BOOSTER BUMBLING

 Guest Post by Ron Penney

ON A WILD GOOSE CHASE - SEARCHING FOR THE ELUSIVE BOOSTER SHOT 

Like those of you who are of a certain age, I was very much looking forward to getting my booster shot, particularly with the advent of the omicron variant, which has proven to be much more contagious, although so far a much more benign variant. 

The evidence is that the two doses does not provide much protection from getting  the variant but does protect against hospitalization and fatal outcomes for those who are fully vaccinated. The booster shot gives much more protection from infection and lessens the severity of symptoms even more. 

The objective has to be to not overwhelm our hospitals, as they also experience the loss of health care workers who have to self isolate because of possible exposure. So far our hospitalizations are very low, but the experience of other jurisdictions demonstrates that this is unlikely to last. 

FUREY’S ELECTION CLAIM NOT A “MODEL” OF HONESTY

Premier’s Furey’s claim that he had a window of opportunity to call a General Election when “the (Covid) numbers were low” and that “no one could have predicted the outbreak that occurred” simply does not square with the facts.

The two leaders of the Opposition and the media are right in calling on the Premier to release the probabilistic modelling data “from different jurisdictions” that he says helped him make the call. 

At this point, the issue is less about an ill-timed election than it is about the Premier’s integrity. Furey could have said that the Covid numbers in this province were low – and they were – and that he took a gamble - and lost the bet. That is not what he claims, however. He has  fabricated an argument around evidence of “modelling” for which no known agency has claimed ownership. The knock-on implications of his assertion should not be dismissed either.

When Does Granny (and Grandpa) get the vaccine?

Guest Post by Ron Penney

I’m poppy to my grandchildren and at an age where the risk of an adverse result from a bout of covid is high. 

I’ve been taking all the precautions recommended by public health authorities and we are fortunate that the public health measures have worked so far. 

But the risk is still there until vaccines are widely administered and herd immunity is accomplished. Community spread still can occur despite our public health measures as we can see from New Brunswick, once part of the Atlantic Bubble. 

In the US, 8 out of 10 deaths from covid occur in people 65 and older. 

THE BARD ON THE "LET 'ER RIP" COVID CROWD

LET ‘ER RIP

The antivaccine and open-up crowd

And anti-mask brigades

Where egoed leaders lunacy lead

Ignore the Covid threat

Creating catastrophe for mankind.

The virus mutates aggressively

And seriously afflict the mind.

HOW TO REOPEN SAFELY: THE BALANCE BETWEEN PUBLIC HEALTH AND ECONOMICS

Guest Post by David Vardy

Are We Ready?

The pandemic has become the biggest public policy issue which we face. It poses a threat to our public health and to our economic and fiscal sustainability. Yet government has hesitated to engage in a systematic consultation process as had been recommended or to establish advisory councils to seek guidance from concerned citizens on governing in the age of coronavirus.

How far should we go in locking down our economy? Should we protect only the vulnerable and the elderly or lock down the full economy? GNL is being pressed to reopen the economy, particularly by the tourism industry and various business people who recently wrote to the Premier. Are we now ready to reopen fully and to invite tourists to the province? The letter to the Premier asked for “an immediate end to the State of Medical Emergency and a return of the governance of the province to our elected officials.

TRAVEL CONTROLS – CAN CONCERNED CITIZENS MAKE A DIFFERENCE?

Guest Post by David Vardy

Isolation an advantage
In the past our isolation has been perceived as a disadvantage. This is no longer the case, when it comes to the pandemic. As we face this most serious threat to our safety and security we are able to turn our isolation into an advantage. We can be “masters of our fate”. It is not too late but we could and should have acted sooner. We can and must get it right. It is a matter of survival.

The coronavirus is the biggest threat to our province and its people today. The Director of the US Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), Dr. Robert Redfield, recently said the US would experience a second wave in the fall.  We, in this province, should be able to keep it at bay and avoid a second wave. Fortunately, it is something over which we can exercise some control but only if the public is fully engaged, both individually and collectively, through our provincial government.

PROVINCE MISSING THE BOAT ON COVID-19 TESTING

There is a risk that we will come in contact with COVID-19 but there’s absolutely no risk that the Province will do anything except "follow the leader" - Ottawa . The best opportunity to control spread - mass testing - accompanied with physical distancing and/or quarantine, is not even on the table.

Testing is not without its critics however, some of them highly credible, including B.C.'s officer of public health, Dr. Bonnie Henry. A common problem is that COVID-19 tests result in a high number of false negatives. "The false negative rate can be as high as 30 per cent early on in infection", stated Henry in an April 14th CBC news story. "Testing in B.C.," the story continues, "is currently being limited to those who develop coronavirus symptoms who are hospitalized, residents or staff of long-term care facilities, part of an outbreak investigation, or health-care workers" - not unlike the testing regime here.

COVID-19: WE STILL DON'T HAVE A PLAN. TELL POLITICIANS THAT TESTING IS THE BEST ONE AVAILABLE.

We should be concerned that the politicians - the one-string violins preaching social distancing - are far too caught up in the daily afternoon “War by Video Conference”. They are not making any real decisions to control COVID-19 spread or how to return the province’s economy to life as fast as possible, without precipitating another outbreak. They are awaiting instructions from Ottawa. 

Having emptied the public Treasury these past five years, why would we think that they possess the skills necessary to manage a pandemic, anyway?   

Let’s get serious. The afternoon “Video Conference” is nothing more than chatter; it is as predictable as the afternoon Soaps. When you have heard all the admonishments over “social distancing”, what have you learned except that they will return for more of the same the next day?  We hear it all from the PM anyway. 

We need a Plan, and we don’t yet have one. This article will suggest one.

AVOIDING THE APOCALYPSE (PART II)

Guest Post by Ron Penney

The Apocalypse is Coming

Two weeks ago I wrote a guest blog, Avoiding the Apocalypse, in which I noted that at every step of the way our public health response has been slow and that as a result, we may well have squandered the advantage we have as a result of our geography. As the song goes, with respect to the island of Newfoundland, “thank God we’re surrounded by water.” And, of course Labrador is also very remote from the rest of the continent.

In addition, I pointed out that our isolation meant that we were going to be one of the last jurisdictions to have cases. This result is that we had the advantage of learning from the experiences in other places and could act accordingly.

We have missed that opportunity and, as a result, we are into the pandemic big time. More cases than New Brunswick.

GOVERNING IN THE AGE OF CORONAVIRUS: ADVICE TO PREMIER

Editor's Note: Today, two articles – rather than the usual one – are posted for Uncle Gnarley readers. This one contains a letter written by frequent contributor, David Vardy, to Premier Dwight Ball containing a series of 12 recommendations intended to promote an “all-of-government” approach to combating spread of the COVID-19 virus threatening this province. Recommendation #12, which encourages Government to act to increase the number of people who stay at home, is especially poignant; it is this theme about which PlanetNL has also written. His article is entitled "Courting Disaster With Half-Measured Hypocrisy Against COVID-19". Both pieces rely on an Australian study described in the following Link:  Data shows coronavirus can only be controlled if 8 out of 10 Australians stay home. The Report is based upon simulation studies which conclude that physical distancing requires 80 per cent compliance in order to stop the spread of the virus. The failure by our Government to require closure of construction, mining and other heavy industries, likely makes such a target unattainable. I would be grateful if you liked/shared both pieces on social media and, otherwise, you are welcome to send them to people whom you know are connected with those sectors. – Des Sullivan

Guest Post by David Vardy follows

COURTING DISASTER WITH HALF-MEASURED HYPOCRISY AGAINST COVID-19

Guest Post by PlanetNL
PlanetNL29: Courting Disaster With Half-Measured Hypocrisy Against COVID-19

This province has suffered plenty from political failure in the past decade plus.  We don’t need COVID-19 to turn out to be the next major disaster but the present administration seems, as usual, unable to calculate the risks.  The issue is that the necessity for physical distancing and the shelter-in-place concept needs a very high rate of participation to succeed but the government has left a mile-wide loophole for “essential” businesses to keep operating that is placing many communities and the entire province at great risk.
…………..

TIME FOR A REAL WAR ON COVID-19

The Chief of Defense Staff – aka Commander of the Canadian Army - should be involved in fighting the war on COVID-19; the Prime Minister and the Premiers should step back, at least a little, as coordination to combat the spread of the virus seems both late and fragmented.  

After three weeks, we only have the dulcet tones of the Prime Minister and the Premiers. They are doing a good job of staying in touch with Canadians, but as to a coherent plan that will save lives and get the public back to work, there is none. In particular, knowing that one person can infect dozens, no regime exists to stop people from engaging in irresponsible behaviour.  

SCAPEGOATING COVID-19 JUST MORE OF THE SAME

It is difficult to think of a greater responsibility of government than to support citizens in a time of crisis. The Ball Administration is working on the largely non-financial measures to prepare for the arrival of COVID-19, like discouraging events where crowds congregate and gearing the healthcare system to provide strategic care amidst an array of jurisdictions. Otherwise, it has limited, if any, capacity to supplement measures proposed by the Federal Government, to assist individuals and small businesses financially injured by the curtailment of trade and work, or to engage in tax relief. The COVID-19 event arrives on the heels of “snowmageddon” which has already robbed a good many pockets.  

Government’s haplessness exposes the extent to which NL has squandered the ability to function as a viable entity within the nation. The revelation is not new. When a pandemic dramatically shuts down normal commerce, it is a time that exposes how badly we have mangled our financial resources and the opportunity to confront any peril. Even after all that has occurred, in place of leadership, we witness only scapegoating.