EXPERT PANEL NEEDED NOW TO EXAMINE NL'S FINANCIAL MESS

Noticeably more people, including readers of this Blog, want to see public discussion of a resolution to the financial mess created by Muskrat. While their numbers are still small, their voices are discernible. It seems that most people are still in denial as to the scope of the problem. Delusion causes them to believe that government would never imperil the solvency of the province.  

Yet, as one Muskrat watcher observed recently, the public will be in a "rage when they learn just the simple truths" of what the project will cost them in relation to the cost per KWh of thermal generation at Holyrood.  Likely, that rage will be compounded when people learn the extent to which the Tories and the Liberals failed to share with them the whole truth of the debacle.

MUSKRAT FALLS: BETTING ON THE WRONG HORSE

Co-written with PlanetNL

Netflix features an interesting PBS documentary called The Race Underground dealing with the technological, political and social challenges of building the first U.S. electric subway, in Boston, in the late 1800s. 

The project had a lot of naysayers. Some were concerned about the destruction of the historic city (especially Boston Common, America’s oldest public park); others about the enormous financial risk described as “… a jump into the unknown.”  The superstitious and the religious feared that going underground meant getting close to “the netherworld”. Then there were the dangers of electricity.

A vote “by the narrowest of margins” brought the matter to a close and the subway was built. The people loved it. The subway cars were clean and clothes ceased being fouled by sooty coal-fired steam engines. Congestion in downtown Boston disappeared and allowed even more people to come in. The suburbs grew rapidly. Not lost on anyone was the presence of far fewer stinky, slow horses on the streets. For investors, the new system was more profitable than the old one. 

ED AND STAN WOULDN’T LIKE GORD

Forgetfulness must be nature’s screen; one that affords people the capacity to not be weighed down by the skewed and self-serving utterances of others.  Gord, an old University friend, had a single word for them… which I plan to share with you.

Not surprisingly, the press release recently issued by former Nalcor CEO Ed Martin on the heels of comments by Stan Marshall comes to mind.

Ostensibly, the current CEO was attempting a little morale building — at the expense of the truth — following the successful transmission of Upper Churchill “recall” power across the Labrador Island Link. Understandably, he couldn’t wait for VP Gil Bennett to get the lead out on the generation component of the Muskrat Falls project.

JIM GORDON'S FINAL COMMENTS ON THE NORTH SPUR

THE NORTH SPUR – MY FINAL COMMENTS
Guest Post by James L. Gordon P.Eng.(Retired)

Way back in 2014, my interest in the North Spur started when I read a short book by Cabot Martin titled “Muskrat Madness”. It concentrated on the questionable stability of a natural side dam called the North Spur which contained layers of sandy silt and sensitive clay. I emailed Cabot, a member of the 2041 committee, on August 27th commenting on his book, and have commented several times on the Uncle Gnarley blog on the North Spur safety. NALCOR describes the Spur as -

The north spur forms a natural earthfill dam, with a crest elevation of about 60 m, and about one km long, which connects the rock knoll to the north bank of the valley……. The crest width varies from about 1,000 m at its north end to about 70m at its south end where it has been narrowed by erosion and landslide activity in the past. The head across the spur is presently 16 m from river level upstream to downstream. The impounding of the reservoir to El. 39 m will increase the hydraulic head across the spur to 36 m and stabilization measures are then necessary to ensure its long-term stability under both normal and extreme water levels. The soils forming the spur consist of a complex interbedded sequence of relatively low permeability silty sands and sands, and sensitive marine clays.

CHES CROSBIE TESTED: "MISTAKE" TO REPLACE MADNESS?

The recent Telegram interview with newly-minted Tory leader Ches Crosbie leaves a disturbing impression of how he will address the challenges of a Party recently described on this Blog as “broken”.

The Telegram article saw Crosbie shifting the blame for the Muskrat Falls project onto the Liberals. “What they should have done was make sure that a proper stopgo analysis was done as soon as they got into office. They frittered that opportunity away,” he was quoted as saying. Crosbie is correct on the point, but he needs to deal with the ghastly mistakes of his own Party before he is ready to throw stones at his rival.

Not to his credit, Crosbie asserted: “… PCs are like everyone else in this world: we’re only human. If mistakes were made we’ll have to take the approach that that was then, and this is now,” he told the reporter.

TONED DOWN, REDACTED WITH DELETIONS: DID NALCOR WRITE THE INDEPENDENT ENGINEER'S REPORT? (PART II)

The following is Nalcor VP Gilbert Bennett sharing, in his words, a “mark-up” of the very first Independent Engineer’s Report on the Muskrat Falls project. Bennett is sending the email to Ed Martin, Paul Harrington, James Meaney, and PR types Karen O’Neill and Dawn Dalley. The email reads:

Hello All:

Attached is a mark-up of the November 29 report. Proposed redactions are highlighted in red. Once we’re all good we can lock these in. Once Jim has circulated the appendixes from the November 29 report, I will update accordingly for the full package.

If you have any changes, please let me know…

Regards,

Gilbert

First, just in case you missed it, what Gilbert Bennett is in possession of and is “marking-up” and seeking “changes” in is not a Nalcor Report. It is, ostensibly, the “independent” work of the so-called “Independent Engineer” for the Muskrat Falls project. The year was 2013. In all, there have been a total of 20 IE reports made public since that time. We can reasonably assume that Nalcor has had a hand in each one.  

NALCOR ALLOWED TO SECRETLY CENSOR REPORTS OF INDEPENDENT ENGINEER (PART I)

Imagine if the Auditor General allowed the Department or Agency it is auditing to edit or redact parts of its Report to the House of Assembly. Wouldn’t the public lose all respect and trust afforded to that Office?

Evidence has now been uncovered showing that the “independence” expected of the Independent Engineer for the Muskrat Falls project, on behalf of the Government of Canada, was never established; that at the very beginning Nalcor was permitted to review, edit and redact the Reports before they became public.

The issue of independence was always a worry for the small group of critics of the project. Such scepticism was captured by an Uncle Gnarley Blog Post entitled How Independent is the Independent Engineer? It raised the question following the IE’s first Report (November 29, 2013).  Material evidence of complicity between the IE and Nalcor, which only recently came to light, suggests that those suspicions were justified.

NORTH SPUR: THE ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM

Guest Post by David Vardy

Sometimes revelations occur and information comes to light which sheds real insight into the mysteries of Muskrat Falls. Uncle Gnarley has just reported on such revelations. Through an ATIPPA request our avuncular friend secured correspondence between the Premier and SNC Lavalin which offers insights into a number of interrelated matters, not the least of which is the relationship between government and Nalcor. Also intertwined in these exchanges are concerns about water management, liquefaction of sensitive clays and methylmercury contamination.  

Uncle Gnarley reported on these mysteries in his post at "Extremely Frustrated" Premier Goes To SNC-Lavalin For Advice.  The Premier wrote to SNC Lavalin to seek advice on the impact of raising and lowering water levels upon erosion of the river banks on the Churchill River. The response from SNC Lavalin urged caution with respect to such variations in water levels, similar to the advice rendered to the advice rendered to the Joint Panel by Dr. Gregory Brooks while dealing with the North Spur.

"EXTREMELY FRUSTRATED" PREMIER GOES TO SNC-LAVALIN FOR ADVICE

The following statement is not correct:

“Running at full output, Churchill Falls (CF), would discharge about 2000 cubic metres per second into the Churchill River. Assuming no reservoir draw down, this level of discharge from CF would by itself provide about 630 MW of production at Muskrat Falls. We could run MF at a higher output level for a period of time and draw down the MF reservoir… we could keep it at Muskrat Falls as well as anywhere else.”

That was Gil Bennett talking a couple of years ago to law student and political Blogger, John Samms, who is now on staff in the Premier’s Office. Note the word “drawdown” to which I will return.

At the time Bennett was telling Samms how Nalcor intended to access surplus power from the Upper Churchill; the amount that exceeded what Bennett erroneously thought was the full contractual power commitment to Hydro Quebec. That assumption didn’t work out too well for Nalcor, the Quebec Superior Court having ruled that Hydro Quebec is entitled to all the power that the Upper Churchill can generate. The Water Management Agreement, intended to coordinate the flow of water, was stillborn too.

LIBERAL PARTY WILL IGNORE THE ABACUS POLL AT THEIR PERIL

The most recent Abacus Poll reflects a NL society increasingly aware of its fiscal circumstance. A realism long missing has returned. Six in ten people now see budget deficits and jobs for the young as a very big problem.

Infrastructure, jobs in general, and health care are matters of similarly high concern. Just possibly the public possesses fewer expectations of their political leadership than even the politicians believe. Scepticism seems to underscore the new Abacus Poll, and for this reason alone it a refreshing read.

Polls are frequently less a reflection on the subjects assessed than of the populace whose views are being aggregated. It is hard not to sense in the Abacus data that NL is in a state of readiness for change.