DOES THE FEDERAL LOAN GUARANTEE HELP YOU SLEEP BETTER?

There are some, including this Blogger, who had hoped the Federal Loan Guarantee (FLG) would not get final approval.  The UARB’S approval of the Maritime Link scotched that possibility. 

It does seem bizarre that critics of the Muskrat Falls Project, in this Province, would look to outside intervention to defeat an unwise, even foolhardy use of public money.  But, when independent assessment is shut down and essential information denied, the options are scarce. 

Now that the Government has prevailed, it is unlikely that thousands of Newfoundlanders and Labradorians will pack our version of “Independence Square” (as the citizens of Ukraine are now doing) to push-back bad policy and to demand the Government’s resignation.

PEERING INTO A POLITICAL PRESSURE COOKER

Those who think about the machinations of politics, even momentarily, must wonder what changes occur in an Administration so challenged and unpopular, its very survival is threatened.   

The Premier’s popularity, at 20%, is the lowest of the Country’s ten First Ministers; newspaper editors and Blogs (including this one) have called for her resignation.  Now the Minister of Finance has quit amidst reports of squabbling and disagreement.  

Is the behaviour of the Premier, of her Ministers, their staff and even of senior public servants affected when the Government is virtually under siege?

The answer is, yes.  The behaviour of most everyone, at the senior level, changes. 

PREMIER, A PROVINCE-WIDE ADDRESS IS ESSENTIAL

The Blog Post "WHY DUNDERDALE CAN'T CONNECT" attempts to explain the underlying reasons the Premier is floundering in the Polls.  The Premier, and her Administration are languishing, in third place, having literally dropped off the political precipice.

That July 1^st Uncle Gnarley missive concluded that “….the Premier must give herself a defined period, say six months, during which to make the positive connection with the electorate….failing this test, the Premier should call it a day”.  

The Premier is into the third month of this interval, and has been 'gone to ground' for much of the summer.  Her popularity is showing no signs of rebound.    

On Saturday the Telegram ran a front page commentary by its chief editorial writer, Russell Wangersky, announcing: "Premier, it is time to go".

The Telegram’s man delivered the message with the respect and dignity that ought to be afforded a First Minister, but there was no equivocation. Said Wangersky, to the Premier, “Your race is run.  You may not know it yet – you may not even want to believe it – but it’s over”.

Again, on Tuesday, Sept. 10 Wangersky wrote a column headlined "Lights on, nobody's home".  

Today's item is also about the Premier's 'loose ends'. It explains how the outstanding issues could severely harm this Province. They speak to the urgency of why the Premier must provide us clarity, right away.

THE NALCOR STATE: A CLEAR AND PRESENT DANGER

Likely, most people believe that the Muskrat Falls Project is out of reach of cancellation.  That may be true; still, the public expects their Government to keep a tight rein on Project costs and to report frequently. 

So far, the Dunderdale Administration has shown no sign that it is either concerned, or that it even cares, whether the public is kept informed.

The Government has sanctioned Muskrat Falls based upon a series of dodgy and ever changing arguments.  But, having passed over complete discretion on how billions of dollars of public money will be spent, to a cabal of unelected bureaucrats at Nalcor, represents an unparalleled dereliction of duty, by elected officials.

The performance of Nalcor CEO Ed Martin, during its recent Annual General Meeting (AGM), is significant.  Russell Wangersky raised the issue in the June 30th edition of the Telegram.  He cited several specific examples of the Corporation’s refusal to disclose essential information regarding major Project contracts and expenditures. In a nutshell, Nalcor is making copious use of the “can’t tell you” strategy: it responds to many enquiries, with either “no answer” or “too commercially sensitive to answer.” As a backgrounder to this piece, Mr. Wangersky’s Column, "Variations on a theme - questions and non-answers", is well worth reading. 

DO WE NEED MORE ROCKING CHAIRS? (Part I)

Most people, who spend time in a rocking chair, find it an incomparable source of relaxation.  Not Josiah Brake.  When he says he is going to ‘rock’, he means, not that he is going to shake, but that he is going to ‘think’.  

Josiah isn’t like most thinking people.  Others assess issues and resolve problems while they drive to town, split a bit of fire wood or sit in the doctor’s office.  Not Josiah Brake. He needs to deliberate without distraction; employing a single mindedness only time, quietude and a gentle rocking motion, comfortably affords.

Annus Orndatra

The knock on the door reverberated in my head like dynamite. It was a late night, the 20^th Anniversary concert tour of Great Big Sea was spectacular. As the cliché goes, it was the soundtrack to my life. Now, I was feeling the ill-effects of the night out. My head never felt like this 20 year ago.

There was only one person who would be knocking on my door at 7:30 AM on a Sunday morning. My wife turned to me and said, “for god’s sake go let him in, before he knocks again”.

Wearing nothing more than my housecoat, I went to the door to let my old friend in…

“Nav, it looks like you chased a fart through a bag of nails. The evidence clearly suggest that it was a large night”.

With that the old economist passed me over a cup of coffee. I was thankful, and gestured for my friend to sit down.

“Nav, I am a little disappointed that I was not invited to your anniversary celebration, especially considering the role I have played".

The lift in his eye was a sure sign that Uncle Gnarley was poking fun. Yet, the fear of forgetting my wedding anniversary momentarily paralyzed my thoughts.

BUDGET 2013. THE PAIN HAS ONLY BEGUN

John Meaney: Rant N' Roar

Likely, I was not the only one with a sense of unease after last week’s Provincial Budget.  Two essential facts remain inescapable.  The current fiscal mess is a product of poor management rather than one of resource revenue volatility.  Secondly, Budget 2013 makes abundantly clear that “right sizing” the public sector, after a decade of fast money, is easier said than done. 

A few weeks ago, the Minister of Finance threw out a forecast deficit of $1.6 billion.  In the end, the Budget recorded a deficit of $564 million.   

The Budget numbers are one thing, but the question most people want answered is: has the Government reclaimed control over spending now that per capita expenditures have reached 150% of the Canadian average? Have we backed away from the fiscal cliff?  Is the “10 year Sustainability Plan” a “fix” for bad budgetary behavior?

PLEASE INCLUDE CHANGE. A BUDGET PRIMER (Part II)

In "What The Premier Must Do. A Budget Primer (Part I)", I suggested a process in which the Premier should become engaged, in order to put her Administration on a sound policy track and give focus to one of the most important jobs of any Administration; the task of crafting  a Budget.  I proposed that the Premier go outside Government and assemble a group of trusted advisors.  While, on the surface, the advice may seem contrary, her Cabinet Ministers are not up to the job of helping her, and, the most senior bureaucrats do not have the Premier’s ear.
A Budget should not be merely a collection of line items detailing revenues and expenditures.   It should reflect a philosophy of governance; of political management.  A thoughtful Budget ought to be accompanied by a statement of fundamental principles that guide the limits to be imposed on any deficit, debt, pension plan shortfall and other critical financial decisions with long term implications.  Other Governments do not follow this practice either, though they ought to begin. 

What the Premier Must Do. A Budget Primer (Part I)

Like a Throne Speech, a Budget ought to reflect the Government’s philosophy and ideas about how revenue should be generated and spent.  It should avoid ideology, but it ought to reveal how the practices of one Government might be differentiated from those of another. In addition, the Budget should be guided by a set of principles that will govern its decisions regarding the deficit, debt, pension plan shortfall and other critical financial decisions with long term implications. When Budgets become more about choices than simply about more spending we will get to see whether it has more ideas than Muskrat Falls and fattening up the public service.

Whatever a Government’s priorities, there is no substitute for careful administrative and financial management, day-in-day-out.  The process of making small changes, achieving more efficiencies, strengthening programs and conducting executive management reviews is not the sexy stuff that attracts Reporters’ attention; but, it is exactly what, if understood by sensible leadership, will keep bad news at bay. 

BUDGET DEFICITS AND COMMON SENSE

“May you have sensible leadership”, is a mantra that ought to replace our copious use of the Chinese proverb, “May you live in interesting times”.  Most of us don’t recognize good leadership until it disappears; appreciating it only in the context of more recent comparisons or with the hindsight of history.  Naturally, we always hope for the energetic and visionary type, though its arrival is as fleeting as an apparition in a warm mist. I’ll take the sensible kind any day.  That will keep us on course in case the visionaries never arrive or we are unlucky enough to be visited by the quixotic and absolutely reckless.  Regrettably, the latter group recently got elected.  “What is in their wine?” seems a suitable, if somewhat immodest, question.

A recent MQO Poll plotted the Dunderdale Government’s popularity in free fall, since the last election.  A 19 point difference separates the MQO numbers and the popular vote of the 2011.  The figure offers proof, not only of how strongly the Premier basked in the afterglow of the Williams firmament, but how irresponsibly she squandered the goodwill of election night.