FUREY’S ELECTION CLAIM NOT A “MODEL” OF HONESTY

Premier’s Furey’s claim that he had a window of opportunity to call a General Election when “the (Covid) numbers were low” and that “no one could have predicted the outbreak that occurred” simply does not square with the facts.

The two leaders of the Opposition and the media are right in calling on the Premier to release the probabilistic modelling data “from different jurisdictions” that he says helped him make the call. 

At this point, the issue is less about an ill-timed election than it is about the Premier’s integrity. Furey could have said that the Covid numbers in this province were low – and they were – and that he took a gamble - and lost the bet. That is not what he claims, however. He has  fabricated an argument around evidence of “modelling” for which no known agency has claimed ownership. The knock-on implications of his assertion should not be dismissed either.

RON PENNEY CHALLENGES THE SALE OF MILE ONE

 Guest Post by Ron Penney

“If something seems to be good to be true, it usually is.” 

The Sale of Mile One. 

I’ve been following with interest the continuing war of words between Dean MacDonald and the City about his wish to “purchase” Mile One, add additions to the building, and eliminate the public subsidy. 

I’ve been often asked about my thoughts on this given my involvement with the building of Mile One and the Convention Centre and its operations, during my tenure as the City Manager with the City of St. John’s. 

Most people think that the sale of Mile One is a no-brainer. What’s not to like about it? Getting rid of a “white elephant”, eliminating the subsidy and revitalizing the building. Who could be opposed to that? As I will demonstrate it is a lot more complicated than it appears at first and it shouldn’t be sold. 

WOMEN AND CHILDREN FIRST

WOMEN AND CHILDREN FIRST

Maritime tradition points the way
To vaccine priorities in our day,
Long-covid threats to be nursed:
Save the women and children first!

Those that tend and care and treat
And serve the sick in noble feat -
Selfless work earns approbation,
Should top a list for vaccination.

Politicians, bureaucrats, very last,
That let the covid spread to cast
Its pall upon earth’s population
With ignorance and obfuscation.

THE "MYTH" OF DEFICIT (It's "reality" PERT can't face)

Hark! The People’s Economic Recovery Team (PERT) have spoken. This is the self-styled group of academics, labour organizations and non-profits who present themselves as an “alternative” to Moya Greene’s economic recovery committee. Based on news reports, they are supported not just by the Federation of Labour, but also by the doyen of moonlighting consultants, the Memorial University of Newfoundland Faculty Association (MUNFA).

PERT does their group — and the Province — a disservice, having delivered what amounts to a "tract" on taxation that doesn't even reflect the details contained in the Budget Estimates. PERT states: "The premier has noted that (the deficit is) about $800 million; others have put it at about $1 billion." This is their idea of research? Furey might have said that the deficit is $300 million, had it helped win the election. Presumably PERT would have agreed. 

The correct figure is $1.84 billion. A group ostensibly engaged in research can't even open up the "Budget Estimates". 

An Election in the time of Covid: Is a special ballot election legal and legitimate?

Guest Post by Ron Penney

For part of my public service career I drafted legislation for a living. It sounds boring I know,  but it has proven very useful as I learned how to draft a statute and also how to read one. Not something we were taught in Law School. 

In my younger years I participated in elections as a campaign manager, all successful I might add! So I learned the practical side of elections and election law. I also participated in the famous judicial recount in 1971 when it was discovered that the ballot box for Sally’s Cove contained no ballots, as it turned out that in accordance with local tradition they had been burned! 

The 1971 election had lots of interesting twists and turns and the 2021 one has already had them even before the votes have been cast and results announced. 

The resurgence of the virus just before the election date is the proximate cause of the election delay and the change of voting methods but the risk was always there. Should it have been anticipated as a possible impediment to the holding of an election and should have there been contingency plans.  The answer has to be yes. 

OF TWITTER, VIRTUE WORSHIP AND CABIN FEVER

Cabin fever is consuming the Province. The latest manifestation is on social media, and the Chief Medical Officer of Health acknowledges, dozens of people are sending her gifts. Some propose that a street should be named in her honor. Some call this virtue worship.

Dr. Janice Fitzgerald is a busy gal to be sure and we should applaud her work - and those who support it – but I find myself in the group that will let time and perspective evaluate the enduring contributions of society’s presumptively worthy.

The idea of virtue worship, the unwavering belief in and an unquestioning reverence for authority figures, was something to which I gave mental notice recently. It happened as I took a hard right at the bottom of “Danny Way”, the stark empty landscape confirmation that I had either come face to face with prophesy or landed in a place reserved for Mars' Perseverance. Worryingly, I reversed and drove in the other direction; my intended destination, the site of COVID-19 testing, was situated a little to the east.

The Variant and the Election: throwing the Chief Electoral Officer under the bus.

 Guest Post by Ron Penney

The announcement on Friday night that we now have the UK variant has certainly got our attention. It is much more contagious, and contrary to what was said at the press conference announcing the arrival of the UK variant, it is also likely more virulent and may have an increase in mortality of 35%. 

This is a serious escalation in the pandemic and it did not need to happen. 

It is only recently that we have started to use rapid tests. Nova Scotia has been using those tests for months to gauge community spread. If we had followed their example we would have likely identified community spread much earlier and taken the appropriate public health measures also much earlier and likely nipped this in the bud, instead of being in the situation where we find ourselves now. As a result NS has 14 active cases and we have 338. 

We had cases over two weeks ago which were of unknown origin. That was the time to have gone to level 5. 

MORE "INCIDENTS" ON LIL PILE ON COSTS AND POWER INSECURITY

A new “Major Incident Announcement”, reported internally at Nalcor and, otherwise to the PUB, reports additional damages to the Labrador Island Link transmission line (TL). It stated that “While conducting repairs to the electrode on conductor 1…the electrode conductor 2 broke and fell to the ground.” The Report is dated 02/07/2021. It also states that during the operation, pieces of ice fell to the ground “in the vicinity of employees” causing work to be stopped pending an “evaluation” and preparation of a “safe return to work plan.” (Nalcor should clarify if this was the incident that occurred on February 3, 2021 so that the public can see how many of those incidents have occurred and when.)

Nalcor’s reported an earlier January 11, 2021 incident, made to a select mailing list, about damages on 8 towers (the electrode cross arm circled in red in the picture below is reported by Nalcor as the location of the damage on the towers . We now learn from the Liberty Report for the PUB that "16 areas have been identified as experiencing electrode line conductor damage..."

Multiple engineers have confirmed for the Uncle Gnarley Blog that the damages from icing on the LIL are far more serious than Nalcor admits.

PREMIER FUREY MUST ASK TO POSTPONE THE ELECTION

Dr. Fitzgerald’s body language did not betray her when she shuttered most of the Province’s economy for the second time on Wednesday. Her demeanor and countenance suggested that she had just endured the kind of pushback from the politicos on the 8^th Floor that lets you know “doing the right thing” is not easy especially during an Election; she might have still been feeling the bruising. She was probably thinking, too, of the unwise Premier sitting six feet away and of the arrogance required to play Russian roulette in a pandemic.

Where have we seen it before? Danny Williams and Kathy Dunderdale come to mind; too smart by half, a pair of Wiley Coyotes so full of themselves seeking political advantage by crushing common sense. Premier Furey’s manoeuver – too slick by half - now sees him looking down the wrong end of the gun.

If it was only about winning an election, a healthy society and economy would work its way through one more dalliance with “amateur hour” he exhibits. We have certainly seen this before: Danny, Kathy, Tom, Paul and Dwight have not defeated this place, even if they have given it a good shot.

A FOOL'S PARADISE

 Guest Post by Ron Penney

In my recent guest blog, the Timing of the Next Provincial Election, I urged Premier Furey to await Dame Moya Greene’s interim report, due at the end of February, and her final report due at the of April, before calling an election. 

Not surprisingly, that advice was ignored and the resulting campaign is exactly what I had worried about. One conducted in total denial of the reality of our situation. 

As former Premier Smallwood used to say, “the first job of a politician is to get elected, the second job of a politician is to get elected, and the third job of a politician is to get elected.” You get the point. 

Premier Furey, while a political novice, has taken this to heart, with advice no doubt from a certain former Premier considerably more experienced than him in running successful campaigns.