DUNDERDALE DROPS TWO BOMBSHELLS ON INQUIRY

Readers of the Uncle Gnarley blog have probably heard enough of the Muskrat narrative since the Inquiry began in September. Likely, most have broken out the Christmas cheer — including the legal weed — which is sensible, as long as the car keys are buried.  Sobriety may not be good for your health right now. 

In what other way, I wonder, could the drip-drip-drip of mind-numbing testimony extracted by Commission Co-Counsel be suffered by a decent citizenry, however necessary? 

Fortuitously, O’Brien and Learmonth have been gifted the skills of interrogation, each one displaying the painstaking artistry of the dentist’s drill. It is a useful tool, too, so many of their subjects having exhibited excessively large memory cavities. Poor mental dentition was repeatedly the politicians’ escape. Ignorance of cavernous proportions was also on display, overlain with unbridled hubris. Ed Martin even elicited from the Commissioner an unscheduled interim report — actually a tongue-lashing — which described him as “rude”, though I expect an even harsher assessment awaits.

DOES DUNDERDALE KNOW MORE NOW THAN SHE DISPLAYED AT SANCTION?

Former Premier Kathy Dunderdale is scheduled to appear as a Witness at the Commission of Inquiry into the Muskrat Falls Project today. The question that should be in the public's mind is whether she will display any  more knowledge of why her Administration sanctioned the scheme than she did in 2012. At that time she ought to have known that Nalcor was headed by unsuitable and inexperienced leadership and that it was driven by ego (her own and Danny Williams') as well as recklessness underpinned by several unfounded (possibly contrived) assumptions which included some 50-year forecasts. 

A few weeks after the Government sanctioned the project (December 17, 2012) this Blog featured a piece entitled "What the Members Opposite Don’t Understand" which had nothing to do with their ignorance (though it could have been about that, too). At issue was the lack of knowledge displayed by Dunderdale, herself.

Now, the former Premier will have to convince Judge Richard LeBlanc that she comprehended the complexity of  the project and enormity of its implications - apart from the justification for giving it Sanction. 

We await greater illumination from the former Premier in the coming days. Here is the January, 2013 piece:

CAN A DISGRACED P.C. PARTY SURVIVE?

The abrupt end to the Opposition filibuster in the House of Assembly on June 8^th served to underscore the larger issue of the Tories’ legitimacy as Her Majesty’s Loyal Opposition.

Government House Leader Andrew Parsons told the media that the Tories “were agreeable to finishing up”. As well they might have been. Even if the Liberals’ budgetary measures were misguided, as many deem the case, only the mindless would be capable of denying that Tory fiscal mismanagement was the root cause of the debate in the first place.

The Sitting was the first of the 48^th General Assembly. In the preceding General Election, the remnants of the Progressive Conservative Party had been sent to the Opposition benches less by a Liberal juggernaut than by its own determination to self-destruct.  

A province is facing penury from overspending and a reckless energy strategy devised by a bunch of ‘rink rats’. A vulnerable society, one perennially on the edge, has seen its tenuous financial stability frittered away in less than a decade.

Opposition Leader Paul Davis still recites lines that reflect blissful economic ignorance of our current circumstance. More frequently, Keith Hutchings is sent out to play the Opposition role. The smiley Member for Ferryland tackles important budgetary issues as if he were commenting on a sporting event. Gravitas is lost to sound. Incredulity is grafted onto light-weight. Bemusement is the consequence.

PADDY DALY SPUTTERS CATHY BENNETT’S CAMPAIGN

Actually that title is a slight exaggeration, but one no worse than the pumped up propaganda Cathy Bennett attempted as she got hoist on her petard, by VOCM Backtalk Host Paddy Daly.  She must have been trying to be Kathy Dunderdale, again. 

 The two are ‘cheek to jowl’, on Muskrat; the only difference is that Bennett believes she can explain the Project better. 

My Blog Post, How The Premier Damages Her Own Credibility (Part II) deals with Dunderdale’s wish to supply New England electric power for a fraction of its development cost. 

When no less a personage, than the Premier, advocates that we develop Labrador’s Gull Island, which is larger than Muskrat and reportedly cheaper per KWh, but still well in excess of 20 cents per KWh, and that we should sell it to the Governors for net 3.5 to 4 cents per KWh, you just know we have a problem.  When Bennett uses her soapbox to sell the same message, you know ‘Alice’ must have left the two behind, in Wonderland.

MQO Poll Darkens Dunderdale’s Destiny

The recent MQO Poll, on the performance and popularity of the current Dunderdale Government and the other two Parties, has been dissected by others.  A few additional observations are on offer.
First, to state the obvious, the NDP strength in the St. John’s area is the main story with 48% of those polled indicating support for that Party, if an election were called, against 35% for the Tories and 16% for the Liberals.  A three way split greets the Tories in the rural areas, giving them a slim lead (37%), against 34% for the Liberals and 28% for the NDP. On a province wide basis the Tories and the NDP are in a statistical dead heat with 36% indicating support for the PCs, 35% NDP and 28% Liberal.

As to which leader would make the best Premier, Dwight Ball is a washout in St. John’s (12%) against 37% for Premier Dunderdale and 51% for Lorraine Michael. In rural districts, Dunderdale is on top with 51%, followed by Ball 30% and Michael 19%.

The numbers, should they stay the same or deteriorate further, suggest the Government is in trouble, Dwight Ball is in a tough spot (even if the Liberals’ rural roots are still strong) and the NDP is the real challenge to the current leadership. The Government’s advantage, chiefly, is that it is still early in the mandate.

UNFINISHED BUSINESS

Don’t think for one minute that the troubling questions outstanding, at the end of 2012, were swept away by all the goodwill fostered by good Saint Nick.  If only life were as uncomplicated as a child’s Yuletide innocence! Still, that time of year does refresh our spirit and magnify the enormous possibilities life in Newfoundland and Labrador affords. 

While we ponder that prospect, let’s not be duped into thinking that, if we think only good thoughts, nothing bad will happen.  If you are of that bent, I can offer none of the wine that fuels your optimism.  You won’t find any “Dear Abby” advice on this Blog, either.  But, if you wish to engage in a forum that attempts to deal with public policy issues in a way that respects sound analysis, reason and common sense, your participation is welcomed. 

My own experience has stripped away any reflex to view life through rose-tinted glasses.  I believe that good outcomes are products of good decision-making; they are rarely accidental.  I have learned that good public policy is difficult to develop and even harder to implement; still, we have a responsibility to never relinquish the challenge. 

Governments are constantly subject to a multiplicity of conflicting interests which are often contrary to the public interest. Sometimes, Governments are unwise.  On other occasions, they are downright stupid. 

REFLECTIONS ON A DEBATABLE YEAR

It did not come as any great shock that Muskrat Falls had not ranked, either first or fifth, among the top news stories of 2012, according to CBC’s unscientific on-line poll; though I worried that the Tory caucus had influenced that outcome, too.  A Telegram front page story, on December 29^th , made public the news that the Premier’s communications people directed Caucus Members and their staff, to influence poll questions posed by the media, online; though I am unsure who is surprised.

Rightfully, the Burton Winters story received top billing; everyone felt the sadness and loss shared over one so young.  It was understandable how a grieving family, and the larger NL community, felt embittered that, despite all our technology and resources, a rescue effort could be so badly botched. 

The Premier treated the matter politically, first agreeing to meet the deceased youth’s parents, then refusing to do so, for fear of being challenged on the role the Province played in the failed search effort.   A more confident leader would have pushed aside such considerations and conveyed, to the family, the sense of shared sadness felt by the whole Province.  In addition, she ought to have asked the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court to appoint a Judge to look into the tragedy, expeditiously, if possible, and to make public the findings.

A LITTLE NAUGHTY. A LITTLE NICE.

I was still snoring it off, this morning, when a loud bang on the front door, demanded immediate response. What would anyone want at five am, I wondered, as I ran over the stairs in housecoat and slippers? Though the aggressive knocking offered a hint that, just perhaps, my old friend had gotten confused as to what day it was, he being a ‘fixture’ at our house on Christmas Day, I was soon to discover that the confusion was all mine.

“Tarnation”, Uncle Gnarley exclaimed, as I ushered him inside, the chill air swirling, as it sought to freeze my underparts.   “Nav, why aren’t you dressed and ready”, demanded Uncle Gnarley?  “You were the one who proposed to hike Cape Spear, this morning.  You know how I hate it when you are not on time!” Suddenly, the light bulb went on. I had indeed challenged the old man to hike the trail from the most easterly point in North America to Petty Harbour, for the umpteenth time.  I had forgotten to alarm my clock. No, not forgotten.  I suddenly remembered I had drifted off to sleep watching the ‘filibuster’, on my laptop, as it played itself out in the House of Assembly.

Quietly, not wanting to awaken sleeping beauty, I explained to Gnarley what had given rise to my indiscretion.  A smirk appeared, suggesting, perhaps forgiveness, as he muttered that I was doing “god’s work” keeping an eye on “that lot”,  referring to the Government, adding, "we shall catch up on the goings on in the House of Assembly".  

I nodded and proposed that, while I was completing my ablutions, he might cook a breakfast suited to two inveterate outdoorsmen.  A couple of eggs and a slice of homemade bread should put some spring in our step, I allowed. Then, with a grin that underlined its significance, I offered, as the French would say, the pièce de résistance, “the blood pudding is on the lower shelf of the refrigerator”. 

A look of greater satisfaction could not have been seen on a six year old on Christmas morning. 

The Pursuit of Apathy

I was lying in my comfy chair listening to evening news.   The forecaster called it the ‘weather bomb’.  This was a term that my old friend Uncle Gnarley had initially despised, considering it yet another example of the vulgarization of the King’s English.  But one could not deny the effect it had in describing the events which he knew was going to unfold in the next 24 hours.  The Avalon Peninsula was going to be somewhat spared.  The low pressure system was moving in from Cape Breton, over the straight and was due to hit the long range mountains by noon tomorrow.    It had come up very quickly, and it was going to be the first winter storm of the season. 

The wind beating off the side of the house was hypnotic and I quickly started to dot off.  My slumber was quickly interrupted by a knock at the door.  Who the hell would be out in this type of weather, at this time at night?  As I opened the door it was there was the cantankerous old economist Uncle Gnarley himself.  Slapped over his shoulder was an old canvas kit bag.  I motioned for my friend to come in.

“What brings you up from the shore”

“Well Nav.. I have sensed that you are getting soft in your old age, and I brought you some provisions in the event that this storm matches the high expectations of Toni-Marie”.   He looked at me, the devious smile was clearly meant as a double entendre. 

He reached into the bag, and hauled out a bottle of Laphroaig  “the peat will keep us warm tonight Nav”.

WHO PAYS THE COST OF MINING SUBSIDIES? YOU DO.

This piece contains many questions.  I suggest members of the public should start asking some of them. 

Let’s start here: should this Province give away its minerals essentially for the few jobs mining companies offer?  Should we insist on a royalty regime for oil and gas but give back to mining companies royalties we collect by subsidizing their power costs? 

These are critical public policy questions.   

NL has a history of very high unemployment rates reaching as high as 32.7% on a seasonally unadjusted basis in 1960.  That the Provincial Government would engage in subsidy programs to lessen this burden was understandable, notwithstanding the fact that some attempts to attract industry (the ERCO plant in Long Harbour being a case in point) went beyond all reason because the number and types of subsidies awarded made a mockery of any economic rationale. 

Yet, subsidies continue today even though the jobless rate in the Province is down to 12% (and the true rate is skewed by the seasonality of under employed fisher persons and plant workers).  In Labrador West, where the mines are proposed, the jobless rate is practically zero. 

THE ELUSIVE LOAN GUARANTEE

Prime Minister Stephen Harper pledged a federal loan guarantee, for the Muskrat Falls project or equivalent, during a 2011 campaign stop in St. John’s.

The guarantee still eludes.

The Premier is on tender hooks.  She can’t schedule the debate in the House of Assembly and MHI can’t complete its final report unless the guarantee arrives. Is this why the Premier was recently heard in the media voicing the possibility that the debate could take place without the guarantee?

To those who say that the Feds made a commitment, I’d say what about the “conditions” attached to the offer.

On Sept. 12, 2012 the CBC recorded federal Finance Minister, following a speech in St. John's, saying:  “We have a commitment…to provide the loan guarantee, and we have to work on the details, of course…we will honour the commitment”.

Two weeks later, on September 27, 2012, concerned that the guarantee (and hence, the project) was falling off the rails, Dunderdale raced off to Ottawa to meet with PM Harper but came up empty handed.

Now the end of October is upon us. Still, there is no loan guarantee, notwithstanding the new impetus ostensibly given federal bureaucrats by the Prime Minister.  

The Premier’s Speech: From Triumphalism to Despair

James McLeod, Telegram Reporter, diligently recorded and transcribed the Premier’s Remarks to the delegates at the P.C. Convention in Gander on the morning of October 13, 2012.  It was an important speech, dealing with, among other issues, the fiscal situation of the Province.    

The Premier was obviously troubled by the Province’s diminished financial position, a realization brought on by oil prices that are more inclined to the $100 mark than to the $124.12 per barrel ‘Budget plug’ her Finance Minister’s used last March.  With one third of Provincial revenues dependent on the higher number, the Minister’s forecast deficit, this year, of $258.4 million is likely to grow, by the Premier’s own reckoning, to $600-700 million and $1 billion next year.

Maintenance, interrupting production on the Terra Nova and White Rose platforms, was known at the time the Budget was delivered. The date for the end of offset payments under the Atlantic Accord, a reduction in annual revenue of $536.1 million in 2012-13 and beyond, has been known since the deal was struck in the 1980s. 

What did the Premier say in her Speech?  This is one excerpt:

“Let me tell you, we’re spending too much money…. We are. And we’ve got to get a handle on it. …Do you know that in Newfoundland and Labrador, we spend almost $5,000 per person more than any other province in Canada in providing services to the people of Newfoundland and Labrador.  Four thousand seven hundred dollars more”.    

James McLeod, Telegram Reporter commented on the Premier’s next volley.  Remarked, McLeod: “She also said that oil revenue has led to citizens being cavalier about government spending, because the funding isn’t coming out of their own pockets”.  Said the Premier: