TOP TEN 2015 POSTS (PLUS EDITOR'S PICKS),

1. THE PHOTOS NALCOR DON'T WANT YOU TO SEE

(Photo essay, Muskrat Falls Integrated Cover System (the “Dome”) reduced to loads of junk     
steel. The Dome was the brain child of Astaldi. Most of which was never used. $120 million    
was budgeted plus the cost of demolition and removal. The steel was hidden in the back 
woods of Happy Valley-Goose Bay - but not away from the camera ready sleuths who thought the 
public might want to see how their money is being wasted.)  

2. DONNY DUNPHY: ANYTHING LESS THAN A JUDICIAL INQUIRY IS   

    UNACCEPTABLE 
(The title says it all.)

3. ENGINEERS BREAK SILENCE ON PROBLEMS AT MUSKRAT FALLS 
(A group of professional engineers, connected with the Muskrat Falls project, weigh in on how they   would “fix” the problem of “slippage” and address increasing cost overruns and other issues.  
These engineers were “at their wits end” over how the project is managed.)

PREMIER BALL RIGHT TO CALL FOR HUMBER VALLEY PAVING INQUIRY

Guest Post Written by Ches Crosbie

Newly installed Premier Dwight Ball went on record back in 2014, saying he wanted to see a judicial inquiry called into the Humber Valley Paving debacle.  And reassuringly, in December 2015, upon being sworn in as Premier, he issued a mandate letter to his new Minister of Justice instructing him to call an inquiry into the Humber Valley Paving “situation”. 

The deeply troubling spectacle of  Humber Valley Paving saw the Department of Transportation forgive Frank Coleman and his paving company up to $20 million in contracting liabilities, and release two bonds in the same amount, as Coleman was about to become the Danny Williams-anointed (and unopposed) candidate for the PC Party leadership and premiership of Newfoundland and Labrador. 

THE LIBERALS AND THE ODOUR OF AMATEUR

Supporters of the Newfoundland and Labrador Liberal Party must be shaking their heads in disbelief at the political naivety witnessed during the first few days of the Dwight Ball Administration.

Most have to be wondering, between the Premier, the Ministers of Natural Resources and Finance, and the Premier’s Chief of Staff, if there is a single political neuron in the “on” position.

I have never witnessed the likes of it.

But I have a scenario of what occurred in the early hours of the new Administration; one, I think, worth sharing:

NOTES - MORNING SHOW INTERVIEW WITH ANTHONY GERMAIN

Notes - CBC Morning Show Interview, December 22, 2015

            Host: Anthony Germain

E&Y Review not a Review of Muskrat Falls project.

·       Not conducted because people in NL are concerned about cost overruns, or that they might have to sacrifice programs and services.

·       THIS IS ABOUT “comfort” for Bond Rating Agencies, given the amount of borrowing to be conducted.  About Opening the tap on maximum debt....

·       The Government wants to be sure it can borrow all the money Nalcor needs, not whether the project is managed by competent people or whether it makes financial sense. 

DISINGENUOUS OR DUMB (OR BOTH): EARLY DAYS OF THE NEW LIBERAL GOVERNMENT

Perhaps, it is too early to begin any assessment of the new Liberal Administration. While there have been no obvious faux pas, as in the first moments after Paul Davis’ Swearing-In ceremony, the Liberals’ transition from Official Opposition status has not been flawless.

It was a sound idea for the new Minister of Justice, Andrew Parsons, to announce the Government would proceed with inquiries into the Don Dunphy shooting, the Burton Winters case, and the Humber Valley Paving affair. 

Yet the reservations the Minister stated regarding their cost, and the resources available to conduct them, seemed ill-suited to their gravitas. Indeed, the cost of all three inquiries likely would not equate with cost overruns at Muskrat Falls for a single hour.

Had not the Minister weighed the paramountcy of these long held commitments against the arbitrary and possibly corrupt decisions of the previous administration?

The Premier, as do many people, must have thought that a politicians’ knowledge is absorbed through a process known as osmosis. Given the Province’s dire fiscal situation, I thought he would stay mum until he had fully digested our fiscal status.

"NORTH SPUR IN A NUTSHELL" A CALL TO ACTION BY CANADIAN HYDRO ENGINEER

Introduction

“North Spur in a Nutshell” is an outstanding piece of work, not just for its conclusions, but also for the clear, evidence based call to action the analysis contains. 

The Quick Clay stability problem is described in the chillingly objective style of an engineer all too familiar with difficult, potentially costly, and project-threatening problems.

In this Piece, just released to the Uncle Gnarley Blog, the renowned Canadian engineer, James L. Gordon, reduces the problem to terms any layperson can understand.

And James.L.Gordon, P. Eng. (Retired), is no ordinary engineer.

FINANCE MINISTER TO MEET FISCAL FREIGHT TRAIN

The government has a huge deficit and debt problem; one surely to shake the Liberal Government out of the pretense everything is fine; it was just those damn Tories.

Even the most rudimentary briefing note prepared by the Ministry will demonstrate how unrealistic (silly) were the Liberals’ Red Book promises; at least, the ones with financial implications.

While the results of the November 30^th General Election ended Premier Davis’ own brief “fantasy”, fiscal reality will hit the new Administration like a freight train.

The Liberals have nowhere to hide.

PREMIER BALL: ADVICE FOR THE FIRST 100 DAYS

Guest Post Written by "JM"

The first 100 days is a time when a new leader will implement their vision and strategy for the organization they are about lead.  It has become part of “leadership culture” with countless books and articles written on the subject.  But the concept originates from Franklin Roosevelt’s first term as president when, after taking a resounding victory over Hubert Hoover, he inherited a country in a deep economic depression. 

The concept of the “first 100 days” is simple; a leader must quickly implement their strategy in a clear and demonstrable manner when their authority and mandate is the strongest.  Roosevelt’s actions in his first 100 days of office set the scene for the gradual recovery of the US economy from the Great Depression.

Although it is not strictly fair to compare our present day economy to the great depression, the current downturn in the oil economy is accelerating the financial crisis in Newfoundland and Labrador. 

BEWARE A CHILL IN THE POLITICAL WIND THAT BLEW IN THE LIBERALS

The two cousins of conversation, politics and weather, seemed to converge for Monday’s vote as the wind that blew the Liberals into power possessed a bite that may be felt for a long time.  

Disenchantment with the Tories ought to have caused the popular vote to soar when the biggest surprise of the night was that it declined.

Even the Liberal sweep the Polls had forecast, found the mechanism of reverse polarity the very instant the Party had something to say.

The idea of saving $380 million without costing a public service job contained the logic of a former a former Premier promoting hydro at a New England Governors Conference.

JUDGEMENT DAY FOLLOWS FOUR YEARS OF AMATEUR HOUR

I have always found voting day invigorating, reassuring, and a source of pride.

There is something unmistakably dignified about civil society exercising its right of self-determination, bringing change to democratic government. It is impossible not to think how lucky we are the process is conducted peacefully and within the rules of a constitution which receives almost unanimity.  

Yet, it has been a long four years. Public exasperation with recent Administrations is palpable.

Poll results, social media, and radio talk shows seem to confirm that the Tories have rubbed raw every fiber that constitutes our collective patience.

Likely, that is why evidence exists of a persistent and unveiled determination to put an incompetent regime out of its misery, and out of our sight. This time ‘round even those who are normally careful to reveal their voting intentions don't bother.

DAVIS, BALL AND McCURDY: PRISONERS OF THEIR OWN DECEPTION

Premier Davis has belatedly taken aim at Liberal Leader Dwight Ball suggesting his spending plans, and his approach to finding savings, are a fantasy. 

This kind of speak is tantamount to one drunken sailor accusing another drunken sailor of not being drunk enough.

Davis doesn't credit Dwight Ball with having adopted the “Wiseman Plan”.

That’s the approach to Budget making devised by his Tory Finance Minister Ross Wiseman. It is based less upon economic fundamentals than upon “hope”.

Hope is important to be sure, but it does not influence the direction of oil prices. Nor is hope something against which we can underwrite health care services or education. Hope is not a “bankable” commodity. It would be like applying Tina Olivero’s approach to the Budget: it’s mostly attitude. The rest is in the water.

THIRD COVER-UP EXPOSED: THIS TIME VIRGINIA PARK ELEMENTARY

Politicians can’t seem to figure out, like other people, that public servants, like other people, are offended when the political leadership fails to tell the truth.

No one likes “cover up”.

Some readers may remember the recent assertion, by the Minister of Transportation and Works, that the discovery of the fuselage of an old military airplane was responsible for the increased cost and delay to the new Virginia Park School Elementary School.

The CBC reported: “Brazil said that safely removing the airplane required a lot of time and an additional $6 million….securing the extra funding also held up the process.” Other media gave similar reports.

David Brazil would have us believe he was working hard to expose the former Fort Pepperell army dump site. He was actually trying to bury a significant cost to the public purse, knowledge of which he preferred people stayed ignorant.

MUSKRAT FALLS NO HOOVER DAM

Guest Post written by Ron Penney

Premier Davis has recently compared Muskrat Falls with the Hoover Dam project.

The Hoover Dam is one of the wonders of the modern world.

It was constructed during the Great Depression and came in under budget and two years ahead of schedule.

It cost $219 million dollars (Canadian), which is equivalent to $3.3 billion dollars today. Its capacity is 2000 megawatts.

In contrast, the Muskrat Falls project is almost 50% over budget, nearing $10 billion, and rising, and its capacity is 824 megawatts. And it is well behind schedule.

So the Muskrat Falls project is at least three times the cost of the Hoover Dam for less than half the power.

WATERFORD VALLEY HIGH: $100/HOUR GETS WORK COMPLETED

Faced with having to admit “cover-up” at Waterford Valley High, the Department of Transportation and Works asked the contractor to accelerate installation of the lateral steel supports which were overlooked during the construction of the School.

Double overtime, nearly $100.00 per hour, was the incentive for workers to work longer hours.

Originally, Government was prepared to continue to let the School operate until Christmas, even though the building failed to meet National Building Code standards. The disclosure of this second “cover-up”, the first occurred at Roncalli, caused the work to be rushed. As a result, the final lateral support was installed at the end of last week.

This should not be the end of the matter.

TRANSPARENCY: LIBERALS FAR TOO SHORT ON DETAILS

Barring a catastrophe, the Liberals will win a landslide victory on November 30^th. 

It would be a fine tribute to “Her Majesty’s Loyal Opposition” if this outcome could be attributed to their advocacy of good governance.  Sadly, no such claim can be made.

Could that be why a review of the “Red Book’s” contents reveals few ideas for how the Liberals might run the processes of government better than did the Tories?

Ball may bristle at suggestions the Tories are the sole authors of their demise; but the facts don’t help him much.

Ed Hollett’s Blog, The Sir Robert Bond Papers, recently offered an excellent review of Tory blunders. I suggest the seeds of public discontent predate even his enumeration of what brought them down.

It is good to remember that Premier Dunderdale’s banishment culminated with her stumbles during DARKNL. They did not begin there. The removal of the PUB from the Muskrat Falls review, Bill 29, and her own incoherent logic, won her no friends.

THE DIRTY NINETEEN

Guest Post written by "Agent 13"

We have all heard of “The Dirty Dozen”, the D-day British pre-invasion team, glorified in the 1967 film, of the same name.  The “Dirty Nineteen” are nothing like them and have earned no glory.

Let me introduce them.

Back in June 14^th 2012, the Provincial PC Government was in the final stages of voting on Bill 29. The Bill amended the province’s access to information legislation.  The changes constituted a massive step backwards for democracy, having permitted a level of governmental secrecy never before seen in Newfoundland and Labrador or Canada.

Much of the secrecy around the Muskrat Falls Project was afforded by these amendments.

WATERFORD VALLEY HIGH: RELEASE CERTIFICATE OF STRUCTURAL ENGINEER, NOW!

A Department of Transportation and Works spokesperson told VOCM on Thursday, November 5, 2015 that “the walls within Waterford Valley High that need further supports are walls between classrooms, and says there are no issues on the walls that provide the main structural integrity of the building.” (underline added)

The Spokesperson was commenting on Uncle Gnarley Blog’s exposure of a cover up of structural deficiencies in a second St. John’s school; this time the new Waterford Valley High.

But a highly experienced engineer, who advised me on this file, says the Department of Transportation and Works is downplaying an important structural issue. 

WATERFORD VALLEY HIGH: ANOTHER "COVER-UP"

Wall supports lay in the parking lot of Waterford Valley High
awaiting installation

When NLESD chief, Darrin Pike, gave a tour on September 3^rd, 2015 to Premier Paul Davis, the cabinet, and community members, the brand new $38 million Waterford Valley High School was not ready for occupancy.

But the 800 students of the school and their teachers were permitted to start classes anyway in early September. They could not have known a “cover-up” was underway.

The contractor had failed to install steel wall supports which were part of the structural steel package necessary to warrant a “sign-off” from the structural engineer.

RONCALLI REVISITED: MORE SHOCKING REVELATIONS

COVER-UP AT RONCALLI SCHOOL  posted on this Blog August 31, 2015 was, regretfully, not followed up by a demand, from any quarter, for an independent investigation.

At issue wasn’t only the “cover-up” but “what” was being covered up.

I had hoped keen questions would be asked; that the authorities would be required to show proof newly constructed walls of the school were structurally sound.

Received was just rhetoric from the Minister of Transportation and Works.

But two informants contacted me, following publication of the item, with important information; both were familiar with the incident. One was a worker on the construction site; the other a professional person.

The information prompted three requests under Access to Information legislation, known as ATTIP. A new request was made to the Department of Transportation and Works, and first time requests were placed at the Newfoundland and Labrador English Language School District (NLESD), and ServiceNL.

I wanted the answers to two fundamental questions:

TESTIMONY AT THE PAC: SENIOR PUBLIC SERVICE HAS SEEN BETTER DAYS

Last week’s meeting of the Public Accounts Committee (PAC), which did little more than allow a few questions to be raised about the Humber Valley Paving affair (HVP), featured former Transportation and Works Minister, Nick McGrath, the Clerk of the Executive Council, Julia Mullaley, and the former Deputy Minister of Transportation and Works, Brent Meade.

Following their testimony, the public might have been left with the impression the claim, by Premier Tom Marshall, that he was not informed of the Minister’s intention to cancel the HVP contract, was all one big misunderstanding.  

We are left to consider that the unwarranted assumption by Meade was just an error; that we should not consider if he was providing a fig leaf to Premier Marshall, or whether senior public servants have rules for protecting themselves against arrant Ministers.

I suggest you not make any such assumptions.

$600 MILLION A PINCH: CHANGE THE ONLY TOURNIQUET FOR MUSKRAT

A better Nalcor CEO would tell us what he plans to do differently

The one certainty about Ed Martin’s demand for another $600 million for Muskrat Falls is that it will be repeated, over and over.

JM has written, on this Blog, that Nalcor will have to work hard to keep the final cost below $10 billion. 

A senior Nalcor engineer offered the prediction, more than two years ago, that the final cost will come in around 2.5 times the DG-2 estimate of $5 billion. That’s $12.5 billion.  It’s a scary number. He knows a thing or two about large projects.

Proof of the financial hole being dug at Muskrat is found not just in the third party analysis conducted by JM and James L. Gordon; it is implicit in what Ed Martin did not say. We will come to that in a moment. But, first, to James Gordon and JM.

BANISHING AN UNWANTED PM OFFERS (LIMITED) REWARD

Monday night’s election, which made Justin Trudeau Prime Minister-elect, should serve as a reminder to all elected governments that the public will sink their ship if they persist on the wrong course.

Every citizen isn’t a policy wonk or a political junkie, but the collective has a way of understanding when they are being led astray.

Of course, the problem wasn’t just policy; it was about tone, too.

Throughout Canada, Stephen Harper grated on our collective nervous system; like a rusty hinge on an old gate, he became more aggravating at every turn. The Senate, corruption in the PMO, the restriction of rights in favour of imagined security threats, an abuse of Parliament, and the contradictions that accompany ‘tough on crime, tough on drugs’ as he kisses up to Ford Nation.

He had to go.

I AM NOT INTERESTED IN HARPER'S CANADA

If consistency in public opinion polls means anything, it would appear Canada is ready to give PM Stephen Harper the boot.

The Country needs a new Prime Minister. This one does not suit the Canada most of us have come to know.

Harper needs to go, not because Danny Williams’ jingoistic rants are deemed, by some, superior to his, or even because Harper’s Administration is deemed to have treated NL poorly.  

He needs to go for even larger and more fundamental reasons.

Harper is a corrosive, even divisive force for an entire Country; a man who subscribes to a value system claimed by a narrow far right, narrow-minded, bigoted, some outwardly racist, and reactionary constituency. This is not a group preoccupied with tolerance, generosity, or the nuances of a liberal democracy.

Harper is not just an irritation in NL; he is a blight on the entire nation.

CAPTURED BY A RIVER DAMNED (A PHOTO ESSAY)

If a paddling expedition down the Churchill River is on your bucket list you may get a lot more than you have bargained for.   

Get ready to enter a vast ecosystem; one that will challenge your thinking as it refreshes your spirit.    

The river is still known as Mishtashipu by Innu, and not surprisingly, Grand River by NunatuKavut, Nunatsiavut, and the settlers of Labrador.  The nomenclature was given Sir Charles Hamilton for a time until Smallwood changed it to Churchill; a sop to Sir Winston.The award was inappropriate for a god let alone a single man.

An endless valley rises to mountains of trees and sky. The river, in relentless pursuit of ocean is, seemingly, given rest only at Lake Winokapau, 40 km. long and up to 760 feet deep.

The body of water is large enough to bring 80 km. of current to a stand-still. Little wonder the river valley eludes any definition, except vastness, or resists any quick appraisal of its own magnificence.

Looking up river, it is often hard to look away especially when the artistry is punctuated by a sun cast light, amidst a seamless palette of reflection.

The Churchill won’t just let you just admire its tapestry, even when the sky displays an artist’s touch on a fabric of grey blue and silver. 

ED MARTIN - THE JIG IS UP

Guest Post Written by "JM"

The release of the Government’s most recent oversight report exposes the extent to which the Muskrat Falls project is in trouble.   

With every slipping milestone, and changing cost estimate, the credibility of Nalcor’s leadership is being questioned, too.   

Both Pam Frampton at the Telegram  and the CBC’s Azzo Rezori  penned excellent columns this past weekend,  as did Russell Wangersky on Monday, which documented clear frustration with Nalcor’s ability to obfuscate the real truth on the project’s status. 

The delay to the project cannot be hidden.  One has to look no further than to the pictures of the site, 3 years into construction, to truly understand the extent of work that awaits completion. 

MUSKRAT SCHEDULE IN JEOPARDY SAYS HYDRO EXPERT

Guest Post Written by Cabot Martin

James L Gordon, like many hydro engineers all across Canada, is fascinated by the ins and outs of the Muskrat Falls project.

His latest observations to me focus on the four reports issued to date by the Oversight Committee on Nalcor’s performance as compared to their Project Schedule.

To help us understand this issue he has prepared the chart below. The lines show Nalcor’s planned schedule (and completion date) as compared to the actual schedule (and completion date) which will probably be achieved based on these reports.

It shows, as expected, slower progress in the 5 winter months than in the 7 summer months.

Although he terms this analysis very preliminary, it’s certainly the best analysis we have in the public domain. He notes that the progress is calculated at 0.73% per month for the 5 winter months, and 1.66% per month for the 7 summer months.

MUSKRAT FALLS: REPORTERS HAVE TO DO BETTER

The announcement by Ed Martin, interjected on day two of a “Show N’ Tell” on the Muskrat Falls construction site, is another in a long series of re-runs in which public information is treated as a game, and reporters as dolts.

The $600 million overrun didn’t even warrant the Premier’s presence, confirming who is in charge. The best Davis could muster, later, is a comment that he still “believes” in the project; as if dumb “belief” cancels the worst effects of a “sinkhole”.

The Nalcor CEO Ed Martin is a seriously failed senior bureaucrat; yet, he has unfettered authority to deal with the public, and to persist with ‘spin’ as the basis of cost overruns.

The surprising part is that he hasn’t been fired; but, that is only because democracy will suffer even lesser men who can’t show him the door.

PREMIER DAVIS: NOW IS NOT THE “RIGHT TIME”

Guest Post Written By "AGENT 13"

In June 2015, Premier Davis surprised most of the attendees at the NOIA Conference held in St. John’s. How? By stating that the provincial government and STATOIL may be only weeks away from finalizing the “term sheet” on the Bay du Nord field, a massive oil discovery located on the Flemish Pass.

At that time, the Premier indicated that the provincial government was on a path of negotiations to have the “term sheet” finalized, but that he would not commit to having it completed before the general election.

Then, last week Deputy Premier Steve Kent was asked about the status of the “term sheet” negotiations.  He stated his understanding it was very close and we would likely be hearing from the Minister of Natural Resources and the Premier in the coming weeks.

The question that must be asked is this: “Which party to the negotiations would benefit the most by finalizing the “term sheet” now, so close to a general election?”

DAN CRUMMELL: THE PEOPLE OF MUD LAKE AWAIT YOUR ANSWER.

Guest Post written by Cabot Martin

My letter of September 11, 2015 to Minister Dan Crummell, on the perils of a North Spur collapse to workers both on the Spur and at the powerhouse site across the river, to downstream residents and to provincial finances alike has, so far, gone unanswered. Perhaps, that is not surprising. Despite the urgent nature of the matter, in the past he has usually taken about a month to reply.

One point not fully covered in my letter concerns the technical analysis on which Nalcor has based its “There’s no problem with the North Spur“ position. Seemingly, it has been adopted without critical analysis by Mr. Crummell.

NOTE TO LIBERAL CAUCUS: THANKS FOR NOTHING!

The Davis Government will go into the next election battered and bruised, ready only for the re-cycling bin.

No credit for this political train wreck is due to the astute oversight, vigilance, or to the insights of the Official Opposition.

While the Liberals stayed under everyone’s political radar, the Tories simply wore through the patience of most decent people, all on their own.

Bill 29 was only the beginning.

A trail of secrecy, misinformation, and deceit presaged the sanctioning of the Muskrat Falls project.

For the Liberal Party’s efforts to expose the sad underbelly of that project, we would say: thanks for nothing.

DOUBLE TROUBLE IF NORTH SPUR COLLAPSES

Guest Post Written by Cabot Martin

Minister's August 26, 2015 Letter Confirms James L. Gordon's Concerns

The attempt to bring some clarity to the North Spur landslide issue seems to be making headway – if in a very disturbing way.

Attached is a letter from Minister Dan Crummell (Minister responsible for Dam Safety) dated August 26, 2015 in answer to my letter to him of August 7,2015 together with my reply of September 11, 2015 to the Minister's latest letter. (Both letters are shown below.)

While this letter exchange with the Minister involves some pretty technical matters, this should not deflect us from the conclusion that an independent, engineering-based and technically competent review is needed. My latest letter closes with a call for a “Hydro Review Board” that would do just that.

WILL ONLY THE INNOCENT BE PUNISHED?

Recently, I received some comments in an email from a person who served at a senior level both in government and international industry.  I was pleased that he was maintaining a watchful eye on the Muskrat Falls project, especially the plethora of self-justifying utterances from the Nalcor CEO.   Likely, he had read Ed Martin's remarks to reporters during a scrum on July 14^th, too; and felt nauseous along with many others.

Certainly he had heard enough.

The following formed part of his narrative:

“In the course of a large project in which I was involved many years ago, the (concept of) "Six phases of a big project" was brought forward to keep us from becoming too cocky.In the years which followed, I have found this reference to be both useful and often true.

COVER-UP AT RONCALLI SCHOOL

Was there a conscious and deliberate decision taken, in 2014, to cover up an incident involving the collapse of a cinder block wall at Roncalli School?

Who knew of the incident? And who took the decision to bury the issue?

These questions are just a beginning.

Who would argue safety at a school is an imperative?

It seems not everyone.

The provincial government chose to permit Roncalli School, located in the Airport Heights area of St. John’s, to continue to function even as it underwent reconstruction on a piecemeal basis.  

Roncalli became a school and a construction zone at the same time. That decision held inherent risks, and not just with respect to the additional cost of carrying on a major construction project on an occupied premises.

The risk of combining two incompatible activities demanded the highest possible safety standard for the 410 students enrolled K to Grade 6, distributed throughout 21 classrooms; the statistics provided on the School’s web site. 

DAM BREAK STUDY NEEDS REVISION: HYDRO EXPERT

Guest Post written by Cabot Martin:

For over a year now, I have been privileged to have the advice of Jim Gordon on the North Spur issue at Muskrat Falls via long phone calls and countless emails – when I have cited him, I’ve usually referred  to him simply as a “very experienced retired hydro engineer” –

Mr. Gordon is, in fact, one of Canada’s most pre-eminent Hydro Engineers.

A graduate in civil engineering from Aberdeen University (First Class Honours), he retains his no nonsense Scottish roots.

His bio reads well.

Only Canadian chosen by the prestigious UK based  International Water Power & Dam Construction Magazine’s as one of the world’s top 60 hydro engineers from 1949 to 2009.

Winner of the ultra-prestigious Rickey Medal by the American Society of Civil Engineers; recipient of a Distinguished Service Award by the Canadian Electrical Association.

Worked on the development of the Gull Island site on the Lower Churchill in the 1970’s.

ED MARTIN PLAYS THE 100 YEAR CARD WITH REPORTERS

(CAUTION: WORDS LIKE BULLSHIT, BLATHER, AND BOMBAST USED)

The master of spin, Nalcor CEO Ed Martin, should be weary of his own storytelling. But, when even reporters offer no interruption, I guess he just can’t help himself.

It’s the kind of stuff that makes your teeth grind because, intuitively, you know that Muskrat Falls, at $10-12 billion, will be reported as just an innocuous detail; reporters will never note their failure to challenge the blather (or the decisions) of officials like him.

Recently (July 14^th) Ed Martin toured the Muskrat Falls site with some of the provincial Premiers.  The CEO told a media "scrum” he can’t guarantee the project will generate first power by 2017 as scheduled, or if it will meet budget targets.

The statement contained uncharacteristic bluntness for one who never wastes an opportunity to ‘gild the lily’. But, alas, the slip was deliberate; the sad state of the project is beyond plausible deniability, even for Ed Martin. 

The CEO had come to Labrador to be praised, not pilloried; reporters had plenty of evidence to upbraid Nalcor's man but chose to leave his self-praise unedited. 

CONFUSED MINISTER AND A CANADIAN SOLUTION FOR NORTH SPUR

Cabot Martin and his geotechnical engineering advisors are at odds with the Minister of Environment and Conservation, Dan Crummell, on some pretty important issues. I have briefly summarized two of them here, but readers are offered full access to the documents via the links provided below.

The two issues mentioned are:

a)      The Minister claims Nalcor Energy has conducted a proper risk assessment of geotechnical conditions at the North Spur. In his July 30^th 2015 reply to Cabot Martin’s Letter of July 7^th 2015, Dan Crummell says Nalcor has conformed to the Canadian Dam Association (CDA) Dam Safety Guidelines. The advice Martin received suggests that those Guidelines are applicable to “man-made” structures. In other words, they are appropriate for the two concrete structures which will constitute the southern portion of the dam only; not for the North Spur.

b)    The dam break study which Nalcor commissioned Hatch Consultants to perform, and on which the Minister Crummell relied, is based upon arbitrary assumptions which Nalcor insisted the Study should contain.

Let’s look at those two issues more closely and consider a Paper by a Canadian engineering icon which offers a process to resolve them.

OF WIMPS, GUTTERSNIPES, AND POLTROONS

When the Liberals should be pit bulls, they are wimps.

After Tory members of the Public Accounts Committee (PAC) refused to show up for a meeting, last week, to discuss the Humber Valley Paving (HVP) affair, Liberal MHA Jim Bennett told the Telegram “the whole thing seems fishy to him…”

Some condemnation!  

And Bennett wasn’t even in the legislature where the Speaker might have ruled any provocation out of order.

A good Opposition MHA would have whipped out his thesaurus of insults, insinuations, epithets and allegations. The public would know, in the colourful language of the best parliamentarians, that the guttersnipes heading the government are weak of character as well as at the knees.

SERIOUS FLAWS REVEALED IN CRUMMELL'S LETTER ON NORTH SPUR

Guest Post Written by Cabot Martin:

LETTER FROM MINISTER CRUMMELL REVEALS SERIOUS FLAWS IN NORTH SPUR DAM BREAK STUDY

The North Spur stability issue is the single greatest Risk to the Muskrat Falls Project.

Nalcor’s handling of this Risk has been neither sufficient nor timely.

Based on informed expert opinion, it is apparent that (quite apart from downstream safety issues), a North Spur collapse could lead to the loss of the Province’s entire multi-billion investment in the Dams and Generating Facilities presently being constructed at Muskrat Falls and the full abandonment of the Muskrat Falls site.

On July 2, 2015, I wrote the Minister responsible for Dam Safety, Hon. Dan Crummell on this issue; early last week I received an answer from the Minister dated July 30^th , 2015.

In the meantime, Nalcor posted a North Spur Dam Break analysis by Hatch Consultants dated June 26,2015 on its website. 

On August 7^th, I replied to the Minister’s letter as set out below.

It points out that he is using Dam Safety Guidelines that are simply not applicable  to cases like the North Spur.

RIGHTSIZING EXPENDITURES (CONTINUED): A BUDGET COLLOQUY

Guest Post Written by JM

Rightsizing Expenditures – Where the Real Work Is Needed (Installment II of Part V)

In the first part of “Rightsizing Expenditures”, I presented the first five ideas to reduce the annual provincial budget by 10%.  This is a continuation of that post; the ideas discussed taken together, constitute an attempt to identify measures to achieve this recommended target.  As a spoiler alert I should inform you, despite all the austerity measures proposed, I was unable to achieve the 10% target.  Nevertheless, here are my additional views on the subject:

RIGHTSIZING EXPENDITURES – THE BUDGET COLLOQUY (PART V )

Guest Post Written by JM

Rightsizing Expenditures – Where the Real Work Is Needed

John Maynard Keynes is perhaps one of history’s most influential economists.  His theories regarding the requirement for state intervention to moderate the natural “boom-bust” cycle of an economy has been especially en vogue since the financial crisis of 2008.  The basic premise of the theory is that government should borrow in periods of slow economic growth (or during a period of retraction), invest in infrastructure, and then manage the economy until it is stronger.

In Newfoundland and Labrador since 2006 the government has perhaps done the opposite of what would be advocated by Keynes.  Despite a strong economy fuelled by mining and offshore developments, the Provincial government commenced in 2006 a series of programs to further stimulate the economy.  They were represented by a general increase in spending of some 35% in real dollars, tax cuts, and a series of large infrastructure developments.  The latter included the massive Muskrat Falls public works project. 

The result was that in 2012 the political leadership proudly proclaimed our economy to be “white hot”

The white hot economy was fuelled by government stimulus, which, in turn, inflated salaries, drove up project costs, and allowed housing prices to increase at a pace far outside of inflation.  It was simply not sustainable and I am deeply afraid it will have a long term negative impact on the economy.

EULOGY TO ED HEARN, Q.C. BY RICHARD CASHIN

The eulogy to Ed Hearn, Q.C., distinguished lawyer and co-founder of the 2041 Group was delivered by Richard Cashin, August 1, 2015 at the Basilica of St. John the Baptist, St. John's prior to his internment in Brigus, his birth place.

Good morning

We are here today to remember, to mourn, to honor a beloved husband, father, brother and friend.  A truly outstanding human being.

A proud son of Brigus, from a family with deep roots in our province. A graduate of Memorial and Dalhousie Law. Upon being called to the Bar he went to Labrador City – almost a pioneer in this Province’s newest and biggest source of wealth. But he was more that a competent and successful lawyer in the Province’s new frontier. In barely a decade, he had established himself as one of the bar’s most respected legal minds. He appeared before the Supreme Court of Canada in a number of significant, and in the case of the 1984 Upper Churchill Water Rights Reversion, “Historic Cases”.

COMMEMORATING THE PASSING OF 2041 GROUP CO-FOUNDER

PRESS RELEASE – July 31, 2015

2041 Group Commemorates Edward Hearn, Q.C. 1949-2015

The 2041 group has lost a co-founder and keen comrade – a young man at heart with years of clear thinking to come. We commemorate Ed’s passing. 

ENGINEERS BREAK SILENCE ON PROBLEMS AT MUSKRAT FALLS

For most engineers the execution of a megaproject is principally about the calibre of those in charge of management. Many don’t concern themselves with issues like water management, the question of whether it is a ‘political’ project, or whether the government has made a premature sanction decision. Most simply want the construction phase to benefit from the best practices of the industry and their profession.

The Muskrat Falls project is proceeding poorly; even the Nalcor CEO has been forced to admit he can’t guarantee either the schedule or the budget will be achieved.

Imagine, therefore, that you had a group of professionals weigh in on how they would “fix” the problem of “slippage” and address fundamental cost and other issues.  What do you think they might they say?

Recently, I had that opportunity; some engineers are at their wits end over how the project is managed. It was not just a theoretical exercise; they are intimately familiar with the Muskrat Falls project.