Monday, 31 December 2018

REFLECTIONS AND THE TOP TEN POSTS 2018

Not surprisingly, the Muskrat Falls Project took centre stage — again — in 2018, while in the last quarter the Commission of Inquiry stole the spotlight, including among the mainstream media.

The Inquiry heard a sordid tale and irrepressible proof that that the project was based on false premises. The integrity of the sanctioning process was undermined by a number of disclosures including confirmation that other options (power from Hydro Quebec and LNG) in addition to the Isolated Island option (small hydro, wind and thermal) offered the province less risk and possessed greater viability. Estimates for the project were “low-balled” (a long-standing claim of the Anonymous Engineer). The Commission exposed myriad instances of official interference with the very consultants whose compromised Reports Nalcor and the Government used to justify Sanction. 

The testimony of Danny Williams, Kathy Dunderdale and Tom Marshall laid bare a trail of forgetfulness as to what they knew and were advised. At no time did they leave doubt that egos had far surpassed comprehension of the project. Nor could evidence be found that they had considered the financial risk to a small, vulnerable province. Their sole reliance on Ed Martin was indisputable. His arrogance manifested as "rude" in front of the Commissioner. It seems that only "rude" was minding the store.

On more than one occasion Judge LeBlanc must have wondered why, after a career on the Bench, he has agreed to assess middle managers from the oil patch and cable TV? Weren't some things just plain obvious!

Then, too, senior public servants were little more than facilitators. The idea that they might have spoken truth to power was never a possibility; all had drunk the Kool-Aid — except for a few middle-level public servants in the Finance Department - who were ignored. 

For legal reasons, the Commission dealt with the issue of Water Management in an "in camera" session. The Energy Access Agreement, which the UARB of Nova Scotia rung out of the local boy scouts was also thought to be largely a Phase II issue.  

Suffice to say, it remains to be seen whether the Commissioner will distinguish between incompetence and perfidy in Nalcor's and the Government's handling of the key decision to sanction. 

In 2019, Muskrat will continue to dominate the news platforms and this Blog, too, as the  Inquiry examines the entrails of contracts, contractors and management practices. The charade of passing the buck will continue; forgetfulness will remain the favourite tool of the complicit. 
Meanwhile, NL’s fiscal nightmare also continues, the very financial stability of the province on national watch including by the Parliamentary Budget Office. The local political leadership persists in downplaying an outcome that threatens to be as unpleasant as it is unavoidable. 

The Ball Administration wants, above everything, a second term… and may get it, as a P.C. Party, unrepentant for its complicity in Muskrat, is content to conspire with Liberal spinelessness and short-termism as the favoured path forward. The NDP can't see beyond niceness and is unable to extend its limited appeal. 

Throughout the year, the Uncle Gnarley Blog benefitted from the insightful analysis of several guest writers, most notably David Vardy and PlanetNL, the latter staking claim to the top two posts of 2018. 
The Deception of Parity: Premier’s Claim Busted dispels Ball’s assertion that a target of 18 cents/kWh is appropriate, having wrongly asserted that it is comparable to the rates expected in the other Atlantic Provinces. That post clocked in over 40,000 pageviews, while the second most popular post, entitled 18 c/kWh —Warning — Not Exactly as Advertised was close behind in the readership count.
Both posts reflect PlanetNL’s considerable analytical skills in power-related matters, including Muskrat, and prove that the issue of electricity cost is very much top of mind for consumers. They also suggest that the public would like truth to characterize their politics — something which was not lost on the voters in the Windsor Lake by-election.

This is an appropriate time to also acknowledge the work of Uncle Gnarley Blog contributors Ron Penney, the Anonymous Engineer, Agent 13 (who claimed #8 in this year's Top Ten Posts), James L. Gordon, P.Eng. (Ret’d), Phil Helwig, P.Eng. and Bards John Tuach and Bob LeMessurier. Others contributed with their research and ideas. 

Now… drumroll please… based solely on the number of pageviews recorded and ascribed to each post by Google… in descending order, here are the Top Ten posts of 2018:  

1. The Deception of Parity: Premier’s Claim Busted, Guest Post byPlanetNL 





3. Secret “Management Reserve” for Muskrat Uncovered 







Happy New Year everyone!


82 comments:

  1. This comment has been removed by the author.

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    1. The central issue around the project that may drive NL into bankruptcy, MF is summarized "Suffice to say, it remains to be seen whether the Commissioner will distinguish between incompetence and perfidy in Nalcor's and the Government's handling of the key decision to sanction".

      This is stunning at this point to still be avoiding the obvious truth, that this project is driven by feudal corruption, nothing more. Does the fact that 2 successive governments, one Liberal one Conservative, have not exposed the contracts, "agents", etc., not give one pause?

      Does the fact that the inquiry can't assign blame not point to a feudal fix being in? Does not perfidy result in the heaps of incompetence on display at MF (see dome, draft tube, faulty wire, etc.)?

      Sorry but the judges rubber chicken covers for incompetence, Here come da judge!

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  2. Wow...too much here in this posting to comphrend in one day. So I will comment on the last posting, Dunderdale drops two bomb shells on inquiry. Two of the top dogs dropped, each dropped a bomb shell that has been largely ignored. KD summed it up nicely at the inquiry. The reason we needed the power was, "big screen TVs" and Eddie summed it up with "there is a lot of bullshit about muskrat", but he neglected to say he was the author of the bullshit. These are two quotes taken from VOCM year in review. Cheers, average Joe.

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    1. I submit that the whole Muskrat Falls Project was Bullshit from the start. Ww were fed a steady diet of Bullshit from the get go. From Williams, Dunderdale and Davis. And who can forget Mr.Martin. And it still continues with Premier Ball.
      His promise that the ratepayers will not have to pay for Musket falls is also a pile of BS.
      Unless by some miracle we can grow money on trees. Or maybe he Hope's the sale of Marijuana will get us out of the hole.
      God help us all. Happy New Year.

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    2. They say there are no stupid queations, just stupid answers. So I have been asking that question for years, did we need the power, and the premier use to glaze over that one, like don't ask stupid questions. So she finally gave the answer at the inquiry, "big screen TVs". You decide if it is a stupid answer, and then you can get an insight into her thinking, or as I have referred to many times as her flawed thinking. But Eddie may also be to blame for that flawed thinking too, or causing her thinking to be flawed. Was that part of the flawed thinking and bullshit that he fed her, and she swallowed it hook line and sinker. Or was he talking about her as being the source of the bullshit that was out there. I think they should have asked her how did she come up with that answer, all on her own or from Eddie or Gil.Yes, as I said he was the author of that BS. No sir, I ain't letting that one go, and think the commissioner should look into that. How big can those screens get ask Joe blow.

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    3. AJ @ 10:55:

      My 70" TV, my phone and my laptop consumes a total of 750W maximum - my 70" TV uses about the same power as a CRT 36" TV circa 2000 (less than 300kWhrs if running for a full month at 24hrs/day). The 'big screen' comment shows either the population was gullible or KD was dumb and didn't understand electronics very well - as WA states, heating is the main source of our power consumption and wastage.

      For mitigation - its not possible, unless an external to NL previously undeveloped source of revenue is developed. Cash to pay for MF comes for the government in some form - if its not on power rates, a combination of increased taxes or reduced services is the only way to pay for MF. Claims by anybody that mitigation are possible are only covering up the way costs are recovered by the NL population. Reducing power consumption wont reduce costs to the population - either way $500/person/year is going to be recovered by the government.

      PENG2

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    4. Yes, those big suckers draw down a lot of power, they said. Almost as much as the single 60 watt incandescent light bulb as I use to have over my front door. But now I have the new led bulb and the front lawn is brighter but colder. I had two of the old box TVs and they use to heat up the house summer and winter, had to keep the doors open in summer time. Yes, and now someone said Eddie warned us of the iPhones, big power suckers too. Where will this all end, but all true. So indeed he was the author of the bullshit that he blamed others for. And how about Gill, he was a cable guy, should he not have know all about TVs. The mystery grows deeper. And they say KD told all of that in the legislature, and the opposition was belwildered by it all, it was too hot for the media to touch, I mean the incandescent light bulb at night, and they kept all the lights on, on the hill at night to bump up the power used. Not even Newfoundland power could figure it out at the time, so they said nothing, not enough info they said, but it turns out now, they new all about the bullshit and big screen TVs etc. As they admitted on the stand. So no one wanted to take any responsibility for muskrat, so they blamed it on new technology, and the big sucker TV screens. So now we have our answer, I was late in getting it, only knew about it in the past week or so. That's why we needed the power. They tried to keep it from us by calling it by another name, bullshit and hogwash, Tv screens and iPhones. So there you have it says Joe blow, mystery solved. 13$ billion well spent, gotta have my big screen and iPhone. Now commissioner put that in your pipe and smoke it.

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  3. That this Dunderdale individual could be such a colossal idiot as to suggest that "big screen TVs" necessitated the MRF fiasco only serves to further demonstrate this indidiual's abject unsuitably for the position of responsibility in which she was fatefully ensconced, as well as just how hopelessly out of her depth she was... like putting a naive little child in charge of city hall.

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  4. The first phase of the General Inquiry is now history, and indue course, the learned judge will account for cause and action, leading to sanction. Should be interesting. The Shadow Inquiry should concentrate now on energy policy shift and actions taken by our government, since sanction. We all seem to be sleep walking towards the 2019 elections without what Tor refers to as "the plan". Back sliding on low carbon, green energy programs and climate action is the order of the day. Tory-mindedness, (trickle down economists), within Liberal/Conservative organizations has crept in across the Nation. Our grandchildren deserve better. Where are the under 40 leaders? Millennials please arise and take back your democracy. Your futures are being devastated by stale, complacent leadership!

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  5. I feel Kathy Dunderdale has been given too harsh a critism here. She was not an engineer, and was working to the information that Nalcor provided her. She should have challenged more, but the case that Nalcor provided was very solid. We needed the power and Muskrat Falls was the least cost option.

    Dunderdale repeated a comment that Ed Martin himself made in 2012. TV's and iphones were contributing to the increase.

    Our major critism should be directed at Ed Martin and Paul Humprhies. Paul Humphries in particular was given a very easy ride at the inquiry. He was the engineer, and the VP responsible for determining the least cost option.

    He should have been challenged about the 50% growth in demand, with no increase in population.

    Dunderdale is not the major issue here. She was misled.

    The most damming part of Dunderdale's testimony is that despite all the evidence know before her, she still supports ed martin.

    She should have through him under the bus.

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    1. I agree that Paul Humphries is a major enabler. CBC piece by Terry Roberts:
      1. 2008 Maebec report determined there was "significant " opportunities to lower demand for electricity.
      2.Energy Consultant Philip Raphals accused Nalcor of "blatantly" disregarding CDM(Conservation Demand management), and not aware of any North American utility company excluding CDM savings when developing a power plan.
      3. GT also raised the issue.
      4 . Humphries said if we had to rely on load reduction , "it could effectively be the end of the world from a utility perspective" ..."at some point the lights would go out"....that such a scenario (an isolated system ) does not exist anywhere else in North America, with the exception of Hawaii" ...." that in 2012, there was not enough data available on the success of the CDM program that would lead me to want to take the chance......that we would be left short"

      And of course there was Stratton the forecaster, an engineer of some sort.
      So this is the engineering BS that has been little challenged at this Inquiry, and needs to be as Plantet Nl says.
      So as AJ says; this TV business , and did we need the power, has not been challenged effectively by this Inquiry. So whether Martin or Dunderdale using talking points, where did it come from. ENGINEERING and Public Relations.
      And the same line and approach of BS is used by Take Charge today, with Nfld Power 90 % of this.
      Winston Adams

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    2. Agree that Dunderdale was misled but the fact is that the NL gov.should never have been involved in MF in the first place .They had neither the expertise nor the experienced people to ovresee such an undertaking.KD repeated DW's anti Quebec rhetoric,the only reason that MF was conceived..As ANDY Wells said,it mattered not what anybody said,the project was a done deal from the day that DW was elected.



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    3. Humphries role cannot be understated. He spouted incredible BS on the stand and it's easy to see why Ed Martin appointed such a supportive dupe.

      BTW, this comparison to Hawaii is total BS. There is at least one another isolated island electrical grid on the North American continent. Alaska, population 700,000. Good comparable, yes? Maybe the larger grids in Yukon and NWT are isolated as well but as those are much smaller populations, they are not so relevant.

      Now is Alaska going sleepless at night worrying the lights will go out because they are not interconnected? Don't think so.

      Maybe Martin and Humphries need to get out to Alaska right away and save them from disaster. If Palin was still Governor, they might have a chance.

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    4. I don't think that any of these enablers were misled. As PENG2 might say, that is a statement of plausible deniability, by the whole lot. A few pat answers: can't remember, I wan't told, etc. a bagful of excused to pass the buck and pin the blame on nobody with certainty, so a group crime but not enough evidence, so everyone gets off the hook.
      It is not that this should never have gone ahead, it is how it was achieved with deception and false information, and possible crime to cover their tracks, that is what the Inquiry needs to expose : the HOW it was done. The WHY is already known.
      Now the question, is Bruno right, does this Judge have a rubber chicken?
      And ow did a domestic heating problem become a TV problem to justify unreasonable demand forecasting? Whose came up with that one, Dumb Dunderdale on her own? I think not. She is not that dumb, but suggested to her like many other misleading statement s, like Kennedy's 18,000 bls of oil per day burned a t Holyrood. A shopping list of misinformation.
      And the Inquiry, 25 learned people of the law, let KD repeat the TV bit, and went unchallenged by one and all. That but one of the things unchallenged, like Humpheries tall tales. In expectation, He must have rehearsed his answers in advance of his testimony, and seemed to have worked for him.
      Now you notice all lawyers have a computer screen in front of them, like a TV for energy consumption. Does 25 screens there add to their building load in winter, and to winter peak load? Any increase at all?
      My HP 2009 screen says 1.5 amps, 120V, so can some crackerjack say what computer screens, at this Inquiry may add, if anything to MF power need? This can help inform the judge with the rubber chicken!
      Winston

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    5. From anon 07:33 post... "I feel Kathy Dunderdale has been given too harsh a critism here. She was not an engineer, and was working to the information that Nalcor provided her. She should have challenged more, but the case that Nalcor provided was very solid. We needed the power and Muskrat Falls was the least cost option."

      Absolute rot. There was practically no oversights by an external agency, and what "oversight" there was was massaged by the culprits at Nalcor.

      I stated it once before... and I'll state it again... it was DUNDERDALE who was in charge when this scheme was concocted.

      It was DUNDEDALE who signed off on sanction.

      It was DUNDERDALE who was derelict in her duty of service to the people of province of which she was premier.

      It was DUNDERDALE who could've insisted on outside, objective oversight, but DIDN'T.

      The buck stops with whomever is at the top calling the shots, and that was DUNDERDALE.

      It is DUNDERDALE who owns the Muskrat Falls fiasco.

      It is DUNDERDALE herself, by her own incompetence and ignorance, who has earned her ignominious place of infamy in the history of NL.

      Those future generations of NLers forced to decide whether to keep their families warm or fed should never forget that it was DUNDERDALE who was solely responsible for putting them in that dire predicament.

      To gaol with those who would deceive the people into penury.

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    6. Hear, hear, right on....the buck has to stop at the top...wether you are responsible or not...your position demands it. So buck up and own it.

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    7. Yes CD called the shots as a dupe for the former premier. The die was cast prior to sanction, was it not?

      There is no doubt Winston that da judge has a rubber chicken,, here comes da judge.

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    8. Paul Humphries was a key person for Ed Martin to pull this off, make no mistake.

      Humphries was VERY WELL REWARDED by being promoted to VP which gave him a 2ND PENSION. The elusive Executive Pension Plan that is free to him and rides On TOP of his public service pension plan.

      VERY VERY WELL REWARDED

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  6. . Synapse Energy Economics rate mitigation report --- http://www.pub.nf.ca/2018ratemitigation/report/Synapse%20Energy%20Economics%20-%20Phase%20One%20Report%20-%202018-12-31.pdf

    . Libery Consulting rate mitigation report http://www.pub.nf.ca/2018ratemitigation/report/The%20Liberty%20Consulting%20Group%20-%20Phase%20One%20Report%20-%202018-12-31.pdf

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    1. Send the bill for this consultant's Work to whom?

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    2. Danny Williams

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    3. Synapse study (a link also from Vision 2041 blog) is a very important study, and for Robert too likely. It deals with the Missing Link at the Inquiry: CDM

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    4. OK, had these two Reports been produced prior to sanction, would our government gone ahead with Muskrat anyway?

      What happens now? When and how will the current gov. proceed?

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    5. No. Present government will be elected again.

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  7. Ball called Inquiry and controls requests to PUB and other activities prior to upcoming prov. Election. Ches cannot counter that. Would take at least a year for new alternative party to be bonafide. Only alternate for critics on this blog to take serious action is to run as independents and collude. Any takers? Also note that a number of regular commenters on this blog are from out of province and thereby ineligible to run provincially. Focus energy and pressure on Ball and do not let him sell off our provincial assets.

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  8. My God, by’s. Put pressure on Ball to produce updated status report on Muskrat Falls project. Surely, waiting for an election or Inquiry report in no way cuts it. Shame on anyone who hides behind the cloak of “matters before the court” re water rights. That has its own libel. Governments are accountable to the citizens!

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    1. You are insightful. An updated report on MF is overdue. It has been years since the costs were updated. Yes the water rights issue needs clarity NOW! In camera meetings and weak excuses do not cut it!

      The next election offers no choices as we have already seen, pick Tweedle Dee or Tweedle Dum.

      Demand an update NOW!

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  9. Phase 2 of Inquiry will likely show: 1. The integrated project team was not a good alliance and motivator to manage the project. 2. Enough experienced people were not attracted to the construction site and conditions. 3. LCP management team relied too heavily on very large scope contracts with emphasis on putting liability and risk too much on contractors to the point of default. 4. The integrated management team were top heavy adding to cost and schedule. 5. Site weather and location and living conditions for essentially an outdoor project were never factored up properly by anyone. 6. The Project was still in critical engineering design stage for several aspects after “sanction”. 7. Any fool would know on a database check that the stretch schedule was hopelessly not achievable. 8. Sanction date ran adverse to the critical path schedule re site access and bulk excavation. 9. The project release was clouded in poor communication that ran counter to calm waters, so to speak; that added to attitude and inefficiency.

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    1. It is designed to NOT point fingers or assign blame. What hope do you have for phase 2?

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    2. This person (Anon @ 02:20) stays up very late !!1

      But seems to know what he/she speaks !

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  10. I read the two reports. Rates could by lowered by external power sales where the profits go to rate reduction rather. However, with variable river flows and low prices, the rate offset might be negligible.
    Rates could be lowered by reorganizing Nalcor. We cannot predict oil prices.

    Elasticity has no precedent in our case. It isn't often that electric rates double so nobody knows what the resulting demand drop will be. Extreme increases in power rates will result in extreme actions. I expect there will be a lot of wood stoves in use if they double rates.
    There was a comment that heat pumps are turning up everywhere, so no point in rebates. The want CDM to manage peaks, but CDM will also likely reduce overall energy demand too, especially when heating systems get upgraded with heat pumps.

    As for replacing oil fired systems with electric resistance, that is something that only government would inflict on itself. The benefit from moving the oil budget to feed into NLPower / Nalcor is going to be offset by expensive electrical upgrades (service entrance, switch gear, transformer, likely 600 volt 3 phase, distribution wiring, asbestos mitigation etc.) in every building.

    Spare parts were not mentioned, so we might get routinely hit with large repair bills. Will there be a bill for refurnishing Holyrood station as a thermal backup needed when we wait for a spare semiconductor components for the electronic converter station, or ice takes down many kms of power line or the underwater link fails and takes months to repair like it did in Tasmania?

    The bottom line in the report is this: "by 2030, the Base Case price is $225 per MWh and the High Case price is $309 per MWh"

    30 cent power will cause a revolt. Government will probably up it to 17 cents and pay for the rest of the $500+ million a year by other means. Given that we are already running a large deficit of at least $500 million, we are looking at needing an extra billion a year to keep from further going into debt.

    I suspect there will be re-negotiations regarding all provincial debt, replacing higher interest loans with lower cost money -- but this only buys a little time if we run a perpetual deficit. Eventually it has to break.

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  11. As Robert and WA says, UG croud should have priority for the future,as the Inquiry churns on, can't change the past.
    This new Synapse Report is a big deal. How many of you have read this? It deals with issues much debated, especially by technical people here over past months, including PENG2, Heracles, Ex Military, MA, and I include AJ(more than most as to issues covers in that report) and of course PlanetNL.
    Who on UG has read this complete? This is serious Mitigation stuff, from what I would suggest is world class company, but of course real world class don't seem to use that self promotion words, and I didn't see them use it. The proof is in the pudding.
    I would suggest this speaks well of the PUB, and what they could have done if not hindered presanction. Did our Consumer Advocate have input into selecting this consultant? And who heads up the PUB now, I haven't checked.
    PF

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    1. I would encourage members of the Concerned Citizens Coalition to shift focus to electing bright people with progressive ideas wanting to drastically change how you, (we), are governed. Have any of you had opportunity to see what Senator Elizabeth Warren is basing her own life experiences and reasoning for wanting the top job? She is setting out goals to shake the rich establishment, who control the banking and government of the majority, for the benefit of the 1%. This is the same fight we 90% or so have to win in the next elections. It is not about Party, it's about finding good representatives to work for common good. Muskrat is but a symbol of bad governance , and needs to be put out of office. Let's break the continuance of such unacceptable practice and behaviour.

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    2. I wrote a comment last evening PF but could not post it, as often happens...my old tech, I guess, so will try again, now that the sun is shining. I skimmed through both reports yesterday. No, not an expert in either area so will leave it to the experts, like Mr. Vardy and PlanetNL and maybe others for the Liberty report. As for the Synapse you have made great suggestions. Will just comment generally on the Synapse report, seems much to do about nothing. Can't maKe much from a sows ear, it is what it is. They suggest CDM, heat pumps and sell surplus power, all good stuff, but for now they show no leadership, just wait and see how many will switch to heat pumps. If they were suggesting a program to get people to switch, at least that would give them a better idea of how many will switch. They also hope more will give up oil and become totally electrified, a fat chance of that, without incentives, and rates about to go up. They suggest varing rates...may help...but not much about to do about the fact we use 2.5 times the power in winter as we do in summer. They want to sell more power, but suggest NS is the only real buyer..right now. So, they had better come up with a more concrete plan in phase II of their report. Cheers, average Joe.

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    3. Joe, we should now be paying more attention to what the senior civil servants are advising their Ministers to do about the whole Energy Plan for the province. Let's assume that these Deputies are the best home brew we have, that they can swallow up the General Inquiry volumes, and make minced meat of the Synapse, Climate Action and heat pump technology. What they now are putting before the soon to be re-elected aristocracy is what matters for the long term and life sustainability of your grandchildren , and mine.

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  12. Can someone clarify/explain what Synapse Energy means when it says:--

    "IIS plus Labrador electricity sales are forecast to remain fairly flat in the future, with a modest decrease of 0.3% per year from 2018 through 2030.

    Future electricity sales and peak demand are likely to be affected by the retail price increases caused by MFP, as customers reduce consumption patterns in response to higher prices.

    Retail sales in 2030 could be as much as 4 to 11 percent lower than they would be without MFP, depending upon how much the project increases retail prices." ???

    How does the further 4 to 11% reduction relate to the actual yearly forecast decrease of 0.3% forecast with MFP operating?

    E.g., do the potential 11% additional decrease for year 2030 mean that the actual number of GWhs for that year could be 11% less than what is now forecast for that year? Yet Synapse relates the 11% decrease to what WOULD HAVE BEEN forecast without MFP. We don't know what the 2030 forecast would be without Muskrat, do we?

    Confusing to me.


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    1. I agree they could have been clearer. I think their baseline scenario tried to adhere closely to the latest NLH supplied info although they modified it a little. Then the extra reduction reflects CDM and elasticity presumed to be inadequately incorporated in the baseline NLH forecast.

      It's rather all over the place and hard to pin down what they really mean. I'll probably reread it on the weekend and hope to grasp it better then.

      The Liberty report was a bit more focused although they seemed to fail to calculate some numbers in obvious places.

      We are a long way from understanding the story yet. Government probably needs to take a position and better define their preferences. As an engineering consultant, I'd need to ask my client for a lot more input to give them a meaningful analysis. Maybe this is what they understand phase 2 to be.

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    2. If Maurice Adams finds the Synapse report confusing,good luck with the average citizen understanding it.There are a lot of assumptions and we know where assumptions got us in the past.The Liberty report
      Is much easier to understand with more practicality as to finding savings in the bloated system of Nalcor/NLH.Although cuts are needed and changes made to the structure of these two entities,I feel the savings will be insignificant in the overall picture.
      .

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    3. Maybe the genius Ball will smilingly interpret it all on TV or VOCM. Hey Stan, You are long overdue with the estimate to complete, and where are the ice levels and flood risk updates?

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  13. Thanks.

    Your comments are much appreciated, and I agree that the Synapse report relies heavily --- too heavily, on 'assumptions'. Not unlike the numerous and erroneous/misleading assumptions that got us into this mess in the first place.

    And not unlike the Public Inquiry, the TOR for the PUB rate mitigation review is inadequately and too narrowly focused (but what's new)!

    Our problems are much bigger and much broader than a mere 'rate mitigation' consultant study can or will address.

    Both the Inquiry and the PUB Reference are addressing only component parts of the much bigger issue that only government can properly identify, focus on, flesh out, assign adequate (likely combined public and private sector) resources to, generally direct, oversee and put in place and ensure a multi-year implementation plan that will get us, step by step through this mess.

    These digestible chunks are only small parts of the solution ---- and they will not be part of the solution if they are more quickly integrated into a broader, province wide strategy.


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    1. Should read ---- "if NOT more quickly... etc."

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    2. As to Synapse, thanks Maurice for bringing this to my (our) attention.
      My partial quick look, I was impressed, they are on the right tract. My partial in depth look leans to cautious optimisum. Yes they make assumption, which appear off base in some case, but partly qualify by saying phase 2 will be in more detail. I acknowledge that some assumption must be made, and the test is whether the assumption are reasonable.
      As to tailoring reports to client's or governments desires( more contract work results from that ) whether this at play ?
      AJ too is correct, generally.
      There is some (a lot of good ) in this, and I will make further comment later.
      Seems the aim is whether it is possible to make a sill scarf from a pig's ear with MFs. Can it be manageable debt instead of boondoggle and provincial bankruptcy? As Robert says, can these reports lead to good government policy?
      Bruno would say no, as the system is corrupt. He may be right.
      PF

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    3. Oh no! I fear that Synapse out to mislead as Nalcor did.
      While some important info and intent, maybe?
      As to CDM and heat Pumps ...
      Is there something fishy in Denmark?
      CDM and HPs are considered separately, so two components of CDM
      We know it conserves energy, about 250% efficient they say they assume.
      Does it help reduce demand on the winter grid peak?
      Page 48 top right chart; shows high case with Hps potential only about 25-30 % of the total. Really? Is that a reasonable assumption, maybe suggested by Mr Stratton, or Stan Marshall?
      And bottom of page, only 14 % total up to year 2030? Really? For the high limit.
      And as to peak demand reduction the grid......... where is the chart for that? Oh yes ....ICF, did someone say, WA maybe, that all these cold climate heap pumps, according to ICF and Nfld Power, fail and shut off in winter for the island? Is Synapse selling that line of BS too? Or will correct this for phase 2?
      If anyone can find the demand reduction chart or graph I'm looking for , please let me know. Maybe Planet NL can comment?
      PF

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    4. Like you, it seems difficult to give Synapse the benefit of the doubt that their phase 2 study will be impartial and accurate. There are too many questionable findings and omissions in the phase 1 report to feel confident in their approach.

      I commented in response to WA a week or two ago that peak demand worries about heat pumps is a fiction. The diversity effect of many thousands of units means we can simply assess the average power draw of each and scale accordingly. Peak cycle impacts of individual units is immaterial. The bottom line is that good heat pumps are considerably more efficient than baseboard. Let's go along with Synapse and use the 2.5 COP value although my personal experience is better.

      The next demand factor to be concerned about is whether units quit in cold temperatures or if residents of the household simultaneously crank up their baseboard loads despite running their heat pump. This is where the utilities assume the worst of people. My own experience is that my 2 munisplits with combined capacity of 3 tons has continued to keep my 3BR house very adequately heated through recent bad weather without needing to add any baseboard heat.

      Average daytime draw at my place barely is around 2kW. In fact, 1 watt per square foot of total house area is an excellent indication of power draw during the recent harsh weather. I'm confident baseboard demand would be at least 2.5 times higher.

      Synapse either doesn't hve the experience or reliable data or they would appear to be afraid to put these numbers together.

      The PUB should order the local utilities or independently seek out to set up test monitoring at numerous houses with full and partial heat pump installs to collect hard data. As time is short, they could alternatively request heat pump consumers to come forward with their experience and present their before and after power bills and such. Among them might be a handful of gearheads like me and WA who also have power monitors installed and can discuss performance in a far more detailed way than more casual observers would.

      Delete
    5. My four head Daikin multi-split has never cut out in cold weather in St. Johns and has been operating for three years. It can heat the whole house and runs off a single 20A circuit. The heads turn on and off randomly so it seldom runs at peak output with all four heads on simultaneously.

      On cold days, the idea that all heat pumps would cut out and revert to baseboard is silly, unless it was something highly unusual, like -30C and windy.

      My worst February total bill was 5385 kWh with baseboard in 2014. After the heat pump, that dropped 38% to about 3300kWh.

      Even it they did cut out, I'd be more inclined to use the propane fireplace for heat. On many streets in new sub-divisions there are propane tanks at every second house.

      Delete
    6. Hopefully you'll be able to recoup the money local heat pump cartels gouged out of you before your contraption gives out.

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    7. Contraption...??????

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    8. To follow up my post above at 09:06:

      My winter peak months used to use 3000-3400kwh total billing but are now half that.

      Metering the 15A minisplit circuit, I see that dec 2018 was my highest at just over 900kwh. Prior to that, Jan 2018 used just over 800 kwh. This indicates average COP of 3 or close to it. Some days 2.5 might be the true number.

      I'm confident my household has about 5kw less power demand than it did with baseboard. If 100,000 similar households did the same, there would be 500MW less draw on the utility on a peak winter day. No need for Holyrood or Muskrat in that case.

      Delete
    9. Re contraption / cartel:

      A heat pump is almost identical in mechanical function to a central air conditioner. In most Canadian major cities and throughout the USA, central air conditioners are everywhere. They last decades, require little or no annual service and nobody considers them contraptions. Furthermore, they are a cooling luxury with no pay back at all since you could get by with ceiling fans in every room. For Newfoundlanders with no cheap natural gas to use for heating and cooking, a heat pump is not only a summer cooling luxury, it can seriously cut the heating bill and will pay for itself if used for heating.

      There is no Cartel. There are many installers that are quoting outrageous install prices and customers are paying. I have heard quotes of $100/lb for the 410a refrigerant. There are also established companies in town that charge $25/pound for the same refrigerant, have lower hourly rates than your car mechanic, and are willing to let the customer take care of the preparation in advance to keep install costs down. For example, a handy person might have the 220 volt power disconnect installed, set up the outdoor stand, drill holes though the wall for the heads and mount them. This stuff could be done by any handyman. You then pay the refrigeration mechanics for the real refrigeration work -- perhaps two hours to connect the fittings on the copper lines, perhaps cut off any excess and flare the ends, vacuum air out of the lines, check for leaks, and commission the system.

      The same goes for installing a gas fireplace. You can drill holes in joists, run gas lines, frame out the fireplace -- either yourself or via your trusted handymen. The fireplace installer will just set up the chimney (and take the liability for that) and Irving Oil will visually inspect the lines, crimp on their quality fittings, leak test and start up the system. At 180/hr is is crazy to have certified gas workers doing carpentry.

      I would like to see all new homes have heat pumps and some electric baseboards as backup. This could be achieved indirectly by specifying energy standards that could be met by installing heat pumps or advanced construction methods. I'd rather not force specific solutions but rather the end goal. Goal = affordable to heat. If builders want instead to use techniques like solar passive and end up with something that needs so little heat that a few small baseboards are adequate, then no heat pump is needed.

      Delete
    10. Anon; @9:13... No need for Holyrood and muskrat.... That is the last thing that govt. and nalcor wants to hear. How do we get that point across to them before the next election???

      Delete
    11. Anon @9:13, your house is larger than the Nfld average and a bigger heat load, as you say you reduce by 5 kw.
      In 2012 I used official data: 151,000 single detached houses with electric heat load average just 5.2 kw. I allowed for 55% heat reduction, so 2.86 kw each house. This gives 432 MW reduction on the grid (Holyrood now using 350 MW average in winter months). This does not include reduction possible for commercial and institutional or hot water savings, insulation etc
      These calculations were published by the Telegram in 2012 prior to sanction, and can be found at Vision 2041 blog.
      Yet ICF and now too Synapse show no grid peak reduction!!! All will shut down sure! It is in a footnote in ICF. Who, of Nfld Power or Nfld Hydro directed that assumption be there? Much like saying all generation stations will fail at the same time every year when temperatures drop below -8C.
      Such is the application of ASSUMPTIONS to get a desired result.
      Reasonable assumptions are not being applied.
      Winston

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  14. Spent today reading 209 pages of MWH America’s interim report as “independent Engineer” dated Nov 29, 2013. Yup; still married. MWH was engaged as independent engineer re federal loan guarantee. Would expect to hear from them in CIMFP, phase 2. Digesting a story of more than a decade is like eating eating an elephant; a bite at a time! Here are some clippings from it:
    * Site visit near end of September had only 300 beds in camp but 1000 were promised by end of year.
    * Ice cover expected at site (river) from November to May. Tail water height increase of 2 meters deceases plant out by 5% during this period.
    * Then, report gets into reference to Water Management Agreement and, then to my chagrin, the average annual energy analyses table was the first of many to be off limits for public consumption. This crap continues.
    * From NLHydro transmission planning manual, load shedding will not occur for a temporary loss of a pole or bipolar of HVdc Link. But, manual goes on to say under frequency load shedding should be minimized. Note the word temporary in previous sentence.
    * IE challenged small size of performance security re powerhouse contract. It was increased some thereafter.
    * IE suggested 5 to 7 years to commission all units and project after start. MF schedule was just over 5 years. Obviously, 7 years was more on the mark.
    * IE warned that multiple major concurrent critical paths are risky given mega project status and remote nature of the site.
    * Interest during construction was taken as $1.002b on capital estimate of $6.2b
    * IE noted Nalcor’s acceptance of powerhouse contractor proposal to use all weather enclosure to address concern that placement and curing of 460,000 CM of powerhouse reinforced concrete over several winters would be a significant challenge.
    * Annual operating and maintenance costs were given little address in project budgets.
    * Yet, in conclusion, IE found the project satisfactory at that point with caution expressed on schedule; and budgets okay to extent of a limited number of contracts awarded to that point. So ended 2013.

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    1. It is surprising that the IE was so gutless. I seem to remember comments in this blog with back-of-napkin calculations showing what other dams of similar size cost. It should have been obvious from the beginning that something was very wrong with the early estimates or that Nalcor had magical powers. Were there really redacted portions of the IE report?

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  15. Has the reservoir been completely filled yet? I am hoping that if the North Spur is to fail, it fails the first time it is filled to capacity when everyone is vigilant. Worst case is that the North Spur holds for a few years, people become complacent and then die. It is only a matter of time before something triggers liquefaction -- a small earth tremor, unusually heavy rains or just random, bad luck.

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  16. Just did a quick read of most of the Liberty report.

    Liberty states in part that "Potential revenue requirement mitigation through capturing dividends and returns and MFP financing changes have a value measured in hundreds of millions of dollars annually".

    That essentially confirms what we naysayers have been saying for many, many years ---- that Muskrat was and is a hidden 'tax grab'.

    'Hundreds of millions' means more than 200 million a year more than the real cost.

    Hundreds of millions a year accounts for almost half of the extra revenue that Nalcor's PPA requires be taken yearly out of the pockets of ratepayers to cover Nalcor's MF cost recovery.

    So there does appear to be room to ease the burden on ratepayers ------ if governments (province and federal) do the right thing and lift the travesty that is Muskrat from the shoulders of those who can least afford it.

    There is much work to be done.

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  17. Why are our regular engineers here silent on these reports?

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    1. Yes, until someone can analyze the Synapse Report and convince me otherwise, it is just a regurgitation of Nalcor's wishful thinking, lies, half truths that got us in this mess in the first place. They talked too much to the nalcor people and wrote what they told them, a lot of words but not saying anything concrete, just spin, and try and justify the BS that they have been spinning for years. If they are going to do a proper report it is best they stay away from nalcor and do their own research and come up with their own numbers, results and conclusions. Just tell it like it is, think that's all we are asking. As for Balls mitigation, well maybe he should get a new word, looked it up and don't like what the word really means. Not really a fix or a permanent solution, just a short term fix to get us through the next election. But then again that's what most politicians that want to get elected do, just migitate to the next election says Joe blow.

      Delete
    2. Maybe they are just posting anonymously. I am an electrical engineer and have read the reports and was left with a lot of questions. For example, if we don't control the water flows, what is the minimum guaranteed output from MF? What is the real export value for this minimum output minus what we have to give to Nova Scotia? What is the current projected final cost of construction now that Astaldi is gone? What will it cost to refurbish holyrood? How reliable is the DC/AC converter station and do we need to have a supply of spare components? If so, how much will this cost?

      With so many unknowns, there is no way to know the real cost. However, I think the estimates of $500 million a year are a good starting point since any mitigation efforts are likely to be cancelled out by unanticipated expenses and problems.

      When you add this $500 million to our current annual deficits of $500 million or so and write down the value of MF to realistic levels (perhaps a few billion), then we have a problem that absolutely cannot be solved by taxation. There will be some form of intervention and the federal government will be involved.

      Delete
    3. The upper CF plant flows plus inflows below upper CF is and was always a known, known. There is and was no risk associated with those flows. Water through the bridge you might say. God or Mother controls the flows and neither HQ nor Nalcor has influence there?

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    4. The minimum guaranteed flow from UC is about 17% of what MF needs. As such, the maximum amount of MF power that can be sold in a PPA is about 125 MW. The water flows from UC, that is right, but takes time before reaching MF. As such, when HQ releases water at peak time, it makes it to MF only once back to low consumption time.

      Without an explicit sync between the two, UC will keeps doing its business as usual while MF will be in trouble. Either they rise and lower the reservoir to answer the need for power all the time, but doing so will compromise the North Spur. To keep the reservoir steady and use water whenever available as required by the North Spur makes MF a run-of-the-river hydro plant with peak capacity out-of-sync with peaks for demands.

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    5. Will MF have a peak demand and when ??? Time of day, time of year ???

      Delete
    6. MFs @ 824 max cap could likely deliver 92 % of that to the Avalon , so 758 MW , allowing 8% loss due to transmission losses. During cold snaps with peak about 1750 MW, the Avalon is probably using about 1100, I estimate roughly. So 12.7 Billion project, if even producing max design, ,cannot feed the Avalon, like was needed 2 night ago at -16.2 C here, or even milder . So the balance must come from island hydro. If the DC line goes down or also if little power from there, and no Holyrood , we are into rotating outages, that is third world methods, and this is "by design". Hence the scrabble now by Liberty and Synapse to try and save us from Ed Martins disaster scheme, truly Muskrat Madness in many ways. Ideally MFs would have a very high flow to the Avalon all winter, and our good reliable island hydro then goes to NS at the same time. Flow to NS is likely much more reliable than flow from Labrador, as to risk of interruption. But if the DC line down we will terminate flow to NS, but this can take hours to to, and still the Avalon significant shortfall and rotating outages. That's the devil's bargain Ed signed off on. A traitor, I suggest, to our energy security, which is what we are faced with. The rates , whether 17 cents or 22 or 30 cents is only part, the insecurity of power is a worse issue little yet realized, except by a few, including Peter Alteen who has known this pre sanction, but stayed under the cone of silence, with Maxwell Smart and 99.
      It is well known that a crisis often presents opportunities. Now Nfld Power wants all in on opportunities.

      Winston

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    7. Can we even terminate the flow to NS if they too are in peak demand? Does the contract with Emera allow this?

      Delete
    8. Ask Eddie, I think his plan is when we need more power, LIL down, or for whatever reason, we import power from NS. Reason for connecting to the mainland grid, he said. Now go figure that one. Guess Eddie and Cathie and Gillies, already did. What tangled webs we weave when we weave to deceive ourselves. The best laid plans of little mice and and even littler men and weomen, and lie on the stand through their teeth, runs off like water on a ducks back, and the bunch of lawyers write it all down so they can get paid for all the BS. So, has anyone ever considered worst case scenario. Maybe the Nfld power wants to take that one on, or did he just have a brain wave after 10 years of brain cells lying dormant. Think my plan is still best. Go back to where we were ten years ago, develop wind and small hydro as needed, and bring in Winston' s aggressive DMS, shut down Holyrood, and replace with a couple of gas turbines. Hand over muskrat, including the 13$ billion, and all to NS and the Feds, and charge them for transmission line fees for 1100 Kms over our lands. Give it back to Harper and Mackay as their only purpose from the beginning was to shaft us, especially Harper. Cheers, Joe blow.

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    9. Joe, in terms of up and running time to reduce fuel burning at Holyrood, you have it in the right order :wind , small hydro and aggressive CDM. In terms of size of benefit and lowest cost, the order is reversed, I suggest. Ideally all 3 progress at the same time for progressive elimination of fuel burning. You sure you have not studied engineering formally? For an AJ, I think many engineers, and technical people would agree with your approach.
      Biggest problem is legal escape from all those contracts that Eddie sighed for us. Is there an escape hatch? If not then a feeble compromise is the plan, with modest or a little CDM and try to use up surplus MFs power, (if any ever produces), if not then they will regret not doing as you say immediately.

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  18. "These 2 reports, which cost who knows how much, says exactly what Ed Martin said 10 years ago , and again just recently on the stand, as to revenues for rate mitigation.....so this a waste of money. I have to laugh at the CDM bull, LOL give me a break, ...and electric cars.... I mean this stuff is laughable at best. Do they think half of Nfld Power customers are going to buy wood stoves and heat pumps because their bill goes up even by 10 cents per kwh"?
    So there you have it, a quote from the world class commentator and BSer, John Smith on the CBC NL piece "Aggressive policies" dealing with these reports.
    Smith is still a regular on CBC, but not here . Why? UG readers not so easily misled by his BS.
    I hope PlanetNL posts on these reports on Monday? These is good and not so good in these reports, as AJ says, too much input from Nalcor, and too other power companies and ICF, some necessary, but insufficient independent research, and seems swayed by those paying the consultants bills.
    The Shadow Inquiry by UG must stay vigilant and expose the shortcomings.
    Suggest one read the CBC piece, has much on aggressive CDM , whereas Ashley on the Telegram barely mentions CDM ! Aggressive or modest CDM , to be or not to be, this is the question.
    I suggest that the COMMON SENSE of regular ratepayers is way ahead of the curve compared to our power companies and even these consultants. And the fear is customers moving faster and more than expected, beyond their expectations.
    Cold climate minisplits heatpumps (CCMSHP) is DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGY as to Nfld, having an ideal climate for this, and efficiencies about 300%. And our power companies looked the other way. Synapse is sending a warning shot, but phase 2 may spell it out more, if they are really independent.
    I have been silent on performance for more than 6 months. With minus 16.2 C at 4;30 am Jan 4, I checked my monitor , the first time in over 6 months.
    For 1000 St ft cottage heated at 22C constantly; and unoccupied it shows the heat load : highest one hour about 2:30 am at 1350 watts; average HP load from midnight to 8am, 1120 watts; defrost cycles to 10 am , five; defrost cycles from 10am to midnight zero. RH nite about about 86, day about 80, attic RH about 15 point lower, so few defrosts. Other GEARHEADS would value this, as should Synapse.
    Total heat for 2018, 3080kwh, so if 10 cent rates $308.00 for a full year, tax not included. This is what John Smith finds so funny!
    Winston Adams

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    1. Yes, electric cars, big screen tv's and iPhones....justifies muskrat... The buggers....

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    2. Now would be a good time to do refresher courses on basic thermodynamics. MUN could set aside some of the basket weaving courses, (MBA, Poly, etc.). And the Provincial Deputies could bring some real benefits in Energy Policy upgrading. The proximity of large bodies of water to solar rays, (Renewable), would do wonders in building a less fossil fuel dependent lifestyle. Get it on!

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  19. The Six Million Dollar Man was as much a spectacular success at duping the Burin Rube as he was a colossal failure at building hydro-electric dams. Well, the jig is up...

    https://www.thetelegram.com/opinion/letter-to-the-editor/letter-the-truth-about-billions-in-benefits-from-muskrat-falls-273104/

    On a related note, considering the demonstrably abject flop that is Nalcor's load forecast, and the recent mitigation study suggesting lay-offs at Nalcor as one possible recourse... the very first ones sacked at that hapless corporation should be every single individual involved in contriving that disastrous load forecast, as well as whomever signed off on it.

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    1. I suppose, being an ex hydro engineer, my very critical comments on UG following the testimony of the Trio, especially Stratton, and the forecasting methods, reflected the easy ride they got , and Leblanc saying they did a fine job of explaining a complex issue. These words should haunt Leblanc, when the degree of incompetence of forecasting is fully evaluated, and too the Planning supply options to accommodate that false forecast.
      While Synapse explores CDM and forecasting, the issue of Isolated least cost : with CDM , Wind and small hydro best practice is not addressed in these studies, but essential to see that the issue is not 500 million risk issue, nor the 6 billion overrun, but the 11 billion overrun from what should be least cost. What study will quantify that ? This is really world class incompetence , and maybe world class cover up by this Inquiry if not digging deep.
      WA

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  20. Couple of points: Synapse suggests 5 % job cuts for Nalcor , so this about 85 people ( more than that should be fired for incompetence likely. Yetnothing by Synapse on job creation. I recall NB CDM study a few years ago included 750 new jobs from a modest CDM program. These would be tradesmen jobs, and island wide!
    Also Synapse says heat and light are the major opportunities. Heat yes, but not lights ( this a DUMB DUNDERDALE approach , like TVs. Hot water is after heat, about 15 % of residential, lights about 4-5 %, and this most all lost from interactive effect (except for 1 or2 lights outside and street lights.) Street lights is a utility and municipal savings , little or no impact on the residential power bill, so the power companies would promote that rather than more savings for residential. Hot water is also applicable for HP technology with reduction for hot water energy about 50 % and very high demand reduction. Hot water is immune from interactive effect when the HP is outdoors, not in the basement. Neither ICF nor Synapse have considered this. HPs around for 30 years, these for Hot water, as stand alone for 10 years, and the better ones use cold climate HP technology and stainless steel tanks. Also cold climate models for HPs that are all hot water, for both heat and hot domestic water. These are being installed in Nfld. How can you be a expert consultant and ignore technology around for 10 years or more? Smarten up Synapse.
    Winston Adams

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  21. A chuckle would be good. This UG piece has not one who see anything funny, but sometimes a comment may be funny. So I try this:
    As to these reports Nfld power 's Peter Alteen says they would be interested in acquiring Nfld Power retail sector, so this about 10 % more than their current 90 %, for 100%. Peter says they would do that "if good for the customers". Nothing about shareholders? Would they do anything for customers that was not good for shareholders? Is not shareholder primary and customer benefit little? Actaully NL second worse in Canada for customer CDM for a decade, that shows their concern.
    Peter , under the Maxwall Smart cone of silence on MFs for 6 years, and now wants full input for rate mitigation! Cracks me up almost. Actually they want not just retail customers, but island high voltage grid transmission too, and the DC line too: and unfortunately that may have to happen to unload Nalcor debt, sell for 25 cents to the dollar to Fortis or Nfld Power, all in the grand scheme, of Liberal backroom boys. 1995 policy in their cross hairs.
    If this funny (Peter's concern for customers over shareholders) tick UG's funny square.
    Winston

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    1. No, Winston, that is not funny. Das a funny queer thing they are doing there. That is called deceit and deception, disingenuous and dishonest, fraud and lying. Funny is when you and your cat or dog rolls around on the floor with uncontrollable laughter, wakes up the neighbourhood and they join in too, or striking your funny bone elbow. Now das funny said Joe blow.

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    2. You are so right Joe, I said "cracks me up almost", but I actually didn't laugh at all. Sort of want to bang my head in disbelief sort of reaction. Off the cuff, one might say "That's a funny thing, now they want all in and before wouldn't touch the subject. Funny as makes no sense on the surface, hard to understand.
      So we agree, not funny at all, and you describe it well.
      Winston

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  22. Regarding the mitigation studies, how can "electrification" be reconciled with Conservation/Demand Management (CDM)?

    One approach involves selling more electricity to raise revenue to cover the cost of MRF fiasco... meanwhile, the other approach involves ratepayers reducing the skyrocketing cost of electricity by lower and more efficient consumption.

    These two approaches would appear ro be diametrically opposed, indeed, mutually exclusive of one another.

    I've not yet heard anyone point out that glaringly obvious fact... what gives?

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    Replies
    1. What you say appears to make sense. However, two points (as Ed Martin would say, seems he always had 2 points to counter with when on the stand)
      1. with lack of reliability of MFs power, which is only recently being acknowledged, now also by Peter Alteen of Nfld Power, thought they knew it all along), to keep increasing our winter peak via more baseboard heat is suicidal in a sense as for very high risk of substantial rotating outages, so decreasing our winter peak load is best practice, always has been, and should have been started a decade ago or further back. Could have dropped 2 cents off our rates long ago of that was done, to eliminate Holyrood for firm power and fuel savings.
      2. Electrifiction is like Roosevelt's with the New Deal in the 30s to electrify rural America, and here in the 1960s with Bay De Espoir, both of these were prudent choices. But why electrify now when it seems we are electrified?
      We need to convert oil heat houses and business to electricity, if we want to use up some of MF power. Also electric cars...Yes Virginia , electric cars are real, and much of the world going for that, and can be charged at off peak times, and special low rates , say maybe 5 cents per kwh . Low rates for that will gradually increase as more of MFs gets used up. Also too electrify ships at port docking , like when you take a trailer to a park and plug in instead of using propane. That too can be done at off peak times. And too all good for the environment to counter climate change. So to balance CDM, and decrease power use at key times , at peak, and increase it at non peak times , is a worthy and necessary goal. So timing is key to allow for both. But seems on the surface to contradict each other. But not so. Like the little child's story of wanting something hot and cold at the same time, it being ice cream with hot sauce on it.
      But Aggressive CDM may be bridge too far, to reduce revenue too much, is what they fear. So we need the Goldilocks, just right amount.
      Our winter peak is 2.5 to 3 times more than summer time. Some jurisdictions these are the same. We foolishly spent 12.7 billion rather then shave off our winter peak and add a little local new generation. To keep adding to winter peak means planning for Gull Island, or more unnecessary generation capacity. And that is the purpose of independent Efficiency Corporations like in Vermont, NS and many places, except NL, because here, we are unique, assuming TVs and not baseboard heat is our problem. And who opposed that dumb statement? Is there even one of the world class experts cited by KD that has even now said that is wrong? Well maybe PENG2, but he is anonymous, and was late to do so, and a civil guy, you would think electrical and mechanical guys would be shouting that down. Oh my. All so silent, even Fred Wilcox and Heracles and Ex.
      Winston

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    2. Yeah right, come off it... as if NL families are going to be able to shell out $50K for electric cars when they'll be hard-pressed just to pay their monthly electric bills. And electric cars aren't suited to NL's cold climate anyway, because the energy required to heat the passenger compartment will use up nearly all the juice in the batteries, limiting the car's range to the extent as to be impractical. And this notion to "electrify ships at port docking"... well that just sounds daft. Regarding greenhouse gas reduction, the amount of GHG reduction in NL would be so minuscule as to be unmeasurable compared to emitters like the US, China and India. So that's absolutely no justification at all for having NLers pay double their current rates just to try to sell MRF juice.

      Look... this dilemma is just a tad more complex than to suggest that it can be successfully addressed by invoking the morrow of some "little child's story" that no one has ever heard of. To offer up such rambling, meandering response peppered throughout with so many impractical and hypothetical musings does nothing to address the original question in any enlightening manner. In fact, it unfortunately serves only to further muddy the waters.

      But thanks for trying anyway.

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    3. 1.Electric LeaF, Nissan , range 132 Miles , about 30-35,000.00? at 10 cent a kwh , about 2 dollars from St johns to Spaniards Bay, and if 5 cent rates, that is 1.00 for electricity. New model for 2019 having 200 mile range. I expect to have one, maybe before the govn promotes them.
      2. Norway has 40 % of new vehicles all electric, and they much further north than Nfld
      3. Canada,and NL, per person has bigger GHG footprint than any country you mention. Maybeyou drive a 4 wheel drive pickup as standard use, for your hobbies?
      4. If we have to pay for the boondoggle anyway, why not use it where possible for the good. And higher rates can be offset some by CDM.
      5 No one ever heard of the kid wanting "something hot as summer and as cold as winter"? Suggests your young age and immaturity maybe? Bet AJ knows of it.
      4.Your question how can CDM and selling more power not be contradictory.
      They are not, as explained, that even a child should understand. Not to say this is easy to do, and rather proves how stupid to go with MFs and now have to go for this simple yet somewhat complicated process, which may be the best of bad choices we now face. If you have a better answer to the problem , share it with UG. Maybe Synapse will hire you?
      Winston

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    4. "A very spoiled and apparent bored king orders his cooks to create a special treat as hot as summer and as cold as winter. The king rejects the best efforts of the royal chefs, and offers a rich reward to anyone who produces such a delicacy. People come from far and wide. The wisest and shrewdest in the land present their finest exotic concoctions. All are rejected as lacking enough heat or the teeth- chattering coldness the king desires. Finally, a young boy brings ice cream with hot fudge sauce, which proves to be the perfect solution... and the hot fudge sundae is born".
      By Garr, sounds much like a cold climate minisplit, my solution offered to Dunderdale in 2012. Cold in summer (air conditioning), and hot in winter (heat pump mode). If we had a king, I might get an award? But I got the shaft, much like Bruno,and others, as a MF naysayer.
      Winston

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    5. Much like Bruno and Bruneau (Steve)and others....
      WA

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    6. Yeah the UK is further north than NL too, but like parts of Norway has a milder climate than NL... go figure. I'll leave it to you as a self-assignment to find out why.

      Canadian per person GHG footprints are collectively insignificant compared to collective emitters like the US China and India. That "per person" factoid is just double-speak used by those who are trying to implement a carbon tax.

      The rest of your responses I have neither the time nor inclination to address, but no matter, good luck to you anyway.

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  23. FW is alive and well but trying to eat an elephant (MFP), one bite at a time, and to continue in wedded bliss. My direction from recent posts have been to look ahead at phase 2 and 3 of Inquiry. I've gone through 2 inkjet cartridges in past 3 days. As UG has said recently, MFP and Inquiry is a marathon. There are myriad paths of information but not all readily available. UG posts have provided some segway to searching for reports and trying to find a chronological order to events. Will pass on synapse reprots, etc. but need to be brief here while, hopefully, informative:
    >Who knew what and when. SNC-Lavalin Risk Assessment of April, 2013 is in public domain. Was conducted at SNC-L expense with good intentions. Budget cost overruns were seen to be in 39% range while (at best) only 20% of project completion. If Inquiry wishes to set the stage in phase 2 regarding an aggressive, unnecessary and risky project (that should be now apparent from evidence), then, perhaps, it should start with SNC-L risk assessment and how it was handled.
    >EY Interim Report (8 April, 2016)was initiated by Liberals in December, 2015 (shorting after 2016 election) re costs and schedule of MF. It took to August, 2017 to release its assessment. Meanwhile, the $6.2 Billion budget at sanction had grown to $6.990 by June, 2014; then to $7.653 by September, 2015; then to $$9.126 by June, 2016; then to $9.396 by December, 2016; and then to $10.117 Billion by June, 2017. I digress here for a moment but, not in my 45 years was I associated with any project that did not include interest during construction, and other owner's cost associated with it. The full number should be used. So, the $6.2 Billion at sanction is actually about $7.4 Billion from Inquiry; and the $10.2 Billion is actually about $12.7 Billion.
    >Gov-NL did initiate some of the recommendations from EY 2017 Report. The CEO and Board of Nalcor changed in 2016. So, the Oversight Committee were most keen on diligence with the Liberals as government. Its September, 2018 report (available in public domain) shows in brief: no change from June, 2017 budget of $10.1 Billion that I will call about $13.0 billion sitting on about $0.3 Billion contingency to completion. A caution to remember that forecasts (although more carefully scrutinized) are coming from Nalcor. As to schedule, OC says reservoir impoundment will be complete by September, 2019; first power from MF by October, 2019; and full power by August, 2020.
    > My very personal opinion, while not an expert. Still many risks re suppliers of goods and services and contract issues. Who knows how water management agreements and related political maneuvers will play out?
    > Finally. I wish to recognize the role that UG has played in this marathon over the years. It has been trying but the grit is still in front of us. I am disappointed in the lethargic and very little reactionary involvement of many distinguished and informed citizens of NL, not to stand up and be counted in this issue. That is largely why it happened.

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