A DECADE OF SQUANDERED OPPORTUNITY by JM

JM’s Budget Colloquy comprises a series of Posts which ran during the summer, 2015. The Colloquy traces the origins of the Province’s current fiscal crisis and offers suggestions as to how we might address a situation threatening our society’s economic viability.

Using a decade of Budget data, readers are treated to an explanation of the exigencies of our financial woes through careful explanation, graphs, and exhibits.  The “numbers” are digested in a way intended to assist the lay person to comprehend what is often an obscure and arcane subject.

The seven "summer" Posts have been combined with JM’s two most recent; giving both preface and postscript to this extraordinary work. The title “A Decade of Squandered Opportunity” serves as a warning, as much as conclusion.

"PERFECT STORM" NOT SOLVED BY INDECISION

There’s no joy to be found in poking fun at the new Liberal Government’s dithering over the province’s fiscal crisis. See Budget Consultations: Wait for the Colouring Books.

There is only worry that they are not up to the challenge, or don’t fully understand it.

That we are in the midst of an ill-timed and poorly conceived public relations/consultation campaign is particularly troubling, and not just because weighty decisions are delayed.

The idea of asking people to participate in an exercise, in the first place, without offering them the tools (and I don’t mean colouring books) perquisite to a meaningful discussion of ideas to deal with the problem, is inconsistent with a legitimate claim to and desire for public engagement.

The perilous state of our finances should have been met with a Stage I, the "no brainer" list of decisions; crisis needs an immediate response.

324 STEEL SUPPORTS SUBSTANDARD OR MISSING WHEN WATERFORD VALLEY HIGH OPENED, REPORT CONFIRMS

On November 4, 2015 the Uncle Gnarley Blog reported that the new Waterford Valley High School, located on Topsail Road, was permitted to open with structural deficiencies, last year.  

When parents inquired, an official of NLESD told them in an email: “Inspections of our school identified some walls requiring lateral supports; these are partition walls between classrooms”.

Ostensibly, NLESD wanted parents to believe only 'some' walls and 'only' walls between classrooms were affected, as if those deficiencies were unimportant.

DELUSION AND THE ORIGINS OF A DEBT SPIRAL

Guest Post Written by "JM"

As a regular follower of provincial politics[1] and current affairs, I was generally aware that spending by the provincial government had increased, since 2006, to levels well outpacing inflation.  Yet it was not until the release of the 2015 Budget, and the province’s “5 Year Plan”[2] for fiscal recovery, that I awakened to true state of the provinces finances.  The $1.3 billion projected deficit in that year was enough to garner attention. 

However, it was the government’s prediction of a nearly $2 billion increase in revenue, during the period 2015-2020, as the main driver for a return to balanced budgets, that seemed unlikely enough to be incredulous.  

EXPERT COMPARES NORTH SPUR WITH SITE OF MAJOR NORWEGIAN LANDSLIDE

RISSA LANDSLIDE AND THE NORTH SPUR

Guest Post Written by Jim Gordon, P.Eng. (Retired)

On the 29th of April 1978, a marine clay landslide devastated large areas of the rural district of Rissa in mid-Norway, near Trondheim. One person died while 13 farms, 2 homes, a cabin and a community centre, were taken by the clay masses.

By good fortune there were two amateur photographers in the vicinity with movie cameras who were able to capture the earth movements. One had to run for his life! These have been included in a very interesting 21 minute documentary entitled "The Quick Clay Landslide at Rissa - 1978 (English Commentary)" available on the Link.

It is well worth looking at, since the soil characteristics at Rissa are similar to the soil characteristics in the North Spur, as will be shown. It is a “must see” for anyone interested in the North Spur.

BUDGET CONSULTATIONS: WAIT FOR THE COLOURING BOOKS

The voice coming over VOCM radio said he is the Premier.

"We have never been into the financial situation we are into, right now...the “province is facing a difficult fiscal reality…” the voice said.

He promised “decisive action….”

"Difficult decisions have to be made”, his Finance Minister intoned.

The Minister of Public Engagement said the Press Conference was about a “…call to action".

THE BUDGET COLLOQUY: THE FINAL CHAPTER?

Guest Post written by "JM"

The final post intended to conclude the Budget Colloquy on the Uncle Gnarley Blog did not appear during the Summer, as intended.  It was just as well. The pre-Christmas budget “Update” has provided a more current, but no less grim, appraisal of our worsening problem.

The mid-year budget "Update" has shown that the government has experienced both a collapse in revenues, and, unbelievably, an increase in program spending  during 2015:    

KEPT SECRET: REPORT REVEALS BIG ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES ON SITE OF NEW VIRGINIA PARK ELEMENTARY SCHOOL

A significant environmental problem is still present, underground, at the site of the new Virginia Park Elementary School. The issue needs to be exposed to the public, and better understood by everyone, before construction continues; that is if the new school should be built on this site at all. 

This Post is intended to "kick-start" that overdue conversation and release the, until now, secret Report.

Here are the salient facts:

The provincial government has been in possession, since April 2015, of a document entitled “DRAFT FINAL REPORT ON SUPERVISION OF CONTAMINATED SOIL REMOVAL DURING SITE PREPARATION WORK”, New Virginia Park Elementary School Site, St. John’s, NL.

As the title suggests, contaminated material has already been removed from the area where the structure is located. But the Report confirms that heavy metals and other dangerous metals are still present in the soil, at least along the north and northeast boundary of the site. The area of contamination remains undefined. The contaminants have the potential to threaten human health.

WHY THE NORTH SPUR DAM DESIGN NEEDS REVIEW (A PRIMER)

A non-technical primer on dam design.

Or why the North Spur dam design needs to be reviewed.

Guest Post by Jim Gordon. P. Eng. (Retired)

          In view of the controversy over the North Spur dam design, I have prepared the following brief review of dam design over the ages, to show why the North Spur dam design needs to be reviewed.

Dams have been built for more than 5,000 years, with the first recorded being the Jawa dam in Jordan built about 3,000 BC. Another was the Sadd al-Kafara dam near Cairo, built about 2,850BC. It had a height of 11m and a crest length of 81m. 

The highest ancient dam was built by the Romans in the first century at Subiaco, near Rome, having a height of 50m. 

WANTED: A FEW SENIOR PUBLIC SERVANTS WITH SPINE

"Speaking truth to power" is a euphemism for powerful people taking a stand contrary to the one held by those more powerful. 

In “Old Tales and New of Leadership, Organizational Culture, and Ethics”, a Paper by James O'Toole, the author writes that “Speaking truth to power is perhaps the oldest and, certainly, one of the most difficult of ethical challenges because to do so entails personal danger.”

The popular cliché "shooting the messenger" is recognizable for the risk of exercising moral courage by one “unlucky enough” to have to speak, honestly, to a superior; one able to demote and fire or, if you happen to be employed in the government of North Korea, a fate far worse. Our senior public servants don't have to worry about that. Yet, as O’Toole states plainly, "nobody likes the bringer of bad news."

When Dwight Ball and Cathy Bennett delivered the “Fiscal Update” on December 23, 2015 the utterance of “not a crisis” caused one to conclude the very first days of the new Liberal Administration were not filled with warnings of the province’s accelerated journey off a fiscal cliff.  It seems no thoughtful analysis, from the most powerful senior public servants, was delivered to the pair.