PlanetNL20: Island Load Forecast Still Wrong
To sanction the Muskrat Falls project, Nalcor relied on their development of a steadily growing electricity load forecast on the Island. The assumptions used have proven so weak that in 2016 Nalcor decreased the total Island energy load forecast out to 2040 by 25%. That’s a major error for any self-respecting utility to make. By putting forward the 2016 revision, Nalcor has quietly admitted their prime reason for Muskrat sanction, needing a lot of power soon, was untrue.
This posting will challenge why the latest Nalcor load forecast still includes 10% net load growth leading up to 2040 instead of declining. Does Nalcor believe this province has insatiable electricity demand at any price? Do they remain shockingly ignorant of global trends and energy alternatives? It appears their revised forecast was a significant step toward reality but not all the way there. The analysis also begs the question, shouldn’t a proper pre-sanction load forecast have also pointed to declining power needs instead of increasing?