NORTH SPUR: JIM GORDON TRIES AGAIN TO GET SIOBHAN COADY'S ATTENTION

Dr. Stig Bernander

Editor's Note: Canadian Hydro Engineer, Jim Gordon has worked hard to get successive Ministers of Natural Resources, including more recently Siobhan Coady, to take seriously the geotechnical analysis conducted by Swedish scientists Dr. Stig Bernander and Dr. Lennart Elfgren in relation to the North Spur, but without success. 

The Spur is a natural formation which forms part of the dam structure for the Muskrat Falls project. The feature contains clays defined by experts as "sensitive" because under certain circumstances they have the capacity to liquefy and to collapse. The issue is increasingly urgent because Nalcor, in a matter of days, will begin filling the Muskrat reservoir to the 39 meter level. 

PARTY LEADERS ASKED TO SUPPORT INDEPENDENT REVIEW NORTH SPUR SAFETY

Editor's Note: The Muskrat Falls Concerned Citizens Coalition distributed to the media, yesterday, correspondence between Dr. Lennart Elfgren and Dr. Stig Bernander with the Honorable Siobhan Coady, Minister of Natural Resources, together with a letter from Jim Gordon to the Minister. The same correspondence was sent to the leaders of the four political parties together with the request that, if elected, they will commit, prior to reservoir impoundment, to installing an independent geotechnical panel to review the safety of the North Spur. 

MUST THE PEOPLE OF HV-GB AND MUD LAKE LEARN TO LIVE IN HARM'S WAY?

Guest Post by Cabot Martin

Dr Stig Bernander, someone I have the utmost respect for as a technical expert and as a very decent and moral man, continues to try to save us from ourselves at the North Spur.

His most recent contribution - Summing Up of North Spur Stability Issues -  gets right down into the weeds. He demonstrates that based on the little data that Nalcor has, something as basic as filling the reservoir may well trigger a failure of the North Spur.

Fairly basic stuff to overlook or not worry about.

FILLED RESERVOIR WILL CAUSE NORTH SPUR TO FAIL, STUDY PREDICTS

Guest Post by James L. Gordon, P.Eng. (Ret'd)

THE MUSKRAT NORTH SPUR WILL FAIL!

Mr. Robin Dury, an engineering student at the Luleå University of Technology, Department of Civil, Environmental and Natural Resources Engineering, INSA Lyon, has undertaken a geotechnical analysis of the North Spur as part of his studies towards a Master’s degree in Geotechnical Engineering. He concludes that –

For assumed material properties and geometries of failure, the critical load-carrying capacity is below 1000 kN/m whereas a rise of the water level with 21 m (to El. 39m) will give an increased load of Nq  = 2420 kN/m. This is more than twice of what the ridge may stand with the assumed properties.

In other words, the North Spur will fail when the reservoir is filled.

HYDRO ENGINEER WRITES "OPEN LETTER" TO NALCOR CEO STAN MARSHALL

Guest Post Written by James L. Gordon, P.Eng. (Ret'd)

OPEN LETTER TO NALCOR CEO STAN MARSHALL 

Dear Mr. Marshall,

I write concerning safety issues with respect to the Muskrat Falls Project, and specifically concerning the North Spur.

You have probably been advised by your staff that, while the North Spur does indeed present significant technical challenges, they have been addressed by competent professionals, and so are no cause for concern.

In my professional opinion, such a conclusion is incorrect, and dangerously so.

Let me summarize the current situation at the North Spur, as I see it:

The North Spur Dam at Muskrat Falls will be the first dam ever built containing quick (or marine) clay in the dam body, and on a quick clay foundation.

WHY THE NORTH SPUR DAM DESIGN NEEDS REVIEW (A PRIMER)

A non-technical primer on dam design.

Or why the North Spur dam design needs to be reviewed.

Guest Post by Jim Gordon. P. Eng. (Retired)

          In view of the controversy over the North Spur dam design, I have prepared the following brief review of dam design over the ages, to show why the North Spur dam design needs to be reviewed.

Dams have been built for more than 5,000 years, with the first recorded being the Jawa dam in Jordan built about 3,000 BC. Another was the Sadd al-Kafara dam near Cairo, built about 2,850BC. It had a height of 11m and a crest length of 81m. 

The highest ancient dam was built by the Romans in the first century at Subiaco, near Rome, having a height of 50m. 

"NORTH SPUR IN A NUTSHELL" A CALL TO ACTION BY CANADIAN HYDRO ENGINEER

Introduction

“North Spur in a Nutshell” is an outstanding piece of work, not just for its conclusions, but also for the clear, evidence based call to action the analysis contains. 

The Quick Clay stability problem is described in the chillingly objective style of an engineer all too familiar with difficult, potentially costly, and project-threatening problems.

In this Piece, just released to the Uncle Gnarley Blog, the renowned Canadian engineer, James L. Gordon, reduces the problem to terms any layperson can understand.

And James.L.Gordon, P. Eng. (Retired), is no ordinary engineer.

DAN CRUMMELL: THE PEOPLE OF MUD LAKE AWAIT YOUR ANSWER.

Guest Post written by Cabot Martin

My letter of September 11, 2015 to Minister Dan Crummell, on the perils of a North Spur collapse to workers both on the Spur and at the powerhouse site across the river, to downstream residents and to provincial finances alike has, so far, gone unanswered. Perhaps, that is not surprising. Despite the urgent nature of the matter, in the past he has usually taken about a month to reply.

One point not fully covered in my letter concerns the technical analysis on which Nalcor has based its “There’s no problem with the North Spur“ position. Seemingly, it has been adopted without critical analysis by Mr. Crummell.

CONFUSED MINISTER AND A CANADIAN SOLUTION FOR NORTH SPUR

Cabot Martin and his geotechnical engineering advisors are at odds with the Minister of Environment and Conservation, Dan Crummell, on some pretty important issues. I have briefly summarized two of them here, but readers are offered full access to the documents via the links provided below.

The two issues mentioned are:

a)      The Minister claims Nalcor Energy has conducted a proper risk assessment of geotechnical conditions at the North Spur. In his July 30^th 2015 reply to Cabot Martin’s Letter of July 7^th 2015, Dan Crummell says Nalcor has conformed to the Canadian Dam Association (CDA) Dam Safety Guidelines. The advice Martin received suggests that those Guidelines are applicable to “man-made” structures. In other words, they are appropriate for the two concrete structures which will constitute the southern portion of the dam only; not for the North Spur.

b)    The dam break study which Nalcor commissioned Hatch Consultants to perform, and on which the Minister Crummell relied, is based upon arbitrary assumptions which Nalcor insisted the Study should contain.

Let’s look at those two issues more closely and consider a Paper by a Canadian engineering icon which offers a process to resolve them.

PREMIER DAVIS: TEAR DOWN THAT WALL

Last week a retired Swedish geoscientist, industry leader, consultant, Professor, and internationally recognized expert on “Quick Clay”, Dr. Stig Bernander, spent three days studying what he described as a “live” land mass on the lower Churchill River. He was able to personally view, on the ground and from the air, a great many landslides and see physical evidence of active movement over a large area including the "North Spur". 

He spent another four days editing his notes, selecting photographic evidence and lecturing at the LSPU Hall and at Memorial University on the dangers of Nalcor relying upon “outdated” geotechnical analysis of the problem.

Quick Clays are unique, sensitive glaciomarine clays.  The clay deposits, at the North Spur as elsewhere, occurred when sea water levels were much higher.  They are unstable clays. Their peculiar characteristics are known to cause landslides.  When Quick Clay is subjected to sufficient stress, the material may liquefy. (Locally, some call the clays "pug".)

When a person of the stature of Dr. Bernander, having no connection to this Province, is troubled enough to perform this public service, pro bono, you have a right to think there is cause for concern.

Rissa slide, Norway

When the Vice-President of Nalcor, Gilbert Bennett, shows up at Dr. Bernander’s lecture at Memorial University, not to welcome the man or to acknowledge his internationally accepted engineering models for assessing landslide risk, not even to ask him a question, but only to express umbrage against the Professor, you know the Corporation has gotten far too used to not being challenged by competent third parties.  

THE ‘ROCK’ STAR OF “QUICK CLAY”

The biography of Dr. Stig Bernander reads like that of a ‘Rock’ Star except in his case, he is better known for his work with clays rather than rocks, especially “Quick Clay”.  Some of this “sensitive” material is present at the North Spur, the projection of land creating the natural dam at Muskrat Falls.  It is one of the issues which threaten the viability of the project.

Dr. Bernander, you ask?  Who is he and why would you be interested? I will get to those questions in a moment. First, what are “Quick Clays”?

Quick Clays are unique, sensitive glaciomarine clays.  The clay deposits occurred when sea water levels were much higher.  They are unstable clays. Their peculiar characteristics are known to cause landslides.  When Quick Clay is subjected to sufficient stress, the material may liquefy. At Muskrat Falls, Quick Clay could undermine the structural integrity of the North Spur. Remediation is potentially a money pit.  It is a public safety issue, too.

One of the best known and large Quick Clay landslides occurred at Rissa, Norway.  The slide was videoed as it progressed. The event is as exciting as it is horrifying. If you choose to follow the Link, just be patient for the first couple of minutes and the Rissa video will demonstrate why Quick Clay should be taken very seriously. It is the perfect primer in advance of Dr. Bernander’s Lecture. 

Bernander is neither politician nor bureaucrat. He is a scientist; one with long industry experience.