It is
difficult not to feel a sense of anticipation building around the forthcoming
Budget. Not just business but the public, too, are speaking fearfully about the
measures that Finance Minister Cathy Bennett may impose to return the Province
to a state of fiscal sanity.
Of course,
the words “may impose” have no legitimate place in the current budgetary
discourse; but they are there. One might ask: what does the Minister and the
Premier not understand about a $2 billion deficit, and a reluctant bond market
demanding proof the government will act?
The mere
fact that the Minister failed to follow through with the proposed HST hike, in
spite of deteriorating revenues, and having failed to offer immediate off-setting
tax hikes and spending cuts, represents a sure signal the new government was not
quite ready to govern. Indeed, Ball’s early comments suggested he might find
respite in Ottawa. Likely, by now, he has figured out partisanship doesn’t
count for much; besides, we should fix the problems we have created.
One thing is
certain. The fiscal crisis has not improved since the Liberals took power.
Many believe
the public engagement process is less an act of consultation than of delay. Some
say the ideas it has generated do not reflect the dire state of the
government’s fiscal circumstance. It has received no help from public sector
unions; even the doctors offer only a placebo.
What is left
to advise the Premier and the Minister? Shouldn’t we just wait for whatever the
Minister decides?
I suggest one
simple virtue ought to influence the government’s decisions in advance of, and
during, the Budget presentation. That is integrity.
Honesty and
straightforwardness have been missing from public policy decisions for far too long.
The Tories used subterfuge, intimidation, partisanship, as well as raw power to
advance their goals. Demagoguery worked
for a while, too. But truth, because it contains its own fuel, is better
currency and will last longer. When fortune’s cycle has been run, pixie dust dissolves,
but not the deceit it breeds.
Honesty is a
default to logic; it is evidence based and constitutes the gravity around which
meaningful and enduring public policy issues revolve. The public needs to know
the truth. They need to know that their government respects the virtue no less
than they do.
The trail of
revenue loss in the budgetary materials is something anyone can figure out. The
Wiseman Plan (concocted by Paul Davis’ Minister of Finance last year) forecast five more years of deficit, on top of the four deficits in a row already
experienced; then he stated there would be balanced budgets. The brazen Tory
Finance Minister forecast prices $71-$90/barrel oil over the next five years and omitted any
reference to the capital needed for Muskrat Falls.
Using the
items which received excessive funding (in total, 145% of the average of those of the other
provinces), the new Budget needs to describe a road map for a path to a more
sustainable base.
Indeed, the
current fiscal issues can only be dealt with if it is a complete narrative, one
that pulls no punches. Nothing less should be laid before the public. It will have
credibility only in consequence of its completeness and its factual basis.
If the
province’s financial position is described selectively or is “spun” for a
political purpose, tough medicine will be derived of credibility and get
rejected.
If Nalcor
CEO Ed Martin’s fingerprints are all over Muskrat EY Review, already undercut
by both the choice of Reviewer and its Terms of Reference, the public will be
unsympathetic especially as the reality of an impending doubling of power rates
hits home.
In addition,
not just Muskrat, but the state of Nalcor’s investments need to be laid bare,
especially the degree to which the fall in oil prices have altered their
original thesis.
Other
programs, including expenditures on the proposed Gull Island hydro project,
must be disclosed.
It is
unthinkable that we will suffer program cuts and tax increases as funds are
applied to an “energy warehouse” mandate that was always unwise, and now
plainly dumb.
If lives and
livelihoods are impacted as public funds are wasted for a foolish purpose, not
only will the Liberals be robbed of the moral authority needed to conduct
painful program alignments, there will be hell to pay!
So far, the
Liberals have been very generous to the Tories; though they have no reason to
be.
The blame
game is inherently distasteful. But that is not the same as saying it serves no
purpose or that it degrades politics. On the contrary, any bolstering of bad
policy, especially any outcome re-framed as a loss of good fortune, is not just
bad politics; it reinforces the lie that all politicians are corrupt; that
there is no need for standards of honesty and decency.
This Budget
should tell all; it should pull no punches.
The
integrity manifested in the Budget will constitute the government’s first
opportunity to demonstrate it was and is serious about “change”.
Sheer
honesty and straightforwardness should be its hallmark.
If that is
the case, and the government is decisive too, the medicine may be bitter, but it
holds the best chance it will be swallowed by the public.
