RCMP and PUBLIC PROSECUTOR FINAL STEP IN LONG MUSKRAT JOURNEY

Guest Post by the "Anonymous Engineer"

EDITOR'S NOTE: The author of today's article is the whistleblower, dubbed the "Anonymous Engineer", who first disclosed falsification of the estimates for the Muskrat Falls project in January, 2017. 
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The Muskrat Falls Inquiry had a very interesting beginning, which may have been forgotten by now. When the costs of the project started going off the rails, the public outcry for an inquiry began to get louder and louder.  The timing was about mid 2017. The demand for an inquiry was strongly resisted by the leadership at the time, Premier Ball, Minister Coady, and Stan Marshall the CEO (Chief Executive Officer) of Nalcor. The public pressure for that response was too strong to resist. The leadership capitulated and initiated an Inquiry. Time line about mid 2018.

JUDGE LeBLANC TO REPLACE JIMMY KIMMEL AS NL's MEDIA SENSATION

As the fun was winding down in Dildo, Jimmy Kimmel having accepted the title of Honorary Mayor rather than face an Election, Judge Richard LeBlanc was wrapping up the Inquiry into the Muskrat Falls Project. It was time to begin the contemplation of a problem far harder than that which had excited Kimmel’s viewers all week.

Likely, Kimmel had stolen even the “die-hards” who might have otherwise tuned in for the Inquiry’s last inning. There was no pleasure to be had in Goose Bay anyway. There was only the pained legal verbiage of banal lawyers representing Nalcor and the venal politicians — the “culprits” — as well as the “contractors” (Astaldi), the “silent”  (Newfoundland Power), and the senior bureaucrats, the “submissives”, whose practiced deference helped create the debacle.

Judge LeBlanc will have the last word; unlike Kimmel, cautious metaphor will be the least of his problems. 

LeBLANC’S ADVICE TO BALL AND SIX OTHER TAKEAWAYS

 The completion of testimony by Premier Dwight Ball on Friday, June 5th brought Phase II of the Muskrat Falls Inquiry to a close. His comments can easily be described as anti-climactic given the larger narrative that the Commissioner, Judge Richard LeBlanc, has heard. Yes, it was important to hear the Premier’s version of the events that led to Ed Martin’s departure as Nalcor CEO, and about the mess he faced having taken Office. But the Commissioner’s advice to the Premier at the end had far more relevance than anything Ball shared.

 It wasn’t as if the Premier had had the intestinal fortitude to let Mr. Martin grovel in front of a Judge pleading for his severance package. Or even that his lack of forthrightness leaves us doubtful how both “ratepayers” and “taxpayers” will escape Muskrat’s underestimated and misunderstood financial burden.

PAUL DAVIS KEPT LID ON RELEASE OF COST OVERRUNS PRIOR TO 2015 GENERAL ELECTION

The Commission of Inquiry into the Muskrat Falls Project has heard plenty of evidence regarding how Nalcor CEO ED Martin failed to report to either the Board or the Government the truth about cost overruns and the delay in the project schedule.

Nalcor’s deceit is only one sub-text of a larger issue, to be sure. Another is that the Board and the Government — politicians and bureaucrats — supported and accommodated Nalcor’s secrecy, most effectively by suppressing bad news under the guise of “commercial sensitivity”.  

The Inquiry has now heard evidence that the September 2015 costs, which had grown to $7.65 billion (up from $6.99 billion announced in June 2014), were significantly understated. First power would be late by two years, too. Concerns that Nalcor had understated those issues made their way into a new EY Report in the early part of 2015. The Report’s existence created a big problem for the Paul Davis Government. The bureaucrats on the Oversight Committee understood foot-dragging well and Nalcor were never found without reasons why the truth hardly mattered.

WHEN POLITICIANS DON'T EVEN KNOW WHAT THEY DON'T KNOW

On the Witness Stand at the Muskrat Falls Inquiry, former Premier Paul Davis displayed the confidence of one who believed he knew what he was talking about. A confident Derrick Dalley, the former Tory Minister of Natural Resources, succeeded him. Trouble is, confidence is no substitute for the good judgment they ought to have brought to their senior positions.

Expected was leadership worldly-wise enough to understand the need for a process that assured “oversight” of the project at the highest level. The decision required personnel of international stature that was “earned” — not “awarded” by Kathy Dunderdale.  

Little wonder that Davis was once dubbed the “Corporal Premier” on this Blog, having admitted to the Inquiry that his chief source of information on Muskrat was Dalley.

DUNDERDALE DROPS TWO BOMBSHELLS ON INQUIRY

Readers of the Uncle Gnarley blog have probably heard enough of the Muskrat narrative since the Inquiry began in September. Likely, most have broken out the Christmas cheer — including the legal weed — which is sensible, as long as the car keys are buried.  Sobriety may not be good for your health right now. 

In what other way, I wonder, could the drip-drip-drip of mind-numbing testimony extracted by Commission Co-Counsel be suffered by a decent citizenry, however necessary? 

Fortuitously, O’Brien and Learmonth have been gifted the skills of interrogation, each one displaying the painstaking artistry of the dentist’s drill. It is a useful tool, too, so many of their subjects having exhibited excessively large memory cavities. Poor mental dentition was repeatedly the politicians’ escape. Ignorance of cavernous proportions was also on display, overlain with unbridled hubris. Ed Martin even elicited from the Commissioner an unscheduled interim report — actually a tongue-lashing — which described him as “rude”, though I expect an even harsher assessment awaits.

TODD STANLEY TELLS MF INQUIRY MORE THAN HE INTENDED?

Former senior bureaucrat Todd Stanley was on the witness stand at the Muskrat Falls Inquiry last Monday, October 22. All witnesses at the Inquiry are interviewed by Commission Counsel, but his interview is noteworthy for several reasons.

Mr. Stanley's constituted the most frank appraisal yet of the relationship that existed between public servants and Nalcor senior executives when approval of the Muskrat Falls development was being whisked through the Government's  approval process.

A 17-year veteran (2001–2018) of the public service, Stanley rose to the position of Deputy Minister of Justice. He also served as Counsel to the Department of Natural Resources in the early days of the Muskrat Falls development.  

FIVE WORRYING TAKEAWAYS FROM DANNY WILLIAMS’ TESTIMONY

Former premier Danny Williams fired back at critics at the Muskrat Falls Inquiry calling their opposition to the project "reckless, irresponsible and shameful." Williams went so far as to term them “bottom feeders”. Even the Uncle Gnarley Blog earned his wrath referred to as “Uncle Nobby, Nutty or whatever”. Eventually, it seems, the Commissioner had heard enough. This is an excerpt: 

But Mr. Williams we are living in a democratic society so you being a politician in the past would know that there are people who are going to agree with you and people who are going to disagree with you. So people have a right, I assume, to disagree and while you may not like the tenor of their statements I suspect that, in a democracy, we have to give people the right to express their views. – Judge Richard LeBlanc

The Commissioner’s rebuke of Williams’ disparagement of Muskrat Falls’ critics was one noteworthy moment of Williams’ testimony last Monday and Tuesday, October 1 and 2.   

FORENSIC AUDIT ONLY SCRATCHES SURFACE OF SANCTION COSTING ERRORS

Guest Post by PlanetNL

Planet NL15: Forensic Audit Only Scratches Surface of Sanction Costing Errors

The release of the Grant Thornton report on Friday raised serious doubts about Nalcor’s pre-sanction justification for the Muskrat Falls project.  The report indicated enough areas where weakly constructed assumptions would add up to show that the Muskrat Interconnected option would not be the least cost alternative compared to the remaining Isolated Island option.

Despite these very persuasive snapshots, the Inquiry may only have gotten just what it asked in terms of the forensic audit’s time and budget limitations from a team with little experience in electricity utilities.  The story is not yet complete enough and the Commission should pursue reconstruction of Nalcor’s cost models using an extensive revised set of assumptions developed by an experienced utility consultant.  It’s a significant undertaking but one that appears essential to allow the Commissioner to concisely explain the project’s economic fallacy.
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THE INQUIRY: INTRIGUE IS WHERE YOU FIND IT

The Hearing Room, on the first day of the Muskrat Falls Inquiry, might have served as metaphor for the author Joan Clark, and her story of madness and altered perception in “An Audience of Chairs”. She would find plenty of sub-plots here, except that the madness to be assessed will likely have only a tangential association with delusion.

Even that assumption — as with all those that gave the project its silver lining — may seem excessive. Madness? Delusion? On this first day, at this Inquiry, at $12.7 billion and counting, we might wonder: who is asking? That’s because the audience was mostly chairs. The place was virtually empty, except for the usual bevy of blue suits and a few others.

A POET'S PLEA: WE NEED TO KNOW WHO SOLD THE FARM

RISE AND FALLS

Standing firm on guard for thee,

we coalesce to make our plea,

and while the horse has left the barn,

we need to know who sold the farm;

An enterprise whose smell pervades,

the waters and its everglades;

whose genesis just boggles minds,

while mares will watch their bare behinds;

ENGINEER OFFERS JUDGE LEBLANC POINTS TO PONDER

Guest Post by Phil Helwig, P. Eng.

A year ago I started an article in reaction to Danny William’s speech to the Board of Trade but never completed it.

Now that Nalcor’s management of Muskrat Falls will be scrutinized. It is timely to examine some issues for the investigation.

LABRADOR GROUPS FOCUS MF INQUIRY ON "EROSION OF TRUST"

The Grand River Keepers (GRK) and the Labrador Land Protectors (LLP) have constituted Labrador's most steadfast opposition to the Muskrat Falls project. Though relatively small in number they have had an out-sized influence on public awareness in Labrador and throughout the province.

Rarely enjoying the unequivocal support of formal aboriginal government or town councils, the issues with which they have grappled – methylmercury and concerns regarding public safety, like the North Spur stability problem - they have advanced rational public policy themes which are important to every citizen. 

Their support has come from individual aboriginals and non-aboriginal people alike; individuals who have often felt that the Native Groups and the Town Councils, including the one in Happy Valley-Goose Bay, have been far too willing to take Nalcor’s strings-attached largesse in return for deference and for keeping quiet.

MF INQUIRY: UNCERTAINTY THE FUEL OF SCEPTICS

If Judge Richard LeBlanc feels like he is being watched, perhaps he will delay judging the cynics until after he has judged Nalcor. 

Each decision taken by the Commission of Inquiry into the Muskrat Falls Project is understandably scrutinized as watchers assess whether the Commission is capable enough to undertake the enormous task for which it has signed on, and whether the Commission will be transparent enough to imbue public confidence in its mandate, procedures and processes. Arguably, perhaps, the Commission is already making decisions whose side-effect is enabling this result.  The Premier could have given the Inquiry a head start had he submitted a draft Terms of Reference (TOR) to the public and sought input. That job fell to Judge LeBlanc.

THE MUSKRAT FALLS INQUIRY NEEDS YOU

Justice Richard LeBlanc has started the task of getting the Commission of Inquiry into the Muskrat Falls Project underway by allowing for the engagement of the public. Essentially, the Judge is asking for opinions with respect to the interpretation of the Terms of Reference (TOR). That outcome will govern the scope of the Inquiry.

This is an important phase. The Judge is doing what the Premier ought to have done.  But, unlike the Premier, Justice LeBlanc cannot alter or amend the TOR. He is, however, entitled to give them broad interpretation — as long as he does not overstep their parameters (over which he will exercise a Judge’s discretion). 

Anyone who has followed the Muskrat Falls saga will understand that the project’s origins, evolution and catastrophic failure required a complex web of political machinations, deals, contracts and relationships. Those who were poorly suited to the task, who were arrogant, who let ego or greed get the better of them, who were elected and were unwise or assumed a knowledge or a skill they didn’t possess, or who forgot to whom they owed fealty, will now be confronted with a Judge who will independently assess those decisions, their authors (some of them anyway), and the institutions that enabled them.