Guest Post written by Cabot Martin:
For over a year now, I have been privileged to have the advice of Jim
Gordon on the North Spur issue at Muskrat Falls via long phone calls and
countless emails – when I have cited him, I’ve usually referred to
him simply as a “very experienced retired hydro engineer” –
Mr. Gordon is, in fact, one of Canada’s most pre-eminent Hydro
Engineers.
A graduate in civil engineering from Aberdeen University (First
Class Honours), he retains his no nonsense Scottish roots.
His bio reads well.
Only Canadian chosen by the prestigious UK based International
Water Power & Dam Construction Magazine’s as one of the world’s top 60
hydro engineers from 1949 to 2009.
Winner of the ultra-prestigious Rickey Medal by the American Society of
Civil Engineers; recipient of a Distinguished Service Award by the Canadian
Electrical Association.
Worked in 15 countries, and for 9 years he was the Vice-President Hydro with the respected firm of Montreal Engineering; involved in the design of 45 hydro dams; Chief Design Engineer for 6 hydro projects which received awards “for excellence in design” by the Association of Consulting Engineers of Canada.
Practiced as a private consultant and served on many Hydro Review
Boards, including for Newfoundland and Labrador Hydro.
Authored or co-authored 90 papers in the hydro field and published 44 articles on an array of hydro projects. Mr. Gordon is an exponent of the Hydro Review Board method of preventing bad dam construction decisions.
His credentials are unassailable.
And now he has stepped forward on the Hatch North Spur Dam Break Study
dated June 26, 2015 carried out under constraints by Nalcor.
As set out
in the last paragraph of his new report (below), a dam breach at the North spur
would likely result in a new river channel at the North Spur eroded down to
somewhere between about sea level and 27m below sea level (and cut back far
upriver).
As he says
such a development is so far below the 20.5m above sea level erosion limit
imposed by Nalcor, that a re-evaluation of the Hatch dam break analysis should
be undertaken, without a limitation on the erosion depth.
ALERT. This
is no small technical point; restriction by Nalcor of the level of erosion
drove Hatch’s modelling of North Spur dam break impacts.
Erosion to
sea level or 27m below sea level would see the Lower Churchill River cut an
entirely new river channel where the North Spur is now located leaving all the
powerhouse/dam/spillway facilities now under construction on the south side of
the Lower Churchill riverless, waterless, high and dry and of zero economic
value.
Leaving this
checker uncovered is inexplicable.
The failure
of the North Sour is the single greatest risk facing the Muskrat Falls project.
One must ask
if the extent of this Project Risk was fully disclosed to bondholders,
financiers and the senior federal bureaucrats who recommended federal
involvement in this project.
I leave the
impact of such a catastrophic event on the calculation of downstream damage and
loss of life to further analysis.
__________________________________________________________________
Related to this Post:
CONFUSED MINISTER AND A CANADIAN SOLUTION FOR THE NORTH SPUR
__________________________________________________________________
Related to this Post:
CONFUSED MINISTER AND A CANADIAN SOLUTION FOR THE NORTH SPUR
NORTH SPUR DAM BREAK ANALYSIS by James L. Gordon, P. Eng.
_________________________________________________________________________
This issue has been the subject of previous posts on Uncle Gnarley; I will leave it to Mr. Gordon to set out his point of view (received in final form August 26,2015).
Typical of his Aberdeen roots, he signs the piece below simply as “James
L. Gordon P.Eng. (Retired)”.
