in The Tele BEFORE June 2011.)

      Delete
    7. MA @ 21:11:

      Whether or not the government hid the truth is not germane - the fact is there was significant information publically available that should have made any member of the average public question what was being said by government. KD's government got elected with full knowledge of the public knowing she was going to execute MF - informed, lied to etc makes no difference to the public's culpability.

      The fact is, MF had 80% support and even had 70% support as recently as 2016/2017 - just before the Inquiry was called, and to this day there are many that say the Inquiry was a waste and MF is a good thing.

      I don't dispute there was lots of dissenting opinion on MF from long before June 2011, that compilation just happens to be a sample of what the public has easy access to from the PUB hearings.

      PENG2

      Delete
    8. PENG2 : 7 or 8 profs.....what percentage is that? Is it a good record for MUN on helping inform public opinion?

      Would you say that at present there is a lot of dissenting opinion on the river impoundment? That if there is acute failure, that the pubic should have known the risks but went along, like for MFs project?
      Can you explain why residents are not concerned as you and I that it is risky to live down stream, since you and I have stated this on UG. Why are they not worried like we are, as to living downstream? Have counter arguments smothers you and me, and a few others? Has the media come looking for you do a story?
      Winston Adams

      Delete
    9. Weird logic PENG2 (and you are an engineer?).

      "lied to... makes no difference"??????

      That is your definition of 'informed consent'?

      My 'bulls..t' detector just blew a fuse.

      Delete
    10. Ma @ 21:59:

      At least try to make an attempt to quote properly, here is the full sentence (and your snip is at best a bad attempt to misconstrue my statement, else a deliberate misquote):
      [start]
      Whether or not the government hid the truth is not germane - the fact is there was significant information publically available that should have made any member of the average public question what was being said by government. KD's government got elected with full knowledge of the public knowing she was going to execute MF - informed, lied to etc makes no difference to the public's culpability.
      [end]

      I stand by my comment that the public allowed themselves to be lied to.

      And the follow-up question to you is how do you explain still having MoA's that voted for MF in 2011 getting re-elected this past May if not by the action of the public?


      WA @ 21:57:
      Honestly, I have seen almost no opposition to impoundment - I don't know if this is the public just being resigned to fate or what.



      Just like in the 2011 election, I cant explain the gullibility of the public.

      PENG2

      Delete
    11. PENG2, when did you read the Polly report, I assume your read the 156 pages. Only recently I did, as mentioned, missed Gordon's link last summer, and at that time making big decisions on proceeding with wife's liver surgery in Texas.
      I think it refers to design being for 1/10,000 acute failure event , but in reality 1/600 is the record in BC? So 2 failures every 10 years in BC expected? Not sure on that as I read quickly one night, and would need a better review. If so , acute failure is not that rare? Perhaps you can comment further. And that is designed earth dams, not natural ones , which are more risky, right?
      Winston

      Delete
    12. This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

      Delete
    13. PS Maurice my Bullshit meter also blew a 50 amp fuse with "the public allowed themselves to be lied to".

      Delete
    14. Yes, think there is some truth in the statement, "the people allowed themselves to be lied to". And some just don't care, their political beliefs are so strong, that it overrides all logical thinking, for themselves, their families and their province. We all know who the 3 main culprits were for causing muskrat to be hung around our collective necks for the next 50 years, and despite that if either of these 3, including Eddie, were to run for public office they would have gotten elected in the last election, hands down. Particularly on the Avalon. And peng2 has given similar examples. Now that don't apply to every person in the province, but we are a lot like the Americans, I was born in the GOP and I will die in the Grand old party, and I don't care who runs they have my vote. Even a pathological liar, a demogragry, or a Hitler. Joe blow.

      Delete
    15. "the public allowed themselves to be lied to" is like saying that the public gets what it deserves because they aren't currently willing to start a civil war and overthrow the government.

      The average person just struggles to survive. They get news from social media, TV and Radio. The CBC is national propaganda and does very little journalism that would reflect badly on our government - so no way they were going to comb through the federal loan guarantee and its implications. Many times, comments are disabled which I believe is to prevent the comment section from attacking the propaganda of the main article.

      VOCM doesn't have comments anymore, and the articles are trivial. The comments were better than the articles, but they are long gone. The independent and thetelegram have fired journalists for doing journalism, so most journalists just self censor.

      DW threatened people who made him look bad, like Brad Cabana. That was a warning to others that might expose nasty things.

      How was the public supposed to be informed? This blog is just noise in a sea of propaganda and lies. The official lies are repeated over and over again and there are many parallels to the techniques in George Orwell's dystopian novel, 1984. If it wasn't required reading when you went to school, it is worth reading.

      The average person is brainwashed and believes that government actually represents the public. The political parties are treated like sports team. Some back the red team, others back the blue team. Both teams are owned by the oligarchy and it makes no difference which one wins. The PCs started Muskrat Falls and the Liberals continued it without a hitch.

      Furthermore, anyone that goes against the official narrative of just about anything is now a "conspiracy theorist" and spreading "fake news" for which Google/Facebook now delete or make difficult to find. Was what Brad Cabana said about Danny Williams "hate speech" because anyone reading it might dislike Danny afterwards? Hate speech can now get you jail time in some jurisdictions.

      The attacks on "truthers" of any ilk make it difficult to "red pill" the public. (Matrix reference).

      We don't "allow" ourselves to be lied to - we have no way to stop it short of desperate measures, and things aren't physically rotten enough or desperate enough to do that - yet.

      Delete
    16. Anon: 10:03. So is this your explanation of why we elect politicians, particularly those that did us wrong, and as outlined by peng2 many times, and even including demogragrys. Surely, we know the difference, despite the propoganda that might be circulated daily. We all have a brain that does engage sometimes in knowing right from wrong, or is it is in our DNA and I am talking people in general and not just locals. So yes, I think it is in our political DNA to a large extent. Joe blow.

      Delete
    17. @joe, many older Newfoundlanders tell me "I was born a liberal and will die a liberal". My American friends are die hard republicans or democrats. Some love Trump, others would unfriend anyone that supports Trump. In religious areas in the USA, the first thing newcomers get asked is "what congregation do you belong to".

      There is a tribal desire and willingness to follow others built into the human brain. Those in power have harnessed and exploited this by pre-designing the tribes for us to protect those in power. We get to belong to a tribe or political party and feel we have some control over our destiny and sense of belonging yet seem oblivious to the manipulation.

      I also find that many professionals cannot bring themselves to believe that the institutions that are supposed to protect us (supreme court, military, government, police, AG, Citizens Rep, engineering associations etc.) are corrupted and serve a different master. I tried asking some professors with a structural engineering background about the free fall collapse of WTC7 and was met with rage. Rage that I would even consider asking such a thing. Perhaps it is that professionals owe their livelihood to the status quo and feel threatened by dissident thoughts.

      Delete
    18. Agree with you, but does it apply to every individual. I have voted for all stripes in my lifetime. I usually say I don't agree with political parties, just see which party agrees with me, and then I can vote for them. The weirdest thing in the USA is that Judges are appointed openly along party lines, my God unbiased justice of a nation along party lines. And in what we call the greatest democracy on earth. At least in Canada we are not that blatant, and I think in most cases judges are appointed on a basis that is non partisan. Because after all what's the difference in philosophy in the liberal party and the PC party. Nothing I can see , except for the people in the party. I remember a few years ago there was a study done where the basic philosophy, beliefs and espoused policies of what both parties stood for. And when people were asked what their person beliefs, etc. we're, and what party they voted for, more than 50 percent were voting for the wrong party according to their beliefs when compared to the policies and philosophy of the party. No correlation what so ever. So maybe it is they were born such and such or in their DNA. I have talked to some who go south for the winter. They go as opponents of trump, and come back converted and a great supporter of trump. Can't figure that one out, but really I can. Joe blow.

      Delete
    19. Any analysis outside orthodoxy is considered heresy, the more obvious the contradiction the greater the outrage.

      It was not only WTC7 but scores of demolition experts that called WTC 1&2 controlled demolitions.

      In this blog the more one exposes the contradictions and victim blaming/shaming of anon champions of the oligarchs, the more severe the censorship. I stand by my condemnation of the anon PENG2 troll.

      Why the blog administrator defends the paid troll of the oligarchs about the savage truth about an ANON troll is SAD!

      Delete
  9. Talk about Nero fiddling while Rome burned...

    https://bondpapers.blogspot.com/2019/08/captain-dildo-dwight-ball-and-new.html

    Dwight Ball... what colossal idiot.

    ReplyDelete
  10. BC is no model of proficiency when it comes to Resource Management and Regulation. Mt. Polley is but one colossal fail, due in part to self regulationitis. The certifying Engineer at the Polley fiasco may yet lose a licence to practice.

    Boyz again the nitpicking and personal jibes are spoiling the opportunity to move to better things for our struggling children. What role do we, the concerned citizens take on now?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/mount-polley-engineers-headed-for-disciplinary-hearings-1.4840866

      The engineers might have to pay $25,000 and lose their license. So, the work around (cynically) is to pay someone one million dollars to certify the North Spur. When it fails, they write a check for the PEGNL fine and comfortably retire.

      Delete
  11. For the amount of money wasted on th construction of Muskrat Falls I'm glad we had the Inquiry but it would be better if criminal charges could be brought against the perpetrators.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The place to start is DW and his henchmen. The board of Nalcor should be charged for gifting Ed Martin extra severance before resigning. Everyone in a position of authority that demanded redacting risks in reports should be charged.

      At this point, even if the North Spur fails and dozens die, I don't believe anyone will be jailed. The system is far too corrupt. The only people to serve jail time will be protestors.

      "Sitting in her home in Happy Valley-Goose Bay, Marjorie Flowers is blunt when asked about her ten days behind bars for protesting the development of the hydro electricity dam, being built at Muskrat Falls on the Churchill River." - CBC

      Delete
  12. And now, deniers have activated Elections Canada to rule against discussion of issues in an election year as playing partisan politics, which must be stamped out. Threat to Democracy to speak facts to lies, truth to power. What's going on?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. This is just general censorship and another move towards a totalitarian state. Muskrat Falls was political - this kind of thinking could force blogspot.com remove Uncle Gnarley before every election.

      You can bet it will be enforced in a very biased fashion -- Climate Change is BAD and here now (government approved narrative and ok to publish), but scientific discussions of positive feedback loops that illustrate the insanity of the proposed solutions to climate change will be verboten and considered political meddling or fake news.

      https://globalnews.ca/news/5781258/elections-canada-climate-change-partisan/

      Delete
    2. Of course as our democracy crumbles, Westphalian democracy is replaced with inverted totalitarianism. You can keep your meaningless empty rituals like voting every four years while trade deals give more and more power to transnational corporations eroding labour unions, environmental protection and free speech.

      Get ready for the censorship from the state wanting to maintain the illusion of democracy and the censorship of dangerous ideas by the intelligentsia. The truth becomes more and more dangerous and requires more and more oppression.

      Delete
    3. Attended this local Town Hall in Cranbrook;

      https://mailchi.mp/parl/monthly-update-from-mp-wayne-stetski-gz6bfzs35u-1989241?e=d786b400f1

      Is your own MP in spite of Elections Canada deniers ruling, prepared to get communities ready for the change necessary to transition from fossil fuels?

      Progress and change are very slow these days.

      Delete
  13. https://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2019/08/16/kashmir-the-fight-for-the-high-ground-has-started/

    Read this and try not to panic

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Maybe in hindsight, it was good that Justin's trip to India went poorly with the Hindu Leader. I still remember the 1947 world events. Inevitably things go bad with ethnic diversification and we all become uncivil. Bernier stirring the pot this AM about "Islamists "screwing with the elections

      Delete
  14. Peng2, re your 19 August 2019 at 18:50 commentary concerning 1927, there is a good discussion about the Labrador/Quebec border issue in 'Brinco the story of Churchill Falls' by Philip Smith. It covers the many discussions of politicians from Quebec and NL and purchase and sale offers over Labrador that took place over the years. It is also a good reference on the history of the upper CF and the negotiations over the now infamous contract. Of course HQ does not agree that it is a representation of the true facts of the CF story. I think 2041 will be an important date for both provinces in terms of any future power purchase agreements at upper CF. Discussions should indeed start early.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Philip Smith implies that NL (Smallwood) was continiously involved in the negociations... Wow!

      When we know BRINCO was the sole owner of the Churchill water rights for 99 years - obtained for peanuts from NL... And that NL had no financial stakes whatsoever in those negociations. (And that was the whole point; NL could not afford any risks in this huge project)

      It was an interesting read nevertheless.

      ---------------------

      The historic events leading to the 1969 UC contract are well explained in the different court decisions. Maybe I could make a synopsis?

      Somehow, Philip Smith's romantic / Lunatic version were never presented in court by Nalcor's lawyers...

      Delete
    2. Ex @ 17:50:

      Maybe an interesting hypothetical discussion would be HQ refused to step in what would have happened - would another party have stepped up and negotiated transmission passage via Quebec or went after the Anglo-Saxon route in 1969?

      Anyway, I stand firmly in the camp that UC was good for NL and Quebec - we got something for nothing and HQ took the risk. a lot of NLer's were/are jaded by UC and still encourage the boogey man myth - end result was we spent our money on an ill conceived piece of work at MF (even after 40yrs of it being deemed uneconomical), and we were too arrogant to accept how much trouble we were really in.

      PENG2

      Delete
    3. PENG2:

      I'm not sure who would have financed UC if HQ had refused to step in (and went ahead with James Bay earlier instead, plus cascading forward all the other projects waiting in the "pipeline").

      Just to bring this remote power to market was quite an expensive/complex undertaking. Not sure either if someone would have used the 735KW technology - pretty much experimental at the time.

      Finally Ontario and Consolidated Edison firmly believed that Nuclear was going to be much cheaper, and that costs would get even lower over time. (Were they ever wrong)

      I found this interesting reference:

      "In a 1977 interview with CBC Radio, Philip Smith, Joe Smallwood, John Crosbie, and an unidentified individual discussed the controversy over the price Hydro-Quebec pays for electricity from Churchill Falls.  (--> BTW, Smallwood says here he was NOT involved in the price negociation!!! <--)

      It's worth noting that Philip Smith (yes, that same conspiracy writer...) estimates the cost to Hydro-Quebec at about $8.00 per MWH since HQ assumed the cost of the transmission facilities for the power. 

      That is still an absurdly low price compared to $25 to $30 a megawatt hour electricity wholesales for these days in New England. 

      But in the 1960s,  Consolidated Edison was only offering $5.00 per MWH. 

      That HQ cost is what BRINCO would have had to do in order to get power to New England without Hydro-Quebec in the 1960s"

      Delete
    4. Oops, here's the CBC link:

      https://www.cbc.ca/archives/entry/hydroelectricity-joey-smallwood-on-churchill-falls

      Delete
  15. Oil Spill. Life on the North Saskatchewan won't be the same;

    https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/entry/bonterra-oil-spill-alberta_ca_5d5adc4ee4b04e1e14de824a?utm_hp_ref=ca-homepage

    How's the cleanup at Hibernia coming?

    ReplyDelete
  16. "The battery systems will help the municipal utilities reduce the consumption peaks that drive monthly transmission costs and an annual capacity charge. By predicting peaks and discharging at the right time, the storage plants save money for utility customers."

    https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/new-englands-municipal-utilities-get-a-taste-for-battery-storage

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Winston / Bruno have a look at this research paper out of China https://www.nature.com/articles/s41560-019-0441-z.epdf

      From the abstract: 'We reveal that all of these cities can achieve—without subsidies—solar PV electricity prices lower than grid-supplied prices, and around 22% of the cities’ solar generation electricity prices can compete with desulfurized coal benchmark electricity prices.'

      Small, low output, hydro mega projects in remote locations like Muskrat Falls are obsolete and in this case, insane. The centralized production of power is a relic of the past.

      Distributed systems with solar electric panels, wind, batteries, peaking plants and consumer demand management are the future. Legacy central plants (like hydro) are still useful, but once they are decommissioned or fail they won't be replaced.

      I think the focus will shift away from incentive programs to add solar capacity and towards programs to integrate the new components (solar panels, batteries, wind turbines, electric car charging) and new policies (variable rates, demand management) into a robust public energy grid.

      To bad we don't have a utility company or PUB to make this happen.

      Delete
    2. You are spot on anon. Ironically it is the economics that drives the transformation to a smart grid/integrated renewables/battery storage. As you point out NLHydro has not even nascent concern or understanding of the paradigm shift. Meathead Stan looks forward to Gull Island (he just wants to get 'er done) no need for looking into future production/consumption even for promoting EV subsidies to mop up the MF surplus.

      In the meantime wind/batteries can provide stable energy for peaking but again blockhead Stan only has one mantra "get 'er done".

      Delete
  17. " A growing number of markets are turning to storage systems to meet their peak load demand, which is typically used for just a couple of hours per day, over conventionally supplied fossil fuel peaker plants. And this is what the battery energy storage executives are calling the big paradigm shift."

    https://www.pv-magazine-australia.com/2019/08/19/long-read-the-dawn-of-megastorage/

    ReplyDelete
  18. WA @ 22:49:

    You are a bit off in the rate of acute failures - there was nothing quoting a 2 in 10yr acute failure, just that recent history was indicating a 2 in 10yr failure rate (ie related to both acute and creep causes).

    I think the other reason where you make a stretch is that you don't seem to recognize that the facility was operated beyond design for a number of years and had shown indicators of failing - granted the eventual breech was acute. Personally, I would lay more blame for this occurrence on operations than the design or geotechnical conditions(granted there were some issues related to geotech here, not unlike MF).

    Finally for me - man-made or natural deposit I don't see a big design implication IF the required geotechnical investigation are completed - geotechnical design typically used a maximum phi of 0.45 (where as products with better QC like steel and concrete use 0.65 - 0.85) for this reason.

    Another point I will drop is that Gullbridge is close to Mt Polly as to fail causation, and Buchans would have been if remedial work wasn't completed about 10yrs ago - not sure I ever heard much on either of those in our media, maybe not cliché enough?

    PENG2

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes, ok, a projected 2 in 10 all failure rate , so a poor outlook from present methods. I read this one late one night with eyes blurred when half way through, so was uncertain.
      Yes I was aware of historical problems but the final was acute, and at a place of inferior natural foundation lust 30 feet deep, if I recall. Also a CBC piece quoted a 40 expereinced geotechnical dam expert fom the USA saying this defective area was known originally, but was not investigated or allowance made for the design and construction, if i recall correctly. This seems to parallel our concerns for MFs.
      You qualify that no big difference in man made or natural with a big "IF".
      You could have said the "big difference I fear living down stream of MFs is that I am NOT assured that the required geotechnical investigations were done on the natural North Spur dam". That is your opinion unchanged, right?
      Winston

      Delete
    2. Anyone wanting to know the impoundment elevation, Google: Churchill river MAE, and this this will show various water level stations, about half way down you will find one title " Churchill river above upper Muskrat Falls -030E001. This shows a current elevation of 32 m, and appears to be holding for the last 3 days, and seems to be as I expected, to increase over 2 days and hold and watch for 4 days, then repeat.
      39m being the final elevation, and now at 32, so 7 meters (so another 23 feet to rise)
      If an acute failure, we might ask after, what was the straw that broke the camels back?
      PENG2, does your concern heighten with increasing water elevation, force and pressure, or little concern with reaching that final elevation without an acute failure?
      Winston

      Delete
    3. Winston's link is here:

      https://www.mae.gov.nl.ca/wrmd/ADRS/v6/Template_Station.asp?station=03OE001

      Scroll down half way to see the graph of Churchill River above Muskrat Falls. It is currently at the half way mark of the filling.

      Delete
  19. https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/insolvency-al-antle-1.5253183

    Now the, here is the start of the madness,
    People wont be able to pay their light snd power bills if they can’t pay their debts. They won’t have light and power bills if they don’t have houses or live on welfare In Mississauga or Galt in relatives basements.

    And still no plan!
    And still no one, even though staring into the abyss, has anything to contribute to a plan.

    It isn’t looking good, eh, Levy Payer might be right, the exodus to higher financial ground is started.
    Woe be unto is seniors and sick who don’t have a run away option.

    I am getting my affairs in order and living as close to the bone as I can, but when the bill doubles, by rate or by tax I hope I can stay above water.

    Come on, anybody, we need saving. SOS. Mayday. Panpanpan.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. People are using their home credit lines to pay off their credit cards and then using the credit cards again. I believe the problem is low and sporadic incomes coupled with ever increasing prices for everything. There just isn't enough money to go around, so when important things come up (say your car muffler falls off), it ends up on the credit card. Increased taxes or power rates will only make this worse and increase the bankruptcy rate.

      Delete
    2. You are right Tor. The financial dam is leaking, is showing signs of failure and 22 cent power (or crumbling infrastructure as result of rate stabilization) will rupture the dam.

      Run for high ground while you can. For symptomatic relief in the short term I suggest Aurora Cannabis Inc. (ACB).

      Delete
    3. Bruno, should you be giving unsolicited medical advise?
      On UG's last piece you recommended I should get a new evaluation for my mental health issues, as you suggested that having obsessional traits was not a good diagnosis, implyig something more serious, and that my medication was inappropriate.
      I responded listing my medication as of Feb 2018, but you made no reply on that. I thought cannabis might be beneficial.
      Some anonymous person then wrote a long piece to /about you, all in capital letters;in essence that you are a vile person. mentally ill, and that a doctor might be able to help you, and that you should be banned from UG.
      You responded to say/ suggest I was the author of that.
      Your assumption is FALSE. I did not send that. A long time ago when you disappeared from UG for months, twice I suggested you should be commenting here. I had assumed you were being censored as VOCM had done. I have never called for you to be censored, but disagree with some of your comments,most often on technical issues, and your responses , which I consider sometimes abusive or borderline, in my opinion. Vile, meaning evil, I have not assigned to your character at any time, and again, that posting against you was not by me nor anybody known to me. I thought who ever did post it would later post to say it was not me. As they didn't, it suggests maybe it was intentional that you would be gullible to think it was me, and attack me as you did.
      I say let the comments stand, but they were not by me. I ask you apologise.
      As you recommend a particular brand of cannabis for Tor, why did you not suggest it for me? Do you think my request to a doctor for medical grade cannabis was successful, or unsuitable for my illness? And do you speak from experience when making recommendations?
      Winston Adams

      Delete
    4. You are paranoid and if you look at the time stamp you will see I was responding to the anon troll (Etienne is my best guess) that wrote that.

      Again for your paranoia I suggest Aurora Cannabis Inc. (ACB)

      PS. This is not medical advice but a helpful legal suggestion as diversion from said paranoia.


      Delete
    5. PS. You can purchase medical grade pot at your government sanctioned outlet without prescription. White Widow is a good place to start or perhaps Hawaiian Snow is more to your liking.

      Delete
    6. As seniors, we were lucky enough to move to a walkable neighbourhood, rent a 2 bedroom apt. for $800/mo including heat, power bill about $35/mo, gave up the car, etc. OAS, CPP, plus luckily continuing good health, allow us to manage our cash flow, and slowly work away at the cursed credit card balance. Clean out closets, give away the stuff, eat good food, stay off drugs, (if you can), walk a lot, talk to the neighbours, help rebuild the neighbourhood community. Love your kids. Lucky in BC.

      Delete
    7. Bruno, you harp on your truthfulness:You falsely claim you were responding to the anon troll Etienne is your best guess.

      These comments from a tread about the Polly dam failure, your initial comment on Aug 6 I think, and my response that you missed the key elements.
      Then the comments by UNKNOWN on Aug 9 @ 18:40, all in capitals against you, and your response to that of Aug 10 @ 17;04 saying:
      " Thanks for the advise Winston"
      Now you say look at the time stamp, you were responding to the anon troll , probably Etienne. you identified me by name , "Winston", not Etienne.
      Please explain if your screen shows different from mine.
      And you now diagnosis me with paranoia. The doctors missed that, but you may have more knowledge on that, I wonder.
      Explain the false information where you lay blame with Ethiene, I do not see it, so I am blind too? That is my wife's condition, not mine. Although sometimes my wife tells me I a blind, as she finds things I cannot.
      Winston

      Delete
  20. Hank Williams, (I saw the light), touched down in Longview, AB;

    https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/eden-valley-reserve-solar-power-1.5254226

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Take Hank both literally and figuratively in this ditty.

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LB-B_SpiF9Q

      I wandered so aimless life filed with sin
      I wouldn't let my dear savior in
      Then Jesus came like a stranger in the night
      Praise the lord I saw the light.
      I saw the light I saw the light
      No more darkness no more night
      Now I'm so happy no sorrow in sight
      Praise the lord I saw the light.
      Just like a blind man I wandered along
      Worries and fears I claimed for my own
      Then like the blind man that god gave back his sight
      Praise the lord I saw the light.
      I was a fool to wander and astray
      Straight is the gate and narrow the way
      Now I have traded the wrong for the right
      Praise the lord I saw the light.

      Delete
    2. Yes Robert, Hank was very talented, but a drug problem, a drunk mostly and hard to live with, and died in the back of his car at age 29. Would Danny be related I wonder, both being Williams. If only Danny could have seen the Light, or even Alteen of Nfld Light and Power.
      Now Bruno says take the words literally and figuratively, implying he is of the Christian faith?
      If I recall correctly Bruno in early postings says he believes in Karma, what goes around comes around. Is that Buddda teaching, I'm not sure?
      Now too I wonder if this Aurora Cannibis brand that Bruno promotes would make you see imaginary lights, not the Light of Jesus say?
      Aurora as you probably know is the Northern lights, from the solar discharge particles hitting our ionosphere. In the past I mentioned this as a potential risk to MFs operations.
      Maybe this cannibis brand simulates that, Bruno should know, and maybe acts as a relaxant or something?
      Problem is one day you might be Christian, another day believing in Karma, another day believing in Trunmpie, and wanting all Jews to be Republicians, or else they are not loyal?
      I have to be careful taking Bruno's medical or legal advise, but still, I'm open minded, to his ideas, a little.....very little.
      Winston

      Delete
    3. Jesus' light not imaginary? Methinks you could use some Mellow Yello for that condition. Ask for it by name at your favourite dispensary. Now that it is legal is the plant against gods rule?

      Delete
    4. You tell me Bruno, Hank says he saw the light of Jesus, and you say take his words literally and figuratively, So what do you mean?
      Hank needed Mellow Yello?
      Are you asking if the plant (cannabis) is against gods rule, now it is legal? I think Lobster was against gods rule, and the meat of the pig, not sure if god wrote or spoke as to the weed?
      So I eat lobster in season, pork at times, and as to the weed, I consulted a doctor for an opinion, and she never mentioned seeing imaginary lights. Do you think she recommended it at all?
      Winston

      Delete
    5. You declined to answer. Is pot against god's laws now that it is not legally sanctioned.

      Did your lobster have cloven hoofs? You had wild prohibitions. I am going to a Catholic hell for eating meat on Friday when I was 11. The result was rejection of Catholicism and a heathen life of sex, drugs and rock and roll. Ever heard of Rochdale College if not google it? I lived there while earning enough on Toronto's streets to move to Cape Breton. I was riding the last range for cowboys in North America, now sadly closed.

      Delete
    6. You cleverly avoid the question of falsely accusing me "Thanks for the advise Winston" Answer that.
      You confuse the cloven hoof with shellfish prohibition.
      If you were Nfld Catholic you have have seal seal meat on Friday, as it is fish, when need be, didn't you know?
      We know you moved to Cape Breton for cheap coal to stay warm.
      Your life of sex, drugs,rock and roll may be imaginary.But if so, which was most satisfying? Did you eventually see the Light like Hank?
      I once rode the freight train form Trenton to Winsor, for the adventure,but gave up cowboy toys at about age 10.
      Is pot, (meaning weed), against god's laws? If it leads to making false statements, than yes, unless the god in question approves of lies. That other type, the piss pot is fine, for those going off grid, with little PV solar or renewables. Of the 613 laws of god,surely one should cover the question of pot. I suggest you look it up, that being before Google, and I do not guarantee it as accurate. My analysis on the weed pot is sketchy, as compared to minisplits, so reluctant to state god's intent on that. An Aurora brand sound awesome, and maybe gives visions of batteries and lights aglow, and salvation?
      32 meters and rising! The spur, will she hold?
      Winston

      Delete
    7. Give it up,for Christ's sake,if you believe in him.

      Delete
    8. Winston, Bruno has met his match. Yours and his "tit for tat" brings a smile to my face.
      Bruno, you're fighting a losing battle. LOL

      Delete
  21. On pot look for guidance from Leviticus 4:20

    It was a close contest between the sex and drugs. I have yet to see the light despite being clinically dead for 12 minutes post surgery when my heart refused to restart. The Aurora was the best I could do. Try them out.

    ReplyDelete
  22. Watching the Ethics Committee hearings today, a very sad day for Canadians to be sure. Those in NL and elsewhere, who gave their support to elect a majority Liberal administration, now must ask their own conscience; how can one continue to support such unethical and corrupt people in government?

    Another ditty from my own Reserve Military days; "My eyes are dim, I cannot see, I have not brought my specs with me..." Herb Pottle, wrote a book on the Smallwood era; "Dawn without Light." Even Bruno with the words from Hank Williams song, (Winston, some of the wisest people I have known had drinking problems), Let there be Light!

    ReplyDelete
  23. If Lisa Raitt was running in our Columbia Riding, irrespective of which Party she represented, I would have to give her deep consideration come election time. At the Justice Committee and today's Ethics Committee hearings, she displayed a very conscientious approach in an effort to bring some light to the terrible SNC-Lavalin scandal. Good on you Lisa, Charlie, Peter, and others in your failed attempt to bring truth to power.

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  24. If Markopolis is correct and GE has 4 months before they go bust the MF software may be a HUGE issue.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MGvsXPY26KI

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It could be a real mess from a control software point of view. If during a bankruptcy GE loses a few good mathematicians / engineers that are designing the power electronics control mechanisms and that will be end of bug fixing. Nalcor might even have to switch to a different manufacturer at great cost. This isn't business programming -- it is hard core electrical engineering and advanced mathematics.

      Delete
    2. The article below states that GE Power has a $92 billion dollar backlog so they aren't delivering or completing projects fast enough, or sold projects that were beyond their capabilities. I can see GE being forced to sell it off and many of its customers being stranded.

      Also "This month, Fitch Ratings shifted to a negative outlook for its credit rating on GE citing power’s poor outlook and a need to cut costs, improve project completion and address quality issues. "

      https://www.wsj.com/articles/ge-power-has-a-92-billion-backlog-for-new-boss-thats-a-problem-11550068479

      Delete
  25. https://thetyee.ca/Opinion/2019/08/21/Green-New-Deal-Battles/?utm_source=national&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=220819

    Another truth and why we and our political leaders act do stupidly.

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    Replies
    1. I rarely disagree with Andrew Nikiforuk's analysis but this time I do.

      I am clearly in the GND Green New Deal camp but I think we can save ourselves with an all out effort, A global Marshal Plan to do two things.

      1.Use aggressive DSM to cut global energy use by that 30% for a 30-per-cent drop in energy consumption.
      2.Now that renewables Wind/sun/batteries are cheaper than fossil the paradigm changes. A combination of wind/sun/batteries appropriate to location can be transferred anywhere in the developing world. No need for long expensive delivery systems. The energy can be produced close to the need to avoid the fatal "Muskrat Falls" syndrome.

      It is also a myth that there needs to be an economic disruption. The new energy paradigm will produce more jobs than dirty oil/coal/gas extraction.

      Delete
  26. Bruno: To repeat myself, EVERY comment I have left here was signed "Etienne". That's E-T-I-E-N-N-E. Any anonymous comment here is, by definition, not from me.

    ReplyDelete
  27. Impoundment continues today, now about 1 ft more of 3 ft rise over 2 days. 32.3 m and rising.
    Anyone wants to state their expected risk of acute failure before reaching 39m?
    Winston Adams

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    Replies
    1. In my estimation,if it survives the 37.5 meter mark it should be good.

      Delete
    2. What are your reasons, anon, for that conclusion?
      Winston

      Delete
    3. Here is the link again for the filling chart https://www.mae.gov.nl.ca/wrmd/ADRS/v6/Template_Station.asp?station=03OE001

      Once it is full, it will be heavily loaded and ripe for a disturbance. I am hoping it will fail while filling while everyone is on-guard.

      Just because it holds doesn't mean it is safe. It is like putting a 600 pound load on a 300 pound ladder. There is no safety margin -- add some vibration from any source, and it will fail catastrophically. Maybe we should post signs "Vibration Free Zone" and "the following activities are banned: heavy trucks, tracked vehicles, fracking, land slides, earthquakes, torrential rains, blasting, unbalanced turbines, input gate slamming ..." and "no human activities are permitted below the dam area" along with a map that includes the projected flood area when it fails. I'd also add a ten foot fence with barbed wire that extended many kilometers.

      We need a good name for the danger zone. "The Daniel E Williams Quick Clay Dam" and the "Narcissistic Mud flow Danger Zone".

      Delete
  28. 72,000 forest fires in Brazil so far this year, up 84 % from last year. Many are in the Brazil rain forest. This area supplies 20% of the worlds oxygen. Macron of France wants it a top issue at the G7. Brazil's son calls Macron an idiot on his tweet. Brazil intentionally setting fires for more farmland for beef production. Also this year many fires are burning in the Arctic regions, Alaska, Greenland, Nordic, Siberia etc.
    She gone b'ys, she gone. And our oil spills tripled.

    Bernie Sanders announces 16.3 TRILLION pledge to fight the climate crisis, if he is president.
    Locally Nlfd Power has one EV, so doing their big, big time.
    The Kennel Dildo run was equal to 11 million in advertising and reached 45 million Americans says our tourism minister. Selling sex is big business in Canada's sexually happiest province, noted by MacLeans decades ago. Mitchelmore is hoping for more such innovative ideas.What can outdo Dildo?
    WA

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  29. Ho by's what going ons in "in the last days". Yes you were right Winston, I was thinking of setting up, high level meetings, with trumpie a few years ago, about selling ourselves to the USA, or joining, or where ever the talks went with a 15$ billion price tag. And the middle man was supposed to be Anthony Scaramucci, or The Mouch, as we use to call him. But it didn't really get off the ground for 2 reasons: when trumpie mocked a disabled reporter, and then denied it after 50 million watch it on tv, I said no I can't do business with such a dishonest president. And the second reason was, The Mouch only lasted 11 days in the WH before trumpie fired him. So that ended that. But trumpie got wind of the possible talks, and decided one better, he would buy Greenland. He knew the Greenland glaciers were melting fast, but he denied it, and one day he would build beautiful beachside property on the sandy shores of Greenland, as Mariolago would be under water anyway. That was his plan. But the Danish president foiled it by calling it absurd. And trumpie called her nasty, which is what he does to pretty ladies when they rejects him. So that ended that. After that, he turned to the Jews and Isreal and proclaimed himself King David, and he was "The Chosen One" to take on the Chineese in a trade war. Even the Bible is not that far out, well, except In The Last Days. So, in the last couple of weeks The Mouch has broken completely with trumpie, and says he is completely off his rocker, and Trumpies days are numbered, as he is mounting a compaign to get a good GOP son to run against him in 2020. And The Mouch says he may run himself. Hear, hear, The Mouch for president. And all may not be lost yet, as I may be able to get the high level meetings back on track with The Mouch, and sell us for more than we are worth. I say Kimmel for his running mate, as VP, but he can also wear the double crown as honnnary mayor of Dildo. Things are looking up by's, she's not all gone yet. Stranger things are happening says Joe blow, average Joe, AJ.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. A good summary of this lead up to the Last days, Joe. The Book of Revelation lays it out, as we are now starting to see it unfold. I think that was by John the Apostle, from a Vision. Whether he used the Aurora brand pot that Bruno promotes, but likely not, but was from seeing the Light, like Hank Williams. Bruno's Vision is a warm and fussy one, where John's is dark, as we see with Trumpie, in real time now.
      Yes Trumpie thinks he can escape the rising waters that will engulf his Florida mansion, and plans on owning nearly half of the world's fresh water on Greenland.
      The Mouch is a turncoat. He agreed with only 90% of Trumpie's BS, so he had to turn..

      Now Kimmel said of his opponent Matt Damon, "don't let a dildo run Dildo". That knocked Matt out completely.
      I say "ASK NOT if a dildo should run Dildo"
      I say " ASK if dickheads should run our government? Should dickheads run our university? Should dickheads appoint our judges? Should dickheads run our power companies, and our PUB and appoint our consumer advocate? Should dickheads run our media?
      I say " Get rid of the dickheads, and let the dildos can stay in Dildo.
      Winston Adams

      Delete
  30. Domestic hot water: safely and efficiency.
    My cottage electric hot water tank packed it it. As usual, a galvanized nipple rusted and leaked. In Logy Bay area I get 25 years on a tank, At Bishop's Cove about 7 years. Water quality is likely the difference.
    The instructions say WARNING: The higher the temperature setting, the greater the risk of scalding. Hot water can cause third degree burns in under 1 second at 160F, 6 seconds at 140 F, and 30 seconds at 130 F.
    (For comparison, I note that bathwater is about 105F, and upper bearable
    hot bath is about 110F)
    The instructions goes on to say "In households where there are children, physically challenged individuals, or elderly persons, mixing valves for point of use are necessary as means of reducing the scalding potential of hot water.
    The factory (in this case Giant Brand) presets the temperature. If shipping to the USA it is set at 125F (52C), and if to Canada, it is set at 140F (60 C).

    When installed and heated up, I found it impossible to hold your hand under the water for more than one second, this being the time for the reflex action. I checked the setting, and as expected is 140F. It took 3 attempts at setting the temperature lower, so that even then, one can stand only 3 seconds of the hot water, although a burn does not occur. The final setting to get this was at 124F. This gave a range of 122 to 126 actual water temperature, as the thermostat seems to have an accuracy of plus/ minus 2 F.
    The installer did not adjust this, and I doubt if any do. Scalding potential at a 125 F setting, the American standard, would take about 45 seconds, whereas settings for in Canada, at 140F, it would be about 6 seconds.
    The tank uses about 40 watts standby heatloss, so the lower temperature would decrease this by 5 or 10 watts, not much saving there. But hot water in pipes results in about 30% of the hot water heat loss, so this would be significant savings, especially in summer, at a 125 F setting.
    Legionaire bacteria, which causes lethal pneumonia,( when breathed deep into the lungs, but safe to drink the bacteria) is present in ground water and killed by hot temperature in a tank. Rapid increase in these bacteria happens when about 70-90F, but decreased at hotter temperatures. They cannot survive above 122 F. So the Amercian 125 F is safe for that also.
    Conclusion :125 F helps prevent scalding, reduces energy use, and is bacteria safe. But it reduces revenue for the power companies.
    Why do the Scallywags running Take Charge not promote the 125 F setting as a tip for their customers?
    Winston Adams

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Some unsolicited advice:

      1) Plastic (e.g. Rheem Marathon) and stainless steel tanks, both with stainless elements are available in Newfoundland. These will last you your lifetime. They are about $800 to $1000 and may save you a few basement floods.

      2) Install a tempering valve (or mixing valve) at the tank. This way you can have it hot enough in the tank to kill bacteria and amoeba and then cool the hot water down as it leaves the tank. It is a mechanical thermostatic device that allow some cold to mix with the hot. You can get them with pex fittings and they are easy to set up.

      The bacteria thing is not a problem if you use oil/gas because those tanks have a kill zone when the flames are burning.

      Delete
  31. Stan is experiencing delays in commissioning the Transmission Link to the Island;

    https://www.thetelegram.com/news/regional/labrador-island-link-wont-be-ready-for-start-of-winter-344016/

    Winston, how are heatpump installations doing?

    Wood stoves must be selling out, and stockpiled birch must be fetching a fair price.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. No worries about selling out of heat pumps - the world is a huge place and we are but half a million people. I can see seasoned wood being sold out ... the population is most dense on the Avalon Peninsula and that area either never had good forests, or they were cut generations ago and never recovered. Good birch is a few hundred kilometers away.

      Delete
    2. Not surprised about the software delay, and that poor power reliability was a key problem with the scheme, but ignored until recently. Goes to show Stan was not a straight shooter to say Oct 31, now moved to Jan 2020, so this gives Leblanc an escape hatch on that. One of his "experts" said he never knew reliability of a transmission line to be a problem, which is utter bullshit.
      Getting ready for lawsuits, giving the contractors 6 more months to shit or get off the pot as to a solution. January is a bad time for testing/commissioning, under winter conditions, and could trigger a grid collapse.
      So the plan now is to send MFs power west, and hope HQ agrees to take some. Good news likley is that it delays shock rates for the island a little longer ?Bad news is that we again depend on Holyrood . How fast can Elon Musk get a few giant Bruno batteries set up?
      As to heatpumos, if memory serves, in 2012, my analysis, published with the Telegram suggested ramping up minisplits to about 13,000 per year, so 130,000 over 10 years, boosted by incentives.
      Last year, without incentives, our small contractors did an excellent job of installing 12,000, and this frightens the power companies as to revenue loss. Whether that will level off, decline, or increase, time will tell.
      Many heatpumps reduces the burden on Holyrood, and reduces fuel use, and could make Bruno battery last 3 times longer, (cost is an issue).Where our wind turbines? Forgot, Hatch was asked to edit their recommendations, to squash that, and LeBlanck turned a blind eye.
      The small business association, last week, wanted input into PUB deliberations, but Ball said no. In NS they had such representation, for input on countering high power rates. Whatever NS does, we do the opposite, because we have dickheads in control. We should a dickhead award yearly. Maybe the Uncle can set it up?.
      Winston Adams

      Delete
    3. So what is the 5yr Budget for upgrades at Holyrood?
      How many solar panels with hot water collection to offset oil burn?
      How many windmills to supplement more expensive hydro?
      Tor, give me your 20yr plan!:-)

      Delete
    4. "“While our contractor, GE, has faced challenges in the development of the required software, we are continuing to assist them in being successful in the development and integration of the bi-pole software that is required to safely and reliably operate the Labrador-Island Link,” stated a spokeswoman for Nalcor Energy,"

      Nalcor Bozo's assisting GE, holy shit it is worst than I thought! GE was supposed to have the expertise to integrate MF and LIL.

      Blockhead Stan is sticking to the political agenda. There will be no updates to cost increases until after the next election. He will admit no cost increases no matter how bizzare it gets the next four months.

      Delete
    5. Check back Bruno on integration, I wondered if it was ever a part of the Nalcor specifications or realised after the fact, so maybe GE had no original requirement to do this complex integration? Were simulations done by consultants ever before sanction that all this would work ok? Or push ahead and worry after, like too with the North Spur problem.
      So they will help GE? at some point they must allow them to move from theory and software design to "let's try it "......so to that extent Nalcor, Nfld Hydro and Nfld power must be on guard for possible mishap and failure.....in January month! Houston....we may then have a problem?
      Winston

      Delete
  32. No one on Ug willing to state their estimate of acute complete North Spur failure, not even PENG2, so I will say this:
    Risk of such failure is 20 %, so 80 % no such failure.
    If no failure, then risk of such failure within 1st year, 10 %, 90 % no such failure.
    If no such failure, then risk within 5 years is 5 % , so 95 % no such failure,
    Beyond 5 years risk stays at 5 %, no failure 95 %
    Winston Adams

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    Replies
    1. Winston, my muteness on the subject is that there is 100% no endangerment to me personally, with the expected slow slippage failure of the glacial clay underbed at the Spur. I will be long gone, and my ashes enriched compost heap will be producing food supply to the neighbourhood.

      Delete
    2. Beware Robert Winston has his thermometer and slide rule whirling. Forget that it is pressure PLUS VIBRATION that is the risk. Plus quick clay fails when enough salt is washed out of the spur material. WA thermometer has it all worked out!

      Delete
    3. In other words over time things do NOT remain the same so no amount of any whirling slide rule dirvish amounts to a hill of magic beans.

      Without a detailed exam of the spur using appropriate methodologies one might be able to determine LIKELY fault zones but a definitive temporal assessment based on a whirling thermometers and slide rules is worth doodly squat!

      Delete
    4. So ...Bruno, you go off on a tangent, as to the cause of am acute failure, not the risk.
      Call the risk a P factor
      The pressure, a force , the F factor
      The vibration the V factor,
      The salt , the S factor
      The increased temperature of the soil and moisture might reduce the salt content more, so call it the T factor. As this is a very slow effect it is probably the least critical of the factors. I did not calibrate my thermometer, nor lubricate my slide rule to arrive at the numbers.
      Rather than go off on a tangents, what is your P factor, Bruno? P1 being 1 % safe, P100 absolute safe as Stan stated?
      Winston

      Delete
    5. Interesting that you agree with and copy PENG2 who stated your opinion of @ 15;39, and which is largely valid, but does not exclude making an opinion as to risk, based on one's experience and knowledge and even common sense.So disagree it is worth doodly squat. If I am off base, then in which direction? Be brave Bruno, don't be a bully and attack the messanger. State the P risk factor.
      Winston

      Delete
    6. yOU HAVE LOST IT WHIrLING YOUR DERVISH WITH THAT THERMOMETER. You have not a clue and again I was drawn into your trolling nonsense. Anyone taking you seriously now is as lost as you are.

      What is your S Factor?? Sanity Quotient.

      Delete
    7. Drop the capitals, Bruno, least you blow a gasket. With many capitals you imitate the person who called you vile, and then blamed me,then lied as to that, and then blame Eteinne.
      Nevertheless you cleverly ask a good questions while avoiding my question. The risk factor of failure you are afraid to say lest you be wrong, which is impossible, right?
      My sanity factor ebbs and flows. By the notion of trying to teach you some basic analysis or even common sense opinions, I keep failing, but keep trying, by definition I must have a very low S factor, or else have the patience of Job. You must conclude it is a low S factor, to again attack and not be civil.
      So i turn the other cheek, once more. I am reluctant to question your S factor without more insight, as you give only snippets.
      You promote Aurora pot, but what dosage?
      If you test your pee, like me, what else might be there? I give you my result, but you are not so transparent. You are like lawyers Ralph and Coffey and Simmons, wanting secrecy, not openness and transparency. I am more like Norway, but you more like the colonials Brits, i just wonder?
      Afraid to state your opinion of the Spur risk factor! Speaking truth to power? You are tongue tied it seems. Be a man, not a mouse, at least squeak up, say the number. Did you not once say you could just look at the terrain there and say it would fail? Now you fear otherwise?
      Winston

      Delete
    8. The CBC piece on Parsons: as to failure to do the wet capping. Parsons says last year it was a busy summer, much important things going on, like the cannabis legislation. Hmmmmmm, Aurora pot etc more important than the wet capping,... not sure if even Bruno would swallow or puff on that excuse. Parsons is upset that Ches is calling for an investigation, as Parson was minister at the time. Parsons says Ches is just "throwing mud" at him. Is this just plain mud or quick clay variety?
      Can the mud stick, and make our justice minister unstable? Imagine the mud slinging if the Spur fails. All MHAs will take a chartered flight out of the province, running like Squires after the riot in 1932.
      Pray that she holds, I hope so, but hope is not engineering best practice.
      Winston


      Delete
    9. Nalcor has successfully raised the reservoir level another 1 meter. Likely they'll hold there for 4 more days and check conditions. Elevation rose from 32 to 33m, so 6 more meters to go, another 19.5 ft. Many more of those 4 x 4 diesels truck equivalent, mentioned by Jim Gordon, pushing pounds of pressure on the North Spur, about 690 million lbs when at 39m.
      Of course physicist Bruno dismissed that estimate of Gordon's. Inconsistent with physics said Bruno, agreeing with some anonymous person who commented. Of course "pounds" can be used for both mass and force under the British system. I and PENG2 did not dispute the figure used by Gordon, but we are of the "lead ring" variety engineer, unable to do analysis says Bruno, who is now an authority on engineering of all sorts, and also on physics. He learned all this from his 2 week fishery course 25 years ago, the details he keeps secret.
      Further, he switches his main concern of failure to the concrete North dam instead. I call on Bruno to apologise to Gordon and also to PENG2. He can hold on his apology to me, and cover them later on for several due, all in one swoop, once he reflects and sees his errors.
      Meanwhile I await Bruno's risk of failure guess for the North Spur.
      Maybe he has flipped and now thinks it is perfectly safe, as Stan says, so o risk of failure. His silence on the North Spur is deafening. Has Nalcor hired him?
      Winston

      Delete
    10. Is the North Spur at risk from earthquakes?
      The earthquake map of canada shows thousands of earthquakes, about 4 in Nfld (11 counting a few miles offshore), and only 2 inland in Labrador, one being about 4.5 maybe and another about 3.0, these about 100 miles from MFs.
      Of the many in Canada since the early 1600s, only about 160 are significant and 27 of them important, one of which was off Nfld south coast in 1929 at 7.2 reading.
      Vibration from earthquakes seems a low risk for MFs, especially those of concrete on bedrock. The North Spur seems would be more at risk that the other dams there, due to the foundation including quick clay. Even so, vibration from other than earthquakes may be more of a concern.
      Winston Adams

      Delete
    11. Yes and we are too.

      Delete
    12. Only 1 hr later and already I wonder if my posting @ 14:57 is too reassuring. I see that Canada is divided up into 3 zones: west , central and east. Many quakes occur near ancient faults where main rivers now lie, such as the St Lawrence. So too, the Churchill River seems to separate the stable central zone from the east zone, the north side of MFs being stable and south not so much, so the two earthquakes were on the south side.
      Other issues raise concern as to earthquake safety , especially liquification concerns in this east zone.
      I say OMG, maybe Bruno may be part right, that the guys who specialise in earthquake risk should get more attention? Recall Bruno dismissed Jim Gordon"s force calculation, coming from hydro engineers, and referencing the Geological Survey of Canada pros.
      Maybe I will have to eat crow, and put additional weight to that side of the risks? The "force" being static loads, vs vibrations from earthquakes. At present with impounding, static loads are increasing. If so , can I survive the personal attacks from Bruno? My mental health being fragile, he may just push me over the cliff, or have me run for that Aurora pot.
      First a question, maybe PENG2, or someone can answer. Is the North Spur and all dams at MFs designed for a 1/10,000 event? If not, what is the design?
      Winston Adams

      Delete
    13. To UG readers: assuming you followed the Inquiry, you may have seen questioning , in particular by Inquiry counsel Collins on the transmission line design , whether it was designed for a 1 in 50 year event, or 1 in 500 year (being more robust).
      Was there any question to any witness on the design of the dams, spillway and power house, and in particular the vulnerable North Spur? Anyone recall any such discussion and question? Design for an event in 1 in 10,000 years......does this ring a bell?
      These events are usuallyin terms of a worse case earthquake and a severe flood conditions for high rainfall.
      Was it discussed?
      If not does anyone know the design criteria. I assume PENG2 does?
      Did Dave Varvy or Des Sullivan, or MA hear this discussed? If it was, I missed it.
      Winston Adams

      Delete
  33. Letters to the Telegram;
    Andy Wells on Stan, Alteen and Fortis how they stayed under the cone of silence to let the boondoggle get sanctioned ...only 192 readers on line
    Dave Vardy on the North Spur risk......only 106 readers online.
    Small unimportant matters, hey?
    Winston

    ReplyDelete