A new name
has emerged in the race for the Tory Leadership. Frank Coleman, scion of the well-known Newfoundland
business family, has confirmed to the media that he is interested in the job. A decision is imminent.
People who know
Frank Coleman personally (I do not) describe him as bright, analytical and
thoughtful. The same people describe him
as possessing a charisma that is “quiet and reserved”. In all likelihood they are fans.
Even if this picture is only partly correct, Coleman would not be making this decision
on a whim; he would have the overwhelming support of the P.C. Caucus. More likely, their support is unanimous.
Coleman’s
expression of interest in the role of Premier is significant and not just
because he wasn’t on the media’s list.
Frank
Coleman is being courted.
A group of
people within and outside the Tory Caucus, including former Premier Danny
Williams, have cast their net widely. Coleman
is deemed to possess the right mix of personal and professional credentials. He is the guy senior Tories are counting on to
rescue the P.C. Party from crisis, if not total collapse.
The Tories have
calculated that they need an ‘outsider’, someone with a reputation for being
forthright and honest. The choice of
Frank Coleman reflects that imperative; without an injection of decency and credibility,
this Government is toast.
The irony
is that, once again, Danny Williams gets a say in the choice of his
successor. He screwed up badly last
time. A second irony is that the rank
and file of the P.C. Party, once again, may not get the opportunity to elect a
Leader.
Will Bill
Barry stay in the race? Will Shawn
Skinner enter the fray?
Frank
Coleman would be well advised, notwithstanding the hand of Danny, to welcome a
vigorous contest. The P.C. Party needs one; the public needs a
proper airing of some critical public policy issues.
They
especially need to see if Coleman is a progressive, a conservative or if, as a
business person, he is too far to the right in a Province which only allows politics
to be driven on the left.
Public
policy matters aside, Coleman’s interest in the top spot reveals a picture more
complicated than just the need to permanently replace Kathy Dunderdale, bad
Polls, or even the Party’s banishment to the political wilderness.
The move
suggests the few ostensibly interested Cabinet Ministers, on the media’s ‘List’,
have contemplated their fortunes and have struck themselves off.
None
possess, it seems, the requisite skills, credibility or capacity to rekindle
the respect and confidence of a very disillusioned public. None is capable of re-building the Party in
time for the next election. It is quite
an admission for a Government in power this long.
The reality
of the Williams/Dunderdale’s legacy has finally sunk in.
Let’s face
it. Even if one Cabinet Minister had the
support of other colleagues, who among the general public would believe him/her
capable of dealing arms-length with Nalcor, strong enough to look voters in the
eye and stand accountable, or be suddenly able to make policy decisions the
Government has long avoided?
The answer
is: no one.
Other
questions beg acknowledgement.
If Frank
Coleman is acceptable: why not Bill Barry?
Both are outsiders.
For some
reason, neither Bill Barry nor any of the “pretenders” on the media List were judged
against the delegate selection process that ultimately determines the outcome
of the Contest. It failed to answer the
question: from where would their support come?
Why, for
example, can’t Bill Barry win?
Simply put,
Mr. Barry cannot command a large block of support from Caucus. Hence, he cannot win.
And make no
mistake the Caucus will determine the outcome of the Race. There is no mystery; it is all about the
math.
The P.C
Party’s Constitution requires that if there are two or more Candidates, a Convention
will be held in which eligible delegates are permitted to vote.
Eligible
delegates will include the P.C. Caucus, a large number of ex-officio delegates
(defined as Tory Senators, former Tory MHAs, MPs and former MPs and Provincial
Executive Members) AND eleven
delegates from each District Association.
When you
consider the numerical influence from District delegates, which might comprise
up to three-quarters of the whole ‘electoral college’, you begin to assess the
importance of the Caucus’ collective sway.
Sitting
Members are not only influential, in their own right; they are the ones most
capable of organizing delegate elections at the local level.
In a
nutshell, the organizational apparatus favors them. Only if the Caucus’ loyalties are severely
fractured can Ridings, which have no sitting Tory Member, really count. In such a circumstance, Frank Coleman would
not be courted at all.
Frank
Coleman has the Caucus united around him.
The Race is over.
Only Bill
Barry stands in the way of unanimity. Sean Skinner can perform these
calculations. My guess: you won’t hear from him.
That said,
no one should be foolish enough to ask Bill Barry or Sean Skinner to step aside.
The Tory Party needs some constructive tension, a period of serious public
policy debate; it needs an opportunity to breathe following not one but two
suffocating Leaders.
Besides, the
public needs to know what Frank Coleman stands for.
All that
said, in the absence of any more surprises, and based on the math, you had best
get your bunting unpacked.
All Hail: Premier
Frank Coleman.