DOES CHES CROSBIE HAVE A FUTURE AS TORY LEADER?

The aftermath of the general election remains dominated by talk of recounts (especially in Labrador West), the NDP’s “balance of power” and, of course, P.C. Leader Ches Crosbie’s unscripted outburst on election night. In Minority Government Likely Short-Lived the Uncle Gnarley Blog allowed Premier Dwight Ball, at best, another year to get his affairs in order. A later Post entitled NDP Leader Alison Coffin Next Finance Minister? described the challenges that a mildly resurgent NDP will encounter as they navigate the terms for supporting Liberal dither.

Of course, the Tories didn’t exactly drop off the face of the Earth, having captured 43% of the popular vote in comparison with the Liberals’ 44%, and winning fifteen Seats. That is reason enough to consider what the election outcome says about the Tory Campaign and what it portends for Ches Crosbie.

MINORITY GOVERNMENT LIKELY SHORT-LIVED

Last Thursday night’s result constitutes the worst possible election outcome.

In other jurisdictions, minority governments are notable by their brevity as much as for their instability and lack of progress on normally intractable problems. We have some of those. Locally, the 1971 election is our singular post-Confederation encounter with minority government. It was marked chiefly by chicanery — inducements to Members to switch Parties — and it was short-lived. We would never have to worry about something like that ever happening again, would we?

Many will see the election outcome as a judgement on Dwight Ball's leadership: his indecision and his lack of forthrightness. Indeed, his poor approval ratings were earned early and got worse. Why he was the centrepiece of the Liberal Campaign ads, I’ll never understand.

PIXIE DUST SHOWERS SPRING ELECTION

Except for the ardent cynic, a sprinkling of magic transforms even the dullest bore. The Liberals hope that the majority of us still believe. That may explain the recent resplendent shower of pixie dust.

In February an MQO opinion survey put the Liberals (44%) and the Tories (42%) in a virtual tie. What has changed since then to bolster Liberal fortunes? Why call the election now rather than later? Why are Liberal election missiles falling from the sky?

In all likelihood, the numbers were not as bad for the Liberals as the MQO Poll indicated. While polls are a mere snapshot in time, any analysis gets weaker as statistics are bundled. The MQO Poll combined “decided” and “leaning” voters.