MUSKRAT COST ESTIMATES "A COMPLETE FALSIFICATION", SAYS ENGINEER

What would you think, having received these comments from a long time professional engineer on the Muskrat Falls project? He writes:

“I could not put up with falsifying information anymore.

To begin with, the original cost of $6.2 billion on which the project was approved was a complete falsification. The estimate was deliberately kept low — below $7 billion, so as to appear favourable relative to the cost of thermal power generation.

The likely costs were known about three years ago, but Nalcor Management kept it a secret, steadfastly denying that there were major schedule delays and cost overruns, until it was no longer possible to hide the true status with the election of a new Provincial Government.

The unit prices used were ridiculously low. The Management at the time knew this.

VARDY UPSET PUB YIELDS TO NALCOR OVER DARKNL REVIEW

Guest Post Written by David Vardy

PUB INVESTIGATION INTO SUPPLY ISSUES AND POWER OUTAGES

Dark NL sparked an investigation by the PUB into the reliability of our power system, an investigation which is going into its fourth year. It has received little media coverage, despite its great importance.

On January 20, 2017 the Public Utilities Board (PUB) issued an Order, P.U. 2(2017), striking down expert evidence filed by the Grand River Keeper Labrador (GRK), a registered intervenor. The Order is part of the PUB’s investigation into supply issues and power outages which they announced on January 17, 2014. The investigation covers matters relating to the reliability and availability of power both before and after interconnection with Muskrat Falls and was prompted by a number of power outages which took place in 2013 and early 2014. The Board’s Order has the effect of removing expert evidence relating to two major risks to the power system from further consideration during the investigation into the supply of power. The purpose of this post is to recommend solutions to this problem.

IS NALCOR RIFE WITH CONFLICTS OF INTEREST?

The public is constantly bombarded with political "spin" as governments, institutions, politicians, and those who profit in one way or another by supporting those views, attempt to win the hearts and minds of the ill-informed.

But enormous sums are being wasted at Nalcor, and "spin" can't mask a project that has doubled in cost. That has been confirmed by a multitude of engineers.

The bevy of emails that arrive in my Inbox — from professional engineers — describe the problems in detail.

For me, having followed years of blather from the likes of Ed Martin, Gil Bennett, and politicians too, those engineers counter their "BS" in its many forms.

Mismanagement rankles the best engineers; they don't want an unsuccessful project appearing on their resumes. Besides, they resent being a part of something that is causing the province financial ruin when they know that bad politics, misinformation and contrived assumptions were merely precursors to a mismanaged project.

And while poorly-written contracts, ill-chosen managers, incompetence, and inexperience all take their toll, no problem is as offensive as conflicts of interest. Many professional engineers believe the crown corporation is rife with them.

RURAL NL NEEDS TO SAVE ITSELF

There are only a half million of us. And one half that number is so dispersed that it inhibits the achievement of the scale economies needed for normal commercial growth and for efficient public administration.

We have known those facts for a long time but, as a society, we have also affirmed that the higher marginal cost of maintaining hundreds of small communities is an acceptable one because it means preserving our rural character. Rural is who we are — even the more urban of us claim it as their identity.

While it was tough at times over the years, successive governments concocted budgets which maintained a reasonable balance between demand and the affordability of rural infrastructure and services. With the arrival of high oil prices — and low interest rates — successive Administrations engaged in, by any modern historical standard, outrageously excessive public spending. They watched as labour inflation — due to ill-staged megaprojects — helped distort a small economy. These economic factors, and a runaway boondoggle at Muskrat Falls, now threaten the whole province — but especially our rural communities.

"OPEN LETTER" TO BERNARD COFFEY, CLERK OF THE EXECUTIVE COUNCIL, NL

Guest Post By Concerned Newfoundlander and Professional Engineer

Mr. Bernard Coffey

Clerk

Executive Council

Government of Newfoundland and Labrador

Dear Sir:

Re:  If You Are Not Part Of The Solution, You Are Part Of The Problem

            I very much welcomed the announcement in September, 2016 of your appointment as Clerk of the Executive Council. Giving leadership to the day-to-day running of government is critical, especially in these challenging times. The Muskrat Falls project is certainly one of the government's many challenges. For that reason, I was looking forward to your assuming the role of Chair of the Muskrat Falls Oversight Committee and to much needed change.

            As you know, this Committee was set up in March of 2014 by then Premier Tom Marshall. Ostensibly, he was responding to citizens’ concerns over how poorly the project was managed, to the enormous cost overruns and delay in the project schedule.

The Oversight Committee was touted by the Minister of Natural Resources, at the time, as having an independent oversight role, one akin to that performed by the PUB. The current Premier, then Liberal leader of the Opposition, Dwight Ball, expressed the position that a committee of bureaucrats reporting to Cabinet is merely window dressing. As far as I can see, he was dead right.

PREMIER NOT READY FOR CBC's ANTHONY GERMAIN

One of the most worrisome aspects of Premier Dwight Ball's leadership is confirmation that he does not understand the critical issues facing the province and he is blissfully content in his ignorance.

Former Premier Dunderdale suffered the same malady. She, too, seemed confused — especially with respect to Nalcor, the Muskrat Falls project, and the relationship between development costs and market value of the power. The only difference is that Ball is less imperious.

Premiers Tom Marshall and Paul Davis were slightly more articulate but both men either did not understand their briefs or deliberately misled the public. They, like Danny Williams, were never reticent about boasting of the province’s good fortune — Newfoundland and Labrador, they said, was going to earn hundreds of millions from the Muskrat Falls project. Of course, it just wasn’t true.

With the election of Premier Ball, mindlessness to facts received no appeal.

CATHY BENNETT: MYTH VS. REALITY + TOP TEN PICKS 2016

To start the New Year, it's always fun to look back on last year's work — if only to see what stories most attracted your interest. Below I have listed ten selections from 2016. Those choices are based entirely on the number of pageviews each claimed, according to the Google. There is just one caveat: I have not included stories posted during the past month, even though each attracted a large number of readers. I felt they were posted recently enough to be easily accessed.

My (admittedly incorrect) prediction that “Cathy Bennett’s Days in Finance are Numbered” (the Minister has outlasted reasonable constraints on the word "limited") garnered over 20,000 pageviews and the number one spot. Still, the post warrants further comment.

Finance is a key portfolio. And, for a long time, the Minister has been perceived by this blogger as a politician in a rather precarious — even tenuous — spot.