WHAT SHOULD WE EXPECT FROM OTTAWA? (Part 4)

Guest Post by David Vardy and Ron Penney

What should we expect from Ottawa?

Part Four

GNL has to commit itself to put its house in order, recognizing there are practical limits. GOC will not want to write us a blank cheque. Ottawa will seek a commitment to a three to five year fiscal recovery plan and they will demand a say in the plan. Will we have to surrender our sovereignty in order to secure the help we will need? Or will a commitment to balanced budget legislation at the end of a three to five year fiscal recovery plan be sufficient?

We have 1.38% of the population of Canada. We receive 0.947% of federal transfer payments. Nova Scotia has 2.58% of the population and receives 4.43% of the federal cash transfers. Nova Scotia gets $2.1 billion in equalization, while we get none. This is the case because the equalization program is based on fiscal capacity and operates with a lag. Our fiscal capacity has been above the national average so we have not been meeting the threshold but this does not mean there is not a strong case to be made for enhanced funding under both existing program such as Fiscal Stabilization Payments and under other funding mechanisms, designed to provide fiscal relief during the pandemic. 

PREMIER NOT READY FOR CBC's ANTHONY GERMAIN

One of the most worrisome aspects of Premier Dwight Ball's leadership is confirmation that he does not understand the critical issues facing the province and he is blissfully content in his ignorance.

Former Premier Dunderdale suffered the same malady. She, too, seemed confused — especially with respect to Nalcor, the Muskrat Falls project, and the relationship between development costs and market value of the power. The only difference is that Ball is less imperious.

Premiers Tom Marshall and Paul Davis were slightly more articulate but both men either did not understand their briefs or deliberately misled the public. They, like Danny Williams, were never reticent about boasting of the province’s good fortune — Newfoundland and Labrador, they said, was going to earn hundreds of millions from the Muskrat Falls project. Of course, it just wasn’t true.

With the election of Premier Ball, mindlessness to facts received no appeal.

DELUSION AND THE ORIGINS OF A DEBT SPIRAL

Guest Post Written by "JM"

As a regular follower of provincial politics[1] and current affairs, I was generally aware that spending by the provincial government had increased, since 2006, to levels well outpacing inflation.  Yet it was not until the release of the 2015 Budget, and the province’s “5 Year Plan”[2] for fiscal recovery, that I awakened to true state of the provinces finances.  The $1.3 billion projected deficit in that year was enough to garner attention. 

However, it was the government’s prediction of a nearly $2 billion increase in revenue, during the period 2015-2020, as the main driver for a return to balanced budgets, that seemed unlikely enough to be incredulous.