OF TWITTER, VIRTUE WORSHIP AND CABIN FEVER

Cabin fever is consuming the Province. The latest manifestation is on social media, and the Chief Medical Officer of Health acknowledges, dozens of people are sending her gifts. Some propose that a street should be named in her honor. Some call this virtue worship.

Dr. Janice Fitzgerald is a busy gal to be sure and we should applaud her work - and those who support it – but I find myself in the group that will let time and perspective evaluate the enduring contributions of society’s presumptively worthy.

The idea of virtue worship, the unwavering belief in and an unquestioning reverence for authority figures, was something to which I gave mental notice recently. It happened as I took a hard right at the bottom of “Danny Way”, the stark empty landscape confirmation that I had either come face to face with prophesy or landed in a place reserved for Mars' Perseverance. Worryingly, I reversed and drove in the other direction; my intended destination, the site of COVID-19 testing, was situated a little to the east.

A FOOL'S PARADISE

 Guest Post by Ron Penney

In my recent guest blog, the Timing of the Next Provincial Election, I urged Premier Furey to await Dame Moya Greene’s interim report, due at the end of February, and her final report due at the of April, before calling an election. 

Not surprisingly, that advice was ignored and the resulting campaign is exactly what I had worried about. One conducted in total denial of the reality of our situation. 

As former Premier Smallwood used to say, “the first job of a politician is to get elected, the second job of a politician is to get elected, and the third job of a politician is to get elected.” You get the point. 

Premier Furey, while a political novice, has taken this to heart, with advice no doubt from a certain former Premier considerably more experienced than him in running successful campaigns. 

LEADERS' DEBATE CONFIRMS ELECTION AFTERMATH

When the Province’s dire fiscal position ought to be center stage in Election 2021, it  is not.

This is a place where, it seems, neither politicians nor reporters are willing to even describe the full extent of the problem.

A few days ago, Premier Furey could be heard saying that the “fiscal gap” – the difference between revenues and expenditures - is $800 million, when the correct number is around $2 billion. In the same breath, he added that the Feds had taken care of the initial debt payments on Muskrat Falls of $844 million – forgetting to note that they were only deferred.

The great majority of people likely have no idea how high the public debt has grown or what it means to have debt beyond our capacity to pay. They do know, by and large, that we are in financial trouble; otherwise, there is widespread confusion. 

On the other hand, few who know better would put their hand up and tell Furey, Crosbie and Coffin to cut out their nonsense. While the Employers’ Council is showing Polling data offering widespread public support for measures to deal with the fiscal mess, where is the clamor of advocates for such change? 

FISHERY ALLIANCE ISSUES "Fish Challenge" for Election 2021

Guest Post by the Fishery Community Alliance

Rising to the FISH Challenge?

Preface

During Election of 2015, the Fishery Community Alliance (FCA) was asked to provide the then Liberal Opposition Leader with a guide to develop a fisheries policy should the Party be elected to govern the Province.   This document was followed up with a number of meetings with Dwight Ball at his request, so he could be better prepared to tackle the fishery file.

Following his election in November 2015, the Premier and his MHAs not only ignored the document and its recommendations, but avoided any reference to the state of our fishery and the fact the Province lost 30,000 jobs and thousands of people since the 1992 Moratorium.

In fact, no effort, whatsoever, has been made to rebuild the fishery by the Federal Government, who is responsible for it management, since Clyde Wells was Premier over 30 years ago.

THIS MUSKRAT PLAN WON'T CAUSE MAXIMUM ECONOMIC DESTRUCTION

Guest Post by PlanetNL

PlanetNL31: Muskrat Must Be an Unregulated Government Business Enterprise

Rate Mitigation platforms presented by the Liberal and Conservative parties are way off base and pose great risk of rate escalation when difficult and contrived mitigation measures fail to work.  Worse is that the mitigation strategies completely fail to recognize that ratepayers should not be responsible for paying Muskrat project costs at all.  Muskrat must be made into an unregulated export-focused Government Business Enterprise with energy made available to any buyer, including NL Hydro, at competitive market rates.  There is a compelling case to do so, yet the political parties appear indelibly committed to the deceitful plans laid out by past governments, setting a course for maximum economic destruction.

"RE-IMAGINING" OURSELVES, A GOOD BEGINNING TO 2021

The year 2020 will not be remembered fondly. Covid-19 represented a monumental social and economic challenge for millions. Yet, in NL, a small and dispersed population suddenly found their large landmass a refuge against viral spread, as more populous parts of the Country continued to struggle with the problems of density, stress and indifference.

Now, each Province's capacity to quickly distribute and inoculate large numbers of people will give further testimony to whether our vital and expensive health care service is much more than an overindulged bureaucracy. In NL, too, a review of delayed surgeries, testing and other services will provide greater clarity about a system overfunded by, at least, $400 million and a propensity for inefficiency, inflexibility and resistance to change.

Change is on some minds, including the Premier's, though the jury is "out" as to whether his enthusiasm for political leadership has staying power.

THE TIMING OF THE NEXT PROVINCIAL ELECTION

Guest Post by Ron Penney

Under section 3.1 of the House of Assembly Act, an election is required to be held within 12 months of the swearing in of a new Premier, which occurred on August 19, 2020. So an election is required by August of next year. 

It is obviously tempting for the new Premier, operating in a minority situation, and having a recent further reduction in his caucus, to call the election sooner rather than later. This is  particularly the case because Dame Moya Greene will provide her interim report on February 28, 2021 and final report on April 30, 2021, focusing in large part on our fiscal crisis and  how we should respond. 

In addition, we have so far had a good public health response to the pandemic and federal programs have alleviated to a large degree the economic impact on most families. Given the imminent rollout of the vaccine, and should the caseload remain low, it will be to the political advantage of the government to go to the polls sooner rather than later. 

And finally, the governing party is riding high in the polls 

The Government should resist that temptation. 

NALCOR BONUSES: A FLAT-FOOTED MINISTER "RE-IMAGINED"

If the Industry, Energy and Technology Minister had cleaned house at Nalcor immediately upon his arrival, we would have applauded him. No applause is necessary.

The public moans, again, over Nalcor’s narcissistic leadership; a “runaway train” unbowed and unpunished.

How many successive years has it been; repetitious and frustratingly undeserved bonuses given to Nalcor officials? Why is government so deaf? How is it that no institution in the province possesses the capacity to, at least, nudge them to change? 

It seems Andrew Parsons knows not where to begin. It is a far tougher job than the Justice Ministry, a place where rules abound, a bevy of lawyers administer them and even make the political role routine.

Industry and Natural Resources is different. It requires personal energy, brains, creativity, boldness and above all leadership.  The job has been vacant for a very long time.

OILco: GIVE JIM KEATING TO THE NORWEGIANS

Newfoundland's oil and gas company acting CEO, Jim Keating, is touting a solution to Muskrat Falls' almost worthless surplus electricity. He suggests using a ‘shore-to-offshore’ extension cord for future oil production platforms. Presently, the electricity used on offshore production platforms is produced by generators using natural gas feedstock which comes straight from the well bore - no worries about Alpine conditions - or software - leaving a high-cost production platform in the dark. 

Keating is spouting a Norwegian concept. All you have to do is run a 400 km. “power cord from Soldier’s Pond”, Keating told NOIA, out to one of the as yet undiscovered 16 prospects. Keating neglects to mention that the ‘juice’, as Dunderdale used to call the power, is connected to another 1100 km. extension cord, which the Norwegians don’t need to account for. 

And, by the way, how many offshore prospects are there in Jim Keating’s frame of reference? The number is specifically - not approximately or even a guesstimate -  16 - and that’s just in the West Orphan Basin. 

JOBS CRISIS: FOCUS ON THE "COLLECTIVE AGREEMENT" ALONE NOT ENOUGH

It is ironic that the oil industry, whose excesses have helped distort economies in many parts of the world, including ours, now has its hand out to the same governments they have “played-off” against each other for decades.

Still, two groups of local workers – operations and construction - rely heavily on the industry for their livelihood and, understandably, want it rescued. This post is a commentary on the plight of the latter category.

While oil will be in demand for many years yet, the problems of the industry, including price, are not going away. No matter how you feel about environmentalists, many of whom naively believe that economies can switch to other job producing opportunities as fast as turning on a light bulb, the replacement of dirty oil is both necessary and unstoppable.

But naivety isn’t the exclusive purview of just one group. The oil industry, prohibited from engaging in monopolistic practices in free enterprise economies, have for years climbed on the backs of OPEC, particularly Saudi Arabia, to keep benchmark prices as high as possible. The added fear is that countries like Iran and Venezuela, who have vast unproductive oil reserves, will get their act to together.

Those realities, and others to be described, announce that on the jobs front: “Houston, we have a long-term problem”.

OVER 1000 FPSO JOBS GO TO SPAIN WHILE WE BEG THE FEDS FOR MONEY

True to form, Premier Dwight Ball and Natural Resources Minister Siobhan Coady have joined NOIA in a new crusade to have the Government of Canada ante up for a “neo-PIP” (Petroleum Incentive Program). NOIA not only wants the oil industry to receive exploration funding, they want the “beleaguered” Companies to get operating assistance, too. This is not as surprising as it is aggravating. We are talking about a group of petty, quick-buck, short-sighted manufacturer’s agents anyway; the Ball Government aligns perfectly with their thinking.

Many “private-enterprisers”, not just oil companies, are wont to pump their chests about the capital which they put at risk; until there is an economic hiccup — or pandemic — that transforms them into beggars. Problem is, when the distress passes, they expect to be left alone to conduct “private” business unhindered, the notion of payback quickly forgotten.

ANDREW FUREY THINKS RHETORIC AND IDEAS ARE THE SAME

This is Andrew Furey at the kick-off to his Liberal Leadership bid: “I want to make a difference. I know the province is facing some tough times right now… I think I have something to offer.”

The Address, attended by all but one Member of the provincial Liberal Caucus, continued with this assertion: “I think everyone realizes the budget crunch that we’re under. My top priority is going to be to get in there, get fully up to speed on the fiscal situation… get a better understanding of the economic pressures, upward or downward, and the levers that have been pulled or not pulled.” What codswallop! “Upward or downward”… “pulled or not pulled”. This is a Premier-in-waiting who is not “up to speed” in more ways than one.

WHAT SHOULD WE EXPECT FROM OTTAWA? (Part 4)

Guest Post by David Vardy and Ron Penney

What should we expect from Ottawa?

Part Four

GNL has to commit itself to put its house in order, recognizing there are practical limits. GOC will not want to write us a blank cheque. Ottawa will seek a commitment to a three to five year fiscal recovery plan and they will demand a say in the plan. Will we have to surrender our sovereignty in order to secure the help we will need? Or will a commitment to balanced budget legislation at the end of a three to five year fiscal recovery plan be sufficient?

We have 1.38% of the population of Canada. We receive 0.947% of federal transfer payments. Nova Scotia has 2.58% of the population and receives 4.43% of the federal cash transfers. Nova Scotia gets $2.1 billion in equalization, while we get none. This is the case because the equalization program is based on fiscal capacity and operates with a lag. Our fiscal capacity has been above the national average so we have not been meeting the threshold but this does not mean there is not a strong case to be made for enhanced funding under both existing program such as Fiscal Stabilization Payments and under other funding mechanisms, designed to provide fiscal relief during the pandemic. 

FISCAL CHOICES AFTER REOPENING: A FRAMEWORK FOR DISCUSSION (Part 3)

Guest Post by David Vardy and Ron Penney

FISCAL CHOICES AFTER REOPENING:
A FRAMEWORK FOR DISCUSSION 

PART THREE

We had intended to send this to the Telegram to ask if it would publish the two parts as guest columns as it had for the first two. 

The Telegram has been very good to both of us and has published the many opinion pieces we wrote both together and individually on Muskrat Falls and other public policy issues over the past decade. In the same period the Telegram has done an excellent job though it’s columnists, such as Russell Wangersky, Pam Frampton and Brian Jones, on Muskrat Falls, and other important public policy issues, as has its reporters such as Ashley Fitzpatrick. 

The recent decision of the Telegram to suspend further columns from Brian Jones is not what we expect from the Telegram, the last bastion for freedom of the press in Newfoundland and Labrador.  

As Voltaire said “I may not agree with what you say but I will defend to the death your right to say it.” 

NATURAL GAS: WHY SAVING THE PLANET WILL HELP SAVE NEWFOUNDLAND

Guest Post by Cabot Martin 

Uncle Gnarley’s recent invitation to pen a few words on Oil & Gas issues has emboldened me to return to a few of my favorite offshore issues. 

There will be two articles – the first on our most neglected sector, offshore natural gas development; the second on oil issues.  

The natural gas aspect seems to be largely absent from the recent “Town Hall” efforts in support of the oil & gas industry’s continued presence and vigor in our offshore area. 

These comments are meant to “complement those efforts” in the old days I would have said “demonstrate they are missing the boat” – but that was then and this is now. 

Indeed, the first draft of this piece included a long list of unfortunate aspects of the natural gas debate – but in the interest of the common cause it ended up on the cutting room floor. 

ECONOMY NEEDS MENDING AT A HIGH LEVEL

Premier Ball’s March 20, 2020 letter to PM Justin Trudeau seeking help following his Administration’s failure “to finalize our borrowing program, both short and long term”, might have reminded the PM of the Dickens character Oliver Twist, and his plea to Mr. Bumble: “Please, sir, I want some more.” Luckily for Ball, he wasn’t handy enough to Trudeau to be given a knock with the soup spoon, Oliver Twist’s reward for ingratitude; surely only distance could have spared him.

During his five years as Premier, Ball has never shown an inclination to “self-help”. That is not to suggest that the Province did not need the assistance of the Government of Canada to meet the public sector payroll. However, the economic fallout of the pandemic and an oil industry labouring under obliterated demand, has only compounded a pre-existing overspending problem; it did not originate there.

COURTING DISASTER WITH HALF-MEASURED HYPOCRISY AGAINST COVID-19

Guest Post by PlanetNL
PlanetNL29: Courting Disaster With Half-Measured Hypocrisy Against COVID-19

This province has suffered plenty from political failure in the past decade plus.  We don’t need COVID-19 to turn out to be the next major disaster but the present administration seems, as usual, unable to calculate the risks.  The issue is that the necessity for physical distancing and the shelter-in-place concept needs a very high rate of participation to succeed but the government has left a mile-wide loophole for “essential” businesses to keep operating that is placing many communities and the entire province at great risk.
…………..

COVID-19: AVOIDING THE APOCALYPSE

Guest Post by Ron Penney
Because of our geography we have a big opportunity to nip the Coronavirus in the bud but I fear we are not taking full advantage of that fact.

And because we are late in getting cases, we can learn from other jurisdictions.

I know that some will say: what does he know about this, as was said of me and my other fellow naysayers when we dissented on Muskrat Falls.

SCAPEGOATING COVID-19 JUST MORE OF THE SAME

It is difficult to think of a greater responsibility of government than to support citizens in a time of crisis. The Ball Administration is working on the largely non-financial measures to prepare for the arrival of COVID-19, like discouraging events where crowds congregate and gearing the healthcare system to provide strategic care amidst an array of jurisdictions. Otherwise, it has limited, if any, capacity to supplement measures proposed by the Federal Government, to assist individuals and small businesses financially injured by the curtailment of trade and work, or to engage in tax relief. The COVID-19 event arrives on the heels of “snowmageddon” which has already robbed a good many pockets.  

Government’s haplessness exposes the extent to which NL has squandered the ability to function as a viable entity within the nation. The revelation is not new. When a pandemic dramatically shuts down normal commerce, it is a time that exposes how badly we have mangled our financial resources and the opportunity to confront any peril. Even after all that has occurred, in place of leadership, we witness only scapegoating.   

WHY GILBERT BENNETT, OTHERS SHOULD BE FIRED

The public should be disturbed that, in releasing the Report of the Muskrat Falls Inquiry, Premier Ball and Minister Siobhan Coady were unwilling to demonstrate that there are consequences for senior public servants who engage in a calculated and systematic abuse of the public’s trust. Indeed, they exhibited no capacity to even check the behaviour of their Tory predecessors.

Among the Commissioner’s findings is that, in the case of Nalcor, the Corporation failed to adhere “to the core values of open communication, honesty and trust, or accountability in their discussions and communications with GNL [the Government of Newfoundland and Labrador] and Nalcor’s board of directors.” He found that “Edmund Martin, Gilbert Bennett and the PMT [Project Management Team] frequently took unprincipled steps to help secure Project sanction. They concealed information that would undermine the business case reported to the public, to GNL and to Nalcor’s board of directors.” His findings confirm that senior officials of Nalcor and GNL behaved in this way on multiple occasions.