The by-election might have been a simple
affair. It almost was. That the Liberals won, (53.5% of the vote),
was a forgone conclusion. But, these
pesky NDPers won almost 33% of the vote.
While one should not take anything away from the Liberal’s victory, it
would be a serious oversight if one failed to acknowledge the importance of the
NDP support, at this time.
In 2003 General Election, Liberal
Yvonne Jones captured 59.8% of the vote; in 2007 she won 73%, in 2011 it was
71.1%. Yvonne’s overwhelming personal support did not make either race a real contest.
Dennis Normore, of the P.C.’s (also the current Tory candidate) took 31.8% of
the vote in 2003; slightly less in 2007 and in 2011 a different P.C. candidate
won a mere 26.8% of the votes cast. For the Tories, this was not friendly
territory.
The Liberals may be celebrating, but the message of this by-election result will likely not be lost on Dwight Ball.
A second and minor point is that when
the governing Party perceives it has a “shot” at winning a riding, held by an
Opposition Party, the cash register is flung open and the Party’s financial,
organizational and PR capacity is liberally made accessible in the pursuit. The Cartwright-L’Anse au Clair by-election was
not one of those contests. This was a
by-election in which only the Liberals could lose face.
A little history will offer
perspective.
The NDP got around to running a
Candidate in 2011, but garnered only 2.5% of the vote.
Even Premier Danny Williams failed
impress this solidly Liberal riding.
In 1996 General Election, when Yvonne
Jones and Danny Dumaresque duked it out, the Tories barely registered a
presence in the District, coming up with a mere 45 votes.
The best Tory showings in the District
(pre-redistribution) occurred in 1979 when Peckford mania was sweeping the
Province.
In April, 1979 Election, smelling the
possibility that the District could be taken, Peckford surprised his Campaign
Manager and Campaign Staff, including this scribe, with the announcement that
he would fly into the District personally, within a day or so of the Writ
having been dropped. At that time of
year, it was a concern that if the weather turned bad, the Chief Campaigner might
find himself marooned in fog (or worse), and unable to fly back out. But,
Peckford knew that no Premier, including Smallwood, had visited the District up
to that time. He hoped his gamble might pay off with a Tory win, given how well
he was connecting with rural voters.
Peckford flew in and out the same day,
escaping any delays feared by Party organizers; his Candidate, in that
Election, took 44.46% of ballots cast; the best Tory vote ever, in the post-Confederation
era. Subsequent election results, for
the Tories, paled in comparison.
Bottom line: the Liberal Party ‘own’ Cartwright-L’Anse
au Clair and have owned it forever. Tonight’s win confirms it still does.
The NDP would love to have overturned the
Riding, placing the Liberal’s Official Opposition status, in the House of
Assembly, in jeopardy. That was never
going to happen. But, don’t think the NDP a loser in this campaign.
The NDP would have to go back to 1985
to find any support in southern Labrador (in the district then known as Eagle
River); a local NDPer, named Claude Rumbolt, chalked up 22.7% of the vote.
After that election, the Party as much as disappeared.
Reportedly for the current by-election,
the NDP sent in several of its best names to campaign. Any success at all, would have outdone the paltry
44 votes it received in the 2011 Election.
But, Lorraine Michael does not have to claim some pseudo victory. After literally being absent, the NDP suddenly
goes in and takes 32.9% of the vote! That result cannot be discounted.
I recently wrote that the ascension of
the NDP and Michael, to first place, in the contest of Public Opinion Polls,
suggests that the Tory vote in rural Newfoundland is collapsing; its support, in
the St. John’s area, having already dissipated.
I believe that the Cartwright L’Anse
Au Clair by-election is hard evidence of this trend. 13.6% is much less than one-half of the
support the Tories could typically claim.
It’s a disastrous number for the P.C.’s, even given its poor history in
the riding.
The Liberals may be celebrating, but the message of this by-election result will likely not be lost on Dwight Ball.
Still, it is the Dunderdale Tories that
are under the most severe stress; the NDP are eating their lunch.
Dunderdale shouldn’t take too much
comfort from Christy Clark’s big come back in B.C. But, she can always hope.